530. Is Starmer the Next Joe Biden? Rory and Alastair React to Local Elections

Summary

---

The Rest Is Politics - Episode 530

Title: Is Starmer the Next Joe Biden? Rory and Alastair React to Local Elections
Date: May 8, 2026
Hosts: Rory Stewart & Alastair Campbell

---

Episode Overview

In this urgent, live episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart unpack the seismic results and wider implications of the UK local elections—an election that, with its new voting systems in Scotland and Wales, signals potential long-term changes for British politics. The discussion zeroes in on Labour’s challenges under Keir Starmer, surging support for Reform UK, and the lessons—good and bad—from populist parties across Europe. The hosts critically debate whether Starmer is becoming a UK version of Joe Biden: embattled, underestimated, and potentially clinging to office too long.

Expect a robust analysis of populism’s rise, media complicity, party fundraising, leadership vulnerability, and possibilities for electoral reform, all rooted in the context of immediate election results and party fortunes. The conversation is punctuated by live poll feedback from their audience and candid commentary on major party leaders—including direct comparisons to recent US and European developments.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Election Landscape & Initial Reactions

• England: Immediate focus is on English results, with Labour’s poor showing a shock to the party. Rory and Alastair note the “reform surge,” with Reform UK taking roughly 25% of the vote in some areas.
  “One in four did not vote for reform. This vote does not say to me that Nigel Farage is the next Prime Minister.” – Rory Stewart [04:53]
• Wales & Scotland: Labour faces historic defeats in Wales (falling to third place in key areas) and a strong SNP leads in Scotland, though not with enough to demand an independence referendum.
  “In every single one of them, Labour was coming third behind Plaid and Reform.” – Rory Stewart [02:32]

2. The Reform Surge & Populism

• Reform UK’s success aligns with a broader European trend of hard-right parties polling at 20–30% (e.g., AfD in Germany, Le Pen in France).
• “There is quite a lot of comfort to be taken in that, because… it means that one in three out of four did not vote for Reform.” – Rory Stewart [04:53]
• The media’s role lauded: reform’s strong branding and moneyed campaign (including £5 million from crypto billionaire Chris Harborne) is scrutinized, with direct parallels drawn to Trump-era conservatism:
  “Labour have got to really, really understand... this £5 million donation wasn’t getting much coverage, but it was getting through to the public.” – Rory Stewart [07:38]

3. Money, Media, and Populist Infrastructure

• Reform’s cash advantage allows London-wide advertising blitzes, reminiscent of US political marketing.
• GB News (likened to Fox News) offers populist candidates a direct media channel.
• Labour’s delayed attempts at campaign finance reform (Rycroft review) appear reactive and too late to be credibly fair.
• Stewart and Campbell lament UK politics’ failure to match Australian reforms (compulsory voting, strict campaign finance limits). “If you’re bold and serious about this, let’s… take campaign financing and say we’re going to fix the structure.” – Rory Stewart [12:26]

4. Labour’s Crisis & Starmer’s Leadership

• Local Labour figures are furious about seat losses, with growing blame pointed at Keir Starmer.
  “A lot of Labour councillors who are losing their seats are going to feel really pissed off… and they will be blaming Keir Starmer.” – Campbell [14:54]
• Discussion pivots: Should Labour remove Starmer? Is he a “Biden figure,” unwilling to relinquish leadership despite dire warnings?
• Campbell’s assessment is scathing:
  “He’s basically in a bunker with his wife, saying, ‘It’s all going to be fine.’” – Campbell [18:45] “No matter how many speech coaches he’s got, how many new speech writers he’s got, he doesn’t know how to communicate.” – Campbell [28:33]
• Key challenge: Labour lacks a compelling story for voters, with Starmer’s team unable to project optimism or vision.
• Rory cautions against assuming a change of leader will solve everything, warning against reflexive “nothing can be worse, so let’s get rid of him” logic:
  “That’s not a strategic approach.” – Rory Stewart [22:53]

5. Alternative Leadership, Party Dynamics, and Public Mood

• If Starmer stays, can Labour recover? If not, who can carry the torch?
• Audience polling: Andy Burnham (72%) is seen as the strongest Labour successor among listeners; Farage is seen as most likely next PM by a plurality (66%) [35:07].
• Starmer is dogged by “visceral dislike” among some voters, especially in former Labour heartlands:
  “It’s become a thing to, quote, hate Keir Starmer… it’s all a negative thing against him.” – Stewart [25:47] “He doesn’t really understand my life.” – Stewart, recounting a Burnley voter [54:06]

6. Populist Tactics & Dangers

• Farage’s media insulation allows him to avoid accountability for major scandals and policy failures—just as Trump did.
• The “Vote Reform, Get Starmer Out” campaign is pure negative populism—successfully painting Starmer as the root of all problems.
• The hosts underscore the need for Labour (and other parties) to attack Reform’s true priorities and expose their billionaire backers. “It’s the job of the other parties to make sure the public understand the reality of who [Reform] are… I don’t think it’s that difficult.” – Stewart [56:26]

7. Electoral Reform, Party Pacts, and the Lib Dems

• Audience polling: 62% support a Labour-Lib Dem pact to stop Reform; the Dutch and German examples of anti-populist unity are cited [43:52].
• The Liberal Democrats’ failure to cut through the national narrative is discussed, attributed to media trivialization and a lack of bold messaging.
• The risks of Labour’s “Ming vase” cautious strategy are highlighted: now is the time for bold policy, not incrementalism. “Politics now is not just about the need for good communication. It’s the need to have big things to argue about and win the arguments.” – Stewart [46:01]

8. What Next? Optimism, Strategy, and Lessons

• Lasting improvement requires not just a change at the top, but a wholesale Cabinet and party upgrade.
• “Managing crisis” isn’t enough; Labour desperately needs to craft a positive vision, especially on growth, public services, and repairing the party’s connection to working-class and younger voters.
• Ultimately, the best way to defeat Farage and reform is to “actually improve people’s lives”:
  “The best way to defeat Farage is not just being slicker with the communication, but actually improving people’s lives, making the country better.” – Campbell [57:14]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Campbell on Starmer’s communication failures:
  “He doesn’t know how to communicate. Secondly, he’s really struggling to generate a stable team…” [28:33]

• Rory on Labour’s narrative void:
  “They’ve never done really is project to the country a sense of optimism, a sense of, we can get through this, we can do it. They say it, but…” [44:45]

• On populist leaders’ resilience:
  “Farage, like Trump, can get away with more than conventional politicians.” – Stewart [08:03]

• Populist tactics dissected:
  “Keir Starmer gets covered like he’s Vlad the Impaler and Nigel Farage gets covered like a cuddly celebrity.” – Stewart quoting Mark Gatiss [42:02]

• Reflections on Labour’s missed centre-ground opportunity:
  “There are a lot of Lib Dem Tory voters who could be potential Labour voters… they haven’t felt business friendly, deregulation friendly.” – Campbell [29:55]

• Burnley voter analysis:
  “He doesn’t really understand my life… And if all they see is he’s getting on a plane, going to Armenia...” – Stewart [54:06]

---

Important Timestamps

• [02:32] Rory details Labour’s collapse in Wales
• [04:53] “Vote Reform, Get Starmer Out” strategy discussed
• [07:38] Reform’s funding and media presence dissected
• [12:26] Call for structural reforms: campaign finance and social media regulation
• [14:54] Labour’s internal anger and blame on Starmer
• [18:45] “Starmer is becoming Joe Biden” analogy
• [22:53] Stewart on risk of knee-jerk leadership changes
• [35:07] Live polling: perceptions of next Prime Minister and Labour leader alternatives
• [42:26] UK media’s treatment of Starmer vs. Farage
• [43:52] Will other parties unite to block Reform?
• [54:06] Real voter sentiment from Labour heartlands
• [57:14] Summing up: what Labour must do next

---

Conclusion

Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell paint a stark picture of a political establishment under siege, Labour’s leadership teetering, Reform UK resurgent, and the forces of populism aligning with aggressive fundraising and headline-friendly outrage. Parallels to Trump and Biden abound, with Starmer cast as a well-meaning but embattled technocrat whose inability to capture the public’s imagination now threatens not just his own party’s future, but the stability of the political system itself. The key, both agree, isn’t just narrative or leadership churn, but bold, tangible improvements in people’s lives and a willingness to confront populism head-on—before it’s too late.

