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This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp.
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There are times when things might feel a little bit off, but we just carry on and don't really stop to deal with it all.
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It's stress, it's pressure, anxiety, the kind of things most of us carry, often shaped by the pace and pressure of daily life. This May is dedicated to mental health awareness, giving us a good moment to, to pause and check in with ourselves.
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And this is where BetterHelp comes in. It offers access to experienced therapists, giving you the space to talk things through and make sense of what's on your mind, helping you to take a step back from everything you're going through every day and gain some of that much needed perspective.
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BetterHelp handles the initial matching for you. You fill out a short questionnaire, they match you with a therapist and if it's not quite the right fit, you can switch at any time.
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H E L p.com trip us. Hello and welcome to the Rest is Politics. Us. I'm Anthony Scaramucci, joined today by my friend and a friend of the show, the very brilliant Stephanie Rule, who's the anchor of the 11th hour on Ms. Now. She's also a senior business analyst there. And Stephanie, I don't like telling people how long I know you because I'm lying about my age.
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B
I mean, I'm only 29. So what? We met in high school. We've known each other for a long, for a long, long time.
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A
Stephanie, if we met in high school, you and I would have never gotten out of high school. So we've sort of fortunate for both of us that we didn't meet in high school. But today we're going to be talking about the markets, which you are an expert about, where we're going to be trying to understand why the market is ignoring the Strait of Hormuz and while oil flows are under threat. And I'm here in London and some of the European analysts are saying there's only six weeks left of jet fuel. Stocks are doing the exact opposite of what I would expect. Maybe you expect this and if you do, you have to explain why. And then of course in the second half we're going to talk about Donald Trump heading for a head to head collision with Fed chair Jerome Powell and can the president force him out and what happens if Chairman Powell refuses to go. Let's start with your view of the economic situation in the stock market. Why have they decoupled?
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B
So thank you for having me. We've always said that the market has and the economy are two different things. And we've said we have this K shaped economy right now. I feel like that is the case more than ever. In the last 24 hours, the President on the Great Lawn was asked about high gas prices, and his response was, well, they're not really that high after all. And that right there shows that this president is focused on institutional investors, not the American people. And while you have members of the GOP basically begging the President to get on message and start talking about the economy, well, what has he done in the last week? He's attacking the Pope. He's sending unhinged tweets, and we've got this war with Iran. And what the President does, and it blows my mind and it disappoints me in terms of the markets. We watch what he does. Bad news about the war comes out on a quiet news time Saturdays. By Sunday night, he's like, hey, there's gonna be peace talks in the morning. And then the market goes. He tells Fox Business the war is over. And then there's absolutely no facts to back that up. But we're watching investors who know better, right? Investors know better. They know that Trump isn't telling the truth. But there's an important thing that people don't realize. Traders, they don't even necessarily care what the end result is six months from now or even four months from now. It's all about volatility. Okay? In this first quarter, some, some of the biggest banks out there had the biggest quarter they've ever had in terms of equity trading because it's just about volume and volatility and the difference between an investor and a real business. I'm going to give an example. If you think that Trump is full of it, if you think this war isn't ending for the foreseeable future and you're just an investor, no big deal. He says something positive. You know, the market's going to go up. You, you can buy the market today, you can go long today, and tomorrow, you can sell everything that's different from a, from operating a real business, right? I just learned this morning, I'm in D.C. for the semaphore conference, and I learned that a toilet manufacturer, you know those Japanese toilets, Toto, they make the fancy toilets, they're gonna stop manufacturing a few of their models because of what's happening in Iran because they're gonna be missing inputs that they need for manufacturing. So businesses that actually real businesses, not just investors who are trading the markets are struggling. You opened the conversation with you've got airports in five different countries that are now potentially facing jet fuel shortages. You've got countries that are having kids go to school from home or have a four day work week. Not because of a global pandemic, because of what's happening in terms of oil prices. So investors are like, yeah, oil prices will be down, we'll deal with the long term impact down the road. But today, as long as Trump is giving us news, which he gives us every day, let's just play the markets. And I think that's totally distressing because the President is focused on those markets and not the everyday Americans who are at the bottom of the K economy and they're struggling. What do you think?
