The Rest Is Politics: Leading

Episode 179: President Stubb: Trump’s Unlikely Best Friend
Release Date: March 9, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart
Guest: Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth interview with Alexander Stubb, President of Finland. Hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart explore Stubb's personal and political journey, delving into his upbringing, sporting passions, academic path, and his unexpected rise to political leadership. The conversation focuses on themes of leadership in a rapidly changing world, the evolution of global order, democracy's current challenges, and the pressing need for institutional reform. The episode also highlights Stubb's relationships with global leaders—including Donald Trump—and his views on the role of “middle powers” like Finland and the UK.

Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. Early Life and Sporting Aspirations

• Family and Languages: Raised in a bilingual Finnish-Swedish family; emphasis on internationalism and sport.
  • "I grew up very much in a bilingual family. So I spoke Finnish with my mother and Swedish with my dad and Finnish with my younger brother. The two languages have nothing in common." (00:35, Stubb)
• Ice Hockey and Golf: Childhood dream of becoming a professional athlete, spurred by his father’s leadership in Finland’s ice hockey scene.
• First US Experiences: Early trips to America through sports, critical for learning English and fostering an international outlook.
  • "Our ice hockey team sold matchboxes from door to door to, you know, scramble some money. And then we flew to New York... The subsequent summer I spent both in Missouri and in Canada. So basically picking up the language." (01:44, Stubb)

2. Academic Journey and Entry into Politics

• Academic Roots: Studied in the US, aimed for economics and golf before gravitating toward international relations.
  • “The idea was to study economics and then... Basically become a golf professional. But I very quickly noticed that economics is not my thing.” (02:08, Stubb)
• EU Expertise: Recognized as an expert on EU affairs; involved in treaty negotiations (Amsterdam, Nice, Lisbon).
• Political Entry: Elected MEP almost by accident after being a prominent commentator.
  • “I ended up getting second most votes in the nation because I'd been very much the EU expert commentating stuff...” (04:44, Stubb)

3. National Political Leadership

• Rapid Rise: Transitioned from academia and civil service to Foreign Minister, then Trade & European Affairs, Finance Minister, and Prime Minister—often unexpectedly.
  • “I kind of became Prime Minister by accident. I was supposed to become Commissioner. My predecessor as PM decided that he'd had enough. After three years of being pm, I fully understood now why.” (05:36, Stubb)
• On Being Prime Minister: Describes premiership as extremely challenging, an ‘impossible job’ compared to more focused roles.
  • “Being a Prime minister is probably the worst job that you can have in the country. The pressure is constant.” (11:40, Stubb)
• Relief on Leaving: Candidly shares the feeling of liberation after losing the leadership challenge and stepping back from frontline politics.
  • “When I lost the election, my wife and I, we went for a run and opened a bottle of champagne and started immediately thinking about our future.” (10:50, Stubb)

4. Return to Politics—Triggered by Global Events

• Catalyst—Ukraine War: Putin’s 2022 invasion prompted Stubb’s return, believing in the need for strong, principled leadership during a time of international crisis.
  • “I would not be here was it not for Putin's and Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine.” (12:46, Stubb)
• NATO Membership Advocacy: Long-time proponent of Finnish NATO membership, despite domestic unpopularity; credits subsequent public support shift to geopolitical reality.

5. The Evolving World Order—Key Arguments from Stubb’s Book

• Triangle of Rebalancing: Framework for understanding global power shifts:
  • Global West—traditionally US-led order, now in flux.
    • “The Global west, formerly led by the United States, supported the old liberal international order...” (15:00, Stubb)
  • Global East—led by China, supported by Russia, champions multipolarity.
  • Global South—a diverse bloc that will ultimately determine the next world order; urges “values based realism and dignified foreign policy” toward this group.
• Defining Historical Moments: Sees 24 Feb 2022 (Ukraine invasion) as transformative for world order, more significant than prior crises.
  • “This is the 1918, 1945 or 1989 moment of our generation. And we can get it wrong. As they did after World War I...” (13:29, Stubb)
• Critique of Complacency: West's “end of history” mindset post-Cold War was dangerously naïve.
• Power Diffusion: Argues against the idea of a few big powers dictating outcomes, seeing a more fragmented, unpredictable system.
  • “Power today scattered kaleidoscope style into a dizzying array of ever changing shapes and combinations.” (18:23, host quoting Stubb's book)

6. Democracy’s Strains in the Digital Age

• Systemic Lag: Democratic systems, designed for slower communication, now struggle under social media pressures and 24/7 scrutiny.
  • “Democracy hasn't upgraded itself to the technological age... If you don't react... within seconds, you get scolded. Now the pressure comes from so many different sour[ces]...” (07:59, Stubb)
• Navigating Modern Communication: Trump’s instinct to dominate the news cycle cited as effective but unsustainable for most.