---

For more detail on Gen Z perspectives and youth disaffection, tune in next week for the interview with Angela Rayner as part of their Gen Z Members series.

Transcript

[Rory Stewart]

Thanks for listening to the Rest Is Politics. To support the podcast, listen without the adverts and get early access to episodes and live show tickets, go to therestispolitics.com that's therestispolitics.com this episode is brought to you by Fuse Energy.

[Alistair Campbell]

Energy policy rarely stays in Westminster for long, usually arrives for the Bill and from the 1st of April, 75% of renewables obligation costs will come off electricity bills and move into general taxation.

[Rory Stewart]

So if bills are meant to fall from April, why would anyone bother switching?

[Alistair Campbell]

Because policy sets the floor. The saving itself is automatic. What suppliers offer beyond that isn't, and that's where real competition operates.

[Rory Stewart]

Fuse goes beyond the mandated saving. Customers who switch save around an additional £200 on average. In the Fuse Energy app you can see exactly what you're using and what it costs. With 24. 7 support, you need it.

[Alistair Campbell]

Listeners to the show will also receive a free trip plus subscription when they

[Rory Stewart]

switch get more than just lower rates. Switch [e-mail] politics using the code politics and save around £200 on your bills.

[Alistair Campbell]

Visit fuseenergy.com for full details and terms and conditions.

[Red Bull Summer All Day Play Announcer]

Ready to soundtrack your summer with Red Bull Summer All Day Play? You choose a playlist that fits your summer vibe the best. Are you a festival fanatic, a deep end dj, a road dog or a trail mixer? Just add a song to your chosen playlist and put your summer on track. Red Bull Summer All Day Play Red Bull gives you wings. Visit red bull.com brightsummerahead to learn more. See you this summer.

[Alistair Campbell]

Some Follow the Noise Bloomberg Follows the Money Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. Get the money. Subscribe [e-mail]. Welcome to the Rest is Politics. It's an emergency podcast on the local

[Rory Stewart]

elections with me, Rory Stewart and me, Alistair Campbell. Is it emergency or is it live? It's live. Is it also an emergency?

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, live emergency. Anyway, it's not one of our normal things because we're having this amazing local election in Britain which just to remind people, could be huge change for the way the British electoral system works.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, got a new system, very new system in Scotland and Wales and I guess the we're recording this, we're doing this one o' clock on the day after the vote and the main focus so far has been elections in England. Wales, I am reliably informed by Labour people in Wales is going to be a disaster for Wales. I was talking to somebody who was in at the count at one of Labour's historic, politically safest seats ever, who said that they were going through the boxes and in every single one of them, Labour was coming third behind Applied and Reform. And it was very neck and neck between Plydon Reform in Scotland. I think the SNP are going to win. The question will be whether they get a majority. Some sort of optimists in the Labour campus saying it's going to be slightly better than we expected. We shall see. And then I think the story slightly

[Alistair Campbell]

better, I guess, is that John Curtis was looking. The famous Sir John Curtis, the great pollster seemed to be suggesting that his polls were thinking SMP will do very well in Scotland, but they won't quite get a majority, which won't be enough for them to push for a referendum on independence. But he thought it's possible reform could come second and Labour and Conservatives neck on neck on about 17 seats. So doing better, presumably would mean Labour coming second rather than, I think Labour

[Rory Stewart]

doing better would mean probably gaining some seats and certainly not falling behind. Reform. We shall see. And then the votes in England again complicated because the places where the Greens and the Lib Dems might expect to do a bit better, many of them still to declare. So the overnight headlines were very much about this, what the BBC seemed to delight in calling the reform surge. And they're looking to be around about one in four of those who voted voting reform. I actually think for those who I suspect most of our viewers and listeners are kind of not necessarily natural reform voting. We do have some, but not that many. I think to those who are not, there is quite a lot of comfort to be taken in that because the turnout is higher than usual, but still less than half. But it means that one in three out of four did not vote for reform. This vote does not say to me that Nigel Farage is the next Prime Minister.

[Alistair Campbell]

The one in four. Interesting also is because broadly across Europe, the parties on the right, so parties like the AfD in Germany, Le Pen, I mean further right than the conventional right wing parties, tend to be getting between 20 and 30%, don't they?

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

And at the moment, of course, people like me who are very disturbed by the rise of the AfD in Germany, very disturbed by Fraser Nelson reporting that Robert Jenrick was talking about essentially tracking down and getting rid of 2 million people from Britain, presumably predominantly Muslims, who reform don't like, take comfort in the fact that they're getting 25, 30% of the vote that they're not the majority of the vote.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. But I think if you look at the polls and if you look at the expectations that they were trying to create, I'm not quite sure that they've hit the mark. Look, I'm not getting away from the fact it is a much, much better result for them, certainly than the Tories, certainly than Labour and probably the Greens as well, because the Greens, I think, are underperforming against what their expectations are.

[Alistair Campbell]

Just quickly, on expl. Expectations, there was some very odd reporting over the weekend that Nigel Farage was not doing your famous Ken Baker trick of setting expectations very low. In fact, he was doing the opposite. He was doing something that you almost never see in local elections. He was going around saying, this is going to be an amazing win. This is going to be a great bonanza win. Which of course gives people like the Conservatives the opportunity to say in Harlow, for example, where there were 11 seats up and where a form seem to be talking about getting seven or eight, the Tories have got a clean suite.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. And. And so it will be. Look, localizations are always a mixed picture. You always kind of. There's a sort of battle for the narrative and overnight reform won that battle, without a doubt. But I think there's something very interesting as well about, if you look at. Because the story of the election coverage, insofar as there's been that much coverage, has really been all the way through. This is like a big opinion poll on Keir Starmer. We'll come on to that. But then the other two parts of the story have been reform doing very, very well and high expectations and Zach Polanski doing the same. And I think there's been something interesting, I think the last few days of the campaign, some of what you call the. Well, certainly Zach Polanski's had a pretty bad last few days. Nigel Farage has had a bad last few days. The difference, I think, is that the relentlessness of the attacks on Zach Polanski appear to have had an impact, whereas I'm not sure that the attacks on Farage have.

[Alistair Campbell]

And remind us the two. So with Polanski, I noticed was a front page article in the. Saying that he'd not paid council tax on a canal boat that he'd been living on.

[Rory Stewart]

There was something fake on his CV about being an ambassador for the Red Cross.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay.

[Rory Stewart]

And then there was a rerunning of all the other stuff and he was getting a bit kind of, you know, he wasn't getting a. He wasn't getting. And he of course, says this is all the right wing media against him, blah, blah, blah. I think with Farage, though, there's two things which I think Labour have got to really, really understand the importance of this. This 5 million pound donation wasn't getting much coverage, but it was getting through to the public.

[Alistair Campbell]

And this is Chris harbor, based in Thailand.

[Rory Stewart]

Crypto billionaire who's given tens of millions already or over 10 million already to the party, gave this 5 million pound donation, which Farage claims is for his lifetime security. So the worry for labor is that even when there are what we, you and I would say, and most people would say genuine scandals attached to Farage, partly because the media, it doesn't really drive them because most of the right wing media want Farage to do well. They're sort of priced in and it's a bit like Trump, he can get away with more than conventional politicians. The second thing, also related to Harborne is that Farage and the Reform Party now have a lot of money. I can't remember whether we ever did front page wraparounds on evening newspapers, but yesterday, if you got on the tube in London, I don't think Reform would do very well in London, but it was just a way of signaling how much, you know, they cash they've got in the bank. A wraparound of the Evening Standard, front page and back page together was an advert for reform and a full page inside. That's a lot of money.

[Alistair Campbell]

I'd be interested. Also, I don't know whether anybody's polled Reform voters what the range of opinion is about Farage taking five million pounds personal donation. Somebody's pointing out to me when I said, why don't you take it as a personal donation rather than speaking fee or something. Apparently the answer is income tax. If Chris harbor decided to pay him £5 million to give a speech, he'd have to pay income tax. Gift says no tax on it, so it's worth twice as much to him.

