Podcast Summary: "Will Trump Make Europe Great Again?"

The Rest Is Politics: US — Episode 63
Date: February 25, 2025
Hosts: Anthony Scaramucci ("The Mooch") & Katty Kay

Overview

In this engaging episode, Anthony Scaramucci and Katty Kay analyze how Donald Trump’s shifting approach to Ukraine, US foreign policy, and relations with Europe could impact not only the ongoing war but also the balance of global power. They draw parallels between current political rhetoric and historical propaganda, debate the rise of far-right forces in Europe (especially Germany), and question whether US disengagement might paradoxically strengthen European unity and independence.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Rhetoric on Ukraine: “Who is the Aggressor?”

[03:38–09:19]

• Katty highlights the surreal reversal in Republican talking points regarding the Ukraine war, describing administration officials forced to defend positions they seem to know are untrue about who started the war.
• Cites Donald Trump’s reluctance—on Fox News, even after five prompts—to label Putin the aggressor:

  “On the very last time, Trump said, okay, yeah, they invaded, but that's not important. It wouldn't have happened if I hadn't done it.” (B, 05:45)

• Scaramucci compares the situation to Orwellian tactics—leaders lying openly to shape reality:

  “...if you read Orwell as a manual, then you're supposed to tell lies. When you're a strong leader, you're an autocratic leader, you tell lies.” (A, 06:30)

• The hosts discuss whether Trump is a “cult leader” or simply exploiting the loyalty of his base to bend truth for strategic reasons. Katty prefers the phrase “cult of personality” over “cult leader.”

2. Negotiation Tactics & Reality Manipulation

[08:14–11:01]

• Katty shares how some Republicans justify Trump’s inconsistencies as necessary for negotiating strength (“...what he says is acceptable because it's giving him strength” (B, 09:19)).
• The hosts note the potential for Ukrainian refusal—even if Trump strikes a deal with Putin, Ukrainians may continue to resist, shifting to a “guerrilla war.”

3. Has the Ukraine War Benefited Putin?

[11:01–12:43]

• Katty analyzes: While Russia has suffered huge losses and economic damage, for Putin the emotional/strategic value of Ukraine is paramount, and he may play a longer game.
• She warns Putin could “rebuild” and take further hostile actions in several years if left unchecked.

4. Counterfactual: What If the US Had Taken a Harsher Stand?

[12:49–15:01]

• Scaramucci poses a scenario: If Biden had immediately threatened military reprisals, would it have deterred Russia?
• Katty responds that US caution was due to fear of nuclear escalation, leading to a slower and more cautious support for Ukraine.

5. Starlink, Intelligence, and Ukraine’s Survival

[15:01–17:35]

• Listener question: Could Ukraine defend itself if US support (Starlink, intelligence) ends?
• Katty emphasizes: “...Ukraine really needs that satellite communications and it really needs America's intelligence support.” (B, 15:14)
• Scaramucci says Trump’s approach to extracting resources from Ukraine (“mineral deal”) is “blackmail” and unworkable.

6. America's Approach: Shift Toward Multipolarity

[17:38–19:05]

• Scaramucci criticizes Trump’s transactional, “might makes right” world view and predicts it’s a losing long-term strategy:

  “When the strong move on the weak, the strong always lose... the weak are going to get together and they're going to knock out the strong.” (A, 18:12)

7. European Reaction: The German Elections & Defense Independence

[20:32–24:51]

• Katty explores: The German far-right’s gains (AfD) are deeply troubling and could inspire more fragmentation in Europe.

• She highlights Chancellor-to-be Merz’s statement:

  “Europe now has to find a way to beef up its own security and not have to depend on the United States... it has to do so fast.” (B, 21:24)

• Katty suggests Trump’s bullying may actually galvanize European defense cooperation.

• Scaramucci warns that America’s “export” of right-wing populism (and Trump’s influence) could further fuel the rise of extremist politics in Europe.

8. Protocol, Unity, and the New European Response

[25:42–29:06]

• Example: Trump snubbing Macron at the White House symbolizes the break in protocol, hinting at American disregard for allies.

• Katty’s hope: European leaders (Macron, Starmer, Tusk, Merz) should form a unified front to confront challenges, rather than appease Trump individually.

• She notes, however, that populism in Europe is not solely a US import—economic stagnation and migration are real drivers for the far right.

• Scaramucci:

  “What makes America strong is dissent against the majority... I think those of us that are in dissent need help from our European friends.” (A, 29:58)

9. Markets & Economic Risks Under Trump

[31:03–32:24]

• Katty relays a conversation with a skeptical Wall Street executive:

  “He's going to cause a recession, and it was totally unnecessary, and he's going to do it and he's going to pay the price.” (B, 31:28)

• Scaramucci agrees, citing hedge fund manager Steve Cohen’s view that Trump’s policies risk triggering a recession.

10. Populism’s Circular Flow: Europe and the US

[31:28–32:57]

• Audience member Mark points out that populism started in Europe.
• Scaramucci concurs, but says now “it’s feeding on each other”—US and European populist impulses boosting one another.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On truth-bending in politics:

  “When you're a strong leader, you're an autocratic leader, you tell lies. And so you get enough people to believe those lies.”
  — Anthony Scaramucci, [06:30]

• On US-Ukraine policy:

  “The Ukrainians have to accept it... The risk for Donald Trump here is that he negotiates whatever he thinks is a good deal for him. And the Ukrainian public says we're just going to have a guerrilla war.”
  — Katty Kay, [10:14]

• On historic strategy lessons:

  “When the strong move on the weak, the strong always lose... they may win the battle, but they lose the war.”
  — Anthony Scaramucci, [18:12]

• On European self-reliance:

  “Europe now has to find a way to beef up its own security and not have to depend on the United States. And... it has to do so fast.”
  — Katty Kay on Merz, [21:24]

• On populism’s transatlantic feedback loop:

  “It came out of Europe and it's gotten regurgitated and sort of remixed in the United States and is pumping back into Europe.”
  — Anthony Scaramucci, [32:24]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:30–09:19]: Political doublespeak on Ukraine, the “cult of Trump”
• [11:01–12:43]: Is the war working for Putin?
• [12:49–15:01]: Hypothetical: what if the US backed Ukraine more forcefully from the start?
• [15:01–17:35]: Starlink, US intelligence, and implications of US withdrawal
• [20:32–24:51]: German elections, rise of AfD, Merkel’s (Merz’s) call for European defense independence
• [25:42–29:06]: European unity v. appeasement, protocol at the White House, impact of Trump’s demeanor
• [31:03–32:24]: Market jitters, Trump and recession risk
• [32:24–33:41]: Populism’s roots and feedback between US and Europe

Final Thoughts

The episode closes with a lighthearted exchange about coffee, Italian-ness, and the quirks of transatlantic culture, but the major message is clear:
Trump’s transactional, disruptive approach to both Ukraine and Europe is forcing a reassessment of old alliances and could—perhaps unintentionally—spark a new era of European strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, the risks of economic downturn and rising far right populism loom on both sides of the Atlantic.

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode is a timely, critical examination of the cross-currents shaping the future of the West, with sharp insights, candid debate, and more than a few memorable turns of phrase.