176. Is Trump the Biggest Loser of the Iran Ceasefire?

Summary

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The Rest Is Politics: US — Episode 176

"Is Trump the Biggest Loser of the Iran Ceasefire?"

Hosts: Anthony Scaramucci (The Mooch), Katty Kay
Date: April 9, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into the fragile Iran ceasefire, the maneuvers of Donald Trump and his administration, shifting alliances in global politics, and what these developments mean for US power and the upcoming midterms. Scaramucci and Kay also analyze recent Democratic successes in Georgia and Wisconsin, and explore growing anti-establishment sentiment and its electoral consequences.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Fragility of the Iran Ceasefire

[00:44–03:48]

• Ceasefire’s Reality on the Ground:

  • Kay relays skepticism from Gulf officials: “What ceasefire? We're still getting missiles lobbed at us… it didn’t look very much like there was a ceasefire.” [01:17]
  • The region remains unstable: Iranians control the Strait of Hormuz, ships have to “check in,” and “the ceasefire… is looking very fragile.” [02:38]

• Trump’s Negotiation Stance:

  • Trump’s eagerness to move on is apparent, per Kay: “He’s abandoned his poker face and he’s laid his cards on the table. … He wants this to be over with. He wants to get onto the next greatest, best thing.” [01:42]
  • The Iranians, perceiving Trump’s rush, see an opening to press for more on the enriched uranium issue.

2. Trump-Netanyahu Dynamics and the NYT Report

[04:05–07:47]

• Describing the White House Scene:
  • Scaramucci highlights a NYT expose, noting that Trump treats Netanyahu as an equal in the Situation Room, a marked contrast to US allies: “If you're a European leader listening in, you guys had to sit like schoolchildren… but not Bibi.” [05:13]
  • Kay: “It makes Netanyahu… look like he’s a kind of equal participant… the Israelis are unified in this message.” [05:54]
  • Netanyahu allegedly promises regime change and an easy operation, while some US voices (Rubio, Vance) privately object but fail to confront Trump directly.

3. Trump’s Weak Negotiating Position

[08:05–12:38]

• Loss of Leverage:
  • Kay: “He didn't have the American people behind him. He didn't actually even have the American government behind him. … Now he wants out and he wants it done.” [08:05]
  • Scaramucci: “This was an emasculating article. He has jettisoned every European ally… and he's sitting there on an island.” [09:06]
  • Trump’s manic tweeting—“72 tweets in a six day period”—is cited as a sign of instability. [10:49]
  • VP Vance is painted as “impotent,” lacking credibility, partnered with Trump’s lack of a cohesive strategy. [11:35, 12:09]

4. Role-Playing: What Should the President Do?

[13:23–15:20]

• Scaramucci’s Five-Point Plan:

  • “Separate from the Israelis… get Vance and State involved… give Netanyahu a private red line in Lebanon… reframe the nuclear ask… use the Hormuz Economic card creatively… make this a peace process, not an event.” [13:24–14:53]

• Kay’s Response:

  • Trump’s volatility means any plan could be derailed by Netanyahu’s influence: “He is so erratic… presents him with a plan, but the next time he speaks to Netanyahu, he'll persuade him of something else.” [15:20]

5. The Real Balance of Power: China and the Ceasefire’s Future

[18:48–22:25]

• The Decisive Role of China:

  • Scaramucci: “The ceasefire will hold if the Chinese want it to hold.” [18:48]
  • China has significant economic interests in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open—Scaramucci believes this is the ultimate leverage point. [21:09]
  • Both hosts agree the US isn’t “in the pole position here.” [21:09]

• Iran’s “Mosaic Defense Network”:

  • Scaramucci: “If [the Iranian Supreme Leader] dies… 31 separate, semi-autonomous units… Who knows what the switches are in that network in terms of ending the ceasefire immediately.” [19:41–20:23]

• Collapse of Western Coalition:

  • Scaramucci lists European allies leaving the coalition: “Germany, out. Italy, out. Spain, out. France, out… He has destroyed the goodwill in the coalition.” [22:25]

6. Implications for US and Israeli Influence

[25:02–25:06]

• Shifting American & Republican Views on Israel:

  • Kay points to a Pew poll: “Underwater with Republicans, with young voters… switched from being largely positive in 2022 to largely negative today.” [25:06]

• Long-Term Alliance Effects:

  • Kay warns: “Cracks in the alliance that has held us together since the end of the Second World War being more exposed.” [24:23]

7. Democrats’ Quiet Surge and the Double-Hater Voter

[25:06–36:51]

• Democrats’ Strong Week:

  • Georgia: Special election shifts toward Democrats by double digits even as a Republican wins. [25:34]
  • Wisconsin: Supreme Court candidate Chris Taylor’s comfortable win, with Republicans performing worse even in strongholds. [26:04]

• The “Double-Hater” Phenomenon:

