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This episode is brought to you by whoop.
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Whoop is one of my favorite all time products. It's clear we're living through pretty stressful times right now. It's easy to underestimate how much that can affect our sleep and ability to stay focused day to day.
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Yeah, avoiding burnout can feel like a full time job in and of itself.
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Whoop helps with the bit people miss that shows what actually is going on beneath the surface. Cat. It's a screenless, wearable device that monitors your sleep recovery, lifestyle and stress.
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Yeah, and this matters to me. It even looks very elegant.
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Did you hear that guys? Whoop is so stylish that even Catty K will wear the whoop.
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It's the little gold clasp. I like that.
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I'm telling you, I had no idea how much my old routine was impacting my health. But since using Whoop and making those small adjustments, I've already started to feel the difference. Better sleep, clearer thinking, even more energy.
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Head to join.wh-oop.com politics to get started with WHOOP today.
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This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp.
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There are times when things might feel a little bit off, but we just carry on and don't really stop to deal with it all.
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It's stress, it's pressure, anxiety, the kind of things most of us carry, often shaped by the pace and pressure of daily life. This May is dedicated to mental health awareness, giving us a good moment to pause and check in with ourselves.
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And this is where BetterHelp comes in. It offers access to experienced therapists, giving you the space to talk things through and make sense of what's on your mind, helping you to take a step back from everything you're going through every day and gain some of that much needed perspective.
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BetterHelp handles the initial matching for you. You fill out a short questionnaire that they match you with a therapist and if it's not quite the right fit, you can switch at any time.
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You really don't have to be on this journey alone and that's so important. Find support and have someone with you in therapy. Sign up and get 10% off@betterhelp.com tripus that's betterhelp.com tripus. Hello and welcome to the Rest Is Politics Us with me, Kat, Matty K In a very dreary Washington D.C. anthony is off this week. He is being a superstar in his son's movie so we're very excited about that. Can't wait to see his starring role. I hope he's learned his lines I texted him yesterday, said, get on it. Don't forget. So filling in for Anthony today, we have the host of the weekend show on Ms. Now and a very good friend of mine, Eugene Daniels. Eugene, I'm so happy to have you here.
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C
Hello, Katie. I'm so excited to be here. I'm honored, actually. Also, I want to be in a movie. How do we get in this movie?
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A
The only movie I've ever been in, I shot down on Capitol Hill and of course, I ended up on the cutting room floor. I was down there all day and I had to play a member of the press corps. And then I watched the movie and nothing. So I don't know. I think if your son is making the movie, you can probably guarantee that you don't end up on the editing floor. You would hope so. Yeah. Surprised you haven't been in a movie, actually, Eugene, I'll put your name forward. You'd be good at that. Thank you. So it's lovely to have you on the show. I should fill in a bit. You were also a White House correspondent for Politico for a long time and you wrote the Politico playbook. So there are very few people who are more plugged into what is happening in the White House and in Washington than you are, which is why it's so great to have you on the program today. We are going to talk about Donald Trump heading to China later this week, this huge, important summit which was delayed from the beginning of the war. It's happening this week on Thursday, Friday. An enormous amount is at stake in this summit, but of course, hanging over it all is the shadow of Iran. And I was speaking to a senator this morning who said, look, he is heading into this summit weaker than he would have done because of the war in Iran. So we're going to talk about that. And in the second half of the program, we're going to talk about Virginia and the Supreme Court ruling that overruled the vote in Virginia to redistrict the state.
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C
It feels like a million years ago, but it just happened.
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A
It was like a million years ago. We haven't been on air since then. And I thought it was worth discussing because I do think it has ramifications for the midterms, and they may not be as disastrous as the most suicidal Democrats who are texting me seem to think it is.
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C
Yes.
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A
But let's, let's kick off with China and Iran. You were covering the White House in the first term, and he went to China and they had. I didn't Even know that such a thing existed. But the Chinese gave him a state visit plus. I suppose no one wants a state visit minus. Right? I mean, that's like, not something you would want.
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C
That's the bad one.
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A
That's the bad one. He got the state visit plus, and the Chinese rolled out every piece of red carpet they could find in the country and showered him with love and praise. And I'm just, is this going to be the same? Is this going to be the same? Sort of. Maybe it has to be a gold carpet now anyway. Or a gold statue. A gold statue of Trump. Maybe that would help if he. If he turned up at Beijing Airport.
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C
All of these leaders understand Donald Trump sometimes, I think, better than he understands himself. They know that a long red carpet, maybe a flyover of some jets, you know, a lot of people walking around, all of that makes him move actors differently. He wants to feel important. It is the pomp and circumstance of the presidency that is kind of his favorite part. Right. When everyone stands in the House chamber, when the State of the Union happens and he gets announced. All of those kinds of things are the kinds of things that if you are a leader of a different country, that ingratiates you with Donald Trump. And so I'd assume it'd be something similar, but the relationship is different. The timing is very different, and kind of the temperament is going to be different. What they're asking for, what we're asking for as the United States and what China's going to probably want in return are going to be completely different things than they would have been and that they were in that first term and that they would have been two months ago, when this trip was originally supposed to happen.
