174. Trump’s Iran Deadline: Will They Call His Bluff?

Summary

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The Rest Is Politics: US – Episode 174

“Trump’s Iran Deadline: Will They Call His Bluff?”
Date: April 6, 2026
Hosts: Anthony Scaramucci (“The Mooch”) & Katty Kay
Key Guest/Role Play Participant: Pete Hegseth

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Overview

This episode dives deep into the rapidly evolving US-Iran crisis, focusing on President Donald Trump’s dramatic Easter Sunday ultimatum to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and the global and domestic fallout from his strategy. Scaramucci and Kay analyze Trump’s motives, the potential for escalation or restraint, and the legal and diplomatic implications of military action, while also breaking down the recent daring American airman rescue. Throughout, their conversation blends sharp cynicism with insider analysis, role play, and dark humor typical of “The Rest Is Politics: US”.

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Main Discussion & Key Points

1. Trump’s Easter Ultimatum and Its Immediate Fallout

Timestamps: 00:08–02:36, 02:56–05:42

• Trump posted a profanity-laden ultimatum on Truth Social demanding Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, timed prominently on Easter Sunday.
• The timing, more than the content, shocked even some Trump supporters.
  • “The reaction that I’ve heard has been less about the actual tweet...but the timing of it, putting it out on Easter Sunday as people are getting ready to go to church, I think has been shocking even to Trump supporters around the country.” — Anthony Scaramucci (00:43)
• They recall previous White House profanity scandals, noting that current rhetoric far exceeds past “norm breaches”.

2. Is This ‘4D Chess’ or Dangerous Bluffing?

Timestamps: 02:56–05:42

• Debate over whether Trump’s unpredictability is tactical genius or recklessness.
• Katty Kay counters the right-wing narrative that such moves are “19D chess” leading to peace, pointing instead to fractured alliances.
  • “If he’s playing 14D chess, why are the Gulf allies running around not fully on board?... Why is MBS hedging?” — Katty Kay (04:24)
• U.S. “committee of one” approach unsettles allies; public threats of war crimes are unprecedented in recent Western history.

3. War Crimes, Immunity, and America’s Global Standing

Timestamps: 05:42–11:26

• Trump’s public threat to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime.
• Legal context: U.S. and Iran are not ICC members; U.S. vetoes on Security Council; precedent of immunity for official acts.
  • “If he commits a war crime, what would happen to him specifically? Nothing.” — Katty Kay (08:26)
  • “Anybody that thinks anything’s gonna happen to Donald Trump if he commits a war crime, that’s not gonna happen. But...the end of US brand and US prestige around the world.” — Katty Kay (08:49)
• Core concern is catastrophic loss of U.S. credibility and fractured alliances, notably with the UK and Gulf States.

4. Decision Matrix: Trump’s Real Options

Timestamps: 11:26–13:27

• Trump boxed himself in: multiple deadlines have passed, military buildup continues, yet no clear exit strategy.
  • “Once you put the American military in this number in this position, it starts...to take on a life of its own.” — Anthony Scaramucci (12:02)
• Possibilities:
  • Full escalation (airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure),
  • Ground invasions (islands, missile sites),
  • Negotiation (though U.S. proposals so far have been unserious; Iran wants security guarantees and reparations).

5. Role Play: Inside the White House

Timestamps: 13:27–19:05

• Hosts and Pete Hegseth act out a mock White House Situation Room discussion to satirize decision-making dysfunction.
  • “Every missed deadline weakens deterrence and strengthens the Iranian hand in negotiations.” — Katty Kay as advisor (14:47)
  • “We should bomb the living shit out of them. And I think we should commit war crimes everywhere because I changed the name of the Pentagon to the Department of War.” — Katty Kay, parodying hawkish advice (15:41)
  • Goldman Sachs’ oil shock report weighs heavily on Trump’s mind, with potential midterm losses and economic chaos pushing against escalation.

6. Paths Forward: Diplomacy, Face-saving, and Regional Players

Timestamps: 19:05–24:10

• Discussion on possible off-ramps:
  • Short, limited strikes, then claim victory and pivot to diplomacy.
  • Use intermediaries (Oman, Qatar, MBS/Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey).
  • Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases to blunt oil shock.
  • Quietly signaling reparations/security guarantees to Iran.
  • “He should declare victory and pivot...And then after that bombing mission’s over, he says, you know, we’ve accomplished more than Obama and Biden ever could. And so we’re now going to shift to diplomacy and claim a position of strength.” — Katty Kay (22:25)
• Scaramucci: Trump may resort to minimal strikes, but ultimate solution must be diplomatic—not military.

7. The Limits of Deterrence and the Long-Term Dilemma

Timestamps: 24:10–27:42

• Trump wants a political “win” but risks a failed state or regional war.
• Even if the immediate crisis is resolved, the risk is Iran rebuilds, “the regime remains”, and the U.S. is left with a worse landscape.

8. Smart Contrarian Tactics and the Humanitarian Play

Timestamps: 27:42–28:55

• Suggestion that the most surprising (and strategically sound) move would be a humanitarian carveout to undermine the regime’s anti-America narrative.
  • “You gotta open up a humanitarian channel here and announce a carve out for medicine...It sounds soft, but it’s strategically sharp.” — Anthony Scaramucci (27:42)
• But Trump unlikely to listen, surrounded by risk-averse advisers unwilling to propose such contrarian ideas.

