179. President Stubb: Trump’s Unlikely Best Friend

Summary

The Rest Is Politics: Leading

Episode 179: President Stubb: Trump’s Unlikely Best Friend
Release Date: March 9, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart
Guest: Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

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Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth interview with Alexander Stubb, President of Finland. Hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart explore Stubb's personal and political journey, delving into his upbringing, sporting passions, academic path, and his unexpected rise to political leadership. The conversation focuses on themes of leadership in a rapidly changing world, the evolution of global order, democracy's current challenges, and the pressing need for institutional reform. The episode also highlights Stubb's relationships with global leaders—including Donald Trump—and his views on the role of “middle powers” like Finland and the UK.

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Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. Early Life and Sporting Aspirations

• Family and Languages: Raised in a bilingual Finnish-Swedish family; emphasis on internationalism and sport.
  • "I grew up very much in a bilingual family. So I spoke Finnish with my mother and Swedish with my dad and Finnish with my younger brother. The two languages have nothing in common." (00:35, Stubb)
• Ice Hockey and Golf: Childhood dream of becoming a professional athlete, spurred by his father’s leadership in Finland’s ice hockey scene.
• First US Experiences: Early trips to America through sports, critical for learning English and fostering an international outlook.
  • "Our ice hockey team sold matchboxes from door to door to, you know, scramble some money. And then we flew to New York... The subsequent summer I spent both in Missouri and in Canada. So basically picking up the language." (01:44, Stubb)

2. Academic Journey and Entry into Politics

• Academic Roots: Studied in the US, aimed for economics and golf before gravitating toward international relations.
  • “The idea was to study economics and then... Basically become a golf professional. But I very quickly noticed that economics is not my thing.” (02:08, Stubb)
• EU Expertise: Recognized as an expert on EU affairs; involved in treaty negotiations (Amsterdam, Nice, Lisbon).
• Political Entry: Elected MEP almost by accident after being a prominent commentator.
  • “I ended up getting second most votes in the nation because I'd been very much the EU expert commentating stuff...” (04:44, Stubb)

3. National Political Leadership

• Rapid Rise: Transitioned from academia and civil service to Foreign Minister, then Trade & European Affairs, Finance Minister, and Prime Minister—often unexpectedly.
  • “I kind of became Prime Minister by accident. I was supposed to become Commissioner. My predecessor as PM decided that he'd had enough. After three years of being pm, I fully understood now why.” (05:36, Stubb)
• On Being Prime Minister: Describes premiership as extremely challenging, an ‘impossible job’ compared to more focused roles.
  • “Being a Prime minister is probably the worst job that you can have in the country. The pressure is constant.” (11:40, Stubb)
• Relief on Leaving: Candidly shares the feeling of liberation after losing the leadership challenge and stepping back from frontline politics.
  • “When I lost the election, my wife and I, we went for a run and opened a bottle of champagne and started immediately thinking about our future.” (10:50, Stubb)

4. Return to Politics—Triggered by Global Events

• Catalyst—Ukraine War: Putin’s 2022 invasion prompted Stubb’s return, believing in the need for strong, principled leadership during a time of international crisis.
  • “I would not be here was it not for Putin's and Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine.” (12:46, Stubb)
• NATO Membership Advocacy: Long-time proponent of Finnish NATO membership, despite domestic unpopularity; credits subsequent public support shift to geopolitical reality.

5. The Evolving World Order—Key Arguments from Stubb’s Book

• Triangle of Rebalancing: Framework for understanding global power shifts:
  • Global West—traditionally US-led order, now in flux.
    • “The Global west, formerly led by the United States, supported the old liberal international order...” (15:00, Stubb)
  • Global East—led by China, supported by Russia, champions multipolarity.
  • Global South—a diverse bloc that will ultimately determine the next world order; urges “values based realism and dignified foreign policy” toward this group.
• Defining Historical Moments: Sees 24 Feb 2022 (Ukraine invasion) as transformative for world order, more significant than prior crises.
  • “This is the 1918, 1945 or 1989 moment of our generation. And we can get it wrong. As they did after World War I...” (13:29, Stubb)
• Critique of Complacency: West's “end of history” mindset post-Cold War was dangerously naïve.
• Power Diffusion: Argues against the idea of a few big powers dictating outcomes, seeing a more fragmented, unpredictable system.
  • “Power today scattered kaleidoscope style into a dizzying array of ever changing shapes and combinations.” (18:23, host quoting Stubb's book)

6. Democracy’s Strains in the Digital Age

• Systemic Lag: Democratic systems, designed for slower communication, now struggle under social media pressures and 24/7 scrutiny.
  • “Democracy hasn't upgraded itself to the technological age... If you don't react... within seconds, you get scolded. Now the pressure comes from so many different sour[ces]...” (07:59, Stubb)
• Navigating Modern Communication: Trump’s instinct to dominate the news cycle cited as effective but unsustainable for most.