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A
Yeah, I think Trump, I mean, to that point of its kind of. With Trump, often it's all personal and foreign leaders kind of now get Trump. After however long he's been on our national stage, 430 years, they. It's this. I mean, it feels like that. I wonder sometimes if he mistakes these relationships because he is proud of saying that he has good personal relationships with Kim Jong Un, with Vladimir Putin, with the King of the United Kingdom, with Xi Jinping. And I don't know that he really understands that he may be misjudging the power of the relationship and the nature of the relationship himself, and in a way that could weaken his position, because I think he thinks, I can go in there, be leader to leader, work my famous Art of the Deal charm on him with a bit of leverage thrown in. And because we understand Each other, man to man, and we're going to get something done, which is some kind of grand bargain. And I don't know that he realizes that's not actually the way that they have processes and they actually do have institutions and they do have a National Security Council or whatever the National Security Council equivalent is.
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C
Exactly.
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And this goes through formal steps. It's not actually all just done leader to leader. And anyway, he may not have that great relationship that he thinks he does.
- [07:30]
C
He overestimates himself and underestimates everyone that sits across from him. Right. That is kind of how Donald Trump has. Has always operated. The Chinese are very skilled negotiators. They're proud people. The leadership there is very proud. They are a superpower also. It's not like you're going to, you know, he's going to some state where, you know, South Dakota or North Dakota, talking to the governor, he's talking to a superpower. It reminds me of like when you were a kid and someone would be like, you're my best friend. You'd be like, you're my. I'm your best friend, but you're not my best friend. That's what it feels like with some of these relationships with Donald Trump is that he anticipates that he has these strong personal relationships because they pulled out the literal railed carpet, they gave him a gift, they talked nice about him. And when you talk to ambassadors, as I have, as I know you have, who are in those rooms, who prep their leaders for these kinds of visits, is they prep their leader to basically just shower him with praise, shower him with praise. He will kind of be nice to you, and you guys can probably get what you want. But then when the leader leaves in that post meeting that they all have with the ambassador, the leaders rolling their eyes, laughing at Trump, a lot of them look at him and see him as someone who's not prepared. Right. He famously doesn't read all of the documents that other presidents tend to read. He goes off of his instincts.
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A
All of the documents or any of
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C
the documents, any of them. And also his team. There were stories a couple of weeks ago, months ago at this point, that the chief of staff, Susie Wiles in the White House was getting concerned because she didn't think, according to the reporting, that the President of the United States was getting a full view of the Iran war. And that is kind of how, if it's the war, it's all of the issues that Donald Trump looks at, it's the polling that they show him so he's not getting a full picture of the impacts of his presidency and how the actions of his presidency are impacting his popularity. And so you have a whole. He goes in there thinking he's the most popular person in the world and everybody should love him, but then that is not at all how it actually operates. And you remember he was talking to the UN and everyone was laughing at him, and he thought they were laughing at his joke. But when you talk to the leaders that were in that room when he did that speech in his first term, they will tell you that we were laughing at how silly it was. And that's what you hear from the leaders. And he doesn't seem to get that. And if his team gets that, it doesn't appear that they're, like, telling him that.
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A
We're actually going to be speaking a lot more about Susie Wells in the bonus episode for founding members, if you'd like to listen to that. Do you think he wants this China visit? I mean, I know it was pushed back right from the beginning of the Iran war, and my reporting is that they pushed it back and they hoped that the Iran war would be done and dusted. And as we're recording this on Monday morning, the latest is that the latest peace proposal that was flying around, Donald Trump on a truth social post late Sunday night, roundly rejected and said, it's totally unsatisfactory. It doesn't work. So he's going into this meeting with a hot war, literally, and a very unstable situation in the Middle east, and it's a hot war that he had hoped that he would have won by the time he met Xi Jinping. How does that affect how he goes into the meeting? Even Trump cannot be deluding himself that he's going into this meeting with the strongest possible hand. Right. I mean, I know he has a way of. No, he does. I know. I know he likes to bend reality to his own reality.
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C
Exactly.
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But do you think he's going, getting on the plane later this week to fly to China, which he probably doesn't want to do. It's a long way. Jet lag. He wants to be home in Mar a Lago, in the White House, mostly thinking, actually, I'm in a great position.
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C
Yes, I do. I think that he always thinks that. Yes, I think there is. Did you read Maggie Haberman's book?
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A
Yeah, of course. Confidence Man. We talked about it. We did a series on Trump and we talked to Maggie for it.
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C
It is such a. If you. If folks who are listening, if you want to understand Trump's psyche, that is probably the best book to do it in. He has been convincing himself and other people of things for decades. He is 79, 80, 80. So that means his entire life, almost 100 years at this point, he has been convincing himself of how great he is and convincing the world of that thing. Now, if, if, if we had Old's Pearlman go in his head and, and, and pull out things, would he believe it? It's hard to know. But the way that he operates is as if the confidence of that you project is the most important thing. And so does he want to go on this trip? I don't know that he wants the flight, but I do think that Donald Trump in the second term has been so focused and you talk to people around him and they will say this. He is so focused on the legacy aspect of this. And he knows that the presidents who have like long lasting legacies, for the most part there was some kind of international component to it. Right. It's rare that a president gets to be, you know, a legacy if he doesn't have some kind of international peace deal or doesn't stop, doesn't win a war, were right that doesn't happen as much. And that's how he views the presidency and this current presidency. And when you talk to folks who are around Donald Trump, Steve Bannon has said this publicly, is that they want him to be focused more on domestic issues, but his eyes are set on getting the Nobel Peace Prize and being seen as someone who has stature because at the end of the day, that is so important to him. So he wants to go on this trip because of that, but he also sees himself as the leader of the strongest country in the world. I probably also imagine that he doesn't see China really on the same level. The way that he talks about it sure doesn't make it seem like it is. It seems like he believes the United States above all else is the most powerful country in the world. And there's a truth to that. But that doesn't mean that other countries aren't nipping at our heels or have beaten us in a lot of different metrics. When you look at how do you grade the greatest country in the world?