9. The US Airman Rescue: Daring Operation & Information War

Timestamps: 29:06–40:03

• Daring rescue of downed airman in Iran galvanized U.S. military esprit de corps; “no man left behind” ethic.
• Scaramucci walks through the operation: pilot’s survival, CIA misdirecting Iranian search, rescue under imminent threat.
  • “The CIA...put out a message that they’ve already got him...It does seem like this CIA effort did manage to get the Iranians looking in multiple directions.” — Katty Kay (31:50)
• Both sides now claim propaganda “victory”—Iranian A.I.-boosted content and Lego videos, U.S. internal narrative.

10. Broader Reflections: Propaganda, Public Perception, and the Real Cost

Timestamps: 38:43–40:36

• Underestimated Iranian sophistication in narrative/propaganda.
  • “Their use of AI and rap to put out these political propaganda films is worth watching because it reminds us how sophisticated the country is that we are dealing with.” — Katty Kay (38:43)
• Irony: Iran offered $60,000 bounty, U.S. spent $2 billion on extraction—emphasizing cost and commitment to personnel.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If he commits a war crime, what would happen to him specifically? Nothing...But what is gonna happen is the end of US brand and US prestige around the world.” — Katty Kay (08:26)
• “He can’t bomb his way to getting that uranium back and he can’t bomb his way to getting the strait open at the moment.” — Anthony Scaramucci (21:16)
• “Declare victory and pivot. Maybe the deadline comes, the Iranians do nothing. He drops a few bombs that are not war crime bombs. And then... says, you know, we’ve accomplished more than Obama and Biden ever could.” — Katty Kay (22:25)
• “Karim Sadjadpour writes...Trump is measuring what he’s destroyed, but history is going to measure what he built.” — Katty Kay recounting analysis (25:38)
• “There are kernels of sanity in the guy’s brain still.” — Anthony Scaramucci on Trump (20:36)
• “Iran offered US$60,000. The US spent something like $2 billion to extract this officer...I am actually very proud of that...spend $3 billion if you have to.” — Anthony Scaramucci (38:43)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:08 — Trump’s Easter tweet: context and initial reactions
• 04:24 — Allies’ skepticism and “one-man committee” critique
• 08:26 — War crimes & global consequences
• 12:02 — Military force “takes on a life of its own”
• 13:27–19:05 — Situation Room role play; parodying White House dysfunction
• 22:25 — Kay’s 5-point plan: declaring victory and pivoting to diplomacy
• 27:42 — Humanitarian strategy suggestion
• 29:06–36:07 — Ace Airman rescue: details and significance
• 38:43 — Propaganda, perception, and immense cost of the rescue
• 40:03 — The “no man left behind” ethic and closing reflections

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Style & Tone

• Direct, irreverent, and heavily laced with inside-the-Beltway humor.
• Hosts offer both personal anecdotes and sharp policy critique.
• Satirical elements via role play and mocking of White House “logic”.

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Summary in a Nutshell

The episode captures the confusion, brinkmanship, and global stakes of the Trump-Iran standoff, pulling back the curtain on inner sanctum deliberations, the role of personality in geopolitics, and the enduring importance of military morale—even amidst chaos. While the hosts doubt Trump’s rationality, they insist some form of diplomatic off-ramp remains likely, less out of principle than self-preservation and pressure from key institutional players. The closing segment highlights America’s military heroics amid a geopolitical communications war, and the risk that, win or lose, the White House’s current approach could leave the world more unstable than before.

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Transcript

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. Open the straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah. President Donald J. Trump. Happy Easter, Anthony.

[Pete Hegseth]

Okay, Happy Easter.

[Katty Kay]

So you're in Virginia.

[Pete Hegseth]

You're going to Easter mass. You're in a MAGA area.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Maga. Ish. There's definitely some Trump supporters.

[Katty Kay]

They're not upset with the tweet, they're just upset with the timing. Right.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

With the language on Easter Sunday. So, yeah, I spent the weekend out in Virginia. I sat in church listening to a sermon all about love and sacrifice and resurrection on this holiest of Christian days. And in the back of my mind was Donald Trump with a profanity laden tweet that he put out on Sunday morning with this new deadline. And it's interesting because the reaction that I've heard has been less about the actual tweet, because I think people realize that Donald Trump sends out posts like this now and changes his mind, and now they have to open the straight again. But the timing of it, putting it out on Easter Sunday as people are getting ready to go to church, I think has been shocking even to Trump supporters around the country. Can I say one little story quickly before we get to your reaction?

[Katty Kay]

Yeah, go ahead.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Way back in 2017, in the very beginning of the Trump administration, I was talking to my mom on the phone one day about, I'd say about 10 days into the Trump administration, and a certain director of communication has used a profanity to a journalist. And I remember saying to my mom, can you believe what this director of communications has said? And this journalist has reported it, and it was a profanity and my mom being very shocked. And that was you. And that was mild by comparison with what we're in now. A different planet of expletives.

