183. Trump Wants Out - But Iran Won’t Let Him

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Politics: US - Episode 183

Title: Trump Wants Out - But Iran Won’t Let Him
Hosts: Anthony Scaramucci ("The Mooch"), Katty Kay
Date: May 4, 2026

---

Episode Overview

This episode revolves around two major themes:

1. The intensifying crisis between the US and Iran, with Donald Trump seeking to claim victory and exit the conflict, but facing reluctance and escalation from Iran—and the implications for US politics and global strategy.
2. A deep dive into the Democratic Senate primaries in Maine and Michigan, representing broader currents of Democratic populism, generational change, and challenges of authenticity, scandal, and attack narratives in a shifting political era.

Throughout, Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci (“the Mooch”) blend inside-White House insights with broader analysis of America's domestic and international standing, election dynamics, and the struggle over presidential legacy.

---

1. Iran Crisis: Trump’s Dilemma

[02:33 – 36:27]

Current Situation and White House Tensions

• Breaking news: Confusion over whether Iranian ships fired on American vessels or UAE-marked tankers. ([02:39])
• Katty sets the stage: “Donald Trump is stuck between war and peace and he is trying to get out, but it’s not clear that the Iranians are going to let him get out.”
• The White House assumes Iranian economic distress will drive them to negotiation, but some experts warn it could push Iran toward escalation.
• Operation Freedom was meant to “liberate” stuck tankers in the Strait of Hormuz; risk of rapid escalation highlighted.

Four Policy Options for Trump

Anthony breaks down four options for the President ([05:41]):

1. Declare Victory & Accept a Deal
   • Possibly lowering Iranian uranium enrichment rates below bomb capability.
   • “Obviously, Bibi Netanyahu will go crazy about that. So will the hawks. So will the UAE.”
2. Squeeze and Hold the Blockade
   • Maintaining naval pressure without engaging, compared to the Suez Crisis.
   • “Is this the end of the US superpower? … It’s definitely not that … [US still has] incredible military capability.”
3. Escalate Strikes
   • Resume bombing, especially oil infrastructure, to force Iran back to talks.
   • Trump resists, knowing the war is unpopular: “This is more unpopular than the Vietnam War at the peak of the Vietnam War.”
4. Multilateralize the Crisis
   • Bring in China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the EU to share the burden and risk.

Conclusion: None of the options truly appeal to Trump, which explains ongoing muddling and indecision. ([08:10])

Pressure from Within: Vance vs Rubio vs Pentagon

• Internal split: JD Vance wants blocade negotiations; Marco Rubio sides more with the UAE, seeking strong, tangible results.
• Rubio's camp fears a “piece of paper” deal; wants to avoid leaving Iran’s regime intact for future threats.

Naval Escalation and Operation Freedom’s Dilemmas

• Ship owners won’t risk valuable tankers without real naval escorts—OP Freedom’s call-in system is insufficient.
• Risk of escalation remains high, with even minor incidents—accidental or not—potentially forcing Trump’s hand.
• The multilateral approach struggles because China, while weathering the crisis, isn’t poised to displace the US, as the US once displaced the UK in the Suez era.

The Personal Dynamic: Trump’s Psyche and Responses

• Scaramucci role-plays how advisors must pitch to Trump:
  • “You can’t lay out ideas by lecturing him… minute you say, you know, I know better than you, let me explain this to you—he doesn’t like that. The conversation’s over.” ([05:40])
• “It’s got to be pictures of himself… frontally… for some reason, he likes the way he looks straight on.” ([12:12])

Notable Quotes

• Katty (as Trump): “No boots on the ground. I don’t want any more shooting. I want to claim victory, whatever. … I campaigned on not having a forever war.” ([15:09])
• Anthony: “He needs a deal he can sell and call perfect, because that’s his personality.” ([24:17])

The Obama Deal Retrospective

• Katty itemizes the costs of Trump’s approach compared to remaining in the JCPOA (Obama deal):
  • $125 billion in fighting, depleted munitions, hits to US prestige, more deaths—none of which would have occurred under the original deal. ([17:54])

Political Fallout:

• Trump’s focus on vanity projects, instead of lowering prices or addressing core voter concerns, is described as self-sabotage.
• “If people’s pocketbooks were going well, I think he could get away with a lot of this other stuff.” ([21:20])
• Expectation of midterm punishment akin to 2006 for George W. Bush: “He’s caught up in his own vanity projects… critical mass moment where attempts to focus on legacy clash with what voters want.” ([21:20–22:21])

---

2. The Trump Legacy and the Remaking of Washington

[25:47 – 36:27]

Trump’s Monument Mania

• Trump’s drive to name and gild things in his honor reaches new heights:
  • Arc de Trump, painting the Old Executive Office Building, passport redesigns, attempts at currency signatures.
  • “He wants to put his name on the Washington Monument… The National Garden of American Heroes, paving over the Rose Garden, putting his name Viktor Orban style in the passports.” ([29:53])
• Katty: “Who names things in their own time? Emperors and kings and autocrats.” ([34:40])

The Impact on American Brand

• Scaramucci: “It’s the greatest brand destruction I’ve ever effing seen in 18 months.” ([32:39])
• Reagan and Eisenhower understood American identity as belonging to “an idea,” not a single incumbent:
  • “We were at our best when we used our military in restraint, as opposed to this forward, aggressive, unilateral approach.” ([35:23])

Legacy and International Standing

• Katty: Some actions may be permanent—ballrooms, reflecting pool, Arc de Trump—remaking the capital; erasing is costly and unlikely.
• Many Republican voters disapprove, wishing Trump would focus on their economic concerns, not personal vanity.

---

3. Democratic Senate Primaries: Populism, Scandal, and Generational Change

[38:46 – 51:43]

General Outlook

• Hosts believe 2026 and perhaps 2028 look promising for Democrats if current trends continue. ([38:46])
• Center on whether Democrats can retake the House and the more challenging Senate, needing four seats to secure a majority.

Maine: Graham Platner vs Susan Collins

• Janet Mills, the establishment Democratic favorite, withdraws; Graham Platner, a populist, surges. ([39:18])
• Platner’s profile:
  • Anti-oligarchy, anti-income inequality, culturally conservative (opposes assault weapons ban, moderate on ICE).
  • Scandal: Nazi tattoo from youth, excused as ignorant mistake/PTSD; right-wing gleeful at attack potential.
  • Anthony: “Platner thing, for me, I’m worried about it… Trump is a Nazi, Elon Musk is a bad guy, blah blah blah, but now we’re supporting a guy with a Nazi symbol on his chest…” ([42:29])
• Katty: Platner’s mix of populism and conservatism fits Maine’s working-class, generational mood, but risks blowback, especially generational and authenticity-driven politics.