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A
I mean, you speak to a lot of people who are around Trump and you covered the White House for years. Do you get any sense that he's going into this meeting and kind of juggling the Iran situation, which doesn't seem to be going well for him, realizing that in the eyes of the Chinese, the United States of America, the great United States of America, the biggest economy in the world, the biggest military in the world has just been brought to its knees by a second rate power. Do you think he doesn't go realizing that? Because we know he would have liked this wrapped that he is frustrated with the war. Right.
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C
It's why they canceled it the first time.
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A
Was because why they canceled it the first time. Exactly. So the logic of that is that you then set it for hoping that it's finished, but it hasn't finished.
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C
It hasn't finished. And of course it wasn't going to be finished like this. Like it's, it's in, in his head, it's Venezuela. It'll be done in a couple of days, whatever the operation is. But Iran is completely different. And, and when you talk to even people who are allies of his, they will say that he has misjudged the Iran war. Their ability to obviously close the Strait of Hormuz, their ability to keep fighting back. How many munitions they continue to have stored. He keeps saying this 18 to 20% number that they only have that left when the intel according to reports is that they have 70 to 75% of pre war munitions. And so I do think he goes in and he still continues to think that he has the upper hand. He does not. This is New York Real Estate 101, right? At some point you're faking it and faking it and faking it and it just becomes a part of who you are. That's when I talk to young journalists, I'm like, go take a psychology course. Because understanding how like the human psyche work is so key to understanding how these politicians operate. Donald Trump truly believes he is the best negotiator on earth. That's why he truly believes that he is the best communicator and in the White House and the administration in the country. And when he goes there to China, he is going to believe that he's gonna sit across from Xi Jinping and be able to convince him of anything. And while other presidents would leave there and the readout would be we had great conversation, they're coming closer to us. Trump on the other hand, will actually believe what he's saying, whereas other presidents will know that it's a spin.
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A
It's like Sun Tzu in the Art of War, when you're weak, appear strong. He doesn't actually think that he appears weak. He thinks that he appears strong. What do you make of the rejection of the news this morning that Trump is not happy with what the Iranians have proposed. And what's your understanding of the conversations in the White House around what America's options are now? Because it seems to me there's a great piece I would recommend everyone reading Checkmate on Iran. It's in the Atlantic. Robert Kagan, who is a big, long time Iran hawk, and he is now saying it is time to accept defeat and pull out of this situation, which has not done any favors for Donald Trump. It's in the Atlantic. We'll put it in the newsletter. But I really urge you to read it. It's one of the best things on Iran at the moment. His argument is we're never going back to the status quo. Auntie Trump can't wrestle control of the Strait of Hormuz from the Iranians because the Iranians will just attack neighboring countries and neighboring energy facilities and that will have a massive ripple effect around the world. So we're actually leaving the situation in a worse position because the Iranians do de facto and will do going forward have some control over the Strait of Hormuz. That's just the way it's going to be. And with the revenue that they make from that, they're going to rebuild their ballistic missiles and they'll move fast to rebuild their nuclear arsenal as well. Where does Trump think this is going? Are there any smart ideas inside the White House at the moment about how to avoid what looks like a pretty catastrophic defeat? I mean, Kagan is even saying it's defeat and just he's going to have to accept defeat and hope that the American voters forget that he was defeated.
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C
And he will never say he was defeated, right?
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A
No.
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C
What I have heard from folks inside the White House is that for many of them, the best case scenario is that they end up with something that kind of looks like the jcpoa. So the Obama Iran deal, the Strait of Hormuz is open and Donald Trump gets to stamp his name on both of those things and kind of walk away. But after you have shaken the hornet's nest, after you have forced Iran and the regime there to even understand their own power. Right. Like diplomats will say that Iran also is kind of surprised by how, like, steadfast they've been, that regime was kind
- [18:30]
A
of on the ropes before the war started. Right. The economy was terrible. Yes. They'd killed thousands in the streets of people in January because they had to. And if anything, this seems to have made the regime more solidified.
- [18:42]
C
Yes. And the leadership of the country, the new leadership, who we still have yet to see the nu Ayatollah, which people should know. But he is the son of the one that was killed by the United States and Israel. And at the end of the day, it sounds like the son is more hardline. So it means that the problem of Iran, as the United States has put it for a very long time, is only gonna get harder to deal with. Right. And I don't know that Donald Trump really thinks about or cares about the long term impacts. Right? He doesn't really care what the next president has to deal with. He cares about what he has to as president deal with. And the folks in the White House are looking for an off ramp so he can say that he had a successful something or other. And really, honestly, the American people, and this is just true of any foreign entanglement, they only care deeply, right. The vast public, if American boots are on the ground. Right. If the American people are put in harm's way. And since we haven't put boots on the ground, we've lost 13 service members. But if we haven't put boots on the ground, then the American people will probably forget.
