The Ringer Fantasy Football Show

Episode: "9 Players We’re Not Drafting This Year"
Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Craig Horlbeck
Date: August 28, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the annual debated topic: which players the hosts are simply not drafting for 2025 fantasy football. Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck break down their "do not touch" lists—discussing overvalued talents, potential regression candidates, and situations ripe for disappointment, while peppering in their irreverent banter and observational humor.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Rashee Rice’s Suspension & Kansas City WRs

• [01:00 - 06:35]
  • Rashee Rice’s six-game suspension has landed exactly where the hosts expected; its beginning-of-season placement is "better" than if it came mid-year, but he’s a risky pick.
  • Draft tier insight: Rice should be drafted after upside rookies (e.g., Ricky Pearsall, Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka), but before injured or "boring" vet WRs.
    • Heifetz: "I took him in the Ringer league... This is one of those picks where it’ll be the reason I won or lost."
    • Kelly: "He could be a top 12 guy... The vibes for the offensive line are really good right now. This might be a resurgent Patrick Mahomes season..." ([04:10])
  • Xavier Worthy: Seen as a boom/bust deep threat, unlikely to be a high-volume WR. Group consensus: Worthy is “always going to get schemed touches,” but lacks true alpha potential. ([06:04])

Quick News Roundup

• [07:03 - 13:24]
  • Adam Thielen trade: Thielen goes to the Vikings, largely as depth while Addison is suspended. Jalen Coker in Carolina could emerge as a slot receiver.
    • Kelly: “He has a good connection with Bryce Young... I think that was just like a good example of their connection.” ([08:41])
  • Detroit’s rookie WR Isaac Tesla: Not yet a standard-league draft pick, but worth monitoring.
    • Craig on draft hypes: “All of the rookie wide receivers getting a lot of hype... value's been stripped away.” ([10:38])

Atlanta OL Injuries & Impact

• [13:24 - 16:47]
  • Caleb McGary (RT) out for the Falcons (important, especially as Penix is left-handed); Storm Norton (backup) also hurt. Discussion of minor RB/WR downgrades, but still confident in Bijan Robinson as a top-4 pick.
    • Horlbeck: “He's still going to get the volume. He's still going to be explosive. It's just like a little more worrisome now, particularly to me for Penix. Less so for Bijan.” ([16:04])

Belichick & Gold Digger Trademark

• [16:50 - 20:09]
  • Comic relief on Bill Belichick and Jordan Hudson trademarking “Gold Digger,” with speculation on their PR awareness and genuine confusion.
    • Heifetz: “Trademarking things that existed before you were alive is preposterous.” ([18:14])

Main Segment: Players We’re Not Drafting

Start: [20:09]

1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers

• DK Horlbeck ([21:00]): Going as QB7, far too expensive for a non-rushing QB whose 7.1% TD rate screams regression.
  • Craig: “This is his eighth offensive coordinator in eight seasons.” ([21:00])
  • Stat drop: “Baker’s average touchdown rate for the first six seasons...4.5%. Last year? 7.1... Only behind Lamar.”
  • JJ Zachariason reference: “Guys with that spike in touchdown rate drop by 20% in fantasy points the following year.” ([21:58])
  • Heifetz: “What are the odds Baker outdoes Dak? … It’s not a six-round difference.” ([22:24])

2. DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers

• Craig ([24:27]): Finally off the DK bandwagon. Metcalf’s situation is volatile—new team, erratic QB in Aaron Rodgers, unknown role in a crowded, shifting Steelers offense.
  • “There is a very–like, the situation where Aaron Rodgers gets really fed up with DK Metcalf to me feels likely.”
  • Discussion: No faith the Steelers will be more than a “park and bark” offense.
  • “He’s going to be really volatile.” ([25:37])

3. Caleb Johnson, RB, Steelers

• Heifetz ([27:31]): Too many hurdles for a rookie—needs to impress Rodgers, master out-of-shotgun runs, and play for uncertain Arthur Smith/Jalen Warren split.
  • Heifetz: “This is not Bijan Robinson… this is a guy who’s a third-round pick… Kenneth Gainwell might be playing over Caleb Johnson week one.” ([28:44])
  • Jalen Warren over Johnson as the value pick.

4. Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders

• Horlbeck ([29:35]): Regression candidate—last year’s 13 TDs is a career outlier, targets/yards per game uninspiring, more target competition in 2025.
  • Craig: “Even considering what he did last year, he was still only the WR15… you need that to happen again” ([30:32])
  • Heifetz: “Hard for us to be like he’s going to join the Puka Nacua range [of superstars].” ([31:53])

5. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens

• Kelly ([37:14]): Just can’t pull the trigger at ADP. Second half last year was great, but hid major red flags:
  • Playing time shrunk (61% snap rate post-injury)
  • Massive TD dependency (11 in ~10 weeks)
  • Isaiah Likely will eat into snaps in 2nd half.
  • “He just needs touchdowns to be valuable… I’ll look at other guys around that spot.” ([38:38])
  • Heifetz Counter: “Mark Andrews is going to have a huge snap count rate in the first six weeks and he’s actually going to get a ton of stuff. He will have the touchdowns…” ([40:29])

6. Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks

• Heifetz ([42:38]): Phenomenal on a per-play basis but risky due to recurring lower leg/foot/oblique injuries, and Zach Charbonnet (one of the best backups in football) is waiting.
  • “Strike one is all the injuries. Strike two is his backup is literally an elite backup… Strike three as he re-injures the foot…” ([48:06])
  • Prefers Charbonnet 6+ rounds later.