Michigan: A Test Case for Youth, Progressivism, and Identity

• Gary Peters, the incumbent, steps down: open field for a key seat.
• Primary among:
  • Haley Stevens (establishment),
  • Mallory McMorrow (centrist/“everywoman”),
  • Abdul El-Sayed (progressive, opposed to Gaza war aid, major support among Michigan’s diverse communities).
• El-Sayed’s candidacy provokes fears of Republican wedge attacks—especially given Islamophobia, as noted by Anthony ([50:00]):
  • “His name is Muslim and he’s running against a Republican Party that loves white supremacists… That’s a whistle, ladies and gentlemen, and I find it disgusting and reprehensible.”
• Analysis: What was once disqualifying (youthful posts, names, inexperience) can now be reframed as “authenticity.” Social media presence and handling past scandals is now central.

Critical Reflections

• Katty: “We’re in a kind of a sea change moment where being an established candidate, being the incumbent may not be the guarantee of re-election… new generation of people coming into politics.” ([47:37])
• Anthony: “The world is upside down and we’re in a situation now where what used to matter on your resume doesn’t matter anymore. … What matters is how much punch do you have in social media?” ([51:06])

---

4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s psyche and advisers:
  • “You can’t lay out the ideas by lecturing him or sounding smarter than him… He doesn’t like that. The conversation’s over.” (Anthony, [05:41])
  • “It’s got to be pictures of himself and it has to be frontally. You can’t show the President from the side. … He likes the way he looks straight on.” (Anthony, [12:11])
• On Operation Freedom and escalation risk:
  • “This is a difficult time for him. Except maybe he doesn’t care because actually he’s not going to be on the ticket.” (Katty, [10:52])
• On legacy and self-branding:
  • “I am not convinced he doesn’t put his name on the Washington Monument… He’s trying to get his visage on currency, which is likely to be illegal.” (Anthony, [29:53])
  • “Who names things in their own time? Emperors and kings and autocrats.” (Katty, [34:40])

---

5. Key Segment Timestamps

| Time | Segment/Topic | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------| | 02:19 | Episode begins, context-setting on Trump/Iran | | 04:57 | Trump’s psychology/response mindset | | 05:41 | The four White House options on Iran | | 08:10 | Friction: Vance vs Rubio, operation complications | | 12:11 | Insights into Trump’s need for visual/ego affirmation| | 15:05 | Katty “roleplaying” Trump—victory and withdrawal | | 17:54 | Comparing costs: JCPOA vs. Trump’s Iran strategy | | 21:20 | Vanity projects vs. economic pressures | | 29:53 | Trump’s efforts to rename buildings/monuments | | 35:23 | Scaramucci: The American identity & military restraint| | 38:46 | Democrats’ prospects, Senate races intro | | 41:39 | Maine primary: Platner’s rise, controversies | | 47:37 | Generational change & “authenticity” in politics | | 49:59 | Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed and the identity attacks | | 51:43 | Social media’s dominance, conclusions |

---

Conclusion

Big Themes:

• Trump faces a classic “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” foreign/military crisis, pressured by internal forces (Vance, Rubio, Pentagon) and external risks (Iranian responses, Chinese hesitation).
• His domestic standing is eroding as his attention fixates on legacy and grandeur, not public priorities—a tension the Democrats may effectively exploit.
• Democratic primaries showcase generational change, rising populism, and cultural conflicts within both parties—where authenticity, scandal management, and social media are king.

Memorable Line:
Anthony: “It’s the greatest brand destruction I’ve ever effing seen in 18 months.” ([32:39])

Final Reflection:
This episode underscores the volatility and spectacle of current US politics: a president torn between retreat and escalation, legacy and leadership, as a new generation vies to inherit the future amid changing norms—and with the rest of the world watching closely.

Transcript

[Katy Tur]

This episode is brought to you by whoop.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Whoop is one of my favorite all time products. It's clear we're living through pretty stressful times right now. It's easy to underestimate how much that can affect our sleep and ability to stay focused day to day.

[Katy Tur]

Yeah, avoiding burnout can feel like a full time job in and of itself.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Whoop helps with the bit people miss that shows what actually is going on beneath the surface. It's a screenless, wearable device that monitors your sleep recovery, lifestyle and stress.

[Katy Tur]

Yeah, and this matters to me. It even looks very elegant.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Did you hear that guys? Whoop is so stylish that even Caddy K will wear the whoop.

[Katy Tur]

It's the little gold clasp. I like that.

[Anthony Zurcher]

I'm telling you, I had no idea how much my old routine was impacting my health. But since using Whoop and making those small adjustments, I've already started to feel the difference. Better sleep, clearer thinking even more energy.

[Katy Tur]

Head to join.wh-oop.com politics to get started with Whoop today, Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile.

[Ryan Reynolds]

I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to [e-mail]

[Katy Tur]

Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full [e-mail] Some follow the noise.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Bloomberg follows the money because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money and when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe [e-mail].

[Katy Tur]

Welcome to the Rest is Politics Us with me Kata K in Washington where we're missing the King Anthony. The city is feeling less regal at the moment, but Donald Trump is trying to fix that. So we'll talk about that later.

[Anthony Zurcher]

I feel like the King has got to be very happy with himself right now. I feel like that was quite triumphant.

[Katy Tur]

I heard via somebody that the palace is happy. Yes. So good. The King is happy. He's at home. Donald Trump is less happy, he's also at home but trying to make Washington look a lot more regal. We're going to talk about that. First of all, we're going to talk about the war in Iran and the latest, a little bit of confusion this morning about who's shooting at who. And then in the second half, we're going to talk about Democrats and the Maine and Michigan Senate primaries, which show different sides of Democratic populism at work, which is kind of interesting. But let's start with where we are this morning on Iran. There was some breaking news. I was just came back from Morning Joe and there's some breaking news about Iranian ships, Iranians possibly firing on American ships and a UAE marked tanker, and some confusion about what exactly happened. But I think we are in a moment where Donald Trump is stuck between war and peace and he is trying to get out, but it's not clear that the Iranians are going to let him get out. And there is an assumption in the White House that economic desperation will, will make the Iranians come to the table and negotiate. And it's possible that that's the case. They are putting forward proposals that so far have been rejected. But there's also a possibility that I'm hearing from Iran experts, which is that economic desperation actually makes the Iranians lash out, which could lead to escalation. And I think what's interesting about what we saw today after Donald Trump had announced this on Operation Freedom, to try and get these tankers out of the Straits of Hormuz and liberate them so they can go back to their countries because they've been stuck there now for a couple of months. What we saw today was an indication of how quickly things can happen when you're in a war situation, which whatever the president says, America's in a war situation and you don't quite know which way it's going to go, you can have unintended consequences. And it's possible that the warship was not struck. It's possible that these were warning shots fired by the Iranians. But it's possible that this carries on and we do get somebody being struck and then you get retaliation and then you get escalation. Meanwhile, gas prices going up, the president's approval ratings going down. Where is Donald Trump and where's his head this Monday morning? Antony, do you think?