[Katty Kay]

I still think it was, like, one of the funniest things that's ever been said from the White House.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Well, you shocked Shirley Kay, I can

[Katty Kay]

tell you, and I know your mom is now passed Katty, which I'm sorry about, but I will say to you that I was right about Steve Bannon, and I will maintain that for the rest of my life. Okay, that asshole.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

This is. The rest is politics, us. I'm Kati Kaye with Anthony Scaramucci. Today, we are going to be talking all about Iran, the president's options now that he's put this truth social out and the rescue of the airmen and what that means. But really Looking at what we, I think what we can see in the next few days and what might be

[Katty Kay]

coming up, let's talk about this because our buddies at Fox News, like Sean hannity, this is 19D chess, and this is all about peace. And you people set your hair on fire. And Trump is the man.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

He's been on the, he's done it deliberately. It's all part of it.

[Katty Kay]

Yes, he's been on the world stage for 11 years and all of you are predictably running around with your hair on fire. But you did ask me. My reaction, and my reaction is that, you know, he should be removed from office. That's my reaction. My reaction is that any normal group of people, the British government, if Keir Starmer was talking like that, his own party would seek removal from office. If Macron talked like that, they'd look around and say, okay, there's mental illness afoot. You have to remove the person from office. And so in the United States, because the way the thing is set up, there were a lot of customs as opposed to delineated rules. And so now he's broken most of the norms and broken most of the customs. But generally what he's doing and what he's saying I think is just ridiculous. And for those people out there that have said that he's playing 4D or 19G chess, I would just tell those people that confusing, unpredictable nonsense coming out of the Trump mouth, which is basically the entire strategy for the American war plans, because our adversaries are looking around saying, oh, wow, the Americans have got themselves down to a committee of one where one person is now making these decisions. And I'll just point out, if he's playing 14d chess, why are the golf allies running around not fully on board with them? Why is MBS hedging? Why are they maintaining back channels, which you and I both know about, to Tehran? And they're publicly distancing themselves from the most aggressive US Postures. Okay, and why are they taking the straight of Hormuz situation very seriously? And why is President Macron calling Iran and getting some of his ships moved through the strait? But I want to push it back to you for a second and talk about war crimes in your lifetime, which is almost identical to my lifetime. Have you ever heard a leader of a big country publicly talking about war crimes and threatening war crimes? And then, Kadi, what are the implications of if the United States actually executes on these war crimes? So we talked about the country heading in rogue state direction last week. So go ahead, tell me on the

[Anthony Scaramucci]

implications of that post that he just put out just to situate us a little bit. My understanding this Monday morning as we're recording this at 9:30, is that the president probably doesn't want to escalate, but he doesn't know how not to. And so he probably will. And what he's putting out in this post, which is not just kind of full of profanity and extraordinary in itself, is, you're right. I mean, what he's proposing is the decimation of Iranian infrastructure, civilian infrastructure, which would be considered a war crime under most legal definitions. Now there's some wiggle room and the Republicans are trying to come up with some kind of wiggle room that actually this would be civilian infrastructure that was for moving nuclear material around the country, roads and bridges. And so therefore it would be legitimate. But then you could go after every road and every bridge in the country. Presumably. It's a very broad definition that they're trying to come up with. And I think that'll be another of the things that gets litigated if the Democrats win the midterm elections, if we take away just for a moment because we'll get there, the possibility of Iranian retaliation. And I think they still do have the capacity to retaliate. If Trump does do this escalate in the way he's talking about on Tuesday night, then you're still talking about him destroying a country. And what does that mean? Yes, war crimes potentially, but it also means a country that could fall into civil war, a country with no infrastructure and ability to support its people, a country from which you could have a mass refugee exodus, all of those things would have so many implications for other countries in the Middle east that this wouldn't be a containable situation. So if that is Donald Trump's plan, which is to destroy Iran, and in the process hoping that he can destroy the regime, which I'm told is unlikely to fall during a wartime anyway, he's still leaving the region and the rest of the world with a huge problem because a country of 90 million people that is basically a failed state, which is what this would be, has enormous knock on implications for other countries. So I don't know that this plan of his, which seems to be, if he's looking at two escalation issues today, one of which is ground troops and one of which is no ground troops. But going after the infrastructure, even going after the infrastructure, is something that's going to have big implications. And that's not even counting the possibility that the Iranians will retaliate against Gulf infrastructure, which we know that they have the capacity to do. When we sit here on this Monday morning, what do you think the President's options are for the next 48 hours?

[Katty Kay]

Well, he's not gonna do it. Okay. So I'm gonna talk a little bit hypothetically for a second about what would happen if he does it, which will then explain to everybody why he's not gonna do it. Okay, so number one, if he commits a war crime, what would happen to him specifically? Nothing. Okay, let's just talk about that. Very little. Practically speaking.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah, it's in the service of his office and he can pardon himself.

[Katty Kay]

Of course, it has to go through the icc and neither Iran or the US are a member of that. The UN Security Council could refer it. Right, but the US has the power to veto that. And then of course, we have the very famous Trump versus the United States where sitting presidents and former presidents enjoy absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts. Okay, so anybody that thinks anything's gonna happen to Donald Trump if he commits a war crime, that's not gonna happen. Okay? But what is gonna happen, and I think people really need to think about this, is the end of US brand and US prestige around the world.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

You think he cares about that?

