Podcast Summary:

The Rest Is Politics: US – Episode 61

"From Reagan to Trump: America’s Slow Divorce from Europe"

Date: February 19, 2025
Hosts: Anthony Scaramucci (“The Mooch”) & Katty Kay

Episode Overview

This episode explores the shifting relationship between the United States and Europe, focusing on the apparent unraveling of the transatlantic alliance that has defined global security since World War II. With Trump’s policies and rhetoric signaling an “America First” approach and European concerns about being abandoned, Anthony and Katty debate whether the partnership is facing a true “divorce” or a temporary rough patch. Issues include US disengagement from European security, the NATO dynamic, the ongoing war in Ukraine, negotiations with Russia, and questions around Europe’s capacity to defend itself.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. A Divorce in Progress: The End of the Old Transatlantic Order

• Opening Framing: Katty likens the US-European split to a difficult divorce, with Europeans feeling abandoned by a previously steadfast partner.
  “This feels like divorce. You and I have both been through a divorce, Anthony. ...the Europeans at the moment feel like they are on the receiving end of their long term spouse telling them they're no longer very interested.” (03:51)
• Anthony jokes about Katty’s ability to stay amicable with ex-spouses, using that as a metaphor for potential future US-European relations. (04:43)

2. J.D. Vance in Munich & Trump’s Explicit Message

• Katty recounts J.D. Vance’s direct speech at the Munich Security Conference, telling Europeans they're “on their own” and accusing them of relying too long on US military might.
  “America first really means Europe last. [Trump] has no love for Europe. He thinks Europeans have freeloaded off America's security umbrella for far too long...” (06:53)
• The administration's focus is now on China, not European security.
• Even a Democratic future president may not reverse the pivot away from Europe, with instability and “no bedrock of continuity” spooking allies.
  “There's no bedrock of continuity. ...That's what it looks like at the moment, but your heart is not doing well.” (07:59)

3. America’s Historical Role: Protection vs. Interests

• Anthony reflects on traditional US foreign policy maxims—protecting the West, containing Russia, supporting neighbors to the south. He questions whether these pillars are now being abandoned. (08:34)
• Katty contends that Trump’s conception of "protecting the West" is mercantile (tariffs over military alliances), and wonders if the US even cares about the fate of places like Poland or the Baltics. (09:15)

4. NATO, Article 5, and Bargaining Chips

• Discussion on US threats to withdraw NATO troops or block Article 5 protection for Europeans who intervene in Ukraine.
• Katty points out Senator Marco Rubio’s attempt to soften Trump’s approach, trying to preserve some aspects of traditional US leadership. (09:50)

5. Negotiating Ukraine: A “Prussian” Approach

• Anthony criticizes the US and Russia negotiating the end of the Ukraine war without Ukrainian representation.
  “Donald Trump and Russia are going to decide the Ukrainian war ending without the Ukrainians. That's fairly Prussian, right?” (13:25)
• Katty details efforts within the Trump administration (Rubio, Gabbard, Hegseth, Miller) to “cut [Europe] loose” and possibly extract rare earth minerals as “payback” from Ukraine. (14:29)

6. Rubio’s Dilemma: Moderating Extremes from Within

• Marco Rubio is depicted as a “softener” trying to wield influence and avoid more extreme Trump administration outcomes:
  “I think Marco Rubio thinks, well, look, I can be here as the intermediary ... that would be the case if it was just the hardliners.” (15:43)

7. The European Response: Strength through Abandonment?

• Audience question (Daniel Wood): Will Trump’s sidelining of the EU/UK lead to a “stronger Europe”?
• Katty notes that EU/UK military spending and arms production are ramping up, with the potential for Europe to fund Ukraine’s defense lines independently.
  “They are stepping up their military production capacity ... They do also have one big point of leverage, which is this $300 billion in Russian reserves...” (18:19)

8. Historical Responsibility: US Pushback on Defense Burdens

• Anthony highlights how the US postwar establishment discouraged European rearmament, resulting in current discrepancies in military responsibility.
  “The United States rightly or wrongly told the Europeans to stand down ... They basically, Eisenhower was like, look, I do not want the West German government rearming.” (20:54)
• Katty reiterates that US protection was always as much about containing the Soviet threat close to home as it was about benevolence toward Europe (22:31).

