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- [00:00]
A
Foreign.
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B
Welcome to the rest is politics. US with me, Kathy K. Anthony. Can I make a complaint? Just like, can I get it off my chest before we even start?
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A
Yeah, go ahead.
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B
It's super cold today. It snowed about an inch in Washington, and Yesterday it was 80 degrees.
- [00:23]
A
Palm trees, Kenny. That's my response. Okay. Palm trees. Here, take a look.
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B
Yeah, you've got palm trees. You got bougie Hollywood. Okay, so that's what I would like.
- [00:31]
A
I'm in a bougie Hollywood hotel, very nice for Oscar week, because I'm an American and Americans are unapologetically bougie.
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B
Are you up for a prize?
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A
Unlike you Brits who are bougie, but try to pretend you're not bougie. You know, it's that sort of thing.
- [00:43]
B
Are you up for best performing podcast host that likes bougie hotels prize? Is that what you're getting?
- [00:51]
A
No, I think I'm. I think I'm number 17th on the list. I saw Michael Lewis's name 1 through 16. I think I'm 17th on the list anyway.
- [01:00]
B
Brought out in me. Look, weather is my. I should have been a weather girl. I should have been a weather person because this is ridiculous. You'd always have something to talk about. We are going to talk about whether Donald Trump is in step with America over the war in Iran. And there's been some kind of interesting politics news, so we're going to do a little bit of domestic politics. I think Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson have had things to say about the war. We will talk about how the exit strategy may or may not be going for Iran. I'm starting to sense people feeling more nervous in this town than they were a week ago. Had a couple of conversations with MAGA types just in the last day, which were interesting. As we record this, we should say it is Thursday evening in Washington, Thursday afternoon in sunny Los Angeles. Not that we need to rub that in. And we have just had the news that a US Refueling plane has crashed in Iraq. We don't have the latest on any casualties surrounding that or how that happened, but just to let you know, that happened.
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A
But we should also point out, Katie, we don't know how it crashed.
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B
Another plane was involved, which is curious. Right?
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A
Okay.
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B
Yes.
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A
So we don't know if it's sabotage or not.
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B
There were two planes involved. One landed safely, one seems to have crashed. So we don't know very much about that. But we do know that the number of casualties actually is higher from the first week of the campaign than we had initially been reported or led to believe so obvious. And the number of people who are affected by this campaign will affect the president's support for it in the population. Right. I mean, Anthony, obviously there's two things, it seems to me, that are dramatically affecting support for it. And we can talk about that price of oil, and then the number of casualties would be another American casualties.
- [02:39]
A
So, Katie, before we get into all of that, and you know, I'm going to lead with my punchline, is Trump out of step with America? I think Trump is not only out of step with America, he's out of step with maga. But before we get on all that, I have to ask a journalist, a journalist question. Is the press doing a good job reporting on what is actually happening in the Middle east as it relates to the missiles, drone strikes on our Gulf allies? What's going on with the U.S. the Navy? How come the Navy can't get in there and sweep the mines? Why is our Navy less aggressive than you would think, being the largest navy in the world, et cetera? How do you think our press, Western journalism is doing in the reporting on the war?
- [03:23]
B
Look, I think there are some really good defense correspondents. I think Shashan Joshi, shout out to him at the Economist, is really good, knows his stuff. I follow his stuff very closely. And he's very good on the details of what the Navy is and isn't doing. In fact, he just did something recently on why it's difficult to get these tankers through the Straits of Hormuz and why that's a particularly hard strait to navigate. Piece of water to navigate. Would I like. Yes, I think you're right. You're getting at something. I would like more information on why these drones and missiles and mines are still producing a threat when what we hear from the Pentagon is gross numbers of the number of targets that have been struck by the American forces, as opposed to the impact those strikes have had. And I feel like we're missing something there. We're hearing from the Pentagon we've struck X number of thousand targets, but we're not necessarily understanding the implications of that. And it's hard to see when the president says we've struck, whatever it is, 20 mining boats, and yet we still aren't getting tankers safely through the Straits of Hormuz. And why is it difficult to escort those tankers through the Straits of Hormuz or why do they even need escorting through the Straits of Hormuz if, as the president says, we have basically obliterated Iran's Capacity to retaliate. I see where you're coming from in that. There's a disconnect there. And maybe part of this is that the Pentagon threw out correspondence six months ago. And so it's a little harder to get the information that we would normally expect to be getting.