- [19:51]
A
So long as gas prices come down.
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C
Exactly. If gas prices go down, which the CEO of Exxon just last week said on a call, it's unlikely to happen, that the full impacts of what's going on with oil has not hit the market yet. And so it doesn't seem like gas prices are gonna go down anytime soon. And a lot of folks haven't actually made that connection, that Iran is the reason why gas prices are high. Not everybody. And honestly, Trump's voters are gonna get hit more. They're more likely to live in rural areas where there's a lack of access to public transportation. And so they're driving longer. Right. They're driving 50 miles sometimes in a day, from home to work to the grocery store. And that impact they care about. But the kind of, you know, whether we went to war, right. Like that aspect of it is hard for them to grasp sometimes.
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A
It's such a good point because actually, what cities are overwhelmingly Democratic. Cities are the places where you have public transport networks. The people who had to drive to their healthcare job, to their manufacturing job, to their farming job, they tend to be more of Donald Trump's base. And they're the ones that were hit by tariffs in the first place and are now are being hit by the high gas prices. I wonder, are you seeing any signs, Eugene, that that's having an impact on Trump's. On the. I know, obviously it's having an impact on the polling. We're all seeing the impact on the polling. And the impact. Is it. Is it having an impact on a perception that the White House likes to say Trump's playing 4D chess and that he is the skilled negotiator? And it is all of the art of the deal. Is that image being impacted by what's happening right now, do you think?
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C
I do. And I think there's the MAGA base who isn't gonna go anywhere. Right. In 2018, when I was at Politico, we went to Iowa and we went to a soybean farm. And the soybean farm, this is when he was having his first fight with China over soybeans and tariffs and. And the farmer had lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in months. And I asked him, he was a Trump voter. I said, so do you blame Donald Trump? Were you upset with him? He said, I have to believe that he has a plan. And I think that has led me to believe that Trump can convince these folks that voted for him and supported for him, the hardcore folks, to believe anything. Right. He has this uncanny political ability to convince people of anything and make them doubt their own eyes and ears. Right. When they really support them. I also think back to that psychology aspect. It's very hard to say that you were wrong, right? Like you asked my husband, it's very difficult for me to be like, you know, I messed up, I was wrong. And I think that's the same thing with voters, is that at the end of the day, it is very difficult to say I voted for the wrong
- [22:35]
A
person who messes up, you or your husband. By the way, I can't believe you ever do, Eugene. It must be always his fault, right?
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C
It's always him. That's why what I say, always the
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A
one who messes up, always wrong.
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C
It's crazy. It's crazy. Yet I love him anyway.
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A
Funny how it works.
- [22:48]
C
It's so funny and so like he. His ability to convince him of anything. However, the folks that people need to watch are the Republicans that held their nose and voted for him because they didn't like Kamala. I call them rented voters, right? The voters who maybe voted for Democrats, black men, brown men who may have voted for Democrats in the past, who thought Donald Trump was gonna keep us out of wars and keep the prices low, and the independents. Those are the folks where the view of Donald Trump has changed. The people that he convinced who kind of like, had an issue with some of the racism, had an issue with some of the way he spoke about people about women, about everybody. But they voted for him anyway because they believed their lives would be better. And that is key. And if their life does not feel better, they do not believe that he's the key negotiator. They do not believe that he is the man who can fix it all. I alone can fix it. They are seeing that that is not the case.
- [23:41]
A
And what, what do you think some of those MAGA voters, like the guy you, the soybean farmer who you.
- [23:46]
C
Yeah.
- [23:46]
A
Interviewed in Iowa. I'm wondering too, what just the nature of the fact of this second term, how much time and attention, let alone money. And I think we haven't got to the really interesting reporting yet, which is starting to be done on how much this war is actually in dollars and cents costing American voters, because I think that's going to be super intense. Interesting too. But how, what do they think of the amount of time and attention Donald Trump is spending on these foreign ventures? I mean, I don't know if most of them could find Venezuela on a map. I'm not sure I could have found Venezuela until Maduro came on the picture. Until recently I had, you know, I actually did go to Caracas, I think for Chavez's funeral. So maybe, hopefully after that I could still find it on a map. But most people, you know, Venezuela's far away. It didn't impact most people. Maduro did not impact most American voters. Iran also, I mean, it was ironically was Donald Trump who said Venezuela is close. It's not a 20 hour flight away. That's why we're not getting involved in the Middle East. And then, of course, a couple of months later, he gets involved in the Middle east and now he's going to China, which is a very important trip. I mean, there are a lot of people nervous that he's going to undermine, you know, Taiwan's position. Just had a text actually from Senator Chris Coons, who we spoke to when we were in Davos, who said that he's concerned that Trump may well give away something substantial on either AI or Taiwan just to have a win as he sees it on trade at the summit. Because Trump's going to want to come away and say he got something out of it. But Coons is saying also that he thinks Iran does significantly weaken Trump because of how he's mishandled it and because of the divisions that it's created with our allies. Of course, Xi Jinping knows this and knows that Americans are worried about this. There are very real issues that need to be dealt with. The Chinese. But I could imagine quite a lot of MAGA voters might be thinking, why is he going off again? You know, why is it, why does he keep doing these foreign things when we're paying $7 a gallon at the gas pump in some states in America for gas? I mean, it just feels like his attention is focused elsewhere. And maybe that's the legacy element that you're talking about, but I wonder whether that also has an impact on MAGA voting at some point.