7. Perspectives on China, the Arctic, and Security

• China as Strategic Player: Cautious, long-term focused; contrasts China’s economic and technological expansion with Russia’s declining, land-oriented power.
  • "China is a very patient and a very strategic power... They’re actually quite good at reaching their targets. Their approach is much more patient, for instance, in comparison to Russia, which is an expansive imperialist power, declining power.” (21:17, Stubb)
• Arctic Security: Finland’s military and strategic preparedness in the Arctic; importance of Arctic Council, now fractured by Russia’s actions.
  • “We have the largest artillery in Europe together with Poland. And our whole defense composure is based on an Arctic defense.” (23:47, Stubb)

8. European Security and Institutional Reform

• EU Defense: Need for closer UK-EU defense integration, despite practical and political obstacles.
  • “European defense without UK presence is much weaker. So we just have to work through these differences and bring the UK closer Again. Again.” (27:29, Stubb)
• United Nations Reform: Advocates doubling Security Council membership and eliminating veto powers; calls for more representation for Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
  • “The proposal in the book... is to double... the UN security causes dysfunction... So what do we need to do? We need to double the membership from 5 to 10... And get rid of the veto.” (29:33–30:06, Stubb)

9. Middle Powers and Punching Above Their Weight

• UK’s Transition: Praises the UK’s ability to redefine international role post-empire; urges the UK to ‘come back’ to the EU.
  • “Empires in this world have been able to transition to become middle powers, and then the United Kingdom is the greatest example thereof.” (34:44, Stubb)
  • “I hope we're seeing a sequence whereby it took you seven years to negotiate yourselves out of the European Union. It'll take you seven years to regret it, and then seven years to renegotiate yourself, yourself back in there. We need you back.” (35:41, Stubb)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On This Political Era:
  “This is the 1918, 1945 or 1989 moment of our generation. And we can get it wrong.” (13:29, Stubb)

• On Democracy and Tech:
  “Democracy hasn't upgraded itself to the technological age… Everything is so quick, an instant. If you don't react to something on X or something within seconds, you get scolded.” (07:59, Stubb)

• On the Prime Minister’s Job:
  “Being a Prime minister is probably the worst job that you can have in the country. The pressure is constant.” (11:40, Stubb)

• On UK’s Global Role:
  “The United Kingdom is the greatest example...to redefine itself as a middle power... I would give kudos to the United Kingdom and continue to do what you do. And please come back to the European Union at one stage.” (34:44, Stubb)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:35: Stubb on family, childhood, and sports background
• 03:00: Academic career, entry into European affairs
• 04:44: Election to the European Parliament
• 05:36: Accidental rise to Prime Minister
• 07:59: On democracy’s stress under technology and social media
• 12:46: Decision to return to politics after Ukraine invasion
• 13:29: Introduction to Stubb’s new book, "Triangle of Rebalancing"
• 15:00: World order framework (West, East, South)
• 21:17: China’s long-term strategy vs. Russia and US approaches
• 23:47: Arctic security and Finland’s NATO stance
• 29:33–30:06: UN Security Council reform proposal
• 34:44: Lessons for UK and the role of middle powers

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Conclusion

The Rest Is Politics: Leading presents a wide-ranging conversation with President Alexander Stubb, exploring how small and medium powers can make a global impact amid tectonic global shifts. Stubb brings clarity, wit, and candor to questions of leadership, the changing world order, and the pressures on modern democracy. His book’s core message—of “competition, conflict, and cooperation”—frames the urgent need for institutional reforms and creative internationalism in an era dominated by both rising powers and persistent crises.

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Recommended for listeners interested in:

• Political leadership
• European and global affairs
• Institutional reform
• Democracy and technology
• Modern geopolitics and security

Transcript

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Thanks for listening to the Rest is Politics. Sign up to the Rest is Politics plus to enjoy ad free listening, receive a weekly newsletter, join our members chat room and gain early access to live show tickets. Just go to therestispolitics.com that's therestispolitics.com. Listeners. It's great to have you here. Thank you so much for giving us your time. Let's just start with your childhood. Growing up in Finland, what your parents did, what your life was like, and whether you ever imagined that you'd have the life that you've had.

[Alexander Stubb]

The short answer is no. But life was good when I was young. So I grew up very much in a bilingual family. So I spoke Finnish with my mother and Swedish with my dad and Finnish with my younger brother. The two languages have nothing in common. I started in a Finnish school and switched over in fourth grade to Swedish school because my left wing in my ice hockey team was in the Swedish speaking school. So of course I had to make the academic academic decision. I wasn't an academic kid. I dreamt about becoming a professional ice hockey player and later on.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

And your dad was big in ice hockey?

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah, he, he basically managed a team and he was the head of the Finnish Ice Hockey Federation. And then in 1983 he became the head of the National Hockey League Central Scouting in Europe. So all the European players that play in the NHL in the US and in Canada kind of go through him. So we were very much a sports family, if you will. And you know, I didn't get my academic awakening until I started studying in the US And I did my milit military service like all Finnish men at the time, but, you know, very much a regular Finnish type of background when I, when I was a kid. Quite international still.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

And your first visit to America then was when you were in your early teens?

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah, I was actually 13. Our ice hockey team sold matchboxes from door to door to, you know, scramble some money. And then we flew to New York and went to St. Louis to play a little bit of ice hockey. And the subsequent summer I spent both in Missouri and in Canada. So basically picking up the language. And then I did an exchange student here in a really tough place called Daytona Beach, Florida.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Was it tough?

