Playoff Verrierables: East and West Previews, the Looming Offseason, and More | Group Chat

Summary

The Ringer NBA Show

Episode: Playoff Verrierables: East and West Previews, the Looming Offseason, and More | Group Chat
Release Date: April 17, 2025
Hosts: Justin Varior, Rob Mahoney, Wosny Lambre (Woz)

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Introduction

In this high-energy episode of The Ringer NBA Show, hosts Justin Varior, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre dive deep into the ongoing 2025 NBA postseason. The discussion centers around playoff previews for both the Eastern and Western Conferences, the implications for the upcoming offseason, and various playoff variables that could shape the outcomes of the series.

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Playoff West Preview

Oklahoma City Thunder: The Dark Horse? The panel members unanimously agree that the Oklahoma City Thunder (Thunder) have positioned themselves as a formidable contender in the Western Conference. With an impressive 68-win season and one of the highest net ratings in the league, the Thunder are viewed by Rob Mahoney as "this sleeping giant... not just 68 wins, something that's been done a handful of times, most of which those teams went on to be champions" ([26:35]).

Key Strengths:

• Defensive Prowess: The Thunder boast a "ridiculous defense with an incredible amount of flexibility" ([26:53]).
• Star Power: Featuring a "dominant superstar who no one has been able to stop all season long," the team has the potential to carry them through tough playoff matchups ([26:53]).
• Depth and Flexibility: Their ability to modulate minutes and adjust rotations gives them a strategic edge in series that require adaptation ([30:03]).

Potential Challenges:

• Matchups Against the Lakers and Clippers: The Thunder may face significant challenges against powerhouse teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors. Woz highlights the Lakers as "the most direct challenge" due to their ability to manipulate Thunder's bigs and leverage multiple ball handlers ([39:02]).

Series Predictions:

• Thunder vs. Lakers: Both hosts anticipate a tough series, with Justin leaning towards the Thunder advancing but acknowledging the Lakers' formidable lineup ([82:32]).
• Thunder vs. Rockets: The Warriors are favored to win in six games, with the Rockets facing an uphill battle against the experienced Golden State team ([83:56]).

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Playoff East Preview

Chicago Bulls: In Need of Defensive Reinforcements The Chicago Bulls are under scrutiny for their defensive shortcomings, particularly in handling rising stars like Josh Giddie. Justin Varior expressed concern, stating, "how about we get a credible defense to go around this budding superstar in our league" ([17:13]).

Key Teams and Matchups:

• Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Celtics: The hosts project a likely series between the Cavs and Celtics, analyzing the Cavs' performance and questioning whether they peaked early or settled into a less competitive form ([44:53]).
• New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons: Emphasis is placed on the Knicks' offensive capabilities and their ability to disrupt the Pistons' strategies. Woz predicts a six-game series victory for the Knicks, highlighting their strong offensive rankings ([75:18]).

Player Highlights:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo: Justin and Rob discuss Giannis's impact on the Bucks and the looming offseason implications related to his future with the team. Woz underscores Giannis's individual drive and its influence on the Bucks' strategies ([52:16]).
• Josh Giddie: The Bulls' ability to contain Giddie with a stronger defensive lineup is crucial. Rob Mahoney criticizes the Bulls for lacking depth and flexibility, making it difficult to challenge top-tier teams ([17:23]).

Series Predictions:

• Cavaliers vs. Celtics: Both hosts back the Cavs, predicting a series in favor of Cleveland barring any dramatic shifts ([73:20]).
• Knicks vs. Pistons: Predictions lean towards a six-game sweep for the Knicks, emphasizing their offensive strengths and Pistons' defensive limitations ([75:18]).

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Key Player Analyses

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Giannis remains a central figure in discussions about the Bucks' future. Justin raises concerns about Giannis's potential trade rumors and how it could reshape the team's dynamics. Woz points out Giannis's individualistic nature and his focus on personal achievements, which could influence team strategies if off-market moves are considered ([52:03], [54:36]).

Luka Doncic: Luka's health is a critical factor for the Mavericks' playoff success. Discussions revolve around his ability to perform without significant injuries and how his presence can tilt series outcomes in Dallas's favor. Justin notes, "The margin for error for this team as opposed to even a team like the Clippers is so narrow" ([15:34]).

Nico Harrison: Harrison's controversial presence in the Mavericks' playoff outlook is dissected, with Rob critical of his handling by the team management. The hosts express concern over Harrison's influence and behavior, forecasting potential negative impacts on the Mavericks' playoff run ([10:32], [11:17]).

Tyler Herro and Anthony Davis: Herro's performance is highlighted as a potential game-changer for the Heat, while Davis's versatility and playmaking abilities continue to make him a focal point for the Lakers' strategies ([19:48], [14:52]).

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Playoff Variables and Predictions

Historical Precedents: The hosts examine historical data to project the Thunder as potential champions, citing their dominant regular season performance. Rob Mahoney reflects on past teams with similar statistics that ultimately won championships, bolstering Thunder’s championship prospects ([26:53]).

X-Factors and Chessboard Queens: The discussion includes identifying unexpected players who could tilt playoff series. Justin and Rob mention players like Austin Reeves and Julius Randall as potential X-factors capable of making significant impacts in crucial moments ([66:09], [66:23]).

Series-by-Series Predictions:

• Eastern Conference:

  • Cavs vs. Celtics: Cavaliers
  • Knicks vs. Pistons: Knicks in six
  • Pacers vs. Bucks: Pacers in five

• Western Conference:

  • Thunder vs. Lakers: Thunder advancing
  • Warriors vs. Rockets: Warriors in six
  • Nuggets vs. Clippers: Clippers in six

Notable Quote:

• "Every indicator says that they are this sleeping giant... I expect them to be a champion." — Rob Mahoney on the Thunder ([26:53])

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Looming Offseason Discussions

Team Building and Roster Moves: The panel debates the Bucks' offseason strategies, particularly focusing on Giannis’s potential trade and the necessity for the team to acquire defensive reinforcements. Justin criticizes the Bucks for their inadequate depth and the inability to efficiently support Giannis and Damian Lillard post-trade ([60:22], [61:05]).

Trade Scenarios: Discussions include hypothetical trades, such as trading Damian Lillard for Jamal Murray, and the implications of such moves on team dynamics and future competitiveness. The hosts express skepticism about the Bucks' ability to strengthen their roster effectively through trades ([61:05], [63:05]).

Future Projections: Rob and Woz explore potential changes within teams like the Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets, contemplating the sustainability of their current structures and the likelihood of significant roster overhauls ([63:05], [64:21]).

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with the hosts emphasizing the unpredictable nature of the playoffs while expressing excitement for the upcoming matchups. They outline their schedule adjustments for the playoff coverage and invite listeners to stay tuned for in-depth analyses of first-round actions.

Final Thoughts: Justin Varior remarks, "This is a great field... we're trying to figure out what's going on in the middle," highlighting the competitive landscape of the postseason ([97:27]).

Notable Quote:

• "The Thunder have too many options." — Justin Varior on the Western Conference champion prospects ([30:03])

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

1. On Thunder’s Championship Potential:

   • Rob Mahoney ([26:35]): “This is the era that they have put themselves in. And not just that, but a ridiculous defense with an incredible amount of flexibility, a dominant superstar who no one has been able to stop all season long.”

2. On Play-In Format Critique:

   • Justin Varior ([04:04]): “And you could even argue what's the harm of having a second night of play-in games. It's just abundance in. The NBA clearly is trying to sell volume to its advertisers... but there are diminishing returns to this.”

3. On Giannis’s Influence:

   • Woz ([54:36]): “Giannis loves his numbers. He loved tracking his little triple doubles. He loved it when he was getting all eyes on me for the MVP.”

4. On Key Playoff Matchups:

   • Rob Mahoney ([30:03]): “Show me the team that can stop Shay and that's when I'll start to think, oh, maybe this is more of a regular season team than a playoff team.”

5. On Celtics' Championship Defense:

   • Rob Mahoney ([73:26]): “Their combined ability to respond not just to adversity, but to tactical distinctions in a series and the evolution of how these matchups evolve over time, the balance in their skill sets, all of that is so tough to overcome.”

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the podcast's extensive discussion on the NBA playoffs, providing insights into team strategies, player performances, and future team-building considerations. The inclusion of notable quotes with timestamps offers listeners a glimpse into the hosts' critical analyses and perspectives.

Transcript

[Justin Varior]

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[Rob Mahoney]

Can we be like Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell instead? Is that. Is that on the table? Better? I'll take certainly tonight I'll take it.

[Woz]

All four of those guys have hair that I would kill to have you.

[Rob Mahoney]

With the Josh Giddy locks would really be something. I got to say.

[Woz]

Pretty sweet.

[Justin Varior]

Playoff. Wiggins is back. Playoff ad sort of back. Or at least back enough to beat a sad sack Kings team. We're going to talk about both playing games. After we do that, you will hear what we recorded earlier today which is a big old playoff preview. Over an hour worth of content. We did the playoff variables. You're goddamn right we did.

[Rob Mahoney]

Of course.

[Justin Varior]

So stay tuned for that. Or I'm sure they'll put the time codes in the podcast so you can jump ahead. But we reconvened at night on Wednesday to talk about some play in action. Unfortunately was not the best night of play in action. I'm starting to wonder like every year now it seems like the second round of the play in action, the 910 matchups a little lackluster.

[Woz]

You mean you weren't wowed by four teams who won in the 30s this regular season? You were your NBA sort of funny bone. Didn't get tingled with that. No. Like, I think it's what we expected. Right. Um, these are the. Literally the last four teams in the play in. For various reasons, I think the Kings, Excuse me, not the Kings, the Mavs are probably the most legitimate of this team. I. Of these teams, I'd say they have the most talent. Like what they do on defense seems the most sustainable. Right. Um, but still no Kyrie Irving. Hardly any real backcourt juice. Take a drink at home, those of you listening. And so I'm not surprised, man, with the weak guard play. But Sacramento, I don't know, I thought they would give a. Give a bigger fight than this. And it was over pretty quick. They were getting smoked by 24 by halftime.

[Rob Mahoney]

Neither of these games was particularly interesting for that reason. Neither of them were very close. And frankly, I will say, if you're the Bulls, if you give up 71 points to this Heat team and a half, you just need to go to your room and think about what you've done. Like. Like, why are we here if this is the level of participation that's going to be involved? And so, yeah, the two teams that won, unsurprisingly, are the more polished teams are the more the teams that approach this with an actual playoff level focus and energy for one. Which goes a long way when you're playing against Sacramento and Chicago.

