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- [00:01]
Anthony Scaramucci
Lifelock, how can I help?
- [00:02]
Katy Balls
The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.
- [00:05]
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- [00:08]
Katy Balls
What do I do?
- [00:09]
Anthony Scaramucci
My refund though. I'm freaking out. Don't worry, I can fix this.
- [00:12]
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- [00:18]
Katy Balls
I'm so relieved.
- [00:19]
Anthony Scaramucci
No problem. I'll be with you every step of the way.
- [00:21]
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- [00:37]
Katy Balls
Welcome to the Rest is Politics. Us with me, Katie K. In very snowy, chilly Maine. And RoboCop appears to be joining us from the Caribbean.
- [00:50]
Anthony Scaramucci
All right, I'm going to take the glasses off, Katty, but I thought the glasses needed an appearance in the show.
- [00:56]
Katy Balls
I think they deserve their own show.
- [00:58]
Anthony Scaramucci
Actually, I've taken the glasses off. I'm down here in Cayman for the week. Thankfully, while I am outside in this paradise, you may hear some noise and some landscaping going on, which I apologize for, but I can't do the podcast inside because everybody's sleeping. Caddy. And I like my life. I like my domestic life. Caddy. And I want to keep it that way. In the meantime, Caddy, what are we talking about? Go ahead.
- [01:23]
Katy Balls
I don't know. It seems a little bit like making you work too hard to be talking about the Munich Security Conference all the way from the Cayman Islands. I feel a little bad we should be letting you enjoy the palm trees, but there we go. We are going to talk about what's been happening at the Munich Security conference over the weekend. Secretary of State Marco Rubio offering a slightly warmer flavored message, but basically the same message to the Europeans. Not much change I don't see in MAGA foreign policy. And also the fact that for some reason Munich seems to have become the new Manchester, New Hampshire, and all of the Democratic hopefuls are actually out there having the first primary race of the 2028 presidential season. So we'll talk about that. The audition for the next election was taking place this weekend in Germany, not in the United States. And in the second half, we're going to look at the economy headlines suggesting kind of mixed inflation easing, jobs holding up, but some businesses saying they're about to hike prices with all those tariffs. And something that you've been hearing, Anthony, which I was very interesting, which is the decline, not just to the kind of global political order, security order, which is what we've heard about in Munich and you and I heard about in Davos, but also the global economic order. And then there's a lot more this week, by the way, It's a busy week. So in our question and answer for our founding members, if you'd like to tune into that, we're also going to get into the latest on the Epstein files because there's now obviously a huge number of documents have been released. The DOJ says that's it, they've released everything. But Democrats and people looking at those documents aren't happy and aren't convinced because of all the redactions. And then a big question, which I know you're going to have views on for our founding members, are aliens real? Somebody unexpected is weighing in on that. So let's start with Marco Rubio's speech to the Munich Security Conference. And then I think just as important, the fact that Marco Rubio went from Munich to the two countries in Europe that are most MAGA aligned. He went to Slovakia and saw the prime minister there today. He's in Hungary seeing Victor Orban, obviously very MAGA aligned. It didn't escape anyone's notice at the Munich Security Conference that Marco Rubio gave a speech to all of these attendees which was really about sort of protecting civilizational aspects of white European culture, not so much protecting democracy and liberal democracy. And that he got a standing ovation because he didn't trash Europeans. He wasn't rude to European leaders like Donald Trump had been in Davos or JD Vance had been in Munich last year. But from my point of view, it was not a very different message. And the message to the Europeans is you've got to spend a lot more on your own defense. We'll be here to protect civilizational things that we agree with, but we're not going to be protecting all of that woke stuff that you might have liked in the past, including green energy. By the way, I'm not actually going to say anything about Ukraine and Russia. And then I'm going to go and fly off and see the two leaders who are most aligned with Donald Trump in Europe. What did you make of it? Was this a big departure? Should Europeans heave a big sigh of relief?