- [04:57]
A
I think they've done a disastrous job. And I think that the Arab states are wicked pissed off at the Americans for what's going on down there. Yeah, Remember, I have capital in the area, I have capital investors in the area. Talking to a lot of people, they think the thing has been ridiculously mishandled. And the notion that the quote unquote, world's biggest military would not workshop and have a war game plan where the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, closed. And 20% of the oil, which affects fertilizer, microprocessors, and I could name 50 other things, fabrics, textiles, et cetera, around the world has now been hampered as a result of this. The fact that they had no contingency plan for this. And I know for certain, and I'm going to report it directly on this podcast, because I understand that we're upsetting people in MAGA that we getting all these different insights. I know for certain they thought they were going to decapitate the regime's head and then the regime was gonna topple. It was sort of like the Wicked witch melting in the wizard of Oz. And then all the guards were gonna say, geez, I'm sorry, Dorothy, of course, Orange Dorothy being Donald Trump. And then everyone was gonna skip down the yellow brick road together. So that obviously did not happen. In fact, if anything, they've hardened the regime. So no, I don't think we're reporting it well. And I think he's got the living daylight scared out of a lot of reporters.
- [06:20]
B
I actually think there's been a lot of critical reporting of the lack of planning, the problems, particularly with the oil markets. I mean, if you look at the front pages of the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Washington Post and most of the tv, they're all full of stories. I mean, the Wall Street Journal in particular are full of stories about how there are knock on consequences that don't seem to have been planned for.
- [06:43]
A
Let me rephrase the question. Is the war going well for the Americans and the Israelis?
- [06:48]
B
No, I think the war is not going well at the moment. And I think that's a shift. I mean, I think it's been interesting to see in the past, even in the past three or four days, Largely driven by what's happening in the Gulf and the oil markets, how much concern there is in the White House. But in MAGA world, I've been in contact with a couple of MAGA supporters today of the presidents who are pretty close to the President and they're both acknowledging that. One of them said to me, it's all about energy now. It's all about energy. And you and I raised this earlier this week. Why didn't they plan for this? You bomb the Middle east, the Straits of Hormuz get affected. I mean, it was such a no brainer that it makes you wonder where is Doug Burgam, the former governor of North Dakota who's now interior Minister who understands oil markets? Why is the Energy Department sending out tweets saying that the tankers are being escorted by military vessels when U.S. military vessels, when they're not? I mean, that level of incompetence makes you worry about not just the reasons for the war, but now I think what is facing them is right now the White House is having to think what is our exit strategy because we can't sustain this level of discontent around gas prices much longer. Isn't that what you're hearing to, I mean, apart and what you're hearing from the allies in the region?
- [08:08]
A
Yeah, but I mean this is, you know, bin Laden said this. Bin Laden said we're going to hit you, you're going to overreact. You're going to spill your blood and treasure here. We're going to exhaust you like we've exhausted every other empire you're going to evacu. We're going to still be here.
- [08:23]
B
And the Iranians have heard the word Taqo.
- [08:25]
A
They went from Khomeini to Khamenei in less than a Scaramucci. And that's better than the 20 years the Taliban to the Taliban. But let me follow up with another question if you don't mind, because it's somewhat Shakespearean. The man who built his brand on America first and his coalition is a group of anti conservative conservatives that are all about America first, may be remembered for a war that put America last. Okay, so where are we there? Caddy?
- [08:55]
B
You think so? That's interesting.
- [08:56]
A
His group of supporters is super happy with the war and how it's going down.
- [09:00]
B
A quick caveat on the polling before we get into this because support in the country for the war at the moment 13 days in about 50 50, the country is split. Most Democrats, 86% say they don't like it. Interestingly, 6 in 10 independents also say they don't like it. But when you look at Republican polling on this, you' 84% either strongly supporting or generally supporting the American military involvement in the region. So what I think that you've got. I'm not sure that he's lost MAGA over this. I don't think I agree with you on that one. I think you've got a couple of very outspoken MAGA voices who have a lot of weight. Joe Rogan, who has said on Tuesday on a podcast that the war in Iran is crazy. He says it's left America feeling betrayed. He said Trump ran on no more wars. End these stupid, senseless wars, and then we have one that we can't even really clearly define, define why we did it. So you've got Joe Rogan there saying that. You've got Tucker Carlson, obviously being very close to people in the region, particularly for example, the Qataris being a strong critic of Israel, saying that he opposes this war. But if you look at that 84% figure of Republicans, and this is what the White House is banking on, I am told they think that the American public is still with them. The thing they are really concerned about is gas prices. But they think they have another four to six weeks. I'm told of this campaign and managing to keep the support of the American public. I think that may be pie in the sky. I don't know what they're smoking in the White House. I don't think they've only had gas prices rising for a week and they're already panicked about it and they're already looking around to see what they can do about it. But I don't know. I don't think yet that we can say he's lost all of MAGA over this. I still think Donald Trump's grip of MAGA is very powerful.