[Justin Varior]

Yeah, it's just such a comedown coming off of Golden State versus Memphis. That had the juice drink at home yet again of like a.

[Woz]

Like actual playoff game. Playoff game. Yeah.

[Justin Varior]

And so I like that. I do like that the NBA is trying to work in a do or die situation into NBA basketball because we've just wanted this for a while. It's all series, just having a little bit of spice thrown in there. Not a bad thing. And you could even argue what's the harm of having a second night of play in games. Like, it's just abundance in. The NBA clearly is trying to sell volume to its advertisers, to streamers like Amazon and whatnot, as opposed to the NFL that's just trying to be targeted about having great games. But there are diminishing returns to this. Have we talked about all season of. Of maybe like doing a little bit too much that you kind of get people to tune out. And a night like this, I'm like, kind of symbolizes all of that. It's just like if I wouldn't, I don't think we would have watched this or we would have caught up to it. Later if we weren't obligated to do so. And that's a bad sign.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think there's the trade offs of that do make it worth it though, right? Like having the, having the play in to begin with is what made that Clippers warriors game as good as it. And overall even the ability to like dodge Oklahoma City's matchup that made the 78 matchup all the more important. And so you still do get areas in which this is really going to pop and there's going to be inevitably matchups, most of which historically involve some combination of the Bulls, the Hawks, the Heat, they're just at a revolving door with this stuff. But it's not a coincidence that the good game was the one featuring 248 win teams. The Grizzlies and the warriors are good, credible NBA enterprises. And I'll say this about the Mavericks who have had every reason, built an excuse and otherwise to fold on this season and just have not done it. They have played hard, they played good committed basketball. They've been like undermanned and really haven't had a great shot in some of these games down the stretch of the regular season. But they've shown up and played. And so this is what that gets you is it makes you look a cut above teams that just aren't really built to compete at this sort of level.

[Woz]

And I think the breadth of the regular season is, you know, the level of it is brought up is raised by having teams compete one to stay out of the playing mix, which obviously that Golden State and Clippers game where it's just like look man, we don't want to have to be playing for our playoff lives in the play in that matters. And you know, I think about a year like this one where Memphis as the AC was seven games better than Sacramento. So they basically would have eight games would have been playing to be like, all right, maybe I don't want to be the eighth seed or I'm cool with being the seventh, but the teams above them would have been taking games off left and right. Under the current paradigm, everybody had had skin in the game and so everybody played really hard. And I think especially the, the nines and tens of both east and Western conferences, those would have been four more teams thrown into what is already a disgusting NBA mix during the months of March, late February. Really March wouldn't have gotten the Bulls.

[Justin Varior]

Run is what you're saying.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think we might all be better off. Yeah.

[Justin Varior]

Well here, here's what, here would be the counter. I do think most of the teams in the east play in were probably in the thick of that whether they wanted to or not. I don't think they were actively put on the gas pedal. I think that's just a product of teams. If you're going to put the ball out there, guys are going to play for contracts, for personal pride, all that other stuff. And so I do think yes, tanking would be slightly worse. I'm not necessarily sure it wasn't any worse with some of those teams. I also think there is the whole Grizzlies problem where they did win eight more games than the Kings, nine more than the Mavs. Is it really like doing them justice to put them in a do or die situation? Especially when like one injury to Morant we'll see on Friday against the Mavs, like could they go home despite having a very good regular season?

[Rob Mahoney]

I think they could. I don't want to, I don't want to overrate how good this Dallas team is in its current form.

[Woz]

But they can win though, Rob.

[Rob Mahoney]

They can win and the Grizzlies have some fluky games, especially when teams really put up a fight. Like sometimes the Grizzlies just can't get their shit together. That is an empirical thing. That is true about their season.

[Woz]

True for three years.

[Rob Mahoney]

It has been true for quite some time. The Mavs though are starting Najee Marshall at point guard. They're basically not playing Spencer D. At all, which I kind of support, to be honest with you. They have such a funky lineup and orientation and spacing overall that I it's good enough to beat the Kings, clearly it's good enough to beat these like mid range Mavens and to bully, you know, Demona Sabonis a little bit inside and kind of counteract what he's bringing to the table.

[Woz]

But DeMar DeRozan, mid range mavens, the, the disgust that, that rolled off of your tongue, the alliteration like wow.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well you should know alliteration is the highest form of flattery for us [e-mail] was like I just think this Kings team is fundamentally flawed, like fundamentally compromised. And so the Mavs running over them is not to me representative of the fact that they necessarily will beat the Grizzlies, although they certainly could.

[Justin Varior]

I guess that's the big question here is do you guys like having more games? Just as a fan, someone we're not actually gaining anything financially or, or from this. Do you like more games or would you rather it just one game? You get the best of what's possible. Maybe like a 7, 8 matchup. Like, the first year we did the play in was in the bubble. I think they had a situation where one team had to win two games versus the team that had the better record, only had to win one. The Blazers ultimately won that game, and they went ahead like, what if it was that format versus what we have now? Do you like that any better?

[Woz]

I think if there was a way to give me. Give me Friday and yesterday, none of today.

[Justin Varior]

You want the two buns. You don't want the sandwich. Yeah, I get it. I don't know what the right answer is. I think I'm just trying to talk it out.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's one of those things where year to year, it's going to be different. There's going to be some years where there's a really good team in, like, the nine spot. Right. And it's just going to kind of make sense, and it'll lead to a pretty competitive field, and there's going to be years like this, and that's ultimately, I think. Okay.

[Justin Varior]

Okay. Well, let's talk about some of these games quickly then. So the Mavs beat the Kings. I assume everything now. Rob is okay in Dallas. Nico Harrison.

[Rob Mahoney]

They fixed it. Yeah.

[Justin Varior]

Off the. Off the hook. Everything's great.

[Rob Mahoney]

Can you even imagine the quotes that are going to come out if the Mavs make the playoffs?

[Justin Varior]

Like, I good or bad? Like, what do fans want right now?

[Rob Mahoney]

I honestly don't know what Mavs fans want. I don't know that they know what they want.

[Woz]

I want them to make the playoffs because it's going to be funny.

[Rob Mahoney]

Um, it would be very funny.

[Justin Varior]

And.

[Woz]

And we know Nico Harrison will find a way to poke his chest out about it. But what I noticed first and foremost about the game today is that Nico Harris sat in a seat on the road.

[Rob Mahoney]

Certainly did not. Not in the tunnel.

[Woz]

You're saying he wasn't standing in the tunnel surrounded by security?

[Rob Mahoney]

Interesting.

[Woz]

On the road, he's actually able to sit down and take in a basketball game. It's freaking crazy, the level of vitriol for this guy right now.

[Justin Varior]

Listen, I feel for Mavs fans. They have probably invested so much time, so much emotional bandwidth, so much money in this team to have it ripped away from you. I get it. You guys should express all of your concerns and your vitriol. Anything you want to do, it's totally warranted. I'm not trying to take that away from you. I'm getting a little worried about Nico Harrison. Like, it's like getting a little troubling out there. I feel, I'm starting to feel bad for him even though he did this to himself.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, I mean you just gotta, if you're gonna message, you gotta message better. And there, there was a report from Sean's tonight that apparently the kind of on the record, but at first you weren't allowed to record it, but then they caved and you are allowed to record it. Closed door, invite only roundtable press conference that Nico Harrison and Rick Welts held was actually the behest apparently of Patrick Dumont. That was not a Nico Harrison idea. This was, you need to go sit in front of these people and try to control the message. And I'm going to tell you he did not do it very effectively. Would the message change though if the Mavs do make the playoffs? Right. I think clearly you are starting to see some of what Nico Harrison is proposing as a real thing. He, he has said like, oh, there were two quarters of evidence that we were a really high level team.

[Woz]

Two and a half quarters.

[Rob Mahoney]

Two and a half quarters before everything that shit. Look, honestly it was a great half. I'm not trying to take it away from anybody. Them making the playoffs will be a real thing. And I think what's so what sucks about this Mavs team is they are in their way fun. Like this is a fun team to watch. Even in their weird form.

[Woz]

Like Anthony Davis is a fun player to watch always.

[Rob Mahoney]

Daniel Gafford, always fun to watch.

[Woz]

So physical man.

[Rob Mahoney]

I love the Dante Exum experience. We had a great, a really good Klay Thompson game today and a really good PJ Washington game at the same time. That's always a good bellwether for the Mavs.

[Justin Varior]

But Clay like marooned on this team that he thought was going to be his answer to like get back at the Warriors. Is this honestly lowkey?

[Woz]

The saddest part, so crazy.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's tough.

[Justin Varior]

So him having this big game, like I love that. That was great.

[Woz]

Yeah.

[Rob Mahoney]

And he's maybe the player most of all in this team who is reliant on, if not Luca, level playmaking. At least Kyrie Irving level playmaking. And so he's finding other ways to engage as a cutter to create his shots. Like I thought this was a really good play game.

[Woz]

He turned down more money with the Lakers because he was like, look, it's a little, it's pretty dysfunctional in la. That was one of the reasoning. And his dad was obviously a Laker guy. Hard selling him on the Lakers. Like look, it's kind of dysfunctional over there. Plus the Mavs went to the Finals last year. Like they're adding me to a Finals team. Plus more pieces. Like we've got this young superstar and Luka Doncic who's got a proven playoff tracker.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, let's be real, even if he had done that, he just would have gotten traded to the Mavericks in the Luca deal anyway. Like, it was always going to end this way for Clay one way or the other.

[Justin Varior]

Probably true. I do like the Brandon Williams little pop here toward the end. Anytime a guy is like a journeyman, been on four different teams, all of a sudden catches some win, like break stride, whatever euphemism you want to throw out there, like, that's a good story. That's a nice little story that no one's going to care about. But I appreciate what he's doing.

[Rob Mahoney]

I just think they have a lot of guys who are charismatic basketball players who are a little miscast in the roles that they're asked of, what they're asked to do now. But even getting to see Anthony Davis try new stuff and experiment a little bit and run some inverted pick and roll, like, that's fun basketball stuff.

[Woz]

Again, it bears mentioning to say they had a sick team. They did and they broke it up. And another thing, just one last thing. A healthy Kyrie Irvin. This is not a championship team.

[Rob Mahoney]

It'd be a good one, though.