[Katty Kay]

I don't think he cares about that. But I think the people around him and the donors and the tech firms that don't want their sites bombed in Dubai and sites bombed in the UAE

[Anthony Scaramucci]

or don't want the global economy tanked.

[Katty Kay]

Yeah, and I think they care about it. I don't think Trump cares about it.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

They were the ones, I'm told that stepped in to stop him from going into Greenland. So maybe it's going to be the tech bros that come forward now.

[Katty Kay]

But I just want to explain this to people that the Gulf state alliance will 100% fracture for sure. Because they'll be like, what the hell is this guy doing? This is like totally off of any type of realm of the rules based order in the uk. Okay. I think that this would be a disaster for UK US relations. And I would just say I would be shocked if the King Charles iii, who I have an enormous amount of respect for, for, would attend a visit to the United States after the commission of a war crime. I think this would totally disrupt the whole way the allies or our former allies worked with the United States. And then I would say, lastly, Katty, that the rules based order credibility would completely collapse. Okay. It would be totally and completely destabilizing and maybe, maybe he wants that cuz that's actually good for Russia. I don't know. But to me this is not going to happen. And I will stipulate that on this show because even though he's a nut and even though he's crippled everybody in the political system, the US corporate industrial base and to your point, the tech bros are going to be like, you can't do that and so you better not do that. Am I right or wrong in your opinion?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

No, I think, look, I think he's in a position, I really do believe he's in a position where he's saying I don't want to do this, I don't want to do this. But I'm also not going to put a serious proposal on the table that the Iranians will accept. So what's the alternative? There are two alternatives to what you're talking about. One is that he uses this massive tens of thousands of American troop force that is there mustering in the Middle east and the American military. I asked a military expert this weekend, can you think of a time where so many forces have been put into position and not used in American history?

[Katty Kay]

Great question by the way. And what did they say?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

He said he couldn't think of one. He'd actually have to go back and research whether there was one. This is somebody who knows his history and has been involved in these kind of negotiations. So once you put the American military in this number in this position, it starts, I'm told by people who understand this much better than I do at the Pentagon that it takes on a life of its own. So if he's not going to do the infrastructure component of this and he was wanting to escalate, then the alternatives are, are some kind of ground force escalation. And that could be either taking Carg island, taking the other islands, taking coastal areas where they're filing the missiles from, or raiding the uranium we think which is still Nisman Onantas or he negotiates. And that's what the Axios story that everybody should read this morning is that there is this more of a stepped up negotiations. But so far as we understand it, the Americans and the Iranians have not spoken directly. And the proposal that the Americans have put on the table I've been told is not serious, is not something that the Iranians could ever accept. The Iranians want security guarantees that they won't get bombed again and they want reparations so that they can claim victory. But at the moment the Americans are saying you lose everything and we win everything. If Donald Trump is unable in the next 48 hours to come up with a serious proposal for the Iranians, I. I don't see how he doesn't escalate in some form.

[Katty Kay]

Okay, so it's now time for the rest is politics us role play. Okay. So let me tell you what we're doing. Okay.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Okay. I'm going to stretch. Oh, ok.

[Pete Hegseth]

I am Pete Hegseth.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Oh, glad you got that role.

[Pete Hegseth]

Yeah. I'm Pete Heath. I want you. I got tattoos all over my body. I'm wearing a $4.99 suit.

[Katty Kay]

Okay.

[Pete Hegseth]

It's polyester and rayon.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

You got your American flag sunglasses.

[Katty Kay]

Yes. And I'm sauntering into the room.

[Pete Hegseth]

I'm alpha male warfighter.

[Katty Kay]

I just want to set the scene.

[Pete Hegseth]

You are the orange man.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Okay?

[Katty Kay]

Okay.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Okay.

[Pete Hegseth]

And I'm a Warhawk. And I come in and I say.

[Katty Kay]

I say, Mr. President, the deadline is 8pm April 6th. And I'm going to tell you, sir, with all due respect, we've missed three deadlines. We missed the March 21 and the March 26 deadlines. You keep moving the goalposts and you keep saying that the talks are going well.

[Pete Hegseth]

But Mr. P, we know we're not talking to anybody. Those two macays in your office that look like Iranian diplomats that you're talking to, they're not responding, Mr. President. They're not responding.

[Katty Kay]

And this is.

[Pete Hegseth]

Why are you laughing like that?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

This is like the Muppets. Okay, carry on. I like the puppet show. Okay.

[Katty Kay]

Okay.

[Pete Hegseth]

We got the puppets going. And I'm just saying, Mr. President, your

[Katty Kay]

credibility on this issue is eroding. Every missed deadline weakens deterrence and strengthens the Iranian hand in negotiations.

[Pete Hegseth]

And you say what?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Djt first of all, I'm thinking, Pete Hegseth, is this you that's putting forward such a coherent sentence? Okay, Mr. Secretary of War, what are my options?

[Pete Hegseth]

I'm a war fighter. Katty K. Remember that about me?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yes. I know this. I don't like the fact. March 22, March 26, March 27, April 4, April 5. I've always pushed back the deadline. 48 hours, five days, 10 days, 48 hours again. Tuesday. So I realize I don't like this. We can't give them any more time. They have to open the bleep straight. What are my military options, Mr. Secretary of War? Tell me.

[Katty Kay]

Well, I think we should bomb the living shit out of them. And I think we should commit war crimes everywhere because I changed the name of the Pentagon to the Department of War.