- [10:48]
A
I want to restate. I think you've convinced me. And I would just go back to some of the polling because I looked at the different polls and the weighted average is north of 80%. So that's evidence to what, in the
- [11:00]
B
Republican Party, you mean?
- [11:02]
A
Yes, in the Republican Party and maga. So that's more evidence to what you're saying. And it's interesting, depending on how they ask the question, Gaddy, it goes from 88 to 68, you know, because they can finagle the question a little bit to rile people away from the president. But in fairness, I'm going to, I'm going to see to you that 80, 90% of MAGA still with the President, guys, Unbelievable. Shooting people on Fifth Avenue, shooting people in the Strait of Hormuz. No problem. He can do anything that he wants to do with a very large group of people. But what I think makes politics interesting in the United States is the differential. And what happens with the independents, who unfortunately, when it's not going your way with the independents, they decide the election. And I think this split is hurting him because there are tens of millions of people that are listening to Tucker. Candace, I'll name the names. You know the names.
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B
Yes.
- [11:58]
A
Ann Coulter, et cetera. And none of them are happy, right? Are any of them representing themselves? This is great. Let's jingoistically. George Bush. George W. Bush, too. And by the way, you know this because I have watched you for 20 years on shows like Morning Joe and the BBC. You know that Iran is a way more difficult terrain and a way more difficult country to attack then Iraq. You know this, I know this. And so I don't know, tell me, Caddy, what's the planning? Tell me how he's doing and tell me and tell me who you know. Let's make the case for him. Look, everyone says, well, I don't like him, so that's my thing. No, I'm trying to be objective. Let's make the case for him. Push back on what I'm saying. But I think he's gonna start losing big Republicans. Ted Cruz is gonna split for a moment. He wants to run for president. J.D. vance, who he put in the wood chipper, as the chipper's going, he said, I told you, I told you, as he's going into the wood chipper.
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B
And there is Trump flying around the country telling everybody how wonderful little Marco is.
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A
Okay, but Vance. But it turns out that he's helping Vance.
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B
Vance may be on the right side
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A
of this one, but Cruz is gonna have to get on that side if he wants to run for president. Okay, go.
- [13:18]
B
Here's the other side of this that I'm hearing that's interesting from some Trump supporters, but who are the hawkish Trump supporters? Because they're the ones who are now saying, listen. And actually you're even hearing some Democrats saying this. Interestingly, having started this, having created this chaos in the region that this bombing campaign has created, he actually has to carry on. And one Trump supporter said to me, he doesn't want to end up being George H.W. bush after Gulf War, War One, where he started the job and never finished off Saddam Hussein. And so now what you're hearing some Republicans pushing Trump. And I think Trump is kind of hearing these different voices. Some of them are saying, listen, you've got to go for regime change at this point because the worst thing would be to go in having spent, what is it, we've spent $12 billion. The numbers are just eye popping. Having spent $12 billion in 13 days, if you then leave in place and a regime that is anti American, they're just going to start rebuilding their ballistic missile campaign as soon as you turn your back. And as Trump said yesterday, he said it in Kentucky, we don't want to be in a position where going back in there in two or three years time. Well, that is the concern of some people in the hawkish world who are pushing him, saying, okay, you've got to make sure that you actually finish the job that you've started having gone in there. So I think he's hearing it from all sides and I don't think he's hearing anyone saying actually that this is going super well. I think he is hearing the message. They are worried in the White House about these gas prices and this appearance that things are going chaotically.
- [14:51]
A
How do you think they're doing with the Gulf State allies? And so this would be people in Qatar, this would be people in Bahrain, uae, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. How do you think, how do you think we're doing with them?
- [15:05]
B
Well, I think they don't like the disruption to the energy sector either. Right. I mean, their whole economies are based on this. I mean, what's interesting is first of all, the Saudis didn't really like this. MBS jumped on this one. My understanding is when the war started, because he realized it was going to start anyway because Netanyahu had been Trump whispering and had got Trump to a position where Trump felt, okay, let's go for it. MBS thought, okay, I better jump into this because I don't want to be left out of the table. I want to have some say in this. But I don't think he was ever a big fan of this. And now they're in a position, position where their main sectors have been disrupted and will be disrupted for a long time. They can't rely on the Americans to pull this off efficiently and they're still getting attacked in the region. Okay, yes, I understand the missile strikes have gone down in number a lot, but they haven't stopped. This has not been a one and done in and out mission. This was not Venezuela. This is not Cuba.