[Justin Varior]

It would have been solid. I still could see him that. And I also think, like, you need a power forward on the open market next off season. You're calling the Mavs because they have 20 of them, let me tell you.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yes, well, one of them is Anthony Davis, apparently. You know, like that's, that's just how they want to live.

[Justin Varior]

That's the worst part of it. Oh, God. I keep finding nine different worst parts. As we're going through this conversation. Why don't we flip maybe to the future here? Do you think that these guys have a shot against Memphis? We don't, as we're recording this Wednesday night. Really know what the health status of John Morant is. I assume he's going to probably give it a go just because he is kind of a baller and, you know, he plays through a lot of different things. Let's assume that he might be diminished for this conversation. Do you think, like, the Mavs can pull this off?

[Rob Mahoney]

What?

[Justin Varior]

Do you think Rob could?

[Rob Mahoney]

Yes. Will, probably not. I just don't see a. Like, it was a 44 point second quarter for them in this game against the Kings Sacramento just had no point of attack defense whatsoever against a team that really can't handle the ball. And so even a Memphis team without Jalen Wells, even a Memphis team that we'll see what condition John Morant is in. They have guys and they have a functional defense and they know how to rotate. Like, I think they're just a little bit more tied together than what Sacramento team is right now. They got Zach Edy, they got one of the best defensive players in the league in Jaren Jackson Jr. They got Scottie Pippen Jr. Who's just coming off of, I thought, a pretty solid performance against Golden State with a pretty tall order chasing Steph around. Like, they've got a lot of guys who are going to engage defensively in a, in a very different way from what you saw from the Kings.

[Woz]

Here's what I'll say. The other night, I watched Golden State State play the spurs in a game they absolutely had to have played reasonably hard and lost. Yeah, the spurs, okay. Um, granted it was a buzzer beater, Harry Barnes, all kinds of things had to happen. But, like, they lost to the spurs in a game they absolutely needed. Um, I think this Mavs team is better than the Spurs. The, the, the freaking warriors just barely beat Memphis, and Memphis's best player is hobbled at the moment. So, like, you know, it's not out of the question that they could lose this game on Friday. There's some actual, like, doubt as to what the outcome would be.

[Justin Varior]

All right, flipping to the east now. I think I speak for all of us on this show when I say, can we get Josh Giddey some help? God damn. Like, how about we get a credible defense to go around this budding superstar in our league?

[Rob Mahoney]

You have never once spoken for us, and you certainly won't be doing it now. Justin, what do you have to say for yourself as. As Josh Giddey believer. As Chicago Bulls believer.

[Woz]

Josh Giddey apologist.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I definitely apologist.

[Justin Varior]

I don't think this was the best Bulls performance of the season, let alone the second half. I don't think that Giddy is the, like, one of the first 10 problems of this game. I thought he was, like, pretty mediocre in certain aspects. Like, you just couldn't get a floater going. The defense is always kind of shaky with him. That's not really his role. He just has to be big, and you just have to put him on someone in order to cover him. It would be nice if he dribbled a little, little tighter as a Point guard, that's. That'd be great. But like, I don't think he was the problem. I do think long term, if we're looking at the Bulls, like, I think Giddy White is a lot of juice for your offense. Bazellas a nice prospect that I think very highly of. You just need to round it out with some defense. Vouch at this stage of his career. I get what you're doing with the five out. You needed somebody on the backline. You need an Alex Sar type who could play in space but also protect the rim. You need to figure out the four or five spots because you need someone to cover for these guys.

[Rob Mahoney]

But they would never go for an Alex Sar type because he's too young. And this is a team that's ready to run now and ready to compete. Chicago Bull style. Playing in the playing tournament every single year.

[Justin Varior]

They'll never have the high picks. Unfortunately, to draft a Alex, that's the problem.

[Woz]

Unbelievable.

[Rob Mahoney]

They could if they wanted to. They could. They could if they wanted to. I. I just think it's kind of sobering when the Bulls are a team that in their own way are trying to compete for something. I'm not saying they're a championship contender, but this is a team that even after the Zach Levine trade was trying to win games. You get into a must win game and you run into Andrew Wiggins and realize that he is a different class of competitor than anyone on your roster. That feels like a pretty big problem.

[Justin Varior]

Hey, everyone wanted to talk about playoffs.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think I killed was.

[Woz]

A different level of competitor.

[Rob Mahoney]

Is that not what we just watched?

[Justin Varior]

Playoff Wiggins. Everyone talking about playoff. Jimmy, what about playoff Wiggins?

[Woz]

Oh, my God. Tyler Hero started 8 for 8 in this game. Yep, that was 8 for 8.

[Rob Mahoney]

This wasn't all layoffs, anything he wanted.

[Woz]

Just basically practice shots against these dudes.

[Justin Varior]

Let me ask you, this was. And we can go out on this. Maybe. Would you rather be the Bulls going forward or Zach Levine's new team, the Sacramento Kings? Who has it worse?

[Woz]

I think the Bulls, I think, have a little bit more clarity to their team. Cause the people they're counting on are younger than DeRozan and Lavine and even Sabonis. Right. Um, so there's a little bit more clarity in terms of like, yo, this is a youth movement now and that's what we're going to pursue. Whereas Sacramento, like, they're going to go into next off season, like, we need to build on top of this. And it's like you're paying Sabonus 50 million bucks.

[Justin Varior]

Like, he might not want to be there.

[Woz]

Might not want to be there. I mean, look, this isn't quite Iman Shumpert demanding a trade from the Cavs at the end there, where I invented the Iman Shumparoo. You can't demand a trade unless there's demand out there for you. So, like, that's the rule.

[Justin Varior]

Like, we gotta use that.

[Woz]

Like, Savonas, you could demand a trade, but, like, you're not in demand.

[Rob Mahoney]

Not so. But he's also not a mod Shepard.

[Justin Varior]

There's.

[Rob Mahoney]

There's no.

[Woz]

No, no, no. He's not a mod shepherd levels of.

[Rob Mahoney]

Difference to what we're talking about here.

[Woz]

Mahmud Shepard was kind of delude. No, he was very delusional for that demand. But, like, what do they really do if they're not willing to move on from the vets?

[Rob Mahoney]

I think if they were willing to take an actual moment of honest introspection and look in the mirror and say, where are we? And how far do we need to go to actually contend? If they did that, the Sacramento Kings, they would tear it all down. But they're not going to do that. They're going to tinker around the edges. If a player wants out, they're going to trade that player, and they're going to try to bring in somebody a la Zach Levine for Dear and Fox, who's going to contribute to the team now, and they're going to keep these wheels spinning as long as they can possibly spin. Not a very good way to run a team, but I think it's what they're going to do.

[Justin Varior]

I, for one, cannot wait to see what Vladi does with this roster. So we'll see. All right, stay tuned. After this short break, you will hear an hour plus of playoff nonsense. So. So strap in there. But thank you to Isaiah Blakely. We'll talk to you next time. This episode is brought to you by. Buzzballs. Biggies ready to go. Cocktails that bring the party wherever you are. All their flavors are tasty, but you have to check out the big blue ball berry cherry limeade. Yeah, you heard that right. Big blue balls, big flavor, big fun. Big balls just dropped this season. Grab a pair with Buzzballs. Please drink responsibly. Available in spirit wine and Malt ABV 15% Buzzballs LLC. All right, we're back broadcasting from the past, a much simpler time. Before Nico Harrison has done anything in this day that has drawn the ire of Mavericks fans. Feel like every time I look up, he's doing Something. He breathes their clean air and everyone is following on him.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, I think some of the pile on is deserved. It's a new day. It's a brand new opportunity to embarrass yourself and your franchise. So you got. You got to seize it.

[Justin Varior]

That guy. I've never seen a bigger sports pariah in my lifetime. It's so bad right now. But we'll have more of that. Obviously, at the top of the show, we're going big picture for this segment. We're talking about the playoffs in totality. Those start this weekend. And we are bringing you yet again the playoff variables, everyone's favorite segment, especially Rob, who still doesn't understand how it's spelled or pronounced.

[Rob Mahoney]

I will say your spelling in your messages about this one to me were a completely new variation on variable spelling.

[Woz]

Can I tell you how I spelt it, please? Varier. Yeah, the varier B, L, E, S.

[Rob Mahoney]

See, that would make sense, but that's not what we're doing.

[Justin Varior]

Oh. So no.

[Rob Mahoney]

A. I feel like if you're gonna do A, it needs to be variables. V, E, R, R, I, A or variables, but not variables.

[Justin Varior]

Variables.

[Rob Mahoney]

That doesn't make sense.

[Woz]

That's what various. The variables.

[Justin Varior]

Hmm. You bring up some good points that I hadn't considered. This was just stream of consciousness how I wrote it down, which actually I think is different than how I wrote it down the first time we did this. And then we had this discussion and I changed it to this, but apparently I went to a different extreme.

[Rob Mahoney]

I like that it has a life of its own that organically, over time, takes new spelling, new pronunciation, new bits. We're trying to evolve here.

[Justin Varior]

We're all evolving, and so is the variables. And for that reason, we bring to you our new hit jam in order to kick things off. And so, Isaiah, can you hit us with the song for the 2025 playoff variable?

[Rob Mahoney]

I feel like you're about to freestyle for Sway.

[Justin Varior]

What's going on?

[Woz]

So we went D4L 2006, 2007 era snap music for this one.

[Rob Mahoney]

Apparently leaned around with it type of.

[Justin Varior]

Beat a little bit. Yeah, I think I was googling trap beats, like three trap beats for a while, but I don't think this is what that came out as. It's just a banger.

[Woz]

It's a snap beat. It's a snap beat. But, you know, brings me back to early days of college into high school, back when I was in my prime.

[Justin Varior]

Okay, well, I feel like it's at.

[Rob Mahoney]

Least once I think you're in Your prime right now. Don't sell yourself short.

[Woz]

Well, physically, I was in my prime.

[Rob Mahoney]

But mentally, spiritually, emotionally, you've never been better.

[Woz]

Yeah, I've never been better.

[Justin Varior]

Isaiah chimes in and says the video said da baby beat. So it's a ripoff of da baby.

[Woz]

I can see dababy rhyming on that for sure.

[Justin Varior]

Rob, are you da baby guy?

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm not, no. Can't say. That's in my zone.