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A
Well, I want to be the bull here for a second and look past the war and look at liquidity and rate expectations. I think that's one thing buoying the market. You and I both know what the Fed at like let's say four and a quarter, roughly between four and a quarter and 4:37 on the 10 year. That's the interest rate in the United States. The expectations are that if the war ends they'll be able to cut rates and rates are coming lower. And so the market's pricing. Some of that in the AI Capex is part of a real earnings cycle here. It's not just a narrative in my opinion. And so you've got billions of dollars that's flowing into this which is hurting us on energy prices, but it's really creating a tremendous amount of capital expenditure throughout entire economy and that's causing a lot of profits. We saw what's going on with the banks. You saw the print from Goldman Sachs,
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B
Bank America, JP Morgan.
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A
Right, exactly. The bank of America just printed an $8.6 billion quarter goal. It was a five plus trillion dollar quarter. And you know, Moynihan said in the conference call that the consumer seems way more resilient and margins for these banks right near record highs and they're all running big buyback programs. So I guess what I'm wondering is to your point about the K shape because I am also talking to Americans that are faced with a ratcheting affordability crisis. The President saying to people that like what you just said, that the gas prices are going lower, but they know they're not going lower. Rising consumer costs are sort of through the roof. You've got fertilizer going to be super expensive, Stephanie, which is going to increase food prices and likely there could be some food shortages. And so I guess the question I have for you is how much more tolerance do Americans have for these cost of living increases? So, yeah, I accept that. The K part of the economy, even though there's a war going on, they think the war is going to end relatively quickly. The unwind is going to be beneficial to these companies. Defense spending is likely to go up. The defense stocks are doing quite well. But Americans are suffering. And the unemployment rate is moving. It went to 4.6%. You and I know that that's a garbage number because the labor participation rate, meaning people are exhausted from looking for work, and so they stop looking for work and, you know, they fall off the unemployment scrolls once they go past a year. So the labor participation rate is terrible. And the IMF is saying that we're gonna have a global recession if we keep the war up. So go ahead. What do you think happens?
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B
Yeah, I mean, Ken Griffin From Citadel said:2 days ago, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for six months, 12 months, we are going to inevitably face a global recession. And you know, the one thing that's interesting as everybody's sort of dogging on the US and saying, like in previous economic, global economic crises, the United States has always been the reliable partner, the stable partner, and we're not that partner this time around. That's true. But it's not like other countries have stepped up to take our place, to be the world leader. We're getting worse, but nobody else is stepping in. But to your political question, it's interesting because people were fed up with the cost of living during the Biden administration when Janet Yellen and others talked about inflation and kept saying, it's transitory, it's short term, we're gonna, you know, we're still better than the rest of the world. Nobody wanted to hear it. They were angry when the Biden administration said that to them. And I think that's one of the main drivers what elected Donald Trump. Now here we are months away from the election, the midterms, and the president. The GOP has been asking the president to get on message about the economy for months and months. And the reason, I just think, I mean, he's not doing it because he's distracted with, as I said, fighting with the Pope and the war and everything else. But one of the biggest challenges about, like, why can't he just get on message about the economy. He can't get on message because he's currently responsible for the economic woes that the bottom half of the K are facing. Right. So the trade wars have made life more expensive. That was the President's choice. So the war in Iran that's making gas prices more expensive has been the President's choice. And our extremely harsh immigration policies and war on science and education, the President's choice. So you could say that there have been presidents that have presided over an economy when the housing crisis, the financial crisis hit. And we could judge or vote for or against them based on how they handled that crisis. But the woes that we face now economically, that bottom half of the K, Donald Trump can't talk around them because his signature is on the bottom of them. What do you think? Disagree with me?