[Alexander Stubb]

No, no, it wasn't. No, it wasn't. And it was, the idea was that, you know, I tried my bearings in golf and then eventually I, I, I ended up studying in the US Started there at the end of the Cold War in 1989 and the idea was to study economics and then Basically become a golf professional. But I, I very quickly noticed that economics is not my thing. Tournament with Phil Mickelson and noticed that I don't have his hands, not even from the right side. And then got myself immersed in studies and didn't.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

So hold on, if you're getting to play with Phil Mickelson, you, I mean, are you like scratch golfer?

[Alexander Stubb]

Well, I used to be when I used to kid. Yeah, yeah. But now, now I'm a little bit back in golf again for rather obvious reasons. I didn't play pretty much for 35 years. But these modern clubs, they hit by themselves.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Yeah, yeah. And so when did the kind of political impulses start and where did they come from?

[Alexander Stubb]

Quite late. I mean, I, I kind of, I, I sort. I've had three careers because the sports stuff didn't pan out. The first one was academic. I really just sat in the library, I went to lectures, I wrote and I just immersed myself in things. International, international relations. 89. You know, Finland was nowhere near the European Union membership yet. We only decided on that after the Soviet union collapsed in 1991. So I felt that I want to do academia and European Integration theory. And I pretty early on decided I want to do a PhD. And the reason was kind of strange. I had studied really hard for four years in the US at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina. I love the place. And I was proud of what I have achieved. Dean's list and straight A's and the rest of it, Phi Beta Kappa. And then I called the educational authorities in Finland, said, you know, hi, this is Alex. I have this ba. I said, well, it really doesn't mean much here in the Finnish system that you may get a couple of courses at Helsinki University. I said, screw this and decide, okay, I'll do an MA and then a PhD and then look back. So that was kind of my first career. But then in the academic world, I somehow felt that, okay, this theoretical stuff is super interesting in conceptualizing things, but I wanted to do practical things. So I was involved in the Finnish negotiating team for the Amsterdam Treaty and then for the Nice Treaty, and then later on for the Constitutional Convention, Lisbon Treaty. So I took very much a civil servant path. I was never a real diplomat, but I always had contracts with the Ministry for Foreign affairs and then only really When I was 36, in 2004, I got my first political thoughts and it was very much a Europeanist.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

And you became an mep?

[Alexander Stubb]

Became an MEP out of the blue because, I mean, we had, it's personal Votes. And I ended up getting second most votes in the nation because I'd been very much the EU expert commentating stuff and was supposed to stay in Brussels until.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

So then you get into government.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah. And that was almost by mistake in the sense that my predecessor's Foreign minister was involved in a scandal and had to resign and I was asked to. To move over to Helsinki. Our kids had been born in Belgium. My wife was working in a law firm in Belgium. So I asked my then party chairman that how much time do we have to decide? 24 hours. So we hummed and hummed overnight actually in Lapland. We were there skiing or something and then decide, okay, let's do it. And that was in 2008. Became foreign minister. That was very much my dream job.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

I get the feeling that when you became Prime Minister, that was less of a dream job.

[Alexander Stubb]

Oh God, yes. So my first six years in government was Foreign Minister and then a combination of trade and Europe and then I kind of became Prime Minister by accident. I was supposed to become Commissioner. My predecessor as PM decided that he'd had enough. After three years of being pm, I fully understood now why

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

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[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Why was it so? Why did you find it so hard?

[Alexander Stubb]

This is the thing I always say is that when you're Prime Minister of a country, whether you're Keir Starmer or Friedrich Marz or whoever, a majority of the population want you to fail for ideological reasons. Whereas when you're president, because my sort of powers are about foreign policy and commander in chief, everyone wants you to succeed. So the starting point is different.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

So is your current prime minister. And will he be feeling the same sort of pressure that you felt?

[Alexander Stubb]

He. He certainly is. And I, I think I'm a good psychotherapist for him. You know, we're very good friends, so I, I keep on giving him encouragement. And every subsequent prime minister, after my own experience, I've always, you know, wanted them to succeed because it's kind of mission impossible.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Do you think democracy is becoming impossible? Do you think democracy is becoming ungovernable?

[Alexander Stubb]

Well, no, because I, I do think that we have corrective measures in the system that still work, but I think democracy hasn't upgraded itself to the technological age. I mean, democracy was crafted by John Locke and Hobbes and Montesquieu and Rousseau at a time when there were no technological devices. You could take three months to answer something. Democracy was supposed to be muddling through and compromised and all of these things. And then now everything is so quick, an instant. If you don't react to something on X or something within seconds, you get scolded. And now the pressure comes from so many different sour. Before, it just came from your regular media. Now it comes from social media, it comes from podcasts like these. So, yeah, it's difficult.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

I think that too many of today's politicians haven't got to a place where they can somehow navigate that almost by ignoring it or by understanding that the changes give you the opportunity to create your own messaging, your own channels. That kind of what Trump does.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah, I mean, I guess, but I think, you know, you guys with, with Tony Blair in 1997, and I remember I was living in London on the 1st of May, then, you know, you guys took a completely new angle. And for me, it felt that this was one of the last opportunities to go for radical change in a system and then communicate it. And because you worked with communication, you know exactly what I mean, now it's uncontrollable. I'm sitting here with my spokeswoman and, you know, we, we make no amends. We can't control the media.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

So you can only control what you say and what you do.

