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Podcast Advertiser
Foreign.
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Katty Kay
Welcome to the Rest is Politics US and another emergency live stream that we're doing. I think it's the second this week, Anthony, obviously because of the attacks launched by Israel and the United States against Iran. Multiple attacks that have been going on for several hours now that were launched in early morning Iran time and retaliation that we're seeing from the Iranians across the region. So far, indications the reports coming in there have been no American casualties. There are various reports of casualties coming in from Iran, including one report of a school being struck in the country. But we're in a phase, Anthony, where things are moving very fast. The President has made a statement saying that this could last several days. He's warning Americans that there could be American casualties. He says this is what happens when you go to war. And he is also, I think one of the most important things about the statement that he put out on social media was saying to the people of Iran that this could be their best chance to overthrow their government. So a lot happening. That's why we thought we would come and join you all with our take on it. Thank you for joining us, all of you from all over the place, from Australia, from Britain, from the U.S. it's great to have you with us and we'll try and make sense of this, what's behind it, what the options are. I've had a few texts, Anthony, come in from Republicans, from Democrats, from members of Congress, from senators, from people in the MAGA world with their takes on this. What did you think when you woke up? I know you arrived late back in the States, from the, from the uk. So what did you think when you woke up this morning?
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Anthony Zurcher
Well, I mean, first off, if you. And I was in the UK Thursday and early part of Friday and people said to me, is he going to strike Iran? And my answer was he's likely going to strike Iran because he's not knowing Trump's personality. He's not going to put that level of assets in the region and then pull back. It's just not his personality. He's too impetuous, he's too impulsive. The other thing going on is the Epstein files. And so people could pretend that that's not going on, but it is going on. And you know, there's a tweet for everything Trump said in 2013 in order to distract from X, Y, Z, Obama is going to strike Iran or Obama's going to attack this place or attack that place. Obama has, Obama has poor negotiating skills, so he's not going to be able to Negotiate with Iran. You see what I mean?
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Katty Kay
So there is a tweet for everything and I think it is. We just put that up on the screen if we can, because it was in 2012. November 2013. 11, 11, 2013. Donald Trump tweeted this. Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly. Not skilled, exclamation mark. I don't quite know what that, how that reflects on the negotiations that the Trump administration has been carrying out as early as this week. Right, Anthony? I mean, we had the Omani foreign minister who find the Omanis and this was planned while he was meeting Vice President J.D. vance in Washington. And then he finds out that actually all along they were planning to do this. I'm not thinking he's particularly happy with this right now, but I think the timing is interesting. I know there's a lot going on in terms of his poll numbers and in terms of Epstein. And you think that's what's behind this? I know Alistair Rory were questioning the timing as well. It's kind of the military timing. He's got the assets in place. But what's the political timing?
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Anthony Zurcher
You know, the obvious is the obvious, of course, three, three things. He's getting pressure from Netanyahu. They're both looking at each other and saying we need to survive politically. How do we stay in office? Bill Clinton said this about Netanyahu. We stay in office by keeping up the fight. Trump looks at this and says this is a major distraction. How do we stay in office? We, we stay in office by putting up the fight. And so, I mean, you gotta just be honest with people about that. But a couple of things I want to address because people are asking the questions is this a legal or an illegal war? And so what's the answer to that? KATTY K. Well, look, I've got, I
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Katty Kay
had a member of Congress text me this morning just. And I'm going to look at this right now because I was asking whether Congress has to get involved because the President has an enormous amount of legal latitude. We saw this with Venezuela to go in and take out Maduro. He had the legal latitude, whatever. People wanted to stay to join Israel in the strikes last summer. Remember it's less than a year since he struck Iran before and at the time he said he had obliterated their nuclear capacity. I guess they no longer believe that's the case. But there should be a briefing of Congress at least. There's this thing called the Gang of Eight, which are the eight, the foremost senior Republicans, the foremost senior Democrats in the House and in the Senate. And in normal times, the White House would brief the Gang of Eight, but according to my source in Congress who's just texted me, they have no awareness that the Gang of Eight was briefed yet. Or, or perhaps it was selective members, Republican members of the Gang of Eight. Yeah.
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Anthony Zurcher
Schumer. Schumer. Not to interrupt, but Schumer was briefed. And Schumer did make a statement yesterday that he said that we're in a perilous situation. And so Schumer was tipping people off that we were going to war. And he said that yesterday. But he had to question, is it a legal war or an illegal war? Catty, go ahead, go.