[Justin Varior]

All right, so we have five questions here or five topics here, because variables are topics, obviously, but they do have an adjoining question. So it's a little bit of both. First and foremost, historical precedent. We're talking about the west here, and we're obviously talking about the Oklahoma City Thunder. We've talked about them throughout the season and of late, we've marked some of the things that they accomplished this year. 68 wins. One of a few teams who have done that. Best point to one of the best net ratings. I think second best in the league. And so my question, Rob, is, is this the inevitable champion hiding in plain sight? To a certain degree. Because I feel like other than some of these other teams that they are comparable of in history, probably not getting some of the love postseason projection wise that they deserve, or is there another team going to supplant them in the West? And if so, who?

[Rob Mahoney]

Inevitable feels strong forecasting wise. But every indicator says that they are this sleeping giant, as you said, not just 68 wins, something that's been done a handful of times, most of which those teams went on to be champions. You mentioned the biggest point differential in history. All of the next five teams won the title.

[Woz]

Right.

[Rob Mahoney]

Like this is the era that they have put themselves in. And not just that, but a ridiculous defense with an incredible amount of flexibility, a dominant superstar who no one has been able to stop all season long. I just don't know what the answers are for the Thunder. And it's okay to look at that team and say, okay, they are young, they haven't proven it yet in a round over round over round kind of way. And we all want to see that. But for my money, they look like a champion. They profile as a champion. I expect them to be a champion. Is that inevitable? No, because they've got to do it and they have to prove it. And so I understand some of the skepticism. It's just, how can you not be at least kind of bullish on what they could accomplish?

[Woz]

Yeah, I mean, if anybody says the Thunder are the favorite to win the west or even the title I don't think that makes you a crazy person. I just think the way that we look at these historical indicators has to have some level of adjustment just because of how the modern NBA and the freaking wrestling, the superstars and guys staying out and teams just being straight up better. I think there's two ways to look at it. That the Thunder were able to achieve this level of dominance in a league that feels like it has more parity than it ever has speaks to something. But at the same time it like take for instance the Golden State and Houston series. They're going to play on Sunday, then Wednesday, then Saturday, Saturday. Like there's no regular season comp for that where you play one team three times in a row and they have that much rest and preparation in between. Yeah, I just think that blows up the entire notion that they're just going to come in and steamroll everybody, you know, based on their point differential. Right. And so I think their resume clearly states that they're a chance. I don't even think they're a sleeping giant. Like everybody should look at them as the favorite.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, they're a giant that just won 68 games.

[Woz]

So they're awake. These, these guys are the real deal. Um, I just, you know, I just don't think that it's as overwhelming as the resume would historically suggest that it is.

[Justin Varior]

Here's the case against. Because I do would pick the Thunder in the west and probably I'm going to pick them overall in the finals, I think the case against them would be have they solved the regular season? Have they just gotten to the point where they have the right mix of top end talent plus the depth in order to trudge through an entire 82 game season in a way that few teams are capable of doing. Even the Cleveland Cavaliers had to build depth this season in order to get to around 60 this year. The fact that the Thunder didn't have chat for half a season didn't matter. The fact that Hartenstein didn't play for the start of the season didn't matter. JDub's playing center. They lose like an A.J. mitchell here and there. They just shrug it off and they keep going. Is this going to maybe zero down on their biggest in air quotes issues? The fact that they just don't have as much juice surrounding Shay, for instance, in a short series, that would be the case against. I still think that they have enough solutions to solve against that. But probably more susceptible than another team of this ilk in years past.

[Rob Mahoney]

I don't know about more susceptible. Just because I would say their top eight is still rock solid. It's not that they're getting some undue advantage from their ninth and 10th and 11th guys, even though those are really good players. If anything, they have the flexibility to say, okay, this is an Isaiah Joe series and this isn't. This is an Aaron Wiggins series and this isn't, this is a Case and Wallace series and this isn't. And your ability to, yo, yo, those guys in and out of the lineup, modulate their minutes, modulate their place in the rotation, and having a coach who you trust to do that in Mark Dagonault, it's an incredible advantage to have. And so I, I hear you about how the, like, solving the regular season in a lot of practical senses, but show me the team that can stop Shay and that's when I'll start to think, oh, maybe this is more of a regular season team than a playoff team.

[Woz]

Yeah, I, I, I, you know, Shay, I thought was excellent in last year's playoffs. I thought, you know, it felt like they got beat prematurely, especially losing in, in the second round. It overshadowed the fact that Shay was brilliant.

[Rob Mahoney]

He was great in that series.

[Woz]

In particular, in that series, like, for the first time in Shay's career, he could say, like, yo, I was unstoppable in the playoffs. I anticipate that that will be the case again this postseason. So to me, this isn't really a, it's never been a Shay question for me. There are the kind of superstars, MVPs even, who, James Harden, Joel Embiid who go into the playoffs and be like, hmm, are they gonna be able to replicate that level of production when it gets to the postseason against the best half court defenses? Like, we've had those questions before. I don't have that with Shay. I know he's gonna kick ass. Like, that's not even a question. I think for the Thunder, it is about the Isaiah Joes and the Chets and the Hartensteins and, you know, and the case and Wallace's and what these guys are gonna be able to do around him and J Dub even too, because he struggled in the second round, especially what those guys are able to do around him.

[Rob Mahoney]

Not to give Isaiah and Ben more work, but we really need a 3D model of a generic media member every time Woz busts out the impression who just turns into a digital puppet to give us the straw men to battle against. Like, I just want, I want a visualization of what this guy looks like.

[Justin Varior]

Woz, GPT Although I'M a little scared.

[Rob Mahoney]

To find out, Justin, that maybe he just looks like us. The generic media member.

[Woz]

Generic media member is like member those like graphics you get of the like the Median American in 2050 basically kind of looks Samoan or whatever.

[Rob Mahoney]

Like that's the generic medium future post racial society.

[Justin Varior]

Exactly.

[Rob Mahoney]

In which we have fully melting potted together. That's. That's who you're speaking from.

[Woz]

Yes, Sir.

[Justin Varior]

But I 100% agree with what you guys are saying. I do think there's like some margin for error. The fact that they have so many options, maybe they'll spend some time cycling through some of the wrong ones before they land on the the correct one. But that's what Mark Dagnol fallen for. And I do think he's been good at pulling the levers, getting development out of certain guys at certain times and playing the right guys at certain times. So I do think that we're at Ockham's Razor where this with there is a gap between the Thunder and everybody else. And I do think it will bear out in the postseason. But if you guys are looking at the other field practically, is there one team that sticks out as like that is their primary competition Because a lot of these teams practically finished one or two games apart.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Justin Varior]

From two until eight, we're talking four games wise.

[Rob Mahoney]

Do you feel great about any of these specific challengers?

[Woz]

I think everybody's going to give them a hard time. I really do. I think this version of the Clippers, if they beat the Nuggets, it's because Kawhi Leonard's still playing well. That version of the Clippers is going to give this team a hard time. The Nuggets, who, you know, I'm hearing Nicola Jokic got a new pep in his step. Feeling reinvigorated somehow. The Nuggets, I think will give them a hard ass time. I think their toughest matchup is the Lakers. Actually the last two times they played they lost, were on the road to losing until Luka got ejected for yelling at a fan and the ref mistakenly thought he was yelling at him. I think the Lakers are their worst matchup because if only because they can't press any of the Lakers weaknesses right. Like they can't even, you know, when somebody like kind of pokes the sore in a movie, like a guy's in the hospital and the dirty cop shows up and he like puts his finger in his sword, he's like, give me the goods right now. Like they're not able to do that to the Lakers. And their big man weaknesses and maybe you could say, oh, they could target Luca defensively or you know, do these other things. And mainly that's what I think is their problem. They don't have any great Luka answers defensively because we love J Dub, we love Shay, we love, you know, Lou Dort, but Lou Dort is even a little too short to, to guard Luka Doncic. Right. But the problem with that is like I think Golden State is, would beat the Lakers in a series. I think that's a problematic matchup for the Lakers. And so I just, I just think the way the, the west is shaken out, you know, I, I, I, I, I don't know, man, they might not even have to play the Lakers, who I think is their toughest matchup.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I think the rock, paper, scissors nature of that muddle in the middle of the west makes it really tough to parse the like big picture challenger to the, to the Thunder. But you're right as on like a individual game, individual series level of who the Thunder would run up against. The Lakers are a very particular kind of threat and a particular kind of threat in Luca that they have not had a lot of success zeroing out and really challenging as of yet. Like they're still trying to figure out what to do with a player like Luca in a series and that's to say nothing of LeBron James sitting right over there as a backup playmaker or secondary playma. I think to your point though was like each of these teams has an element that you could say I believe in Jokic being able to bully some of these Thunder bigs and Denver had I think the single most explosive game against the Thunder defense all season. Back in March the Lakers had those two back to back games you mentioned in which they really put something on the table says like this is our body of work against this team, this is what we can do. I don't think Mark Dagnault brought out all the stops for those games in particular. I think that the Thunder knew this is a team that we could see in the playoffs and their experimentation is probably more valuable to them than ours would be for us. And so they kind of played it pretty straight overall. But Derek Jones Jr's been one of the few defenders who's actually had some kind of impact on Shea. And so if he plays big minutes in the Clippers series and there's offensive trade offs for that, that could really work in their favor. Golden State beat OKC twice before the Butler trade and so they're a Dramatically new team. I don't know what to make of all that, but their profile is much more dangerous than it used to be. Much more like evolved and adapt it used to be. And so you can see like the germs of an idea for how these teams would put it together. I just don't know that any of them are going to do it for four, like four times in seven. That's, that's a lot to ask.

[Justin Varior]

I do think it's the two LA teams that are probably the scariest to the Thunder. And I think the fact that the Lakers have such top end talent that they can overwhelm any opponent with the juice in the on ball playmaking is such an outlier and it's such an extreme as opposed to some of these other teams that are built a little bit more methodically and more traditionally. It. I think that's the one that is going to worry you because you just don't know how to wrangle three ball handlers who could put up 30 in any given game. And so even though the Thunder have this cavalcade of defensive swipers who could make it very difficult for them, it might just not matter because you just don't have the right guys, enough guys. In order to stop all three of them simultaneously. A lot of it's going to come down to Luka being as healthy as he has. The fact that he's getting to the basket a little bit more of late in the past couple games is very big for them. Obviously the rest games being built in, but the margin for error for this team as opposed to even a team like the Clipper is so narrow, thin, it's like on a razor's edge. If they lose any one of their five guys from that small ball lineup that they've been so successful in, it's basically a wrap because you're counting on having five power forward basically sized guys or four of them, plus Reeves in order to build that advantage, to build collective size to make up for your lack of a rim protector. But if, if things just go right, I can see it going very right.

