Divvying Up the Midseason Title Pie | Group Chat

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Ringer NBA Show – "Divvying Up the Midseason Title Pie | Group Chat"

Release Date: January 28, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Ringer NBA Show, the Group Chat segment features hosts Justin Verrier, Wosny Lambre (Big Waz), and Rob Mahoney engaging in an in-depth analysis of the NBA's midseason title race. The trio introduces a unique "title pie" concept, allocating percentages to various teams based on their championship potential. This structured approach allows listeners to gain a clearer understanding of the competitive landscape as the season progresses.

Title Pie Allocation

Boston Celtics – Leading the Charge (25-26%)

Big Waz opens the discussion by allocating 25% of the title pie to the Boston Celtics, emphasizing their status as frontrunners. He states,

"I think they're still clearly the title favorites. They're healthy right now, which I think is going to be the most determinative in terms of how well they end up doing in the playoffs" ([07:04]).

Rob Mahoney concurs, assigning 20% to the Celtics, while Justin Verrier slightly increases his share to 26%, citing recent performance fluctuations and concerns over player consistency.

Oklahoma City Thunder – The Dark Horse (32%)

Justin Verrier designates the Oklahoma City Thunder as his top contender with a substantial 32% of the pie. Highlighting their impressive point differential and solid regular-season record, he remarks,

"They are an absolute buzzsaw. But the problem with the Thunder is statistically they profile as one of the best teams in history" ([10:09]).

While acknowledging their historical prowess, Big Waz expresses skepticism about their playoff resilience, particularly against seasoned teams like Dallas, citing,

"I just think their playoff situation is going to be tough" ([13:21]).

Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Dallas Mavericks – Solid Contenders (10-16%)

The conversation shifts to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Dallas Mavericks, each receiving between 10% to 16% of the pie. Big Waz assigns 10% to each of these teams, appreciating their depth and potential if key players remain healthy. Rob Mahoney and Justin Verrier further discuss the Cavaliers' defensive struggles and Memphis's reliance on second-chance points, respectively, acknowledging their threats but also their vulnerabilities.

Denver Nuggets – A Balanced Threat (6%)

Justin Verrier includes the Denver Nuggets with a 6% share, noting their improved chemistry and strategic roster moves. Big Waz highlights

"Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are carving out legitimate championship DNA" ([46:31]).

Despite their offensive strengths, concerns about defensive consistency remain, with Rob Mahoney pointing out potential pitfalls in high-pressure playoff scenarios.

Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers – Fringe Contenders (1-0.5%)

The Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers receive minimal portions of the pie, 1% and 0.5% respectively. Big Waz is particularly dismissive of the Clippers, likening their odds to mere crumbs:

"They're not even a crumb team even for me" ([70:35]).

Conversely, Rob Mahoney acknowledges the Clippers' potential if key players like Kawhi Leonard can maintain their performance and health, albeit assigning them a negligible chance.

Milwaukee Bucks and Houston Rockets – Long Shots (4-5%)

The Milwaukee Bucks and Houston Rockets are categorized as long shots with 4% and 3% respectively. Justin Verrier expresses optimism for the Bucks if Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard can synergize effectively, while the Rockets' physical playstyle is seen as a wildcard that could disrupt stronger teams but lacks the offensive prowess to secure a championship.

Phoenix Suns – Conditional Hope (0.5%)

Finally, the Phoenix Suns are allotted a 0.5% share, contingent on potential strategic acquisitions like Jimmy Butler:

"Jimmy Butler is a transformative player and the level of star that frankly could get you a whopping 0.5% of the title pie" ([75:06]).

This minimal allocation acknowledges their defensive strengths but underscores the improbability of them securing the championship without significant roster changes.

Trades and Roster Considerations

A substantial portion of the discussion revolves around potential trades and their impact on the title pie. Justin Verrier and Big Waz debate the feasibility and strategic value of acquiring key players such as Zach Lavine for the Lakers in response to Anthony Davis' demands for a versatile center. They explore how such moves could marginally shift a team's position in the title race but ultimately conclude that transformative trades are unlikely to drastically alter the standings.

Conclusion

The Group Chat effectively breaks down the midseason title race through the innovative lens of the title pie, providing listeners with a quantified perspective on each team's championship potential. While the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder dominate the conversation as top contenders, the analysis remains balanced by recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of other teams vying for the title. The discussion underscores the dynamic nature of the NBA season, where health, performance consistency, and strategic moves play pivotal roles in shaping the path to the championship.

Notable Quotes

• Big Waz on Celtics' dominance:

  "Boston Celtics are getting the big piece of chicken of this proverbial pie" ([07:04]).

• Justin Verrier on Thunder's statistical prowess:

  "They have the best point differential since the NBA merger and is also the second best in NBA history" ([10:16]).

• Rob Mahoney on Cleveland Cavaliers' defensive issues:

  "They've been one of the worst defenses in the league over the last couple weeks" ([25:03]).

• Big Waz expressing doubts about Clippers' title chances:

  "They're not even a crumb team even for me" ([70:35]).

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from "Divvying Up the Midseason Title Pie | Group Chat," providing a clear and structured overview for listeners and NBA enthusiasts alike.

Transcript

[Logan Murdoch]

What's poppin everybody? Logan Murdoch here from Real Ones on the Ringer NBA show and I wanted to invite you to pull up and kick it with Raja Bell, Howard Beck and myself during All Star Weekend for our live podcast. We're going to be at the historic Punchline Comedy Club in San francisco on Saturday, February 15th at 2pm pregaming all the All Star festivities and you never know who might stop by. Get your tickets now by heading over to ringer.com events. That's ringer.com events. Hope to see you there.

[Justin Verrier]

This episode is brought to you by GNC at gnc. Nutrition isn't just a department, it's the whole store. Nutrition for bigger gains. Sculpting that revenge body and to have you feeling like you're ready to go. GNC spent 90 years perfecting nutrition and protein that literally tastes like cake. Spot so you can look like cake. You got goals. GNC has results. Visit your local GNC store or shop [e-mail] this episode is brought to you by Smucker's Uncrustables. There's nothing like a snack that comes in clutch. So who's the real mvp? Uncrustables the best part of the sandwich. It's a round crimped sandwich made with soft pillowy bread filled with peanut butter and jelly. It goes straight from the freezer to your lunchbox, making it easier to pack lunch and sprint out the door. Now that's a morning win. You'll find Smucker's Uncrustables in the freezer aisle. Hello and welcome to Group Chat. I am Justin Verrier and joining me, Rob Mahoney. Big Waz. What's up gentlemen? Are we excited for Mac McClung being back in the slam dunk contest? What's going on with your world?

[Rob Mahoney]

We always are. It's Mack McClung season.

[Big Waz]

Mac McClung, who like three summer leagues ago I thought had a good shot of actually making a actual NBA roster. Clearly I was wrong.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, he did watch.

[Big Waz]

He's currently on a two week contest roster. Yeah, exactly. But shouts to Matt McClung. And also I want to give a shout out to the class of 2005St. Francis Prep Terriers. We celebrated our 20th year since graduating the Prep. Got together with a bunch of guys and gals from my years over there in Fresh Meadows. Was a great time. Just wanted to highlight my fellow terriers of 2005 at the top of the show.

[Rob Mahoney]

Waz I support you and the Terriers. That said, going to A high school reunion in 2025 is insane business, and I don't know what you're doing. We live in a world where you can access and reach out to these people anytime you want. Why are you going to a high school reunion?

[Big Waz]

So that's the thing. That's what I thought, too. It's a couple of things. One, I think our high school is a bit cultish in the sense that, like, people, like, are still close and bonded to the people that they met at that high school. And two, like, I agreed with you until I got there, and there was, like, a lot of people, like, you know, the algorithm might serve me, their kids every now and again, but, like, I completely forgot that I used to hang out with these people, you know, at a certain time of my life. So there was a decent amount of people that. That was the truth. I think counting on the algorithm to keep up with people, I think is a foolhardy mistake. And touching grass and doing stuff like, physically being with people out in the world is more important than you realize.

[Rob Mahoney]

Rob Mahoney, words to live by. I just don't know that personally. Anyone that I'm not currently in contact with from something like high school, for example, I don't know. You know, we went our separate ways. We had our times. I think we can all live in peace.

[Big Waz]

You know, what I will say, too, is that the school was very good at not having stuffed dorks in the locker culture. So I don't think. Not that you were getting stuffed in the locker. Well, I'm just saying, like, you were.

[Rob Mahoney]

Gonna be the one stuffing me in the locker. Like, let's. Let's all be honest about what's happening here.

[Big Waz]

I'm just saying everybody was generally happy to see other people. It was nice.

[Justin Verrier]

Okay. I don't know how we made the Transition from Mac McClung to your high school.

[Big Waz]

I just wanted him.

[Justin Verrier]

You did it. You definitely pulled it off. I appreciate that. What else is going on? Anything? I'm kind of soft. Launching a mustache here. I don't know if you guys can see that on the. On the camera.