- [04:28]
Anthony Scaramucci
No, they shouldn't do that. And obviously he's going to Hungary as opposed to Germany, which is sort of odd because Hungary is an ally, but it's not really the European allies that we've traditionally would say are our top allies, let's put it that way. But what I heard is Rubio is trying to tell the Europeans, hey, if for Some reason I get the nomination and I become the president. I'm really actually an older school person than Donald Trump. I did hear that in the speech, and I think that's why they applauded. But what I also heard is that you guys are on your own unless you meet our terms. And these are Donald Trump's terms. This is not like, I just want to explain to people, the State Department would dictate the terms of our protocol and our diplomacy. And in general caddy, over the last 80 years, the administrations adhered to that protocol. And so Donald Trump obviously is ripping that up. You know, I heard also, as a Wall street person, buy European defense manufacturing stocks. Because let me tell you something, Europe is going to have a reduced reliance on the United States. And Europe is looking at the United States and saying, wow, there is political instability in the United States. And so that's what I heard. And listen, what I don't like about Rubio is the weather vane, okay? And trust me, Trump did not like that speech.
- [06:08]
Katy Balls
Yeah, he's trying to have it every way, right? He's trying to appeal to the Europeans. I mean, Rubio actually comes out of the stock of American foreign policy, which is work with our allies. There's a post Second World War order. America should be a leader in that order. It's based around democracy. Rubio is the one who, when the Russians invaded Ukraine, actually stood up on the Senate floor and lambasted President Putin and Russian aggression and said, we can never trust them. And now here he is, not even mentioning Russia and Ukraine in his speech. But I think the other thing that was stark about this, because this, although we're talking about Munich, we're really actually talking about the 2028 race. Let's be honest here. There is Marco Rubio not actually making American foreign policy. So, yes, he flies off to Slovakia and Hungary. If you're going to be charitable to Marco Rubio, there's a valid reason to do that, because those two countries are buying a lot of Russian oil. And maybe he's going there telling them, look, guys, that's enough. We're going to bang your heads together. You actually can't carry on defying our wishes and carry on buying Russian oil because that's propping up the Russian war machine. Maybe that's what he's doing in Slovakia and Hungary, but he doesn't actually make American foreign policy. Who's actually getting the White House's attention? Who's Donald Trump actually interested in this week? To the extent that he's interested in These issues he's interested in. Jared Kushner and Steve Wyckoff, who are the ones that are flying to Geneva right now, who are going to negotiate with the Iranians and then are going to carry on with Russia, Ukraine negotiations. Neither of them actually Senate confirmed. Neither of them elected officials. Neither of them, as far as we know. Maybe, Jared, I'm wrong. Maybe they are thinking of running for president. But I thought Marco Rubio's appearance at Munich almost kind of underscored how little power he has. I mean, you talk about making foreign policy from the State Department. That just isn't what's happening now, right, in this administration. And so Marco Rubio is not the one making the power.
- [08:04]
Anthony Scaramucci
Listen, I agree with you, but I want to just explain to people why Trump did not like this speech. Trump didn't like the speech because it wasn't J.D. vance's speech. Trump didn't like this speech because it wasn't Pam Bondi's excoriation of the senators last week. You know, Trump wanted Rubio to go there and say, hey, listen, you beta males and you beta females, we're the big dog in town.
- [08:29]
Katy Balls
Washed up old Europeans.
- [08:31]
Anthony Scaramucci
And by the way, you're letting your culture go. You know, I'm a white supremacist, and you're letting your culture go by having immigration. And this is nonsensical and a result of which we're gonna punish you. And, oh, by the way, if you haven't noticed, our supply of materiel to Ukraine has dropped to basically zero. So you're going to have to fix the Ukraine thing from your end while I'm doing an economic deal with Vladimir Putin. That's what Trump wanted to have happen. And then Trump wanted a couple of biting remarks against all the other European leaders, and then he would have said what he said about Pam Bondi's testimony to the Senate. That was fantastic. Fantastic.
- [09:17]
Katy Balls
So if you're not rude, it doesn't wash. Basically, yeah.