  • Kay: “A double hater is somebody who hates the Democrats and hates the Republicans. … In polling, double haters now are breaking for Democrats even though they hate them.” [30:57]
  • Scaramucci: “If this carries on… we're just in for a period potentially of one term presidents who can’t get elected for a second term because they’re going to get hated again.” [31:41]

• Democratic Strategy:

  • Kay proposes: “Democrats’ best strategy … may just be to take a quiet holiday… People are rejecting Trump… not necessarily voting for Democrats.” [28:17]
  • Scaramucci agrees on caution: “I don’t think it’s necessary to make more noise at this moment. … But I’m wondering if the anti-Trump rhetoric is gonna be enough.” [28:47]

• Independents & Strategic Recommendations:

  • 45% of registered voters now identify as independents [29:50]; both hosts note these “independents” are not strictly centrist.
  • Kay: “Go and talk to Hispanic voters… keep listening to them. That's probably the better advice.” [36:31]

8. 2028 Presidential Hopes & the Role of J.D. Vance

[36:51–37:50]

• Kay speculates J.D. Vance is positioning for a presidential run, distancing himself from the Iran war in NYT leaks: “He's one of the people who is quoted in quote marks… because he wants it out there… that he did not support the war.” [36:54]
• Scaramucci refers to prediction markets showing Vance as a frontrunner.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Impatience:

  • Kay: “He wants this to be over with. … He’s already talking about Greenland again in some of his truth social posts.” [01:47]

• On Trump’s Weakness:

  • Scaramucci: “You are coming across as a fragile, compulsive, impetuous, non strategic leader of the United States. … Your supposed security umbrella does not work the way the world thought it did.” [10:08]

• On Netanhayu’s Influence:

  • Kay: “Trump listens to the last person he’s spoken to. … the next time I speak to Netanyahu, he’ll persuade me of something else.” [15:25]

• On China’s Leverage:

  • Scaramucci: “It will hold if the Chinese want it to hold. … The Americans are not in the pole position here.” [21:09]

• On Shifting Alliances:

  • Kay: “Europeans and the Americans were unable to overcome the differences between them. Now we have the room being opened for alternatives… which is the Chinese.” [24:23]

• On Public Opinion:

  • Kay: “Underwater with Republicans, with young voters, with Americans in general, a massive decline [in Israel’s brand].” [25:06]

• On Voter Sentiment:

  • Scaramucci: “45% of the Americans that are registered to vote are now identifying as independents. … Gallup has tracked the support for a third party for over 20 years and finds that nearly 6 in 10… agree that a third party, a major third party is needed.” [29:50–30:37]

• On Double Haters:

  • Kay: “A double hater is somebody who hates the Democrats and hates the Republicans. … In that polling the double haters now are breaking for Democrats even though they hate them.” [30:57]

• On Democratic Branding:

  • Scaramucci: “You gotta rehabilitate your brand. … Go back into the hinterland, go into the areas that Trump won and find out what they actually really want and start reflecting that like a good consumer brand would do.” [34:00]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Ceasefire Analysis & Trump’s Motivation: [00:44–03:48]
• NYT Report & Trump-Netanyahu Dialogue: [04:05–07:47]
• Trump’s Loss of Leverage & Alliance Isolation: [08:05–12:38]
• Five-Point Plan Role-Play: [13:23–15:20]
• Chinese Power & Iran’s Internal Dangers: [18:48–22:25]
• Western Alliance Breakdown: [22:25–25:02]
• US & Israeli Reputation Shifts: [25:02–25:06]
• Democratic Election Gains & The Double-Hater Voter: [25:06–36:51]
• 2028 Elections & Vance's Positioning: [36:51–37:50]

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Conclusion

This episode offers a sharp and at times biting exploration of a rapidly deteriorating US-led coalition, Trump’s negotiating weaknesses, China’s ascendant influence, and the precarious state of the Iran ceasefire. Scaramucci and Kay blend inside reporting, dark humor, and critical analysis, highlighting the dangerous vacuum in US leadership and the political opportunities—and perils—this presents for both parties as the 2026 midterms approach.

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Transcript

[A]

Fox News is now streaming live on Fox 1. When it matters most, turn to the voices you trust. We go beyond the headlines, bringing you the stories you won't hear anywhere else. Live coverage, sharp analysis, real perspective at home or on the go. Stay connected when it counts. Stream Fox News on Fox 1 download today.

[B]

Hello and welcome to the rest is Politics U.S. i'm Anthony Scaramucci.

[C]

I'm Katty Kay.

[B]

So, Katty, we're going to be talking about the Iran ceasefire. It's already on the brink, as both of us know and would have predicted. Trump is making threats, of course, overnight, and the Israelis are still striking Lebanon. So Iran is tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. We're going to be also going to ask where the Democrats are in all of this. After strong results. Caddy in Georgia and Wisconsin, do they finally have some momentum heading into the midterms? But first, Caddy, has the ceasefire been a failure?