- [25:57]
C
Why is he flying to China? Why is he spending so much time in Iran? Why is he talking about the reflecting pool that he keeps calling the reflecting pond? Why is he knocking down the East Wing? Why is he putting challenge coins on the doors around the White House and gluing them? Why is he doing all of these things that don't impact my life? Right? That is what voters care about. And this is sometimes when you talk to politicians as a, as we both do all the time, sometimes some of them really grab that at the end of the day, they don't have the power. It's actually people who voted for them that have the power. The problem is, for so long, the elite in this country have convinced the vast majority of voters, and including magna, Republican voters, Democrats, all of the above, that the power is held in Washington, D.C. and I think when voters watch you not doing what they sent you for, right? What they pay you for, what your job is, what you said you were going to do, the frustration builds and builds and builds and the question is where it go, right? Some people will still hold their nose and vote for Republicans, right? Because that's what they know. But I think nowadays you're also seeing voters willing to be like, you know what? My life has not been great for a long time. If high gas prices were the only thing that the American people were dealing with, then this would not be as much of a problem for Republicans. But it's high gas prices. It's the obamacap subsidies that lapse. So healthcare is astronomical. The grocery bills are higher.
- [27:24]
A
Don't underestimate health care. Huge issue.
- [27:26]
C
It's such a huge issue. And the question always is for voters, is my life better off since I voted for you? And if the answer is no, nowadays, they are willing to look elsewhere. Ask Joe Biden, asked Kamala Harris, right? Voters who were typically Democrat are willing to look elsewhere because someone was promising them something, that he was going to fix it. And I think his ability to convince everyone of anything still only goes so far. His polling numbers are terrible and he has that kind of floor or that ceiling of like 30 something percent that's never going anywhere. But that is not good. That's not good polling for anyone that has paid attention to polling at any point. Like no president would want that polling and they would try to fix it in the first term. Bad polling, bad headlines would change Trump's mind a little bit on where he was doing things. That is no longer the case.
- [28:22]
A
Yeah, and Republicans would love him to not be involved in Iran, not be involved in all these foreign ventures, but be focused on those questions of affordability. Meanwhile, he flies off to China and the Chinese are getting a whole load of information about how America conducts war, how many missiles it has, what its missile plan use is, is what its intelligence gathering capability is, how quickly it is burning through some of its advanced missiles and munitions. And all of that is very useful information if you're sitting in Beijing. So it's hard to see how this summit doesn't start with Beijing at a bit of an advantage. Now, before we go to a break, don't forget that the pre sale is now open for the North America tour that we are doing this October. We're heading to Atlanta, Toronto, Boston, New York, York, D.C. minneapolis and Chicago. Anthony and I are super excited about this. We can't wait to see you all there and meet you and take your questions live. Just sign up@therestispoliticsus.com for the exclusive pre sale link. Tickets are already selling, guys. General sale then opens up this Friday. Okay, let's take a break. We'll be back to talk about the Democrats. Foreign. Eugene, in the first half you were talking a bit about black voters and Democrats and voter enthusiasm and how Trump's numbers are so in the polls that it's going to be terrible for the Republicans in November. So what has happened in the last few days may tilt the balance the other way a little bit because Republicans are doing everything they can to make the map as friendly as they can to themselves. We covered the Virginia vote on redistricting on this program. Virginia's Supreme Court struck down the congressional redistricting map that had been approved by voters, which means that they go back to the old map. Virginia Democrats had felt that the new map that the Virginia voters voted on and approved would have netted them an extra four Democratic leaning seats. Those have now been taken away and we get back to where we were. Of course, this follows. Texas is redistricting. California is redistricting. Louisiana is redistricting. Florida looks like it's going to be redistricting. We are now In a full on redistricting arms race. And the Democrats, it looks like a kind of running out of weapons. It's a bit like the sort of whole thing of who's looking at who's got more munitions. But because it feels to me that the Democrats in this arms race have an inherent disadvantage. How much of a bloke I was getting texts from Democrats on Friday, literally, oh, you know, oh my God. I can say that it's podcast like, oh Christ, we can never come back from this. And they were getting super depressed on Friday. How much of a blow? Because now I'm coming around to having had three days and maybe it's just looking at it differently. How much of a blow do you think think this is to Democrats in the midterms?
- [31:28]
C
I mean, Democrats were always going to be at a disadvantage because the way that they have been talking about redistricting for years is the exact opposite of mid district gerrymandering. Right. They've talked about these independent commissions and all of these other things. And so they have in many of the states around the country, tied themselves, their hands behind their back. Some of their constitutions say that they can't do this. I will say this. I talked to a lot of Virginia Democrats and Republicans over the last couple of days and what they say is it is not great. Right. I think a lot of Virginia Democrats are concerned about the Supreme Court's striking down something that voters voted for. That's where they're struggling with. And they're trying to think of what's next other than asking the US Supreme Court to rule on this.