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A
I think he loses. No, well I don't necessarily want to disagree with you because I think a lot of what you're saying is true. But I just think that he's not going to get out of this intact for the midterms. He may even lose the Senate at this point. I don't think he loses the Senate to the point where he gets impeached and removed from office. But I do think he's got a lot, he's going to have a lot of pressure on him if things don't turn around quickly. And I, and I, you know, we have a lot of viewers and listeners from outside the United States. I just want to explain to people, when the US says it has a 4.6% unemployment rate, it's a garbage number. The right number to look at is the U6 number. And so, so what does that mean? And Stephanie knows this. You include everybody that's been looking for a job in addition to the people that are looking for a job past one year. And when you do that, that number's closer to 7.9%. And just to take people back 40 plus years when we were at 10% unemployment, Stephanie, we were in a full on recession in 1982. And so for me I think we end up now in a recession. I think the Capex spending will be fine, the market will probably be somewhat buoyed. But as recessionary forces kick in in the United States, it's very deconsumptive for the bottom half of the country. Stephanie, I just give this, these numbers. People need to think about this, about America and about the general unfairness that's going on in America. The realtor.com says that the average price of a home is $383,000. If you reverse engineer a salary that you need to pay a mortgage on that home, you got to make at least $170,000 to afford that home and not be house poor. The median income in the United States is $83,000. So that means people are missing dental appointments, they're skipping prescription drugs, they get into a fender bender, they're not taking the car to the collision shop because they can't afford even the insurance deductible and they don't want their rates to go higher. So I guess what I'm saying, because you came from an environment similar to me, we both grew up in middle class, working class families. And so when I go back home and talk to my cousins that are still in that environment, they are really suffering. A lot of them frankly voted for Donald Trump and they are super mad now. And so I guess my question is more it's economic but also political. So what happens? Because the Democrats have not provided any solutions for those people either. You know, Mayor Mondame's like, hey, you got a $5 million second home in New York. We're going to tax the daylights out of you. Which means those people are going to sell those homes and buy those homes in Florida. So I mean, that's all that's going to happen. It's just, you know, it's a stupid tax and it's never worked. When you tax the rich like that, it's frankly never worked.
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B
I think that people are very angry, but the onus is on Democrats to not just say he's not doing the right thing. They have to offer a solution. Okay, think about this. Farmers were crushed by Trump's first term and the tariffs he imposed. And yes, he put together a farm aid bill last time to soften the blow. But farmers still know what happened and they weren't happy about it. And then they turned around and voted for him again, not because they're ignorant. Like farmers deeply understand how trade works. They deeply understand how climate works. But Democrats were unable to go there and message and to provide them with a solution. And what Donald Trump did the first time around, back when you knew him very well, he accurately and directly expressed and identified Americans pain. What's different this time, Anthony, is I don't think he cares. And I'm not saying he definitely cared last time, but let me just draw the Comparison In Trump 1.0, you went to many of them. He did rallies all the time. Right. Trump's original Make America Great Again America first platform is what thrust him into office. He did rallies all the time. He's barely done two this term. And he spends all of his time between the White House and, and Mar a Lago. So he's basically in a gilded cage. And in this gilded cage, he is surrounded by people who have made a phenomenal, mind blowing amount of money, whether it's their businesses that are, that are Trump adjacent, whether they're in the crypto space, whether they're investors who seemingly know exactly what the market's going to do before anyone else. So he's surrounded by people or, you know, he's suddenly around many, many tech leaders who've grown close to him. Because now the AI universe is gonna face almost no regulation in Trump 2.0. So. So those frustrated, angry Americans, many of whom voted for him or didn't vote for him or didn't vote at all because they're so frustrated that the government doesn't work for them despite the fact that they pay taxes, I don't think he's seeing or hearing those people right now. However, unlike Trump 1.0, where he was very frustrated by people in his own administration who weren't doing what he liked, I think he's very happy now, even if he's leading policies that aren't wildly popular. He has a 100% accommodative administration who executes whatever he fancies. And he's only surrounding himself by Americans who are winning big time economically. And he himself and his family, and the family of Howard Lutnick and Howard Lutnick's children and so on and so forth, have become so phenomenally wealthy. Good times are here again for them, right? We've talked about this before. Think about Trump's world Liberty Financial, right? Trump's meme coin, it's down 82%. But Trump and his family have extracted billions of dollars. So while I think the American people are frustrated and, and angry, I don't think that he is. I saw the President three weeks ago. I went to lunch at the White House on the day of the State of the Union, which to me he was facing a very frustrated, angry America. He almost seemed joyous. And I think it's because who he is surrounded by, and I think the American people are certainly not the same sentiment that elected him, elected Mamdani in New York, who are saying, this doesn't work for me. I can't afford my life.
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A
So when I tell people that really only he cares about is making money for himself, you're providing evidence of that, Stephanie, by saying he looks joyous even though most people are suffering.