[Alexander Stubb]

Exactly.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

And then you have shape the messaging around that.

[Alexander Stubb]

You do.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Trump does.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah, he does. And he's, of course, quite good at it. The difference there is that I think Trump's DNA is to be number one in the news cycle 24 7. I've tried to suggest to my team on occasion, can't we have these sort of extempore two hour press conferences from my office, but for some reason been rejected. They don't trust my communications, you see. Clear.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

I think you're quite a good communicator. So you go through your Prime Minister when you stopped being Prime Minister in 2015?

[Alexander Stubb]

2015, I became Finance minister.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Right. Now, did you feel then that that was a pathway out of politics and into a different life?

[Alexander Stubb]

Not yet, but I mean, the years from 2014 to 2016 were the most difficult years in my life because I wasn't in my comfort zone. I was never into national politics and I probably didn't cope with it as well as I should have. Having said that, we finished second in the elections. I became finance Minister. But then I was challenged from the insight, actually from the guy who is now the Prime Minister, my good friend. And a lot of people said, you know, why is he challenging back and why is he not unhappy that he lost the leadership challenge? Well, for me, it was kind of Liberation day.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Did you genuinely feel that?

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah, I felt, you know, like, I remember when I lost the election, my wife and I, we went for a run and opened a bottle of champagne and started immediately thinking about our future. I mean, I was really glad that I had served, but eight years in government was too much. I was asked to continue, but I said no.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

It's really interesting now. Been a foreign minister and felt okay,

[Alexander Stubb]

you've been really good.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

You've been a finance minister and felt okay?

[Alexander Stubb]

No, I. I felt good with, with trade and Europe and Okay, so I was six years.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Because I sometimes think that people who are in politics and doing really big senior jobs in government, I think sometimes they underestimate the gap between, say, being a foreign minister and finance minister and being the prime minister for those who think they could be prime minister, and some of them can and could just give your assessment of what's the difference between being a senior cabinet minister, minister and actually being the Prime Minister.

[Alexander Stubb]

It's the difference between a good job and a bad job. Being a Prime minister is probably the worst job that you can have in the country. The pressure is constant. It doesn't hold up. In Finland, it's even more complicated because you're always in coalition governments. So you get basically pressure from your own party, you get pressure from your own government ministers, you get pressure from the other parties, and then you get pressure from the opposition and you get pressure from the media. So you really have to be cool Calm and collected. And I admire a lot of the people that do it, including our current Prime Minister. I have a lot of administration for, you know, Keir Starmer, for FE Merz, actually, also for Emmanuel Macron and many others. See, my job is essentially half of the job of a Prime Minister because I only deal with foreign policy. And in that sense, as I said, all Finns want the President to succeed because you don't want to fail in foreign policy. And it's a different, different predicament.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

So you do all those government jobs and you go out of government, you go into academia, business and all that stuff and then you come back to become, to go for the presidency. Was it specifically the Ukraine war?

[Alexander Stubb]

The only and main reason? So basically I left day to day politics. I'd been in it for about 12 years, eight of those years in government in 2016, 2017. And my off ramp was the European Investment bank, which was super interesting. And I felt that, oh, why didn't I do this before I was Finance Minister? Because suddenly I felt that, oh, I understand a little bit about the financial markets, which, yes, a bit superficial, but nevertheless. And then I had a chance to go into academia and I thought I'd be in there. And that's when I wrote the book and felt that, you know, this is a good time to read and analyze and build a new school or a new institution. And I would not be here was it not for Putin's and Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

Mr. President, your book. Could you provide a little overview? Let's begin with the Global west, the east and the South.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah. So the name of the book is the Triangle of Rebalancing the New World Order. And the starting point is to say what everyone is now saying, that the world order is changing. And I think this is the 1918, 1945 or 1989 moment of our generation. And we can get it wrong. As they did after World War I, the League of nations wasn't strong enough, and after two decades, World War II broke out. We can get it more or less right, as our leaders did in 1945 with the creation of the United nations and four decades of virtual peace during the Cold War. Tight situations, but nevertheless so institutional control. Or then we can be intellectual lazy, as we were after the Cold War when we made an assumption that history ended and it would all be about green fields and rainbows and peace signs and liberal democracy and social market economy and globalization. And my argument is that the moment that it all changed was 24 February 2022, when Russia attacked Ukraine. And then of course, this has all been accelerated by the new U.S. administration. And the rebalancing of a new order will take, I'd say, you know, another five years before we're there.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

One of the jokes you can imagine was to say, this is a wonderful book which put five years in, but the Global south and the Global east are doing fine. It's the Global west that's the problem now. And just to explain to readers, the Global west is a construct that includes Europe, uk, Canada, Japan, South Korea, but also unfortunately includes the United States, which is a big challenge.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah. So the framework of the triangle is to say that the Global west, formerly led by the United States, supported the old liberal international order. So basically multilateralism, the un, the wto, the imf, the World Bank.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

When you just said formally, I think

[Alexander Stubb]

the jury is out. And if you look at the National Security Strategy, which I'm happy to talk about, it obviously rejects that order. And if we just listen to Marco Rubio's speech, he says the order is still there, but we're going to transform, which is, I think, good news. Then you have the Global east, which is led by China, followed by Russia, which is more into multipolarity. So it doesn't necessarily want to pool the sovereignty that we've done during the 80 years of the liberal world order. And essentially the Global south, which I know is unfair to lump 125 countries, many of the middle powers, into one. They will be the ones who decide the direction of the order. And my argument then is for the Global West. If you want to maintain the remnants of the order, you need to reach out to the Global South. You need to use values based realism and dignified foreign policy. And I think that's what China is doing quite well right now.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

And it's interesting. So you say 1918, 1945, 1989, and you said the turning point now was 2022. You think it was that rather than Trump term?