[Anthony Zurcher]

I think he's waiting for something that crosses his field of vision. That's instinctually a good idea. And I don't think he has it yet. So I don't think Trump is sitting there reading briefing books or he's doing anything but playing golf and working on arcs day Trump and ballrooms and thinking what other things he's going to end up naming. I don't think that. So one of the things that is going to happen here is somebody's going to get to him and is going to lay out a few good ideas. And remember, with Donald Trump, you can't lay out the ideas by lecturing him or sounding smarter than him or the minute you say to him, you know, I know better than you. Let me explain this to you.

[Katy Tur]

He doesn't like that.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yeah, the conversation's over. So to me, I see four different frames here, and I'll just mention all four of them briefly. And please react. One, he declares victory. He takes whatever deal is in front of him that's being offered. And there is some discussion that the enrichment numbers are going to go down to 3.5, 3.6%, which is below nuclear bomb activity in Iran. That's number one. Obviously, Bibi Netanyahu will go crazy about that. So will the hawks.

[Katy Tur]

So with the uae, by the way.

[Anthony Zurcher]

So with the uae, Two, squeeze and hold the blockade. Okay? And that's sort of the Gulf of Tonkin situation. It's not the Suez, in my opinion. I was in London last week, had the opportunity to speak with a former retired admiral, the British Navy. He was drawing comparisons to the Suez Canal crisis. And just to remind everybody, Eisenhower stopped the French and stop the British Navy from executing a plan on Nasser. He was in the middle of an election, and he didn't want the fight with the Soviets over that issue in the Middle East. And that caused a capitulation of both France and Great Britain. And some people say that was the end of Great Britain as a superpower. And the question is, is this the end of the US Superpower? And again, this is not an American centric view. This is me being as realistic as possible. It's not that, because the US still has this incredible military capability and this very large control of the world, given its dollar hegemony status and the size of its economy. So it's definitely not that. That's second option. Caddy. Third option is you start striking again. You start bombing people and taking out some of the oil infrastructure and then see if you can get them back to the table after doing that. I don't think Trump actually wants to do that because his instincts are that this is such an unpopular war. Gaddy. This is more unpopular than the Vietnam War at the peak of the Vietnam War. Last option is try possibly to make it a multilateral problem where you're bringing in As I said earlier, China, India, Japan and South Korea and even possibly the euro. But to me, those are the options on the table. Trump doesn't like any of those options. Katty. Okay. And so that's why we're sitting here muddling along.

[Katy Tur]

I think those are the options. Basically this will end through negotiation or through escalation. That is the way that conflicts end. Escalation Donald Trump doesn't want. But I'm not ruling it off the table. I think there are still hawks, as you and I have said in the administration and in the Pentagon who want this to continue. I was texting this morning with somebody who speaks to the President pretty regularly who said, you know, the tussle is actually between Vance and the Pentagon, but also between Vance and Rubio. Rubio is more in the UAE camp, which is we have to make sure we finish this and can walk away with something that actually looks like victory and is not just a kind of piece of paper that says the Iranians aren't going to do something which they may well end up going to do. He's more kind of long termist about this, that you can't leave a regime in place that is whatever we do now going to then still develop a nuclear weapon or try to 10, 20 years down the line. So I think that is one option, the calling victory. That is clearly what Trump would like to do to be able to frame this as a victory. But, but that's where I think the events of this morning make it more complicated. If he's going to carry on this Operation Freedom shipping experts are already telling every reporter who will call them, we are not going to go through just because the President tells us it's okay to go through. We're not going to go through the straits because our ships are too expensive, they're worth too much money for us. We need a naval escort and the President doesn't want to do a naval escort. His initial thinking was we're going to announce a naval escort. And then he watered it down. And now it's this sort of Central Command idea of a call center basically where you can call in and find out where the best lane is. But I think there is a risk with that that this either just fizzles out, this big announcement that he had over the weekend of a kind of we're going to have this Operation Freedom, or if it carries on, there is a serious risk of some kind of escalation. The multilateral thing you've been saying for a while they need to get the Chinese on board. It's possible that they bring the Chinese on board. It's also possible that the Chinese are sitting back because they still have some reserves at the moment. They've been able to weather this better than some people thought they would at the beginning. They have reserves for longer. So do the Chinese get involved in the way that the President does? And if the Chinese do get involved in the long term, is that actually great for America anyway? I mean, I think you're right about Suez. This is not Suez. And the difference with Suez is that the British Empire was basically replaced by the American empire. It was the Americans saying, don't do this because we're the new kid in town. The Chinese have not yet come along and said, okay, leave this one to us. This is over the American century. We've got this now. You've proven yourselves to be unreliable allies, unreliable trading partners, unreliable when it comes to stability. So we're going to take your position. I'm not hearing that from the Chinese yet. So Donald Trump is in this position that he doesn't want to be in and his approval ratings, poll after poll. And yeah, you always have to be careful of one approval rating. But there is not an approval rating out there at the moment that shows that his approval rating is getting any better. This is a difficult time for him. Except maybe he doesn't care because actually he's not going to be on the ticket. His name is not on the ballot. So.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yeah, well, I've stipulated that.

[Katy Tur]

Yeah, we've said that, you know, we

[Anthony Zurcher]

should get into the Vance Rubio thing. Yes, he's destroying Vance and soon he'll turn his gun sights Ontario. But I'm back to the role playing caddy. I'm sorry, couldn't resist myself.

[Katy Tur]

Okay, Monday morning, limbering up.

[Anthony Zurcher]

I've been thinking about this over the weekend and you're the President.

[Katy Tur]

Oh great. I'm right there.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Okay, I'm going to make my pitch. Okay, you ready?

[Katy Tur]

Mm.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Because this is how the President gets stuff. This is like a 45 second pitch. I got to talk quickly because I know you don't have a lot of attention.

[Katy Tur]

That's quite long. Can you not make it 15 seconds?

[Anthony Zurcher]

All right, we're going to try though. Okay.

[Katy Tur]

Do we have any cartoons or pictures?