[C]

That's a great question. I had a conversation yesterday with a official from a Gulf country who said to me, what ceasefire? We're still getting missiles lobbed at us. I was in a restaurant yesterday and I still got a warning sign on my phone saying a missile is incoming. So from the neighbor's point of view, it didn't look very much like there was a ceasefire. Some of that could be, as you and I said earlier in the week, Anthony, when the 8pm deadline passed and this was first announced, that could just be that it takes a little bit of time. That's what J.D. vance is saying. Ceasefires can be messy at the beginning. But I think the bigger issue is that Donald Trump has kind of put his poker hands on the table. He's abandoned his poker face and he's laid his cards on the table. And the moment he'd announced that ceasefire, it was so apparent from his language, from the way he talked about moving forward, from the way he talked about making money, who knew that he wanted out of there? He wanted this to be over with. He wants to move on to the future. He wants to get onto the next greatest, best thing. He's already talking about Greenland again in some of his truth social posts. So he's effectively said to the Iranians, I am so keen for this to be over that as we go into this two week negotiating period, guess what? The Iranians feel they have a very strong hand and the wrangling, I think now the key sticking point is going to be over this enriched uranium. What happens to that? However many pounds it is, kilos it is of Highly enriched uranium that is buried somewhere under the Iranian soil. A lot of people are saying, including on Fox News, that that is the key. He has to get that out. Otherwise it's going to be very hard for him to say that this is a victory. But even before we get there, this two weeks, I mean, there's no ships going through the Straits of Hormuz, as far as I know today, or if they are, they're having to check in. I think there were three lined up, and then there are another three who are just, like, sitting there waiting. The Iranians have said very clearly, you've got to check in with us. So the ceasefire, I'd say, is looking very fragile. And then there's the question of Lebanon that the Vice President has said that was never on the agenda. The Iranians insist it was on the agenda. I mean, the problem is they're not talking to each other. They're going through these intermediaries. I'm told that it's. It's not even clear who's talking. For the Iranians in this process, the Pakistanis and the Chinese are kind of shuttling backwards and forwards to find somebody to talk on behalf of the Iranians. So I think it's kind of a mess. And even if it's not a mess, I'm not sure how much of a win this looks like for the Americans, unless they get that uranium out, in which case we'll be telling a different story. I think it's too soon to say it's failed already. What do you think?

[B]

Well, I mean, the fact that the markets think it has not failed sends a message to me that it hasn't failed yet. It's shaky and it's fragile.

[C]

It's kind of how I feel this morning after not enough sleep. Okay, well, actually how I feel after this last week.

[B]

I mean, listen, I was saying this before the show started. Only Donald Trump could take the Artemis 2, an American achievement, where we're taking photographs of the backside of the moon again, and let's pray for the safe return of these astronauts. Only he could Bigfoot these guys with this disastrous war caddy. But I want to go to something that I think is very important because of Trump's psychology, and that is the New York Times. Excellent reporting.

[C]

Reads like a thriller, right?

[B]

Yeah. Give a brief summary of it. But before you get there, I just want to say that there was one thing in the article that has Trump orbiting somewhere near Artemis, possibly farther out into the solar system than Artemis.

[C]

There would be a lot of allies who'd be happy to have Trump on the dark side of the moon right now.

[B]

Yes. But I'm just letting you know this article was in the New York Times this past week. Take a look at it. We're gonna put it in the newsletter. But the scene is Netanyahu comes to the White House and there's leakers everywhere and we're getting direct quotes from Cabinet members. But before you go, Gatti, cuz I know Trump. He, he is in orbit near Artemis. In the scene. Trump is not at the front of the table. He's in a bilateral across from Bibi Netanyahu. And so if you're a European leader listening in, you guys had to sit like schoolchildren in front of Trump at the Resolute desk. But not Bibi. He's down in the Situation Room and he's literally being treated as an equal by Donald Trump in the Situation Room.

[C]

That was very good reporting.

[B]

And Katie, tell people what happened there, because this is going to influence the ceasefire, in my opinion, and I'll explain why.

[C]

So this is Netanyahu came to the White House and as Anthony said, the reporting by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman, two excellent journalists who know Donald Trump very well and have managed to get people who are right in the Situation Room to describe the scene to them, have Donald Trump unusually on one side of the Situation Room table, Netanyahu on the other side of the Situation Room table with his entourage. And Netanyahu is trying to persuade Donald Trump and he's got on video behind him, he's got the head of Mossad behind him, and he's got people from his team from Israel. So it makes Netanyahu, in the description of this, look like he's a kind of equal participant with his whole team aligned behind him, that the Israelis are unified in this message. And the message to Donald Trump is this is the time to do it. And by the way, it's going to be easy. And by the way, it's going to be quick. And by the way, there will be regime change and you'll be able to destroy Iran and you'll be able to do Mr. President, what no other American president has been able to do. And some American voices in the room who have also leaked, guess who the ones who are wanting to run for 2028, Marco Rubio and J.D. vance do say they think this is bullshit. They think this is not going to happen. It's a fallacy is one of the words that's described. But critically, none of those Americans say to the president you must not do this. This is a very bad idea. And so the Trump buys Netanyahu's line that it's going to be easy and quick, and just like Venezuela, Mr. President, you're going to be in and out and you'll be the hero of the day. And just like last June, you'll be in and out and you'll be the hero of the day. And he didn't really want to listen to those voices who were saying, not so fast. That's basically it, right, Anthony? But Trump also, in the telling of this story, Trump also, by the way, it's clear, wants to do this.