- [32:15]
A
Yeah. Which is never gonna do by November, guys.
- [32:17]
C
So we don't have time for that. It's not gonna happen. I think they know that, but they have to be caught fighting is what voters have been wanting from them. And so I think what people have been telling me is that they're probably gonna win. In their eyes, Democrats are gonna win two seats, two more seats instead of four. Right. So it kind of is a wash.
- [32:37]
A
That's what a Democratic member of Congress told me, that actually it would give them two sweets. So if they'll lose two seats effectively.
- [32:44]
C
Exactly. And also maybe the thing about gerrymandering is that you can only do it based on past information. And so you have to assume all of the things will stay the same. You have to assume all of the voters that voted the last time are going to vote the exact same way. You have to assume that as you carve it up, people aren't moving, people aren't coming in. So it is very difficult to do. And when you have a kind of chaotic politics like we have right now and voters feeling like, like we'll try anything, it makes it so much more difficult.
- [33:16]
A
Yeah, I think you're right. I, I think Democrats were feeling really glum last Friday and this week at the beginning of the week, they're feeling a little bit less desperate about this. And I think their thinking had been like, damn, we were on track to win something like 20 to 30 seats if this is a good year for us in the midterm elections in November and have a handsome majority in the House. House. But a Democratic strategist who I spoke to over the weekend and looked at their polling numbers, they still think they're on track to win seven to 12 seats, something like that. They still think Democrats take back control of the House. And they're so that even with what happened in Virginia, they still are looking at it, but it's tighter. I mean, it makes it tighter for them. And of course, their argument is, well, them Republicans don't think they can win, so they rig the map to make it almost impossible for Democrats to win. But that's a hard argument for Democrats to make because they were the ones doing the gerrymandering in Virginia. So I'm not sure they can quite take the moral high ground on this one.
- [34:18]
C
What they'll say is one, Trump started this with Texas. You've heard that.
- [34:21]
A
Yeah.
- [34:22]
C
But also the times in which they have done this in both California and Virginia, it has been done through voters. And so for them, it is trying to fight fire with fire.
- [34:31]
A
That we went to the people and
- [34:32]
C
we went to the the people. And that, that is really important for them. I think what they should be more focused on. And frankly, if you talk to black electeds, this is where their head is. It's less on, oh, my God, the redistricting in Virginia. It's the Supreme Court putting the death knell into the Voting Rights Act a
- [34:47]
A
couple of weeks ago and basically wiping out black representation in Southern states.
- [34:52]
C
It's over. Yes. And like, literally Louisiana, who was having people actually already sinning in their absentee ballots, ballots in their primary, stops the primary. The governor stops the primary so that they can redistrict. And so, like, that's where the real power and control and fear should be for Democrats is that the VRA no longer exists and that the south, even the little bit of power they had in the south, may no longer exist in a few years. The funny Democrats are always Panicking. No matter what happens when you talk to Republicans, they depend so much.
- [35:27]
A
Is it James Carville who calls them bedwetters?
- [35:29]
C
Yes, a lot of people now, but, like, they're always so nervous every time something happens. Oh, my God, the world is burning. Like, we have to flip the table. Oh, my God, what are we gonna do? And then a few days passes, and then they kind of get back to their senses. And I think what I've heard from the leadership of the Democratic Party, whether it's at the dnc, the D trip in Congress, the grand poobahs of the Democratic Party is like, just stay focused. Right. Like, their job is to focus on the issues. The fundamentals haven't changed.
- [35:55]
A
Yeah. For our listeners in England. And don't worry about DNC or D trip. This is just the big poo bars. The grand poo bars is actually what you need to focus on.
- [36:04]
C
Grand poo bars, exactly.
- [36:06]
A
That's what Eugene is talking about.
- [36:08]
C
That's where the power is and the money. At the end of the day, the fundamentals on the economy are the same. And so much could change between now and then. We thought healthcare was gonna be everything. Now it's probably gonna be gas prices. Anything else could happen between now and November. But at the end of the day, the fundamentals for Democrats and Republicans have not changed. Voters are looking at how much money is leaving their wallet. It is way too much for them to sustain. Their credit card bills are much higher. They're not able to pay them. People are deciding and saying to our msnow colleagues on air that, like, at the gas station, I have to decide between eating or putting gas in my tank. Those things are not gonna be changed or fixed by redrawing of the maps. So either Republicans are gonna have to. I don't know what they could do to convince people they really care about affordability in the economy, but if they don't change that, then Democrats still have the advantage. I also think that, Katty, one of the things that's been frustrating over the last few years with covering D.C. is that people keep talking about waves. There's gonna be a red wave. We're gonna have a blue wave.
- [37:13]
A
I love it when it gets like it. We're gonna have a red tsunami, but then we're gonna have a blue wave follow followed by a red trickle.
- [37:20]
C
Exactly. Exactly. Let it go, guys. You're not meteorologists. And at the end of the day, I think that we are probably always gonna have a tight situation in the House. Right. Because the voters, again, are trying New things voters don't believe. These folks are pissed all the time at Democrats and Republicans. And so the idea that Democrats are gonna have 46 seats. I could be wrong, right? I'm willing to say I could be wrong, but it just seems impossible to believe.
- [37:49]
A
It's not the age we live in.
