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B
Hello and welcome to the Rest is Politics US. I'm Katie Kay in Washington, D.C. sometimes I feel like I'm here, so you don't have to be. Anthony, I'm doing you a public service. How about that?
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A
Thank you. Because I, I break out in a rash. I break out in the hives when I'm in Washington. It's not a great place for me. I have an expiration date. I wilt in Washington faster than lettuce and eggs gatti, but not as fast as milk. All right, so what are we talking about today?
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B
Well, I think we are going to talk about the latest on Iran. There's been amazing amounts of news just in the last 24 hours or so. Strikes on gas fields, missiles across the Gulf. Donald Trump scrambling to contain the crisis. Huge splits now between the US And Israel. I want to talk about what that means for Israel in America because I think we're seeing a big shift happening. And then in the second half of the show, we're going to bring it back home a little bit. Of course, it's all related, but we're going to look at the Save America act, the SAVE act, this Voting Restriction act that Donald Trump is trying to ram through Congress. It's not going to get there, but it tells us a lot about Donald Trump's fears. I think that's why I want to talk about that and what he's trying to do to voting in America. So let's start with a quick update on what's happened. We are now day 20, I think, of the war in Iran. We're drifting into quagmire territory, I reckon. Israel has struck Iran's South Pass gas field. They have killed the intelligence minister. They've launched some of their most intense strikes both in Iran and in Lebanon. Iran has retaliated by launching missiles against oil and gas facilities, including overnight across Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the uae. In an extraordinary truth social post late last night, Donald Trump promised that Israel wouldn't carry out any further attacks on energy infrastructure and demanded that Iran pledged to do the same. And he threatened that if Iranian strikes on Qatari oil fields, the South Pass oil fields continue, America will, quote, massively blow up the entirety of the South Pas gas field. Donald Trump is saying that he didn't know about the Israeli attacks on Iranian energy, but all of the reporting in Washington is that he did know about it. And people in the security world that I've spoken to said there is no way that Israel would have launched those attacks without CENTCOM knowing about it. I was told something really interesting last week Anthony, that I wanted to get your reaction to by somebody who knows Trump pretty well and speaks to him regularly. Do you remember when Kristi Noem. This sounds like a bit of an aside, but it's, I promise you I'll do the weave and bring it back. When Kristi Noem was fired, it was ostensibly because she told the Senate that Donald Trump knew about her advertising campaign, the $220 million she'd spent on advertising. And Donald Trump then came out and said, no, I didn't know about it. And it made it look like Kristi Noem was pretending that the president knew when he didn't. I was told that actually Donald Trump knew all about that advertising campaign and in fact was encouraging other members of the cabinet to spend money on advertising campaigns and was saying to them, look, why aren't you doing what Christie's doing? So we know that Donald Trump doesn't always tell the truth. And I reckon that he did know about these strikes, but he puts out a truth social post saying that he didn't know anything about them. If we are drifting into quagmire territory, what are Donald Trump's options right now, apart from kind of saying this is all the Israelis fault, which is what he seems to have been saying overnight.
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A
So he did this to UN Ambassador Nikki Haley in the first term. He said, go out and say X, Y, Z. She went out and said it. It blew back on him. He said he never told her to say it. And he criticized her. She went on the Sunday shows to say, no, no, he totally told me to do this. And so he does.
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B
He absolutely puts people out there, they tell the truth, and then he says they're lying.
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A
It's very consistent with what he does. So I'm gonna believe that it's also consistent with what he would do to the Israelis right now. Because as you and I have reported on this show, he is flummoxed by a couple of things. He's flummoxed by the divergence of interests
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B
which you and I have reported between Israel and Iran.
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A
You mean, meaning he didn't want to kill all those guys. They got killed by the Israelis. He didn't want to bomb certain areas, they bombed them anyway. And I think he's flummoxed by this. He doesn't understand why he doesn't have more control over the Israeli military. And so that's number one. Number two, he gives everybody a tell, guys. So let's, let's talk about the tell. I did not think that they were going to attack The Gulf states. He said that the other day in the room, and he said it twice. Actually said it again with the Irish PM who I thought did a really good job caddy. He handled Trump about as well as anybody could handle Trump in terms of deflecting him, stating some European values and getting out of the room without getting
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B
scarred, making the case for immigration, making
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A
the case for immigration and getting out of the room without getting scarred by Trump. So he did really well. But. But on this topic, it's very important for people, because I want to give everybody what I know, and what I know is Trump is furious. Lindsey Graham has told you that. What I know is Trump cannot believe that his luck has run out in Iran. Trump cannot believe that they hit back as hard as they hit back. He cannot believe that he may have to deploy ground troops. You know this, and I know this. The US Marines, there's a 2200 Marine Expeditionary Force heading to the Middle East. And the military strategists are telling Trump, you're going to have to drop those guys off by the Strait of Hormuz on the eastern side of the strait where the Iranians are, and you're going to have to dig in and you're going to have to blow the Iranians back at least 50 miles off the strait so that you can make sure that anything that they're going to try to put into the strait can't get manually put into the strait. Okay, so that's on the table now. Okay. So people need to be aware of that. They're probably not there yet.