- [16:01]
A
Well, I want to get you to react, if you don't mind, because these numbers are staggering. And I just want to read them to our viewers and listeners briefly. $600 million lost business per day. Airport is shut down, Trade is shut down. Remember that's a big port. People coming through there to connect, they can't land there. The hotel bookings are down 60%. 3,000 flights per day have been disrupted. 80% of the flights have been canceled. Of course, the Dubai financial markets were suspended trading on March 2nd and 3rd. Okay. It's the first wartime closure in UA history. They have branded themselves as a neutral place. They're good with the Russians, they're good with the Americans, they're good with everybody. Thousands of years as a trading port, they did something that's really going to hurt them. They arrested a couple of Brits that were photographing bombs going into the airport and bombs going into the apartment.
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B
The reputational hit all over is bad.
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A
They may have served two to three years in jail for a quote unquote cyber crime of displaying the violence that's happening in the area. But again, that hurts their reputation as this place of great freedom and great hospitality. You're seeing the ugly side of the situation, right? Lastly, you got 6.7 million barrels a day. Can't get through the strait. So if you were the Dubai head of tourism, let's say you were Minister Altuk, who's a friend of mine, they spent 30 years building this brand. And it was a brand of stable, tax free wealth, magnetized the whole expat community here. Get away from the volatility outside of your traditional markets, Come into our market. And it turns out we're in the last scene of Westworld.
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B
Turns out geography matters after all.
- [17:55]
A
Yeah. So you know, Trump is not just an arsonist, he has set fire to the entire region. And so again Caddy, you're well sourced in Washington, so go ahead, tell me. The administration saying lots of that. You know, we war gamed all this. Trump was playing 19D chess with BB and all of this was in our plan or what do you think is going on here?
- [18:21]
B
I mean clearly not and clearly that has pissed people off and the reputational damage could take years to overcome. I mean people, we live in a world where people have amazingly short term memory. So I don't know, maybe in six months time people are going back on holiday to Dubai for their winter holidays and the expats are all moving back there and they think everything is fine. We live in a kind of weird topsy turvy world and I don't discount that that's a possibility. But set that against, okay, the seriousness of the impact on the, this to the people in the region. Not to discount the fact that we've had, I think, more than a thousand children who have been killed in these strikes as well. And the acknowledgement, begrudging acknowledgement from the Americans that, yes, they did actually bomb that school and 150 kids and teachers were killed because they had the coordinates out of date. I mean, that having said, we don't do that kind of thing, the least you can do at that point is show some empathy and take responsibility for it, which they're still really loathe to do as far as I can see in the White House and the Pentagon. But set that seriousness against. Here is Donald Trump. Do you want to know what he said last night when he was out? He's been out in Kentucky and Ohio supporting candidates out there for the midterm elections. Here is what he said. They gave me a list of names to choose, sir. You can pick the name you'd like, sir. I said, the name of what? The name of the attack on Iran, sir. And they gave me like 20 names. I'm like falling asleep. I didn't like any of the. Then I see epic fury and I said, I like that name, I like that name. This is how Donald Trump is talking about this campaign in the heartland of America right now, this campaign that is causing a huge amount of disruption. He's dancing to ymca, talking about the gamification of the name. How reassuring is that going to be to people both in the region and to Americans as they watch their prices go up? And at the same time he's saying, we're done, we won on day one, we've got to stay until we finish. We don't want to have to go back in two years time. I mean, in the space of the last 24 hours, he's both said that they've won already, that it's almost over, there are no more targets, and said we've got to stay to make sure that we don't have to go back again and we finish the job. I mean, it's not surprising that people. It's surprising perhaps that 80% of Republicans think this is a good idea. But it's not surprising that you've got a rising number of Americans who are worried both about petrol prices and the strikes generally, because this is what happens when you don't have a clear strategy and a clear communication of the strategy. But I thought that whole section in his long speech, over an hour long speech in Ohio where he talks about the name. And I mean, it's classic Trump. It doesn't surprise you, but that's what he's focused on, is that it has a great name.
- [21:00]
A
Mr. President, I voted for you. I'm Pro Maga. I'm America First. First, you campaigned on ending forever wars. I'm now upset with you. Nick Fuentes is telling me to vote Democrat. So I'm not gonna vote for you, Mr. President. I'm gonna look for a solution. Trump's response to those people is, well, you were never really MAGA anyway. That's Trump's response. He's saying that flat out.