- [37:50]
C
It's not how we live. It's not how our politics works. It's not like it just isn't it. And I think Democrats, I've talked to a lot of Democrats who are like, they also have to be careful, because you have some Democrats out there saying, you elect us, we're gonna fix the economy. They won't be able to. They cannot do that. And so that is not a message that is going to work, because you can't make promises that you're not able to keep. Voters will. Will punish you for that.
- [38:14]
A
I agree with you. And I've heard, actually, Democrats from some of the Southern states, like Alabama, who are kind of rolling their eyes every time they hear. It's like a drinking game. Every time you hear a Democrat talk about affordability, it's you roll your eyes because you know they're not going to make it better either. You've given them a chance, and they didn't make it better either. So you can't just say affordability, and we're going to fix affordability. You have to have actual proposals and plans.
- [38:37]
C
Where is the plan that are viable
- [38:39]
A
and that can make it through Congress?
- [38:41]
C
And to Trump's desk.
- [38:42]
A
And to Trump's desk. Exactly. Which is just never gonna happen. Trump is never gonna sign anything that comes out of a Democratic Congress in the next two years.
- [38:50]
C
And the Senate will probably not pass it. And the Senate ignores the House anyway. So I've been talking to a lot of folks, and what they say is Democrats should focus not on, you know, the redistricting wars. They should focus on creating a project 2027. What are you actually going to do that you can get done? What does accountability look like? Right. If you have the gavels, what does that actually look like? What are the kinds of bills you're going to put forward and force Republicans to say no to? Those are the kinds of things that they should be talking about and focused on. And frankly, Hakeem Jeffries has said in the past they were going to release some kind of plan, and, you know, what are we going to do? And he has not. And no one's seen it. Neither have the members of Congress.
- [39:31]
A
Look, the Trump people are smart. They spent four years out of power Drawing up a plan, detailed plan, Project 2025. We all read it. We didn't think it was all true. But they came in. They may not hold it because a lot of the stuff they've tried to do in that has been overturned because it wasn't actually legal or constitutional. But they came in with a very detailed plan. Democrats probably need to be spending these years out of office rather than complaining about redistricting or rather than just complaining about Trump and coming up with a really good plan of their own. So they have. Have white papers or the equivalent of white papers on AI. Yeah, they have white papers on what that's going to do to your jobs, on retraining, on what you would do about gas taxes even in normal times. I just think they need to sound like they're a lot more solid on their policy ground and they need to be more creative and more creative.
- [40:21]
C
They have to be more creative.
- [40:22]
A
At the moment, they're relying on abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson.
- [40:25]
C
Exactly.
- [40:26]
A
I'm thinking that's their policy paper.
- [40:29]
C
Know that that's gonna work for them. It's terrible idea. The thing about Republicans that if you are someone who is a student of history and a student of politics is that is impressive, is that they just try stuff. Right. Like Project 2025 is full of a bunch of stuff that lawyers will tell you that is never going to be allowed. And yet they are trying it anyway. The Trump administration, because they're saying, force them to say no. Right. Like force them. Force the courts to knock it down. Like that is something that Democrats had such a frustration with Joe Biden about when they were saying, get rid of all of our student loans. He was saying, well, the courts won't let me in. And they're like, we don't wanna hear that shit. Sorry for the cousins.
- [41:08]
A
We won't tell your mom. It's okay.
- [41:11]
C
But they didn't wanna hear that. They wanted to hear someone who was going to try anyway, who's a fighter. Who's a fighter and who is gonna be creative and who's gonna. Even if the courts have to say no. Right. You did it. The idea is checks and balances. After you do the action, you can't have the check before you do it. You're watching some of the younger Democrats, like Suha Subramaniam. There was this call over the weekend of Democrats and they were all talking about, like, what are you gonna do? And you know, there's a bunch of Democrats on the call and basically, Suhas Subramaniam Is someone, he said this publicly is like, we should just try everything. Why are we, we tying our hands behind our back for this kind of idea of respecting the rule of law? You respect the rule of law. After the law has been struck down by a court, you don't do it beforehand. And I think that's something that a lot of Democrats have not fully grasped. And that is why voters still continue to not like them either. Like both parties are in dire straits, polling wise.
- [42:09]
A
It's so smart. I think that's exactly right, that that is what Democratic voters are looking for. And what I'm hearing from Democrats in Washington, and they had been so almost like, giddy, they were almost measuring up the drapes for all the congressional offices they were about to take over. And then they went through this period of depression on Friday. And now they're saying, well, you know what, actually this is going to mean that Trump loses African American voters because they are going to be so pissed off. He got 21% of them in 2024. But we think we're going to get those African American and black and brown men back into the Democratic fold, and it's going to fire up Democrats even more. And then they're talking sort of tactics rather than talking big idea. And I get it, you've got to count your numbers and you've got to count your districts. But Democrats are sort of a little bit, you know, all over the place. One moment they're super positive and super we've got this. And the next moment they're back to being, you know, super depressed. And then they try and rally again and find themselves being positive again.
- [43:05]
C
Katty, even what you just said with them saying the black and brown men are gonna come back because they're mad at Donald Trump, I think that just, just completely misses the mark on how voters brains work.
- [43:16]
A
I agree.