[Rory Stewart]

Look, I don't believe the story stacks up, but the point is, and then today he was asked about it and he said, oh, we can talk about

[Alistair Campbell]

that, but he'd need to earn effectively £10 million to end up with £5 million in his bank account of the way that he has now, which is sort of money, well beyond, kind of partner in a fancy law firm or any of this kind of stuff. Well, well beyond. So he's putting himself not into the category of I want to be financially secure and live a middle class lifestyle. He's trying to put himself in the category of, I suppose, the top 0.01% of the British population.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, when we did the miniseries with Liam Byrne about populism, one of the points he made is that these right wing populists have got, they're really, really attracted politics to get very, very wealthy. So with Orban, we've seen it with Trump, we've seen it with Trump's family now. But so I think that from Labour's perspective, see, I think there are. Maybe this is a good pivot into Labour and we can come on to Keir Starmer, his own position in a minute. But if you think about it, a lot of the problems that the Labour government's got itself into are from decisions that were made that didn't seem to reflect what people thought they were electing. So, for example, we talked about it hundreds of times on the podcast the Winter Fuel Payment. But effective government has to be about seeing in advance the sort of changes that actually might be to the benefit of the country. And if you can benefit the country in a certain way, then longer term you get a benefit to your party seeking re election after a parliamentary term. Now, I would argue, and I argued with some of the people at the Labour Party about this at the time, you and I both felt in opposition. They should be acknowledging that our politics and therefore our democracy itself is facing serious, profound threats. I would argue that one of the reasons why Nigel Farage does as well as he does is because he's been allowed to create a TV channel, a bit like Fox News did for Trump in America, GB News, which pumps out propaganda day after day after day. Yesterday, if you turned on the BBC, we've talked about Ofcom on the podcast. If you turn on the BBC yesterday, the BBC rightly said, obviously on election day, we're not allowed to talk about politics. Okay, well, don't be surprised, therefore, if anybody is interested in politics, turns you off and goes to their phone and finds the whole bloody world's talking about politics and it's being flooded with advertising. And if you've got the money. So this money, the money that they've now got, most people are not following politics through newspapers or through the radio or through the television. Lots of them may be through podcasts, but actually an awful lot they're doing it through that. And Election Times, if you've got money, you bombard them.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, so you're pointing to something which is about structure. So there are different ways to think about populism. One of them is about the underlying drivers of people voting for the far right and the far left, which is anger about immigration, anger about cost of living, anger about what's happening to local communities. But another way to think about it is in terms of the structures of social media, electoral systems and campaign finance. So if you were a man that we both admire a lot, Premier South Australia, Peter Malin Oscars, you would say, look, if you're bold and serious about this, let's take two of these things, let's take a look social media and let's take campaign financing and let's say we're going to fix the structure. And actually, if you're going to be Australian, you go further. You'd go for an Australian electoral system, you'd go for compulsory voting. All of this makes it less likely for extreme parties to come out of nowhere, take donations from people who are living overseas, exploit the social media landscape. And so let's have a level playing field. And I think the safest level playing field is to stop all these bloody parties taking money. That's what I like about Manoloskis approach, right? Stop labor taking it from the unions, stop the Tories taking it from business and stop reform taking 5 million or 15 million or whatever, the whole thing.

[Rory Stewart]

That's instead of which, because the decision was taken, not really to get into that, they're getting to it belatedly through the Rycroft review that we talked about a few weeks ago, where there'll be limits put on donations and also limits from overseas, but because they haven't set that out early on, if they were to do that now.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, it just looks like they're sore losers.

[Rory Stewart]

Exactly. In the middle of what is being described as terrible results, and they were suddenly to do that. So I think that's why you've always got to set this inside a kind of a bigger picture where you're delivering things over time. So I think now, what happens now for Labor, I mean, around the country today, a lot of Labour councillors who are losing their seats are going to feel really pissed off. A lot of MPs who are looking at the councillors who are pissed off and have lost their seats are going to think, well, if they're losing their seats in this scale, I could do the same. That is good. And I think I said the other day, it's always worse when it happens. No matter how.

[Alistair Campbell]

How much you anticipate it, it's always worse.

[Rory Stewart]

So today we'll be feeling really, really bad for a lot of people and you'll be getting.

[Alistair Campbell]

And if you're a Labour mp, you'll be getting very, very angry texts and messages from very loyal Party members who've been campaigning for you for years, out on the doorsteps in all weather with the leaflets. You've been going to the Labour Party events with them and they've all lost their council seats.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. And they're gonna be pissed off.

[Alistair Campbell]

And they will be blaming Keir Starmer.

[Rory Stewart]

Probably a lot of them will. A lot of them will. And of course, now, I think the whole Keir Starmer thing, most of them

[Alistair Campbell]

will, I think, probably not to be mean, but my experience, when Tories local councillors lost their seats, they blame David Cameron or Theresa May or whoever.

[Rory Stewart]

And that's partly because there is such focus on the Prime Minister and the party leaders in our politics. Same as some people will be saying that, you know, Kemi Badenoch, the Tories is a very mixed picture. It's not a great local election. They're meant to be the main opposition party, but nobody's really talking about them because they've not done that well. So leaders inevitably get blamed. So then that is inevitably giving rise to the question about whether Keir Starmer stays or goes. And, you know, and this is. This is. This is really, really difficult because I think all the different there is, if you look at results as bad as this, you're bound to say, well, look, if everybody's saying it's about Keir Starmer, got to make a change.

[Alistair Campbell]

And just. Sorry, just, just for listeners who aren't completely following the micro details, one of the big things here is there are just so many more Labour seats up than was true last time. So the narrative a year ago was Chris Mason's the rise and rise reform. So last year was the moment where reform really seemed to break through and it took the mayoralty in a couple of places and it took six councils and it was a huge explosion. But Labour only lost something like 400 seats last time around because there weren't that many seats up. This time, Labour almost certainly will lose well over 1,000 seats because there are over 2,000 of these labour seats up for grabs. So just in. I mean, forget about percentages in absolute numbers, this is going to feel like an unbelievable hammering for the Labour government. And then you add to that that we were saying shortly after Sama was elected that Labour looked like it was in with a good chance in Scotland. It's definitely not going to win in Scotland. Alice Sawa is not going to be the first minister in Scotland. So put all of that together.

[Rory Stewart]

People are going to be thinking and just to underline that, Anasawa, who called for Keir Starmer to resign, thinking that was the way for him to get a kind of break between the damage that he felt UK Labour were doing to Scottish Labour, it might have helped him a bit, I don't know. Whereas in Wales, it seems like for some time now, they've just kind of given up on imagining any chance of winning. So my point about what now happens to Keir Starmer, sometimes what might seem obvious doesn't always happen. And I think in this context, there's various reasons for this. So the first is that there's no doubt, there is a sense within a lot of the people you talk to, including people who really criticize Keir Starmer, who will say, God, you know, one of the reasons the Tories got absolutely shafted is because they kept changing the Prime Minister. So a lot of them will be thinking, including, by the way, the people who you think that they might be in with the shout will be thinking, do we make it better or worse? And then they'll be thinking, do we make it better or worse to do it. Now, I'll be honest, most of the people you talk to inside The Labour Party, MPs, ministers, et cetera, sort of say, well, nobody really thinks Keir's going to be there at the election. Okay. Now, I'm not sure Keir Starmer thinks that. No, because I think that he. He can't be enjoying this. He'll be hating today. But you didn't see a guy who was going out sort of setting out a plan for departure today.

[Alistair Campbell]

This is why I said to you a couple of days ago, using Joe Biden. Yeah. He's rapidly becoming Joe Biden because he's basically in a bunker with his wife, saying, it's all going to be fine.

[Rory Stewart]

Oh, you can't do the Lady Macbeth. We can't do that. Totally unfair.

[Alistair Campbell]

We can go into the next election. We'll win. It's going to be lovely. Kira, everybody's always underestimated you as long

[Rory Stewart]

as you're saying that.