[B]

Yeah, but, Katty, one more question, if you don't mind. And so why, why is that a problem now for Donald Trump, the way Donald Trump's brain works? And why is that a problem as we're going into this ceasefire negotiations?

[C]

The problem is that it didn't pan out the way he wanted. The quick and easy bit of this didn't pan out. And so now it's clear from his psychology and from everything that he has said that he wants out. And if the Iranians believe it's a bit like playing poker, when you have a negotiation, you have to have maximum leverage, and the leverage is that you'll come back and hit them again. But it's so clear that Donald Trump doesn't want to come back and hit them again. Whatever his Truth Social post says this morning that the Iranians understand that he didn't get what he wanted. He didn't have the American people behind him. He didn't actually even have the American government behind him. And he was kind of doing this in cahoots with Benjamin Netanyahu. And now he wants it out and he wants it done. And I think that seeds a lot of American power in these critical next two weeks. Is that what you were thinking of, or were you thinking of something else? I mean, maybe there are multiple problems here.

[B]

All of that is true, and so it's not necessarily what I was thinking, but I'll just say he's a man on his own island. This was an emasculating article. He has jettisoned every European ally, and he has jettisoned even the Japanese. He was denigrating them as well, the South Koreans, et cetera. And he's sitting there on an island, and it turns out that the guy that he's sitting there on the island with, our supposedly leader of the only democracy in the Middle east and all this other stuff, is more in control of the situation than him. And so much so that the intelligence people and the national security architecture around the President are telling him that the ceasefire is very fragile. And your friend Bibi Netanyahu cannot be controlled here. He sent 1200 missiles 10 minutes after the ceasefire was announced.

[C]

The worst strike yet on Lebanon.

[B]

And so you are coming across as a fragile, compulsive, impetuous, non strategic leader of the United States. Moreover, you've also shown the world that your supposed security umbrella does not work the way the world thought it did. And so now you've got people scrambling to figure out how they're going to deal with Iran, what's left of Iran. And you've got people scrambling to figure out whether or not you're going to be able to. And your team is going to be able to solidify this piece. Lastly, Catty, and this is something people really have to listen to. Okay, he is out of his mind with the tweeting. Okay, we're talking about 10 tweets a day, 72 tweets in a six day period. But these are maniacal tweets and the maniacal tweeting is continuing. So I'm telling you, there is nobody in the room with this guy and Vance where they sent him. And this is the stupidest thing ever. But you and I are not even talking about this on our podcast. They're patronizing Viktor Orban.

[C]

Yep.

[B]

Okay. This fringe, lunatic, corrupt, anti democratic European.

[C]

Pro Russian.

[B]

Pro Russian that's actually getting money from the European Economic Union. So the fact that Vance is over there doing this totally destroys Vance's credibility. But by the way, Vance is not as crazy as Donald Trump. Vance is a pliant guy and he's an ass kisser, but he's not as crazy as Donald Trump and he's pretty put together. And he does not have a strategy to end the war and he's impotent Caddy. Unless you're telling me we're going 25th amendment or something like that, which you and I both know is not going to happen.

[C]

Well, because he's impotent. Because the President has made it clear that he just wants out of there. So he hasn't got a big gun in his back pocket, which is we'll go back in and attack. Even though you've still got the USS George H.W. bush on its way there. You've got the President saying, we're taking a period of rest and regroup. Everybody knows he wants out of there. Donald Trump is done, buster. I'm moving on. Which undermines Vance's negotiating position.

[B]

So, Caddy, now we're back to trip us role playing. You're now the president. You're the president. Okay, okay. You look a lot better than the president, Caddy. My God. Not to be superficial, Caddy, but, you know, I am superficial. The bloat. I mean, the president. Take a water pill, man. I mean, the bloat is out of control here. And by the way, he looks terrible. Anybody that says otherwise, he's been under

[C]

a lot of stress. He's showing it.

[B]

But now, Caddy, guess what? By accident, somebody has walked in and Trump has taken a Ritalin. So he's focused, caddy, he's got a Ritalin in him, and somebody's walked in, is ready to tell him the truth. And so I want you to react to this. Ready?

[C]

Go on.