[Pete Hegseth]

And since War is in the sentence. I commit war crimes.

[Katty Kay]

I would like to commit war crimes on this country. And you say what, Mr. Secretary of War?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Have you seen the Goldman Sachs report that came out last night saying that we're gonna have an oil shock with rationing around the world and it's gonna last for a considerable time. And I have a midterm election in November. I don't like that idea. I need to get out of this quickly.

[Katty Kay]

Oh, come on, djt. We know you don't really give a shit about the, about the midterms. We know that.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I don't wanna lose the Senate. I could get thrown out of office even though I pardon myself on the way out. But it doesn't look great for my legacy.

[Pete Hegseth]

He's not gonna do it, Caddy.

[Katty Kay]

So then what happens? So he then says to Hegseth, I'm gonna push the ball down the road again because I'm not gonna do it. He's not gonna do it. Gatti. The calls are coming in from Peter Thiel saying, hey, bozo, don't do that.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

And why do you think Goldman Sachs is putting this report out on this evening? They're not putting it out just randomly the night before the deadline. They're putting it out because they want the President to wake up. So here's the question. Is, is he hoping that the Iranian regime falls quickly if he carries on like another two days of crazy bombing? Nobody thinks that's going to be the case. The Iranian regime can last longer than the global economy can at this rate if they carry on with this kind of action. So then you have what Barack Ravid in Axios is reporting, which is you have some kind of 45 day ceasefire, during which time you negotiate the Strait of Hormuz. But that means that the Strait of Hormuz may not be open for another 45 days and you negotiate the uranium issue. But even Axios is saying they think the chances of this are slim because the Iranians still want those two other conditions. They want reparations and they want to know that they won't be bombed again in six months time. You sound very sanguine, Anthony, this morning, that there is not going to be any kind of escalation. But I'm not sure about that. I think there's still a chance that there will be.

[Katty Kay]

But let me rephrase. I don't think we're bombing desalination plants or power plants, but we could be

[Anthony Scaramucci]

taking a few islands and claiming a win.

[Katty Kay]

I do think that he's put ground troops there. And I think we learned from one of our producers that 60 or so thousand troops may get deployed out of Europe. Okay, we've learned that as well. And so that means to me that they're going to use the ground troops. And so what are they going to do? Maybe they're going to try to take that area around the strait to see if they can clear out the Iranian militias in that area that could potentially attack tankers like the Kuwaiti tanker was attacked. Maybe they take Kharg island, which I

[Anthony Scaramucci]

said last week, or some of the other islands. But all of these come with risks. You're putting American troops closer to Iranian fire if you take the islands. My understanding is you don't even necessarily open the strait. And what you're going to have Americans firing on Chinese tankers that are trying to get through. All of these come with risks, Which I'm hoping, Mr. Secretary of War, that you have fully informed me of and I have fully listened to.

[Katty Kay]

Of course, neither one of them are listening to each other, cuz they talk over each other, which we both know. But go Back to the 45 day option. Trump needs a way out of this caddy. He's looking around now and he's saying, you remember that line about playing poker? If you don't know who the patsy is at the day ball, you're the patsy, he's the patsy. Caddy. He's looking. Let's talk about him saying that Zelensky had no cards. He's looking at his cards and he's going to play his cards and none of the cards look like great plays. And he's sitting there saying, okay, I got taken advantage of here. I overreacted. And rather than sticking with the February 27th and 28th negotiations, I went full bore with the Netanyahu strategy. And it turns out that I'm in a very complex thing. It turns out that the 2008, 9, 10 Donald Trump, the 2015 Donald Trump and the 2025 Charlie Kirk, who very famously, last year at this time, Charlie Kirk said, don't do it. They're gonna push you to do it. It's gonna be a disaster for us. It turns out those versions of Donald Trump and Charlie Kirk were actually right. And I know that Trump is nuts, and you know he's nuts. And you can't send out Easter tweets like that without knowing that he's not nuts. But there are kernels of sanity in the guy's brain still.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Well, there are kernels of self preservation.

[Katty Kay]

Self preservation. Okay, let's rephrase it.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

He doesn't want to go out in a kind of be totally trashed by this, and that's why he's in this dilemma. He doesn't want to escalate, but he doesn't know what the options are.

[Katty Kay]

So, Katty, tell us how he gets out of it.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

There's one piece of advice that I've heard which is that he needs to slow down and wait this out and buy him. First of all, as his advisors have said all along, stop putting out these damn ultimatums because you're setting a red line that makes it harder for you to row back from. He probably needs to carry on with the campaign as it is and try to get to a diplomatic solution. The only way you get around the uranium issue, the only way you get around the strait issue is through negotiation. He cannot bomb his way to getting that uranium back and he can't bomb his way to getting the strait open at the moment. So there is an enormous amount of mistrust on the Iranian side because they feel that, that they were in the midst of negotiations with Witkoff and Jared, who were either unable or unwilling to really do a serious deal and then the war started. So they need persuading to come to the table. The Americans need to put something serious. And he's got a 48 hour window that he's not even 36 hour window by the time this goes out that he's put on himself. And he's going to have to put some kind of, if he wants to get out of this without escalating, he has to put some kind of serious plan on the table. He has to go to the Pakistanis and it's possible that the Iranians would bite. Now, if he went to the Pakistanis and said, okay, here is a revised plan with some serious gifts, it's possible the Iranians might bite right now. So I think that's the only way out. Right. He can't bomb his way out of