[Alistair Campbell]

Everyone's always read Tom Baldwin's books. Everyone's always underestimated you. And now you know you're going to prove them wrong and you're going to win at the next election and just give them time to really understand the real kid. Yeah. And nobody buys this. So the problem.

[Rory Stewart]

Can I just interject on Victoria Starmer's defense? I'm not sure she says that at all.

[Alistair Campbell]

Very good. Okay, let's work. But so somebody around him must be saying that there'll be flatterers around him saying, kia, come on, you know, you're much better than these other people. You've got to stay because, you know, for the country and for the party, I mean, obviously, you know, Antel Rainer or Wes Threeting is going to be a disaster. So we need you, we need you to hold the party together. But working backwards, if he cannot run at the next election, it seems to me that your only hope really is to get rid of him and hope that someone else does a better job.

[Rory Stewart]

Mark Carney said in Davos, hope is not a strategy.

[Alistair Campbell]

Well, well, it's your only option. Because the reality is that they may be disasters. Antarena may be a disaster, where Streeting may be a disaster. Al Khan's could be a disaster. Peter Kyle could be a disaster. Who knows? But give them a shot, let them run at it, and hopefully have a process that is a bit better than the process that produced Kamala Harris. Bit more of a kind of brutal primary process that really brings out who these people are, lets us see them, lets us see who's got the talent and who sounds more like Prime Minister and then give them a chance. Because what Mark Carney's proved is that if you actually can dominate the stage and communicate, you can take over a pretty horrible situation. Canada is not objectively in a good situation. The Canadian economy is under huge pressure. He was inheriting a very difficult legacy. He's turned it around so you could do it. And the one person who obviously isn't going to be able to do it. This is my Biden analogy, is Starmer. Starmer can't do it.

[Rory Stewart]

But I completely understand why you're saying that. But even as you describe that process, you say, give them a shot, give them a shot. So that means you're asking Keir Starmer, Kir, do you mind hanging around being a Prime Minister for a bit while we sort of all fight it out? At which point the country starts to think, well, hold on a minute, are you not a government or are you just another leadership election? How does that process even happen? So this is my point, but in the end, you have to live in the real world. So all these ministers who are briefing, I said this to him and others have said this to him. And I think this, in the end, this stuff only happens if he makes a decision to go or he gets forced out. I don't see at the moment, rightly or wrongly, I don't see either of those things happening.

[Alistair Campbell]

But what's Your definition of strategy again, you've got a vision.

[Rory Stewart]

My definition of strategy is the big argument by which you reach an objective that you've set and set out and understood.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay. Seems to me that the objective that needs to be set out and understood is to do a hell of a good job governing Britain for the next three years.

[Rory Stewart]

Correct.

[Alistair Campbell]

And second objective is to win the next election.

[Rory Stewart]

Correct.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay. I think if you take those two objectives, Keir Saumer is not the answer to governing Britain brilliantly with conviction over the next three years. And he's not the answer to winning next election. And once you've seen that big strategic picture, the conclusion's obvious.

[Rory Stewart]

Okay, well, you say the conclusion's obvious. It might be obvious in terms of the decision that the Labour government and the Labour Party has to make, but the outcome of that decision is not obvious. And that's why I still think it's. It's important to hold back from thinking that because this is what the Tories did. Get rid of something that's not working because nothing can be worse than this. That's not a strategic approach.

[Alistair Campbell]

Well, let's look at the Tories a little bit more sympathetically. I mean, my guess is hanging on to Theresa May probably wouldn't have worked. They brought in Boris Johnson. I mean, I happen to think, you know, obviously terrible human being, terrible Prime Minister.

[Rory Stewart]

He won an election.

[Alistair Campbell]

He won election.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

Against all the odds. You know, when I was running against Boris, the basic story was winning that 2019 election election would be very, very difficult. He managed it again. They couldn't leave Boris in. It was the right move to get rid of him. Partygate scandals, the incompetence around Covid. Check him out. Nor could they leave Liz trussing, for goodness sake. So they had to move. Now. It didn't work for them because unfortunately Rishi Sunak got many, many talents, but he wasn't a great communicating, strategic, big thinking Prime Minister. But the other option, which I call the Biden option, which is to be so aware of all the risks and the difficulties involved in getting rid of the leader that you stick with someone who clearly cannot be your long term leader can't be the answer.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. So let's just stick with the choice there. Let's just imagine who a Labor character might be that fits that journey that you've just described. So David Cameron's the Prime Minister.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

And Theresa May comes in.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Kirsten was the Prime Minister. Let's just say.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

That there's. They suddenly give me an election. Let's say Angela Rayner comes in.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yep.

[Rory Stewart]

Okay. I'm not comparing Andreasa, mate. Other than the fact that she comes in.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

I'm all. I can already think of all sorts of things that can go wrong quite quickly.

[Alistair Campbell]

Sure.

[Rory Stewart]

The tax thing.

[Alistair Campbell]

Sure.

[Rory Stewart]

Not resolved.

[Alistair Campbell]

Sure.

[Rory Stewart]

The, the, the, the, the, the. Has she got the vision? Has she got the talent?

[Alistair Campbell]

Sure.

[Rory Stewart]

We don't know.

[Alistair Campbell]

Sure.

[Rory Stewart]

Let's say she comes in, doesn't last.

[Alistair Campbell]

Sure.

[Rory Stewart]

Okay.

[Alistair Campbell]

Sure.

[Rory Stewart]

And then people say, well, we've got to get Andy Burnham in now. Yeah, okay. Now. And Andy Burnham, here's a question for. Here's an interview for you. The, the Manchester results that are. The Greens might actually win in Manchester, having already won that by election in Angela Thames side council, which is Angela Rayner's part of the world. Labor is getting absolutely whacked. So people are making assumptions about things that could happen now. So what I'm saying is the only possible means of getting to what you're saying, I think is if Keir Starmer actually looks deep into the soul and says, maybe I was good for that, but I'm not as good for this and for some reason the public have taken against me and I've got to miss you and I both talked about this, that there is, I think I told you at football match recently when the crowd started singing Keir Starmer's a wanker, sort of apropos of absolutely nothing. There was nothing political going on in the crowd. That's bad. And every, you know, it's just a football match.

[Alistair Campbell]

You didn't tell us this, actually. No. I don't know.

[Rory Stewart]

It was pulling against Burnley. It was going through a dull phase and suddenly it wasn't thousands, but a few hundred. Keir Starmer's awank. It happened at the darts the other night. So what that says. Yeah, what that says is that it's become a thing to, quote, hate Keir Starmer. It's one of the reasons why the front page, back page advert that Reform did. What was their slogan of these elections? Vote Reform, Get Starmer out. So it's all a negative thing against him. Now, I think whoever is prime minister at the moment in our current culture and climate where things aren't great, they're going to get that. So, yeah, I, so I'm not minimizing either the disastrousness of this result or the fact that there is a real doubt about Keir Starmer, but I think it's particularly in government, it's such a big thing as the Tories found to say, let's get rid of the Prime Minister. And it underlines the idea that you just care. You're all caring about yourself and not about us.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay, look, I course you're right and I'm, I'm. It's all very well. Look, I'm sitting here in this strange, beautiful studio, I noticed, with three of your books and only one of mine behind me here.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, that's because I've written 21.

[Alistair Campbell]

That's right. It's a percentage, percentage point, isn't it? So you're completely right. It will feel brutal. And you're totally right that the two main reasons this doesn't happen is people are very worried about who these alternative candidates. Are they going to be any good?