[B]

Mr. President, I just have a few things to say. Number one, we got to separate ourselves from the Israelis at the negotiating table immediately, okay? We've got to keep it that way. Deliberately. There's also allegations made that Wyckoff and Kushner are too close to the Israelis. I know you don't like Vance or anybody taking credit, but you got to get Vance and other people from the State Department involved here. Number two, you got to pick up the phone and call Netanyahu and you got to give him a private red line in Lebanon, okay? You've publicly said it doesn't cover Lebanon. The ceasefire, you and your boys, but you got to cut that out, okay? They killed 182 people on Wednesday alone, and you got to cut that out. Number three, okay? You've got to reframe the nuclear ask. I'm sorry to tell you that you're not going to get exactly what you want. You got to give the Iranians a face saving off ramp here. I've got two more. Quickly, okay? Use the Hormuz Economic card creatively, okay? If we're going to start charging fees there, maybe those fees don't necessarily go completely to the Iranians, but there's other things, other projects. Maybe some of it goes to Gaza, I don't know. But you got to get creative. Mr. President. Hey, wake up. Mr. President, pay attention, okay?

[C]

This list is. You know, I don't do five point lists. You know, I do. I do two photographs, okay?

[B]

This is the last point, okay? You got to make this a peace process, sir, not an event. You're tweeting about meeting the Iranians because you want to have some, like, end game here, okay? The problem, sir, is you're not serious anymore. You've lost your patience. Whatever charm you have left, whatever capabilities you have left, you're trying to get to Z, and we haven't even started at a okay, and you say go.

[C]

I say xi Jinping is coming by May 14th. Fix it all by then. Whatever it takes, fix it all by then. That's what he's focused on. Okay? No, seriously, Netanyahu, he might say, I'm going to rein him in. And then you know what happens? He has a conversation with Netanyahu the next day, and Netanyahu manages to persuade him back. Trump listens to the last person he's spoken to. Those five things you've presented to me, Mr. National Security Adviser Scaramucci, they all sound great, but the next time I speak to Netanyahu, he'll persuade me of something else. So I think it's great idea to present Donald Trump with a plan, but he is so erratic on this that it's possible he does want things wrapped up. I understand by the time Xi gets here that that's very important, Tim. And I think on the uranium, he's going to listen. I mean, it was so interesting listening to Fox News this morning. Fox News laid out a list of the things that America has not achieved in this ceasefire, the missiles, the strait, the regime, the nuclear facilities, lack of inspections. They were super focused on the nuclear capacity. The Gulf states very focused on the nuclear capacity. And by the way, Mr. President, just to throw this up there, if you don't do something about the nuclear capacity, we all know that you are accelerating the process of other countries looking at whether they shouldn't just go for nuclear power, but go for nuclear weapons as well. So there is a real chance of a nuclear arms race if they don't get that nuclear material out of there. So I think you're right. He's going to have to compromise. Because the Iranians keep saying, and they keep putting out all of these tweets this morning saying we're not going to give up the right to enrich uranium. And there may have to be some compromise on that. But it's very interesting. We've spoken about influences on the MAGA side, Anthony, who have distanced themselves with Trump over this war. But it's accelerated in the last 24 hours. When you've got Fox laying out a list of all the things Donald Trump hasn't achieved, that matters. When you've got Megan Kelly really rounding on Trump and criticizing his negotiating skills, saying, what, Is he so weak as a negotiator? Is he so unskilled as a negotiator that he has to threaten civilizational destruction. Is that the only way that he can think that he can get his way and that that was despicable to some extent. These people are mirrors of their audiences. So, Mr. President, another thing I would say is watch out, because your base is not particularly happy with this and they don't think that you look strong at the moment. I can't play Donald Trump anymore.

[B]

All right? I'm gonna give you different roles in the future.

[C]

And also, Donald Trump would not listen to a five point plan. We know this, okay? He'd take two cartoon images or two, two photographs.

[B]

I'm putting the five point plan. There's gotta be an adult somewhere in the administration that's gotta take the reins of this thing. Cuz he's basically incapacitated at this point. If you look at the ferocity of the tweeting, the lack of sentence structure, the incomplete sentences, the wandering mind, the crazy, crazy, crazy.

[C]

Okay, let me ask you something.

[B]

Go ahead.

[C]

Do you think this ceasefire holds for the next two weeks? If you had to put your vast bitcoin fortune on whether this ceasefire holds and then leads to a permanent ceasefire, do you think it's going to happen?

[B]

So I'm going to be the contrarian here and say that the ceasefire will hold if the Chinese want it to hold.

[C]

Right?

[B]

As I have said on the show and three episodes ago, Katty, before this is over, the Chinese are gonna have a huge role in this. Either Trump's going to Cargill and shut off the oil, or the Chinese are coming in to tell the Iranians, calm down, we gotta get to a deal. It's in your economic interest and ours. We're gonna help you rebuild, okay? And by the way, we've weakened. You've done such a great job of weakening the United States. You've raised our ability to be a superpower and we come across way normal.

[C]

Well, that's a great victory for the United States that the Chinese run these negotiations, because then, presumably being the Chinese, they're going to get something out of it that they want out of it. Right? And you've now got this alternative coalition forming.