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B
The force is moving from the Japan area, which means that forces are now being taken away from other hotspots around the world into the Middle east as well.
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A
Yeah, the Japanese are not in love with that because they have a security agreement with us. And obviously the boats are circling Taiwan, which is, quote, unquote, war games by the Chinese. But, you know, the Chinese have said repeatedly, and she has said quietly that, you know, he wants to be bigger than Mao. And the way you become bigger than Mao is you reconnect the island of Formosa, Taiwan, you reconnected to the mainland, something that Mao could not do. Okay, so last point, Caddy Love your reaction to this. Did the death of Khamenei Sr. Did it create the opposite effect of what Trump wanted?
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B
What do you mean?
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A
I'll give you my point. I think killing off the Supreme Leader on February 28 has caused way more problems than it was going to solve. I think they had a kill switch. He dies, we're in a death cult together. Here are the 25 things that we're going to do if the Israelis or the Americans take out the Supreme Leader. And my question to American intelligence people and the Mossad, you guys didn't know that? Trump said. And you know this caddy, Trump said, hey, if they take me out, there's a whole list of things here that my people are sworn to do in my absence. You don't think the Supreme Leader had that?
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B
Yeah, they've been planning this for years, and that's why we're seeing this retaliation. There's two things going on. One is that the Israelis are going after all of the leadership that they can. There's amazing reporting by the Wall Street Journal detailing how much intelligence they have inside Iran. If you haven't seen the TV show Tehran, watch it, because this all feels very real and very relevant right now. That Wall Street Journal article, we'll put a link to it in our newsletter. They have got very good inside sources on what the intel is in Israel and how they are going after this leadership. And the implication of the Wall Street Journal's reporting is that they're going down, systematically down, right down to the kind of local police level in order to try and create the circumstances that Donald Trump has wanted all along that would allow the Iranian population to rise up. But at the same time, we're getting reports today that there have been more hangings in Tehran and more people have been shot for going out on the streets. So there's enough of a security apparatus still in position in Iran, Tehran, to stop any prospect of an uprising at the moment. But at the moment, the thinking is that's in Israel. The thinking is that's what they're still trying to ferment. I am under the impression that in the White House, the reporting is. What I've heard is they've given up on that idea. They've given up on the idea that there's going to be an uprising, which is what Donald Trump went into this hoping that there would be. And so that was why they wanted to get rid of this leadership. And they didn't understand how deep this bench went and what those kill switches were. But what the White House would like. They will never say this in public, but this is what they want. They want Iran to come back to the negotiating table, and they want to negotiate the terms and conditions of an end to this, which would include keeping the Straits of Hormuz open and keeping them open, you know, in the long term, not just for a week or Two, they're not going to say that publicly because for Donald Trump, that feels like weakness and backing down. But that's actually where the negotiations are heading at the moment. The problem is that's not what the Israelis want, which is why you're getting this now. Public divergence, which we've reported on before, what I'm told by reporters who cover this much more closely than I do in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and they say, well, actually what Bibi wants is for this to go on forever because this is the way he gets out of investigation into what happened around October 7, around his corruption. Once this war is over, he is out of power and potentially in prison. So there's a real split now between Israel's needs and Trump's needs. Here we are Thursday the 19th, what are we, 20 days into this? And I'm picking up in Washington overnight because of these attacks on the oil fields and the LNG fields and what that means for the energy markets. I'm picking up real panic here in Washington that Trump has lost control of this and we've headed into quagmire territory and they don't know how to get out of this. The window for getting out of this and being able to claim a plausible victory has now closed. How do the markets respond to what's happened overnight? How does the economy respond to what's happened overnight? Is there any way, do you think that Donald Trump can now end this and claim victory, or is the long term ramifications of the energy crisis now has made that impossible for him?