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

Which is what I would call the, you know, the issue around Gretchen Whitner or the issue around Kamala Harris. And the second thing, which is the boss himself doesn't want to go, which is what I call the Joe Biden problem. Biden doesn't want to go. Historically, also let's add to that that Labour has historically been much less good at getting rid of leaders than the Conservatives, we're going to say. You mentioned hold on to Jeremy Corbyn for years, so I can see all that. And equally, I think if you weren't as close to it as you obviously are, and you were really stepping back, you know, if I to ask some nerdy large language model, these are the facts, what should happen? I think the conclusion is obvious. It can't. I mean, in a sense, a scenario where Starmer tries to cling on for another three years, he doesn't know how to communicate. It doesn't matter how many speech coaches he's got, how many new speech writers he's got, he doesn't know how to communicate. Secondly, he's really struggling to generate a stable team in number 10. I mean, he's losing them like you can't believe. I don't know the number of chiefs of staff he's had, heads of press he's had, let alone the number of Permanent Secretaries in the Civil Service. The guy burns through, heads the Foreign Office. He's not got any loyalty in the Civil Service. I mean, they're all. And I got a joke from a friend today saying, oh, yeah, we see it. Yeah. Local elections goes wrong. Keir Starmer's taking full responsibility, civil Service drawing lots on which one of them is going to have to resign. And what has he actually done in policy terms? He's not really managed to work out what the message was before the elections. The problem being VAR strategy. He didn't come in saying, here's my biggest bold message and I'm going to tell the voters before, I'm going to tell my MPs before and I'm going to tell the MPs afterwards.

[Rory Stewart]

I've always said that is the big weakness about the whole thing, the lack of a compelling narrative. The fact that, and I think these results in London and some of the ones that we're seeing in Manchester, I have always felt that the strategy is basically focused on what they call hero voters and they basically mean people who voted. Reform, I've always felt was a mistake because I think Labour is at risk of losing far more support to the left at the moment. They're losing both to the right and to the left because of that lack of a story that brings them together.

[Alistair Campbell]

Let me speak as a Labour friendly right winger.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

There were obviously two narratives that they could pursue.

[Rory Stewart]

I think you're less Labour friendly than you were and less right wing than you were as well.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, probably best, etc. I actually think that one of their problems is that when they think about the right left divide, they're fixated with reform and Greens.

[Rory Stewart]

Actually.

[Alistair Campbell]

I think there are a lot of Lib Dem Tory voters who could be potential Labour voters. Right. So there are a lot of the people that we go to talk to when we go to business events and talk about geopolitics, who actually were very excited by Labour before the election, thought the Tories, particularly under Liz Truss, had blown their credibility on the economy. Here was the Chancellor coming in saying, I care about growth, I care about deregulation, I'm going to keep taxes low, I'm going to be sensible in borrowing. So there was a story. The grownups have taken over. We're serious, we're pragmatic, we're going to run a serious economy, we're going to get it under control. That unfortunately, I'm afraid, was very damaged by the fact that instead of accepting when they saw the financial problems that they would come up with a pragmatic fiscal policy, they thought they'd do something cute. Putting up employers, national insurance while claiming they wouldn't put up taxes, but made a lot of people sad and they haven't felt business friendly, deregulation friendly. I know people like Peter Karl really want to do it and I want to hear more from him, really want to see him saying, here are the big supply side reforms, here are the big deregulation. This is how we're business Friendly. This is how entrepreneurial or with the Lib Dem voter? Let's see the values, let's see the position more clearly on Trump, on geopolitics, on Europe, on. You've talked a lot about the fact that there was a huge opportunity to get us all back by saying, let's be radical about Europe, let's rejoin Europe, let's say Trump and security threats and Ukraine and all of this has changed the whole world. This is a big direction going. But if your narrative is only, I'm going to cut one of fuel, Lance, and I'll put it up again, I'll cut down farmers inheritance, I'll knock it up again. I'm going to hit. It's just who the hell are you appealing to? Who are you? Exciting.

[Rory Stewart]

Just on the point about Europe and Brexit. The other thing that's been really interesting about the results so far, and this may sound obvious, but seats where wards where there is a high Leave vote historically have gone very, very strongly to reform. Okay. In wards where there was a very, very remain, high, Remain vote, Farage has got no chance, absolutely no chance. And that's why I think some of those people who voted Leave can be won back by a strategy that improves the economy, improves their public services and also calls out Farage's role in making every single one of them poorer. They've just never done that.

[Alistair Campbell]

So one classic example, which I think confirms this point that Labour's missed a whole trick in the centre ground, is what's happened with Westminster Council. So I voted Kensington, Chelsea yesterday, Pont Street Church. These are voters who delivered Labour MP. Westminster council was lost in 2022. And broadly speaking, if you go into that polling station, you would have felt that you were going back to 1980s. It was a very, very nice, quiet, respectable Conservative lady. I didn't quite want to call a blue ring standing there politely with her piece of paper.

[Rory Stewart]

Did you vote for her party?

[Alistair Campbell]

Well, I don't tell you who I

[Rory Stewart]

voted for, but why not?

[Alistair Campbell]

No, I don't tell you who I voted for, partly because I'm going to ruin your whole podcast if I start revealing the fact that I actually tend to move my vote around more than you'd like, more than I do.

[Rory Stewart]

I moved it once expelled from the party.

[Alistair Campbell]

But what I would say is that that kind of middle of the road, remain voting, pro business Tory who went over to Labour in the general election will have been tempted to come back towards the Tories, even if they feel political and certainly will not be excited by Labour and not going to vote reform.

[Rory Stewart]

No. And they're never going to vote Green.

[Alistair Campbell]

Right.

[Rory Stewart]

You see, this is the other thing which I think the other element of all of this since the election. Let's go back to the election you mentioned the Mingvars. They come in, they make a few mistakes, they do a few good things. Gets drowned out by all sorts of other stuff. But what they've never done really is project to the country a sense of optimism, a sense of, we can get through this, we can do it. They say it, but it's like that point I made about that Steve Parish, the Crystal palace chairman, congratulations on getting to the final of the European thing is the thing that he says. Every time they come on television, they look like they've just lost a football match that they should have won. There's got to be big messaging and big policy that excites people and makes them think the country's going somewhere. You can't just manage. You can't just manage crisis. Keir Starmer, I think, has done pretty well on some of the international stuff, although I still wouldn't underestimate how much Gaza first steps, these big, big moments. And yet back to the point about Farage gets away with it. Farage completely cocked up in relation to the start of the Iran war by wanting to get into bed with Trump, but he sort of. He gets away with it. Listen, we had some, lots of feedback, but one interesting one, which I think.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, yeah. And I've actually got some polling in our group coming in here. All right, so coming in, our polling,

[Rory Stewart]

who would best replace Keir Starmer?

[Alistair Campbell]

Yep. So Andy Burnham, 72%. Angela Rayner, 16%. We're streaming 11%. Remember, this is the people who happen to be watching our podcast.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

Who's most likely to win a general election? Nigel Farage, 66%. Keir Starmer, 21%. Zach Polanski, 8%. Kemi Badenoch, 5%.

[Rory Stewart]

Those are the current leaders.

[Alistair Campbell]

Who is the biggest winner of this local election two minutes ago, reform, 88%. Green 12%. Look, this is not a national polling. This is people who are interacting with live. But it's interesting. So just to sum that up, they basically think, regardless of what you and me say, reforms don't very well. And that it feels like the next Prime Minister is likely to be Nigel Fraser.

[Rory Stewart]

But these results don't say that. They don't say that. They say that he's leading in a multi party system.

[Alistair Campbell]

5 party system, 6 party system, 5,

[Rory Stewart]

6 party system, which is not yet Getting used to the fact that we no longer have the two parties, we no longer have the dominant two parties in a system that is still designed for it. I think on this what you will see, I could be completely wrong. And we've always got to be mindful of, you know, not sort of wishful thinking or thinking that what you said would happen then happens. But if I'm genuinely thinking about this from a reform perspective, I think there is the case to be made that this is about high watermark, apart from the one exception I'll say to that is they are now going to be so well funded in terms of campaigning and that does make a difference. I'll let you a bet now Nigel Farage is not Prime Minister.

[Alistair Campbell]

Very good, Very good. Okay.

[Rory Stewart]

Only if you tell me how you voted.

[Alistair Campbell]

No, I'm not going to tell you how I voted. Cami Badenox got a problem. I mean, she's going to be happy that she's done quite well in some of these local elections. But the question of how she positions herself against Farage, I'm still mesmerized by. For example, today she wasted time in the middle of the local election attacking my friend David Gork, who just got a knighthood. Now, David Gork is very much a Conservative from the old central Conservative Party. He was Lord Chancellor, Justice Secretary under Theresa May.