[Woz]

Here's, here's, here's been the thing to, to sum it up right for me personally just thinking about this variable, um, Dahlinger sent out our NBA survey, right? NBA playoff survey. And I'm looking at the questions then I've been puffing out my chest all year like I'm gonna take the field against the OKC Thunder in the West. They're not going to the finals. But the question was Simple. It's like, pick your two finals teams.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yep.

[Woz]

And then I just tried to pick one of these other teams individually, and it's just hard. I've seen all of these guys fall flat on their face at various different points in the season all year. And like, I'm just, you know, I'm faced, you know, have to look in the mirror of my own hypocrisy and I'm just like, Jesus Christ, am I really about to pick the Thunder right now after just ragging on these guys all year? It's embarrassing.

[Rob Mahoney]

I think you are about to pick the Thunder right now, but that is it, right? As far as Thunder and inevitability goes, if you want to argue for anyone else, you have to make the case. You have to explain why that team could beat the Thunder, how they could outlast the Thunder, how they could get around a defense that's this formidable. It's, it's a lot to ask again of any of these teams to do it consistently enough, not to say getting through every other team in the field along the way to get to the NBA Finals. Like just beating the Thunder is really, really difficult. And so I really don't see any of these Western Conference teams doing it. I think their flaws are a little too fatal. I think the Thunder have too many options. I do think that, as we said, the Lakers probably present the most direct challenge, mostly because they can manipulate okc's bigs in a way that other challengers can't. Like even someone like Kawhi Leonard doesn't like pull and poke at Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hart and Stein in the same way, doesn't challenge them. Pulling them out on the perimeter, putting so much pressure on your backline defense when it's a little bit smaller. The threats are just different when you have Luka and LeBron involved in their ability to mismatch Hunt and their ability, because of their size, to render someone like Kayson Wallace, for example, a little not irrelevant.

[Woz]

Non starter.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's just kind of a non starter as far as those matchups go. And so, yeah, as well said Lou Dort has to play big, has to play a lot, has to stay out of foul trouble. So I think he can do those things most nights and most importantly, I think their team defense can accomplish everything it needs to collectively.

[Justin Varior]

And obviously seating going to play a huge factor in here. Probably more so than I could ever remember in my outlook for one conference playoffs where it's like the Thunder getting a hobbled Grizzlies team with John Morant practically breaking every single game that he's playing at this point versus the Lakers, who have to go through the wolves in the first round in order to get to the ultimate like Western Conference finals. It's just like a completely different task.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, you're assuming that the Grizzlies even make it.

[Justin Varior]

Well, yeah, I mean I don't see the Kings or the Mavs beating them per se, even without Ja Morant, but we'll see.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, but not getting Golden State in that game is a big deal. You know, if we're going to talk about the warriors as an actual serious contender, someone who can actually scare some of these high end teams, not just in the west but around the league, getting them out of your immediate like eyeline is a big deal.

[Justin Varior]

Totally. We'll talk about each individual Western Conference matchup a little later on. Let's go to number two on the variables. It bops.

[Rob Mahoney]

I just want to know your state of mind that led you into this particular genre. Like what were you, what was your creative mindset?

[Woz]

He was tired of picking heavy metal. That's it.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, dude, I wanted one year, right?

[Justin Varior]

I can't remember anymore there, there definitely was a very rockin one I believe to start the season maybe, but I actually went in looking for soul like old school, 70 style R& B. Unfortunately, finding that with the right keywords without stepping on copyright was a little difficult. So we evolved, you know, so we.

[Rob Mahoney]

Get, we get these sorts of generic beats instead.

[Justin Varior]

There you go. Number two, the waiting game. So we're talking about the east preview right now, unfortunately. I think we all probably agree we're waiting until the conference finals when the Cavs and the Celtics will probably inevitably meet. What are you guys tracking until then? What's the most compelling thing? It could be a storyline, it could be a player, it could be anything. It could be medical staff that you just guys are just fond of for whatever reason. What's on the top of your list until we get to that point?

[Woz]

For me it's. It's the Knicks and it's particularly. It's the OG Anunoby $40 million man. Mikhail Bridges six first round draft pick man, and Karl Anthony Towns. Like OG got paid because he was seen as a key ingredient to making this team a serious contender. And they brought the other two in for that same reason. Right. And I think to me it's all eyes on those three guys and able to prove that they're the type of core that could carry a team in the biggest moments in the Playoffs. Like that's what I'm watching. To me, I think Brunson has shown like he'll make big shots. He can score against pretty much anyone. Like he's going to be bad at defense. Like we kind of know what Brunson has to offer. It's those other three in this context that I'm going to be looking towards.

[Rob Mahoney]

Maybe not just even the other three too, but how many guys on their bench are actually playable? How many are going to survive and not just a matchup against the Pistons.

[Woz]

Which Landry Shammit be ready to pay 25 minutes a game, brother.

[Rob Mahoney]

He's, he's kind of been cooking lately. I don't know that I'm believing him because we've, we've lived, we've lived through this before. Landry Shamit. But he's going to get his chances, right? Like he campaign Deuce McBride who's had kind of an up and down year, but it's so important to the Knicks. All those guys are going to get burned. Mitchell Robinson, I think is walking into one of his more favorable matchups in terms of this Pistons team. Like, yeah, you're going to test him in the pick and roll, but at least it's a team with traditional bigs and a place for you to, to occupy and battle with physicality. That makes sense to me. I am interested in the Knicks, but I think I'm, I'm not even leaving the Cavs from my thing that I'm monitoring, which is I'm wondering, did Cleveland peak early or did they just get bored? No one would blame them for kind of going through a little bit of a Lull, but since 3-1-15 and 8, they were ninth on offense, 15th on defense. That's basically the profile, like the Milwaukee Bucks overall for the season. And so are the Cavs, the team that stormed out to an incredible start and looked dominant and then took their foot off the gas, which is, to me, to be honest, is what it feels like. Or have they settled into something that isn't as competitive as we thought they might be?

[Justin Varior]

You look Jared Allen in the eye and you talked all about his cat with him, you bonded over it and here you are just throwing him under, under the bus.

[Woz]

Unbelievable. Tigers.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm telling you right now, I believe that they are the team we saw early in the season and they did not have sufficient motivation in part because the Celtics also didn't seem super interested in the regular season for a variety of reasons to really push hard all the way through. And maybe that'll serve them in the end, right? Like maybe, maybe ultimately them not going 100 miles an hour through the entire regular season is a good thing. But you got to find that gear again. You got to find the gear that you had not just in, you know, not all the way back to November, December, but even like January. Can you be the team that you were in January again? I think they have every tool at their disposal to be that, and I fully expect it. But you got to prove it.

[Woz]

So you don't think they're the 2007 Mavericks is what you're saying?

[Rob Mahoney]

I do not think they're the 2007 Mavericks per se.

[Justin Varior]

But if the Bulls get in, who's.

[Rob Mahoney]

To say we the we believe Bulls?

[Justin Varior]

Yeah, there you go. The, the Rondo TNT Bulls just bringing them back. At what point do you think you will be worried? Do you think that's going to come to bear in the first round, do you think in the second round potentially against like the Bucks popping up, what, what scares you until you get to the conference finals?

[Rob Mahoney]

With all respect to the we believe Bulls or whoever makes it out of this play in group, I don't think anything in the first round is going to be particularly scary. And so you're, you're really looking at that second round matchup, right? Like, whoever makes it out between the Pacers and the Bucks is going to have to prove something to get there and is going to be able to at least push the Cavs a little bit, right? To, to mess with the matchup, to exploit a little bit of weakness, to challenge Evan Mobley to be one of the best defensive players in the world, as he's shown to be. To show, you know, where is, where does push come to shove with Donovan Mitchell and his role with this team, where he has to go into that takeover gear that we've seen him I think err into and sometimes unsuccessfully in playoff runs past when he's had to do that much. But like, where are those kind of fault lines for the Cavs is something that I'm watching.

[Justin Varior]

Yeah, those are both good answers I agree with was that the Knicks early performances probably have the most legs in terms of impact later on in the east playoffs. Personally, I'm kind of looking forward to what we're going to get with playoff Giannis because we haven't seen him in so long. And so I'm just kind of want to recalibrate where Giannis is just in the hierarchy of things because the last time he played a fully healthy playoffs. So before they Got ejected by the heat. This is 21, 20, 22, where they made it the second round, lost to the Celtics. 31.7 points, 14.2 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.3 blocks. He's one of the absolute menaces in the postseason. And I think you could write off the past couple of results in the playoffs as Giannis just wasn't available. I know the Bucks definitely believe that. Well, let's see. They don't have the horses in order to make probably even a push past the first round, let alone the second. But I'm just curious because I want to see one of the best players on the biggest stages.

[Woz]

I mean, in 23 against the Heat, he missed multiple games in the. In that series.

[Justin Varior]

Yeah.

[Woz]

Yeah. So he was not himself in that series. I'll just say this. Giannis, since Dame has gone down, it's basically gone back to Giannis ball, which is. Just spread him out. Let Giannis be the creator, be the. Be all, end all. Like, do all of that, and that's fine. And Danny in the regular season, but that has not always been a great course of action for the Bucks in the playoffs, so we'll see.

[Rob Mahoney]

They're a little more predictable, for sure. And there's. There's a lot of weird whispering and reporting right now that Damian Lillard has some chance to come back and play with this blood clot issue. I. I find that hard to believe, but. So I don't know.

[Woz]

So at the time of the diagnosis, or whenever he got on the. I was about to say paint thinners on the. On the blood thinners. Whenever he got on that. The diagnosis would be four to six weeks. And I think we're about. I think we're four weeks out right now.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Woz]

Or next week. Sorry. Next week we will be four weeks out. So a week from today, we will have been four weeks out from that. So I understand how they're finessing that. It just seems unlikely, man, that this guy would come back in five weeks or something like that. Just. I just don't. I don't know. But I get why you want to give the fans some hope. Yeah.

[Justin Varior]

That would obviously change the shape of this first round, and obviously the Bucks future we'll get into that probably a little bit later seems unlikely, especially considering what a scary potential thing that is and the fact that, like, Wemby was shut down immediately for the rest of the season earlier in the year when he went down with a similar thing. So we'll see about that. But I don't know I'm just. I'm keeping an eye on the Bucs because I think the Pacers should win that series. But if Giannis is just going to go supernova, like, anything's possible.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's the thing. If the Bucks win, it will be representative of Giannis going absolutely hog wild. And so, yeah, it's a great thing to kind of keep the pulse on so far. I'm also kind of wondering what the state of Jaylen Brown's knee is in these early rounds.