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A
Okay, so let's just be candid with everybody. There's really no victory here because you're not going to get what Trump wanted. I think you did get what Bibi wanted, Prime Minister Netanyahu, which is you have decimation of forces. You set these guys back five to 10 years. There's a quagmire that could potentially go on to your point where he stays in power. And so Bibi Netanyahu has secured the objectives that he wanted. But I think if I was in the Situation Room with Donald Trump, my question to him would be, define winning. Take a deep breath. Give me two or three sentences on what winning means to you. And I don't think the President actually knows the answer to that.
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B
No, I don't think he can do that.
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A
He's all over the place. Okay. Mark Warner said, you know, we've seen the goals for the operation change four or five times now. Okay, that's Democrat, senior Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee. Okay. Hegseth says that he's ending a 47 year war. You know, and General Kaine has said, hey, if we do, if we do xyz, the following can happen, which is the closure of the straight Hormuz and Hegseth and Trump said, hey, no, that doesn't fit the Fox News script of how this is going to go down. So we're going to force this anyway. Okay? And so he doesn't have any stated objectives. Right. This is the problem. And he's dangerous in a situation like this because I'm going to lambaste our allies and I'm going to excoriate them and threaten to take over land that is in the territorial domain of one of our allies. And I'm going to do that in January and then I'm going to launch a war in the Middle east unilaterally in late February. Then I'm gonna go to our allies and say, hey, what are you guys doing? Come on over here. I need your help over here. And I just want to thank European leadership because if I were advising European leaders, I'm an American, I want our troops to win. I want the President to get out of this. Obviously I'm an American and I'm a patriot, but I also don't want a global war caddy. And so as someone who, if someone asked me for advice, I said, guys, you cannot get involved with this. You do not want this to lead to World War 3. You cannot get involved with this. The Chinese have showed levels of restraint. The Russians are doing what the Russians are doing, which is sticking it up. You know, watch Trump's yin yang. We know that. Okay? But to me, I am very proud of the Europeans. Why are you laughing? I mean, you don't use the word
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B
yin yang in your family.
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A
I mean, it's better than using the bad word. I don't use bad words on this podcast. Katty K. Ok. Katti K. Uses bad words.
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B
I have heard you very many times using bad words. That sounds like, you know, your sons, Nick and James would say up the yin yang. That's like a 10 year old says that. But anyway.
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A
Yes. All right, well, I'm just saying the Russians are doing that to Trump and he is afraid of them. I don't know why. Okay, but here's the last thing. Caddy. I have a very high expectation that this escalates and people who are running money out there or allocating capital, you have to assume this is escalating and you have to assume he's putting ground troops down on the ground. And I think this is going to be underappreciated by many how bad this is going to be, because the Iranians are going to make a statement caddy. And you can agree or disagree, but I think the Iranians understand Trump better than he understands the Iranians or anybody on his staff understands the Iranians. And I think they're waiting for those troops, and it's gotta be ugly.
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B
I think you're right. And I think this does escalate, because I think the window for de escalation has shut, as we just said. I keep thinking back to the series that we're doing for our founding members on Trump and his origins and really looking at his psychology, because everything we are seeing play out today has been there forever. This is about who Trump is. This is about a guy, as we have already said on the program, who lies. He lied about Kristi Noem and what she knew. He lied about Nikki Haley. He is lying today in the same way about the fact that the Americans didn't know that the Israelis were going to strike the gas fields. He has a godlike belief in his own ability to get things right. He is the only one who could do this. Past presidents have been weak, and he is the only one who could do this. He refuses to admit mistakes or weakness. So when his advisers came to him and said they might close the Straits of Hormuz, it's almost like it's personal. They are not going to do that to Donald J. Trump, because I am stronger than they are, the American military is stronger than they are, and we're going to have victory. Even though you people in the intelligence community are telling me that this is what is going to happen, I know better. I mean, it's a real case of I know better. He went into this thinking, I know better. I can do this. I don't make mistakes. And then when something goes wrong, he just changes the narrative. And I think he is facing a real crunch right now, because things are going wrong in exactly the way he hates. They're going wrong in the markets, they're going wrong in the oil prices, they're going wrong in inflation. All of the indicators that actually he does care about are moving in the wrong direction for him. All of the polling is moving in the wrong direction for him. And however much Stephen Miller goes on Fox News and says President Trump has calculated through every permutation and every degree of strategy, increasingly nobody believes that. And I think that's a real problem for him. And as you say, the Iranians have far more leverage. It doesn't take them much to keep the Straits of Hormuz shut for quite a lot longer. This war could be the undoing of Donald Trump. And I think he realizes that and people around him realize that. And it's causing a huge amount of disquiet here in Washington right now, as well as on the global markets, obviously.