[Rory Stewart]

He got the Nigel for doing that review.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, review into the criminal justice system as an independent guy. And he is somebody who I think most mainstream. I'm toxic with some Tory MPs. David Gauke shouldn't be. He was one of the most decent, serious public servants we ever had. And for her to be giving out interviews saying she's spitting mad that he got a knighthood, that's not a good sign because she too should be trying to re win the center ground.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, well, you know my views about the honor system. But anyway, so. But I, no, I, I thought let's just think about the Cami Bay just

[Alistair Campbell]

spitting mad with anyone getting a title. Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Regardless, I used to be spitting. I'm more indifferent, but I can't get too excited.

[Alistair Campbell]

Is it not okay with a football manager getting an Iheart, is it?

[Rory Stewart]

No, but I think, I think the Tories I listened to, I saw James cleverly on the television and he was doing a kind of a modernized version of the Wandsworth Westminster thing. But I think it is important that the reason why these people who are watching us and listening to us are saying this all says Farage is the next Prime Minister because that's what you would take out of the way. This debate is being held today. It's a long, long time to go. I think let's just take the five million pound thing, the donation. I think if that had emerged in week one of a four week general election campaign, by the end of that campaign, it would have done real damage to Farage.

[Alistair Campbell]

Real damage, absolutely. And I also think, as somebody going into the polling booth, thinking this through, I think the way that many people will vote in a general election, if the question is, is Nigel Farage going to be Prime Minister?

[Rory Stewart]

Or Zach Polanski?

[Alistair Campbell]

It's going to be. Or Zach Polanski. It's going to be very different to what you're doing in a local election where you may be trying to kick the two main parties, but if somebody actually asks you, do you want Nigel Farage to be Prime Minister? I'd be interested in what the polling is. I reckon that will be considerably below what the Reform vote is.

[Rory Stewart]

And I think you mentioned Boris Johnson, though. I think what Faraj has done, helped by the other parties making the mistakes that they made, I think he has kind of reconstituted in a certain way the coalition that Johnson put.

[Alistair Campbell]

Well, that's why it's no accident that you get a lot of the Johnson people going over to him. Danny Kruger was Boris Johnson's chief of staff. Effectively he's gone over to Farage and you can see a lot of Boris's messages seem to be very much on a Farage line. Oh, Nadine Doris, who was a great Boris Johnson fan, also gone over to Farage. So, yeah, Nigel Farage is the sort of Boris Johnson party and he's appealing to the same sentiment, which is the kind of, you know, he's a bluff, straightforward guy who I can trust and he's going to be able to make the radical moves. And of course, what it turned out with Boris is that it wasn't true. Boris Johnson did not make radical moves. He wasn't pro business, he didn't deliver on any of his promises on immigration. In fact, he did the reverse. Really weird is having gotten an anti immigration run, he brought in about a million people. So people need to understand that the idea that someone is a good media performer and can be quite funny is not the same as them being sort of radical, reforming Prime Minister who's going to improve the country.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, let me say that is exactly what would happen if Nigel Farage ever did become Prime Minister. I mean, just, let's just understand. I mean, this is a guy you talk about the immigration thing, one of the reasons. And the current government gets the blame because they're in charge. And I understand that. But one of the reasons why immigration has soared, as you say, is because of Brexit. And one of the reasons why the economy has been screwed up is because of Brexit. I find it utterly insane that anybody would think that the architects of Brexit should be even considered Downing Street. And yet there he is.

[Alistair Campbell]

And yet their moves are so interesting. So I've been watching Dominic Cummings, right? And obviously Dominic Cummings been having a bit of go at two of us, right, criticize you for the Iraq war, criticize me for backing Kamala Harris. He doesn't own Brexit at all. He doesn't own Boris Johnson at all.

[Rory Stewart]

Nor does Farage.

[Alistair Campbell]

Brexit, Boris Johnson. Forget that, you know, all the disasters that happened during the time when he was in charge, doesn't matter. What he's now talking about is basically Muslim rape, gangs is what he wants to talk about. And it's a very, very interesting. You'll see it with Farage, shift the conversation on to trying to appeal to something completely and not take responsibility for what they did when they were in office.

[Rory Stewart]

And the difference at the moment, I don't want to sit here and just sort of, you know, blame the media the whole time. But the truth is as, as that Mark Gattis, the actor, said on the New Statesman podcast last week, you know, Keir Starmer gets covered like he's Vlad the Impaler and Nigel Farage gets covered like a cuddly celebrity. We do have a real problem with our media culture and our political media culture. There's a couple of.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, I got one here. Shall I start then? Mark, who's listening? Thank you, Mark, for listening. Thank you everybody who's joined us. Does Starmer really want his legacy to be the PM who ushered in one of the most far right governments in UK history? Does he not have the self awareness to see how he is a big part of the problem, rightly or wrongly? Surely he has to understand the only chance Labour have is through starting fresh. So this is again the Biden critique, right? The problem with hanging on is you end up with Trump. The problem with hanging on is you're taking the risk of ending up with Farage.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, look, the answer to the first part of Mark's question, Tostama wanted legacy to be with the PM rushes in the most far right government history. No, he doesn't. Okay, but he will be thinking that that does not have to be his legacy. If he gets his act together, if the government raises its game and I accept their big Fs. And it may be what these results may show. I don't know, it may be that the country has just decided not having him. That sometimes happens.

[Alistair Campbell]

Here's another question for you from Hester. Yeah, thank you team for sending it to us. Will Labour, Greens and even Tories wake up and start forming a pact against reform? Calling them out for what they pointing out their failures, frauds, single policies, Trump supporting rhetoric, et cetera. This is what the Dutch parties did so well with Hert Wilders. It's also what to give him credit, the German Chancellor has done by refusing to make a pact with the AfD. So that's why very disturbed to see Cami Badenoch.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. And it's giving the impression that she's

[Alistair Campbell]

sort of leaving that out.

[Rory Stewart]

It's also. It's a version of what Magyar did in in Hungary by persuading all the other parties to kind of unite as one. We have our gremlins have also been polling on this as well. Should labor form a pact with The Lib Dems? Yes. 62. No, 38. Did you notice by the way, that Ed Davy wasn't in your list that you read out? Is that because he got nulpoint?

[Alistair Campbell]

That's a bit depressing.

[Rory Stewart]

I hope it wasn't like ABBA in Brighton back in the 70s when they got.

[Alistair Campbell]

Can we just pause on that for a second? Because we don't talk enough about the Lib Dems and actually there are substantial figures. I mean, you know, what have they got 70 something seats in parliament?

[Rory Stewart]

They've had some amazing results today, like total bypass in some places, doing well

[Alistair Campbell]

in the local elections. So we talk about why Farage gets covered and why the Tories don't. What's the story about the Lib Dems? I mean, why, given that they have a historically huge representation in Parliament, given that, you know, a lot of people in Senegal, why have the Lib Dems not really cut through in the right way in the last year and a half?

[Rory Stewart]

I guess because. Sorry to keep banging about the media. I think we've got a trivial media. So they prefer. Oh, Zach Polanski. Didn't he once hypnotize a woman and say that he could make her boobs better? Let's keep going on about is that

[Alistair Campbell]

right or is it that when they report at Davy. Actually it's almost the reverse. It's that because of that they're reporting a Davy. Because he's doing some weird thing, some stunt.

[Rory Stewart]

I think the stunt thing is at its day, but I look they we.

[Alistair Campbell]

And was that not an error, that stunt? It might have been, but it's for the long term. I mean the short term, fine. But don't you think in the long term it's what people will remember him for as doing jolly stunts? And how do you then tilt from that to being the moral voice against Donald Trump? It's quite tough.

[Rory Stewart]

Right, because he has been very tough against Trump. Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

But it's not taken with the same gravitas and serious. It's not like, you know, Hillary, Ben or Gordon Brown suddenly starts talking about Donald Trump.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

Because Gordon Brown's not to be found.

[Rory Stewart]

You know, Gordon Brown is definitely not going to go down a slide into a swimming pool. He's not going to do that.