[Rob Mahoney]

How different is the mustache?

[Big Waz]

Fuller than the rest of the beard? I'm not.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah, it's a little darker. A little darker. But unfortunately, Woz showed up on. On the Zoom here with a full, meaty mustache, and I'm just like, God damn, he put my mustache. Mustache in the locker, basically.

[Big Waz]

Lot of people claim that I joined the military ever since I debuted this, but I'm still a civilian. Don't worry, guys.

[Rob Mahoney]

I remember we had. We had floated a bit once upon a time that if Reed shepherd went on to win Rookie of the Year, we would all grow stashes. How. How long ago that seems, how naive we were about all of that.

[Justin Verrier]

There's still hope for us because we have the Wemby bet. And I think as part of that, we tossed around the idea maybe, like, French style, like. Oh, sure, Mustaches. Yeah. I don't know if that's French per se, but at least goes along with the whole vibe. I'm just looking for any excuse to basically grow a mustache at this point is what it comes down to, but. And I just want you guys to join me on this journey, you know?

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, I will join you in saluting your mustache. For the record, though, your facial hair doesn't look much different than it normally does to me, which is to say always resplendent.

[Justin Verrier]

Bad lighting, you know, a little darker. I'll. I'll come next time. I'll make the contrast a little bit more pronounced, but I have this question for you guys. And, Rob, maybe you could feel this. What did you have for breakfast today?

[Rob Mahoney]

A single banana and a cup of coffee.

[Justin Verrier]

Okay. Can I interest you in some pie to go along with it?

[Rob Mahoney]

You already know you can.

[Big Waz]

This is.

[Justin Verrier]

That's.

[Rob Mahoney]

I have to say, Justin, of all your. Of all your creations, the most beautiful and perverse that you have ever brought to group chat. The title pie, the championship piece. This is my favorite time of the year.

[Justin Verrier]

My. My. Frankenstein.

[Big Waz]

Yeah.

[Rob Mahoney]

Or your Frankenstein's. Your various. Monster, I guess.

[Justin Verrier]

Monster. Yeah. So last year around this time, we did a bit where we chopped up the title race based on percentages of that team, the likelihood that they were going to win it. We all come with our own different pies, different slices, different percentages to give to some of the top contenders. And we just, you know, we hand them out. That's what it is. I don't know if I explained that all that well, but you kind of get the gist of what's going on here. And so we're going to do that again. Talk about some teams, perhaps in the trade mix, but also some teams at the top of the league. Do you guys want to start top to bottom here?

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I think so.

[Big Waz]

Let's go.

[Justin Verrier]

Okay. W. Why don't you give us your. Your biggest piece of piece?

[Big Waz]

My top slice goes to the Boston Celtics. I think, pretty unsurprisingly, if you've been listening to the show the last few weeks. My, my, you know, positivity. Towards them is unwavering. And I gave them a 25%. 25% of the pie I'm giving to Boston. I just think they're still clearly the title favorites. They're healthy right now, which I think is going to be the most determinative in terms of how well they end up doing in the playoffs. If they are relatively healthy, I anticipate them making the finals. And I think the continuity, the collective sort of experience and championship know how, along with the talent and the really tough style of play, that they will eventually prevail. So, yeah, for me, they got 25% of the pie. And, like, in terms of where everybody else is on the pod, like, I have them with the lion's share. You know, Chris Rock used to say that the dad always gets the big piece of chicken. Boston Celtics are getting the big piece of chicken of this proverbial pie as I mix up metaphors here, but maybe this is a chicken pot pie.

[Justin Verrier]

That's good.

[Rob Mahoney]

Let's see. Now we're talking. Although on the Chris Rock point, the big piece of chicken, I. I don't want chicken breast, per se. I feel like I. I want first dibs, but I don't know that I want the biggest piece. I. I want maybe like. I want like a. A, you know, a leg, thigh combo that. I think that's what I'm out for.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah, that's.

[Big Waz]

Yeah. I like when they keep that as one piece. Yeah.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah. Okay. Well, now that we got that settled, probably on the Boston Celtics, so I.

[Rob Mahoney]

Actually have them second in my overall pie slice ranking, but I think. I think we're in similar ballparks. I'm at 20% for the Celtics. Justin, where did. Where did you have them percent?

[Justin Verrier]

I'm at 26. I think recent results have me a little bit more mixed on what can happen down the road here. Also starting to wonder if you guys noticed that everyone that played for Team USA has basically been not bad per se, but seemed a little gassed overall. And it's weird because, like, Wembanyama, for instance, is having, like, a breakthrough year. Jokic has never been better. But specifically with Team usa, it seems like the opposite of the bump is happening where, like Derek White, for instance, we thought would be in the all star conversation. He's been okay. He was better against over the weekend in that game against the Mavs. They looked like the team we all thought they would be, but, like, those type of guys just really haven't had the sorts of consistency that we're used to seeing. From the Celtics.

[Rob Mahoney]

Maybe the one exception on the Olympic front. Tyrese Halliburton getting his Paris revenge. You know, that's what I'm saying. You know, the key is to save yourself during Olympic season. Come back stronger than ever, at least during the second part of the NBA season.

[Big Waz]

Just, just to be clear here, Justin, The Celtics are second in the pie and they're at 26.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah, that.

[Rob Mahoney]

And that's fascinating.

[Big Waz]

You have them second in the pie and they're At 20. So who's your number one pie getter and what's their percentage of the pie here?

[Rob Mahoney]

There's only one answer, right?

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah, I have Oklahoma City Thunder.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Justin Verrier]

At a robust 32% of pie.

[Rob Mahoney]

32%?

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah. I basically have the Celtics in the Thunder with almost, I think over half the pie. I think we're at 58% in total. Best point differential in the, in the NBA. Best record in the league. Also has the best point differential since the NBA merger and is also the second best in NBA history. So better than the Bulls dynasty. Better than the warriors when they won 73 games. Right now they're an absolute buzzsaw. But the problem with the Thunder is statistically they profile as one of the best teams in history. Unfortunately in practice, especially when they play PJ Washington, it just like it doesn't always meet what you would hope it for to be. So they're shaky at 32, but I think very clearly are the favorites at this point.

[Big Waz]

So if you had to pick one team that you thought was going to win the NBA championship this year, today you would pick okc?

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, yeah, that's literally what we're doing.

[Big Waz]

Well, it's also part like fascinating to me.

[Justin Verrier]

The west is an easier pass. And that's, that's going to be a theme for me where it's like it's Thunder and then it's everybody else.

[Big Waz]

I completely disagree with that.

[Rob Mahoney]

Easier path. Yeah, I think, I think it's. We can push back on that a little bit. I think the next up contenders in the east might be a little stronger than in the west in some ways. Like the Cavaliers have made an incredible regular season case. The Knicks are an amazing like third team to just be sitting there and we're going to get into those teams. The west is a little more balanced and there's a bunch of teams that I could see making some noise. What's interesting is whichever one makes its way through the gauntlet is going to be really impressive by that point. It's just so hard right now to know which of those sort of next subwestern conference teams is really going to be in that class?

[Big Waz]

So for me, the reason why I don't think the west is easier by any stretch is this, like if I name you these three teams and they're reasonably healthy against OKC in the playoffs, Dallas, Memphis, Denver, you think they blow these guys away in a playoff series? I don't at all. And I think they likely lose. I, I pick Dallas still when healthy to beat them in the playoffs. Right. So that's why OKC to me, like, you know, they're my second team, but like, I just think their playoff situation is going to be tough. And again, you know, Chet hasn't played all year basically and we want to see what he looks like when he comes back. I just, just the reliance on these young guys to make big ass shots in huge moments and like make the right decision, make the right read against, you know, some of these more veteran laden teams. And just like, you know, obviously they still have the size deficiency in, on the interior when it comes to rim protection. I just think they have glaring holes. Not that they're not freaking great. Obviously they're blowing people away. I don't know, man. I think when you get it, as granular as the postseason gets, they, they just don't look like the 96 bulls. Like this just doesn't look like the 96 bulls to me, like at all.

[Rob Mahoney]

They do have that, the rock solid pervasive regular season case though, like Justin, that's, that's why I'm understanding where you're coming from. Because to give a team 30 plus percent title odds, they have to be historically dominant, they have to be wrecking people on a regular basis. And then you contrast that with as you're saying, while some of these very specific matchups that can give the Thunder trouble and the Dallas, I have no idea what to make of the Dallas one at this point, considering not only is PJ Washington wrecking these guys, they've lost to the Mavericks three times without Luka playing in any of those games.

[Justin Verrier]

Right.