[B]

But this is why you don't do this, because you have all these unintended consequences. But I want to go back to something that viewers and listeners need to know, is that we don't even know if the leader, the Supreme Leader, is conscious. We don't know that. We have reports that he isn't. I'm not saying he is or he Isn't Because I actually don't know. Okay. But I'm just saying, if he dies, you know and I know that 31 separate, semi autonomous, relatively autonomous units known as the Mosaic Defense Network kicks in hard, and then who knows what the switches are in that network in terms of ending the ceasefire immediately.

[C]

Yes.

[B]

And then can the Chinese even corral that network?

[C]

Not clear.

[B]

Right. Because they're in a little bit of a fanatical death cult, if you don't mind me saying so. And their attitude is, we're gonna survive this no matter what. And last time I checked, they sent children to the power plants and said, hold hands with each other because when the American missiles rain on you as they're trying to destroy our civilization, we need this image out there to the rest of the world. So. So, again, the U.S. i said this to you on a troop support mission to Iraq and Afghanistan and time in the region. The Iranians understand the Americans way better than the Americans understand the Iranians.

[C]

Yes, I agree with that. They have studied America and they've studied Donald Trump and they've studied his weaknesses.

[B]

So it will hold if the Chinese want it to hold. Okay. The Americans are not in the pole position here, and I'm going to make the case for you that it does hold, because I believe the economics around this, because I'm a follow the money guy caddy, I believe the economics around this are such for China that they've got to get that straight open, and they've got to get 40 to 50% of their oil to their production facilities in Asia.

[C]

I agree with you. My hunch would be that it holds partly because of the Chinese and because they want this opened, and it puts them in a very powerful position going forward. And I think it holds partly because Donald Trump is so determined that it should hold, almost whatever the cost that may be, that we end up getting a deal that looks better for Iran and worse for America and worse for our Gulf allies in the region than it might do if the Iranians were less clear that Donald Trump wants out. I mean, in a way, he should have kept some of that leverage. He should have made it clear that he was really ready to go back in fighting, and now nobody believes that he is. And I think that just weakens the art of the deal is not being enacted in this particular scenario.

[B]

So before we go to anything else, could you please comment on the following, though, because you're more European than me. Germany, out. Italy, out. Spain, out. France, out. Norway, out. Denmark. Poland, out. Portugal, out. Et CETERA I can keep going. France. You get the whole point. He has destroyed the goodwill in the coalition. And rather than fawning over him, I think Mark Ruta is the only person in Europe that's still fawning over. I know, but this guy's got a problem. I mean, he's got daddy issues. He really needs a shrink. Mark Rutta.

[C]

Well, he should have a conversation with Todd Blanche, who's now the acting attorney general, who went on television and said, Donald Trump can give me any job he wants. I love you.

[B]

I know.

[C]

I'm not.

[B]

Even for me.

[C]

I love you, too, Anthony. I love you, too.

[B]

Even for me, that stove is a little hot. Okay, I'm going to call Alistair Campbell after this and he's going to be my betterhelp.com after that comment. But listen, my question to you as a European, where is this going U.S. europe? Like, hey, how many times you tell me you're going to pull out your bases, get your bases the hell out

[C]

of here, or move your bases around to other countries, which actually, if they move them into the eastern central of Europe, may actually be what the Europeans were quite like because it puts American bases closer to Russia. So this could be a win, weirdly, for Europe. But this split over this war between the Europeans and the Americans is a real problem in terms of global affairs because, again, it shifts the power away from what could have been a serious bloc of united allies, which is what we've had historically since the Second World War, who, who came together to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, to get a good ceasefire, to deal with the uranium issue. And as it is, the Europeans and the Americans were unable to overcome the differences between them. And now we have the room being opened for alternatives to come in and be the leaders on these negotiations, which is the Chinese, which is actually America's strategic economic adversary over the next century. So I don't see how we come out of this with Western liberal, small l Democratic, pluralistic, capitalist values being strengthened by what we've seen over the last five weeks. We come out of it with the cracks in that alliance that has held us together since the end of the Second World War being more exposed than they were before we started bombing, before

[B]

the Americans started bombing Iran and Israel's brand, Gaddy.