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Katty Kay
Well, I think in domestic terms at the moment, these strikes are legal. If he has to go to Congress and ask for money for it, I mean, Congress, the Democrats in Congress will say there needs to be a War Resolutions act in order to allow for this. But the President has, as we saw in Iran and we saw in Venezuela, he actually has quite a lot of power before he has to ask for the budgetary authority. And if he's not sending troops in on the ground, I think that gives him further authority. Right. So in international terms, this. He would have to say there was an imminent danger. Clearly there wasn't an imminent danger. I mean, America is in less danger today than it was when it struck Iran last summer because it had incapacitated quite a large chunk of the Iranian nuclear capability. And even then there was a big debate about whether America was in imminent danger. So if it was not in imminent danger, and this is a war of choice, that makes it more circumspect internationally, certainly domestically. I'm not sure that he doesn't have the right to do this, does he, Anthony? I think he does have the right to do this.
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Anthony Zurcher
I mean, this is why you are so good at your job and all the different jobs that you have. This is an illegal war, caddy Kim.
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Katty Kay
But not, but not domestically, is it. He's allowed to do this without. He doesn't have to go to Congress if he's just striking.
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Anthony Zurcher
This is a direct violation of the international law that the United States set up. Okay? And you're right that the Congress, because they're a bunch of babies and willy nilly, they ceded their war powers and their emergency powers to the American President. So domestic, domestically, I understand the COVID there domestically, but this is an illegal war. And so let me explain this to people. This is a very, very Important. Trump is not only wrecking the international order, he's resetting the table to turn everybody against America, not just our adversaries, but also our allies. And just hear me out for one second. He's doing this because right makes might
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Katty Kay
and might, as Stephen Miller said.
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Anthony Zurcher
And we're gonna flex on everybody. And this is what the Romans did. Kaboom. This is what other empires did. Kaboom. What made the Americans so unique is we built up the most powerful economy, the most powerful military, and then we put a set of rules, rules in place to try our best to protect the free world and to try our best to protect everybody. Did we make mistakes? Yes. Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam. I'm not saying we didn't make mistakes, but the general concept was that the US Was not going to assert itself in the way that it's now asserting itself. So again, I'm in a very tough spot because I'm a patriotic American, I love my country, I love our servicemen. And this is what Trump does. This is the duality of Trump. You're going to war against Iran. If you denounce it, you're coming across as unpatriotic. But I'm not trying to do that. I'm trying to analyze this for people from a historical perspective. He is hurting us in a way that is indescribable. Caddy.
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Katty Kay
Okay, so to you, by the way, even though the.
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Anthony Zurcher
And talk about why the Australians and the Canadians.
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Katty Kay
So that's the. I think this is the interesting question is that I hear what you're saying about international law. Exactly the same issue was raised around Venezuela. Exactly the same issue was raised around the Iranian strikes last summer. Trump doesn't care about international law. I think Mark Carney, when he spoke at Davos and said, we've always understood that this idea of a rules based order was a bit of a misnomer because there's one rule for the strong nations and there's one rule for the weak nations. And you know what? The strong nations don't really suffer when they disobey or go go contrary to the international rules based order. And when they break international law. And I thought it was very interesting this morning that in the last hour or so you've had the Canadians and the Australians come out in support of this. Here's Mark Carney's statement. Canada supports the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international peace and security. Now, you could say, of course, Canada supports country in the world, in the west is going to support that. No country wants Iran at this point to get a nuclear weapon, apart from perhaps Iran's allies, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, China. They may want Iran to have a nuclear weapon, but most Western allies don't. But it's noticeable that what what's interesting is what Mark Carney did not say. Mark Carney did not come out and say this was a violation of international law. America should not have done this. We oppose the action in Iran. They're just saying they're monitoring it closely. And he's advising, you know, Canadians to be careful in the region.