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B
That was my take when I saw him. And listen, talk to anybody. Any given weekend, it's a fundraiser at Mar a Lago. That's one to five million dollars ahead. Right then that Saturday night when the first strike in Iran, they still had a fundraiser at Mar a Lago. Saturday night when Witkoff And Jared and J.D. vance were in Pakistan for what was supposed to be the start of these peace talks. He said a UFC fight. You're not looking at a president who's presiding over a country, who's thinking about parents whose son and daughters are out defending our country in the Gulf. He's finally as wealthy, wealthier than he had purported himself to be all these years, as are his kids. And you know the grift that we talked about in Trump 1.0, it's sort of on full display. It's not sort of. It is.
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A
I just think that the Democrats are not offering policy solutions. I don't hear anything other than anti Trump bashing rhetoric. They could put out a doubling of the earned income tax credit for both childless and people with families. You could pick up several hundred, if not a several thousand dollars from that. That can go back into the economy. No jobs, training. You know, there's a huge Medicaid gap now because of the big beautiful spending bill. You're taking 17 million people off of that. They haven't provided a solution to bring those people back, a result of which those people are going to end up hurting the economy by rushing to the emergency room when they have a problem and waiting too long.
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B
And Anthony, you tell me, who is the group in the government that's working on AI dislocation? I don't want to come across or I don't want to make you think I'm anti AI in any way. But assuming we accept the idea that AI is going to change every element of the way that we live, work and play, I'd like to know who's the group inside of our government who's saying, how do we solve for the mass numbers of job displacement in our country? Right. There are many, many jobs that I'm not even going to get to this next point. I'm going to go off the rails. But all I hear is AI all the way. We've got to win this AI war. It's between us and China. And okay, I accept that principle. Who is focusing on the aftermath? Because you and I have talked about this before. The government is not supposed to run like a business. Yes, it should run more efficiently. But what the government needs to be is a framework to make sure that people can be financially secure, physically safe and socially free. AI is going to cause a massive disruption in our lives. Who's the working group focused on that? I don't know the answer.
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A
Well, there's no working group. But I mean, the number one thing, I mean, if it were me, I would say, number one, stop pretending it's not going to happen because you have all these old school democratic solutions are not going to work. If 20% of the labor force is going to get knocked out of the game by AI. And by the way, you start knocking out white collar jobs and upsetting all the soccer moms in suburbia, you're going to have a very big problem. Right? So number one, stop pretending it's not going to happen. Number two, real skilled policymakers are talking about wage insurance. And so let me give you the example. I'm making $70,000 a year and I lose the job now. And because of AI, I can only make 40. We got to have a wage insurance pool. If you're going to be using the AI, you have to pay into a pool so that when you fire the worker, okay, the worker can have supplemental income for a period of time until they can get retrained or find another job. No one's talking about that. You got to have portable benefits because you know what happens? The person gets fired. Our healthcare benefits, I would imagine, like me, my healthcare benefits are tied to skybridge. I'm sure yours are tied to Ms. Now.
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B
Yes.
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A
And so we gotta, we gotta think about that. And then like it or not, we have to come up with a robot tax. No one's talking about it, but we would need a robot tax so that when you're replacing a worker with the software, you have something in there that helps equalize things. Because if you don't have that, you're not going to be able to have a layer of cushioning for the economy. It's going to be very, very destructive.
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B
And Anthony, instead what we've created is this open road for the AI tech entrepreneurs, whether it's Sam Altman or others who it's been wildly reported, right? These guys might be geniuses and visionaries, but they're going to get on their rocket ships and leave rubble behind and we're going to be in the rubble. Who's the government body that's actually going to focus on the impact? Because it's not those business leaders for sure.
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A
Well, because you have fossils, Stephanie, in these positions Correct. Okay, you've got 100 year old people that won't leave the government in these positions. You know, Trump's 80 years old. Should he be the President right now? I mean, come on, you know, Chuck Grassley, Nancy Pelosi, finally, I mean, I guess, you know, she did a seance with George Washington, who she was related to, you know, 200 years ago or something. I guess she's finally leaving.
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B
I find it amazing, Anthony. And when I try to bring this up, I get annihilated for being ageist. But if in the business community, if you've watched businesses say we're going to have a cutoff for how old people, you know, once people reach a certain age, they can't sit on our board anymore. Or this is where people are at peak, you know, optimizing their performance. Why? When it comes to government, right. The people who set our laws, who set policy that will impact decades to come, were saying, sure, you know, we don't wanna hurt your feelings. No limit when it comes to age. And I think when it comes to those lawmakers, so many of them are so addicted to the power, they're going to hang on for dear life as long as they can. Think about your business, right? Think about when we went, or my old business when we worked in banking. You're hard pressed to even find somebody on a trading floor over the age of 50.