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A
So I want to analyze this for
- [19:51]
B
people and I don't want to be overly, you know, overly dramatic about this, but I think this is a time his legacy.
- [19:58]
A
No, there's a way out of this. They could go back to Oman. What we do know about wars is that wars do end. You know, some last 30 years, but wars do end. And so there is a way out of this. The question is for Donald Trump and his hyper masculinity and his over launched overbite of bravado, is he going to be able to handle that? And the short answer is he's got nobody around him that's coaching him in that direction. Okay, so that's, that's the danger.
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B
He says, I'll know it in my bones when this war is over.
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A
Yeah, great.
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B
Which I hope that's very reassuring.
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A
He knows it. He alone can solve this. He can do whatever he wants.
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B
But can I ask you something about that quickly? And then I also want to talk about US and Israel, because you mentioned how this is what Bibi wanted. I think this is terrible for America's relationship with Israel going forward. And there is dramatic polling on that. I want to talk about that in a second, but quickly before we get there. I wanted to ask you. Yes, he can go back to Oman and basically be at the status quo ante before all of this happened. But can he prevent a medium term energy shock from hitting the world economy and the American economy, or is that already going to happen? Because this takes a while to reintroduce. Once you've blown up these facilities, it takes a while to get back online.
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A
As you and I are speaking, we are already in an energy shock and disruption. Oil's at 116. That's up from $60 a barrel.
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B
And how long does it last?
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A
Well, remember, you know, you've got nowhere to store this stuff. So when these guys are shutting down production, they're shutting down production. They have no where to store it. So it's three, six, possibly 10 weeks to restore full production capabilities. Okay. When you're hitting the gas fields in Oman, because the gas fields in Iran are hit, remember, they share that offshore gas field. They've been Very successful at sharing that liquid natural gas field for 40 plus years. It's always been a diplomatic bridge between the Arabs on the Arabian Peninsula and the Persians across the Gulf. That's the diplomatic bridge. And what's happening now is they're hitting that gas field which is blowing up that bridge. The Omanis said all military personnel, all diplomatic personnel from Iran, you have 48 hours to leave. After those things were shit. So when your diplomats are leaving, it's very, very bad. That is not de escalation. That is escalation. But again, I want to go to where the situation room is. I want to put people right in the room and I want to talk about what should be being said and what is actually being said based on my knowledge, Gatti, of talking to people. So one, we're going to go and put the troops in. Okay, what are they going to do, guys? Okay, well, here's what they're going to do. They're going to do coast control, coastal control, for the straight of horror news. They're going to be looking for nuclear weapons. They're going to take out high value targets like senior IRGC leadership. We're going to do short duration raids. Helicopter insurgents, think bin Laden style raids. This is how they're talking to Trump in the room.
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B
That is terrifying if that is what he's saying. Because just taking out that nuclear material is a massive and very dangerous operation. You've got to have an airfield, you've got to secure the airfield. You've got to have flights going in and out. You've got to dig through however many hundreds of meters it is of rubble to get to a commodity that is incredibly fragile and febrile.
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A
I mean, it's just Trump is seeing Zero Dark Thirty and he's seeing Jessica Chastain and James Galdolfini in the movie. That's what he's seeing. Okay, guys, I wish this wasn't the truth, but we got to just tell people, right?
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B
He's seeing the Osama raid, okay?
- [24:01]
A
So the other thing that's happening is that is a commitment trap, okay? And the minute you go to do that, every step that you're doing is going to cement the escalation. Okay? So now you have troops hitting the ground. His team is telling him that's going to end the deadlock. But in my opinion, sir, Mr. President, that's going to cement the deadlock and that's going to put American lives in harm's way as the collateral of that deadlock. But I think it's very important people to know. And I'm going to give it more than 50%, Caddy, more than 50% that we're going to have troops on the ground in the next two weeks unless there's some type of diplomatic solution that I don't see right now. And maybe you do see it. But again, Trump is all over the place, Caddy, by the way, their capabilities are completely destroyed. Their navy's destroyed, their air force is destroyed. But then why are you sending out tweets about bombs going off and missile strikes in gas fields if everything's destroyed?
