The Rest Is Politics: US — Episode 158
Who’s Really Running Trump’s Foreign Policy?
Released: February 16, 2026 | Hosts: Anthony Scaramucci & Katty Kay
Episode Overview
In this episode, Anthony Scaramucci (The Mooch) and Katty Kay dive deep into the dynamics inside the current White House foreign policy apparatus, highlighting the growing influence of unofficial actors and the shifting sands of America’s global strategy. The Munich Security Conference takes center stage, serving both as a pulse-check for US foreign policy under Trump and a staging ground for early 2028 presidential hopefuls—particularly on the Democratic side. The pair also assess the state of the economy, analyze Trump’s dwindling approval ratings, and reflect on voter sentiment amid ongoing uncertainty both at home and abroad.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Munich Security Conference: Symbolism and Substance
- Marco Rubio’s Speech and Tour
- Rubio delivered a speech with a 'warmer' tone compared to previous MAGA surrogates but ultimately maintained Trump’s core message: Europe must do more for its own defense, particularly on values like “civilizational” heritage.
- Rubio avoided direct talk about Russia’s war on Ukraine and subsequently visited Slovakia and Hungary—countries most aligned with Trump within Europe.
- Katty Kay: “He got a standing ovation because he didn’t trash Europeans... but from my point of view, it was not a very different message.” [03:39]
- Reaction Within the Trump Camp
- Scaramucci: “What I heard is Rubio is trying to tell the Europeans, hey, if for some reason I get the nomination and I become the president, I’m really actually an older school person than Donald Trump. I did hear that in the speech, and I think that’s why they applauded. But...you guys are on your own unless you meet our terms. And these are Donald Trump’s terms.” [04:28]
- Trump was reportedly displeased; he expected a harder, more combative tone and resents others (like Rubio) drawing applause on the foreign stage.
- Memorable Quote:
Scaramucci: “Do not, and I repeat, do not get a standing ovation from anybody while you are in the Trump administration unless your name is Donald J. Trump.” [09:20]
2. Power in Foreign Policy: Who’s Really Making the Decisions?
- Rubio’s Influence vs. Trump’s Inner Circle
- Rubio may look like he’s acting as Secretary of State, but real power lies with Jared Kushner and Steve Wyckoff, who are actively negotiating with Iran and Russia without being elected or confirmed officials.
- Kay: “Marco Rubio’s appearance at Munich almost kind of underscored how little power he has...he doesn’t actually make American foreign policy.” [07:34]
- State Department Sidestepped
- Trump-era policy regularly bypasses traditional diplomatic channels, placing more importance on personal loyalty and public performance.
3. 2028 Presidential Hopefuls: Democrats on the World Stage
- Democratic Show of Force in Munich
- Major prospective Democratic candidates—including Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ruben Gallego, Mark Kelly, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gina Raimondo—used the conference for profile-building, signaling US commitment abroad while positioning themselves for 2028.
- Katty Kay: “Forget Iowa caucuses, forget the New Hampshire primaries. It all starts in Munich.” [14:40]
- Newsom’s Approach
- Newsom signaled humility and willingness to learn on foreign policy but, according to Scaramucci, risks looking out of touch with Americans’ domestic anxieties.
- Scaramucci: “I think that it’s the wrong forum for them. It comes across as global elite optics to me.” [16:56]
- Potential Risks
- Democrats’ attendance in Munich could alienate swing-state voters who feel left behind by globalization and crave attention to domestic issues.
- Scaramucci: “If I’m a steelworker in Pittsburgh or an autoworker in Michigan, I really want to know what we’re doing to improve my disposable income...That’s really what I want to know.” [18:56]
4. Viral Vulnerability: AOC’s Stumble
- Ocasio-Cortez’s Taiwan Answer
- Struggled to answer whether the US would defend Taiwan if China invaded, a moment that quickly spread online and was weaponized by MAGA-aligned critics.