[Rob Mahoney]

Like there's just something about that matchup that clearly one gets in the Thunder's head. The physicality of those games I think messes with them a little bit. And yeah, when Luca and Kyrie are out there, that's a different level of shot making that can bust up one of the best defenses we've seen in modern NBA history. But overall I think I might be a little higher than you was on how they would fare against Denver or how they would fare against Memphis or how. How they might fare against a lot of the other teams in the Western Conference field. Just because I think their defense travels about as well as any, like, singular factor in the NBA right now.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah. Their size is an issue, and I'd hope they address it at the trade deadline. That's something that we could talk about. I don't think they'll make a move, in part because they went out and gave Elks Caruso an extension. And so it seems like their books are plotted out well in advance. And to do something at the deadline kind of disrupts their entire blueprint for success there. El Crusoe, by the way, shooting like 30% from the floor. I don't know how that extension is going to really age there. He like, clearly good defensively, but kind of part of like, like the. An example of their issue where it's like they have all these defenders. They need a little bit more zest offensively to overcome some, some of the size concerns that they have. But you guys mentioned it. I mean, Hartenstein has been out now, what, two extended stretches and then Chet hasn't played for. For months at this point. We'll see if he can like, just immediately step into this. But they have solutions down the road there. And I think if it's Chet Hartenstein plus what they have, I like that in a matchup, especially when Dallas is like, Dallas is in disarray. I don't know what Luke is going to be even when he comes back. Kyrie has this bulging disc issue. They just haven't looked quite right.

[Big Waz]

Lively just left for two and a half months to three, which is just a tough blow. But again, if the timeline is correct, he'll be back by April.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah.

[Big Waz]

Which is. They need the playoff.

[Justin Verrier]

They need him to, to have that size advantage because the 48 minutes of. Of center hell is basically part of their identity. It's part of why they made the finals last year. And so it's actually more of a. Some of the rest of the west than it is for the Thunder. And I think balancing out.

[Big Waz]

That's why.

[Justin Verrier]

I don't know. I just, I see them as a finals team, like at a minimum at this point.

[Rob Mahoney]

At a minimum. I mean, they got. They do have to earn it. I think I'm probably somewhere in the middle on these two things where I am clearly bullish on the Thunder was. I can't quite get to your level in terms of the, the, the pessimism of the youth. I think at some point these guys all grow Up. And at some point, you go through enough playoff battles where things click into place, you have to prove it, you have to get there. You have to show that you can handle those sorts of, like, tactical challenges in a way that, honestly, they didn't well enough last season against the Mavs, but maybe they do this time. Like, maybe they have crossed some critical threshold. I think the one thing I want to. I want to put, like, an asterisk on is the Chet factor. You described Justin, where I. I just want to make anything that he gives the thunder this season more icing on the cake than it is. Oh. Him and Hartenstein together as like, this. This formidable duo, which they will be kind of going forward. But for now, like, we're still about a month away from him even getting an update on his pelvic fracture. So let's. I think, let's wait and see with Chad a little bit.

[Big Waz]

So I think there's two ways to look at it. Right. Some people would say that the reason that they lost to Dallas was shooting luck. Right. Um, they. They generated some decent shots against Dallas. Dallas is like, pack the paint mentality against them, which was just like, yeah, go ahead, Kayson Wallace, take a shot. Like, I don't care, you know, Other Jalen Williams, take a shot.

[Rob Mahoney]

Like.

[Big Waz]

Like, I still think dort, like, these guys are still going to be who the kickouts go to. And it's. And it's cool. In the regular season, like, Kenridge Williams, you missed two threes in a row. You know, that was the end of our two straight possessions. And like, ah, it's fine. Don't worry. Regular season group interviews, blah, blah, blah. In the playoffs, when, you know, each possession is treated like basically life or death. And now it gets swung to you after those two missed and you have a record scratch possession instead of you firing that third one up with reckless abandon. That's what I'm talking about with the young guys. It's like, I just don't see these guys as being able to handle the moment. But again, everybody knows my biases. I hate the young guys.

[Justin Verrier]

So I'm just gonna say this sounds more about the post game interviews than it does anything about their shooting success.

[Big Waz]

Yeah.

[Justin Verrier]

But to circle back to the Celtics there, Rob, you have them second.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yes.

[Justin Verrier]

Is it more based on recent results? Because they did have a stretch where they were five and five. Like, what's driving the Celtics not being your number one?

[Big Waz]

Yeah.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think they're a great team. That, as we've discussed previously, isn't perfect. Is Susceptible to some of these shooting lulls and currently is susceptible to some of like the regular season malaise in a way that is totally healthy and normal. But then when you project forward, you think about, okay, every. Everyone is locked back in. The best version of the Celtics is going to be back on the floor in April and May. That version is still beatable, Is very, very good, is very, very tough. I think relative to the east, is pretty well positioned just because I like. Part of the problem with the Cavs case is it's kind of hard to think about these two teams matching up against each other in Boston and Cleveland and thinking that Cleveland would win that specific matchup that they would be able to out Celtic the Celtics. Even for as overwhelming as their offense has season. There just aren't that many matchups on the board in the east that you would see giving the Celtics considerable trouble. There's. There's a couple. Mainly the ones that bring like a lot of wing physicality. The ones that can disrupt the rhythm like those. Those teams could make Boston earn it. But ultimately I, I think for me it's less about, oh, I don't trust the Celtics than it is. I, I'm just so impressed by what the Thunder are bringing to the table. That feels like a presumptive finals matchup for me. Things can happen. Lots of wild cards in play, certainly, but right now that's kind of the one I would be betting on. And if that matchup comes to pass, I actually like the way that the Thunder can cause the Celtics trouble. I actually like the way that they could disrupt some of that rhythm in a similar way where it's. It's not the physicality that say the Orlando Magic would bring in a matchup against the Celtics, but the way they fly around is tailored to beat teams like Boston.

[Justin Verrier]

I, I think that the Celtics, on paper, when you look at it, doesn't seem so concerning because they did have the 5 and 5 stretch, which like, you know, a 500 stretch for a good team is like, those happen. They also haven't lost a back to back game in a really long time. They've only done it once this entire season. And so like, I can see why from a broad view, it doesn't seem like anything's going on. But the one thing I've noticed is they don't get on top of teams as much as they used to, where they get rolling and it's like 20 points and it completely warps the way the other team is playing. And that's a concern to Me, because they are that type of team that tends to overwhelm teams. That's how they win a lot of their games. And so if that's not the case, are they in more of a dogfight? And do some of the inconsistencies with, for instance, Jalen Brown or Derrick White, do those start to show much? Jrue Holiday not being the same player he was last year, Chris Stopps not being kind of like the, the stopgap for some of their problem solving, that's when I start to worry about them. Overall. I still have them. Second, I still think they're going to make the finals, but like, if the margins aren't the same for this team, I think they are a different team.

[Big Waz]

Yeah, I hear all of that. And they definitely haven't been. You know, they started off the season really hot. I think they were 17 and 4. Something crazy like that. 19 and 4 even something like that. I think the team that we saw in the playoffs last year, which was a buzzsaw, yes, the competition in the east is better. I just haven't been dissuaded that this team is fundamentally different than what they did in the playoffs last year. So that's why to me, they still number one with a bullet.

[Justin Verrier]

Who do you have was at number three then?

[Big Waz]

Number three. I have actually a three way tie.

[Rob Mahoney]

Wow.

[Justin Verrier]

Wow.

[Big Waz]

So OKC is number two at 15. So that's 40% of my pie is gone with the top two. Three way tie between Cleveland, Memphis and Dallas, who I'm still holding onto with dear life. They're all having 10% of the pie. So that's my number three.

[Justin Verrier]

It's on a pie.

[Big Waz]

Yeah, they're all getting 10% chunks of the pie because I see them as in that next group of challengers and I think they're in their own tier in terms of that next group. So we're now mixing Pie talk with Tear talk. This is, this is NBA podcasting at its finest. And for me, again, like Cleveland, what they've put on the floor this year is undeniable to me. Even if they've tripped up recently, losing two straight games to the Rockets and stuff like that, I think it's undeniable. I think Memphis, just their combination of talent and depth and athleticism and they could go size, they could go speed, they can do all of these different things. I'm like, y'all know I'm in the tank for Memphis and Dallas. Like I said, if their team is intact when the playoffs come, meaning Luka's on The floor. Lively's on the floor. Najee Marshall's on the floor. Of course, you know, Kyrie and Klay and the rest of these guys.

[Justin Verrier]

PJ Washington, Hardy, Dante Exum, Maxi Kleba.

[Rob Mahoney]

With a broken foot, Jared Dudley.

[Big Waz]

If these guys can show up intact, I still think they are a formidable foe in the playoffs. So, yeah, that's my next tier.

[Rob Mahoney]

Where do you want to start with those? Justin? I'm. I have the Cavs next up. I. I'm guessing you might also.

