Podcast Summary: The Ringer NBA Show – "Buy the Hype or Bet the Under? Real Ones Team Totals for the 2025-26 Season"

Release Date: July 12, 2025

In this engaging episode of The Ringer NBA Show, hosted by Logan Murdoch, along with co-hosts Howard Beck and producer Cliff Augustine, the trio delves into the highly anticipated 2025-26 NBA season. The primary focus of the discussion centers around predicting whether NBA teams will exceed ("buy the hype") or fall short ("bet the under") of their projected win totals. Utilizing odds from betting platforms like FanDuel, the hosts provide in-depth analysis for numerous teams across both conferences.

Opening Remarks and Guest Absence ([00:00] - [03:05])

Logan Murdoch kicks off the show with his signature enthusiasm, highlighting the absence of Raja Bell, who is reportedly stranded at the Atlanta airport rental car lot. The hosts joke about Raja's perennial struggles with travel logistics, setting a lighthearted tone for the episode.

Logan Murdoch: "Raja Bell, man. Dude, just. We're gonna."

Howard Beck: "[...] We have to skip four minutes and no basketball talk."

Brooklyn Nets Analysis ([06:41] - [11:01])

The discussion begins with the Brooklyn Nets, who have undergone significant roster changes in the offseason.

Cliff Augustine: "Over. Under 20 and a half wins for the season. Minus 120."

(Note: The transcript likely contains a typo regarding the win total. Assuming the correct over/under is higher, possibly 54.5 wins.)

Howard Beck: "[...] I think we're both landing on under anyway just because, like, you look at that roster and it's just an absolute mess."

Logan Murdoch expresses skepticism about the Nets' ability to surpass the projected win total due to inconsistent roster additions and uncertainties surrounding player health, particularly Cam Thomas and their defensive strategies.

Logan Murdoch: "I am very curious to see how Michael Porter Jr. is going to come into a team where he's expected to give veteran advice."

Conclusion: The consensus leans towards betting the under for the Nets, citing roster instability and defensive concerns.

Houston Rockets Breakdown ([11:40] - [19:41])

Moving to the Houston Rockets, the hosts discuss significant acquisitions, including Kevin Durant (KD), and the team's improved depth.

Cliff Augustine: "Houston Rockets at 54 and a half. How we feeling about the Houston Rockets at 54 and a half?"

Logan Murdoch cautiously bullish on the Rockets, praising KD's leadership and the team's offensive capabilities while acknowledging potential health issues.

Howard Beck: "They have plenty of other guys. You got Tari Eason, you've got a man Thompson like you've got."

Conclusion: Howard opts to take the over, anticipating a strong season due to the addition of KD and enhanced team depth.

Atlanta Hawks Insights ([20:10] - [25:00])

The Atlanta Hawks are next, with an over/under set at 46.5 wins.

Cliff Augustine: "The Hawks have a chance. [...] I'm taking the over. I'm gonna say, like, 48 wins."

Howard Beck: "[...] I think the Hawks are projected as the fourth best team in the east, which is wild."

Logan Murdoch remains optimistic, highlighting key players like Trae Young and roster improvements despite concerns about Chris Paul’s health.

Conclusion: The hosts agree on taking the over for the Hawks, expecting significant improvement from last season's 40 wins.

Denver Nuggets Evaluation ([25:30] - [30:21])

The Denver Nuggets, with an over/under of 53.5 wins, receive mixed reviews.

Cliff Augustine: "Denver Nuggets, how we feeling?"

Logan Murdoch: "I just want to take a quick disclaimer. [...] I'm still taking the under."

Howard Beck: "They had a great offseason. [...] I'll be over for sure."

Despite their championship pedigree and offseason acquisitions like Cam Johnson and Bruce Brown, concerns about regular-season performance and game effort lead Logan to favor the under, while Howard supports the over based on roster improvements.

Conclusion: Divergent opinions with a split between taking the under (Logan) and over (Howard).

New York Knicks Discussion ([30:30] - [40:04])

The New York Knicks feature with an over/under of 52.5 wins.

Cliff Augustine: "New York Knicks over 52 and a half. Last season, the Knicks won 51 games."

Logan Murdoch: "I just don't know if Mike Brown is the right fit."

Howard Beck: "[...] I'm going over on the 52 and a half."

The conversation revolves around the hiring of Mike Brown as head coach, roster stability with players like Jalen Brunson and Mikhail Bridges, and improving defense with Mitchell Robinson.

Conclusion: Both Howard and, after hesitancy, Logan agree to take the over, expecting modest improvement to surpass the 52.5 win mark.

Los Angeles Lakers Evaluation ([43:00] - [52:00])

The Lakers, with an over/under set at 48.5 wins, are scrutinized for roster changes and player health.

Howard Beck: "[...] They lost Dorian Finney Smith and replaced him with Deandre Ayton."

Logan Murdoch: "I want to see what he does with that kind of pressure."

Concerns about LeBron James's age, Deandre Ayton's development, and overall roster construction lead to a cautious outlook.

Howard Beck: "I'll go over on the Lakers."

