The Rest Is Politics: US – Episode 163

TRUMP STRIKES IRAN – ARE WE AT WAR?
Date: February 28, 2026
Hosts: Anthony Scaramucci (The Mooch), Katty Kay

Episode Overview

In this high-stakes emergency episode, hosts Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci react in real time to the United States’ and Israel’s joint military strikes against Iran. With events unfolding rapidly, Katty and Anthony draw on insider messages from Washington, congressional sources, and international reactions to unpack the military, political, and legal implications of Trump’s decision—while also analyzing the mood in Congress, the MAGA base, and among America’s allies and adversaries.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Breaking Down the Strikes

[00:07]

• Katty opens with context: U.S. and Israeli strikes hit Iran; Iran retaliates rapidly across the region.
• Uncertainty prevails: No reported U.S. casualties yet, but civilian casualties (including reports of a school being hit) emerge from Iran.
• President Trump warns Americans to brace for possible casualties and describes this as “what happens when you go to war.”
• Trump’s social media statement notably calls on Iranians to overthrow their government.

2. Motives, Timing, and Political Calculations

[01:41] – [03:36]

• Anthony notes that many predicted a Trump strike on Iran, aligning with his impulsive personality:

  “He’s not going to put that level of assets in the region and then pull back. It’s just not his personality.” – Anthony Zurcher [01:50]

• They discuss the overlap between political distraction (Epstein scandal, poor poll numbers) and military action.
• Trump has previously accused President Obama of using war to distract from scandals—a contradiction Katty contrasts with Trump’s own actions.

3. Legality and Process: Was This War Legal?

[03:36] – [08:59]

• Discussion on whether the strikes had congressional approval.
• Per Katty, normally Congress' "Gang of Eight" would be briefed, but sources indicate irregular access:
• Anthony insists the war is illegal by international law:

  “This is a direct violation of the international law that the United States set up.” – Anthony Zurcher [06:57]

• Domestically, presidents have wide latitude for strikes without full congressional approval—a trend exacerbated by congressional inaction.

4. America’s Global Allies and Reactions

[08:59] – [10:35]

• Strong nations “don’t really suffer” for breaking international law; the usual rules don’t apply.
• Western allies (Canada, Australia) issue cautious support, likely more to avoid confrontation with Trump than out of conviction.
  – Katty notes:

  “No country wants Iran at this point to get a nuclear weapon, apart from perhaps Iran’s allies… But it’s noticeable what Mark Carney did not say.” [09:33]

5. Audience Questions: Diversion and Emergency Powers

[10:35] – [15:12]

• Anthony affirms: Yes, the strikes are partly to divert attention from Epstein.
• Legality of war powers: “He technically can’t declare… but has emergency provisions.” – Anthony [12:25]
• Strong skepticism whether regime change is a realistic or responsible outcome.

6. Dangers, Endgames & “Known Unknowns”

[15:12] – [19:51]

• Regime change: U.S. track record is poor and opposition inside Iran is neither organized nor armed for rapid takeover.
• Role-playing “what would you do in the Situation Room?” Both hosts stress unknowns and the risk of massive unintended consequences.
• Anthony reiterates: “Would I have recommended this strike? I would not. This military flexing ultimately does not help.” [18:56]

7. MAGA Response and U.S. Public Opinion

[19:51] – [22:06]

• MAGA base is divided: Some see strength, others didn’t “sign up for this.”
• Polling shows distrust in Trump’s decision-making:

  “56% don’t trust him to make the right decisions.” – Katty Kay [15:00]

• No clear domestic case has been made for immediate action; uncertainty about briefing Congress persists.

8. Economy, Oil, and Global Markets

[22:06] – [29:12]

• Early market jitters: Oil up, stocks down slightly—too soon to gauge impact.
• Anthony warns:

  “$5.50 a gallon as a result of this action—not going to make people happy.” [22:56]

• Strategic risk: closure of Strait of Hormuz could be “catastrophic,” affecting 25% of world oil supply.

9. Media Landscape & Democracy

[23:53] – [24:59]

• Anthony fears a compliant media ecosystem, but Katty pushes back, expecting critical journalism from mainstream outlets—though worries remain about consolidation and FCC crackdowns.

10. Geopolitical Winners: Russia, China, and the “Axis of No Rules”

[29:48] – [32:51]

• Both hosts agree: Vladimir Putin stands to benefit as U.S. is distracted, oil prices rise, and U.S. loses global standing.
• Russia can play peacemaker, victim, and use events to undermine U.S. dollar hegemony.