[Alexander Stubb]

Oh, yeah, certainly that. Because you have a permanent member of the UN Security Council violating everything that the UN stands for and basically trying to destroy the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of a neighboring country. Now, I'm not saying that American foreign policy in Iraq has been spotless or that the international order has always been pitch perfect, but this is one of the largest violations that we've seen.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

And Mr. President, why that not 2014? I mean, looking back, the Russian invasion of Crimea and indeed invasions of Georgia and other things seem to be very, very similar to what's going on in Ukraine. And maybe we were actually 10 years too late to notice what was going on.

[Alexander Stubb]

Well, I was intimately involved in mediating peace in Georgia because I was foreign minister and chairman of the osc Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. And we able to get a ceasefire in five days. And then, of course, you know, President Sarkozy was involved after that. I gave a speech which was called 080808 because the war started on the 8th of August 2008. And I made a claim that this could be the end of the old order because Russia is showing its imperial DNA again. It's using aggression, got quite a lot of pushback, saying, hey, young man, don't push it. This is going too far. 2014, I think there's an argument there that we should have woken up, smelt the coffee, but we didn't. We still felt that the end of history is upon us. If we just continue to cooperate with Russia, they're going to fall into place and become a normal state.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

And the idea was that after 2014, that that would be the end of it. Putin wouldn't want anything more.

[Alexander Stubb]

And of course it wasn't because he believes in russkimir great Russia, which is one Russia, one language, one religion and one leader, leader himself. But the difference from 2014 and 2022 is the scale of the invasion, because I think in 2014, he only went for Crimea and then Donetsk and luhansk. Now in 2022, he tried to go for Kyiv and thought that he'd do it in 72 days. And here we are four years later. It has been a strategic and military disaster for Putin.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

The coverage of the book was essentially about the triangle. Good marketing, get the title. And then that's the big argument in the book. Global West, Global East, Global South. But I was really struck by this line. Power today scattered kaleidoscope style into a dizzying array of ever changing shapes and combinations. In 1990, the US appeared to command the globe. Now small command centers appear everywhere, which makes it hard to contain countries diverging interests or connect them to the common good. Is that right? Isn't the change actually that the really big powers are in charge of all of these connections? And that's the world that Xi Jinping wants, that's the world that Trump wants, and that's the world that Putin thinks he can create. And you think actually he's already failing in doing so. But I just wondered what you meant by that. Is that sort of small? And is that a mark Carney, vision of the world?

[Alexander Stubb]

No, I think Mark Carney and I, we, of course, speak a lot. And, you know, we talk about the changing world order. The difference that Mark and I have is that he talks about a rupture or destruction of the old order, and I talk about transition because I don't think we should throw the baby out with the bathwater. I sometimes wonder, should I have called it the rectangle of power? Because if the US wants to take the Western hemisphere, let's call it the Global west, and then call the traditional global West, Europe, Japan, Korea, we call it the Global North. But triangle of power is what it is. I think there are two pillars that are in this sort of fight which are linked to your question. One is the multipolar one with Xi Jinping, probably with President Trump, with Putin. They talk in terms of transactions and deals and spheres of interest. So it's a little bit of concert of powers of the 19th century. And then another group which talks the language of multilateralism. So international institutions, rules and norms and cooperation. And yes, the big ones will always do what they want, and we small ones do what we can. But what we can do is to try to convince the middle powers. Here's where Carney comes in to support multilateralism. When I was at the G20, not because Finland is in the G20 with G30, but I was there in Johannesburg, you know, I detected that 18 out of the 20 G's all supported multilateralism. Why? Because they feel that if that's not the case, the big ones will rule.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

President Stub. Rory, quick break and then back for more.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

Mr. President, China. Tell us about it. Because the US, China and Russia seem to have very different relationships to this rectangle of power. We have different dependencies on these different countries. They have different views about expansion. Some of them may want to reincorporate one bit of territory. Some of them may want to actually topple other people's governments to invasions. How would you describe China's perspective on the world and what you think they would want to achieve over the next 20, 30 years? In the worst case, in the best case, yeah.

[Alexander Stubb]

I think China is a very patient and a very strategic power. I've had the opportunity to have long conversations with President Xi Jinping three times,

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

including one of your best jokes of all time as you stood on the thing and you said, here we are together. We represent, what is it, 1.4 billion people.