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B
That's what he's saying out on these campaigns.
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A
Okay, so then who's maga? That's one question. And then the other question, Gatti, like, if I was advising these people, people, I'd be like, hey, man, your most dangerous critic isn't the one that hates you, because everyone knows that that person hates you. And so they build in the hate factor. Your most dangerous critic is the one that. Who endorsed you, Catty K, and now feels betrayed by you, AKA Joe Rogan. So how would you play that amazing communication strategist that you are, and let's channel some maga, be in the White House. What would you say to the president, these guys are breaking from you. It's gonna really hurt us in the midterms. What would your recommendations be to these people?
- [22:07]
B
I think there is only one person in the White House who can have a conversation with Donald Trump at the moment and say, we have a problem and we need to do something about that. And that's probably Scott Besant. The Trump president still does listen to the Treasury Secretary and they can speak the same language. And he feels that Besant is on his side. A bunch of other people who ought to be able to talk to him and give him a clear message he's not listening to. But I think this is the problem of a president to whom nobody is saying, these are the pitfalls. My understanding is that when they went to him before the strikes began and said, these are the second and third consequences, he didn't want to listen. And we said this right at the very beginning. There's a reason you need a clear articulation of the strategy, because when you start getting into trouble, you need to be able to go to your public. You need to be able to go to your voters and Joe Rogan and say, here is the message. We could not let the Iranians have nuclear weapons. We could not let the Iranians have ballistic missile programs. We could not let them carry on sponsor terrorism around the region. The regime was very weak. This was the best shot we had. They never articulated the message like that. It was all over the place. It was regime change. It was, we're going to send in ground troops. It was not regime change. It was, we're going to help the Kurds. We're going to promote a civil form and a civil war. The message was all over the place. And that is the problem. And what is Joe Rogan saying? Joe Rogan was saying, we don't understand why we're there because the message has been all over the place. I don't think he's suddenly going to start changing that now. I don't think he's suddenly going to get. Just based on the last 24 hours when he's talking about the confusion around the exit strategy, I don't know that he's suddenly going to start coming up with a message that's going to satisfy Joe Rogan.
- [23:58]
A
Yeah, I think Joe Rogan is a huge problem for Trump. You and I have said it many times. He speaks to alpha male independence, conservatively streaked in one way, socially agnostic. And he's giving them space now to also break from Trump. And again, These politics are 1 in inches in differentials.
- [24:18]
B
Maybe, Anthony, people like Joe Rogan shouldn't be surprised that Donald Trump runs on one thing and then offers something else, because you and I have been doing this series for our founding members on the early years of Donald Trump. And what was one of the things we found that when he ran for politics? This week's episode is all about his very early runs for politics in the Reform Party. And even back then, he says one thing at one point in his career and then runs on something else. He has multiple different positions throughout his political career on multiple different subjects. So maybe America first and no Stupid wars is just another one of those things he has different positions on.
- [24:59]
A
Well, or maybe he has no positions. Gatti. And that's the most interesting thing about him. He's just going with the breeze, going with the wind. He's figured out that he's a grievance based guy. He's collected a lot of grievance based people. And so he's just. It's like a rotisserie of what could potentially happen. But I think it's important for people. If you really want to understand this guy, tune into this message. I think we have a clip, right?
- [25:24]
B
Yeah. I mean, just take a listen to how his positions changed even back when he first ran for politics in 2000.
- [25:32]
A
So he's one time tax on the wealthy. That's a wealth tax. That's very controversial in California right now. But that's a Trump idea. From this book. He talks about health care being run as universal health care, as an entitlement. These are socially left leaning issues. Right?
- [25:52]
B
Sounds like a Democrat.
- [25:53]
A
He's talking about a supporter of gay rights. He says that there was a, there was a gay man murdered by the name of Matthew Shepard. He says it's a hate crime. He was pro choice caddy. Again, I just want people to know where Trump was. So when I'm working with him, I'm like, well, you know, he's not super far to the right. He's always been a New York based, sort of socially inclusive person. He's always talked about that. At least he didn't eventually go in that direction.
- [26:21]
B
But can I just say one thing, Anthony, before we go? This is so important because I think also Donald Trump is not totally out of step with Republican voters at this point. So it's not just that Donald Trump has changed. The Republican Party has become far more conservative than it was back in 2000.
- [26:41]
A
It has, it is the last white hope. That's how they look at it. This is the last gasp of culture that never really existed in the country that they think they want to bring back. This is the stupid cultural. I think this is important at that time. He's not an extremist. He's decrying people like Pat Buchanan or David Duke.