[Justin Verrier]

13%. 13%. Pie.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm at 16%, I think. I think this is some of the. The Celtics number coming down a bit, too. Again, not because I think the Cavs would beat the Celtics one on one, but if anything happens to the Celtics, the Cavs are ready to pounce. If the. If the Celtics have any significant injury, if they get held up against an opponent, if they just kind of run out of steam. We know title defenses are notoriously difficult. Here you have Cleveland, a team that has also been a buzzsaw in the regular season, slipping up a bit of late. I would say more defensively than offensively. They still have complete commitment to the fun stuff, which is to say the ball movement, the shooting, the scoring. None of that has really fallen off for the Cavs. They've been one of the worst defenses in the league over the last couple weeks. That feels like classic January stuff, especially a team that has stormed out of the gate that is maybe finally starting to settle into an actual regular season rhythm. As far as what the ebbs and flows of this stuff should be, ultimately, I just think they're wildly impressive. I'm not. I'm not also not concerned about the losses to the Rockets. I'm a little concerned about losing to the Sixers because literally no one should be losing to the Sixers. But such is life in the NBA in January. And so if. If there is going to be a direct challenger to the Celtics to, if not unseat them, then capitalized on some Boston regression, it has to be Cleveland.

[Justin Verrier]

I think I'm a little bit concerned with the defensive fall off, in part because it coincided with Evan Mobley not being in the lineup. I believe they were one in three without Mobley with his calf injury. He's since come back. Didn't look quite right the other day, but I think that's my primary concern with them overall, where it's like this seems like a type of team that needs all of its parts really humming in order to have success. And without one of them, it's just like, oh, this gets a little dicey. And especially if the defense is going to be so contingent on Mobley being awesome all the time, that's when I start to get worried because like, as we've seen in the playoffs, it's a lot of just star shit just happening and guys just kind of breaking free from the beautiful system. We talked so much about depth going into the season. Now we're kind of at Occam's Razor where it's like, you know who sick fucking Carl Anthony Towns is jacking threes and Jalen Brunson just pivoting his way to 30 to 40 points a game. And so that's why frankly, I have the Cavs and the Knicks pretty close. I have 13 for the Cavs, the Knicks with 11, because I find those teams pretty similar. And honestly, if you even look at their statistical profiles, they're both offensive driven teams with like mediocre defenses. And so credit to the Cavs. Their regular season has been awesome. I just don't see much of a difference. And if anything, in a playoff series, I actually think the Knicks might win that 2, 3 matchup.

[Big Waz]

Yeah, I, I think the Knicks and Cavs are like pretty close in terms of how I see a playoff scenario playing out. I think the Cavs, the reason why I have them just significantly below the Celtics specifically is that the Celtics are built to take you out of that ball movement stuff. And it's just going to be incumbent upon Garland, upon Mitchell and even Mobley now to be like, hold up, Jaylen Brown is guarding me right now. I gotta beat him. You know, Tatum is guarding me right now. I have to beat him. Jrue Holiday is guarding me right now. I have to beat him.

[Rob Mahoney]

He's brutal.

[Big Waz]

It just doesn't feel like that's a thing that's going to happen this season. And I know it's become a meme on NBA Internet to say that Donovan Mitchell just hasn't been great against the best teams and best defenses. I would argue that's been the case for like four playoffs in a row now or three. Not four, maybe three. But yeah, he's got to be better and it would be incumbent upon him. But like, I'm not going to take away from what they're doing in the regular season. The Celtics sustain a decent injury. You know, that just take. That just breaks up the continuity of their defensive integrity. Then, you know, they could be had too. I just think Cleveland is just a notch below the top two guys in OKC in Boston. And again like if we, if we got into. I know the conferences are different or whatever, but if Cleveland played Memphis or Dallas in the playoffs, like, I personally don't think they would be some heavy staunch favorite, you know, and I like what they're doing and I do think they have a chance to, to win the championship. I just, you know, I just think it's a slim. Pretty like as compared to their peers in the standings, it's a slimmer one.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I, that's where it gets tough. Cause I, I do think the commitment they have to their offense and the flow that they play with is incredibly successful against a certain caliber of team, no matter what. Where they do come up a little bit wanting sometimes and where the question marks are is in that ability to create one on one stuff when it really matters. In the highest pressure situations, those questions are going to be there until Donovan Mitchell does it or doesn't or Evan Mobley does it or doesn't or did a Garland go down the line. Whoever it is you trust in those situations, like they are going to have to prove that that's their burden ultimately for this run to prove themselves as Celtics level title contenders. And until they do that, I think it's perfectly natural, regardless of what, you know, their point differential says, to say that Boston is a deserving defending champion who has the benefit of the doubt. And Cleveland still has to show us a little something.

[Justin Verrier]

Point differential, not that much different.

[Rob Mahoney]

No.

[Justin Verrier]

9.4. Cleveland, Boston at 9, come back down.

[Rob Mahoney]

To earth a little bit. And as far as the Knicks in this conversation, I have them a little bit lower. So I have this. The Cavs at 16%, the Knicks at 8%. And some of that is what you mentioned, Justin, about. You know, the Cavs are a team that really can't afford to lose anybody, including, you know, a stretch without Evan Mobley. And everything kind of falls apart defensively. I mean, the Knicks have put themselves in a nice spot in the east in part because they have juiced their best players and just played them as much as humanly possible, as Tom Thibodeau. Teams are out to do that goes great and to be frank, resembles playoff basketball in a lot of ways. Right. This is what teams do. The problem is, will these guys be there in the end in their healthiest, most capable form by the end of a whole season of having done that. And I also, I also look at them as a team that look there. The Knicks have three games left against both the Cavs and the Celtics. They have a pretty tough remaining schedule that may ultimately shake up where they are in the standings, but I'm going to be watching with bated breath in those specific games to understand a little better, like, what the matchup play is for New York and what buttons they can press in those kinds of series because they have advantages, and they have unique advantages relative to almost any other team in the league. But those are. Those are tough. Like, that's a really tough competition. And the Celtics, in particular, are not an easy team to scheme and push around.

[Justin Verrier]

They put up 143 points against the Sacramento Kings the other night. And, like, the Kings are a credible defense. I wouldn't necessarily say they're, like, a staunch one. They're, like, right there in the middle. They're in the middle of the league this year.

[Big Waz]

They're incredible in the Garden, I tell you that much.

[Justin Verrier]

Hey, they've been on fire since Doug Christie. Just, like, got that cowbell kingdom sort of vibes going back out there. But for me, I think part of why I even had the Knicks at 11, which I kind of wanted to put them higher, is just the fact that, like, if they're probably going to lose somebody, like, they really haven't had much of an injury hit to their primary core. Five Towns is kind of, like, a little bit iffy here, but I'm waiting for the OG and an OBI injury at this point, and if they lose one of those guys, they're pretty much cooked. They have five guys, and so there really isn't any margin for error. But if they get to a series healthy man, I think that they can make a Finals.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah. Can I say one thing at the risk of sounding like an absolute lunatic, which is I haven't hated the campaign minutes lately. I feel like he's, like. He's actually kind of given them something that I appreciate.

[Big Waz]

He's earned. He's definitely earned his minutes. And I think it's so weird. The Knicks are a team with, like, their identity is offense. They outscore people. Like, it's just weird that a Tibbs team, we've come this far, and, like, that's who they are. They beat people on the offensive end, and campaign has, like, been like, yo, I'm, you know, I'm basically a gunner on this team. I have a green light when I come in to just take shots, you know, and it served them. It really has, and it's served him. It's been cool to see Landry Shamet, you know, it was funny, man, watching. Watching the game on Saturday against the Kings, and he, like, he comes out and he makes three like quick first half threes and all of that. And before that I was telling my buddy who I was with, I was like, this is like the seventh time I've been told that Landry Sham is gonna, he's gonna be some bench contender, blah blah blah. Then he made and I was like, I told you Landry Shammy was going to be that guy. You should have listened to me. So, you know, shame coming back from injury. Looks nice. I, yeah, I do think it is a matter of health. OG is just, I think after Townsend and Brunson of course, like completely indispensable guys. I think OG is the next guy because he still is their best perimeter defender but now, you know, he's making his threes which he has for a while now to his credit. But he kind of lives in the pain and he offers this like alternative to paint, paint touches where obviously Towns can sometimes do his post up stuff. But OG as soon as somebody who's not a like size defender is on him, he's planning himself on the low block and just waiting for a pass and oftentimes getting to the free throw line and getting buckets and you know he had his drive game working on Saturday. They are a pretty impressive team. When they get rolling it is going to be a matter of like can you play an entire starting line of 38 minutes a game for a whole regular season and playoffs? That remains to be seen.

[Justin Verrier]

I heard some Knicks fans talking about Hawk Purdy recently, like we need to get him more minutes. And I was like this is a sickness that is just unlike anything else we have in the league. But you also had Memphis was in, in your ten piece pies. What do you, what do you think about Memphis, Rob?