[Anthony Zurcher]

Remember, remember what I said, if you're gonna show the President pictures.

[Katy Tur]

Yeah.

[Anthony Zurcher]

It's gotta be pictures of himself and it has to be frontally. You can't show the President from the side. Cuz I have been with him where he complains he looks too Fat. Well, look at me from this angle. No, no. Looks too fat. But for some reason, he likes the way he looks straight on.

[Katy Tur]

He's been putting pictures of himself on Truth Social, floating in the new reflecting pool in a swimming trunk. So he's clearly feeling good about how he looks at the.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yeah, well, I mean, look, this part of the mania.

[Katy Tur]

Nothing like AI to get you down a few pounds.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Guys got a little bit of mania going. But here's the pitch, okay?

[Katy Tur]

Okay.

[Anthony Zurcher]

You got to start out with the praise. So no other president in the last 40 years would have ordered this strike. Obama wouldn't. Biden wouldn't. You did. You took out most of their hardware.

[Katy Tur]

They were weak. I'm strong.

[Anthony Zurcher]

They were weak. You're a military genius. Okay.

[Katy Tur]

Kind of liking this role.

[Anthony Zurcher]

But, Mr. President, listen to me. We can't leave it here because you don't want the headline to be Trump bombed Iran and it didn't work. Okay? And now here comes the story, because you got to tell him a story. Caddy can't just be pedantic. So you got to tell them about the tanker war in 1987 through 1988. Do you remember the tanker war, Caddy?

[Katy Tur]

I remember the tanker war.

[Anthony Zurcher]

So what basically happened quickly in the tanker war is that we started reflagging tankers, and when the Iranians went to strike those tankers, we started decimating and annihilating their military and their navy to the point where the original Khomeini, he surrendered and he ended the war, which also contemporaneously ended the Iran Iraq war. They called it drinking from a poison chalice. Okay, so staying in the region got the deal.

[Katy Tur]

And so you've already lost my attention. This has gone on for too long, and it's been too historical. Sorry, Mr. Adviser, I need you to. I need you to say a little bit more about me.

[Anthony Zurcher]

You probably are right about that. Okay, so let's cut right to the chase. Okay, Mr. President, I want you to leave because he likes the word holes. I want you to leave the holes in the Gulf, okay? This is like one of their buzzwords in the Navy, like, war fighters. You know, instead of saying ships, they like the word hulls. Okay, so hulls in the Gulf, Okay? And I want there to be forces adjacent to the enrichment sites, which is a polite way of saying, I want to put troops in. Because, Mr. President, you like toys. And I know. I know you like this idea, because they're already there. The Marine Expeditionary Force is there. Let's put 100,000 troops in the area and let's own the choke point for the next 15 years. And now everybody, China, Japan, Korea, India, everybody has to call you to get their oil. And you say what? Caddy?

[Katy Tur]

No boots on the ground.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Tell me why.

[Katy Tur]

Because I don't want any more shooting. I don't want any more fighting. I'm done. I want to talk about the arc to Trump. I want to talk about the ballroom. I'm bored of Iran. Never want to hear you say the word again. And I want to claim victory, whatever. And I don't want troops there forever because then you know what the newspapers will say? The lamestream media is going to say that this is a forever war. And I campaigned on not having a forever war.

[Anthony Zurcher]

You're going back to option one.

[Katy Tur]

I'm going back to option one. He declares victory somehow.

[Anthony Zurcher]

And how does he handle Netanyahu, his lone ally now, if he was serious

[Katy Tur]

about wanting to use force again every time the Iranians present him, why, how many deadlines has he pushed back now? Five times he's pushed back deadlines. He's had multiple attempts when you'd think he would have given up at peace negotiations. He's trying this because he wants to choke them economically. He can just about handle them choking them economically. But I think he really doesn't want to escalate with boots on the ground. I may be wrong. I think we're in this position where he's weighing this up. And if there is some kind of an incident in the Gulf because of this blockade against a blockade, then I think he may be forced into taking some sort of action. If American warships are fired on, and God forbid if any American sailors were hurt even worse, then I think he has no choice but to escalate. Then he'll have to do it, but he's gonna try everything he can not to in the meantime and he wants out of there.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Let's go to that decision tree. I had that as the number one choice, if you remember. Right, so they have a 14 point plan from Iran. I think these are non negotiable caddy, but tell me if you disagree. The 400 kg of highly enriched uranium has to leave Iranian soil. Maybe Trump will even accept Putin having it. Okay, it could be physically removed to Russia. The strait reopens before the sanctions lift, not simultaneously. We don't trust you guys. So we've got to keep the sanctions on. And there's a 20 year nuclear freeze, not 15. So you take all 14 of those points, the three that I just mentioned, I believe that the Iranians would take. Okay? It gives Iran what they actually need. End of the war, lifts the blockade, it unfreezes some assets. Okay. And it drops the demand, at least for now, to dismantle the nuclear infrastructure. So, again, this is the worst version of the jcpoa. And said differently, please answer the following question. Had the Obama deal just stayed in place, would that have been better for the United States and better for the world economy and better for all parties there, too?

[Katy Tur]

Okay, so it wouldn't have cost $125 billion in fighting, which the Secretary of Defense said told Congress that it cost at the end of last week. So you'd have saved that money. It wouldn't have depleted America's stock of munitions, which has been seriously depleted. You wouldn't have had American army bases in the region hit. And apparently the reporting is coming out at the moment that they've been much worse hit than we were led to believe. So you wouldn't have had that. You obviously wouldn't have lost the lives of the Americans who have been involved in this. And we don't know how many injured because the Pentagon won't tell us how many injured. You wouldn't have had the losses of life that you've had in Iran. You wouldn't have had a school being hit and children being killed in those strikes. You wouldn't have had the loss of American prestige around the world. You wouldn't have increased the rift between the Americans and the Europeans, which was bad and has now got a lot worse. And you would have been in the same position where Iran was not producing nuclear material. And actually, under the jcpoa, when it was still operating, the inspectors were going in regularly and saying, no, the Iranians were not in violation. They sped up their uranium production after America pulled out of the jcpoa. So I don't know which of those sounds like it would have been worse than the situation we're in now. The counterargument that I have heard from Republicans on the Hill who are Trump aligned is, well, we've decimated their missile supplies, so we've made it harder for them to attack their neighbors. They weren't really attacking their neighbors at that point anyway. And they've still got half of their missile supply, according to intelligence sources, which they're keeping underground. So we haven't decimated their missile supply, but we've set them back economically. We may have increased the clout of the hardliners in the regime and given the regime an extended lease of life. So you tell Me, Antony, is there anything that I've just ticked off that sounds to you like it would have been worse?