7. David Montgomery, RB, Lions

• DK Horlbeck ([48:32]): Great player, but floor-only play and upside is almost entirely “if Gibbs gets hurt.” Lions lost coaches and OL pieces.
  • “Every year the upside starts to disappear a little bit. So… at ADP, I just never take him.” ([50:07])
  • “He’s kind of the beginning of the upside-is-over tier.” ([53:28])
  • “He is the epitome of you like having him in your flex, but… you’ll never really win your league because of Montgomery unless Gibbs goes down.” —Heifetz ([51:44])

8. Joe Mixon, RB, Texans

• Heifetz ([53:53]): Not expecting him to play or be useful; recommend only as a last-round IR stash, otherwise pass.

9. Chris Olave, WR, Saints

• DK Kelly ([55:10]): “Very good player. I just have not been drafting Chris Olave for the Saints… [mainly] the concussion concern and QB uncertainty.”
  • “Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave are closer in the way they’re going to be utilized… than their ADP would indicate. I would just rather wait for Shaheed.” ([55:21])
  • Heifetz: “I just wrote down: I don’t like watching Chris Olave play… I kind of watch him through my fingers. Kind of like Tua.” ([57:04])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Baker Mayfield’s 2024 spike:

  • "Baker Mayfield's average touchdown rate for the first six seasons of his career was 4.5%. Last year was 7.1... Mahomes has done that one time in his career. Joe Burrow has never done that. Josh Allen has never done that." —Danny Kelly ([21:44])

• On DK Metcalf and the Steelers (transition):

  • "There is a very, like, the situation where Aaron Rodgers gets really fed up with DK Metcalf to me feels likely." —Craig ([25:37])

• On why not to draft David Montgomery:

  • “He is the epitome of you like having him in your flex, but… you’ll never really win your league because of Montgomery unless Gibbs goes down.” —Heifetz ([51:44])

• On the danger of "floor" picks at the wrong spot:

  • “He’s kind of the beginning of like, the upside is over tier…” —Horlbeck ([53:28])

Key Timestamps for Segments

• 01:00: Rashee Rice status and the Chiefs WR strategy
• 07:03: Adam Thielen trade and WR depth
• 13:24: Impact of Atlanta’s OL injuries for Falcons stars
• 16:50: The “Gold Digger” Belichick trademark saga
• 20:09: Main segment: players the hosts aren’t drafting and why
• 21:00: Baker Mayfield
• 24:27: DK Metcalf
• 27:31: Caleb Johnson
• 29:35: Terry McLaurin
• 37:14: Mark Andrews
• 42:38: Kenneth Walker
• 48:32: David Montgomery
• 53:53: Joe Mixon
• 55:10: Chris Olave

(Fun banter, tangents, and golf detours occur throughout; detailed extended golf/handedness debate at ~59:17 to episode end.)

Recurring Segment: Golf Talk, Lefty Bias, and Riffing

Timestamp: [59:17 – End]

• Lengthy, humorous digression on golf etiquette, lefty vs righty mechanics, and the philosophy of handedness in sports.
  • Craig: "Can you email us at ringerfantasyfootball@gmail.com if you’re a neurologist, kinesiologist, or coach who can explain which hand matters most in a two-handed swing?" ([81:38])
• They muse about sandbagging, "gimme" culture in golf, and learning handed activities as kids.

Tone & Chemistry

The show is casual, comedic, and self-aware. Hosts strike a balance between actionable analysis and lively tangents—often relishing in their “life advice” and extremely relatable frustrations with fantasy football’s volatility.

Takeaways for Listeners

• Don't overpay for last year’s outliers (Baker, McLaurin, Mark Andrews, etc.)
• Be wary of the “boring, floor” veterans right as the draft exits its upside window (Montgomery, Walker)
• Draft rookies and upside WRs before suspended/risky players unless cost outweighs concern (Rice, Xavier Worthy)
• Monitor ambiguous backfields and entrenched committees more carefully than ever

If you missed the episode, this summary gives you the hosts’ conviction plays, their personal, sometimes emotional reasoning, and plenty of in-jokes that’ll have returning listeners chuckling—and might even convert a few golf or lefty-sports skeptics.

Listener Homework

• Email the show if you have:
  • Expertise on left/right-handed sports mechanics or fantasy trivia
  • Trivia questions for the upcoming "Showdown Time" segment

[End of summary]