- [09:20]
Anthony Scaramucci
I'm gonna take people into the inner sanctum of Trump because I spoke to two guys that talked to him after Rubio's speech that sounded like Bush Republicanism, that sounded like establishment Republicanism. And so he didn't like it. Okay? And last but not least, with Rubio, it shifted the spotlight away from Trump to Marco Rubio. Let me tell you something about Donald Trump. Do not, and I repeat, do not get a standing ovation from anybody while you are in the Trump administration unless your name is Donald J. Trump. So everybody understand that. Can't have anybody in There that has. Why are you laughing? Why are you laughing?
- [10:00]
Katy Balls
Well, you know, it makes me think we've just been doing this series that we're doing for our founding member about the early years of Donald Trump, and it's exactly the same. There he is trying to organize the ice rink to be rebuilt in Central Park. And what do the contractors say and the mayor say? There's only room for one person on the podium when it comes to taking the applause of the crowd, and that's Donald Trump hasn't changed. It was ever thus.
- [10:27]
Anthony Scaramucci
So there you go. So, Katie, what are you hearing from the administration, people who, in the kind
- [10:32]
Katy Balls
of more traditional Republican world who are hoping for a Republican nominee? I haven't spoken to anyone in the administration. Glad you managed to get hold of a couple of people that were close to Trump on this because that's interesting. That he didn't like it doesn't totally surprise me. It's too soft. But for people who are in the kind of traditional Republican world, they are hoping that Marco Rubio's performance, they told me in Munich, gave them a sense that, yes, there is an alternative to JD Vance, there is somebody who still believes in amor, as Munich was set up to do, celebrate John McCain. And there's still a John McCain dinner, that there's a kind of still a John McCain type wing for the Republican Party. I think what it highlighted for me, and we're going to talk about the Democrats in a minute because it was also super interesting watching all of them there. What it highlighted for me is this incredibly narrow path that Marco Rubio has to the nomination. I don't know that we are living in a political world that allows candidates to try to be multiple things to multiple audiences. We are living in this political world that rewards this kind of slightly weird concept of all authenticity and sticking to your guns and a social media world that rewards that. And if Marco Rubio thinks he can do what he did in Munich but still keep MAGA on board, which is what I think he was trying to do with all of these references to civilizational. He talked about this word civilizational. He used as much as he used the word democracy. And let's be honest, what he means is white Europeans and white Americans in that context, that you need to keep your countries and that your countries kind of homogeneous. Is that enough, do you think, to keep Marco Rubio popular with the MAGA crowd and try and peel away enough people in the center of American politics who don't like the Pam Bondi, JD Vance, Donald Trump tone of politics.
- [12:27]
Anthony Scaramucci
So I don't think so.
- [12:28]
Katy Balls
No, I don't think so either. I think it's not possible. You can't split the baby at the moment.