11. Risks of Retaliation and Extended Conflict

[13:02], [34:04] – [35:29]

• Real risk is not a direct attack on U.S. homeland, but on U.S. embassies and personnel globally.
• Concerns over Iranian sleeper cells, asymmetric tactics.
• Anthony: “Trump has the risk now where the average American—even those that voted for him—say, ‘I didn’t sign up for this.’”

12. Electoral and Domestic Ramifications

[36:23] – [39:09]

• Timing relative to midterms is strategic; administration may hope damage is short-lived in public opinion.
• “Why is it our job to change the regime in Iran?”—audience questions why America prioritizes foreign upheavals over domestic issues.

13. Casualties and Fallouts

[39:09] – [44:21]

• Unconfirmed but potentially serious civilian casualties in Iran (notably at a school) could deeply damage U.S. international reputation.
• Anthony warns of unrest, civil disobedience if U.S. appears “regime-like” in its lawlessness.

14. Scenario Planning and Historical Context

[42:38] – [44:30]

• If regime change succeeds and is peaceful, Trump may benefit politically—but such outcomes are rare and uncertain.
• U.S. intelligence rarely provides certainty; “so many known unknowns and unknown unknowns.”
• Cautionary note: previous interventions (Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan) haven’t panned out as planned.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the legalities:

  “This is a direct violation of the international law that the United States set up… Congress… ceded their war powers… this is an illegal war.” – Anthony Scaramucci [06:57]

• On Trump’s motives:

  “Trump looks at this and says this is a major distraction. How do we stay in office? We… stay in office by putting up the fight.” – Anthony [03:36]

• On historical precedents:

  “The United States doesn’t have a great track record with regime change… The opposition in Iran is not particularly organized, not particularly well armed.” – Katty Kay [15:38]

• On risk of escalation:

  “If there are Americans who are hurt… if this story about the school and the schoolgirls being attacked and many of them killed turns out to be true… you could see this having an impact on Donald Trump politically.” – Katty [14:53]

• On global alliances:

  “Western allies don’t want Iran with a nuclear weapon, but it’s noticeable what Mark Carney did not say—he did not call out the action as illegal.” – Katty [09:33]

• On U.S. domestic fatigue:

  “Trump fatigue syndrome: even those that voted for him say, ‘Hey, I didn’t sign up for this.’” – Anthony [35:23]

• On economic nuclear options:

  “If [Strait of Hormuz] closes, you do have a catastrophic economic event… you’ll send oil prices through the roof.” – Anthony [29:48]

• On wishful outcomes:

  “I’m praying for the best possible outcome—even if it helps Donald Trump, who I can’t stand—I’m praying for that best possible outcome… But this stuff can spin out of control.” – Anthony [43:36]

Audience Polls & Reactions

[27:20] – [29:12]

• Will Trump’s attacks on Iran weaken the U.S.?
  • 79% say yes.
• Most likely scenario post-strikes:
  • Successful regime change: 5%
  • Civil war in Iran: 31%
  • U.S. defeated by Iran: 8%
  • Another forever war: 56%

Geopolitical and Domestic Implications

• The strikes further fray the post-WWII international order; allies like Canada and Australia issue only tepid support.
• Adversaries like Russia and China may exploit Western division and U.S. distraction.
• Domestically, Americans are divided and fatigued, with core Trump supporters showing cracks.
• The economic risk (notably energy prices) and global uncertainty are high.
• Possible escalation and civilian casualties could drastically alter American and international support.

Conclusion

Anthony and Katty close with deep concern: The U.S. may be entering a dangerous period, both globally and domestically, with unpredictable consequences. The echo from U.S. wars for regime change looms large, polling shows little support, and both hosts agree that even if the strikes “succeed,” the aftermath may be more chaotic than triumphant. The world (and the U.S.) is watching—hoping for peace, but fearing the worst.

Key Timestamps

| Time | Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------| | 00:07 | Breaking news: Strikes on Iran start | | 01:41 | Anthony on Trump’s likely motives | | 03:36 | Congressional and legal background | | 06:57 | International legality discussion | | 08:59 | Western allies’ reaction | | 10:35 | Listener questions: diversion, emergency powers| | 15:38 | Regime change issues, historical precedent | | 19:51 | MAGA polling & base reaction | | 22:56 | Economic fallout prediction | | 29:48 | Oil choke points: the Strait of Hormuz | | 34:04 | Iran’s retaliation potential & sleeper cells | | 36:23 | Timing vs. U.S. midterms | | 39:09 | Risks posed by civilian casualties | | 42:38 | Scenario: What if regime change "works"? | | 43:36 | Call for best possible outcome | | 45:46 | Caution over “no boots on the ground” claims |

Episode Verdict:
A gripping, highly analytical look at the perils of unilateral military action, this episode captures the uncertainty, political calculation, and looming dangers of Trump’s Iran gamble—and why the world is holding its breath.