- [25:10]
B
Well, because we don't believe him because he said last June I've just obliterated Iran's nuclear capacity. Clearly that is not the case or else he wouldn't be saying today we need to make sure that they can never have a nuclear weapon. So we know that what he says is not the reality. He has already shown us that. And I agree with you. I think at the moment, because of who he is and because of the nature of the American war machine and it being so powerful, escalation looks more of a possibility than de escalation. Can I just say quickly one thing about us and Israel, because I actually think this war is a turning point as well in America's future relationship with Israel. Bibi Netanyahu may feel that he is getting what he wants because that suits Bibi Netanyahu. But if you look at there's a recent poll out this week that was stunning in America's attitude, Americans attitudes towards Israel. So in 2013, 45% of Americans sympathized more with Israel. 13% sympathized more with the Palestinians. In a poll by NBC news this week, 40% of Americans sympathized more with Israel. 39% of Americans sympathized more with the Palestinians. We've gone from 13% to 39% in 13 years. Now, some of that has been Gaza and the bombing in Gaza. But this is going to take it in a new direction. 50% of independents now see Israel negatively. 60% of Democrats see Israel negatively. We're seeing it play out in American politics. We're seeing the pro Israel lobby group AIPAC having to put huge amounts of money, almost $20 million they put into primaries in Democratic races in the state of Illinois just this week to try and get candidates who are more Israel friendly or at least not Israel skeptics. But you are now ushering in a generation of Americans who are not going to see Israel as America's ally. And when those younger Americans and you're seeing it amongst independents and you're seeing it amongst Democrats. Once those people take power, Israel needs to be very worried. I mean, if I was Bibi Netanyahu and I was concerned about the future of my country's security, I would be more worried about what's happening in America right now in terms of perceptions of Israel than I would be about trying to make sure that I have some forever war with Iran.
- [27:35]
A
Look, it makes me sad because been to Israel many times, obviously I'm a philo Semite. I hate the scourge of anti Semitism. I think you can criticize the Israeli government, however, for some actions that they're taking without being deemed an anti Semite. That's just my view. Sometimes I notice if you do say something, something negative about the Israeli government, people say, oh, you're an anti Semite. You know, I'm not an anti Semite. I bet there are more bar mitzvahs than christenings. I grew up on Long island, okay, so I'm not an anti Semite. But I would would say, of course Netanyahu would never listen to a guy like me. But I would say, number one, aipac, which is an American organization, not a foreign organization, These are American citizens that are supporting Israel through political donations. AIPAC is losing the Democratic Party.
- [28:26]
B
They are hiding their donations to candidates by saying it's not AIPAC giving money. It's groups like Affordable Chicago Now, Elect Chicago Women United Democracy Project. They're not putting Israel or the pro or AIPAC anywhere in the names of the groups. They're having to hide the money that they're using to support these more pro Israel candidates.
- [28:49]
A
That's a really important point, right, that I, I can know. I mean, that's not something that would have happened in the 80s, 90s, 2000,
- [28:57]
B
wouldn't have happened 13 years ago.
- [28:59]
A
Okay? So, you know, the Americans think this is a war of choice. The Israelis think this is a war of necessity. And I think that's another point of divergence of what's going on. But again, I know we're going to switch topics here momentarily, but I'll just say this to people, Mr. President, what are the objectives? Define winning. Because what you're doing right now is you are creeping the escalation. And if you put those ground troops in, that is a commitment trap, okay? And when the Iranians tell you, and this is something I know about Trump, when the Iranians say, and they said it this week, you put those ground troops in, it's going to be just Like Vietnam for you guys. How does Donald Trump react to a sentence like that? Katty?
- [29:49]
B
He says, I know better. I can do it differently. I'm not like the others. I'm the president that can save us and I'll know it in my bones. Anthony. He'll know it in his bones so we can all be rich.
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A
That would encourage him to put the ground troops in.
- [30:02]
B
Exactly. And his bones smell weakness and his bones are terrified of anything that would make him look weak. And that's why he won't de escalate at this point. That is why he's gonna be pushed into escalation, because he doesn't wanna look weak.