- [12:33]
Anthony Scaramucci
You can't split the baby. But the other thing that's gonna happen to Rubio now is he's gonna become less and less relevant. So you mentioned Wyckoff and Jared Kushner, and I think they are basically the de facto secretaries of state. And Rubio is out there, you know, on a little bit of a diplomatic tour. Just want to contrast it briefly and get your reaction to this because I listened to Newsom's entire speech and I was fascinated by that because there was levels of traditionalism in that and there was levels of expressing the importance of the coalition. And there's nuance to Newsom's speech in the sense that he has that Kissinger esque, George Kennan esque diplomatic idea about America being stronger through the coalitions. But I think what I didn't hear, what I'm worried about for Newsom is underestimating the domestic appetite that Americans have for global leadership. Okay. I don't, it could be overly idealistic. So I'm not one of Gavin's advisors, but if I was, I would say, Gavin, the country's changed. People feel very stressed. They've been told by Fox News and Donald Trump that we've overextended our commitments internationally and they want us to spend more time spending money here at home. They're connected. Katty, by the way, okay, the reason why the country's still got 26% of the global GDP is that our outside foreign policy strategy over 80 years and our inside domestic policy has generally been good. I mean, we've missed the mark on deficit spending, but we've generally had the right ideas. And so I just think that there's got to be more nuance to what Newsom's saying because if he really wants to win the nomination and win the election, he's got to get some moderate Republicans in addition to the independents to vote for him because his stuff is going to be very close. But that was my reaction to Newsom. In contrast, in comparison to Rubio, I
- [14:41]
Katy Balls
mean, let's talk about the Democrats, cuz it was a striking scene to see Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Governor Gaza Newsom of California, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Senator Ruben Gallego and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, Governor Gretchen Whitman and Gina Raimondo, all Democratic hopefuls, making time in their very busy schedules to attend the Munich security conference to show Themselves on the world stage. I mean, partly they were going there, as you and I found in Davos. We met Democrats who were going there in order to say, look, America hasn't abandoned you. There is another way. Gavin Newsom said it directly. Donald Trump will be gone. Don't think this is permanent. He's becoming a lame duck. He's got three more years, and then things return to kind of normal. So you had the Democrats there giving that message, kind of promoting the traditional American alliance message, but also, let's be honest there, in order to show that they had foreign policy credentials and national security credentials and show themselves on the world stage, because those clips will then be part of their own campaign platforms when they run in 2028. So forget Iowa caucuses, forget the New Hampshire primaries. It all starts in Munich. Apparently, it happens three years before the actual election, but that's why they were there on Gavin Newsom's message. I actually thought the most interesting thing Gavin Newsom said was not when he was speaking at the speech, it was in a. He gave lots of little interviews to people. He was very happy to get his name out there. He wanted to be covered an awful lot. He was sort of dominating the spotlight there. But one of the things that I thought was interesting that he said, he acknowledged that he was in Munich to learn. He said, I'm not trying to give foreign policy advice. I need it. That, to me, showed a politician with political skills. Because going to Munich with all of these foreign policy experts and say, actually, I'm still learning and you guys can teach me things. I thought for a politician who's sometimes dismissed as being a little too perfect, perfect height, perfect hair, perfectly kind of presented, I mean, I'm sure it was studied vulnerabilities, studied openness, but I thought it was pretty effective.
- [16:49]
Anthony Scaramucci
So I'm gonna push back and give you a different point of view and tell me what you think of it. I think that it's the wrong forum for them.
- [16:56]
Katy Balls
They shouldn't be there at all.
- [16:58]
Anthony Scaramucci
They shouldn't be there. It comes across as global elite optics to me. It also comes across as like, you're freelancing foreign policy a little bit. You know, that America is overseas and we can't speak with one voice. Now, I recognize that Trump's voice is not their voice, and I recognize that with Trump having a 58 or 61% disapproval rating, it may not even be the voice of America on foreign policy. But I think playing domestic politics on foreign soil in an environment like this in the United States, is a bad move. Just me personally.
- [17:37]
Katy Balls
You don't think that's a kind of old school type of thing, that you don't talk about foreign policy on foreign soil and you stick with the president? I just feel like that's gone out the window. These guys are there to get attention.
- [17:49]
Anthony Scaramucci
I don't really necessarily have a problem with that. I have a problem with the optics of it as how it's gonna be viewed in places like Ohio, Arizona, Michigan. It reinforces this perception that we're torn related to our foreign allies and nobody's addressing the domestic anxiety. They would have been better off having a Michigan domestic conference to juxtaposition the Munich security conference. They would have been better off having an Ohio domestic conference where they all got together.
- [18:25]
Katy Balls
The risk for them is they wouldn't have got much attention. That's why they do it, right? They go because the press is there. They can get attention there. They can break through. All of these people are trying to break through at the moment.
- [18:37]
Anthony Scaramucci
Okay. But it looks performative, Caddy. That's the. Listen, I'm with you. I'm with you. But like, it could be for the average voter in America, it could be the wrong type of attention.
- [18:48]
Katy Balls
Right. What are you doing abroad? Yeah, I get that.