- [27:03]
B
If you'd like to hear the rest of that series, do become a founding member and sign up@therealestispoliticsus.com and you can find the whole series there.
- [27:11]
A
Have you ever heard of a woman by the name of Carrie Prejean Bowler? Have you ever heard of her?
- [27:17]
B
No.
- [27:17]
A
Okay, so she was a woman that was appointed. She's a Roman Catholic and she was appointed to the Religious Liberty Commission. Okay. And this is, you know, she's a big donor to the campaign and they're giving her this plaudit of being on the Religious Liberty Commission. She got a message from the White house yesterday. Dear Mrs. Bowler, on behalf of President Donald J. Trump, I am acting to inform you that your position as a member of the Religious Liberty Commission is terminated, effective immediately. Thank you for your service. Mary Sprouse, Personnel director. Now, what happened was she's a Catholic and guess who doesn't support the war? Catty.
- [27:58]
B
That'll be Pope Leo.
- [27:59]
A
Right. You have to remember this, okay? Because I'm coming At this, because Vance is tied to this. Okay? So the Bishops have spoke out about it, the Pope has spoke out about it. This woman who's exercising her religious liberty, who happens to be on the Religious Liberty Commission, spoke out against the war and the White House immediately terminated her. And again, the only reason why I'm bringing this up is that you're now killing your own. These are people that gave you money. These are people that worked for you. These are people that advocated for you and voted for you, but you're all over the place. Some of them are anchored in that principles and you're strafing them. Okay? And so he, by the way, he does it to everybody. He did it to me and he does it to everybody. So the good news is misery loves company. You know, Ms. Prejean Bowler, I'm sorry he did it to you, but I responded to her this morning on X and said, hey, he does it to everybody. And she wrote a four page open letter to the President. I said, listen, he's not reading that cuz he's not reading though. He's not reading the war plans. Why are you laughing?
- [29:08]
B
Four pages. The chances of Donald Trump reading a four page letter that's been sent to him on X. No.
- [29:13]
A
Even if Miriam Adelson, who gave him $250 million, sent him a four page letter.
- [29:18]
B
Yeah. He's still not reading a four page letter. No.
- [29:20]
A
You got a better chance that he eats the letter with ketchup than he would read the letter. But I'm bringing her up as an obscure person, but I'm bringing her up for a reason. He's going to take out everybody, Caddy. Okay? He's going to keep shooting and keep shooting and keep shooting. And the 80% number that you're referencing, which is, you know, bolsters your point of view, is going to degrade and he can't afford a lot of degradation. He can't afford it.
- [29:48]
B
Okay, we're going to take a quick break here and we'll come back with more in a second.
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C
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- [30:10]
B
I'm so relieved.
- [30:11]
A
No problem. I'll be with you every step of the way.
- [30:14]
C
One in four was a fraud. Paying American not Anymore. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com podcast terms apply.
- [30:28]
B
Well, he can't afford it given the midterms and given how the polls are looking because they're not looking good right now for him. There's a new Economist YouGov poll that's finding that Latinos favor Democratic candidates over Republicans by 43 to 27. If you remember, it was Latinos, of course, who put Donald Trump, helped put Donald Trump in the White House in 2024. The prediction markets now have the odds of Democrats flipping the House and they've gone up from 69% likelihood to 85% likelihood. The prediction markets clearly think that they're going to lose the House. So a question for you. If Donald Trump is seriously worried about losing the House and all of his tours, there he is going around the country trying to shore up MAGA candidates or Donald Trump friendly candidates in the midterm elections. And his poll, he knows what the polls are telling him. He's even talking now in the kind of language that is saying it's normal for a president to lose seats in the midterm election. So he knows that and the White House knows that there's a very good chance that they lose the House of Representatives. What, what are they doing? What are they doing to try and make Americans feel better? Because I think they know that Americans don't like this. I think they know this coming comes with great peril. I've heard one plausible scenario which he thinks is that he has four weeks, then the gas prices go down again. And just in time for summer when Americans are traveling and you get a bit of a spending and kind of sugar high from the gas prices coming back down again. That sounds way too well thought out and planned. And the chances of it all going to that kind of plan seem that's a big gamble to me. But anyway, that's the only plausible scenario that I've heard. But what do you think they're doing to try and turn around those midterm numbers?