[Alistair Campbell]

No.

[Rory Stewart]

If he did, he'd definitely wearing a suit and tie.

[Alistair Campbell]

I think if you're trying to present yourself as like.

[Rory Stewart]

I also think that they, the Lib Dems have had the historic problem they have is that they are appealing to different constituencies in different parts of the country. I think they should have have led the way much more volubly on Europe. That's what Polanski has tried to do. And by the way, the European thing is a risk. But the whole point about the Ming Vase strategy is that I think it bred in the labor mindset. Well, that was really successful. So let's not take too many risks. I think politics now is not just about the need to good communication. It's the need to have big things to argue about and win the arguments against your opponents.

[Alistair Campbell]

Also, you can't be a cautious Mingvas status quo, easy as you go party today. I mean, Trump is basically exploding the world AI is upturning all our economies on their head. Populism is on the rise. I mean, your only hope to survive in a world in which volcanoes are going off and earthquakes are everywhere is not to stand still and say steady as you go, but start dancing around the lava.

[Rory Stewart]

Just to cheer up any of our Lib Dem listeners. They did say, I think that the, the council that I was thinking of, not a single councillor from another party was elected in Richmond upon Thames.

[Alistair Campbell]

There we are.

[Rory Stewart]

That's, that's. We're talking one party state.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah. No, Rich, Richmond's very one party state. Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

And they also. And three Green Council has got the boot and the Lib Dems have also gained Portsmouth and Stockport and they've held Eastleigh. The Gremlins are texting again. Bloody hell.

[Alistair Campbell]

Does it in our Sunday read this weekend.

[Rory Stewart]

Oh, it's for a plug. Here we go.

[Alistair Campbell]

We'll be covering the local elections in. Lots of details, lots of interviews with local councillors across the country. So, yeah, Sunday read, worth looking at our newsletter if you want more details, really detailed interviews with local councillors. So to receive it, sign up to our free newsletter through the link in the bio. Mark's got a question on the doorsteps. Labor canvassers reportedly encounter a visceral dislike of Keir Starmer. Do these reports concur with what you're hearing? If so, does this mean Keir's got, It's interesting, visceral dislike. I mean, I find him like a sort of slightly disappointing kind of accountant, but not someone I'd get visceral dislike on the.

[Rory Stewart]

The hate thing is real. And, and is that just part of our culture? I, we, I said, you and I discussed this a few weeks ago.

[Alistair Campbell]

What do they hate him for, though?

[Rory Stewart]

I'll tell you why. I've thought about this a lot and I went, I was in a school recently and I sensed that some of them were in this kind of I really hate him sort of category. And some of them, and I said, look, you can say you, as you say, you're disappointed, he's not exciting, he's not this and that, but hatred is such a strong thing. Yeah, I mean, there are people in the world I hate, but not many of them. Yeah, sure, there aren't that many, but, you know, a lot of people clearly do hate him and that did come up in the doorstep a lot. And this young woman, she was probably about 17, voting for the first time, and she said, I've thought about this, she said what you got to understand. He, when he stood to be leader, he said he was one thing and then he came in, he was something different. And then when he stood be Prime Minister, he was giving one sort of impression, then he came in and he gave in another. And if you're my age, you think they're all shit, but he's the guy in charge.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay, so that's one, one story, which is that he's inconsistent. He says one thing, does another. And if you were to talk to the guys in the stands who are chanting it. So let's say you were talking, I don't know, let's say 35 year old guy in Burnley who told you they hated Keir Starmer. What might they say about why they hated him?

[Rory Stewart]

Well, while I was speaking there, I just had A message not from our team but from somebody else says Burnley have lost all seats. Labour have lost all seats in Burnley. Just on your question about. Why were they singing that? I think for the. Look, in the end they're at a football match. Yep. Might have had a bit to drink.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

And. But I think the mood around discussion of politics in a lot of working class areas is they're not doing anything for us.

[Alistair Campbell]

Tell us a bit about Burnley, though. Sorry, I keep pushing on. What sort of place is it? Where is it?

[Rory Stewart]

Former mill town. Has got some industrial development, but it struggled. Unemployment pretty high historically. Racial tension quite strong up in Lancashire. In East Lancashire. Yeah. Transport links being talked about forever. Never really improved.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay. And was a Labor safe seat and then went to Lib Dems briefly, then back back to labor and now.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, currently a Labor mp.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yep. And in the local election.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, I don't know whether this is one of the. This if they've lost every seat. I don't know whether this is one which is the third going or the whole council.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay, so. But look to reform is the implication.

[Rory Stewart]

Yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But the. Put. But the. So the point is, in those parts of the country that have been historically working class labor, clearly reform has managed to present itself as the party that cares for the working class. Now, I would argue till I'm blue in my face that is not the case, that he does really care more about the crypto billionaires than he does about you. But while that is going on, Labour and the other parties have to do a far, far better job of saying, yes, I do understand your problems. I'll tell you another thing which I was talking to a minister this morning and he was going to be doing media a bit later on and telling me what he's sort of thinking of saying, what have you. And I said, listen, the problem with a lot of you is the first five minutes that you're talking on television, you're like commentators. You tell us what the problems are, we know what the problems are. Your job is to sort them and to give hope and optimism that they're being sorted. So I think that sense of, yeah,

[Alistair Campbell]

it's a bit like, sorry, I don't want to be boring, but I sometimes feel this, like if you get the plumber in and the plumber spends the first five minutes saying, oh, it's all very difficult. And there's this, that and the other and this, that happening with the pipes, they're saying, you actually want them to say, here I am, it's the solution, this is what I'm doing. I'm gonna get on with do it. Even better, actually. Maybe they get on, do it without talking too much.

[Rory Stewart]

And your point earlier about growth, again, we're repeating ourselves here because I felt right from the word go, they said growth is the big thing. But here we are almost halfway through the Parliament, nearly two years, and if you were to say to any of those people who voted reform in Burnley, but more than that, probably any small business person or any big business person. Right, I'm going to put you on the spot. Define for me the four key elements of Labour's growth strategy. Not sure what they are. Now, you mentioned Gordon not doing stunts, but I have to say back in, when Tony and Gordon were around, we had some bad local elections. Don't get me wrong, we did.

[Alistair Campbell]

But he could definitely tell you what

[Rory Stewart]

we'd definitely be able to tell you

[Alistair Campbell]

what a gross Gordon round would definitely be able to. Not even four points. 17 points probably.

[Rory Stewart]

What's more, you'd have heard it through the campaign as well and you'd have known that's what it's about. So when you talk to Labour, if you talk to reform, what was their message for the campaign? They're basically saying, vote reform, get Starmer out. This is like. And this is a referendum on Keir Starmer.

[Alistair Campbell]

Let me come back. You said it to Labour, okay last time though, because imagine you're a Burnley voter who hates Keir Starmer and you're like 40 year old guy from East

[Rory Stewart]

Lancashire, got the guy's age five years in two minutes.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay. What is, what, what would he say? Unlike your 17 year old at school. What, what might he say about why he hates kids?

[Rory Stewart]

Well, if I, if I recall one conversation that I did actually have. Yeah, he wasn't 40, he was a bit younger than that. But he, I mean a lot of it, my fade was a lot of the mythology which of course gets pumped out the whole time. Time he's posh. Well, he's not. He's a sir. Well, yeah, he is, but that's because he was the dpp. But I think the main thing actually he'd say is he doesn't really understand my life.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay.

[Rory Stewart]

And they're not. And I don't think that. And of course this is exacerbated when all the others see is there. He's getting on a plane, he's going to Armenia, you. And I would argue he needs to do all that foreign policy stuff. But if your life is not great.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

And you Want somebody to blame, then blame the guy who told you he was going to change things to make your life better and actually spend his whole time. That's what he said.

[Alistair Campbell]

And weirdly, he wouldn't think of Farage or even Boris Johnson as being posh in the same way. I mean, it's kind of weird kind of thing because obviously in such, you know, Boris, I mean, I had this recently, actually. Two days ago, a very, very wealthy business person came up to me and said, course, Rory, you're not going to like Nigel Farage because he's not enough for tough for you. He's not posh enough for you. And they'd obviously decided that Farage was proper kind of voice, the working class, this kind of public school educated, city trader, et cetera. So what is it about the way in which Farage and Johnson communicate that might make the man in Burnley feel completely wrongly, but feel that he relates them more easily in the summer?