- [30:18]
A
I think it is a disgrace and I wanna be on the record saying this. I think it is a disgrace of the Article 1 Men and women who sit in the Congress that have allowed this thing to go in this direction without any type of organized intervention or any type of getting Rubio or Hegseth or General Kane in the room and saying, wtf guys, what are the objectives and why are we doing this? And last point, Caddy said something that you guys need to have an explanation point put on. Caddy said that they said that Trump, all the other guys were cowards, but not you, big boy. You're the muscle man in the room. And Caddy said, oh, I like that. So now I'm going to strike them to show my differentiation from the cowards who have their portraits hung in the White House next to mine. And that's where we are in America right now, ladies and gents.
- [31:23]
B
We're going to take a break and come back and talk about the Save America act and the midterms. Because of course, this is all playing into that as well. This episode is brought to you by Nespresso introducing Vertuo up, the latest in a long line of innovation from Nespresso. It's innovation you can touch, sense and taste in every single cup. With a three second start, easy open lever and dedicated brew over ice button, it's even easier to enjoy your coffee your way. Sip for yourself. Shop Vertuo up except exclusively@nespresso.com LifeLock how can I help? The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.
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- [32:33]
B
Hello, and welcome back. Before we jump into our discussion on the Save America act, we wanted to let you know that members pre sale is now open for our live show at London's South Bank Center. Can't wait for that. Anthony.
- [32:47]
A
That's right. That's right, Caddy. You know, we're going to be teaming up with our British counterparts, Rory Stewart and Alistair Campbell live on stage.
- [32:56]
B
Who's going to have more makeup, them or us?
- [32:58]
A
I expect us to look better but them to have more makeup, Caddy. How about that? But we're going to be going live with the rest. Classified David McCloskey so we're going to be talking about Cold war coups to Trump's global ambitions and we're asking the following question, Caddy, is America still the world's policeman? So if you want to make sure you get a ticket, sign up now@therealestispoliticsus.com and we will mail you. We will give you an email with the exclusive presale link. For those of you who aren't members, we do love you too. Of course we'd like you to be members, but general sales go live on the 26th of March at 10am at SouthBankCenter. CO.
- [33:44]
B
We can't wait to see you there. We're looking forward to it. Okay, let's get back to the show and the politics of all of this because it's been a very interesting week in politics. On Tuesday, the Senate voted to begin debate on something called the Save America Act. This has become an obsession of Donald Trump's. He sees this as a way to make sure that there is no fraud in American elections. It all harks back to his belief that he actually knows is not the case, but continues to say publicly that the 2020 election was stolen and that there was massive fraud and that you had a huge number of people who were in the country illegally voting in American elections. And that is why he lost the 2020 election. It was nothing to do with the fact that the public was exhausted and wanted to vote for somebody else. So he has brought about enormous amount of pressure. He is putting incredible amount of pressure on Republicans in the Senate. It's already passed through the House. Now he wants the Republicans in the Senate to vote to pass this thing called the Save act, which has now become the Save America act, which would institute tough new citizenship and Photo ID requirements for people who are voting. This actually is something that a lot of other Western democracies have. When you vote, you have to produce ID to, to prove that you are who you say you are. Now, actually, there is an enormous amount of support in the public, in the polls for having voter id. People actually quite like that. But the way this bill is framed, it would actually mean that a lot of Americans who don't have the right kinds of id, who don't have access to their birth certificates, would have to get new birth certificates, who don't have passports, would have to get new, new passports. Millions of Americans don't have passports. And those IDs can be expensive and time consuming to procure. So you've got Democrats saying this isn't a voter ID bill, this is a voter suppression law. And this is an attempt by the President to make sure that certain people don't show up and vote. Low income people, people of color, particularly who, who don't have access to those documents or who don't want to pay. Sometimes it can cost you up to $100 or $200 to get a copy of your birth certificate or to get a passport. Those are people who would be disenfranchised because of this law. And you've even had people like Kristi Noem saying, we want kind of letting the cat out of the bag. We want the right kind of people voting. You've had Senator Mike Lee of Utah saying, we need more Republicans voting. And so that's why we need this act. It's not going to pass, Anthony. The President knows it's not going to pass because as Senator John Thune has said, we don't have the numbers to make this pass. But I think this is all about Trump wanting Republicans to make a show of this bill, to make a big noise and a stink and show that they're trying to pass this bill. And it's a performance thing rather than him actually believing that this bill is going to pass. And I think it's because he's so worried about the midterm elections, he knows that he's going to lose the House at the moment if it was held tomorrow, and if it was held tomorrow, very potentially he's going to lose the Senate. So he's going to try and do anything he can to be able to say afterwards, well, if we'd had the Save America act, you see, we wouldn't have lost.
