The Rest Is Politics: US — Episode 60
"Trump vs. The Middle East" (February 14, 2025)
Episode Overview
In this episode, hosts Anthony Scaramucci (“The Mooch”) and Katty Kay explore Donald Trump’s bold proposal for the Middle East, focusing on his plans for Gaza and the broader US trade and foreign policy agenda. The discussion pivots between the realpolitik of Trump’s vision for the region, historical context, present-day diplomatic calculus, and comparisons with the Biden administration—all while exposing the personalities, motivations, and potential consequences behind recent White House moves.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Trump’s "Solution" for Gaza
- Main Proposal: Trump has proposed relocating the entire Palestinian population of Gaza to countries like Jordan and Egypt, using US aid as leverage to force their acceptance, then redeveloping Gaza as an “American-owned,” prosperous region—a "beautiful piece of land."
- Notable Quote: “He would, as he said yesterday, cherish Gaza and own Gaza. And initially he said...Palestinians would leave permanently…He reiterated...no, they would leave permanently, and they would be very happy to do so, because where they're living now is a disaster zone…” (Katty, 08:07)
- Foreign Policy Reaction: Jordan and Egypt are under immense pressure, with Jordanian King Abdullah visibly uncomfortable during his recent White House visit.
- Notable Moment: “King Abdullah looking like he's in a hostage video, looking like he would rather be anywhere else than sitting there next to Donald Trump. He could not have blinked harder if he had tried.” (Katty, 04:05)
- Risks Identified: The hosts agree the plan could destabilize regimes, radicalize displaced populations, and is seen as wildly unrealistic—even dangerous.
- Anthony: “You will create a lot of terrorists, you'll create a lot of suicide bombings, you'll create a lot of people that are like, okay, this is so unfair…So to me, I think it's a nonsensical idea. It's a non starter idea.” (15:16)
Historical Context Provided
- Anthony explains the 20th-century “Sykes-Picot” legacy leaving the Middle East with arbitrary borders and fragile monarchies, reinforcing why Trump’s proposal triggers deep anxieties in the region. (11:57–13:45)
2. Trump’s Approach to Spheres of Influence
- Imperial Vision: Trump is characterized as embracing an outdated model of great power spheres, content to “own” nearby regions while letting China or Russia exercise control elsewhere.
- Notable Quote: “Donald Trump has this view of foreign policy and America's role in the world, which is very...imperial in a way. Spheres of influence.” (Katty, 16:25)
- Practical Downside: Modern multipolar realities (China, Russia) limit the effectiveness of “madman” brinkmanship; adversaries and allies alike have options beyond the US.
- “I think the madman theory works better when you are the only game in town. But…other countries do have the option of going to the Chinese.” (Katty, 21:17)
3. Comparisons: Trump vs. Biden Administration
- Gaza: Biden pursued a middle course, providing Israel with military support while pushing for greater humanitarian efforts—ultimately failing to please either side.
- Katty: “They didn't pick a lane…By trying to do both of those things, I'm not sure they ended up doing either of them very well.” (19:19)
- Ukraine: Mixed grades—Katty gives Biden a "B" for rallying allies (20:06), Anthony a "C" (20:52) for general hesitation; contrast drawn with Trump’s willingness for aggressive posturing.
- Foreign Policy Dilemma: The hosts reflect on whether a more decisive or more “madman” approach might have altered outcomes.
4. The Four “Middle East Objectives” Pop Quiz (Anthony to Katty)
(27:03–32:05)
- Gaza without Hamas (“True or false?”)
- Both agree: true, but “almost impossible” due to popular support and logistics.
- Israel–Saudi Abraham Accords
- Both recognize normalization is key, but ignoring Palestinians (again) is a mistake.
- Massive economic development
- Previous economic initiatives went nowhere; local leadership consistently rejected “money for peace” overtures.
- Toppling the Iranian regime
- Dangerous unpredictability if successful, given the Iraq precedent.
- Core Problem: All solutions founder on intractable interests, especially Palestinian and Israeli maximalism.
5. Economic Development and Terrorism
- Anthony floats the (Trumpian) idea: redevelop Gaza as a flourishing, American-protected region, giving non-Hamas Palestinians incentives to cooperate.
- Katty rebuts: “If terrorism were just a function of economics, you probably wouldn't have had 9/11. Osama bin Laden was not a poor person…Just because you give them the Ritz Carlton in Gaza doesn't mean you're going to suddenly wish away [terrorism].” (35:34)
- Ethnic Cleansing Warning: Forcibly removing Palestinians is “literally definitionally ethnic cleansing” (Anthony, 36:15) and a non-starter globally.
6. Trump 2.0: Rule by Ratings
- Media Management: Trump’s new White House is fixated on daily media attention, slick content, and using executive orders as press moments.