[C]

And Israel's brand in America. We had the Pew number polls on the show earlier this week. Check them out. We'll put them in the newsletter as well. Underwater with Republicans, with young voters, with Americans in general, a massive decline. They've switched from being largely positive in 2022 to largely negative today. So that has huge implications because those younger people will get positions of power in the Congress and that will impact America's policy, it'll impact America's defense funding, and eventually it'll impact the aid budget. But I think that Benjamin Netanyahu, who like Donald Trump, does not really care what comes after him. He cares about himself and his own fortun. Okay, we're gonna take a break and come back and talk about the Democrats. Welcome back to the Rest is Politics us. We thought it was worth a quick catch up at the end of this week on the Democrats who've actually had quietly a very good week here in the US probably the best week. Anthony, I would say that the Democrats have had in terms of election results around the country since Donald Trump was reelected in 2024. Very briefly, in Georgia there was a special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene. She was replaced by a Republican. That was not a surprise. But all of the 10 counties in her district shifted by double digits towards Democratic candidate compared with Donald Trump's win in that district in the 2024 election. In Wisconsin, there was a election for the Supreme Court. You'll remember that Elon Musk got involved in a Supreme Court election before the last election. It didn't go very well for him. Anyway, there was another seat on that Supreme Court came available and the liberal Supreme Court candidate, Chris Taylor comfortably beat her conservative rival. That means that Wisconsin Supreme Court is a five to two liberal majority. What's interesting about that Wisconsin vote, I think is that the Democratic candidate on the Supreme Court, Chris Taylor, did very well, as we'd expect in Democratic areas of Wisconsin. But Republicans did much worse than they had done before in some of the redder areas of the states. And they need big numbers in those red areas of Wisconsin to offset the blue cities in the state. And they just didn't do as well. They dropped like 10 percentage points in some of those red areas. So kind of some flashing red warning signs for Republicans, Red being the color of the Republicans in those two results. I keep hearing, Anthony, and I want you to respond to this, I keep hearing frustration. Where are the Democrats? Where are the Democrats? But let me put an alternative scenario to you. The Democrats best strategy between now and the midterm elections may just be to take a quiet holiday in the Caribbean, put their head in the sand and not say very much, but because what you're seeing in these big double digit swings towards the Democrats in elections around the country like the ones this week in Georgia and Wisconsin is not actually votes necessarily in favor of Democrats. These are votes that are angry with Republicans. And I'm not really convinced that between now and November, Democrats have got much hope of turning round the favorabilities of their own parties. Their favorabilities are in the toilet when you look at the polling. So what's happening is that people are rejecting Trump, they're rejecting the Republican Party, they're rejecting the war in Iran, they're rejecting the high gas prices, they're rejecting high prices generally. They're probably rejecting some of the tariffs and the chaos. And I think probably the Democrats best strategy at this moment is when your enemy is having a very rough day. Let them carry on having a very rough day. Would you like to see the Democrats come out and make more noise at the moment? I suspect you would. I think you think that's wrong.

[B]

I don't think it's necessary to make more noise at this moment. I'm just wondering if the anti Trump rhetoric is gonna be enough.

[C]

I think it could be in 2026. I think it could be in the midterms. So we should distinguish between 2026 and 2028. And for everyone saying, oh, well, where's the standard barrier? Where's the figure of the Democratic Party? In 2006, Barack Obama was not a national figure, and in 2008, he swept the election. I mean, my point is you can go through that primary process, and I know I've said this before, of the general election, and that gives you your figure. I'm not saying that they've got the right figure, and I'm not saying they've got another Barack Obama. But it is worth thinking back in history and thinking there wasn't a Barack Obama. We were not talking about Barack Obama in the 2006 midterm elections.

[B]

We weren't. But let's talk a little bit about sentiment and polling, and let me get your opinion on the following. Are Americans enthusiastic to be run by Democrats? Yes or no?

[C]

No.

[B]

Okay. So the problem is 45% of the Americans. 45% of the Americans that are registered to vote are now identifying as independents. This is a Gallup poll. And remember now, Gallup will not do presidential approval ratings anymore because they have a lot of governmental contracts, and so the president's approval ratings in the tank. So, Mr. President, don't worry, we're not going to report those anymore because we need these governmental contracts. So, Gallup, a little bit of weeniness there, but let me read this to you. Gallup has tracked the support for a third party for over 20 years and finds that nearly 6 in 10 caddy, 58% agree that a third party, a major third party is needed. So catty. Could that ever happen in the United States?

[C]

No. Equally? No.

[B]

So you have something in the country right now that's called the double hater problem.

[C]

We love double haters on this program.

[B]

We love double haters. Okay, so tell, tell our viewers and listeners. And your new role is Katie. Katie K. Okay, so tell our viewers and listeners what a double hater is. Go ahead.

[C]

A double hater is somebody who hates the Democrats and hates the Republicans. The phrase came about actually in the last election campaign. Those of you who were listening to us back then will remember it was actually somebody who hated Donald Trump and hated Kamala Harris, hated all of their options. What's interesting about those double haters though, Anthony, my understanding is that in that polling the double haters now are breaking for Democrats even though they hate them more than they're breaking for Republicans.

[B]

Okay, that's correct. And let's explain why. Okay. Or at least my opinion why. And then if you agree with me, you can tell me if you do they hate both so much that who's ever the last person in the seat? Get your ass out of that seat.

[C]

Yes, exactly.

[B]

Okay. Is that what it is? Okay, that's what it is. Okay.