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A
No, they get blown out, Correct. Or they get blown out because they gotta make way for the new blood. But I'm just saying to you, Stephanie, if they don't find politicians that can address this issue. The 20th century middle class is built on two things. A good factory job and an employer provided benefit. The AI breaks both of those in most cases. So particularly with the robotics coming on combined with the AI. So all I'm saying is we're going to end up with a two tier society that looks like Charles Dickens with a smartphone. And if we don't have competent politicians that come up with a policy initiative for this, yeah, they'll be the Mag 7, they'll make a lot of money and all that other stuff. But I just think it's very dangerous.
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B
The reason I'm scared of what you're saying is who in this administration is even acknowledging that? Because the President is going from the White House to Mar a Lago and all of the people in both of those places are on the right side of the economic trade. And so I don't even think the economic reality that you're talking about is being acknowledged.
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A
Well, yeah, but okay, forget about those people though. What about the opposition? Okay, I accept that those people. Forget it. We've lost those people. But what about the opposition? We. Where is the position paper from Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, where's the position paper from the Democrats? Say here's the annihilation problem coming here are the solutions or potential solutions for the problem. So, but listen, you know the stock market, unless the war goes longer than it thinks, stock market is holding and profits are holding. Yes, we'll just have to see if we can clear the straight of her moves before we run out of energy
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B
profits of big business. Remember Anthony, we had an extraordinary amount of small businesses in this country go out of business last year.
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A
No, I'm with you. Trust me. It pains me. All right, when we come back, we're going to talk about Trump versus Jerome Powell. Okay. Luke Skywalker versus Darth Vader when we come back. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or, or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now@bloomberg.com. Welcome back to the Restless Politics Us with me, Anthony Scaramucci. I'm joined by my dear friend Stephanie Rule before we talk about Jerome Powell. What is going on with those bedposts behind you? Stephanie Rule? And for those of you that are listening, as opposed to watching, is that a Trump hotel that you're living in? Go ahead, tell me. Tell me the truth.
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B
You didn't think this was.
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A
I'm here in this like generic corporate London hotel.
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B
You didn't think this was my bedroom at home? Yes, this is my bedroom home. My husband sleeps in one royal bed and I sleep in the other. No, I am staying at a hotel in Washington. Cause I'm here for a conference. I should have realized it when I entered the room. And this used to be the location of the Trump International Hotel where you have probably had many nights having cocktails with international dignitaries.
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A
It's nice to see that Liberace got to the bedrooms in the hotel as well. He didn't just do the Oval Office.
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B
I was gonna say it looks like the Oval Office here.
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A
All right, good. So I mean, we're talking to Stephanie Rule from a gold leafed hotel room in Washington. But we got a big Washington drama going on between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump and May 15th is just around the corner. So viewers and listeners, Jerome Powell's term ends May 15, but guess what? Thom Tillis and a Group of the Senate Banking Committee Republicans, really led by Tillis, because he doesn't care anymore. He's not running for reelection. He is blocking Kevin Warsh's ability to get confirmed. So the way it works in the US you got to go through the Senate Banking Committee. Once you're confirmed there, they kick it up to the Congress and then the Senate has a vote on your confirmation. But Tilla says he won't allow that to happen until the Department of Justice, Jeanine Pirro in the D.C. area drops the criminal charges and the potential indictment of Jerome Powell. So you are down in Washington and you cover this really well. Is that going to happen? Are they going to drop the criminal charges or are they going to keep them going? And prosecutors have admitted to journalists they have no evidence on this case. This is just a Trump retribution case. So we now have the Department of Injustice.