[Anthony Zurcher]

There's nothing, nothing that you said. But I guess my follow up question caddy is how does he get away with this? Meaning how does the Fox News echo chamber and still all of these people beating the drum for him, how do they look at you with a straight face and say, yeah, well, this is better than the Obama deal. So in other words, we hate Obama, everything Obama stands for. So that's fine, he's out. We have the great white supremacists in and so anything he says is okay. How does he get away with it?

[Katy Tur]

Gaddy Trump, who has now taken to posting truth social photographs from the Obama era which don't even say Barack Hussein Obama now just say Hussein Obama photographs of his bits of Washington under his time. So I don't think he does get away with it in the sense that there's going to be a massive rejection of this. It looks like in the midterm elections and when voters go to the polls. The reason voters are pissed off with this, I think they would tolerate what's happening in the Gulf if they felt the president had been laser focused on the job description that they gave him when they voted for him. And the job description he was given was very clear from the American public. Bring down prices, make our economic situation better and then you can do your other stuff. But the problem he's getting is that he's not focused on the job description he was given. So I was talking to a Republican strategist this morning who said this is going to be like the 2006 midterms were George W. Bush's second term. He's caught up in the Middle east. He's not doing enough to focus on what people want at home. And you get a change election in 2008 and you get something very different. I think that's where we are. We've got a president who is caught up in the Middle east, who is caught up in his own vanity projects and we can run through them because as I I've been struck. Tony Pastor at Goal Hanger sent us both a story from the FT about the number of things Trump is trying to name in his honor. And I suddenly looked at it. The New York Times, the Atlantic, Politico have all done similar stories in the last week because we're getting to critical mass moment where the president's attempts to focus on his legacy in physical buildings is clashing up against what voters wanted from him. So they're not going to forgive him for going to Rome because he's not dealing with prices. They're not going to really forgive him for talking about the ballroom because he's not dealing with prices. If he was dealing with prices, if people's pocketbooks were going well, I think he could get away with a lot of this other stuff.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Is Obama a popular figure among the Democrats right now?

[Katy Tur]

Yeah, I think he is a popular. Well, polls suggest amongst Democrats, he's routinely the most popular Democrat.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Okay, so why aren't the Democrats saying the following then? That Obama may have gotten a flawed deal, but he did freeze the program. Trump is being offered a worse deal and it doesn't even pretend to freeze the program. So why aren't they comparing and contrasting Obama's legacy and the ideas behind what he was doing to what Trump just did?

[Katy Tur]

So I think you will hear that when Trump comes up with a deal. But at the moment, the deal situation, the 14 point plan being proposed by the Iranian, the 10 point plan being proposed by the Americans, the different plans is very confusing for people to understand. If you asked most Americans, where are we in the war, they wouldn't really know. Are we in a war? Are we not in a war? Is there a peace plan on the table? What does that peace plan involve? Are we bombing? Is the Straits of Hormuz open? Is it not open? The situation is sufficiently murky that I think if I was a Democratic strategist at this point, I would say leave this to the administration, literally. Oil prices are going up, his approval ratings are going down. Let them swim in this one. And then if a deal is announced and it's on the front pages of the paper and it's clear what the deal is, at that point, you can point out the difference between the President's deal and the president's deal. 44's deal and 47's deal with the

[Anthony Zurcher]

Republicans had impeached Barack Obama for a deal like the one that Trump is going to get?

[Katy Tur]

No, because I don't think the one that Trump is going to get is going to be terribly different from the one that Obama got. So I don't think that if impeached

[Anthony Zurcher]

him for it, okay? But I just think they would be raising. They would be raising holy hell. Trump said it was the worst deal ever.

[Katy Tur]

Trump talks in superlatives. People discount that.

[Anthony Zurcher]

There are two numbers that I think people should focus on and one of them is $3.50 and the other one is $5. And let me tell you what those two numbers are those are the potential gas prices coming into the summer. So if you get a deal by Memorial Day, gas probably goes back under 350. Okay, maybe takes a little while, but Trump ended the war. Will be the narrative that runs through November in an effort to try to help the Republicans hold the House. If you get no deal, okay, and gas goes to $5 and stays there, I think you have a recession risk. And I think cable news is not going to react too friendly to Trump going into November. And you could have that 30 seats that you and I always talk about being in play could shift to the Democrats. So, you know, he doesn't need a perfect deal, but he needs a deal that he can sell and call perfect because that's his personality. Okay. And so those are the things that I think are happening. And how long do you think the U.S. navy, because that was another good trade that they made over the weekend. They said the US Navy's gonna escort the ships. It influenced oil prices. And of course, there were traders right there take advantage of the announcements that were coming again on the Sunday leading into the market activity on Monday. But how long do you think that the US Navy is going to be, quote unquote, escorting ships through the strait?

[Katy Tur]

I don't think the US Navy is going to be escorting ships through the strait. I think they're going to be telling ships which lanes are safe. But I don't think you're going to be seeing actual Navy ships doing an escort, which is what it would take to get the ships through. That's something, especially after this morning where even if it was just warning shots that were fired, they're going to be very wary about that. Trump wanted that, but he seems to have been talked down from doing it. But I think this goes on beyond Memorial Day, which is the end of this month, three or four weeks time. I think we could still be in this kind of Cold War standoff. Should we talk about what Trump wants to be talking about, Anthony? Because this is not what Trump wants to be talking about. Trump actually wants to be talking about whether he is a great man of American history. And what do great men of American history do. They build stuff in their image. So he got rid of the king, but he's going to cover everything in gold. And I've just been struck by how many reporters have come up with this story recently. And the best one, which guys, if you haven't read it, is in the Atlantic. We'll post it in our newsletter, which is Trump quoting Hagel. I'm not sure that I don't buy the argument, as they said, that Trump has read Hagel, but that Trump has begun referring to himself as Julius Caesar, Alexander the Great and Napoleon, all men who disrupted their eras and have gone down in history. What is Trump doing still focused on the ballroom, the reflecting pool, the Kennedy center, the United States Institute of Peace, the Arc de Trump, when he knows, Anthony, that that is not what voters elected him to do? And there is no indication that this is going down well with Republican voters.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Okay, so let's step back for a second. So we're in the final vestiges of Trump. Can we stipulate that we've got two and a half years to go?

[Katy Tur]

We've always said he's not running again, he's not going to be president again.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Okay, so we are in the final vestiges of Trump. And does this Trump feel that he's better than Abraham Lincoln and George Washington?