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Anthony Zurcher
I think what both the Canadians and the Americans are doing, which I think is very interesting about this whole situation, excuse me, the Canadians, the Australians, is they don't want to go against Trump in a situation of war. They're willing to fight them on trade. They're willing to break away from him and try to create more trade alliances. But I don't think they want to go against Donald Trump in a situation related to American military inaction elsewhere. Other things I think are important to mention about the Canadian situation is Mark Carney did tip off at the Munich Security Conference. He did say he's not going to open up diplomatic relations with Iran until there is a regime change. So big picture framing from both countries is essentially the same. Iran's nuclear program represents an unacceptable threat to global security. But again, I want to go back to, and I think this is a super important thing to address is the illegality of the war and what this does to the United States in terms of its position going forward. Because every time an empire has gone in this direction, it's created unnatural alliances. And I think one of the beauties of the United States over the last 80 years is it wasn't ultimately trying to do this might makes right sort of flex. I'm going to start answering some of these questions. So Deborah's 7300 is asking, is this to divert attention from Trump's Epstein mess? The answer to that, Deborah, is yes, it is. Okay, let's go to the next question. Alex Dunn, how can the president declare war without Congress? And so he technically can't declare the war. War without Congress, Alex. But what he can do, he has emergency authorization and emergency provisions that he can do, which he is now doing. This is much better than the terrible deal Obama made with. Right Ran. I guess this is the more reasonable solution. This is from taxi man 683. Well, listen, if it works out for the United States and there is a regime change, we do know that There is more than half of the Iranian population that is upset with this repressive regime. We do know that this regime has been a force for terror around the world. And so that is a possibility that that could happen. But there's a great question here that I'd like you to address, Nicola King. What happens if US Personnel starts being killed?
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Katty Kay
So I think, Nicola, this is the key question because we're in the first hours of this and I'm very wary of making too many predictions about how this pans out until we see what's happened, until we see whether US personnel around the Middle east and my understanding is, you know, kind of there was steps were taken to try to protect US bases. Obviously there are US Basins in the region, including in Bahrain, a big one and there were attempts to made to protect US bases. We've seen American embassies move out non critical personnel over the last few days. And so far the message coming from the White House is that there haven't been any US Personnel who have been attacked or hurt in this. But I think everybody that I've been in contact with this morning is surprised at the speed with which Iran has retaliated this time around with the missile strikes in the region compared to the last time around. And that suggests that actually they had enough capability anyway and we, we don't know exactly what their capability is. There's a lot of discussion about that. But they had enough capability to respond and to respond quickly. They were expecting this, they had a plan of action. One senator said to me this morning, look, my real concern is what happens later. They're more worried about the later low tech attacks on Americans than the retaliation strikes today, suggesting that those strikes don't seem to have hurt somebody. But if there is a, if there are Americans who are hurt or if this story about the school I think and the school girls being attacked and many of them being killed turns out to be true. And we're waiting to get the confirmation of that. I think you could see this having an impact on Donald Trump politically. There's a, I got a, I was in touch with somebody from the MAGA world this morning is close to the President who said, look, it all depends to your point, Nicola, it all depends on how this pans out. Do you, I mean the polls were not great for this, right Anthony, what is it? An ABC poll out the last couple of days, 56% don't trust him to make the right decisions.
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Anthony Zurcher
Nobody wanted this caddy, okay? But we're in it now. And so now the question is, obviously you want the best possible outcome and you want peaceful Iranians to take over their country and you want them to be less terror oriented and you want them to be less isolated from the rest of the world. Imagine a situation where that could happen. So we certainly want all that. But the United States doesn't have a great track record with regime change, as you and I both know. But I want to. I want to.
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Katty Kay
And the opposition, by the way, in Iran is not particularly organized, it's not particularly well armed in order to succeed. I mean, that's what Donald Trump is saying. There's look, take this opportunity. It might be the best one you have. In a country that had a well organized, well armed, clear, top down structured opposition, that would be one thing. But my understanding is that's a big, I think the number of unknowns here are what are worrying people.
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Anthony Zurcher
I want to role play with you for a second. We're in the Situation Room and you're the president and I'm your chief assistant, I'm the joint chief of staff and I say to you, President Kay, we have seven to ten days of munitions. President Kay we have low stockpiles all over the world, even though we have a trillion dollar military. If we're going to do this level of military adventurism, what is the end game? How much of a strike can we put on the Iranians and will that create regime change or not create regime change? And I just want to add to this this morning, our friend Senator Chris Kroons, the senator from Delaware was on the on the air this morning saying that if it backfires, the repressive regime will start killing more of its own citizens. So now you're the President of the United States. I say this to you and you say, well what?
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Katty Kay
Senator Coons said the same thing by the way, to me this morning as well, that they're worried about this, you know, enormous amounts of repression. If this backfires, I say to you, I want to know what the odds are of the Iranian opposition being well organized enough that they could take over control of all of the apparatus of the Iranian government if we move moved out Ayatollah Khamenei, and not just Ayatollah Khamenei, but we've got to get rid of the nuclear infrastructure and the people who are in charge of that nuclear infrastructure. We have to get rid of sufficient numbers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Tell me that we can do that, Mr. National Security Advisor, and that they will be gone, that the police will not then Stay loyal to other factions within the regime who would step in and see instead. I would want all of those questions answered before I took action of this type. Now, the counter to that, Mr. National Security Advisor, is is the Iranian regime weakened in a way that we have not seen in the last decade or two? And would we be crazy not to take this opportunity to have a chance at getting rid of a regime that is wants to annihilate Israel, the West and the United States and is trying to build a nuclear weapon which will make the world less safe? I don't think that. Can you answer those questions, Mr. National Security Advisor? Can you give me the answers to all of those questions, please?