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B
Stephanie, yet again, the President is using our, not his, our Department of Justice for his own personal vendettas. And time and again, it's not even working out for him. Right. It was just this week a judge threw out the case, the defamation case that Trump launched against Rupert Murdoch and the Wall Street Journal for the accurate reporting they did on the Jeffrey Epstein birthday book. Remember when Donald Trump sent him basically the, you know, had basically the one page love letter in Epstein's birthday book, despite the fact that two days ago JD Vance said Donald Trump hated Jeffrey Epstein. Last I checked, nobody I hate writes me these birthday tributes. But Donald Trump has a bee in his bonnet to go after Jay Powell. And we should remind your audience Donald Trump nominated him. Donald Trump chose Jerome Powell in his first term. He's grown angrier and angrier with him. I actually have this belief that potentially Kevin Warsh doesn't mind all of this getting delayed. Because for Kevin Warsh, who's wanted this job for years and years, he wanted it during Trump 1.0. He campaigned unbelievably hard and skillfully to get it in Trump 2.0. The closer Kevin Warsh can get to the midterms once he's confirmed, the better. The closer he can get to Donald Trump being a lame duck president, the greater Warsh's ability to actually run an independent Federal Reserve, which is, I'm sure he made all sorts of wink, wink, nod nods to the President, but he'd like the Fed to be independent. It's one of the most important things in terms of our economic health. But right after Trump chose him, I think it was less than a week later, it was the Alfalfa dinner. And Trump said it, tongue in cheek, joking. But he said, right up there, and Kevin Warsher's in the room. I think he's a member of Alfalfa. He said, and don't forget, if you don't lower rates, I'm gonna sue you. And that's been Trump's M.O. since he landed back in office. But I'll tell you, with the exception of the press, who continues to stand up and stand against this president, the courts have not been friendly to him. Jeanine Pirro might be, Pam Bondi may have been, but the courts haven't been in large part.
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A
So your opinion Warsh doesn't get through the committee. It's May 16th. Jerome Powell's term is over. Does he stay as chairman?
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B
I think he stays. I think Jay Powell signature. Besides getting us through a complicated Covid. Right. There were times you could say, like, he's doing a disastrous job. But hindsight's 20 20. He's gotten us through this, right? He has. I think Jay Powell continues to say, what is the exact letter of the law, what are the exact rules? And he has shown zero fear or folding or response to Donald Trump. And he's just held steady. So if he technically is allowed to stay in that role, he ain't going anywhere. What do you think he's gonna do?
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A
Well, I think Trump will try to fire him. He told Maria Bartiromo that he's gonna fire him. He fired Lisa Cook, and the court injuncted that and said that she can stay, and that's awaiting trial. So he'll fire Jerome Powell, I believe, because of that past precedent. Jerome Powell, you gotta love this guy. He's got brass. K owns, as they say.
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B
He sure does.
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A
And he's gonna. He's gonna stay. And then if he's able to stay, Trump's trying to get Steve Moran, one of his governors, the interim Fed chair, but that's not gonna happen.
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B
You tell me the answer to this. Who are the voters who are saying, donald Trump, I voted for you to get Jay Powell the hell out of that seat. Who. This to me, right, goes back to yet another one of Donald Trump's personal vendettas. Right? You've got the stock, you have the S and P winking at hitting record highs. Okay. Despite all that's happening in terms of policy, businesses are doing very well. What's his beef with Jay Powell? He should be able to say things are moving pretty smoothly. I'm a. Okay, sure. I'd like rates to be lower every President would like rates to be lower. It confounds me that he continues to ride Jay Powell like Secretariat.
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A
All right, so, so here's what I think is going to happen. He's going to stay. They may try to push to get 60 votes. That's one way to dislodge the committee block. I think that's very low likelihood the Supreme Court's going to rule on the Lisa Cook situation. Again, this is a board of governor fired by Trump. The oral arguments were a few months ago and the court's supposed to rule in June. I think the court's ruling against Trump because that would mean that every time a new politician comes into town, they can fire the whole board. Even Judge Kavanaugh, one of the lackeys of Donald Trump, questioned the Solicitor General in the oral argument related to this. So here's what I think is going to happen. Powell stays. And I'm making the bet that between now and May 15, the charges are dropped. I repeat, the charges are dropped. Because Senator Tim Scott said this is gonna get resolved in a few weeks. Jeanine Pirro pooh, poohed that. The White House pooh, poohed that. But I believe there are so many fish frying in the White House fryer. Right? Trump is back at McDonald's, Stephanie. He's frying fish for fish filet and he's frying French fries and he's trying to fry Jerome Powell and it's not gonna work.
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B
But why? My question to you is, besides when Trump decides he's Maddie.