[Rob Mahoney]

So I have them tied with the Knicks at 8%. Really formidable Western Conference team. It's, it's frankly hard to overstate how absolutely dominant their starters have been in particular just blowing the fucking doors off people. And this is a team that not only has the starters a la the Knicks, the bench, they got incredibly high level depth, they have very high level defense, they have high level athleticism. They have some really inventive on the flight playmaking, particularly from Jaw. I think you're starting to see the outline of a real contender. Their, their half court offense is probably just on the cusp of what you would need to really, really be taken seriously at a, at a level higher than this. But again that's what they have to prove. All these teams in this range have like a Little bit of something that's holding them back from being the Thunder or the Celtics. And I think for the Grizzlies, it's revamped offense, which I think has mostly been a resounding success, is still so reliant on second chance points, is still so reliant on grinding out some stuff that just might not be there for them in the playoffs.

[Big Waz]

They gotta get fast break, they gotta beat you on the boards.

[Rob Mahoney]

And they're. They're good at getting the. Like they're better than taking out the trash than almost anybody.

[Big Waz]

Yeah, they're not gonna generate beautiful looks just strictly off of a, you know, traditional half court offense. But they have the horses to get the junk points. Like, they have the athleticism, they got the speed. You know, they have a free throw magnet in John Morant. Like they have ways to get there. It's just. Yeah, it's not your traditional, just beautiful game. Offense to efficiency.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah, all the indicators suggest they're an awesome team. Like, they're clearly the fourth best team in the NBA record wise. They're like, I think they're tied with Houston even though they don't have the same amount of games for second in the west. Point differential, the net rating, it's all there. And then part of that is because the team is so deep. Just I. The John Moran thing scares the hell out of me. He's missed 19 games and he has had, according to my crack research here, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 different things happening. He had a hip, thigh soreness, knee bruise, back soreness, brain shoulder illness, and I might have missed one or two.

[Rob Mahoney]

Sounds like a man in his 30s, if you ask me.

[Big Waz]

When we talk to Verno. When we talked to Verno on In My Feelings, he said some of that is he hasn't been healthy for the playoffs the last few times and they're being very cautious to make sure he can play in the playoffs. I think that's some of that like extreme caution with JA where it's just like, look, man, we're deep enough that we can tread water without you in the regular season. We need this guy to play in the playoffs. But still, six different injuries in 19 games missed already. Yeah, that is definitely an eyebrow raiser.

[Justin Verrier]

I like what they've gotten from Jaren Jackson this year. We kind of poo pooed him a little bit in the all star talk. Like the usage is like pretty similar to what he was last year when he was just kind of playing through and finding himself on that end, just doing more creation and whatnot. He's been very good for him. I just like when it gets into a horse race. Like do they have enough, especially if Ja's not going to be in there. I don't know. So I had them at 8%, which I think Rob, you said you had them at the exact same but exactly a little different. Bob Woz is at 10. This episode is brought to you by Hyundai Amazon's your Go to for all things hoops, game gear, snacks for the late night tip offs, you name it. And now you can shop for a Hyundai there too. Pick your model and trim from a local dealer, see transparent pricing up front and knock out most of the paperwork online. Then just head to the dealership to finalize the deal. Visit HyundaiUSA.com or call 562-314-4603 for more details. Limited availability only through participating Hyundai dealers in select markets. This program is available for the purchase of new vehicles and is not currently available for lease.

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[Justin Verrier]

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[Big Waz]

Welcome to American culture, brother. Build you up, break you down and build you up again. That's what we do here.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's the dream.

[Justin Verrier]

Just like they don't have lively, I feel like they're like one wing short as well. Just something's not right this year. Even though I agree that like when fully healthy they could be a finals team again. I don't know. Just I don't see it.

[Big Waz]

My, my only reservation about how high I put Dallas is where they're at in the seating now where it's like bruh you guys end up with the eighth or seventh seed because you had to claw your way out the play in because of all these injuries. It's like going to the finals from the seventh seed is going to be tough to do. You know, no home court advantage at all. And then you, you're starting off with, I mean hopefully in their case the Rockets, but possibly, you know, Memphis or something like that. That is, that to me is the biggest reservation. Like it's in terms of like their guys, man. I like, I have as much confidence in them as anybody who isn't the Celtics, to be honest with you.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, jv, I feel like you may be underselling how good their proof of concept is. Like not just the finals run, but even the early stages of the season that you described when Luka was not playing his best, they were still kind of balling out. They're still a really good team whenever their guys are even out there, even if they're not in the best possible form to the point that they're still even now. Even after having Kyrie out, having Luka out. Kyrie now back guys in and out of the lineup. The incredible injury report we already described top 10 on both sides of the ball like that is the body of work they've been able to put together and I am worried as you are was about what the seating could entail, particularly not having lively and now maxi Kleba for an extended period of time puts a lot of strain on your center rotation. And I guess Dwight Powell is also out right now if that's the thing that is relevant to you. They need bodies and they need front court bodies in such a bad way that getting Luka back is going to help. Clearly he's expected to be back before the all star break, which is great news. But where they end up in the standings could be a problem. How like the shape they're in by the end of the year and the stress I would say it specifically puts on Kyrie with that bulging disc is something I'm pretty worried about. Ultimately I'm I think meding out between you guys, which is I have The Mavs at 6 and a half percent, a solid Western Conference contender that if they were healthy I think would be significantly higher. But they are a little bit snake bitten there. There is something. The vibes are not bad but the luck certainly has been terrible. The juju telling you the juju is off.

[Big Waz]

It's not, it's not lining up correctly. Luka is allegedly coming back soon. You know the teams that are ahead of them in the. In the sk. In the conference right now are the Suns, the Wolves, the Clippers, the Lakers. Feels like if you get Luka back, you could catch those teams. Sure end up with a fifth seed, which I think is probably what they should be shooting for, which should ultimately be their destiny so that they're not just, like, faced with the insane gauntlet out the gate. But, yeah, as it stands now, they're ninth in the west. And it's so jumbled, right? Like, this could change in 10 days. Like, up could be down right now. But I think, you know, they. They need to be looking at the Lakers, the Clippers, as, like, we need to hunt those guys down and get our seating higher as soon as Luka Doncic gets back.

[Justin Verrier]

Part of this, for me is like, the historical precedent of, like, looking back at teams that have won it, and we've never been like, oh, the. The Cleveland Cavaliers lost LeBron James for two months, and here they are just powering through the playoffs, just crushing the warriors with Kevin Durant. Like, that just doesn't happen. And so, like, I think those things start to matter because I think it points to, like, consistency and continuity. And also just like, as we saw in the finals as the. As the playoffs went along last year, like, Luca not being quite right mattered. And if we're talking about the slimmest of margins, we're talking about winning a title. Like, I think that's going to happen, especially when the title races is more jumbled up than it's been in history. We've had six straight teams in a row who. Who haven't won back to back. And so I'm curious, though. I haven't heard you guys talk about the Denver Nuggets, who I had above the mavericks in my pie rankings. I had them at 6%. Where are you guys?

[Rob Mahoney]

So I'm similar. I have them basically tied with the Mavs, also at six and a half percent. So was. Where are you on Denver?

[Big Waz]

So I made the Knicks in Denver into the tier below the three that I mentioned before. So they're at them and The Knicks are at 9%.

[Rob Mahoney]

Pretty good.

[Big Waz]

You're not. You're not. You're not. Look, functionally, I don't think the team that. All of these teams that haven't been OKC in Boston are, like, crazy differentiated. Not to me. Even the Cavs, I don't think, are insanely differentiated from Denver. I don't personally believe that. I get it. The stats and the point differential and all of that stuff. Like the streaks that they've been on. I get that. I just. For me, in a playoff setting, I don't think there's some materially better team than Denver is. That's just. Maybe that's my Denver. Of course it is my Denver bias.

[Rob Mahoney]

You're a mountain man, not a lake house guy.

[Big Waz]

Exactly. And so for me, the Knicks in Denver are, you know, they're the last teams that I think can reasonably say we have a chance to win the championship this year. That's where it stops for me. It's Dallas, Memphis, Denver, New York City, Cleveland. Those are the last teams outside of the two juggernauts at the top who can reasonably. Their fans can reasonably think there's hope that we could possibly win the championship this year. Everybody.

[Justin Verrier]

No crumbs.

[Big Waz]

No, these aren't crumbs. No, no, no. These are. These are, like.

[Rob Mahoney]

These are slices.

[Big Waz]

You got this portion. You would be happy with this portion. Yeah, yeah.

[Justin Verrier]

Look at the back of the box. That is the serving size. You start with the Denver.

[Big Waz]

And it's like, precisely that. Like, you know, in terms of championship contention. And so Denver, to me, is the last. They're the last of the cutoff. And it's because of Jokic. It's because of Murray. It's because of the. The, you know, the championship DNA that they collectively possess. And so they're the last team that, like, if they. If one of their fans came up to me in a bar was like, yo, I still think we could win the championship this year.

[Rob Mahoney]

I mean, like, you know what?

[Big Waz]

You're not completely, utterly, foolishly wrong.

[Rob Mahoney]

I don't think they're wrong. In fact, I think they have probably the most improved title case in the west from the beginning of the season. Like, if you would have told us in November that this team would have between a 6 and 10% chance of winning the title.