Logan initially conflicted but ultimately supports taking the under due to uncertainties surrounding key players and overall team dynamics.

Conclusion: Both hosts lean towards betting the under for the Lakers, anticipating challenges despite star power.

Orlando Magic Review ([70:16] - [71:55])

The Orlando Magic have an over/under of 50.5 wins.

Cliff Augustine: "Orlando Magic over 50 and a half. They won 41 games last season."

Logan Murdoch: "The Orlando under unless Paolo turns in like a six-year, six-year LeBron."

Howard Beck: "I'll take the under."

Despite additions like Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones, concerns about offensive efficiency and player development lead to a consensus on taking the under.

Conclusion: Both Cliff and Howard affirm their decisions to take the under, expecting the Magic to fall short of the 50.5-win threshold.

Minnesota Timberwolves Assessment ([71:55] - [78:12])

With an over/under set at 50.5 wins, the Timberwolves are evaluated based on their young core and reliance on Anthony Edwards (Ant).

Cliff Augustine: "Timberwolves over 50 and a half. They won 49 games last season."

Logan Murdoch: "I'm putting a lot on Ant right now."

Howard Beck: "I'm gonna take the under just to make Peanut mad."

Logan Murdoch opts to take the over, banking on Anthony Edwards' performance, while Howard chooses the under due to concerns about depth and supporting cast.

Conclusion: A split decision with Diverging bets—Over (Logan) vs. Under (Howard).

Philadelphia 76ers Insights ([53:59] - [71:33])

The Philadelphia 76ers, with an over/under set at 43.5 wins, are discussed amidst player health concerns and roster uncertainties.

Cliff Augustine: "Philadelphia 76ers over 43 and a half. Last season, they won 24 games."

Logan Murdoch: "[...] I'm taking the under, bro. Let's say, like, 32 wins, bro."

Howard Beck: "I'm going over."

Amidst significant injuries to stars like Joel Embiid and Paul George, and potential roster moves, Logan expresses pessimism, while Howard remains cautiously optimistic assuming health improvements.

Conclusion: Contrasting views with Logan taking the under and Howard opting for the over, depending on player health.

Golden State Warriors Review ([59:38] - [66:31])

The Warriors, facing an over/under of 46.5 wins, are analyzed for their aging core and front-office struggles.

Cliff Augustine: "Golden State Warriors over 46 and a half. They won 48 games last season."

Logan Murdoch: "[...] Steph's getting older. I think I'll take the over."

Howard Beck: "I'll go over."

Despite concerns about Stephen Curry and Draymond Green's ages and potential front-office conflicts over players like Jordan Poole, both hosts decide to take the over, anticipating sufficient team performance to exceed 46.5 wins.

Conclusion: Unified decision to bet the over, expecting the Warriors to maintain competitiveness despite aging stars.

San Antonio Spurs Analysis ([77:08] - [81:36])

With an over/under of 43.5 wins, the Spurs are portrayed as a team poised for a resurgence.

Cliff Augustine: "San Antonio Spurs over 43 and a half."

Logan Murdoch: "I think Wimby's gonna take another leap."

Howard Beck: "I'll hit the over."

Both hosts express optimism about the Spurs' young talent, particularly Wembanyama (Wimby), and their potential to exceed the projected win total.

Conclusion: Consensus to take the over, expecting significant improvement and development from key young players.

Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder Briefs ([82:34] - [83:22])

Before wrapping up, brief mentions are made of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder:

• Cleveland Cavaliers: With an over/under of 56.5 wins, Howard Beck takes the over, anticipating continued success from stars like Darius Garland and Evan Mobley.

• Oklahoma City Thunder: Set at 62.5 wins, Logan Murdoch opts for the under, citing concerns about sustaining championship performance and potential fatigue.

Closing Remarks ([83:00] - End)

The episode concludes with lighthearted banter and anticipation for the season finale scheduled for July 24th. The hosts tease possible special segments and interactions with regular contributors, maintaining the show's engaging and personable atmosphere.

Notable Quotes:

• Howard Beck ([01:29]): "Raja throws us a curveball. [...] What was it like an hour before we're coming on?"

• Logan Murdoch ([10:05]): "How are you gonna use him as a number one option while trying to bring Amin along?"

• Howard Beck ([16:29]): "You got Tyrese Eason, you've got a man Thompson like you've got. [...] I think this team is primed to just start stomping people."

• Logan Murdoch ([43:35]): "What are you doing with this kind of pressure and, you know, we'll see what happens."

• Howard Beck ([49:04]): "So I'm tempted to go under on vibes alone here."

• Logan Murdoch ([65:42]): "But that is the facts. They have fumbled a lot of things because of this stuff that's going on in the front office."

Conclusion:

This episode of The Ringer NBA Show offers a comprehensive analysis of NBA teams' potential performance in the upcoming season, focusing on over/under win totals. Hosts Logan Murdoch and Howard Beck provide insightful commentary, balancing statistical projections with qualitative assessments of team dynamics, player health, and roster changes. While some predictions align between the hosts, others showcase differing perspectives, enriching the discussion and offering listeners a well-rounded view of the expected trends in the NBA's 2025-26 season.