- [37:04]
A
So, I mean, listen, this is also, I think it's important for people to know this. This is Part of the culture war. Right. And so let's talk about the Napoleonic culture.
- [37:13]
B
It's us against them.
- [37:14]
A
Exactly. And so, you know, there's been some comments that I wish the Democrats didn't say, just comments that, you know, the Republicans are picking up. These are comments about African Americans, you know, where Governor Hochul said, well, they don't turn on a computer. I don't know why she said that. And of course, it got taken out of context and Schumer suggesting certain things, but I want to give people outside the United States some context here. So we gave the African American community the right to vote after the Civil War. It was the 14th and 15th Amendments of the Constitution. And then when they went to vote, they said, what's your name? They said, my name is xyz. What's your address? Okay, that's your address. Okay, great. And then the kkk, the Ku Klux Klan, went to their house, took the father out of the house, hung them on the tree, set fire to the house. So there was 50 years, and some could say 100 years, where people could not vote because they were going to get killed if they voted. Okay, so we have to, we have to explain that to people, that there is a history of voter suppression and there's a history of punishing people if they show up the voting polls with a lack of anonymity. We have to explain that to people. And now the right will say, oh, well, that's B.S. now we're liberated. Woke country, just stroll in. But the truth of the matter is there are still elements of that racism in the country. And there's still elements where if you really want your freedom, you want to give people the anonymity because of the history. Okay, so that's the framing caddy. And I'll just say this, and I think it's important people to understand there is scant, and I repeat, there is scant voter fraud in this country.
- [39:03]
B
So this is all a bit of a strawman, effectively, because the President is saying we had such massive voter fraud that we need the Save America Act. I was told this week that actually the voter fraud, the number of people voting who should not be voting in the country who are people here who are not American citizens, is 0.0007%.
- [39:28]
A
You're making the case even better than I can make the case. But I just want to add a few things. Why 83% of the people are supporting it. So I need an ID for everything. So why wouldn't I need an ID for this? Right? It Makes common sense. It sounds innocuous, but you've got 2.6 million people that lack a government issued photo ID. Okay. And that is the people that they want to get rid of, because those are probably lower income people. And the president's making the bet that most of those lower income people would vote Democratic. And so this is a way for me to, or a way for him, I should say, to get rid of these people from the voter rolls. But it's a culture war thing. So, Katty, my question to you is Trump has said, hey, I am not signing any pieces of legislation until this act is resolved. So what do you think that means exactly?
- [40:22]
B
Well, it means no more executive orders. That's what he says. I mean, that's what he says. Now, I think he's also going to realize that this is not going to get passed. And Trump is quite capable of reversing himself on these issues, but he is wanting to make a push between now and the midterm elections. Because I've been told by somebody pretty close to the President that they are very worried about the midterm elections and that they see they have this window between now and November, but really between now and the next few months to push this act as hard as possible so that they can control the outcome of the midterm elections. And that that's really what he's trying to do, that it's setting up a culture war. If it does pass, which it probably won't, they get more control of the midterm elections. If it doesn't pass, he defaults, as you say, to the MAGA view of the world, which is that it's us against them. It's us against the people who are here illegally. It's us against the Democrats, it's us against the people who are trying to steal the election from Donald Trump. It's us against the people who hate Donald Trump. And so you, you stoke all of that sentiment, which kind of helped him get, he thinks, elected in 2024. So I think that's what it means. But what it also means is that you have nothing happening in Congress and you have nothing happening, I guess, in the country. If he's really not going to pass any other pieces of legislation, but there's no big pieces of legislation he's going to pass anyway because there's such divisions in Congress, it's not going to happen. He has no ability to pass things at the moment.
- [41:57]
A
Yeah, so. So all of that is true. This would be a step towards federalizing our elections.
- [42:04]
B
Yes.
- [42:05]
A
And I think it's an unnecessary federal takeover of the elections. And I would argue caddy all day long that this is best administered by the state and local governments. And by the way, if you get a strong man or strong woman, but generally a strong man and an autocrat in place, it's hard for them to control the elections. Like Trump is frustrated that he would like to skew the elections, cuz he's a lowlife and so, but he can't do it because it's so broadly decentralized. So I would like to keep that decentralization in place. So I'm offering my opinion alongside of our analysis.