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A
Because he is an asshole. Let's just go over the pyramid of what it is. Why are you laughing?
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B
I wasn't ready for that answer.
- [34:40]
A
And. Well, because that's the answer. Okay. And that's, you know, look, I mean, you know, you know, that's the answer. And our viewers and listeners know that he's answer. He's a retribution oriented, retribution centric asshole and he's running the department of injustice and he wants to use the cudgel of that against people like Comey and John Bolton and Jerome Powell. They make me. And my opposition to Donald Trump is like a cakewalk. Actually, it's like a very light in comparison.
- [35:11]
B
Okay, but then, Anthony, explain this to me. I would argue that Jay Powell being in that job has only helped the markets. Donald Trump's most important, if only guardrail are the markets. And Jay Powell being in that seat and giving investors here and abroad the assurance that the Fed has maintained its independence has only helped the markets. How doesn't Donald Trump even See that? So let's say he. Listen, he's a phenomenal communicator. I can't think of someone who's been more effective in terms of messaging as a modern day politician. So he could put on his dog and pony show and say, I'm trying to get Jay Powell to cut rates. I know it's so hard to get a mortgage out there and that would be enough. But instead to take it to the mat, to try to take Jay Powell down when the booming markets have been one of the things that Donald Trump can surround himself with in a cushion of joy. I just don't understand, besides having a personal vendetta, why he doesn't think strategically and just leave Jay Powell the heck alone.
- [36:17]
A
He's a bully and he's trying to send a message to his new Fed chair. If you don't do exactly what I want, we're going to have a criminal investigation against you. You see what I'm doing to Jerome Powell right now? That's your future if you don't do exactly what I want. But remember, Powell has the right to stay on the board of governors until January 2028. And Powell has said he's not going anywhere until this criminal investigation is in complete finality. So trust me, okay? Besant is talking to Trump and he's telling him, drop the case. Figure out a way to get the case dropped. I'll get your own pal off the board and you'll get a twofer. You'll have Warshin as Fed Chair and then you'll get to pick another Steve Moran look alike as a Fed governor. And so to me, that's what I think is the most likely outcome. And we'll see if I'm right about it.
- [37:15]
B
But the only thing, I'm not 100% sure if you're right, you're talking about Scott Besant like he's gonna be the voice of reason. And I thought he was going to be the. When Scott Besant got the job, did
- [37:27]
A
he punch out Kevin Hassett today? Someone told me he was in a fistfight with Kevin Hassett. Is that true?
- [37:32]
B
I do not know if that's true.
- [37:34]
A
Do you think Scott could take Kevin in a fight? I mean, just asking, as a high schooler, what do you think in terms
- [37:39]
B
of people in very, very powerful positions? Something that I've noticed about Scott Besant that's unlike any other very powerful person. He's absolutely charmless. Right. There could be powerful people who, you know, I don't necessarily agree with them, but they Know how to win over a crowd. They know how to be really charming. He is charm less now, he's wildly qualified for the job, but I've been shocked on the downside and definitely sort of the social media universe had killed me over it. Saying, you said he was gonna be good for the job. I never said he was gonna be good. I said he was gonna be qualified, which he is. But he's really represented himself to just be such a Trump yes man. Think about all the TV interviews he did with those teeth. Chat, chat, chat, chat, chattering as he's defending tariff policies that he knew made absolutely no sense, but he was performing for an audience of one. So when you're saying, here's how he's breaking it down to Trump and getting rational with him, I'd like to believe that. I just don't know if that's the case because there's lots of evidence that would refute that.
- [38:40]
A
Over the last year, Bessant, you know, tried to punch out Musk. I heard he's beating up on Hassett. My guess is that Bessant's gonna muscle himself in here.
- [38:50]
B
He's been good at that and he's
- [38:52]
A
gonna try to help get a resolution here. We'll see what happens. Where are rates at the end of the year?
- [38:56]
B
Wait, it's funny that you say that. On Monday of this week, I think it was at the Semaphore conference, Besson actually said, maybe rates don't need to get cut right now. And I was like, did I hear that right?
- [39:08]
A
Well, because they've got no vote. Even the governors that they put into place, Chris Waller said, I'm sorry, look at the data. I have to agree with Chairman Powell. If you looked at the Fed minutes and the discussion in the meeting about lowering rates, nobody wants to lower the rate. So what is percent going to say? Yes, I'm talking about end of the year. What do you think happens?
