Podcast Summary: Leading Episode 122 – "How Europe Can Survive Trump" with Frans Timmermans

Introduction

In Episode 122 of Goalhanger's acclaimed podcast series Leading, hosts Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell engage in a profound conversation with Frans Timmermans, the Dutch politician renowned for his pivotal role in European climate policy and his leadership of the Labour Green coalition in the Netherlands. Timmermans brings a wealth of experience from his tenure as Vice President of the European Commission and his deep involvement in European politics, climate initiatives, and international relations, particularly concerning Russia and Ukraine.

Current Global Landscape

The episode opens with Rory Stewart highlighting the tumultuous global political climate marked by the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States, the unexpected rise of Geert Wilders' party in the Netherlands, and the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Frans Timmermans on the State of the World ([02:05])

Timmermans reflects on the unpredictable nature of global politics, drawing parallels to significant historical events like the fall of the Berlin Wall. He laments the "lack of imagination" among European diplomats and policymakers, which has led to unforeseen developments. "We still have a lack of imagination. We just can't imagine the extent of the changes that can occur, and then we can't imagine the consequences of those changes," he asserts ([02:05]).

The Challenges of European Enlargement ([07:41])

Timmermans delves into the complexities of the European Union's expansion, particularly the 2004 enlargement that saw over a dozen Eastern European countries join the EU. He attributes the subsequent rise in nationalism to the EU's overconfidence and inability to manage the diverse economic, cultural, and political differences among the new member states. "We reduced the European saga... to simply the Common Market," he explains ([07:41]).

Brexit and Its Impact ([17:10])

Addressing Brexit, Timmermans expresses personal disappointment and underscores its detrimental effects on both the EU and the UK. He believes the departure has weakened the EU's standing on the global stage and diminished the UK's international influence. "We all lost tremendously," he states ([17:21]). He also discusses potential pathways for rapprochement, emphasizing creative collaborations like participating in the EU’s energy union as alternatives to full membership ([18:59]).

The Trump Factor and EU Strategy ([21:13])

Timmermans offers a critical analysis of Donald Trump's foreign policy, likening his worldview to a flawed territorial divide where global powers carve up regions for their own benefit. He warns of the dangers this poses to European unity and global stability. "It's exactly the same game as in the 19th century," he warns ([21:13]).

Responding to Populism and Nationalism ([30:26])

In discussing the rise of populism, Timmermans emphasizes the importance of authenticity in political leadership. He recounts his own struggles with personal attacks from the radical right and advocates for leaders to remain genuine rather than adopting aggressive populist tactics. "Don't try and be somebody you're not, because people see it and people will not like you for it," he advises ([30:26]).

The Role of the Left in Modern Politics ([35:43])

Timmermans argues that progressive parties must embrace more ambitious left-wing policies to effectively counter populist movements. He highlights the necessity of systemic changes, such as reforming taxation to address economic inequalities and exerting democratic control over large conglomerates. "The left should take a lead in this," he asserts ([38:38]).

Optimism for Europe's Future ([50:46])

Concluding on a hopeful note, Timmermans envisions a Europe that strengthens its ties with the Global South, invests in sustainable development, and leads the charge in combating climate change through technological and policy innovations. He emphasizes the resilience and adaptability of humanity as key drivers for a brighter future. "There's a bright future for all of us... we totally underestimate the incredible force of humanity to adapt to new challenges," he proclaims ([50:46]).

Notable Quotes

• Frans Timmermans on Lack of Imagination: "We still have a lack of imagination. We just can't imagine the extent of the changes that can occur, and then we can't imagine the consequences of those changes." ([02:05])

• On European Enlargement and Nationalism: "We reduced the European saga... to simply the Common Market." ([07:41])

• Brexit's Detrimental Effects: "We all lost tremendously." ([17:21])

• Trump's Flawed Worldview: "It's exactly the same game as in the 19th century." ([21:13])

• Authenticity in Leadership: "Don't try and be somebody you're not, because people see it and people will not like you for it." ([30:26])

• Role of the Left: "The left should take a lead in this." ([38:38])

• Optimism for the Future: "There's a bright future for all of us... we totally underestimate the incredible force of humanity to adapt to new challenges." ([50:46])

Concluding Thoughts

Frans Timmermans offers a candid and comprehensive analysis of Europe's current challenges, particularly in navigating the rise of populism, the repercussions of Brexit, and the overarching influence of figures like Donald Trump. His insights underscore the need for imaginative and authentic political leadership, systemic reforms, and a renewed commitment to global cooperation and sustainability. The conversation encapsulates a blend of critical reflection and hopeful vision, providing listeners with a nuanced understanding of Europe's potential pathways forward amidst global uncertainties.