- [32:11]
A
Well, I think the first thing you said is the most true because I'm still on their fundraising form, letter dissemination. And so what they said this morning was, hey, we need your money. Since 1938, of the 22 midterms or whatever the number was, the incumbent president has lost 20 of the 22 midterms. And so this is to be expected. They're trying to build in the midterm loss, but send us your money so to see if we can not do that. But the big thing is they care. The House cares, the Senate cares. Trump is acting like he doesn't care. And again, I want to stipulate this
- [32:55]
B
may sound repetitive, maybe, and accept that he's going to be.
- [32:57]
A
That's the point. Thank you, Katty. Because I have been saying to people, he doesn't care. You're not getting his money. You may get his tepid endorsement. He doesn't care.
- [33:09]
B
He's fundraising for himself. I mean, he's fundraising off the war in Iran. He's making a lot of money already out of that. But I don't think he's gonna necessarily spend it on beleaguered candidates. Right. So here's the best chance then for Republicans is the Democrats, because there's what? There's this new NBC News poll just came out this week showing that 30% of registered voters have a positive view of the Democratic Party, 52% see it negatively. Even in other polls, Democrats don't see the Democratic Party well. And you sent me something which I thought was super interesting and I wanted to talk to you about which was Barack Obama, Jesse Jackson, the legendary civil rights leader whose funeral was earlier this week. And Barack Obama spoke at the funeral, and most of it, this 20 minute eulogy was about Jesse Jackson and the civil rights movement. But at the very end, he talks about living in a time where it's difficult to hope and we have people in power who don't think that you count very much, or maybe they think you don't count very at all and they aren't looking out for you. And this was picked up in kind of, of conservative circles. As you know, there's Barack Obama trying to divide the nation again. And you sent me that. And I went back and listened to the whole speech and I thought, well, it was only a minute, but actually, I think you were really onto something. And I had a conversation with a couple of Democrats about this who said to me that they were concerned that this just distracts from the message that that made it about Obama. It didn't make it about the question of economics and affordability, and that's what Democrats should only be speaking about. Was that what you were thinking? Why was it that you thought Barack Obama shouldn't have been talking like that at Jesse Jackson's funeral?
- [34:58]
A
Well, because he is a statesman. I like the president. I like President Obama, but he is playing off of Trump's sheet music.
- [35:07]
B
He's been dragged down into the fray.
- [35:09]
A
That's what I'm saying. You know, he's in the fight with the pig. And the pig likes the mud and you're not supposed to be in the mud with the pig and you're to supposed you're getting money. You follow what I'm saying?
- [35:18]
B
Yeah, and usually he doesn't, he's pretty careful.
- [35:20]
A
I think it's distracting and I think it hurts them further. Get on message. Affordability process. The Constitution. Let's end these wars. Americans, it turns out likes immigration. Your friends at Axios did that whole bill of consensus rights this morning which is very well done. You know it turns out the Americans like immigration. They want fairness in their society. They want the government off the back of businesses. They don't want them intervening in the businesses the way Trump is doing it. You know, but you know, listen, I mean Katty, Wall street is pricing because I'm on Wall Street, I'm telling you what Wall street is pricing. They're looking around and saying we now control Venezuela. They still see a positive outcome or potential near term ceasefire. And Wall street is now pricing as of this afternoon, five rate cuts. Gatty K, that's 125 basis points. Now let me just remind everybody listening in. Interest rates are the physical gravity of financial assets. As interest rates go down, asset values go up because it has to do with the net present value of the cash flow that comes from those assets. If that's too complicated, it just means that people are willing to pay more for your assets if they're produc in a lower interest rate environment. And so Wall street was down today because the news is showing tankers on fire and the news is showing unfortunately despicable antisemitism where there's a shooter in Michigan going after people at a synagogue. So Wall street doesn't like that, doesn't like that uncertainty. But generally Wall street is looking at this thing like it's going to end well.
- [37:08]
B
Do you think the markets are right, Anthony?
- [37:10]
A
So I think that or just that
- [37:13]
B
it's going to end soon.