[Rory Stewart]

I guess it is a sort of form of charisma. It's like, you know, it is the same. You and I maybe never understood it, but the truth is, I used to see it when Boris Johnson walked into a room, people went, oh, wow, it's Boris Johnson. You know, sort of an excitement. I think there's a little bit of that with Farage not quite the same. And I do think, by the way, I still do honestly believe Farage's piece.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Because I think he's started to make mistakes. He's got away with it for now, but I think he's gonna really struggle. I. One of the reasons why I think I'm not even convinced he'll be there at the next station, because I think what's happening now, you've got these other people who consider themselves as quite big

[Alistair Campbell]

beasts, like Robert Jenrick and people.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, Richard Tice, Robert Jenricks, you can no longer. No, Farage would say, well, I've done that strategically. Yeah. They always said I was a one man band. I'm not a one man band. But I think you've seen the. The div. I saw a very interesting thing on social media the other day. It was a guy who was dressed up in a union flag suit. Okay. And he was going around interviewing people.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Asking them about reforms policies and pretending to be a reform candidate.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

So he was. He was saying things like, you know, so why you're voting? You're voting for reform. Yeah. For. Oh, I like Nigel. Well, Brexit was good or whatever. And then the guy would articulate some of their policies or a version of them. So he would say, well, you know, are you happy that we're going to be privatizing the health service? And they go, oh, okay, okay. And, you know, by the way, we. We're going to fight for the billionaires. We think the billionaires people need to fight for. You'd get these guys who would like to say, yeah, yeah, I agree with that. I agree with that. So I think. Think it's the job, given the media isn't going to do it, it's the job of the other parties to make sure the public understand the reality of who these people are, what they're offering, and beat them. And I don't think it's that difficult.

[Alistair Campbell]

I guess my final. We should wrap in five minutes. But my final.

[Rory Stewart]

We don't want to go Joe Rogan and do three and a half.

[Alistair Campbell]

My final, final point then will be, let's hope there's a new Prime Minister soon and let's hope they start doing stuff. Let's hope they demonstrate on growth, on immigration, on AI, on values. Because probably the best way to defeat Farage is not just being slicker with the communication, but actually improving people's lives,

[Rory Stewart]

the country better, 100%. I mean, look, I can see why you think and why so many other people think it's clearly about the guy at the top who's got to change. I think the problems run deeper. I think the whole Cabinet has to step up. They spend far too much time talking about themselves, talking about their internal battles.

[Alistair Campbell]

I mean, it's maybe a bit uncomfortable because your friends will. I mean, I worry that it's actually pretty weak, that Cabinet. It's not a great front bench and that, you know, I'm not, like, looking at Ernie Bevan and Nye Bevan and being like, whoa, these guys. I'm not looking at Wilson's Cabinet, I'm afraid. You know, we were pretty rude about a lot of the Tory cabinets, but person for person, I can name six or seven people out of Cameron's Cabinet, May's Cabinet, Johnson's Cabinet, who are probably stronger performers than a lot of this.

[Rory Stewart]

Including yourself?

[Alistair Campbell]

Definitely. Including myself, definitely.

[Rory Stewart]

No, but. No, I'm not going to deny that. My point is, I think that. And look, this thing doesn't help. I mean, every time I see bloody journalists on television say, I've just had a WhatsApp from a member of the Cabinet. What the are you doing? Whatsapping, you know, get on with your job. So I. But my point is, I think that's but that underlines the point I made earlier. Unless you can see that there's a really good and obvious field who are going to do better, it might be best for labor to wait. It might be best. But, you know, we're clearly. We're not. We're going to agree.

[Alistair Campbell]

And I sometimes disagree agreeably on this,

[Rory Stewart]

to be absolutely frank, Rory. I sometimes disagree agreeably with myself.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Because I think sometimes. Yeah, it's obvious. And I think. I think through the possible consequence. Don't worry about it.

[Alistair Campbell]

So we haven't got the full Whales of Scotland results yet. Thank you all very much for listening. I'm pretty sure, knowing, knowing my friend here that he will probably be putting out some more reporting and social media stuff as we get more results coming through.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

This time next week, our interview with Angela Rayner, which is part of the Gen Z Members series.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. Which is really good.

[Alistair Campbell]

We're gonna make it free for everyone. It's great that we have an offer now put out a series which isn't forwarded by you and me, but done a pretty good job. I was talking to a friend who was playing it in the car, and he was describing his wife interrupting him and saying, I disagree with that. And he was like, wait, wait, wait, they'll get to that. And sure enough.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, he listened to it twice.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Excellent. I'll tell you just on that, by the way, talking about Gen Z. So what's happened? Vicky Spratt has done these, this series, and then part of it, she and I sat down with Angela Rayner because she's done a lot of the sort of renter stuff and housing and what have you. But I actually, too, think that a Gen Z package and an understanding of this and maybe getting into the whole intergenerational inequality thing, maybe when it's about big, bold things, maybe actually labor coming along and saying, look, this triple lock thing's got to go. We've got to actually, you know, spend less on older people, apart from those that really need it.

[Alistair Campbell]

Boy. Dear Kemi Badenoch, if you're listening, if you're trying to present yourself as the great economic realist, triple lock's got to go for the Tory manifesto, too.

[Rory Stewart]

So, you know, and then have a proper argument where you can get out and say, look, Zach Polanski can't do any of this for you because he's not going to be prime minister. So anyway, yeah, so Vicki Spratt, excellent miniseries. Andrew Rayner, looking forward to putting that out in the next few days. And there we Go. I can't pretend that it's been the most. What's the opposite of depressing? Happiest discussion Reform currently on 56 1. Lib Dems 337. Tories 307. Labeth 292. 380 seats lost Green 106.

[Alistair Campbell]

And just for those of you who have been pointing out the slight irony that our Gen Z series requires paying, we've got a student discount running £20 for a year. So you can hear not just the Gen Z series, but actually some miniseries we're very proud of. Alastair did some great stuff on Rupert Murdoch. We did stuff together on JD Vance. I've done an AI miniseries which is still ongoing, which I really would love people to listen to. So. But mostly thank you very much. Thank you for listening. And this is Rory signing off.

[Rory Stewart]

See you soon. Probably back fairly soon. I don't know. There you go.

[Alistair Campbell]

Bye bye guys. Thanks again.

[Gold Gordon Carrera]

Why did we really go to war with Iraq?

[David McCloskey]

And did Saddam Hussein really have weapons of mass destruction?

[Gold Gordon Carrera]

I'm Gold Gordon Carrera, national security journalist.

[David McCloskey]

And I'm David McCloskey, author and former CIA analyst. We are the hosts of the Rest Is Classified. And in our latest series, we are telling the true story of one of history's biggest intelligence failures. Iraq WMD.

[Gold Gordon Carrera]

In 2003, the US and UK told the world that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. But they were wrong.

[David McCloskey]

This wasn't a simple lie. It was something far more complicated, far more interesting and far more dangerous.

[Gold Gordon Carrera]

Spies who believed their sources, politicians who wanted the public to believe in the threat, and a dictator who couldn't prove he'd already destroyed the weapons.

[David McCloskey]

In this series, we go deep inside the CIA and MI6, go into the rooms where decisions were made, and look at the sources who fabricated the the intelligence that took us to war.

[Gold Gordon Carrera]

The Iraq war reshaped the Middle east and permanently weakened public trust in governments and intelligence agencies. And its consequences are still playing out today.

[David McCloskey]

Plus, in a Declassified Club exclusive, we are joined by three people who were at the heart of the decision to go to war. Former head of MI6 Richard Dearlove, Tony Blair's former communications director, Alistair Campbell, and former acting head of the CIA, Michael Morell.

[Gold Gordon Carrera]

So get the full story by listening to the Rest Is Classified and subscribing to the Declassified Club. Wherever you get your podcasts.