7. Perspectives on China, the Arctic, and Security

• China as Strategic Player: Cautious, long-term focused; contrasts China’s economic and technological expansion with Russia’s declining, land-oriented power.
  • "China is a very patient and a very strategic power... They’re actually quite good at reaching their targets. Their approach is much more patient, for instance, in comparison to Russia, which is an expansive imperialist power, declining power.” (21:17, Stubb)
• Arctic Security: Finland’s military and strategic preparedness in the Arctic; importance of Arctic Council, now fractured by Russia’s actions.
  • “We have the largest artillery in Europe together with Poland. And our whole defense composure is based on an Arctic defense.” (23:47, Stubb)

8. European Security and Institutional Reform

• EU Defense: Need for closer UK-EU defense integration, despite practical and political obstacles.
  • “European defense without UK presence is much weaker. So we just have to work through these differences and bring the UK closer Again. Again.” (27:29, Stubb)
• United Nations Reform: Advocates doubling Security Council membership and eliminating veto powers; calls for more representation for Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
  • “The proposal in the book... is to double... the UN security causes dysfunction... So what do we need to do? We need to double the membership from 5 to 10... And get rid of the veto.” (29:33–30:06, Stubb)

9. Middle Powers and Punching Above Their Weight

• UK’s Transition: Praises the UK’s ability to redefine international role post-empire; urges the UK to ‘come back’ to the EU.
  • “Empires in this world have been able to transition to become middle powers, and then the United Kingdom is the greatest example thereof.” (34:44, Stubb)
  • “I hope we're seeing a sequence whereby it took you seven years to negotiate yourselves out of the European Union. It'll take you seven years to regret it, and then seven years to renegotiate yourself, yourself back in there. We need you back.” (35:41, Stubb)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On This Political Era:
  “This is the 1918, 1945 or 1989 moment of our generation. And we can get it wrong.” (13:29, Stubb)

• On Democracy and Tech:
  “Democracy hasn't upgraded itself to the technological age… Everything is so quick, an instant. If you don't react to something on X or something within seconds, you get scolded.” (07:59, Stubb)

• On the Prime Minister’s Job:
  “Being a Prime minister is probably the worst job that you can have in the country. The pressure is constant.” (11:40, Stubb)

• On UK’s Global Role:
  “The United Kingdom is the greatest example...to redefine itself as a middle power... I would give kudos to the United Kingdom and continue to do what you do. And please come back to the European Union at one stage.” (34:44, Stubb)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:35: Stubb on family, childhood, and sports background
• 03:00: Academic career, entry into European affairs
• 04:44: Election to the European Parliament
• 05:36: Accidental rise to Prime Minister
• 07:59: On democracy’s stress under technology and social media
• 12:46: Decision to return to politics after Ukraine invasion
• 13:29: Introduction to Stubb’s new book, "Triangle of Rebalancing"
• 15:00: World order framework (West, East, South)
• 21:17: China’s long-term strategy vs. Russia and US approaches
• 23:47: Arctic security and Finland’s NATO stance
• 29:33–30:06: UN Security Council reform proposal
• 34:44: Lessons for UK and the role of middle powers

Conclusion

The Rest Is Politics: Leading presents a wide-ranging conversation with President Alexander Stubb, exploring how small and medium powers can make a global impact amid tectonic global shifts. Stubb brings clarity, wit, and candor to questions of leadership, the changing world order, and the pressures on modern democracy. His book’s core message—of “competition, conflict, and cooperation”—frames the urgent need for institutional reforms and creative internationalism in an era dominated by both rising powers and persistent crises.

Recommended for listeners interested in:

• Political leadership
• European and global affairs
• Institutional reform
• Democracy and technology
• Modern geopolitics and security