- [18:52]
Anthony Scaramucci
It could be for the media elite. Good attention. It could be for.
- [18:55]
Katy Balls
Yes, I get that.
- [18:57]
Anthony Scaramucci
They're experts. Good attention. But if I'm a steelworker in Pittsburgh or an autoworker in Michigan, I really want to know what we're doing to improve my disposable income and to make my sons and daughters lives better than my life. That's really what I want to know. And even if they didn't get the attention, the notion that they did it and they stayed on it, See, one thing they could learn from Trump is repetition. Right. You know, we learned in elementary school, repetition is the mother of memory. But they could be pounding the domestic agenda and they could be having these quote, unquote, Michigan domestic conference, Ohio domestic conference, and promoting this and doing town halls with CNN and others. I think it would scare the daylights out of the Republicans because the Republicans have not delivered on a domestic agenda caddy. I mean, we're going to talk about the economy, I guess, later in the show. And even though the stock market is up, like I said to you six months ago, the policies that Trump is putting in place is actually hurting the people that more or less voted for him. And that's the irony of it. So to me, if they focus on those people, I think they can win back many of them.
- [20:12]
Katy Balls
I think that's true. I think it's also true that you can't run for president of the United States with zero profile on national security and international affairs.
- [20:24]
Anthony Scaramucci
Bill Clinton did it, as you remember, Bill Clinton did it. But you may be right. But I think in today 26. Yes, I think I agree with you.
- [20:32]
Katy Balls
And one person who didn't do herself any favors was Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, who actually went with quite an interesting. You may agree with her or you may not, but went with a kind of theory of the case of global affairs based on income inequality, but had such a weak performance when she was asked that key question about whether she would send American troops to protect Taiwan. And I listened to the whole thing and I think the answer is so excruciating that you should take a listen. Would and should the US Actually commit US Troops to defend Taiwan if China were to move?
- [21:12]
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
You know, I think that this is such a, you know, I think that this is a, this is, of course, a, a very long standing policy of the United States. And I think what we are hoping for is that we want to make sure that we never get to that point. And we want to make sure that we are moving in all of our economic research and our global positions to avoid any such confrontation and for that question to even arise.
- [21:52]
Katy Balls
The risk for somebody like Alexandria Ocasio Cortez or any of these Democratic hopefuls is that you turn up on the global stage and you don't do yourself any favors because that clip will be as it is being at the moment. It's kind of going viral online, particularly being promoted by MAGA types who love the fact that she messed up, but it was a mess up. It showed her not particularly adept at that kind of field. Now, okay, you could argue that Donald Trump has compared Ukraine and Russia to two kids fighting in a playground or has told Iranian protesters that America would be with them when they weren't necessarily. And so he's met messed up a lot as well and said things that are contradictory and incomplete. I think you have to have some foreign policy credentials and I guess that's why they were going there.
- [22:33]
Anthony Scaramucci
So, Katty, I hear you on aoc. She did damage herself and she's not ready. I'm not one of her advisors either. But I would say to her, hey, listen, you're great on messaging, you're great on social media, you're great on movement mobilization, but if you're gonna be the president, you have to negotiate with political opponents. And you have to develop some centrist, like coalitional support. You're not gonna get there on the hard left lane solo. You may get there in New York on the hard left lane, but to your points that you've made earlier on these shows about Mickey Sherrill or the woman that won in Abigail Spamberger. Abigail Spamberger, you gotta have more of that. You've gotta manage the intra party factions. And she's not doing that. And so for those reasons, I don't think she's ready. Despite her charm, her charisma, she's a formidable and very successful politician. But I think the presidency requires something else. And again, hate Donald Trump, but he built quite a Republican coalition in the two times that he won the presidency.