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Anthony Zurcher
Well, I can't actually, you know, and you're fired.
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Katty Kay
You're fired, Mr. Scaramucci.
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Anthony Zurcher
Well, but you fired me after 11 minutes. I would have. I lasted 11 days in the real world. But here's the point. I'm making that point by illustrating this example.
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Katty Kay
Too many questions without answers.
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Anthony Zurcher
Yes, exactly. And how perilous and how dangerous this all is. But number one, I think people need to know because they are asking, is this illegal? And the answer is, yes, it's illegal. Let's not pretend otherwise. Number two, as an American who loves my country and as a patriot, would I have recommended this strike? I would not have recommended this strike. You can call me whatever you want, but this military flexing like this ultimately does not help the United States. And again, I understand the need for people who are pro Iranian citizens. They certainly want the regime change. But I think this is a very dangerous way to go about it and it always has a doctrine of unintended consequences. But go to the Trump base for a second. Katty, tell me what you think the Trump base is thinking about all this. I know Fox News is beating the drum and the jingoism, but really the Trump base is not super happy with this, are they?
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Katty Kay
No. So this is really, this is interesting. If you look at that ABC poll, you don't have 100% of Republicans supporting this. And I think you've got like 20% who are very worried about some kind of military action in Iran. The fact that you have 56% who don't trust Donald Trump in the country world broadly to make the right decisions on this. This is not what. This is two things. This is not what MAGA signed up for. This is not America. First, they were not thrilled with the military action in Venezuela, but they tolerated it because it was one strike in and out. But we saw the polls around that beforehand. Maga voices are trying to, apart from people like Tucker Carlson who have opposed this. But there are MAGA voices online who are saying, this is great. This is what our president was elected to do. Nobody else has been brave enough to do this. He's strong enough. He can obliterate the Iranian threat. And look, maybe this does all work out like that. Maybe this all works out. But maga, as we have seen in poll after poll, want Donald Trump to focus on affordability and immigration. But they're happy with that now because the border is safe. But really, they want him to focus at home. They want him to focus on domestic issues. And Iran is he. He has said it himself. The irony of this is when they struck Venezuela, you had people in the administration saying, well, this is right next door. This is not. What did he say at that time? He said, this is different from Iraq because It's not a 24 hour plane ride away. Well, Iraq, in my latest looking at a map, Iraq was right next to Iran. So. So he was making the case that you don't want to be doing foreign adventures off in the Middle East. And I think what he hasn't done, and all the polling shows this. He has, all of the polling has shown this recently. He has not made the case domestically for why this had to be done now, why now? Why did this have to be done right now when he told us he'd obliterated Iran's nuclear program last summer? Were they rebuilding it this quickly? Were they on the point of launching an attack against the United States? Was there some. We, we have not heard that. And that's why you've got members of Congress saying we need more briefing on this to be happy with this action. Democratic members of Congress, Republican members of Congress are keeping quiet about this.
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Anthony Zurcher
Well, I think it's important for people to understand the psychology here because I have said on this program that Trump is gonna move the goalposts on you. You're loyal to me. Yes, I am. Okay. I'm not for forever wars. Okay, you're not. Okay. I'm gonna vote for you. I'm now president. I'm for forever wars. If you're loyal to me, it's asymmetric and it's unconditional loyalty. And so you now have to be for the forever wars. Okay. And this is what he does to everybody. And so I'm just going to say this, that MAGA fractures over this for sure. You mentioned Tucker Carlson. There'll be others. Vivek Ramaswamy is fracturing from this. The Populace are not going to be happy. People are asking about the markets. Let's address that. I think it's too early. Markets are down a little bit. Oil is up a little bit. But I think it's too early until we really see the full effect of this. But right now it's early. But let me tell you something, $5.50 a gallon in the United States as a result of this action, not going to make people happy. Okay? The media ecosystem is also something to watch here because the Netflix guys went to see Trump and the White White House last week and Trump said, bye, bye, my buddies, the Ellison family are going to buy this thing. Okay? And I wrote a piece which I'm going to put out today on monopolistic power Caddy and how dangerous monopolistic power is in a society because it's really the last vestiges of unregulated crony capitalism. Okay? And so you've got the danger now that the media ecosystem is going to support him in a reckless way, in my opinion, with some level of lack of objectivity.