[C]

That's why Chris Christie, the Republican governor, former governor of New Jersey, your friend, my friend, is going on television saying to the Democrats, Democrats go and take a holiday in Turks and Caicos until November, cuz you know what? You'll get elected. Cuz they hate these guys. If this carries on being the case, we're just in for a period potentially of one term presidents who can't get elected for a second term because they're gonna get hated again. And that, you know what? That is what is happening around the world as well. Leaders have terribly poor opinion ratings. We're in this period where voters are in a real funk with their leadership post. Covid funk. But if you were running for president, they would love you. Don't worry.

[B]

You're talking about Chris Christie now, right?

[C]

I'm talking about you. I'm talking about you, Anthony.

[B]

Keep the gun on the bro. See, look at the sarcasm coming out.

[C]

Mooch for 28. Look how much they love you. Not your wife, unfortunately. Unfortunately, she would not love you.

[B]

There's a very big gap between the lip and the cup there. So let's just go to a serious question now. And that serious Question is, let's say you're a transformative leader. You know, you're a Barack Obama. I'm gonna break the stronghold here, gonna reunite the country. You know, we're not red and blue or red, white and blue. The whole thing, of course, didn't happen. But we're gonna say that we have a new person on the stage. What would you tell them to do? Go to Turks and Caicos? Shut up.

[C]

No.

[B]

Or come up with this bold new vision and this new narrative.

[C]

If you are running for president, you cannot afford to take that holiday to Turks and Caicos with all of the other Democratic members of the House and the Senate, leave them in the Caribbean. You need to come up with something that is exciting, can ideally fit into a TikTok video, is clear and compelling, and offers an alternative that sounds radically different and sounds that you can actually implement it, actually get it through the American system of government and produce results for the American people. And you probably have to be a centrist, pro business, pro growth, moderate American politician with charisma and enormously good communication skills that are suited to this environment. There you go. That's the job description for the next president of the United States.

[B]

Okay, so again, I'm going to give you three things quickly, okay? Okay. Come on, guys. We got double haters in the thing. You can't be do nothing. You got to focus on the economy and the kitchen table issues. And there are some easy things we could do. And guess who was doing them. Oh, that actually would be Joe Biden. Okay. Because things were actually going in the right direction before Mr. Ying Yang started tariffing and acting like a berserker Zoid. Okay, number two, stop running against Donald Trump. You gotta start running for something. Okay? Yes, you're gonna win in Wisconsin and Georgia. There's anti Trump sentiment. There's anti Trump sentiment. You're gonna win the House. Seems pretty obvious, but it's not enough. Okay? And you gotta rehabilitate your brand. If you're Martin, the head of the dnc, nobody wants you. Nobody wants to be led by you. So go back into the hinterland, go into the areas that Trump won and find out what they actually really want and start reflecting that like a good consumer brand would do. And last but not least, fight for the middle. Katty K. Because 45% of the Americans are living in the middle. They don't like the AOC nonsense. They don't like the Donald Trump nonsense. Fight for the middle.

[C]

I agree with that. I agree with all of that. The only thing I would take issue with is that 45% who call themselves independents, who we always assume are centrist voters. When you actually break down that 45% of independent voters, some of them are die hard conservatives. They just don't register with the Republican Party, perhaps because the Republican Party is not conservative enough for them. Some of them are die hard progressives who don't always register as Democrats, perhaps because the Democratic Party is not progressive enough for them. When you dig into that group of independents, they actually reflect the electorate more broadly. Some of them are centrist. But I think it's a little bit of a misnomer to think that because 45% of Americans identify as independent, it actually means they're centrists. It means they're swing voters. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're in the center. And the other thing I would say to them to do, go and talk to Hispanic voters, not just on the eve of election and say, please vote for me, por favor, this election, but go and talk to them the day after an election, the day after, the day after an election, five days after an election. You've got to keep going because the actual swing voters are probably Hispanic voters at the moment. They are the people in this cycle who seem to be citing elections. So. So go and talk to them and keep talking to them and keep listening to them. Actually, don't just talk to them, listen to them. That's probably the better advice before we go.

[B]

I know we gotta go, but before we go. Katty. J.D.

[C]

vance running for president right now, he hopes he is. And he's trying to figure out a way to put enough distance between himself and the start of the Iran war. And he's hoping that if he can come up with the peace deal at the end of it, that will help him. And the other reason we think that he's running because he is one of the people who is quoted in quote marks in that New York Times article that we mentioned in the first half. And the only reason that he's being quoted directly in that New York Times article or letting people get those quotes into the New York Times article is because he wants it out there on the record that he did not support the war.

[B]

All right, we'll have to see what happens here. You know, I'm not convinced yet that he's running for president. Polymarkets have it over 65%. So you're likely going to be running at the moment.

[C]

Look, things can change. We're two, we're, you know, we're a year away. But I don't see any sign that he won't run at the moment. The bigger interesting question will be Marco Rubio and whether he runs if J.D. vance runs. We'll see you next week guys.

[B]

Anyway guys, thank you.

[C]

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[D]

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