[Katy Tur]

Well, he says he's better than Abraham Lincoln and George Washington.

[Anthony Zurcher]

He thinks he's next level compared to Abraham Lincoln and George Washington. Right. And so does he think that the people around him are smart enough to see how much better he is than Abraham Lincoln and George Washington?

[Katy Tur]

No. That's the problem.

[Anthony Zurcher]

That's the problem.

[Katy Tur]

That's the problem. So he has to make sure he has something there that reminds Americans in, in perpetuity of how great he was. And that's what this is about.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Here is the narrative, and let me give it to everybody in Trump speak. I am the greatest living American, and I am the greatest American that has ever lived. Now, some people are too febrile and some people have low IQs, and when you have a low IQ, you can't see how brilliant I am. And so what I'm going to do, because history is going to judge me so well, I am going to name everything in Washington after me. So when a young school student is coming off the bus and he's touring Washington, he sees my name everywhere and he does some research on me, and he learns that, yes, Mr. Trump was right. While he was sometimes ridiculed by his contemporaries, he was the brilliant man that saved America.

[Katy Tur]

I think that's right. The Hagel comparison is that specifically, those great men of history were people who disrupted things and who maybe even their populations didn't appreciate in the moment. So they were disruptors and aggressive and sometimes obnoxious, and people didn't necessarily appreciate their greatness at the time. And Trump, I'm not sure that Trump sees it quite that way, but Trump certainly likes the idea that you're going to smash things and then people will realize how great you are because, you know, you smashed a lot of stuff.

[Anthony Zurcher]

But, you know, he's gonna paint the Old Executive Office Building. Why am I doing that? Because, you know, I'm trying to go after every single thing that's here in Washington. I am not convinced, and I repeat this, that he doesn't put his name on the Washington Monument, that it's gonna be called the Trump Washington Monument. I'm not convinced of that. I think that's still coming. He's got two years to go. I think that the National Garden of American Heroes, he paved over the Rose Garden, as we all know. But he's also done something where he's putting his name, Viktor Orban style, in the passports. So if you lose your passport, you get a new passport. You're going to have a picture of him menacingly looking at you from your passport. He's got his name on the resident alien courts, you know, there's a picture of him and George Washington together on the resident alien cards. He's trying to get his visage on currency, which is likely to be illegal. Probably would, you know, if someone really wanted to push it, would be challenged with the Supreme Court because supposed to only have dead presidents on the currency, not living ones. He wants to sign the US Dollar. He's upset that Scott Besant and Steven Mnuchin gets their signature on the US Dollar. And by the way, again, Donald Trump speak. I have the. It looks like a cardiac arrest, the one that he's never having his signature, you know, it looks like that, but he thinks it's the most famous signature in the history of the world, and he wants it to grace the US Dollar. So again, no pushback, no John Thune saying, hey, this is against all of our societal norms and you got to walk back from this stuff or we're going to start doing things to you that you're not really going to like. You tell me. Mao renovated Tiananmen Square. Modi has the Vista project in India. Napoleon obviously changed Paris. And Napoleon III went on and changed Paris. Okay, so you tell me, Caddy, like, is there anybody going to stop him from. Or are we going to have everything painted and gold gilded and named after Donald Trump in our universe here in America? And then, and then what does that mean for America? Like, what does that mean exactly? Where, where, where is America? I mean, by the way, it's the greatest brand destruction that I've ever effing seen in 18 months. You know, like how to destroy a brand in 18 months. Let's go to the Harvard Business School and I'll take you through what Donald Trump did to United States of America and its brand internationally over 18 months. But go ahead, Katty.

[Katy Tur]

I have American friends who go to Europe and they say they're Canadians because they don't want to admit that they're Americans at the moment. He's going to do a lot of what you said. Much of it may well be undone, but there's some of the stuff that can't be undone, which is literally remaking America. If he builds the ark to Trump, no one's going to knock it down. He's already knocked the ballroom down, so he's going to have to build something in its place. He's already ripping up the reflecting pool and painting it a kind of brilliant swimming pool blue that he thinks looks like a great American blue. If he paints the Old Executive Building, which is where the vice president works from, it's going to be very difficult for somebody to rip all of that paint off and cost a lot of money. So some of this stuff, he's right. This is permanent and it will change the face of Washington, which is exactly the point of does hurt America's brand around the world. And it is Trump. And I think this is why you see in the polls that this isn't playing well with Republicans, partly because they want him to focus on the job he was meant to do. A bit like when Barack Obama focused on health care reform in 2008. And actually voters said, no, we wanted you to focus on the legacy of 2008 financial crash and make us feel better financially. Love healthcare idea, but this is not what we elected you to do. He's going to be in that position. Not that he cares. His name's not on the ballot. But people are also thinking, this isn't how a president behaves. I mean, this has none of the decorum of a U.S. president. The local airport in Washington, D.C. that you fly into in the center of the city, when I lived here for the first 15 years of living in Washington, it was called National Airport. And then it was changed. The name was changed under George W. Bush to Reagan Airport. That was like almost 20 years after Ronald Reagan had left office. That's the way presidents behave. They don't name things in their own time. Who names things in their own time? Emperors and kings and autocrats. I mean, Trump is literally on the 250th anniversary of America going to have a wrestling fight on the front lawn of the White House. This is like a gladiatorial competition. He's embodying Caesar with a gladiatorial competition. Of course, he's saying, this is all for the 250th anniversary, anniversary of America. And that's how he's taking, he's really taking advantage of this moment in history to say, I'm doing all of this for the 250th anniversary of America. But actually, a lot of it is being doing for him with his name on things, his name on the passports for this year. I think voters won't thank him for it. But as he says, he's not on the ballot box in November, so I'm not sure he cares that much. But it is interesting that what he should be focused on and what he wants to be focused on in this particular moment, they're two very different things.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Katie. The only thing I want to say about the genius of the US Brand, and this is something Reagan Eisenhower understood, is that it belonged to an idea. It didn't belong to an individual or an incumbent. And I think it's very important to understand that we were at our best when we used our defense apparatus and our military in restraint as opposed to this forward, aggressive, unilateral approach. Bush used it unilaterally, didn't work for us. Trump is now using it unilaterally. We were always way better and we were able to build the alliances that are very hard for superpowers to build because we exercise this level of the strength. This is the reason why we were so respected. And we've lost that now. And by the way, it's going to take a long time to respect, rebuild that. I don't, I don't see Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, somebody walking into the White House and saying, hey, sorry for that. And let's go back to whatever we were doing prior to this jackass. No, that's not going to happen.