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Katty Kay
I'm going to push back a little bit there, Anthony, because I don't think that's going to be the whole of the media ecosystem. I think you have plenty of good, solid American reporters at the Wall Street Journal, not a particularly left wing, hippie, dippy organization. You've got them at the New York Times, you've got the Washington Post, even under Jeff Bezos. You've got across American television networks and online platforms who are going to hold the administration to account as, as journalists should with any administration. I do think you're going to have questions about what happens to cbs, but that's.
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Anthony Zurcher
I hope you're right. I hope you're right. But watch the FCC and watch the administration crack down on these people because Trump is an instinctive guy and what he does not want to have happen is over the next 48 to 72 hours caddy, he does not want anybody to have a license to dissent from him. And if you got Tucker Carson opening up a seam or Fox News opening up a seam and that starts to happen, that will erode his support. But I, I, I, I take your point and I really do hope you're right.
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Katty Kay
We're just going to take a quick break and then we're going to come back with some of your questions and some the of polls that we've been asking you about.
- [25:09]
Anthony Zurcher
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Katty Kay
Yeah, and moms are always tricky to shop for every year.
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Anthony Zurcher
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Katty Kay
And what I love is that you can preload it. Right, Anthony, with photos. You can personalize it. So even if your mom isn't great at tech, you can make it easy for her.
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Anthony Zurcher
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Katty Kay
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Anthony Zurcher
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- [26:21]
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- [27:21]
Katty Kay
Quick couple of polls, let's get to those that we've asked you guys. They're about 10,000 of you listening so far. Will Trump's attacks on Iran weaken the U.S. 79% of you say yes, they will weaken the U.S. donald Trump, of course, and many people in the MAGA world are framing this as an act of strength. But there are already attacks against American activities assets in the region and there could be Long term further attacks. And we don't know whether this leads to reassuring regime change or not or leads to more chaos and a hardening of the regime in the US And I think it's also going to raise questions about amongst America's allies once we see how this pans out about America. Like you say, believing only that might makes right quick, quick. Other poll that I wanted to get your response to. What's the most likely scenario in the wake of these strikes? We've asked you. Successful regime change 5% A civil war in Iran 31% US defeated by Iran 8% Another forever war 56% do you think this leads to another forever war, Anthony?
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Anthony Zurcher
I don't think we have the four strike capability for a forever war. And so I don't think it can lead to a forever war because you can't get the troops in there. You know, one of the big problems if you talk to the military about Iran and it including the distance that you were describing earlier, you'd have to base troops and you'd have to amass troops for six months before you could get in there. You could bomb them. You could do the things that we're doing right now. But again, if it doesn't create regime change, okay, it may have a refactoring effect. Remember when your country's getting bombed, you even if you don't like your government, you may end up siding with your government in terms of the self defense of the country.
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Katty Kay
It's an awesome thing. People don't like their country being attacked. It's kind of weird by outside forces. We've sort of learned that recently. But I agree with you. I don't think, I actually don't. And I also think MAGA and Republicans would not actually tolerate a big on the ground presence of American troops in Iran. I think that would be something that would lead to more, even more of a fracturing of maga. So I don't, I don't think this is another forever war. Even if it's a few days. I think it's more likely to be a few days that ends up with a very messy situation in Iran than it is to be a long running war like it was.
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Anthony Zurcher
Because I've been scrolling through the comments and it hasn't come up yet. At least maybe it has. I missed it. But the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, small width, 22 mile width 25% of of the world's oil is coming through that strait. Lots of it is going to China. Other parts of the world. But for some reason, if that closes, you do have a catastrophic. And I'm going to repeat this, a catastrophic economic event, because you'll shut down 25% of the world's oil, and you'll send the oil prices to the roof. And so the US has to be monitoring that as well. Okay. And that's a big danger. Caddy. Somebody is asking the question. Mary Lee Dillon is asking the question, what is Putin getting out of this? So I have my thoughts, Gaddy, but what are your thoughts? What is Putin getting out of this?