[Alexander Stubb]

I think I stole it from the Luxembourg. So the bottom line there is that, that it's a very strategic power. And it of course looks at a century of history just as a page in the history book. And it is trying to become the superpower of the world and is the second superpower of the world right now. And it does it through different types of programs like the Belt and Road Initiative or Great China 2025, whatever there is. And they're actually quite good at reaching their targets. Their approach is much more patient, for instance, in comparison to Russia, which is an expansive imperialist power, declining power. I mean, we forget that the size of the Russian economy in 1990 was the same with China. And now China is 10 times bigger. And they're also declining power in the sense that they live on the acquisition of land, which is a little bit old fashioned. Whereas China is doing more the economic and trade and manufacturing and artificially intelligence side. Then of course we have the United States, which is still a very strong superpower, will continue to be. So I never want to compare these three, and especially when it comes to sovereignty and territorial integrity. But there have been claims on Greenland, which breaks the old order. There might be claims on Taiwan, which will break the order. And of course there have been claims on Ukraine. So we are kind of in a transition period right now. And the question is how we get it back.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

We've just, just recorded a mini series on the podcast about war in the Arctic.

[Alexander Stubb]

I listened to the 18 minutes, but I didn't sign up yet.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Oh, you're not a member.

[Alexander Stubb]

I'm not a member yet.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Come on.

[Alexander Stubb]

But I, I bought, I bought the book and I'll have to become a member.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Okay. And obviously, and I talked in the thing about the map and there, of course you're there.

[Alexander Stubb]

We're big.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

You're right, huge. And the author of that book, and thank you for listening to the 19 minutes actually that we gave.

[Alexander Stubb]

Really good. I, I recommend every listener to listen to.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Just give us your perspective on that because I get the feeling that it's one of those debates that we just haven't been having. And yet now here we are talking about, is this the sort of place that the next big global confrontation could be sparked? What's your answer to that?

[Alexander Stubb]

Okay, so in 2009, when I was foreign minister, we actually did the first Finnish Arctic strategy. And the take is very similar actually to the discussion that you had in the podcast, that it's really about three things, security, economy and climate. And they're all sort of intermixed in many different ways. Now there's a strong focus on that now There used to be something called the Arctic Council. It still exists, but that one had eight countries in it, including Russia. And of course now the Arctic Council is not working, so we're talking more about the Arctic 7, which would then include the 5 Nordics, the US and Canada. For us, as an Arctic country, we're happy that the focus is on the Arctic because we have Arctic know how we live in Arctic conditions. And actually, if you look at life in the Arctic Circle, the most sort of focused part of it is Finland, Sweden and Norway. Now, of course, the Arctic has been up there because of Greenland, and we want to stress that Greenland is very important. But when it comes to Arctic security, it happens somewhere else. And that is basically in the north of Finland, Sweden and Norway, because of course Russia has strong nuclear presence up there in that region. There are a couple of things that I've been a bit dismayed about. When someone says that we don't project power in the Arctic, I say, okay, Finland has obligatory military service, so we have trained 1 million men and women to fight in Arctic conditions. We have have 62 F18s. We just bought 64 F35s. We have long range missiles, air, land and sea. We have the largest artillery in Europe together with Poland. And our whole defense composure is based on an Arctic defense. So if someone wants to come and learn about how to defend yourself in the Arctic, then you're welcome. And you know, NATO, we are now in NATO.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Was that part of your return to.

[Alexander Stubb]

It was very much a part of my return to politics because as you might know, I was always an advocate of Finnish NATO membership when it wasn't popular. Took quite a few hits on it. 20% of the population was in favor of NATO, you know, 50 against and 30 undecided. So when we had these conversations at home with my wife, who is now dual national, born in the UK and now British and Finnish, and we sort of had this conversation that should we do it again? She was kind of the one pushing and saying, listen, we're now in NATO. This is really good for the alliance. Why don't you go ahead, tell me

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

about how we're going to build your order. We're here in Munich and what strikes me is that the attempts to try to do the sort of things that Ewan, in a different way, Mark Carney are talking about are continually being torpedoed. So the European Union and Britain have been unable to actually come together to do their defense agreement. It all collapsed. I don't know political will or civil servants, whatever. France is unable to sign up to the EU's deal with Mercosur. So every time there is a real test on how we're going to create new trading relationships, new defense relationships to balance, it goes wrong. Because the national policy, politics.

[Alexander Stubb]

Well, yes and no. I mean, first of all, we have to understand that the European Union or Europe is not a utopia. It's not a single entity. And I always sort of joke around and say that Europe advances in three stages. First there is a crisis, then there's chaos, and finally there's a suboptimal solution. And that's pretty much, you know, what we're all about.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

That's not a great rallying crisis.

[Alexander Stubb]

I know, I. I know. What do you want?

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Suboptimal solution.

[Alexander Stubb]

Solution, yeah. Big on political speeches, but I mean, you know, I look at the silver lining. So after 2016, of course, when the UK unfortunately left the European Union, or actually only in 2023, we have been trying to work out, okay, how can we bring UK closer to Europe? And I think Covid, I think Russia's attack on Ukraine, I think energy, now the transatlantic partnership. I don't even make a distinction anymore between meeting the UK prime minister or the French president. For me, they are the same. They're part of the big security umbrella. Then sometimes we get things right. Marcosur will go through, but there has been strong rejection to it, which I fundamentally disagree with. And then on the defense thing, I mean, we have to understand that European defense without UK presence is much weaker. So we just have to work through these differences and bring the UK closer Again. Again.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

What's going wrong, though? I mean, the defense thing is such a litmus test. I don't. It's so difficult to understand. It feels.