[Big Waz]

Joker was calling them garbage. Yeah.

[Rob Mahoney]

I mean, I would have thought it would require some massive trade to shake up the core of the team, because that was some bad juju. Those were some terrible vibes. When they were rolling in, a loser.

[Big Waz]

Was turning back the clock on Russell Westbrook.

[Rob Mahoney]

Boy, was it. I think. Look, getting Aaron Gordon back and figuring out Russ and his place in the rotation have just unlocked so much desperately needed flexibility for the Nuggets. And as. As we've been asking for, For a long time, I think taken some of the workload off of Jokic's shoulders in such a crucial way. Like, Westbrook is so good at setting up Jokic for the Easiest shots he gets in any of these games.

[Big Waz]

Just another development. Nuggets related. I don't know if you guys have noticed, but like, Aaron Gordon is like ripping the nets on some of these threes, bro. Like, he is taking it. Like he's clearly. I mean, the numbers are what they are. Like, you know, pretty low volume on the threes. The percentage is the best of his career. But like, I don't know, just watching it, he's taking these shots with so much more confidence. And I think that's obviously a team that's just starved for three point volume anywhere where, you know, this stroud, the dude is convinced himself that he's freaking, you know, Reggie Miller or something. I think that's an important development to look out for.

[Justin Verrier]

I think. I think Rush showed them how to love again is honestly what happened. He not only like stoked the competitive fire with this team and Jokic in particular, like, the, just like the creative juice that Jokic is playing with now and like the verve and like the like the proactivity. He just seems engaged mentally in a way that he wasn't before. To the point where he's like, he's doing the water polo moves where he's like slapping the ball from like across the core and he's doing the big old passes like he is back in a way. And I think a lot of that is a credit to Russ, just kind of like getting him going in a way. I mean, Gordon is coming off the bench right now and Russ is starting. Like, this is a kind of a miraculous outcome.

[Rob Mahoney]

I gotta say, I love a big old pass. It's my favorite kind of pass.

[Justin Verrier]

It's true.

[Big Waz]

Some of it with Russ too, is like he does this like his passing and his like, feeding of the teammates is like super, like deliberate. Like he'll point and do like, he'll point and be like, you stand right there and then do like a deliberate post entry pass. It's just like he's so different than what Murray does when he's like doing more of the ball handling duties. And now Murray has kind of freed himself up to be like, all right, nobody's asking me to be a point guard anymore. Which I never really was, to be honest. I can just go out and get buckets. And I think we've seen an uptick of his, you know, sort of forcefulness with the ball and trying to look for his own shot. I just, you know, I think it's nice. And again, like, just to reiterate, I do think they have a Legitimate claim to say, yo, we have a chance to win the championship this year.

[Justin Verrier]

$50 million. Jamal Crawford is what Jamal Murray is settling into. That's. That's sick.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think he's. I mean, I think he's been better than that. I think he's been, especially lately, finally starting to put it back together in a way that they desperately need. And that frankly, getting to the rack. Getting to the rack. And for all of the. The warm and fuzzies around Russell Westbrook right now, and. And there are many, and there should be. When they get to the playoffs, teams are not going to guard him, especially from three. They're all teams are already guarding him like he's a power forward. What is that going to mean in the playoffs? What are. What are some of Russ's defensive limitations going to mean in the playoffs? The Nuggets are a team that I'm really not worried about their offense as much as you said was. Like, enough of their borderline shooters are hitting right now that you'll see lineups out there with like Gordon and Peyton Watson and Christian Brown at once. And in your head you're thinking, is that enough shooting? And this season it is. Like, all those guys are hitting at just a respectable enough clip that I think there's actually, like, an interesting differential between the respect opponents give them and the way they're actually hitting that benefits the Nuggets. Like, those guys are getting good looks and converting, and that's really healthy for Denver's offense. There's also a lot of players on this team, Russell Westbrook included, Peyton Watson included, some. Jamal Murray included, who just, like, will be completely oblivious on back cuts sometimes. And you'll just see the Nuggets give up a lot of random free points throughout the course of play in a way that's really concerning for. For a team that's vying for the highest levels of competition and trying to be a contender. Like, what's going to hold the Nuggets back ultimately is not, can they score enough? They have Nikola Jokic. I think they're mostly going to be fine on offense, but defensively, they might really be on the edge of a team we can take seriously.

[Justin Verrier]

Well, one of the secrets with Russ's success is that they're playing him enough that they can play through some of the mistakes, that some of the good stuff is highlighted. And that's always been the case with Russ. He'll make a bunch of weird turnovers where he's just forcing things, but if you play him enough minutes, like, he'll do enough amazing things to almost counterbalance that. And I almost wonder, in a weird way, he can only play, like, 25 to 30 minutes. He can't play 15 minutes in a bench roll because you need both of those things. And so the Thunder. Excuse me, the Nuggets occupy this space where it's like, have you seen the Seinfeld episode where George loses his glasses and starts squinting at things?

[Rob Mahoney]

Of course.

[Justin Verrier]

And he's like, one minute he's spotting a dime across the room, but another minute he's confusing Jerry's cousin kissing his Jerry' girlfriend, but it ends up being a horse and like a cop. That's the Nuggets.

[Rob Mahoney]

It was across the street, you know.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah. If you squint, they look like one of the best teams in the NBA. But if you get clear vision, you're like, wait, so how does this team stop anybody in the playoffs? I don't know. They have the size advantage, which. Which will work against a team like the Thunder. That will be tough to. To go against. But to me, I kind of wish they made a trade. And I don't think it's a Zach Levine trade as much as I think that he would fit there. I still think the move is trading Porter for two pieces that help you on both. That if I have two way wings, if I have a Cam Johnson plus somebody else. The problem is, I don't know how you get two very good players from any team at this point that really satisfy that. Because teams typically hold on to those exact players. And so this probably is who they are, but if they make a move, I could see them shooting up this pie ranking.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Justin Verrier]

Who else do you have in the crumbs pile? Cause I'm down to, like, the 1% or lower.

[Rob Mahoney]

Okay. I think I might be a little more favorable on this next class of team. I have three teams between 3 and 5% of the pie. I have the Milwaukee Bucks with 5% of the pie.

[Justin Verrier]

That's a lot of pie for the Bucks.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's a bit. And I think it's. It's contingent somewhat on the fact that they could be in a position to make a play and probably need to make. And have the urgency to make some kind of roster addition before the deadline. I don't know about you guys. I found this. This prospect and divvying up the pie to be very instructive in terms of understanding who probably does need to make a deal and who's probably better off standing pat with what they've got. The Timberwolves are a team that I don't think will make a trade just because I don't know that they have a logical one on the board right now. But I have them with 4% of the pie. And the Houston Rockets, I think are too good to not give something here. And I have them with 3%.

[Big Waz]

So my last crumbs. They're. They're all sharing the last 12% of. I don't know, 12% left.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Big Waz]

I thought you were out of high.

[Justin Verrier]

Okay.

[Big Waz]

No, no, no, no. 12% left. Bucks, rockets, Wolves, Lakers, Lakers. Interesting, because there's still a chance that they actually improve their roster.

[Rob Mahoney]

There is.

[Big Waz]

They have the picks. We're dropping in my feelings today with Yovon, where we talk about it, I don't think they're going to do it.

[Justin Verrier]

Did you put them in the pie just to plug your. Your show?

[Big Waz]

No, of course not. I put them in the pie because they can make a move. They still have Bron and AD yeah. You know, like, even when they were getting their asses handed to them by the Nuggets last year, like, they were competitive games. Like, you know, they finally beat the Nuggets once in the playoffs last year. Sorry, Laker fans. No, but like, I just think like, like this. These teams, you're not going to win the championship this year. But again, the Rockets might trade for an actual star in the deadline. The Bucks might somehow improve the roster. Wolves might coalesce in a way where, like, the talent starts to match the output and it looks closer to last year than it has at any point this year.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's kind of started to. By the way, that their win over Denver, against Denver over the weekend, that's probably their best win of the season.

[Big Waz]

Yeah, so. So I had to put them in this last thing. So that's four teams splitting. 12% of my last 12% of my pie.

[Justin Verrier]

Can we take this slice by slice, as it were? I like that one. Thanks. The Lakers. Why are we doing this thing where AD Wants a center and making it seem like it's not just like a standing request for the past decade? I remember in 2017, when I was still covering the team, he said it to the TNT crew as he was getting nominated for all Star because it was in New Orleans. They had him on to talk about it and he confessed finally, yeah, I would prefer to play power forward. It's something that I'd been burbling. But he never said it publicly. That was seven fucking years ago. And he's been saying the same thing every season since that doesn't work even when in their best of times, when they were winning in the bubble. Yes. Regular season, they were bigger and I can see that leading to more wins. If you have the spacing around that. One, they don't have enough spacing, I think in order to pull that off. And two, when they went down one game to Houston, when they dropped a game in the second round, what did they do? They just put AD and LeBron in the front court because that's the best front court in the NBA. It could be getting a good center, especially if they don't have a stretch. Like it doesn't make sense because until AD shows that he can stretch the floor like it just cramps the spacing up.