- “It's really about the ratings…He wants an enormous amount of attention and enormous amount of eyeballs…This is a ratings grab, and…they're doing an amazing job.” (Katty, 41:00)
- Notable turn of phrase: “At the moment, it's boringly shocking. But what happens when it becomes shockingly boring?” (Katty quoting Ed Luce, 42:52)
- Media Dependency: Anthony notes the symbiotic relationship, wondering when—if ever—the media “batshit crazy meter” will max out.
7. Trump’s Trade and Tariff Policy
- Reciprocal Tariffs: Trump seeks “reciprocal” tariffs across the board, disrupting decades of US open-trade leadership and placing tariffs even on key allies.
- “Wherever your tariffs are, we're going to have ours right where yours are…that negates 85 years of US history.” (Anthony, 44:09)
- Katty’s analysis: Trump now issues tariffs without previous carve-outs; this time, his administration is more hardline than during Trump 1.0. (48:41)
- “Family Analogy” for Geopolitics:
- Anthony likens US trade approach to choosing whether a wealthy family member supports the rest (“It’s better for all,” 50:16), criticizing Trump’s transactional “pay-to-play” mentality.
8. Weakening of American Alliances
- Tariffs on allies contradict Trump’s own “spheres of influence” doctrine, which would logically dictate protecting allies, not penalizing them. (53:45–54:26)
9. Limits of Executive Power & Institutional Resilience
- Checks and Balances: Katty predicts the judiciary and financial markets, not Democrats, will serve as the main checks on Trump, given Congressional dysfunction. (55:11)
- Scenario Debate: What if Trump ignores court rulings? Could US marshals really arrest a sitting president? Both express skepticism, but Anthony warns of real dangers to the rule of law.
- “When you go down this slope where you have one leader that wants to break the system because he thinks he's right and the system is wrong, you hurt the capital markets…you hurt the legal system…you get people scared about the arbitrary nature of what autocrats do…” (Anthony, 57:05)
- “Decentralized systems like the American government…last a long time…because they are not beholden to one person. This person wants to break that system.” (Anthony, 58:15)
10. Counterfactual: If Mike Pence Had Not Certified 2020
- Katty recounts speculation that had Pence sided with Trump post-January 6, it might have triggered a legal/constitutional crisis so severe courts and military would have prevented Trump from running again—a “kicked can” on institutional reckoning. (58:37–60:55)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)
- King Abdullah’s discomfort: “That was the most excruciating Oval Office visit I think I’ve ever seen…looks like he’s in a hostage video…” — Katty, 04:05
- Trump’s Middle East vision: “He wants to own Greenland. He wants the Canadians to be the 51st state…he wants to do it.” — Anthony, 15:41
- Katty on Trump’s spheres of influence: “Donald Trump has this view of foreign policy and America's role in the world, which is very…imperial in a way.” — Katty, 16:25
- On media saturation: “At the moment, it’s boringly shocking. But what happens when it becomes shockingly boring?” — Katty quoting Ed Luce, 42:52
- On economic development as a solution: “Just because you give them the Ritz Carlton in Gaza doesn’t mean you're going to suddenly wish away [terrorism].” — Katty, 35:34
Timestamps for Major Segments
- Trump’s Gaza Proposal & King Abdullah’s Visit: 02:56–11:57
- Historical Context & Monarchies’ Dilemma: 11:57–16:25
- Spheres of Influence, Multipolar World: 16:25–23:22
- Comparing Biden & Trump on Gaza/Ukraine: 19:19–23:22
- “Pop Quiz” — Four Middle East Objectives: 27:03–32:05
- Economic Incentives & Roots of Terrorism: 35:34–36:38
- Trump’s Media & Messaging Approach: 41:00–42:52
- Trade Policy, “Family Analogy,” and Alliances: 44:09–55:11
- Limits of Executive Power, Rule of Law Scenarios: 55:11–60:55
Tone and Style
Conversational, occasionally irreverent; deeply informed with a blend of skepticism and world-weary realism. Katty provides journalistic context and diplomatic nuance, while Anthony interjects with historical references, insider anecdotes, and blunt assessments (“nonsensical idea”, “he wants to own Greenland”).
Summary Takeaways
- Trump’s Middle East ambitions are viewed as unrealistic, destabilizing and historically tone-deaf, but not without a shrewd (if reckless) logic.
- His administration is ruled by spectacle and ratings; policy substance often takes a back seat to media attention and personal accolades.
- The hosts see waning American dominance, with structural checks shifting away from politics to the courts and markets.
- Underlying much of the analysis is the fragility of Western institutions under pressure from populist, personalist politics—and the open question of how long they will hold.