[Alexander Stubb]

That's money. That's money. Right. And here I think there's a little bit of, you know, some member states have EU envy about defense industries, etc. I will not name France. So. So there's a little bit, a little bit of that, and it's understandable. But I think for me, as coming from one of the largest militaries with a very vibrant defense industry, I would like to see the UK closer. And let's work on this within the NATO framework.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

And Keir Starmer's speech today is very much trying to point in that direction. One of the other proposals you make in the book is one that Rory and I have talked about this, and we completely agree, but it's. How do you get to it?

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah, I know what. And that is the UN Security Council.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Yeah. How do you reform the United Nations Security Council when it's built with the. This inbuilt veto of the five big powers, post war powers.

[Alexander Stubb]

I knew you Brits would ask that. So you probably want to give your seat to Finland. Was that.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

No, I would move towards possibly making it the European Union. I've got to say.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yeah, I've got to say. So, okay, the proposal in the book, you know, it's one which I made in my UN speech in September as well, and the previous September is to double. So to say that the UN security causes dysfunction because its basic function is to maintain peace and do peace mediation, but it's not succeeded in doing that and maintaining the international order and the rules and the norms. So what do we need to do? We need to double the membership from 5 to 10 because it symbolizes the world which existed post World War II and in the early 70s.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

And get rid of the veto.

[Alexander Stubb]

And get rid of the veto. And if you double the membership, you should take one from Latin America, two from Africa and two from Asia. And then Europe should rethink France, the uk, Germany, eu. How we do that? I'm a little bit agnostic to how Europe organizes it, but I would assume that the rest of the world is looking and saying, why does Europe with Russia have four seats in the UN Security Council? So it's a complicated mix. How do we get there? We get there by starting the conversation. Then you have different ways of doing it. Can we be in a situation where the General assembly votes in a different way with the UN Security Council, who rules over whom? So we just have to look at this more openly. And my argument is that the Global south needs to have agency because that reflects the world that we live in.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

Mr. President, part of the reason, I guess, why these powers were given vetoes is just to reflect the raw facts. I mean, these, particularly if you look at the big ones. Let's talk us, China. At the moment, it's very, very difficult to imagine a world in which US and China are against something, even if they don't have a formal veto. And the rest of the world is able to provide real protection, particularly if it's another one of the big powers that's doing the attack. So the system, League of Nations, un, I guess, is about protecting small countries against big and trying to create this. But if US and China and Russia, for whatever reasons, want to flex their muscles, nobody can really stand up them, even together, or it feels as though they can't.

[Alexander Stubb]

That is true. But then, you know, you Might as well be speaking of a Hobbesian dog eats dog type of a world where, you know, the big do what they want and we small, you know, kind of what we can. And I think the whole idea of global governance is that you end up pooling sovereignty in issues where you really need to cooperate. Trying to solve conflicts is one example. I mean, that is the core of the business of the United Nations. Fighting climate change is another example. And you try to find common compromises when you're dealing with this global governance. But of course, I fully understand that when you have nuclear powers like Russia, like China, like the United States, if they want to go the full mile, they can go the full mile.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

And in a sense, no amount of architecture, no amount of new design of multilateralism can compensate. If the three big powers don't want to play ball, if they don't want to be multilateral, it's not going to work.

[Alexander Stubb]

Yes, but if we go to a microcosm or a smaller example, which is the European Union, what happened after World War II? Three big states and three small states decided to pull sovereignty and create the European Coal and Steel Community and then the European Economic Community after that, which now has 27, soon 30, perhaps 35 members. And they're pooling sovereignty on issues that are very close to national control, like trade or competition, and have a currency, etc. Etc. So you know, let's not throw the baby out with a bathwater. I think the UN is still there,

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

given you very kindly plugged our miniseries and the book on which it was based, Final Plug to your book. So we taught not long ago to Moses Moises Naim, Venezuelan former minister and big thinker, and he talks about Trump populism being driven on three Cs, crime, corruption and cruelty. Okay, you have three very different Cs at the heart of your kind of conclusion, and that is competition, conflict and cooperation. How do they fit within this new world order that you want us to try to navigate?

[Alexander Stubb]

Okay, so the starting point is that the world is essentially competitive, whether it's about geopolitics, geoeconomics, technology, whatnot, but that competition without rules can easily spill over into conflict. And we're seeing now an increase in conflict, both local and regional, and we're trying to prevent a global one. And what is the solution for this world of competition, conflict? It is cooperation. And that's where we need to find the common rules in international institutions. And I think that's what we need to work at. We just need to revamp them and Reform them and get the world back on track.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

You're an extraordinary example of how the president of a small, medium sized country is having outsized influence. What lessons can countries like Britain take from this when they might feel they no longer have the raw economic and military power in terms of playing a useful role in shaping the world because we can often feel powerless.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

So roar. Can I just say, as your political guide, if you're still a politician, you're basically saying UK is the new.