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Katty Kay
So we know that the Iranians and the Russians have been working together in the war in Ukraine. The Russians and the Iranians have been working together on drone purchases that the Russians have been taking from the Iranians, at least initially, they've been getting Iranian oil. I think Russia likes the sight of America getting involved in something that could potentially cause damage to the United States. Anything that causes damage to the US around the world and undermines support for the US around the world, anything that sees American assets being attacked is a good day for Vladimir Putin. I don't see much other way to see this. I mean, they don't really need those Iranian drones anymore because they've now figured out how to make enough of them themselves, and they're getting technology, more technology parts from other places. So I don't see how this isn't a good thing for the Russians.
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Anthony Zurcher
What do you think in addition to all that? I'll just name a couple of things. Okay. Every. Every Tomahawk missile that's fired at Iran can't go to the Ukrainians. Not that Trump is giving them any anymore anyway, but it increases his leverage in Ukraine massively because it's another big distraction. Don't forget that Russia is still an oil and gas superpower. So if the energy prices go up, it's money that goes directly into the pocket of the Russians, helps them fund the war. And also the diplomatic positioning on this, Mary Lee Dillon is a gift to Vladimir Putin because he can simultaneously play peacemaker and victim. He can go to the UN and rally the global south against America. And, you know, he can team up with China, and he can share the narrative of Western imperialism, Western unilateral aggression, and of course, with the BRIC nations as they're trying to find a way away from the US Dollar and the hegemony of the US Dollar. This could also play to his hands there. And so, you know, this, he's loving,
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Katty Kay
but it's also, I think, the other thing is it does reinforce what Mark Carney had said because to your point, this is internationally illegal. I think we, we have to see how this pans out to know whether Congress will actually get involved and whether he has to go to Congress to continue this legally in the United States. But it totally underlines what Mark Carney said in Davos. So that there's the international rules based order that we have all spoken about for so long, works in some ways for some people and in some ways for other people. So I think it helps Vladimir Putin, like you say it helps.
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Anthony Zurcher
It is, it is a misguided forward vision. The U S should be focusing on rebuilding its infrastructure, rebuilding its education, rebuilding the system that made America great. Actually, this flat decentralized system which is
- [33:42]
Katty Kay
exactly what American voters tell us in every poll.
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Anthony Zurcher
And they're moving in this authoritarian thing. Caddy Larry, do you mind if I ask you one more question and then I'll tell you? Larry Marcus. Larry Marcus, 2231. Caddy, does the administration really believe that the US mainland is untouchable? Have they even considered that possibility? What do you say about that?
- [34:04]
Katty Kay
So look, I think I know that people in the CIA and the FBI and in the intelligence community have always worried about Iranian sleeper cells in the US homeland. They were worried about this on the strikes last time around last summer. And we didn't actually see any of those cells materialize or certainly we didn't see them strike US assets. So I know there are concerns among some people in the intelligence community that are not enough has been done to lay the groundwork for this in terms of making sure that there isn't retaliation at some point against American assets, whether it's these sleeper cells that we see acting in the United States or somewhere else abroad. But I think the real concern is less the US mainland. I don't think anyone's very concerned about the Iranians attacking the US mainland right now with missiles. They can't do that. But they are concerned about the Iranians taking action against US personnel, embassy personnel, military personnel, American embassies around the world. If I am the American ambassador in Switzerland right now, I have suddenly stepped up my, the security apparatus around my facility. You have to. So I think that is more of the concern than some kind of a strike against the American homeland. But I do know that they have looked at and been worried about sleeper cells in the United States.
- [35:29]
Anthony Zurcher
So I'll just say two quick words on this. For 45 years they've been building this asymmetric terror organization around the world. And so it's not impossible for them to, to inflict damage on the homeland. I think it'd be very costly for Donald Trump, though, if, you know, he's probably thinking to himself, I can manage the downside risk and that'll consolidate people around me if some people are hurt here in the homeland. But I really think it's gonna cause, I mean, Trump has the risk now where people are exhausted that, you know, you talk about Trump derangement syndrome, but there's also Trump fatigue syndrome. Trump has the risk now where the average American, even those that voted for him, said, hey, I didn't sign up for this. I am now fatigued with this guy's unilateral craziness and now look at what's going on in our backyard. So to me, I think that's a big danger.