- [42:45]
B
And it's interesting because I've had conservatives say to me, and actually you see conservatives in the Senate, which is why John Thune doesn't have the votes for this, who have said to me exactly what you've just said, that they actually quite like the idea of states asking for voter IDs. That's not that controversial. But they hate the idea of the federal government taking over the election process because as I've one conservative said to me, look what happens when AOC becomes president and we've just handed the election process to somebody who's on the far left of the political spectrum that would come back to bite conservative in the face. And they especially at a time, I think, when you've got the firewalls broken down. Because actually, who would run these elections? It would be the Department of Justice who would run the elections. Well, at the moment, the Department of Justice, as you said, is the Trump family law firm. So effectively it means Donald Trump runs the election. So when you really have the walls breaking down between the DOJ and the White House, federalizing the elections and giving control of the elections to the Department of Justice becomes even more precarious in terms of protecting a real free and fair vote. And anyway, as all of these Republicans know, Republicans aren't going to be in control forever. They know that. I mean, they're looking at the prospect now, right? Anthony, what is it? There's just a new poll, a new YouGov poll come out suggesting that Donald Trump's disapproval rating is 60%. They know that the midterms are looking chronically bad for them. I mean, at the moment they're looking at the prospect of the House being taken, of Donald Trump being impeached, of a fairly sympathetic Senate. And I've been told there are 10 Republican senators at least who would vote to convict Donald Trump in an impeachment trial in the Senate. They hate him so much and what he has made them do. They hated Greenland, they hated the tariffs, they hate this war. That the White House is aware of the fact that, that if it came to an impeachment, Donald Trump could lose and he could lose in the Senate as well, even if the Republicans keep control of it, potentially that there are enough Republicans who really hate him that he would face a very unfriendly Senate if it came to a prosecution. And I think that's what this is about.
- [45:02]
A
Katty, before we go, get inside the melon of the Orange man, okay? I mean, it's probably, it's probably orange, not gray matter. Get inside the orange matter and tell
- [45:14]
B
me what you usually have this lovely job. You're, now you're handing over the kind of please, the pick and chisel and the torch. You're handing it over to me than me.
- [45:22]
A
You're more objective than me. I have been biased by smelling the guy, okay? You probably have smelled him less than me. So be, be objective here. Get inside his head and tell me he's got the lowest approval ratings now through, I mean, I mean, come on, it's unbelievable. Through Herbert hoover, I mean, 100 year low net approval ratings. So go ahead. What's he doing? Talk to me.
- [45:49]
B
So he's impatient. He's frustrated. He wants this SAVE act passed. He's also getting in his own way because the easiest way to make sure the Republicans win the Senate and he avoids the prospect of a trial is to endorse John Cornyn. But he's mad at John Cornyn because John Cornyn said that the 2020 election was not stolen. So he's still mad at John Cornyn. So he won't endorse him, which means that actually the Republicans might well lose the Senate. So he is getting in his own way. He could build a coalition for the SAVE Act. He could have built a coalition for Iran. He could have been patient in the process of, of attacks on Iran. But he's so impatient that he risks damaging his own legacy. And he, I think that's what he is. He's, he's bubbling up with impatience right now. There's a lot of, I think, heat in that brain. I'm going to get out of the brain because it's, it's hot and, you know, frustrated and angry in there right now. But there's a lot of room in there coming out.
- [47:00]
A
I mean, there's a lot of room, room. I mean, you know, it's spacious in there. You know, you're not cramped. You know, there's not a lot going on. All right, so. But Caddy, there is one thing. When you look inside the brain, as we did in episode four of our Trump special for the founding members, there is one thing, okay, he abides by self serving. So when you're walking around in the orange matter, all you're seeing are blinking lights. How is this going to serve me? How is this going to enrich me? How is this going to make me look? And I just would encourage people to tune into episode four of our founding member special on Trump because everything is there. It is like your Trump decoder ring to understand where he's going, what he's thinking, how he has been so successful at fighting the culture war, but also how he's in trouble here and how he overplayed his hand as it relates to this Iranian war.
- [48:03]
B
Do sign up@therealStispoliticsUS.com to become a founding member. You can get this week's episode, but you can go back as well and listen to the whole series. We had fun making it and I have to say, I'm so glad we did it right now because I think it gives all of us, as you said, Anthony, a way to understand what Donald Trump is going through now and what he is thinking right now. Because in some ways he hasn't changed, right. Since he was a young buck in New York in the 1980s. We hope you enjoyed listening to the show. We will be back, of course, next week with more on all the craziness that is happening in this town.
- [48:39]
A
See you guys next week.