[Woz]

Zay got scared two days ago talking about that knee.

[Rob Mahoney]

It hasn't looked great. And he can still play well despite that. He's an incredibly skilled player. He has enough going for him that he can make things work. But a lot of the Celtics flexibility depends on their core guys being incredibly agile, incredibly versatile, able to handle a wide variety of assignments and responsibilities. And when you're ailing a little bit, it's limits your capacity to do that.

[Justin Varior]

You guys are fully expecting Cavs, Celtics, unless something dramatic happens.

[Rob Mahoney]

I am.

[Woz]

I am, too.

[Justin Varior]

Okay. I am as well. All right, let's go to number three then. The looming off season.

[Woz]

I was like, why is Justin looking to the sky right now?

[Rob Mahoney]

He's trying to remember his SoundCloud password.

[Woz]

Crap.

[Justin Varior]

You don't seem to be is into the groove.

[Rob Mahoney]

I gotta say, it just doesn't speak to me, you know, in the way that apparently the metal did. I would not have anticipated that.

[Justin Varior]

But maybe Postal Service ripoff next time for you.

[Rob Mahoney]

Well, see, we're halfway there. You know, you jazzed this up a little bit and certainly put like an indie vocal over the top, and all of a sudden we have a Postal Service song.

[Justin Varior]

That's true. It's true. Okay, so the impact on the off season from the playoffs vantage point, which team or person has the most on the line this postseason? I'm going to actually go first in this one because we're just talking about the Bucks and Giannis. I would say the Giannis chatter has become quite loud, kind of unignorable. I think a lot of it has filtered into the public at large. I have been going to games in the Hoop Summit over the past week, and I would say two to three people brought it up. Just off hands, like, have you heard about Giannis? If you heard about this buzz that's kind of building, There's a lot of.

[Rob Mahoney]

People just asking questions, you know, just like, what happens if they lose in this fashion? What happens if it looks like this? What happens if Dame asks out? Or is Dame already anticipating Giannis asking out like a lot of tea leaves to read, certainly with that team.

[Justin Varior]

And then our friend was dropped a link to us the other day after we were talking about this behind the scenes. A weird quote from Giannis in which he. Let's just say, first and foremost, he was saying this in a joking man, and he even says he made. He was talking about the Lakers, and I guess the beat writers were asking about the Laker, Luka going back to Dallas. And he said, let's say something funny was his interlude into this, which. All right. And he basically posited, well, maybe all of the European superstars should go to the big markets. Luca to the Lakers, maybe Jokic wants to go to the Knicks. He didn't say himself, but you know what? Sure sounds like he might be projecting a little bit. And I would say in the past, Giannis hasn't done a good job at maybe concealing his feelings. You know, he isn't very good at putting the veil over what he truly thinks. And so that seemed a little curious to me. Was. Did it to you as well?

[Woz]

Not really. If you put the totality of Giannis's public statements into full context. And I've said this before, and I'll say it again, we paint Giannis with the poor, humble immigrant, blah, blah, blah, nonsense that we throw on all the international guys basically with a broad brush. But let me tell you something. Giannis loves his numbers. He loved tracking his little triple doubles. He loved it when he was getting all eyes on me for the mvp. He absolutely is very individual, recognition minded. He is. And I think him seeing Luka Doncic shoot to number one in jersey sales, Luka was never close to that. Giannis pays attention to who's selling the most jerseys, bro, I promise you, because it's another individual stat. And so he sees all of that and he's like, ain't shit changed with this dude going to the Lakers. Like, damn, that's what happens when you go to a major media market and, you know, basically all of the same contributions that you've been doing since you become a star in this league just gets magnified because of this new platform. He notices that. And I think the chatter is just around Giannis being like, look, I did my small market thing for a decade plus. I put the blood, sweat and tears in.

[Rob Mahoney]

Let me go be him.

[Woz]

Let me go be a matinee idol somewhere.

[Rob Mahoney]

I also don't have a problem with someone like him valuing those individual achievements. Like, I. I think it's cool when a guy wants to win something as long as their priorities don't shift away at in a way that's like detrimental to the team. Right. Like you would never look at Giannis and say, okay, his pursuit of these statistical benchmarks, his pursuit of an MVP comes at the cost of being a good team player because it comes at the cost of being a great defender. Like, I, I think he does enough of the all around stuff. And yes, there are some indulgences of.

[Woz]

Efficient offense at times, but I digress.

[Rob Mahoney]

My guy shoots like 70% from the field and has been a part of one of the most efficient offenses for the vast majority of his playing prime. Like, I, I think it's fair game for stars to take some shots that we may disagree with. I think it's fair game for them to try to stretch their games and see, I know I'm not a shooter, but like, I'm going to see if I can hit these threes. And I think some of that paid off this season in terms of his evolution from the mid range too. Like, it is a process. And so I don't think, given as was said, Giannis's body of work and the commitment he's shown to the city of Milwaukee so far and the Bucks so far. If, if the Bucks are out, the problem is not the small market, big market thing. It's that you look at the Bucks and say, how is this team going to get better? Like what, what is the path forward?

[Justin Varior]

Yes. Independent of his personal goals or even this backdoor rumor mongering that's kind of taken in a life of its own. I think the Bucks have run their course, you know, like they're going to start if Dame doesn't miraculously show up for game one. A guy at point guard who had to be converted from his two way in March. That was a month.

[Rob Mahoney]

Ryan Rollins don't Ryan Rollins under the bus.

[Justin Varior]

You seem like a cool guy, but you shouldn't be starting at point guard for a guy who's in the MVP conversation every single time. And so I don't know, actually, I don't know if I want to step into this. But I do want to ask you now that we have had two years of this going forward, like, are we sure that the Dame Lillard trade was the right move for them? Because I know that like Giannis was saying things yet again two years ago about wanting upgrades and having eyes for other places. I just think back, I'm like, well, Drew, plus maybe another move where you use some of those picks to buoy what that construction had might have still worked. But then again like Chris Middleton was always hurt. Everyone was just getting older. So I don't know, maybe it would have been this regardless.

[Woz]

But do we, do we think the Drew Holiday Chris Middleton on one wheel version of this is better than Boston? No.

[Justin Varior]

No, no.

[Woz]

Well, I guess Boston doesn't have Drew.

[Rob Mahoney]

Holiday who's honestly not an insignificant thing.

[Woz]

The skeleton key to championships apparently if the media is to be believed.

[Rob Mahoney]

But like I don't, I don't Drew Holiday true thing.

[Justin Varior]

Brad Beal over here just, just knocking Drew Holiday for no reason.

[Woz]

How dare you disrespect respect me. I, I don't know. I, I, I think I loved the idea at the time because their problem was half court offensive efficiency.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Woz]

And Dame Lillard, his whole career has been a part of efficient ass half court offenses. Like I underst I, the deal made sense to me at the time. It just straight up hasn't worked. And that's, that's the game, man. Like I'd rather see teams do this than do the Danny Ainge and just wait for the perfect trade even if it takes 10 years. Like I don't, I'd rather the Bucks did this than did nothing in my opinion.

[Rob Mahoney]

I don't disagree with you was but I have to put it to you as the preeminent push it all in, go for it advocate I would say in, in the broader NBA universe, like do things like the Suns give you pause at all of a team that just like went for it, went for it, went for it, went for it and now are on the, on the, like the precipice of destruction.

[Woz]

So I think it's different versions of it. I think the Nuggets going all in this year and perhaps telling Michael Porter Jr. And some other things and being like yo, we're going to bring in a bonafide All Star to give this a different shape. Yes. The Suns just haphazardly trying to build off of a thing that Chris Paul built. Let's be keep it a thousand without him. And it's just like I don't think so. And that's the same reason why, you know, like my man Tom Habistro like put out a stat that like Yoko just never played with an All Star. It's kind of crazy. He's never played with an All Star.

[Justin Varior]

That's also like a little, I don't know, it's a little cheap. Like Jamal Murray was on the fringes practically every year.

[Rob Mahoney]

Like they never made it.

[Justin Varior]

They have A core four that's like unlike anything else. He's never hear what you're saying.

[Woz]

He's never been snubbed from an All Star team. Just. He just straight up has never been good enough to make an All Star team available.

[Justin Varior]

Right?

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, that's a big deal.

[Woz]

But what I'll say about that is.

[Justin Varior]

It speaks to the quantity of games. But yeah, it's both.

[Woz]

I think it's both. I think the idea that Jokic would demand a trade, I think KD is a cautionary tale. Like, I think that's a bad idea to demand a trade. I think it's just like, yo, make the shit that's over here better. This idea that they're going to ship me, send all of this stuff, send all of their best young guys, send all of their good cheap contracts, value contracts, plus their most overpaid player to get me in there. And then what? Like, I like. I think again, Golden State around Steph. Yeah, man, push the chips in. Take a chance on Steph Curry. Take a chance on Jokic by upgrading what's around him completely starting from scratch by just plopping shit together. I don't think is a good idea.

[Justin Varior]

I don't think the issue with the Dame trade was trading for Dame. I think it was the fact that what was left over for Giannis and Dame was just not at the level that they needed to. They only had had like three to four decent rotation players this entire time. Dame was practically an All Star this season. And even though the pairing itself hasn't melded in in a way that is just like Stockton and Malone 2.0, like, they just haven't had the requisite depth in order to trudge through a season. Because both of those guys are older, Damon particular. Giannis has gotten hurt more recently in recent years. And so it really. I think they would have ended up in this situation regardless unless they would have had found a way to add like three to four guys to support even the Drew Chris Middleton, Giannis situation.

[Rob Mahoney]

Question.

[Justin Varior]

True.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah. What's up?

[Woz]

Question to just stay on this. Bucks and Nuggets. Let's just say they both flame out in the first round this year. Would you trade Dane for Jamal Murray?

[Rob Mahoney]

For who?

[Woz]

Dane for Jamal Murray.

[Rob Mahoney]

Like, for the Bucks. Yeah, I think so.

[Justin Varior]

Yeah, I think. I think you would rather Jamal Murray at this point just because he's younger. Runway.

[Woz]

Yeah, but like, but, but it also.