- [36:23]
Katty Kay
So I think that gets to this question. This is a good one from Ram Boat Trout. Will this be used to mess with the midterms? I think we spoke a little bit about the timing of this and I know that Alistair and Rory on their live stream that they did earlier also questioned the timing of this. Anthony, you spoke about Epstein and we should dig into that a little bit more because there's lots of questions about Epstein. But I think there, if we are all looking for timing questions, I think there is a way in which Donald Trump did not want to do this the month before the midterm elections in case this all turns out really badly. To your point about how people are exhausted, they're exhausted because there is so much news. We had to do a live stream, but on tariffs just 10 days ago, that seems like three years ago because there is non stop drama coming out of this administration. And so in a way, I think he thinks if he does this now, if his national security advisor has not been able to answer the question sufficiently and this doesn't pan out, then I guess that they can hope in six months time people will have moved on because they flood the zone with other issues. But I do, I, I think the bigger midterm question is the question. Here you go. This is the one that I wanted to get to. Butterflies are for free. Butterflies are free. 2703. Why is it our job to change the regime in Iran? We've got our own problems with the government ice. I think it's more than ice. I think it's a very good point. That's. That is the point. You do it now because you hope that by the time that you get to the midterms. Scott Besant is right. The American economy is doing better. That is their only hope. They can turn around the approval ratings. And if this all goes and becomes a shit show or just fizzles out and there isn't regime change or there's regime change, but as is the case, look at the Middle east, right? Look at the Arab Spring, look at Libya, you have regime change, but it's actually no better than the regime that was there in the first place in terms of welcome America.
- [38:14]
Anthony Zurcher
Point is that you get over. It's a very tough time.
- [38:17]
Katty Kay
It's a very, it's a very tough neck of the woods.
- [38:20]
Anthony Zurcher
Bacari, let me answer Butterflies are free a little differently, if you don't mind. Butterflies are free. The Department of Justice has been caught covering up accusations of Donald Trump raping children. Okay, Caddy, Am I making that up? Caddy? I mean, that's, we reported that last week. The Wall Street Journal is putting that out, the New York Times. I'm not making that up. That's not me saying it. So butterflies are free. Hey, man, I got to get the gun off that bird. One way to get the gun off that burb is let's bomb Iran, right? And so just don't forget that everything is tied together. And this school children hit Caddy is going to be a big tragedy for,
- [39:06]
Katty Kay
I think it's going to be a huge tragedy for the United States.
- [39:09]
Anthony Zurcher
It's going to be really problematic and, and it's going to cause civil disobedience in the United States. People are going to look at this and say, okay, wait a minute now. This is actually also a regime. We're talking about the Iranians as a regime, but the United States is acting unilaterally. Donald Trump is saying he wants to disavow the Supreme Court and apply the tariffs any which way that he wants, even though it's outside of the person view of the Constitution. He's now going after the Iranians. We know it's illegal internationally. He can take some cover domestically, Caddy, but this is now acting like a regime. I love my country, and thankfully for right now, I still have free speech in my country. At some point, a group of people are going to get together and act as dissidents in the United States. And so, you know, again, you talk about the midterms. Maybe that'll be the action. But then again, who knows, maybe Donald Trump will say, hey, I got to put the National Guard in every blue state and I'm going to require voter ID from every single person in the blue states. So I can suppress the blue state votes on my way into these midterms, you know, and if you tell me that that's not on the table for Donald Trump, we're 13 months into this, this mental midget second term, and he's capable of doing anything. So people think that he's not capable of doing it, or people think, oh, that's ridiculous. No, it's not ridiculous.
- [40:45]
Katty Kay
By the way, you and I said exactly this 10 days ago, that when Donald Trump takes a hit domestically or feels threatened domestically and his powers have been curtailed by the Supreme Court recently domestically. Watch for continued activity around the world. Quick couple of updates, guys. The British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer says the British planes are in the sky today in the Middle east as part of coordinated regional defensive operations to protect our people, our interests and our allies. So America's allies around the world are now having to take military action to protect themselves because of the strikes that have been launched by the Iranians and by the Israelis. And this is also interesting. Reuters is saying that two senior Iranian officials are believed to have been killed in the attacks. The Defense Minister and the Revolutionary Guards commander have been killed. Okay, I want to, before we end this, I want to put one scenario to you. Let's say, Anthony, which is what some MAGA people are saying. And it's why I think everybody's slightly holding their fire a little bit on this. Let's say they get rid of the regime. They successfully decapitate the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, they successfully decapitate the nuclear program. This time actually decapitated. And they get rid of Ayatollah Khamenei. Let's, let's say that happens and a way is opened up. I think the chances of this and our polling amongst you guys suggest this is also the case. I think it's not a clear possibility. But anyway. And the way is wakened up for regime change in Iran, which is more Western friendly. A regime comes in that is more Western friendly. At that point, does Donald Trump look like he was the right. This was the right thing to do. So do you have to depend on.