- [23:40]
Katy Balls
I think the key there is she's not ready. And I think even despite her policies on income inequality around national security, that clip showed she's not ready. If you can't have a good answer to a fairly obvious question about Taiwan, then you probably shouldn't be have your finger on the nuclear button and be America's commander in chief, at least not yet. And I think that's why it was useful for me. I found that that's why it's useful having them go there. By the way, the Democrat who's getting the most attention as all of these aspirational types that are rushing off to Munich, it turns out all you really have to do is, is go courtside at an NBA All Stars game and catch a ball efficiently. Because if you can do that, you get a standing applause. And if your name is Barack Obama, you're still the Democrat that actually all Democrats really love.
- [24:29]
Anthony Scaramucci
The aliens are real. Barack Obama.
- [24:32]
Katy Balls
We're gonna talk about that with our founding members, the aliens.
- [24:34]
Anthony Scaramucci
Oh.
- [24:35]
Katy Balls
Or maybe they're not for real. Actually real. He had a good weekend. Barack Obama is still the one that they all look to. Which must hurt if you're Gavin Newsom or AOC or any of the other other types who were there. I think that must be pretty tricky for them. But they would have liked the poll numbers quickly before we go to break. I do think it's worth bringing that up. The latest Economist YouGov poll shows a swing that I don't think, Anthony, I have ever seen in American politics. A swing this big in a particular group of people. The poll that was released just a couple of days ago shows that Trump's approval rating among young voters, people ages 18 to 29. Not us, sadly. But anyway, young voters has cratered since he took office last year, it's dropped by 51 points. Have you ever seen a swing that big in a group of people in the space of one year? From approval to disapproval of somebody? That's pretty dramatic.
- [25:35]
Anthony Scaramucci
Just, just a sports team, you know, Like, I think the disapproval rating on the New York Jets, I think, has swung like that over the years, and perhaps they're British football teams that have had the same thing. But I think that's something to really look at, Caddy, because me, too, Trump is super frustrated by this. So much so that Gallup, who has a lot of government contracts, has now said, no more on approval rating polling. We're not gonna do it anymore because they don't wanna upset King Trump. But, you know, if you go to Pew Research and these others, if you're sitting at the 36, 37%, I mean, my reaction. This is terrible for me to say, but I'll say it. So who the hell are these 36% that are actually supporting this nonsense? I want to go out and interview every one of them. But I still think, given the damage he's done internationally, the damage he's done to the economy, I still think that the 36% number is surprising if the stock market rolls over and you have this underlying surface cracks in the economy that we're going to discuss, plus a poor stock market, which may not happen because the Fed will likely cut rates into this environment. But listen, he could end up with a 25% approval rating before this thing is over.
- [26:52]
Katy Balls
Okay, we're going to take a break and come back and dig more into those economic numbers.
- [26:57]
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- [27:32]
Katy Balls
Anthony, I know you've signed up as a founding member to the podcast, but do you also follow us on your app? If you guys never want to miss an episode, especially with all the craziness in American politics right now, just hit follow on your podcast app. On Spotify, it's follow on Apple, it's that little plus at the top just to make life easy. All right, back to the episode.
- [27:56]
Anthony Scaramucci
Welcome back to the Rest Is Politics. Us with me, Anthony Scaramucci, Caddy we're going to talk about the economy. So we've been talking about it over the last six months. The core headline, Caddy, is that there's a soft landing. But if you really look at the data, there's not a lot to celebrate. Inflation is still north of 2%. The unemployment rate, while it's ticked down to 4.3%, there's something called the U6 unemployment rate. And I just want people to understand this in America, because there are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics. Caddy. And so what ends up happening is we lower that number because if you've looked for a job for a year and you have not found a job, then you fall off of the unemployment role. But if you build in the U6 number, it's closer to 8%, which means that there's a lot of people that are out of the labor participation market now, which is a depressing thing for the United States. So the reality, Caddy, is things are a little bit worse than the superficial numbers are showing. And a lot of this has to do with Trump's tariffs. It has to do with the tension overseas. It has to do with the complaints by American manufacturers Caddy that need products from overseas that they're paying for. And again, I'll use the example of Boeing. If they're going to make an aircraft here in the United States, 60% of the parts are coming from overseas and they're now incurring those taxes, if you will. So what do you make of the economy and what are you hearing inside the Beltway?