[Katy Tur]

Joe Biden tried to do that in 2020, and it worked to some extent. But allies, particularly European allies, are not going to trust whoever comes back in because they'll say, that's great, you want to be back, but how do we know that in four years time you're not out and JD Vance isn't back in again, which could well be the case anyway. Okay, we'll take a break and come back and have a quick look at those Democrats.

[Anthony Zurcher]

This episode is brought to you by NordVPN. You know, Caddy Alistair Campbell taught me how to use NORDVPN on a train from Glasgow to London I love this product. I want to be connected as soon as I sit down. But speed can come at a cost to security most of the time. Cyber attacks are not Hollywood style. They're disguised as a fake link, a phishing email, or a public network that looks normal. And NORDVPN protects you from all of that.

[Katy Tur]

I didn't have my NORDVPN switched on recently and I was the subject of a hacking attack. I got an email that I thought was legitimate, I opened it and now I'm very careful about having my NORDVPN switched on. Using NordVPN helps protect my privacy and sensitive data, especially as we're often working on the move or using public Wi

[Anthony Zurcher]

FIs with threat protection pro malicious websites, ads and trackers and phishing attempts are all blocked before they even reach us.

[Katy Tur]

To get the best discount on your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com tripus you you'll get four extra months free on the two year plan, plus a 30 day money back guarantee. The link's in the episode description Mother's

[1-800-Flowers Announcer]

Day has a way of sneaking up on you, but when it does, 1-800-FLowers makes it easy to send mom something beautiful, thoughtful and worthy of everything she does. Right now with double blooms from 1-800-Flowers. Order one dozen roses and get another dozen for free. It's a bigger gesture with fresh, beautiful flowers arranged to make Mother's Day feel as special as she is. Make Mother's Day feel bigger, bigger with double blooms at 1-800-flowers.com Spotify. That's 1-800-Flowers.com Spotify.

[Katy Tur]

Welcome back to the Rest Is Politics. We're going to take a quick look at the Democrats because Anthony and I are increasingly convinced that 2026 is going to be a good year for Democrats and potentially 2028. If things carry on as they are and Brand MAGA is doing as badly as it is, we could be looking at a Democrat in the White House in 2028 as well. Before we get there, let's talk about these elections and the important, really important question at the moment. I think there's a widespread assumption that Democrats are going to take back the House, but the question is, are they going to take back the Senate? And we just wanted to focus on two Senate races that might give us some indication of that. Here's the maths. Democrats need to add four seats to their total. Then they control the Senate as well. The seats that are in play are Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Alaska and Michigan and Maine. And we're going to talk about Michigan and Maine today. Quickly, in Maine, something important happened last week, which is that in the primary and we're still in the primary phase in Maine, there is this guy, Graham Platner, who we've spoken about, ex vet, ex oyster farmer, more on the populist wing of the Democratic Party, you younger. He was up against the sitting governor, Janet Mills, who was going to step down as governor and run for the Senate seat. And last week, in something pretty seismic in Maine politics, Janet Mills pulled out of the race saying she didn't have enough money and she didn't have enough support. It was very interesting because you have establishment Democratic politician who normally would have been a shoe in for the Senate race to be the nominee for the Democratic Party in Maine. And along comes this upstart with no political background, no machinery behind him, and somehow he takes fire. And Democratic voters in Maine think this is the guy we want because he is anti establishment. Young voters in particular like him. So I think Republicans are thrilled that Janet Mills has pulled out because they thought she was a more a harder opponent for them. In Maine, Democrat activists are thrilled that she's pulled out because they like Graham Platner. Graham Platner is a super interesting character, Anthony, because in some ways he's very progressive economically, very progressive against the oligarchy, against income inequality. But he's also pretty in line with Maine, which is a white, quite conservative state. So he opposes, for example, an assault weapons ban. He, he doesn't call for abolishing ice. He just wants some ICE reform. So he's, although he's seen, I think, as being very populist, he's an interesting brand of populism in the Democratic Party. He's different from, say, Mamdani, and he's different from the guy in Michigan who we're going to talk about in a second, too. What do you think of him? Do you think he can win in Maine?

[Anthony Zurcher]

Well, listen, I think it's very hard going up against incumbents. She's a mid-70s person. She has health ailments, but she's got a tremendous amount of money.

[Katy Tur]

Susan Collins, you're talking about the sitting Republican senator?

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yep. Susan's always concerned, never does anything Collins. But I think the Platner thing, for me, I'm worried about it because, you know, he had a Nazi tattoo on his chest. He denies knowing that that was a Nazi symbol when he got the Nazi symbol. Okay. So I want to try to be fair to him as well. But I do think it is a problem. He's a weird guy and he has been generally unstable. He's portraying himself as way more stable today and attributing all that stuff to youth immaturity and all that other stuff

[Katy Tur]

and kind of PTSD from being a veteran.

[Anthony Zurcher]

I was just going to say the ptsd, all that stuff, but I'm worried about him because. Let me give you the narrative, okay? Trump is a Nazi, Elon Musk is a bad guy, blah, blah, blah. You know, we're for the democracy. Oh, but we're now supporting a guy that has a Nazi symbol on his chest that he covered up for the campaign. So, you know, the hard right can beat a corny, and the hard right can beat, you know, the moderate Republicans, no problem. Dan Crenshaw, blown out in the primary, but this guy represents that existential threat to the left caddy. So to me, I almost would like, you know, like, in other words, if I was a Republican, I'd be like, okay, yeah, let's run against this guy. We're gonna blow this guy into the North Atlantic.

[Katy Tur]

Republicans are thrilled about this. But I think there is a question, is there a mood in American politics at the moment? And what's interesting about Platner is I don't think you can say he's hard left. I think you can say he's populist and he's anti establishment. But some of what he says is left and some of what he says has echoes of cultural conservatism. So he's an interesting kind of very main, specific candidate, specific to that kind of rural, working class state, white state. And I think there's a chance that he wins because of the nature of the state that he's coming from and because he is tapping into something about income inequality and hard times that a lot of American voters are feeling at the moment. So I think Maine is still in play. Republicans are thinking gleefully, that's it. Susan Collins gets back in again. The other thing that's happening in Maine is he's much younger, and Susan Collins is much older and has been around for decades. And there is a sort of generational shift taking place in American politics, which you're seeing in the Michigan race, too, where you've got a whole group of younger people running and you younger voters are fed up with old people hanging onto seats decade after decade and never stepping down and getting kind of corrupted by Washington and by power. And you've got a lot of young voters in the country saying, and young candidates in the country saying, it's our turn now.

[Anthony Zurcher]

I think you are making all the right points, but let me just ask a question. If this was 10 years ago, this was 20 years ago, would he have been able to survive his biography?