[Big Waz]

Getting a good center is one thing. Getting a center so that when you lose Jackson, Hayes, things don't fall apart, I think is a whole other thing.

[Rob Mahoney]

I don't think that's what he's asking for though.

[Big Waz]

No, no, no, that's not what AD's asking for. Yeah, but I think it's something that's possible. Oh sure, you know, like getting other big and break glass against in case of emergency, being able to go to two big lineups. I think you need that, that line of versatility. But yeah, I don't think it's a priority to like land a starting center, you know, start calling about deandre Ayton or something.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I think the like Dwight javale aspects of the, the championship run are pretty overstated. As you said, Justin, like that was the team what made the Lakers so good is that they had exactly the flexibility that was just laid out where they can go too big when they need to, but they don't have to. Where AD can be your default five against small teams, against teams like the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. Great example. That is AD's best use and clearly not one that he particularly enjoys playing. I think what's different about this is this is as big and vocal as I have heard him be on this issue in a long time. And in particular the combination of him doing this and LeBron basically saying anytime a microphone is put in front of his face, this is the roster we have. We have to play the way that our personnel allows. I guess we leave. You know, he's, he's saying in every way he possibly can that this team needs to make moves and they do like they desperately do. I didn't put them on the board championship pie wise because to me the kinds of moves that they can make would make them better and would get them into the mix and be able to challenge teams like Dallas and Denver and Memphis in a more significant way. I just don't see what the path is to title in terms of like, one or two moves from here. I don't quite think they can get there.

[Justin Verrier]

Let me throw this at you. If they traded for Zach Levine, they juice the offense a little bit more. They don't go the big route. Or maybe they just, like, pick up a backup center just to appease AD in the midst of this. Does that change anything for you guys?

[Rob Mahoney]

I mean, again, they're better.

[Justin Verrier]

They're better.

[Rob Mahoney]

But Zach Levine, as we, as we discussed last week, is an all star level player. Of course they would be better. He's been great.

[Big Waz]

Zach lavine is replacing Austin Reaves in this scenario.

[Rob Mahoney]

You would have to.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Big Waz]

I don't. I would upgrade them for sure.

[Rob Mahoney]

Can I ask a question about that? Is that a defensive upgrade? I'm just.

[Justin Verrier]

I'm just.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm just putting that out in the universe.

[Justin Verrier]

I'm thinking, theoretically. I just.

[Rob Mahoney]

I've not been thrilled with Austin Reeves in coverage this season. I'll say that. I think.

[Justin Verrier]

No, but let's circle back in, like a couple. Yeah, I have to think about that one for a while. What if it's Miles Turner, which I don't think will happen because the Pacers barely have a backup center at this point. I don't know how they do that, but there is like a kind of a report out there that, like, they don't want to pay him his next contract. So if they trade for Turner, that's their move. Does that change anything for you guys?

[Big Waz]

I like Miles Turner next to AD because, like, there's actually one good rim protector, roving big kind of guy in A.D. i. I mean, I think that could work because. Especially because, spacing wise, it has no effect on what AD and LeBron are trying to do on offense. I would enjoy that move, but again, you know, I've been a Miles Taylor. Taylor, excuse me, Miles Turner apologist for six years now. So.

[Rob Mahoney]

This is a pro Miles Turner podcast. The problem with all this stuff is Miles Turner and AD could absolutely play together and play well together if you go that route. The route ad wants to go, where you bring in another big LeBron James is going to guard threes. Now, that's. That's the thing that's going to happen on a regular basis.

[Justin Verrier]

Finney Smith basically has to be your starting two at that point.

[Rob Mahoney]

I. I think it's probably still Max Christie. I, I don't know. These are the problems that the Lakers roster bring about. It's just hard to move the pieces around in a way that leads to a championship product.

[Justin Verrier]

LeBron is a power force. If anything, he's a, he's a center. Like he's practically playing center with that second unit with Hachimura.

[Big Waz]

And so they have to embrace anymore.

[Justin Verrier]

Yes. So he has to be a 4 at worst. I think if we're talking about who he's guarding on the other end, because he can still use his bulk and he's still smart as all hell. Just he's not moving and he's also not like playing defense in general.

[Big Waz]

Here's the thing too, right? Like, because LeBron still kind of like looks exactly the same that he did, minus some of the hair stuff in Miami. Like a lot of people just can't get it through their heads.

[Rob Mahoney]

Sorry, I can't, I can't just gloss back. You slide that one away just like a look. Just a little, no look to the corner from Watts.

[Big Waz]

Oh, you know, just, just saying, just. We gotta be honest here. Group chat.

[Rob Mahoney]

Okay.

[Big Waz]

In 20. In the 2011 postseason, basically D. Rose's last healthy postseason, the year he won the MVP. LeBron James was guarding that guy on an island by himself in crunch time, no help. Just guarding the league mvp. Six inches shorter than him. Just guarding him, no problem. And it was like, all right, they're done, we're getting the Bulls outta here. Could you imagine LeBron trying to guard John Moran on an island in 2025?

[Rob Mahoney]

No 40 year old man should even attempt it.

[Big Waz]

Like, that's insane.

[Rob Mahoney]

I would not recommend it.

[Big Waz]

He can't, he can't guard quick people in space. That's not what he does. So this idea that he's going to be a three and guarding the world's best wing players is nuts to me.

[Justin Verrier]

Yeah, that's kind of why I didn't have them on my pie. Because I just don't see the combination that really pushes them over some of these other teams that we talked about, the Thunder in particular. But even like a Denver, a Memphis, they just seem like they're on another tier no matter what the Lakers are doing. So I don't have them in my pie pieces. One team I have that you guys don't, it seems is the other team in Los Angeles, the Los Angeles Clippers. I have them with 1% pie. So the thinnest amount of pie possible. Before we get into the decimal point pies, which I also have.

[Rob Mahoney]

Oh my God, as do I, for the record.

[Justin Verrier]

Okay, great. They have the second best defense in the NBA right now. What they have certainly works. And then Kawhi steadily. I wouldn't say he's looking great, but the numbers are pretty fantastic. Like, he's second in the NBA in point differential now, or, excuse me, plus minus now. He's played like 157 minutes. Just a small sample. But, like, it. It just seems like it's working in the way that I kind of assumed it would, where it's like they have this great context and they're just adding one of the best isolation scores in recent history, like, into the mix. And so if we're talking about, like, you could see a team getting to the finals, getting in, winning the title, like, if you squint very, very hard, they do have the right mix and they check the right boxes in order to do so. Now, James Harden, obviously a huge concern. Can Kawhi hold up for longer than 24 minutes in a game, which he doesn't play past at this point? Huge concern. I think that's worthy of 1% piece.

[Rob Mahoney]

Justin, I. Look, I'm a big enough man to apologize to you when, you know, I would say like about a month ago or so now, you described the Lakers and Clippers as being in the mix, and I gave you a little guff for it. You know what? They are in fact in the mix. To me, to the tune of 0.5% in the title race. They are in the mix. I am sorry, Justin.

[Justin Verrier]

Thank you.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think the. The potency of their defense and its staying power is pretty persuasive. Like, they have something that a team like the Lakers does not like, something to hang their hat on, a clear identity, a vision for what their team is, a clarity of purpose. But they do have all the question marks you described and more. There's also things like, you know, this is Norm Powell's first year carrying this kind of role, and you always have to be a little dubious of guys in the first year of doing something, whether it's a scale up in usage, whether it's a different position, whatever it may be, as far as making through four, three or four rounds of the playoffs. That's a really tall order for someone like Norm to do his first crack at being this kind of scorer. That's where you would hope that a healthier version of Kawhi that is slowly inching his way back over the last of the last couple months of the season would help alleviate some of that pressure in those moments. I don't think it's actually going to happen, but I think the Clippers have been good enough and steady enough that you have to put them on the board.

[Justin Verrier]

Also. Zubac has been awesome this season. Like we didn't talk about him in the all star conversation because I don't think he would, he would ever get a vote there. But like deep, deep list All Stars, he's been there. He's been a two way force at this point. He's been very good defensively. He's been a good post up big.

[Rob Mahoney]

What is a deep list all Star?

[Justin Verrier]

Just like a good player at that point. Like you're a top 75 player.

[Rob Mahoney]

I guess I was thinking this like the deep state, you know, it's just like these underground all stars working throughout the league secretly pulling the strings of the entire operation related to the deep state.

[Big Waz]

What is the, what is the, the, the. The event that would have to happen for the Clippers to win the NBA championship? Would it like, is it nuclear war with China? Like what. How the hell do the Clippers with James Harden at the helm? Although James Harden did say Luca Ball, which is essentially Harden Ball got to the finals last year and that's what he learned from watching last year's NBA playoffs. And maybe Harden Ball will be the way guys to, to this year's Western Conference championship.