- [43:17]
C
Just because I'm mad at them doesn't mean I'm gonna come date you. You have to force me to want to come back.
- [43:22]
A
You lost me to give me something.
- [43:25]
C
Yes, we're exes, right? The Democratic Party and some of these black and brown voters, they have broken up. And so Democrats have to stand outside their house with the boombox and a trench coat in the rain playing some music about what plans are gonna do. Do they have to do that? And they're not doing it. I think that is the thing when you talk to voters is that their frustration is being taken for granted. You hear from strategists on the Democratic side, sometimes Republicans say this too, that, well, they'll come back, they'll realize how bad it is. They'll realize the danger to democracy. Voters have so much going on. The idea that they're just going to come to all of these things, you're going to let them just walk to these ideas themselves is silly, and it's political suicide. It is your job as someone who works in politics to convince these folks to come and vote for you. They're not just gonna vote for you because they want to, because they're mad at Donald Trump. You have to force them to do so. You have to convince them of. You have to give them a plan. Where's the black and brown plan? If you care so much about black men, where are the issues that impact black men more than anyone in this country that you're gonna work on? I haven't seen the cat. Have you?
- [44:34]
A
No. And this is something that Hispanic voters complain about every election. Democrats turn up a month before polling day and say, please vote for Democrats. But where are they the rest of the time? And where are the plans that particularly focus on the concerns of that community? Which, by the way, the Hispanic community in California is different from the Hispanic community in Florida, which is different from the Hispanic community in Texas. And I'm sure that's true of black voters, too. Black voters, yes, in Florida and California and Indiana and New York all have different priorities. They have the priorities of their communities. And I think that's something that Democrats miss a trick on.
- [45:10]
C
But the through line is the economy.
- [45:11]
A
The through line is the economy. Economy and security. I would say two things. Economy and security.
- [45:17]
C
Yes, yes. Feeling safe. Right? Being able to live the life that you envisioned for yourself and your family. Being able to pay for gas, pay for food, make sure your kids can go to some kind of school, so maybe buy them some new clothes, go on a family trip once a year. The American people are not asking for that much. They're not asking for the sun, the moon and the stars. They are asking that they are given the ability to reach their, quote, unquote, American dream. The promises of this country. Democrats and Republicans are missing that. You know, Republicans always say voters want handouts. They don't. They actually just want people to get out of their way, assist them in the ways in which they can make it easier for them to be able to operate in the world. Black men especially, there's such a historical aspect to this, which is like black men want to be able to be the head of their household. And that means taking care of their wife and their kids or their partner and their kids. They want to be able to work. They want to be able to afford things. They want to be able to enjoy their lives. They want to be able to maybe retire at some point in their lives and enjoy their twilight years. Years. And if folks are not allowing them, helping them to do that, because there is in their eyes, a point of government needing to do some of that and assisting them in that venture. But if you're not going to do it, you're just standing in the way. You are not going to get them to vote for you.
- [46:40]
A
I think also, Eugene, you're tapping into something which is there has been a tendency amongst some Democrats to paint that desire to be able to look after your family in the way that your father did and your grandfather did as somehow misogynist. And I don't think it's misogynist. I think it's just what people. They want to be able to take care of their family and their community and their kids and to say, well, they need to get with the program and realize that, you know, women are earning more money and, you know, women have got the jobs in health care. I get that. I realize that, and I hope the women are supported in those things. But you denigrate the men who feel they have lost something at your paper.
- [47:17]
C
You can do both. You can both like the idea that we as a country should be moving in the direction of more equity and equality when it comes to women making more money in the same jobs and doing the same things as men. And also not say to men, you are terrible for wanting to make more money. You have to figure out how to do both. And at the same time, black women have been hit the hardest in many places in this economy. So many jobs lost. Thousands and tens of thousands of black women have lost jobs over the last year and a half. And so Democrats who say, like, we're so focused on this, they're not. They have some kind of influence and power. They're not talk. Many of them are not talking about it. There are black women like Lauren Underwood and Ayanna Pressley that are talking about these kinds of things in Congress. But by and large, they're not. And so you're not focusing, some of them not focusing on the issues that have impact black men. They're not focusing on the issues that have hit black women the hardest. Even while black women have been the backbone of the Democratic Party.
- [48:18]
A
96% vot for Democrats in the last two elections, black women highest vote against Donald Trump that there was.
- [48:25]
C
And they do not feel treated in that way. And so when you talk to black women voters, I don't think they're gonna vote for Donald Trump, but I think they're like, you know what? We're not. We're sticking out. Y' all figure it out. Since you don't wanna do anything that helps me, I'm good. That's dangerous for Democrats.
- [48:41]
A
It's very dangerous for Democrats. Eugene Daniels, thank you so much. So fun having you on. We even snuck in the American dream. When you get the American dream at the end of the program, you know you're doing well.
- [48:52]
C
That's not how you know you have an American on.
- [48:54]
A
That's how you know we find it. We still find hope in all the trouble. It was great to have you. Thank you so much. And all of you, thank you so much for listening. And Eugene is gonna join us for our question and answer for our founding members. We're gonna talk about again, Pete Hegseth and Senator Kelly and the spat that they are in. If you look like to become a founding member and hear more of Eugene answering your questions, you can go to thereestispoliticsus.com thanks, guys. We'll see you later this week.