- [37:14]
A
I was going to say Dom Rumsfeld said the Iraq war was going to end in six weeks and it didn't. And I'm going to say something that I actually don't know the answer to and maybe you do, but how are you going to get the minds out of these Strait of Hormuz? The USS Gerald Ford or the USS Abraham Lincoln, a $13 trillion 13, excuse me, $13 billion aircraft carrier is not going to do it. But how are you going to get it out of there? You know what? It turns out we don't have the capability to do that we just have this very big ponderous Navy. Okay, so do you have to put ground troops in to the area? Do you have to control the whole port around where the Iranians are, where the American troops put the 101st Airborne in by parachute and start shooting everybody in the area to control the port to then go in and take the mines out? Because if you have to do that, Wall Street's not ready for that one. Okay? And the Gulf is not ready for that one. But the Iranians, you got a guy where you killed his father, his wife, I think he killed his sister and his mother and a couple of his kids. And there are reports that he's wounded. He may have lost a leg or a limb. I don't know if any of that's true. But do you think he might be pissed off and you think he might be a radical? I don't know. He might be. Okay, so you're playing with people on the other side that don't care about death. And so to me, there's a mispricing. So Wall Street's probably not right, but they're probably right on where Donald Trump is. There are reports on Arab television, okay. There's reports in the Gulf that the administration has reached out to the Iranians twice and asked for a ceasefire and a return to the negotiating table. And they're launching statements saying that they don't want that, they don't have an interest in that, and they want compensation, caddy, for the damage that's been inflicted on them by Israel and the United States. So does that sound like a war to you that's going to end very quickly?
- [39:21]
B
I see a world in which Donald Trump gets spooked by the oil prices and the Straits of Hormuz and, you know, kind of, right, done and dusted, I'm gone. But I don't see a world in which that ends well.
- [39:33]
A
So, Katty, a lot of Americans don't know this, so I want to share it with people. The US decommissioned four dedicated minesweepers from the Persian Gulf last September. So this is four months before the war started. We sent them home, and we don't have anything in the area that can really sweep the mines. And by the way, we're blowing up their miners. The Pentagon has reported that, that they blew up 16 of their miners, the boats that actually lay down the mines. But there hasn't been one report from the United States or the Pentagon that we've taken any mines out of the water. Water, okay. And this is the main reason Caddy Why the Navy doesn't want to go in there and escort the boats? Because, Katie, could you imagine if one of our destroyers hits a mine while it's trying to protect a non American flagged tanker coming through the Strait of Hormuz? So, so, so again, I just want to point out to everybody that there was no Mr. President. Yes, well, we're going to hit them. They have a 20 year plan to react. They're going to shoot at our allies and they're going to close the strait and they're going to mine the strait. And we decommissioned our minesweepers. Okay, well, you know, that was probably longer than four pages and so President Trump can't give that to him.
- [41:00]
B
I mean, it's a bit like the targeting of the school. I mean it's not the same, obviously it's not the same activity, but it's, it gets to weaknesses in the system and in the decision making process. There are reports that the types of people who were meant to be there in the Pentagon, whose job it was to make sure that you didn't target things where there were civilian casualties. Some of those departments have been downgraded and the personnel numbers have been shrunk under this administration because as Pete Hegseth likes to say, we're fighting without concerns about rules and we're not fighting with kind of WOKE principles anymore. Well, if that turns out to be the reason that they had outdated data and targeted a building that was a school and they killed a whole bunch of school kids because they had not paid enough attention to civilian casualties. Well, again, it gets to a bit like the decommissioned minesweepers. It gets to this great military which we are being told can do no wrong and achieves the best results of any military in the world. It makes you start to wonder, does it actually, or is it actually flawed and fallible in the way that every organization in the world in all of history has always been? Because organizations have flaws.
- [42:21]
A
Give us something optimistic before we depart. Caddy cake.
- [42:24]
B
Look, it's going to get warm again here. That has to have been the last snow we had. That was it. I'm done with the snow, I'm done with winter. Otherwise, I'm joining you in Los Angeles. You are off to. Not only are you in Los Angeles, you're about to go to Hawaii as well. I mean, are you just doing this to rub my nose in the fact that I'm still sitting here with half an inch of snow?
- [42:43]
A
I must have got jinx on Hawaii because there's a four. There's a category four storm there. So we're going to stay in la. I'm not going to be able to make it to Hawaii, but, Cady, I'm going to be. I'm going to be optimistic for a second. Okay, I'm going to say something optimistic. This has exposed a very dangerous miscomprehension of a very small group of people about how the world works. And it turns out that the systems and the processes that the Americans, alongside of their allies had in place for 80 years was generally a good system. And I'm going to make the bet that there's very smart people in America that are going to come together. And so, weirdly, what these mostly men, some women, but mostly men have done here is they've exposed that the way we were doing things and thinking about these things actually generally worked. Again, granted, not without mistakes and certainly with levels of imperfection, but the processes generally work. And maybe with God's good grace, we'll get back to those processes. And so that's my optimistic note before we end.
- [43:58]
B
Okay, guys, we're going to leave it there. We will be back next week with more, of course, and the latest on Iran as well, next week. Thanks for listening.
- [44:06]
A
Have a great week, guys. We'll see you next week.