[Rob Mahoney]

That swap doesn't get you anywhere. Like, it doesn't get where you need to go. Yeah, you have the same Construction of a team. And this is where, like, revisit the question of, like, how do we feel about the trade? I. The premise made sense to us then. It still makes sense to me now in the sense that, like, you get the star when you can get them, and you don't always get to pick and choose who that is or what their state is. When they come to your team, like, maybe they're a little injured, maybe they're a little run down, maybe they're Damian Lillard at this stage in his career, that's all well and good as long as you think it can get you over the top and you anticipate, okay, we're going to make the two and three moves later that we need to. To round out this rotation. And the Bucks have never been able to do that. They've never really been able mine. You know, the Chris Dunn types that you just need to turn out to make a rotation work. Right. They've been stuck with, like, I guess we're just living and dying with Gary Trent jumpers tonight. You know, like, that's. That's what their fate has been in terms of their supporting cast.

[Justin Varior]

I've always said that the most challenging thing in team building is getting a superstar. And once you have a superstar, it's literally everything else.

[Rob Mahoney]

And you're right.

[Justin Varior]

It's like the Marshon Bochamps. It's the A.J. johnson swing, the misses that just never came to bear. They need depth. That's. They've always needed depth. All right, but we did 20 minutes on this, so do you guys have a different answer for this question? Team or person? Yeah. Okay.

[Woz]

Yeah, it's actually Murray and. And Porter Jr. Uh, these guys, I think they're on the clock. Um, I really do. And it's because I did talk to my man Adam Mahrez last weekend, and he's as plugged in in Denver as anybody, and he's like, bro, I think they're going to try to get an All Star this off season.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yep.

[Woz]

And you cannot do that because of the nature of the salary cap without moving one or two of the. Of those two guys, obviously you're not moving Nikola Jokic. Um, and so those all eyes are on those guys and what the Nuggets decide to do this off season if they can't prove, like, no, we're game to be, you know, back to being the type of 2023 championship contender that we were.

[Rob Mahoney]

I mean, that's not a franchise that's operating in a conservative way right now. Like, they are Angling to make big, decisive changes. So it makes sense that those two guys would be on the clock.

[Justin Varior]

It's a bleak situation, though. I need to trade the guy we just extended at max money. Not max years, but max money for a guy who's better at the same level of play. Like, man, I don't know how they're going to pull that off, but that's where.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's where you're angling for something like a dame trade, right? Not him specifically, but someone who is.

[Woz]

Less years on the deal.

[Rob Mahoney]

Less years on the deal. Like a little older. For a team that maybe is trying to get younger or reset in their own way, I think that's going to be on the table. I also think the Grizzlies, there's just like a very real chance that we're seeing the end of the John Morant, Desmond Bain, Jaren Jackson version of this team. Another team that's been operating with an incredible sense of urgency, as they have told us. So I. I think there's going to be real changes in Memphis, too.

[Justin Varior]

Watching Ja go out or at least hobble his way through the end of that game was so depressing. The fact that this just keeps happening, it's not here again, fault per se, but, like, just his body just isn't built for the way he's gonna play.

[Woz]

It's. It's crazy. Cause it's so, like. Pulls me in different directions. Like, watch the visceral feeling of John Morant. Do all of the crazy stuff that he does. When I'm talking to a buddy, we're texting during the game, he's like, bro, he's getting hurt. Cause all the acrobatics, I'm like, yo. But that's what makes him Ja. That's what makes this guy singular. But, like, maybe a more conventional approach would save his body more. Man, it's such a paradox for me.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah. But if he takes a more conventional approach, who is he as a player? I think down the stretch of that game, there was actually some pretty good evidence that he could play more conservatively. Like he was just kind of trying to be responsible with that ankle and was still able to make a difference. That said, was getting targeted on defense. Like, on defense, as injured players often are when they try to hobble through a game. I respect the way John Morant plays a lot, and I think his creativity is so central to what makes him an appealing player, what makes him a superstar. And if you're not leaving your feet outside the paint every time and giving Yourself, those chances to be creative. Who are you at that point?

[Justin Varior]

Yeah. All right. Number four, playoff guys.

[Rob Mahoney]

Okay. No. No one needs that.

[Justin Varior]

This one has two parts. Part one, which guy is going to be a guy this postseason, also known as. Who's like, your X factor? Who's the guy who might make a huge difference that you didn't see coming?

[Rob Mahoney]

I have a whole spectrum of guys, to the surprise of no one. Can you give me a baseline, Justin, of when you're thinking about guy becoming a guy? Who are you talking about?

[Justin Varior]

You want to give me. Want me to give you my answer here?

[Rob Mahoney]

Give me one name.

[Justin Varior]

Well, I'll give you two because I initially picked Austin Reeves, but I think he might have, like, crossed the threshold.

[Rob Mahoney]

He's already a capital G guy or dude. A dude, dare we say.

[Justin Varior]

And so I went with the SAR Thompson, a guy who's going to beyond the biggest guys for whomever they face in the playoffs. If Jalen Brunson is going to be hobbled, I think it's not going to help to have one of the most hounding defenders in the league kind of picking him up before half court. Probably.

[Rob Mahoney]

He could definitely ruin Jalen Brunson season. And is Amen Thompson too much of a guy to be a guy?

[Justin Varior]

No, he's way too mainstream. We almost didn't pick him for group chat player of the year because he was so.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I mean, that's true. I'm just. I'm just trying to figure out what.

[Woz]

How many awards can we give to a min Thompson at this point?

[Rob Mahoney]

Like, I mean, we'll make up some more. He's deserving of all of them. The Zubots. Count Avitza. Zubots.

[Woz]

No, I love that. Too much of a guy, especially as an X factor.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's the thing. He's going to go toe to toe with one of the best players in the world, and his ability to hold up defensively might swing that whole series.

[Justin Varior]

It's true.

[Woz]

I mean, my. My X factor guy was in the same sort of realm as a zoobox. And it's Lou Dorrit who made half of his threes in the first round of last year's playoffs, then in the second round shot 30%.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yep.

[Woz]

I think he's going to be more consistently reliable from three this year. And that's going to make a huge difference in the Thunder offense because it just balances the lineup so beautifully. When you can't leave this guy wide open and have these record scratch possessions while he's doing, you know, defensive player of the year work on the other end.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yep.

[Justin Varior]

Who else did you have, Rob?

[Rob Mahoney]

Ty Jerome. I think the world is about to figure out who Ty Jerome is and he's one of the NBA's gutsiest shot bakers. I think a Cleveland run would be awesome for him. Christian Brown I think is ready for a different kind of primetime. He's already proven to be a real.

[Woz]

Playoff performer and somebody earn his keep against Harden.

[Rob Mahoney]

He will. And like a lot will be asked of him, but I think he's up to that challenge. Nikhil Alexander Walker, because if the Wolves do make it out of the first round, it will be because he put Austin Reeves in clamps for the majority of that series.

[Woz]

And he made his threes.

[Rob Mahoney]

And he made his threes. Isaiah Stewart will get ejected. Will also win some games for Detroit. I feel pretty good about that. Jairus Walker has had a really interesting month and I don't know if he is a factor for the Pacers or.

[Woz]

Not, but this is an interesting month for Jairus Walker. This is.

[Justin Varior]

You are the only one.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm just saying facts.

[D]

I'm just.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm just saying things that are empirically true.

[Justin Varior]

You two can complain when James Walker.

[Rob Mahoney]

Has a podium game. I will accept your apologies.

[Woz]

Been a little while since Rob has shoehorned this man into a group chat, but just hearing it, I felt a pang. I'm like, jarris Walker went back to this again.

[Justin Varior]

It brings you back. Those are some good ones, though. Let's look to part B of this, which is the other end of the spectrum. Who's going to be the queen on the chessboard for this postseason? And now I want to clearly define this because this isn't necessarily who's the best player in the league because obviously we would all say Jokic. I think it's a combination of the best player. But also with a team on a team with a chance to do something significant, I am more muted on the Nuggets chances to even get out of the first round. And so I wouldn't say Jokic. I'm curious what you guys have. Rob, do you want to.

[Woz]

I didn't understand the question, so I just picked the Celtics.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I'm still not trying to understand the question.

[Woz]

Beat the champs. And so I'm like, Celtics, Tatum, boss guy.

[Justin Varior]

You got to go through the guy that you're most afraid like. So, for instance, Shea is the best player probably on the best team.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yes.

[Justin Varior]

But like, are you as afraid of Shay as you are, for instance, LeBron? Because LeBron, anything can happen. You Just have to go through that guy.

[Rob Mahoney]

But you don't have to go through that guy because that guy might lose to the wolves.

[Woz]

Yeah, I just didn't. Yeah. Like these guys who could lose in the first round, I can't.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's what makes it harder.

[Woz]

You the queen on the chessboard. If I could easily see you losing.

[Rob Mahoney]

To the wolves if you're losing the queen on your chessboard in the equivalent of a first round series, you're not very good at chess.

[Woz]

Yeah. So I just, that's why I was just like Boston, man, to be the champs, you gotta beat the champs and straight up and down. If Cleveland actually beats Boston, then like to me, they're my championship favorite. Straight up. Like, they're my pick to win the finals. If these guys find a way to beat Boston four times, you know, like, that's how I see it. So that's why I'm like, it's the champs, it's Boston, it's Tatum, it's, you know, make Tatum look average. You know, make, make them pay for playing an injured Jalen Brown. You know, somebody finally attacked Derrick White with some consistency. Nobody ever does it.

[Justin Varior]

You know, your, your entire chessboard is full of queens is what you're saying. You have, you have a team where.

[Woz]

The queen learn how to play chess. That's another thing that fucked up this question.

[Rob Mahoney]

Off season project for wise learn how to play chess. We'll, we'll send them to the park. But I took it in a similar direction to maybe fit the brief slightly more. Justin, I'm going to say it's like a combination Tatum and Brown situation and anything other than that feels a little disrespectful to what the Celtics are. And you can put those guys on each other's shoulders, you can tie them together like a, like a three legged race situation. However you want to make them one guy. But their combined ability to respond not just to adversity, but to tactical, like distinctions in a series and the evolution of how these like these matchups evolve over time, the balance in their skill sets, all of that is so tough to overcome. It's really hard to get a foothold against the Celtics to understand like, so where do we attack? So how, how can we get leverage in this series? And a lot of that comes down to Tatum and Brown being as balanced as they are.

[Justin Varior]

It appears that I did not define the question well enough in order to get a good answer. So maybe we just move along.

[Woz]

I do want to say though, shout out to those two black queens In Boston, man. In. In Tatum and Brown.

[Rob Mahoney]

What are you doing? What are you doing?

[Justin Varior]

Number five.