9. Why Trump Is Soft on Putin

• Audience question (Mark James): Why be conciliatory to Russia if its economy is tanking?
• Anthony speculates about Trump's mysterious affinity with Putin, mentioning past rumors of financial entanglements and “a money trail somewhere in there.”
  “What is this with Vladimir Putin? ...he sees Vladimir Putin as another person that could potentially help him make money ... I don't know what is, what they have on him. ...I'm not even going to explain the PP tape.” (26:05)
• Katty adds there may also be a “cultural affinity” due to shared anti-woke, anti-liberal, anti-LGBTQ+ stances and a projection of masculine strength.
  “Putin has a very anti woke agenda and this administration is very driven, particularly with Elon Musk and J.D. Vance... there's a cultural affinity there.” (29:14)

10. Is MAGA Just Trump or a Lasting Movement?

• Audience question (Vic Hannelly): Is MAGA sustainable beyond Trump?
• Katty is skeptical any successor can equal Trump’s grip as a personality cult, noting America’s long-term shift but the unique energy of Trump’s movement. (32:00)
• Anthony underscores Trump’s “consistent amorality” as his unique brand and why imitators fall short.
  “Donald Trump's anchor is amorality and is consistently threaded. Those other guys are garden variety politicians ... with lots of equivocation.” (32:27)

11. Trump, Zelensky, and (Im)Morality

• Katty wonders why Trump dislikes Zelensky, considering his personal courage.
• Anthony:
  “He doesn't like Zelensky because Zelensky didn't play with him... If you're tough and moral, Donald Trump hates you. If you're tough and amoral, you're in the pantheon of the access of Donald Trump.” (33:25)
• Reflection on the halted Ukraine arms shipments and Zelensky’s refusal to be “bribed” in the 2020 “perfect phone call” saga. (34:50)
• Katty shares insight that Trump “respects” Zelensky for not releasing the incriminating call audio—Zelensky stayed out of American politics. (35:43)

Notable Quotes

• Katty Kay:
  “This feels like divorce...Europeans at the moment feel like they are on the receiving end of their long term spouse telling them they're no longer very interested.” (03:51)
• Anthony Scaramucci:
  “America first really means Europe last. ...He thinks Europeans have freeloaded off America's security umbrella for far too long.” (06:53)
• Katty Kay:
  “There's no bedrock of continuity. ...That's what it looks like at the moment, but your heart is not doing well.” (07:59)
• Anthony Scaramucci:
  “It's not 4D chess. It's Trump's whims ... Trump's attitude is it's very walling off America. It's an isolationist attitude.” (20:40)
• Anthony Scaramucci:
  “If you're tough and moral, Donald Trump hates you. If you're tough and amoral, you're in the pantheon of the access of Donald Trump.” (33:25)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:51 – 05:44: US-Europe “divorce” analogy, fallout from Munich Security Conference
• 06:53 – 09:15: Trump’s worldview: tariffs, indifference to Europe, focus on China
• 13:25 – 15:43: Ukraine negotiations without Ukraine, Rubio’s moderating role, rare earth “payback”
• 18:19 – 20:40: Can Europe fill the security gap? Leverage of frozen Russian reserves
• 20:54 – 22:31: Roots of US dominance in NATO and consequences for Europe
• 26:05 – 29:14: Trump's personal/financial/cultural affinity for Putin and Russia
• 32:00 – 33:25: MAGA as personality cult vs. enduring movement
• 33:25 – 35:43: Trump’s animus for Zelensky, moral consistency, and Ukraine weapons saga

Conclusion

Anthony and Katty guide listeners through the evolving drama of US-European relations, emphasizing that the Trump years have accelerated a longer-term American reorientation away from Europe. They warn of the risks inherent in abandoning old allies, debate whether Europe can or will step up, and interrogate the personal politics behind the major players. While much uncertainty remains, their conclusion is clear: the alliance faces real and potentially lasting change, driven by both shifting geopolitics and volatile personalities.

Next episode Monday, 3pm EST / 8pm UK time.