[Katty Kay]

this one can't bomb his way out, but this is what Trump should do at this moment. Okay, I put five points together. Katty, you ready? Okay, point number one, he should declare victory and pivot. Maybe the deadline comes, the Iranians do nothing. He drops a few bombs that are not war crime bombs. And then after that bombing mission's over, he says, you know, we've accomplished more than Obama and Biden ever could. And so we're now going to shift to diplomacy and claim a position of strength. Number two, use Oman and Qatar as quiet intermediaries and just go in there and say that we're gonna use these guys to come up with a framework of not just a grand deal or just a mutual stand down, but how are we gonna get the Strait of Hormuz opened in an acceptable way? And then number three, which is the big one is mbs. I would use MBS because the Saudis, if you remember about three years ago,

[Anthony Scaramucci]

they did the deal with the Chinese,

[Katty Kay]

did a deal with the Chinese that the Chinese brokered with Iran. I would bring MBS back in here and I would co sponsor a Gulf War security framework conference or conversation. Okay. And then I would release spr, Strategic Petroleum Reserve barrels into the market. Okay. And I would say that we're going to do this to keep the prices lower for American families. And then I would single to Iran through intermediaries that we need to get the shipping corridor open. What is it that they need from us? And the answer is going to be reparations.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yep. And security guarantees.

[Katty Kay]

And so the President's going to say to his Saudi friends, you pay, you pay and I will figure out a way to get you paid back, but you got to pay. Okay. What do you think of all those?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Look, I think those are all very sensible. I'm not sure. I think could he bomb a couple of bridges, a couple more bridges maybe near Isfahan, you know, on the basis that that's where the uranium we think is. But it could have been moved, obviously. But that's where we think it was when we last knew where it was. You bomb those bridges and you call it a day, the Iranians at that point will declare victory. If America pulls out without the strait being open, they will say that this has been something that they have won. They held on longer than America and Donald Trump played chicken. I mean, that's how they'll frame it. Right? Does that really matter? Probably not. But how you get from that, him declaring victory to the strait being open, those are your other steps. Yeah. I think you go for any intermediaries you can. I would also add you go for the Pakistanis and the Turks in there as well. You try and get some kind of. Which is what the UAE is trying to do is you go to the United nations and you broaden control of the Strait of Hormuz for the future. Maybe that's what he'll do. Maybe he tomorrow will wake up or will be tomorrow evening and he'll say, okay, we're extending the deadline again, we've got what we wanted. Or he'll say, okay, After a day after that, we've got what we wanted and we're going to call it quits. But I think that Trump needs to then look at the state of the Iranian country that he's left behind. We don't know because we're not getting very many images. But I think there is an awful amount of devastation and renovation and repairs that need to be done in Iran. And I think it's worth everybody on this Monday reading what Karim Sajapour, who's the best analyst of Iran that I know of, is writing, which is that Trump is measuring what he's destroyed, but history is going to measure what he built. And if he doesn't build something where you leave behind an Iranian regime that is healthier for the rest of the world and safer for the rest of the world, then I'm not sure that he's built very much out of this. In fact, he's destroyed an awful lot. But what has he actually built? Because so long as the Iranian regime is there, it's still going to be a threat. They're not going to in six months time say, right, okay, we got those five points of yours. We're not going to carry on rebuilding our ballistic missiles and we're not going to rush for a nuclear weapon. The risk is that he gets through this short term, but he leaves behind a long term problem still, in fact, potentially, as the UAE knows very well, a bigger problem than it was before. Anyway, anything at the moment that Karim Sadjapur writes, it's worth you looking at. We'll put a link to that in our newsletter and we'll also link to that Goldman Sachs report on the oil shock that is about to hit the world.

[Katty Kay]

All of that makes sense. Katty. I guess the thing I would say if I were a Trump advisor, you have to pick things that are very contrarian and are outside of what other people would think that Donald Trump himself would do. Like I don't think anybody had on their bingo card, praise to Allah or whatever he said in his thing. Right. So he likes doing things that are not predictable. I would go to him and say, you got to open up a humanitarian channel here and announce a carve out for medicine, food, earthquake relief supplies, things like that. Frame it as it's our fight is with the regime, not the Persian people. It sounds soft, but it's strategically sharp. It undermines the regime's narrative that America wants to starve Iran.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

What do you rate the chances of his going for such a deal?

[Katty Kay]

A deal in what way?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Meaning the Points you laid out? Yeah, Yeah.

[Katty Kay]

I think it's unlikely. And again, the reason why I think it's unlikely is that he has no one talking to him in a way that he would adjust himself to. If HR McMaster said he's a reflexive contrarian, drop food, medical supplies and earthquake relief supplies or whatever it is that you would do, Red Cross, like, supplies into Iran, that is something that Trump would respond to. You see what I mean? I don't think anybody's out there doing that with them. I think they're all frozen because they don't want to lose their jobs. They don't want to be embarrassed by a mean tweet and all of the different things that Trump does to them. But. But I'm just saying to you, there's a. There's a path out of here. Okay. I mean, here's another idea, Katty. This is another idea that no one would say Trump would do. Engage Turkey.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah, engage Turkey and the Pakistanis.