[Alexander Stubb]

Finland is always saying the happiest country in the world.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

That's true.

[Alexander Stubb]

No, I mean, I certainly love. I actually think that empires, some empires in this world have been able to transition to become middle powers, and then the United Kingdom is the greatest example thereof. With your colonial past, with your Commonwealth past, to be able to find the position that you have in the world right now, I think is extraordinary. There are other countries that have not been able to deal with their past, and I think Russia is a good example thereof. They have not been able to cope with the past of the Soviet Union or Stalinism. Germany has been able to cope with their past. So in that sense, I would give kudos to the United Kingdom and continue to do what you do. And please come back to the European Union at one stage. And if I may finish off with this to the British audience to say that I hope we're seeing a sequence whereby it took you seven years to negotiate yourselves out of the European Union. It'll take you seven years to regret it, and then seven years to renegotiate yourself, yourself back in there. We need you back.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

And maybe that's the point at which the UK can lead the debate about reform of the United Nations Security Council.

[Alexander Stubb]

Why not?

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Exactly.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

Thank you very much.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Thanks for your time.

[Alexander Stubb]

My pleasure. Thank you.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Okay, Rory, so Alexander Stubb, my God, he's in good shape.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

He's in great shape, isn't he? I mean, you know, as, as we, as we go down the path of athlete leaders, we didn't explore completely this extraordinary fact that Stubbs angle, which has brought him to incredible prominence, is that he's a really, really good golf player as well as being really good at ice hockey.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

He wants to be a professional at

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

some point and he can spend nine hours on the golf course with Donald Trump and you get a lot of conversation done. Nine hours with President Trump. He's not quite as open, perhaps, as our interview with the governor of California on how exactly Trump's talking to him as they're driving around in the golf buggy. But again, Again, you can sort of see this strange world which people don't maybe think about enough in British politics, which is all these kind of film star looks, sporting achievements, et cetera, being part anyway of what's modern politics and certainly part of what Trump likes in politics. You notice that Trump absolutely adores, even with his adversaries, these sort of strange. Putting his arm around Zoram Dani, spraying the President of Syria with scent.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Yeah.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

Hang out with Alexander Stubb.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Yeah, yeah. Listen, he's a very, very smart guy and you made the point. It's a bit like my friend Eddie Rama. Sometimes the small and medium sized countries need a leader who is a cliche, punches above his weight. But he, he does, I mean, he's a big thinker, people. I was with Tony Blair yesterday, he was, you know, saying, what does Stub think about this? What does, you know, he's part of people's thinking.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

Huge opportunity for him and for Mark Khan Carney, that if people are saying what is Stubb thinking? If they're saying the Carney doctrine, Stub and Carney's speeches and books are going to be there in every foreign policy article, every foreign affairs article, every conversation, National Security Council. So the question for them, and I'd be interested to see, is what do they do next? Does Carney make another big siege? Does Stubb write another book? How do they operationalize this? Let's say they've got a vision, Britain back into the euro, new form of United Nations. I think he actually does actually now think he should have done a rectangle. I think he now thinks that Europe and the US are not the same thing anymore. Where does he drive? How do we make that happen over the next two years? And how is Stub and Carney part of that story?

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

He's also still young. And the other thing I found really interesting was how much he hated being Prime Minister, how much he enjoyed being Foreign Minister. But Prime Minister, he hated it and he was so relieved to get out of it. And now because it's all foreign policy, he's president and that's his job. And I thought it was interesting in Keir Starmer's speech here where he talks about almost sort of defensively saying why he has to take so much time on foreign policy. It is the driver of so much of the how are we going to meet the challenges that all politicians are thinking about? And I think he's one of those guys. I mean, how does he take it forward? I mean, he's president. Does he end up as the European commission, I don't know. That's his background. That's where he comes from, Europe.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

Just to finish, because I was with the Canadians yesterday, I think it's also partly about ideas, speeches, rhetoric, leadership, vision. It's not just about the details, the implementations. They can provide the, the dream.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

Well, anyway, very lucky to have some time with you.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

Thank you very much. To some, he is the revolutionary hero

[Alexander Stubb]

who restored China to its rightful place

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

on the global stage. To others, he's a brutal despot accused of preserving. Presiding over more civilian deaths than either Stalin or Hitler. Mao Zedong has one of the most

[Alexander Stubb]

recognizable faces in the world.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

Yet he started life in a muddy provincial village. A rebel son who hated his father survived a 6,000 mile walk across China and rose to become a figure of titanic proportions. From Empire, the Goal Hangar World History Show. I'm Anita Anand.

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

And I'm William Duranpool.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

In this six part series, we're joined by world renowned expert Rana Mitter to explore the life of the father of

[Alexander Stubb]

Communist China, Mao Zedong.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

We'll track his rise from a bookstore

[Interviewer (possibly a host of Rest is Politics)]

owner to a guerrilla commander.

[Co-host or secondary interviewer (possibly Rory or another guest)]

And we'll witness his ruthless elimination to secure total power. And we'll descend into the dark experiment of the Cultural Revolution. A time when ancient temples were burnt, children denounced their parents parents and a nation worshipped a mango as a sacred relic. Subscribe to Empire Wherever you get your podcasts to listen now.