- [29:40]
Katy Balls
I hear from people in MAGA world that there's quite a lot of frustration that they feel. They have done all of these things that ought to be juicing the economy, particularly around the big beautiful bill. They send a lot of money out into the country. They're hoping that the tax rebates that Americans are about to receive in the post, which should be something like $3,600 higher than the average tax rebate, which is usually around $3,000, that people will feel richer and they'll start spending. I mean, what you hear from people in the president's circle is it's going to get better, it's going to get better, it's going to get better. We have primed the economy for a midterm rally, effectively that we know it was bad last year but very soon, Americans will start feeling that it's better because these tax cuts and the tax rebates will filter through and people will have more money in their pockets. But then you hear from companies, from the private sector exactly what you're just saying, which is that a lot of companies said they're actually about to start raising prices. They swallowed a lot of the tariff cuts, as we've said before. But you've now got companies like Levi's, McCormick and company who are saying that actually we're going to be raising prices on things like jeans and, and household goods and industrial products a lot more than we normally would at this stage in the year. And so prices could actually be of general household. Things could actually be about to go up further. When you look at those polls that we mentioned earlier, Anthony, the big drop off has been around the two issues of immigration, obviously, and the activities of ICE around the country, but also around the economy and prices. So I don't know if the president, can the president, you tell me this, you've spoken about this. Can they do something to turn around this perception that the thing he ran on successfully he hasn't actually managed to deliver on?
- [31:30]
Anthony Scaramucci
I think it's going to be tough. I think you have the affordability issue, which is really weighing on the average person. I think the other big issue which we have to address is the labor market. So he's thrown the people out of the country. And so it's had a chilling effect on gdp. If you actually just look at the labor numbers, we need more workers. We had the workers in the country. He's throwing them out of the country. The global pressures on tariff and trade are injecting a tremendous amount of uncertainty into the market and the supply chain. And so listen, he's growing modestly. But Katie, you probably saw the poll over the weekend. Would you rather have Joe Biden back as president? 60% of the people said yes. And so if you look at the numbers, and this happens to presidents, by the way, when Biden was in office, he had a 40, 45% approval rating.
- [32:23]
Katy Balls
We live in an era of low approval ratings for leaders everywhere, not just in America, but in the west as well.
- [32:30]
Anthony Scaramucci
Exactly. So I'm not really suggesting they're just telling people how unenthusiastic people are about political leadership, particularly here in the country. But remember, Biden pushed the CHIPS act, he pushed the infrastructure bill, he pushed clean energy incentives. Trump is dumping money into people's hands. Yes, the tax refunds will be better, but he hasn't done anything structurally. Like he can't get to the podium and say, okay, listen, I've made a five year investment. We've used some of the government's money to rebuild manufacturing centers or we invested in jobs training or retooling people that are delivering pizzas or working for doordash. We're going to teach them how to use AI and get white collar jobs. He hasn't done any of that. And so the economy is vulnerable and it's going to be offset by rate cuts. I'm not saying that the stock market's going to implode or anything like that, but we're talking about the average person. You know, you've mentioned a K shape economy where a group of people are doing very well caddy and then another group of people are doing. And so the question is, is the group of people that are doing poorly gonna turn up at the polls and vote the Republicans out? Because remember, they own this. They've got the House, the Senate and the presidency. And so it'll be interesting to see
- [33:53]
Katy Balls
what happens Whit ez, who's the Republican pollster who you know? Well, Anthony made a really good point over the weekend, which is that when a president's job approval rating is being below 50%, the average loss of seats in that midterm election is 32. So President Trump's job approval rating sits at around 40% if you take an average of all the polls out there, which suggests they're in for a hammering according to widers in the midterm elections. And the thing they have to do is they have to. It's exactly what you're talking about, is that K shaped economy because who are the people they're losing vote support amongst young people who are struggling the most economically and Hispanic voters who are not traditionally in the top 1% of American voters. So also the people that are struggling in the economy. Before we go, one of the things that you thought he might try to do is by getting Kevin Washing to cut interest rates that that would help juice the American economy and the American stock market heading into the midterms. And is that going to happen and will it have the effect that he wants it to have?