[Katty Kay]

Erdogan has relationships with Tehran and Moscow. He desperately wants to be seen as a major geopolitical broker. Use him. Okay.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Right.

[Katty Kay]

He's vain enough to take the assignment. And the risk is that Erdan would be the freelancer that he typically is, but I would rather have him freelancing in a direction towards peace.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

There is a story going around Washington that there's a lot of money in Istanbul at the moment being used to try and lure defectors from the Iranian regime. But my understanding is they haven't managed to peel away anyone of significance. But. But the Turks are clearly, you know, focused on this. Okay, we're going to take a break and come back and talk about that extraordinary rescue, which really was an amazing achievement, perhaps one that Donald Trump stepped on with his Sunday Morning Post. But anyway, we're going to come back and talk about that. Welcome back to the Rest is politics, us. And now the good news half of this program. Anthony, that was all the stories coming out about the rescue. Everybody's got some of the great details. But this was amazing Boyzone adventure stuff. Put on your army commando special forces outfit for a second and tell us what you thought of that rescue operation and what it says about America's military ability to get this kind of thing right. Cause I think that's worth. It's worth mentioning amidst all of the strategic problems with this operation, this particular event, this particular rescue operation, I think does remind us what the American military does. Well.

[Katty Kay]

Well, let me say a couple things about military culture for a second that I think people will appreciate when that pilot went missing, the entire military, and I'm talking about everything, including Space Force, was like, how are we getting that pilot out of there? Yeah, okay. And if a cop is shot, a police officer shot here in New York, guess what happens? Katty, Every single police officer in the borough where that police officer was shot goes to the scene and they figure out how to capture the person. This is sort of the esprit de corps. This is sort of the culture. And so it doesn't matter the price, it doesn't matter anything other than how are we getting back our servicemen alive. Okay. And to me that is something I love about the American military. I love that about our culture. And the notion that people like Laura Ingraham are suggesting that left leaning people wanted the guy to die because it would hurt Donald Trump. Absurd is just the outrage machine of nonsensical behavior. There's not one person in this country that's rational that would have wanted that. We were all praying that they were able to extract him. But tell a little bit about the Daring Caddy, tell a little bit about what happened. Cause I thought that was a fascinating way they approached this. And there was also a CIA diversion which I thought was also fascinating.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

So what we understand is Obviously there were two pilots from this F15. One was rescued within seven hours by a US helicopter. The second pilot, because the plane was moving so fast, actually ended up far away. And they had to find him. He was a colonel and a weapons officer. He had just a pistol with him, but he also of course had his beacon. And all of these pilots are trained in, in what to do in these circumstances and basically in how to stay alive until you can be rescued. So he gets to this 7,000 foot ridge. It's a mountainous area of southwest Iran. He climbs up into a tiny little crack. You've got US drones and aircraft flying around the region. He comes out only to put his beacon on, his tracker beacon on. He's worried that the Iranians might also be able to pick up the tracker beacon. It doesn't seem like they did, but he comes out of this little crevice really in the mountain to put the tracker beacon on and then retreats back into the crevice. The CIA meanwhile, as the Iranians are looking for him and as the Americans are putting a huge amount of resources and planes into this. The CIA meanwhile, dispersed throughout Iran, which shows that they still have assets in Iran that are able to get messages out kind of through the Iranian public. They put out a message that they've already got him, that the Americans have already got him, and now they're trying to plan out how to exfiltrate him. Will it be by boat? Will it be by convoy somewhere? And so they send the Iranian forces apparently into a kind of. Now, look, all of this we're getting from the Pentagon and the White House. So you have to take some of the kind of, you know, a little bit of your critical thinking around this, but it seems that this CIA effort did manage to get the Iranians looking in multiple directions, and that kind of put them off the scent of the guy who's up in the mountain, whose name we don't know yet. And then there was. This was all being monitored from the Situation Room by President Trump. And the pilot managed to survive for two days. The hairy thing I understand is that the aircraft, the rescue aircraft landed fairly near the mountain and were on the ground for several hours while they went looking for this guy. And that was the most worrying moment. And they had light aircraft as well. They. They actually ended up bombing some aircraft that were left on the ground because they didn't want the Iranians to get the details or any of the tech from that aircraft. So given the caveat that we're getting this information from the Pentagon and from the White House, and they want to paint this as a glowing success as possible, it does seem like this was an extraordinary, I mean, an unbelievable rescue operation as the Iranians were closing in and with a lot of effort and time and money put in by the Pentagon. I'm just glad I wasn't that guy. I mean, that would have been. Can you imagine? And kudos to him for managing to stay alive for two days in enemy terrain.

[Katty Kay]

I think the whole story is amazing. It'll, you know, obviously be the makings of an amazing Hollywood movie.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah. Who's signing up to be the pilot? Who? Do you have tip for the pilot?

[Katty Kay]

I don't know. This is like a Mark Wahlberg sort of a movie, right? I think. I don't know, maybe it's Tom Cruise sort of movie.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Whoever is the younger Tom Cruise out there, whoever doesn't manage to become 007, who we still haven't had named yet, which I'm just a little annoyed about. But anyway, I still want to know who's going to be the next James Bond. Whoever is the runner up to James Bond should be the pilot in this one.