- [42:39]
Anthony Zurcher
Let me take two more steps to that. Okay. The Iran's military capability significantly degraded. Their terror networks significant degraded. The regime is in transition. By mid summer, oil prices have stabilized. American casualties are minimal. I think that's going to be very beneficial to Donald Trump and I think that would probably help them. Okay, so, so, and somebody's asking, well, don't you want to free Iran? Of course I want to free Iran.
- [43:07]
Katty Kay
And that's why I think it's worth playing out this scenario.
- [43:09]
David McCloskey
Let me.
- [43:09]
Anthony Zurcher
Let me tell you something, okay? What you learn when you go into these. These jobs. So you read the Presidential Daily Brief.
- [43:15]
Katty Kay
The.
- [43:16]
Anthony Zurcher
It's not Hollywood, ladies and gentlemen. There are a 20% probability of this, a 50% probability of that, a 71% probably this. The American intelligence agencies know some things, but they don't know everything. And one thing you and I both know, Caddy, is they don't know what certainty. Just about anything. Right?
- [43:36]
Katty Kay
Yeah.
- [43:37]
Anthony Zurcher
You. You. You know that and I know that. And so. So I'm just saying, of course I want a free Iran. Of course I want this to work out okay. We're in it now. And so I'm praying for the best possible outcome. I'll say something to piss everybody off. I'm praying for the best possible outcome. Even if it helps Donald Trump, who I can't stand as a human being, I'm praying for that best possible outcome. But, Caddy, this stuff can spin out of control, okay? It can spin out of control very, very quickly. I just want to make sure people, Donald Trump's.
- [44:09]
Katty Kay
As Donald Rumsfeld once said, there are so many known unknowns and unknown unknowns, and there, in this case, there are a lot of things that the international. That the intelligence, US Intelligence community isn't totally up on.
- [44:21]
Anthony Zurcher
Do you think the winner of the FIFA Peace Prize is gonna win the Nobel Peace Prize as a result of this action?
- [44:31]
Katty Kay
Kat? I think he. He can say goodbye to the Nobel Peace Prize as a result of the. This action and watch this story about the kids in that school. I agree with you that that is exactly the kind of thing that will make both Americans and people around the world think this is America acting in a way that is lawless, unfettered, and throwing its weight around and just being a bully around the world and. And that damages America in the long term because the next time, America wants people to support it on what's other countries.
- [45:03]
Anthony Zurcher
And again, guys, I want this to end positively, and I want this to end in a way that is good for the Iranians, which is exactly also
- [45:13]
Katty Kay
what sensible Democrats and sensible Republicans are saying this morning.
- [45:17]
Anthony Zurcher
And I want there to be a democratic transition in Iran. Who wouldn't want that? Of course I want that. But I'm just telling you, 25 years of observing military adventurous in the Middle east, it didn't Caddy. Did it work out in Libya? Did it work out in Syria? Has it really worked out in Iraq? What about Afghanistan, where we replaced the Taliban with the Taliban Caddy. Has it, has it worked out?
- [45:47]
Katty Kay
No, it hasn't. And that and here's and Donald Trump ran and won an election on the basis that those wars didn't work out and he was going to be the guy that got America out of those wars. Now what the White House would say is this is different. We're just going with strikes, no boots on the ground. We had a once in a lifetime opportunity to decapitate a regime. I think we all have to wait and see what happens. Okay, guys, we're going to take a break here. We're going to watch this obviously over the next few days and then as things unfold, we'll come back, give you updates when we think it's it's worth giving you updates and when there is something new for us to say. So thank you guys for joining us.
- [46:28]
Anthony Zurcher
Another busy you guys being on the comments and questions, guys, great questions.
- [46:32]
Katty Kay
Thanks, guys.
- [46:33]
Anthony Zurcher
Thank you.
- [46:40]
Gordon Carrera
Did Vladimir Putin interfere in the US 2016 presidential election? Gordon I'm Gordon Carrera, national security journalist.
- [46:49]
David McCloskey
And I'm David McCloskey, author and former CIA analyst. And we are the hosts of the Rest Is Classified. And in our latest series, we're going deep inside the 2016 election to reveal the true story of whether the Russians helped Donald Trump take the White House.
- [47:03]
Gordon Carrera
This is the unbelievable story of how Russian spies first hacked and then leaked emails belonging to Hillary Clinton's campaign, how Julian Assange got involved with Putin spies, and how 2016 marked the point that the world changed forever.
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David McCloskey
Get the full insider scoop by listening to the Rest Is Classified. Wherever you get your podcasts.