- AOC: “We want to make sure that we are moving in all of our economic research and our global positions to avoid any such confrontation and for that question to even arise.” [21:12]
- Scaramucci: “She did damage herself and she’s not ready...if you’re gonna be the president, you have to negotiate with political opponents. And you have to develop some centrist, like coalitional support.” [22:33]
5. Trump’s Approval Crisis
- Cratering Youth Support
- New polling shows a massive 51-point drop in Trump’s approval among voters aged 18–29 since taking office—a swing virtually unprecedented outside sports fandom.
- Katty Kay: “I have never seen in American politics a swing this big in a particular group of people.” [24:28]
- Scaramucci: “Who the hell are these 36% that are actually supporting this nonsense? I want to go out and interview every one of them.” [26:18]
6. Economic Crosscurrents
- Surface Stability, Underlying Stress
- While headline numbers hint at a “soft landing,” Scaramucci warns the true unemployment rate is higher (U6 at ~8% [27:55]), inflation remains sticky, and tariffs are hurting manufacturers—exacerbated by labor shortages due to stricter immigration enforcement.
- Scaramucci: “There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics...if you build in the U6 number, it’s closer to 8%.” [27:55]
- Tariffs & Prices
- Companies like Levi's and McCormick announce looming price hikes, undermining Trump’s claims of returning prosperity.
- Voters’ Economic Perceptions
- Despite tax rebates and stimulus spending, the sense of economic insecurity persists—especially among young and Hispanic voters, aligning with tumbling approval numbers.
- Midterm Risks
- Historical polling suggests the party in power loses on average 32 seats when presidential job approval drops below 50%. With Trump at approximately 40%, the risk of major midterm losses is high.
- Kay: “If you take an average of all the polls out there...they’re in for a hammering according to widers in the midterm elections.” [33:53]
- Corruption & Instability
- Ongoing criminal investigations (including into Jerome Powell) and concerns around corruption and regulatory uncertainty cloud the business climate.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “You can't split the baby at the moment.”
— Katty Kay [12:27] - “Do not, and I repeat, do not get a standing ovation from anybody while you are in the Trump administration unless your name is Donald J. Trump.”
— Anthony Scaramucci [09:20] - “Marco Rubio’s appearance at Munich almost kind of underscored how little power he has.”
— Katty Kay [07:34] - “She did damage herself and she’s not ready... the presidency requires something else.”
— Anthony Scaramucci on AOC [22:33] - “If I’m a steelworker in Pittsburgh...I really want to know what we’re doing to improve my disposable income...That’s really what I want to know.”
— Anthony Scaramucci [18:56] - “Who the hell are these 36% that are actually supporting this nonsense? I want to go out and interview every one of them.”
— Anthony Scaramucci [26:18] - “There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics.”
— Anthony Scaramucci [27:55]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Munich Security/Foreign Policy Analysis: [01:23] – [14:40]
- Democrats at Munich/2028 Preview: [14:40] – [22:33]
- AOC’s Taiwan Moment: [21:12] – [22:33]
- Trump Approval Ratings & Youth Rejection: [24:28] – [26:51]
- Economic State of Play: [27:55] – [35:01]
- Midterms & Party Control Risks: [33:53] – [35:01]
- Corruption and Uncertainty: [35:01] – [37:31]
Tone & Style
The episode is lively and direct, blending Scaramucci’s no-nonsense, insider Wall Street–Meets–White House perspective with Katty Kay’s seasoned, cool-headed journalism. Both hosts employ humor and candor to critique both parties and offer informed speculation. Their repartee adds levity to weighty topics.
Summary
Episode 158 of "The Rest Is Politics: US" incisively unpacks the reality of who’s shaping US foreign policy in the Trump era, the prospects and pitfalls for 2028 Democratic hopefuls, and the undercurrents threatening American economic stability. Rubio’s European trip is seen as ultimately symbolic, with Trump loyalists like Kushner wielding real power, while ambitious Democrats risk optics problems at international gatherings. Polling and economic data foreshadow political turbulence ahead, especially among young and working-class voters. The episode is rich in sharp insight, memorable asides, and actionable intelligence for anyone tracking the crossroads of US policy and politics.