[Katty Kay]

All right, sounds like a deal. But here's the thing. I would say to you that I was blown away by these commandos. They scaled a 7,000 foot ridge. He's got the sprained ankle and he's talking to. He's got to also identify himself and he's got to prove that he is the guy, that the transponder isn't in the hands of Iranian militia, Iranian captors, right? And then they get booby trapped. Right? So this is another fascinating part of the story, but I'll just say three quick things. Number one, Iran's air defenses are not destroyed. Caddy, okay? They took down F15s and A10 Warthog, okay? We can say that the C130 went down for mechanical reasons, but two Black

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Hawk helicopters were also hit during the rescue mission.

[Katty Kay]

Two Black Hawk helicopters. And again, this is all verified by the Pentagon. So it's not the Iranians saying this. It just tells you that. Okay. Number two, the CIA deception story is the best part of the story. For me. That means that these guys are working in coordination with each other, which is something that you'd like to see. Of course, prior to 9 11, there was a lot less coordination in the American military and the American government as it related to different interagency communication. But whether we like this or not, both sides are claiming victory. Okay? And what I mean by that is that the Iranians are going to be putting out there that this is like The Carter failed 1980s hostage rescue attempt. And I'm not saying it is because it was successful, but they're going to be beaming those burnt planes and downed helicopters into the propaganda space of their own citizens.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

We should talk just quickly before we go about the communications war that is happening online between the two of us, because you and I have been sending forwards, back and forth to each other all of these videos that are being put out by an independent Iranian production company, obviously not totally independent, and also being amplified by the Iranian regime and by Russia Today and the Russia Today network and by the Chinese. But the communications ability. So you've got the CIA managing to get into the Iranian ecosystem within 48 hours. Misinformation about what's happened to this pilot, whether they're doing it through broadcast networks of some kind or whether they're doing it through people in the country. We don't know yet. Exactly. But then you've also got the Iranians who are putting out within, as I texted you, within an hour or two hours of the news that this pilot was still missing, they had already put out little videos, these little Lego figurine videos. It's worth everybody having a look at them of a pilot being captured and Mullers chasing after him. And the level of sophistication of the Iranian communications propaganda is extraordinary at the moment. Their use of AI and rap to put out these political propaganda films is worth watching because it reminds us how sophisticated the country is that we are dealing with. And I think that is something that this White House and maybe previous White Houses as well. But I think this White House underestimated the sophistication of the regime they were dealing with, the country they were dealing with.

[Katty Kay]

We both grew up in the west, where a lot of propaganda has been spewed that has effectively dehumanized Iran. Right. Particularly during the hostage crisis when we were both kids. And it's a way more complex, ancient civilization with a tremendous amount of smart people in it. And I think, obviously, the less we dehumanize people, the better. But I want you to think about this one last thing. Iran offered US$60,000. It wasn't dominated in Iranian currency. It was denominated in US dollars. Right. But the US spent something like $2 billion to extract this officer. I don't know. As an American, I am actually very proud of that. Okay. I'm not for this war, but I am for our troops. And if somebody's in harm's way and we're spending $2 billion to get the person out of harm's way, spend $3 billion if you have to, you know, And I think that's the message for me. And I appreciate the military not leaving anybody in a situation like that. But look at that ratio. It's a 33,000 to 1 ratio, Gatti. The 60,000 versus the 2 billion.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah. And Iranian forces got within 2 miles, I think. Exactly. It was 1.8 miles of the pilot's position. So they were getting close. They kind of started to know where he was, and they were getting close to finding him. I think the shadow of Vietnam hangs heavy over America. So many people who were downed and taken by the Viet Cong forces during the Vietnam War that ever since then, there has really been a huge push to make sure that no person is left behind. And this young colonel is now back home.

[Katty Kay]

I appreciate it. That's for sure. So stay with us this week. On Wednesday, we'll be answering your questions. Some of these questions are actually awesome. And we'll also be discussing whether or not King Charles should be visiting Trump this year. And. And Caddy, why has Hegseth fired so many army generals? And the last but not least, what about US Tourism? Way down. Gatti. So, anyway, to hear all of that You've got to go to the restlesspoliticsus.com Become a founding member. Which Gatti. We got a lot of founding members, so I'm very happy about that. And people walk up, please, if you see me on the street and you say, I'm a founding member, you're getting a hug. Okay. I just want you to know that that's.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

That's a free bonus. Yeah.

[Pete Hegseth]

And by the way, you may not.

[Katty Kay]

May not want me in your physical space, so don't tell me that.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah. Okay. Now, we now may lose a whole load of founding members.

[Katty Kay]

Okay. That's true. Okay.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Okay, guys, we will see you on Thursday. We'll have passed the deadline by then, so we'll find out what the president has decided. See you then.

[Katty Kay]

Thanks, guys.

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[Steph McGovern]

Hi, it's Steph McGovern here from the Rest is Money. Now, obviously there are big economic consequences to all the geopolitical turmoil. Listen to us to find out how investors are reacting and whether we're heading to a financial Armageddon. I'm talking to Karen Ward, a chief market strategist at J.P. morgan Asset Management. Listen to the Rest is Money to get her. Take.