[Rob Mahoney]

He's been, this year he's been quite good. I mean he's not put in position to be his most efficient self, but he carries exactly what they need him to carry, which is to give these other guys relief and do so much playmaking for that outfit.

[Justin Verrier]

Watching him manipulate space and defenders in order to set up the next guy is still incredible. He had one pass where he was like waiting for, I think Derrick Jones Jr. To get into the pocket of space that he just created. He did like almost like a snake above the head sort of pass just to him at the, like the free throw line. I'm like, he could still do that very effectively. Obviously. I wonder what happens in the playoffs in terms of defense if he isn't shooting well. They have a lot of guys. I think Derrick Jones Jr. Has been really awesome. Like we need to talk about him, maybe not on the PJ Tucker level, but that then that sort of like, like range where it's like he's not their best player, but he unlocks the best possible version of a team because he does all the dirty work for them, guarding the best player on the other end. And also like that guy still has bounce that I think they put to use in ways that like maybe even Dallas didn't.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, they. To answer your question was I think what needs to happen is Kawhi is going to have to be some version of Kawhi, not the, not the full Toronto boat. Not the version that you know, was so even so critical for the spurs during his like post championship but like MVP worthy seasons. He just needs to be really, really good at creating isolation offense and getting the Clippers out of jams. And what that gets you is 0.5 to 1% title odds. It doesn't get you a lot, but it does get you into the mix.

[Justin Verrier]

You got a sliver. I have one last sliver that I pieced out between two teams. I have the Bucks at 0.7% piece only because honestly I think it's one of the top three teams in the east. And everybody else I kind of just gave a nod to the Bucks just because like their issue in past playoffs have been Giannis isn't healthy. Like it could have been completely different scenario if Giannis has just played every single games in those series. So there's that factor and also the trade factor that you brought up, Rob. I'm a little concerned though because they're in the Bradley Beal mix. I know that Khris Middleton isn't giving them much these days but. But that only seems to compound the issue and almost like drive the final nail in the Giannis poppin where it's.

[Big Waz]

Like Bradley Beal thing is like court.

[Rob Mahoney]

They should not do that.

[Big Waz]

It's the same logic that the Suns had in bringing Bradley Peele on. It's doesn't, it doesn't make any sense at all.

[Rob Mahoney]

So wise. Do you have the, do you have the Bucks at all in your pie?

[Big Waz]

Yeah, they're part of my, my last crumbs.

[Rob Mahoney]

Okay.

[Big Waz]

My last crumbs with the Rockets, it's.

[Justin Verrier]

Really more of a morsel because you've got like 5%.

[Big Waz]

The Lakers, it's just crumbs like the Clippers, it's just outright. I just refuse to ever give the Clippers any country whatsoever. Justin said 0.7. So like basically you need a microphone. Microphone, magnifying glass to see the freaking crumb that the Clippers got. They're just not a crumb team even for me.

[Rob Mahoney]

Wow. But I'm not even like the level of crumb where you could just scoop it up with a spoon and throw it on some ice cream. They're not even at that level.

[Big Waz]

No, it's like the type of Crumb where you, you know, you kind of dust off the desk and you just dust it off. You don't even get a dust pan that, like, immediately scoop it. You can't even see. You just notice crumbs there. You just wiped off.

[Rob Mahoney]

Damn.

[Big Waz]

Yeah.

[Justin Verrier]

Crumb dust. And so I haven't at points. Go ahead.

[Rob Mahoney]

I want to say one thing about the Bucks, because to me, they are a little bit more significant for one reason and one reason only, which is I think we're finally starting to see Giannis and Dame playing well together, which.

[Big Waz]

Is a matter of tearing itself in the numbers too completely.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's just a matter of huge rotational importance for the Bucks, who did not have the means for them not to play well together. And it showed for a long time. But those guys are the level of stars where when they crack the code on something like that, I think it does tilt the title race ever so slightly. Like, those are incredibly dangerous players who have, you know what? Even though it is a wanting supporting cast at times, just enough around them to be competitive with lots of different kinds of teams, I can't help but give the Bucks some benefit of the doubt, and Giannis in particular, some benefit of the doubt. And I have met again, 5% of the title race.

[Big Waz]

Yeah, for me, for the Bucks, I think to, like, be the team that they want to be, they have to be perfect. There's just no margin for error with this group. Like, they can't miss. You can't, like, make up ground on a miss rotation. Like, you can't pass the ball a hair late to your shooters. Like, everything has to be perfect for them to be on the level of the guys at the top of the conference. Now, look, we've seen teams play perfect ball for a crazy stretch before, right? Miami Heat in recent years come to mind. Just a freaking Eastern Conference of just perfection, of timely shooting, of craziness. That's the kind of thing, to me that would have to happen to the Bucks in order for them to reach, you know, that potential. But I just do think the combination of Dame and Giannis provide for a context where that could be feasible. Not likely. Not probable, but I think it's a possibility for sure.

[Justin Verrier]

Last piece of crumb dust. I guess at this point, I have the Rockets 0.25 pie, and that's really only a nod to what they've done in the regular season. There's no chance in hell that this team wins the NBA Finals. They're one of my favorite teams to watch. Honestly, in recent years, what I Love doing now is talking to actual people within the NBA and asking them about Amend Thompson and they turn into kids again.

[Big Waz]

It's.

[Justin Verrier]

You get like a boy. Howdy. Like, oh, that guy, like he. Have you seen him? Like assistant coaches. Everyone loves that dude. They have been awesome. I just, I just don't know where the offense is going to come from in the playoff series. A lot of it is still like Jalen Green having a breakthrough game. Like they look like a completely different team but like, you know, the Sengun, the Fredman Leeds, it's just like I don't see them. If anything, I think they're a susceptible first round out. I assume they will probably get to the second round, but that's probably where it ends.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I think the case for the Rockets is how many teams in the NBA, even among the cream of the crop, this playoff level competition, how many teams are as purely physical as Houston is and what can that do to opponents? How can it take them out of the rhythm? How can it get into their heads? We've seen even teams as good as the Thunder, if you're able to be big and physical with them, you can kind of shake them out of what they do a little bit. That to me is the Rockets case. Not that they have an overwhelming offense because they don't. I just frankly don't think their half court is good enough yet and they're sophisticated enough yet and that their creators are at the level yet where they're going to go on a championship run. But I think they deserve a little more than. Did you say 0.25%, Justin? Yeah, I think the defense is too good and ultimately they are another like dig points out of the trash kind of team that is going to be more difficult in the playoffs but is not nothing. They are going to turn people over in transition. They are going to create second chances. Like they're still going to do that if at a slightly lesser scale. And to me that gets you 3% of the pie.

[Justin Verrier]

Okay. Is that your last piece?

[Rob Mahoney]

I have one more and I'm frankly embarrassed by it.

[Justin Verrier]

It's the Suns, isn't it?

[Rob Mahoney]

It's the Suns. 0.5% for the Phoenix Suns based solely on the possibility that they could trade for Jimmy Butler. That is literally the only reason they deserve any percentage at all.

[Justin Verrier]

I'm kind of talking myself into the Suns being pretty feisty with Jimmy. Like it fits in a way that like at first I kind of scoffed at. The only problem is like this playoff run will be it like next season. Could be even more disastrous because then you have to fill in all the spots that you trade players with.

[Big Waz]

So, yeah, I like what Jimmy would bring. Not just from, you know, he'll be a guy that ensures that they get paint touches, like paint shots up all playoffs long. Which, you know, much as I love Devin Booker, that's not what he does on a regular basis. Not this year anyway. And KD just ain't been that in wild. Like he just doesn't. He doesn't turn the corner on guys anymore. Like he creates space for his lethal mid range and that's what he does. And you kind of live and die by that. But Jimmy, he's still somebody who's going to get into the teeth of the defense and that's just an element they don't possess right now. So I think that would be cool and I just think as a, as an attitude addition, yes, I think would be very, very welcome to this group of guys.

[Rob Mahoney]

So far, Nick Richards sue has been just what the doctor ordered for them. Giving them like actual presence on the glass, actual backline def. And so if he continues to do that and they bring in Jimmy Butler, basically, they would have to be a completely different team than the team that they have been. But Jimmy Butler is a transformative player and the level of star that frankly could get you a whopping 0.5% of the title pie. The counterpoint, they're currently half a game out of 10th place. Have a game up on 10th place, and they have one of the toughest remaining schedules. So if they're going to do something, they might actually have to do it sooner than later.

[Justin Verrier]

Also, they almost lost the game to the Wizards because they were fucking around trying to get Nick Richards his 2020 game. They almost literally slipped on the banana peel. Can't even take the easy ones. The easy ones are hard for them.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Justin Verrier]

All right. Those are the pies. We'll be back Thursday when we'll probably have to talk about the trade deadline because that's fast approaching here. So thank you to Isaiah Blakely. Thank you to Ben Cruz. Talk to you next time.