- [35:01]
Anthony Scaramucci
I think so. You know, our economic team is expecting now four rate cuts by the end of the year. Of course we've got to get rid of the criminal investigation against Jerome Powell. I really do believe Thom Tillis that that nomination is not going to go forward in the committee. He's going to vote against it. So remember how this works. It's got to go to the Senate Banking Committee. It's got to be approved by the committee and then put down on the floor for a vote untillist says, hey, I'm not doing that until you get rid of this criminal investigation. So, you know, we'll have to see what happens there. But my guess is, is that criminal investigation will slink away. You know, it's preposterous that there's actually a criminal investigation against Jerome Powell. It just speaks to how bad everything is. You know, we, I know we have to go, but the corruption index in the United States has gone up. And I want people to think about that. We're not enforcing the bribery acts. We're not enforcing the emoluments clause against the President. And you know, there's a, there's a stink going on in the economy, which is also going to affect the economy caddy. So. So if you bring ICE agents into blue states, you're going to scare people. It's going to slow down economic innovation. If you're going to grift people, people are not going to trust the system as much as they once did. It's all connected. So will rates go lower if war gets into the job? And I predict he will get into the job, yes. Will that act as a buffer for the stock market? Yes. But the President and his team is going to have to pull back on these tariffs. And you know this, and I know this. The reason why that Supreme Court court decision on the tariffs has been delayed is Roberts does not want this to be a 54 decision. Okay, he's not going to get it to be 9 0, but he's looking for 7 2. And he's lobbying those justices to make that happen. That's coming down the pike. So there's a lot of economic uncertainty. If you're an executive and a capital allocator, you're sitting there saying, geez, I don't know if the tariffs are going to stay in place. I don't know what's going on with ice. I'm worried about the bribery and corruption that's going on in my own industry. Should I also be a briber and a corrupt person to make more business for myself? I mean, he set up a true disaster for the American economy, and it's starting to hurt him. And you can see it in his
- [37:31]
Katy Balls
approval ratings, and you can see it in the value of the dollar as well. I mean, it's hard to know exactly which of those plays what role. But it certainly all certainly playing some sort of role. That is all we have time for today. Clearly another busy week shaping up here in the United States. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. If you would like to become a founding member, please do so. We'll be taking your questions. We'll be looking at Epstein this week and you can send us your questions and we'll answer them every week as well. And get our special series on Donald J. Trump, which is coming up soon. Thanks for listening, guys.
- [38:08]
Anthony Scaramucci
Thanks, guys. We'll see you soon.
- [38:15]
Anita Anand
To some, he is the revolutionary hero who restored China to its rightful place on the global stage.
- [38:21]
William Duranpool
To others, he's a brutal despot accused of presiding over more civilian deaths than either Stalin or Hitler.
- [38:28]
Anita Anand
Mao Zedong has one of the most recognizable faces places in the world. Yet he started life in a muddy provincial village.
- [38:35]
William Duranpool
A rebel son who hated his father survived a 6,000mile walk across China and rose to become a figure of titanic proportions.
- [38:43]
Anita Anand
From Empire, the Goal Hanger World History Show. I'm Anita Anand.
- [38:48]
William Duranpool
And I'm William Duranpool.
- [38:50]
Anita Anand
In this six part series, we're joined by world renowned expert Rana Mitta to explore the life of of the father of communist China, Mao Zedong.
- [38:59]
William Duranpool
We'll track his rise from a bookstore owner to a guerrilla commander. And we'll witness his ruthless elimination to secure total power. And we'll descend into the dark experiment of the Cultural Revolution. A time when ancient temples were burnt, children denounced their parents and a nation worshipped a mango as a sacred relic.
- [39:21]
Anita Anand
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