- [39:31]
B
I really don't know. I mean, I really don't know, in part because how much longer are we going to get the data? How much longer are we going to trust the data? And now you could argue we may need to recalculate, reformulate the way we measure certain things. Right. The fact that every single month we have giant revisions to the jobs number could tell us maybe we need to change how we're measuring things. But I don't know where rates are going to go. I really, really don't. You?
- [39:56]
A
I think they're going lower.
- [39:58]
B
I hope they are.
- [39:59]
A
Yeah. I think they're going to go lower because I think once Warsh is in the job, I think he's got an Ozie to Trump for at least one, possibly two 25 basis point cuts. And if he doesn't do that, there's going to be holy hell to pay. And so he'll just go ahead and do that and he'll figure out a way to coax and strong arm the board of governors into it. And if he picks up Powell's seat, it'll be a lot easier for him.
- [40:23]
B
Do you think Kevin Warch is going to be such a Trump yes man, though? I don't.
- [40:28]
A
I think the first two decisions will be Trump Yesy like is what I think. Then he's gonna be more independent than that after the first couple of decisions. That's what I think.
- [40:38]
B
You're probably right. But I think you, like, a lot of people are like, ah, the war's gonna be over. The war is not like the trade war. Right? When Trump wanted to say, like, okay, maybe I'm not gonna do tariffs here or tariffs there. Every other stakeholder in the trade war was like, yes, please, let's not do this. That's not the case with the war in Iran. Right. So, so he can BS Maria Bartiromo on Fox News and say like, the war is basically over. The war is not basically over. Maybe it could be right. In the last week when, when Iran realized their ultimate power, which was the power they have over the Strait of Hormuz, Trump BS's US and says, oh, we're going to work on maybe co running the Strait of Hormuz. We're going to collect that toll together where there's absolutely no evidence backing that up. I hope that your optimism is right that, oh, the war's almost over. Maybe it is, but I think day in and day out, there's evidence to the contrary and more concerning. We're not dealing with a rational actor. Right. Iran and their regime, which has not gone anywhere, if anything, they've gotten more draconian. You now got a supreme leader who lost his father, who lost the rest of his family, and he shares the same political ideals. And it's a country that has proven itself to say we don't mind crushing our own people and our economy. I think saying the war is going to be over is easier said than done.
- [42:01]
A
Well, I just want to stipulate that. I think it's going to be more complicated than that. I think it's going to hurt the economy more, but I think it's going to get offset by these corporate profits and the Capex cycle. And I think so the poor people are going to get hurt and the richer people are gonna ride the market is what I think.
- [42:18]
B
I think you're right.
- [42:18]
A
So we'll see. But listen, you are awesome. I appreciate you coming from the Trump Hotel or the former Trump Hotel in D.C. and I was gonna put my sunglasses on because the glint coming off the gold in that room was quite distracting during this podcast.
- [42:34]
B
Well, I'm in D.C. for a conference, but I'm also in D.C. because come June, I'm leaving the 11th hour on Ms. I'm staying at the network, but I am launching a morning show and a morning show that's going to focus on money, power and politics. And while you and I don't do a lot of TV together because 11pm is past your bedtime, we know at your advanced age you need that beauty sleep. But come June, when I launch this morning show, I sure hope you're gonna join me.
- [42:57]
A
Such a takedown. Let me just pick myself up off
- [43:00]
B
the floor because sometimes when people wonder who's better, New Jersey or Long island, they need to get reminded it's New Jersey.
- [43:10]
A
Okay? Just remember the Statue of Liberty's ass in your face. We get to see her face. Don't you forget that I told Jon Bon Jovi that one night. Shut him right down. Okay. She's breaking wind at New Jersey. That's all I have to say. Take care, Stephanie.
- [43:25]
B
Adios. Thanks for having me.
- [43:27]
A
All right. Lots of love. Okay, we will be back next week with Katty K. Thank you guys for joining the rest of Politics us. If you want to be a founding member, you can sign up at the rest is politicsus.com to be a founding member? Burr and Stephanie, whether she likes it or not, you will be back, Stephanie.
- [43:44]
B
I look forward to it.
- [43:45]
A
Thank you again.
- [43:45]
B
See ya.
- [43:46]
A
All right.