[Katy Tur]

No. I mean, it's remarkable. And he's. We've unearthed social media posts that have been accused of being homophobic, of being misogynist. There's the Totenkopf skull image of his on his tattoo. He puts all that down to youthful indiscretions. And I think in this weird social media era, where this idea of authenticity, which never has to be quite defined, and you've got other candidates as well saying, you've got it in Michigan as well. One of the more centrist Democratic candidates, Mallory McMorrow, had these social media posts from when she first moved to Michigan from California, saying, oh, this makes me miss California even more. And now that, of course, that's got dragged up by her opponents saying, see, she's not really from Michigan. She just misses California. She wants to be a California. Her competitors are saying that. And what's her reply? Well, it shows that I'm authentic. So that's how candidates are getting around this. They're saying, well, whatever I said in the past, yolo, you know, I was being authentic in my youth. And that put that down to youth and indiscretion. And by the way, you, the voter, you recognize that we've all posted things on social media that we're embarrassed by, and it just makes me human. I think you're gonna see an awful lot of that, by the way, in this era of social media where people have to disavow things they've said in the past in social media. But I think you're right. Ten years ago, you wouldn't have got away with this.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Katty. The real question, though, is we know that Trump can get away with anything, and there's some leniency or tolerance for the Republicans on some of their past discretions. I'm just wondering, let's say he loses, let's say Susan Collins beats him. Is the lesson that the new tolerance has limits for the Democrats, specifically, they pay a price versus the other party doesn't. And it's just interesting about the. There's a culture war going on, but there's also a cultural fight going on in between the two parties, where one party may be more lenient than the other. And then the other question, from a political perspective, is it even fair to say that because he's running against an incumbent. And as you and I know, incumbents have a 90 plus percent rate of reelection. So it's an interesting thing. But last point, and I want you to react to it, he wins. Doesn't 2028 the Republicans say, oh my God, the Democrats have lost the plot, they support Nazis. And then everybody looks around and says, oh yeah, look at the hypocrisy of the Democrats. They're Nazi supporters. What do they say?

[Katy Tur]

I think it's going to be very interesting to see who wins. Who are the types of candidates who win from the Democratic Party in this midterm election? And is it more progressive left which will give fodder to the Republican Party in a traditional way going into 2028? Is it candidates who are going to particularly appeal to younger voters? Are they going to get younger voters to turn out? I think we'll learn a lot about the direction of politics and it could be we're in a kind of a sea change moment where being an established candidate, being the incumbent candidate may not be the guarantee of reelection if you're older and have been there for a long time in the way that it was 10 years ago because you do have a new generation of people coming into politics quickly. On the Michigan race, this is a very interesting one. You've got the incumbent Democratic senator Gary Peters, who doesn't want to seek a third term. Republicans think this means they have a chance of catching that up. You've got a primary race between three people, Haley Stevens, a local representative, who is the establishment favorite. You've got Mallory McMaro, also a local politician who's more of a centrist, trying to kind of position herself as the every woman in the Democratic Party trying to appeal to progressives and people in the center. And then you have got the very progress progressive, former Wayne County Health director Abdul El Sayed, who is also being seen as in a way, a bit like Graham Platner. But I think there are big differences between these two candidates. But he's very progressive on the left. He's very opposed to aid to Israel, very opposed to what Israel has done in Gaza. Israel is a huge issue in the state of Michigan because of the big Muslim population and a big Jewish population in Detroit as well. It's almost like Israeli politics is a proxy for Michigan politics at the moment. But I think if El Sayed wins the primary there, which is in August, you're going to again, Anthony, to your point, you're going to have Republicans saying, this is great. This means that we will take Michigan because El Sayed is too progressive for Michigan voters. We can defeat him. And I think if Democrats don't take Michigan, their chances of taking the Senate are very narrow. So they're putting out polls at the moment saying Al Syed loses to the Republican candidate.

[Anthony Zurcher]

The benefit of being on a podcast, Katty, is that you can say the quiet part out loud. So I'll say it okay. So you don't have to. So you can maintain your classiness, Katty. But I will say it okay? His name is Muslim and he's running against a Republican Party that loves white supremacists. And let me just say this. When he. If he were to win, those guys will have a field day on his name. The same way that Mr. Trump, President Trump, says the words Barack Hussein Obama

[Katy Tur]

now just calls him Hussein Obama. Doesn't even call him Barack Hussein Obama.

[Anthony Zurcher]

See, that's a whistle, ladies and gentlemen, And I find it disgusting and reprehensible. I can't speak to Abdel El Sayed's policies. I gotta look into him more, and then I'll evaluate him on his policies, not his name. Or as Martin Luther King would say, we judge people by the content of their character, not the color of their skin. I do find it, you know, the research on him that he's hanging out with Hasan Piker, who's a leftist streamer who once said that America deserved 9 11. I mean, I don't know. I mean, that could be a problem for people in the country. But I just think that the world is upside down and we're in a situation now where what used to matter caddy on your resume doesn't matter anymore. Okay? And what matters is how much punch do you have in social media? And all these guys, if they're smart, they're going to pick up the phone and call Mayor Mondani and get them on the phone and say, hey, dude, take a look at my social media. Let me know what you think and give me some suggestions. And that's where we are right now in American politics.

[Katy Tur]

We're in a moment of flux where the electorate is changing, it is getting younger, and a lot of candidates are trying to wrestle with this new communications environment as well. And if you're not good at it and you're not authentic at it, you probably have a pretty slim chance of being elected or reelected incumbents. Watch out. I think we're in for some change. Elections in this year's midterms and in 2028. Okay, guys, we'll be answering your questions in our episode for our founding members. We're going to be talking about Marco Rubio because we've had a ton of questions about Rubio after we did our miniseries for members about him. If you'd like to become a founding member to listen to that series or any of the other series that we've done, you can join us@there estispoliticsus.com we'll see you later this week. Bye, guys.

[Anthony Zurcher]

You're so good at that. Cat HE See you guys later.

[Norman Smith]

Hello, it's Norman Peston from the Rest Is Money. I've just had the most gripping conversation with an economist, Nick Bloom from Stanford, who's published a very influential paper on the costs of leaving the European Union. He and his colleagues calculated that leaving the the EU has cost us 8% of our national income, our GDP. That's 240 billion more than we spend on the NHS every single year. What's really striking is that his numbers are now the numbers being used by the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, when she talks about the advantages of getting closer to the eu. So if you want to know how damaging Brexit has been and whether that 8% number is robust, whether it's real, join me for the latest episode of the Rest Is Money.