[Rob Mahoney]

You say it as if it's an inside. I'm not touching it.

[Woz]

I'm not touching it.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm backing up. Some days you just got to get out of the frame with laws and you don't want to be in the clip. And that's. That's what today is.

[Justin Varior]

Number five predictions. All right.

[Rob Mahoney]

Are you going to go yourself, like, of where your career has gone?

[Justin Varior]

Absolutely not. I did not expect to be here for sure. All right. We're going to predict every series on the board and for every series that we actually have, the matchup. So not the one. I guess we're going to give a key to every matchup. Although, let's be honest, we're going to pick the ones in both series. Let's start with the east, because I think we can breeze through this a little bit. Cavs versus Whomever. We're going to pick the Cavs. Yes. Thumbs up. Great.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yes.

[Justin Varior]

Celtics. Magic. Who do you got?

[Rob Mahoney]

Celtics and six.

[Woz]

Same.

[Justin Varior]

Okay. I didn't pick games, but I also have the Celtics. What do we have for the key for this series?

[Rob Mahoney]

I think it's about, like, how do you extend this series if you're the Magic? And the way to do that is the only way to actually gum up what Boston does is you have to force a lot of turnovers. This is one of the lowest turnover teams in the league in the Celtics against a team that generates a ton of them. And so if the Magic, like, physicality can actually disrupt some of that ball movement, then you've got a shot, then you're getting out in transition, then you're getting easy points. If it doesn't. The Orlando offense is just dead in the water against this team. Like, they just cannot score enough if they're not generating momentum in transition. So I think the possession battle is actually pretty big.

[Woz]

To me. It's about can you guard Tatum respectably, you know, keep, like, honestly not have to send a shit ton of help or God forbid, double teams at them. And you know, if Paolo and Franz and Tony Black and all these other guys, when they get on him on switches, if they can maintain their integrity and keep Boston at a reasonable half court offense efficiency, then okay. But we know they're not going to score. So, like, I don't know, like, look.

[Rob Mahoney]

Some days, apparently Cole Anthony is just going to hit all his shots. Like that is a thing that can happen.

[Woz]

That's fair.

[Justin Varior]

I wrote down score more than 85 points a game.

[Rob Mahoney]

It does help. It does help.

[Woz]

Yeah. We, everybody want to bring the 90s back come to this Boston Magic series.

[Justin Varior]

I, I'm surprised you said six though, Rob, because I, I could see this four at most.

[Woz]

Boston taking it easy, just like save our legs for the real teams.

[Rob Mahoney]

I also think this is the one matchup that Orlando actually is kind of built for like this. This is what they do is muck up teams like this and they do have so much length and they do have so much like, I mean their defense is. It's just that they don't have enough to score.

[Justin Varior]

Yeah. All right, Knicks, Pistons.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm Knicks in six on this one, Nicks in seven.

[Justin Varior]

I'm going to go Knicks in six. I guess I could see it in five. I think this is where the Pistons kind of top out on what has been a very nice season for them. The offense can be sludgy, especially if they're not hitting their shots. And I do think like, despite everything that's happened for the Knicks, if they are whole, if Jalen Brunson is healthy, which we don't know, he kind of like slept walk through the remaining couple of games in order to be all NBA eligible, this is still one of the best teams in league. Despite everything that happened. Fifth on offense, like eighth on that rating, this is still a very good team. The top end is still something to behold. So I can see this actually being shorter than we think.

[Woz]

I picked this to be a long series because Karl Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson are going to play 40 minutes a game, which gives the Pistons ample opportunity to spam their pick and roll, which is all they want to do anyway. And that's why I think matchup wise, it's like this team has that heliocentric matchup hunting guy on their team and the Knicks present easy targets for that at both the point of attack and on the back end. And so that's why I'm like, yo, I could just see this going seven. And the Knicks, you know, pull out a nice win at home in front of their fans at the Garden.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's why I think the key thing is not just who guards Cade, but how the Knicks are guarding Cade and how weird they're willing to be because this deep drop shit against Kate Cunningham does not work well. Like, he's too good a mid range shooter. He's too good at reading the floor if you give him any kind of space whatsoever. And so the Knicks have put like they tried to put Mikhail Bridges on him as much as possible to play really conventionally. It hasn't gone great. They've tried Deuce McBride. It still hasn't really gone great. Like, Katis averaged incredible numbers in terms of raw production in these matchups against the Knicks. And The Pistons went 31 in that season series for that reason. Like, he is a very specific kind of threat that, as you're saying, was challenges their best players in exactly where they do not want to be challenged. And so if the Knicks don't get a little bit weird, I think they put a lot of pressure on their offense to just overwhelm this thing. And they can do that. But these games are going to be tighter than they would like.

[Justin Varior]

I think the headline I'd want for the Knicks is that they didn't get dragged into the mud with all of the pistons Bad Boy 2.0 shit. Like, I do think there's a possibility where Isaiah Stewart starts holding Carl Anthony Towns and he starts getting into a whole tizzy there.

[Rob Mahoney]

How many octagons do you think Kat will pitch down his voice for the post game interview after Isaiah Stewart gets ejected?

[Justin Varior]

He's going to go full baritone at that point.

[Rob Mahoney]

I can't wait.

[Justin Varior]

Like, you. You want to end this as soon as possible because you need more rest days than practically every other team on the board. And the Pistons are going to want to literally fight you every single game. And the atmosphere MSG is going to only compound that. Just get out of there, don't deal with the bullshit and just like, almost rise above that in a way that I honestly don't think that they can. But we'll see.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm also surprised to hear you say that, Justin. Like, you are not a rise above it kind of person speaking.

[Justin Varior]

I. I take great umbrage with that.

[Woz]

In fact, very business in the streets.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm just saying.

[Justin Varior]

I would say that's what I want for them. That's what I would prescribe. I'm not necessarily. That's what I want to see.

[Rob Mahoney]

Okay. Do what I say, not what I do.

[Justin Varior]

Exactly.

[Woz]

Okay, so just. Just one last thing. On the Pistons, I learned approximately, like two months ago that Isaiah Stewart was Jamaican. And pretty much everything about this guy came into crystal clear vision for me.

[Rob Mahoney]

Wow.

[Woz]

To the point where, like, he is the stereotype of the angry Jamaican. And now I just saw a clip. He's doing dance. Jamaican dance hall records, too. He's cutting tracks in the studio.

[Rob Mahoney]

I haven't heard these tracks. We gotta get up on the Beef Stew.

[Woz]

Yeah.

[Justin Varior]

Can we hire him for the Next variables.

[Rob Mahoney]

I would love that.

[Woz]

Yeah, let's do it. But yeah, Angry Jamaican Isaiah Stewart is just. It's just perfect.

[Justin Varior]

Chef's Kiss Today's episode is brought to.

[D]

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[Justin Varior]

Pacers Bucks Last one in the East. Rob, what do you got?

[Rob Mahoney]

Pacers in five. Whoa.

[Woz]

Six.

[Justin Varior]

Quick one. I'll go Pacers and six as well. I blew all my Giannis material up top.

[Woz]

Yeah, it's the same thing. For me. It's like Giannis versus a respectable playoff half court defense, which I think the Pacers now actually are when N. Smith and Nemhard are actually in the rotation and Pascal Sekam and stuff like that. And so this is a respectable half court defense. And as Rob said, they're just so predictable, man. Yeah, and that's been Giannis's kryptonite in his whole playoff career, even when things were going great. And so yeah, I just don't think they're going to generate good enough offense and that'll be that.

[Rob Mahoney]

I just don't think they have like, especially without Dame, they don't have the flex scoring that you need. Giannis is going to be great. He's going to put up monster numbers, he's going to dominate.

[Woz]

When he, when he can get it in transition or off of the offensive glass, it's going to be awesome. Yes, but other than that, and they're.

[Rob Mahoney]

I want to give them credit because in the regular season, even after Dame went down their half court offense running that way, playing that style has been quite good. I just think it gets more complicated in the playoffs. They've been doing it so much by committee in a way that is great for the regular season, but makes me a little bit nervous when you start keying in on matchups. Like if Ryan Rollins doesn't get 10 random points, you might lose. If Kyle Kuzma and Gary Trent aren't hitting threes, you might lose. If you're relying on Kevin Porter Jr. To be important for your team, you have already lost. So Pacers in five.

[Justin Varior]

If Jairus Walker goes off for six points, he might. No coming back.

[Rob Mahoney]

Look, some things can't be overcome. Jairus Walker is one of them.

[Justin Varior]

All right, Western Conference Thunder versus tk. I think we'll all pick the Thunder in that one. Rockets and Warriors. This is when it starts getting tough.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm going warriors in seven.

[Justin Varior]

Yeah, I'll do the same.

[Woz]

Warriors in six. I just think the Rockets are so easy to guard, predictable. And the warriors have that veteran know how they got Draymond, Jimmy, like basically barking out orders. Steve Kerr, like these guys. Like I think the Rockets are going to give them a hard, their offense a hard time. But then they have so many ways to guard Jimmy and Steph. That'll be a fascinating thing to pay attention to. But yeah, warriors are going to beat these guys. They can't score.

[Rob Mahoney]

They have all that know how. And I, I think if the Rockets are going to win, it's going to be through more attrition. It's going to be wearing these guys down. The, the size advantages that they have. The way that Amen is going to be trying to swamp and create so much ch. Steph, whether he's on the ball or not. Like this is a young, quick like quick twitch like jet fuel Rockets team. And you can beat that with savvy, but it takes a lot of work to do it and it might take a lot out of you to do it over seven games.

[Woz]

So last night, right, we know the Memphis Grizzlies are the whatever the antithesis of Savvy is that's what they are. However, in the third quarter and throughout the fourth, they had the John Morant pick and roll. They had Desmond Bane just being individually awesome, you know, like making every shot. Like they had these like dynamic capabilities. The Rockets don't possess any of that. None of that.

[Justin Varior]

I'm a little worried about shortchange in the Rockets too much though, because we got into this issue last year going into the first round between the Thunder and the Pelicans, I believe, and now the Pelicans lost Zion and so it was kind of a bit of a moot point. We were all wondering like, could the Pelicans upset the Thunder? Thunder were a week one. And so we're like, that was an actual conversation I remember having. And. And I do wonder if we give too much credit to these teams that we all believe in because of the top end talent, ignoring like the actual results that we just trudged through for six months or however long regular season is where it's like the Rockets have some fucking dogs and they are going to be able to envelop guys like Jimmy and those guys a little bit more than maybe people are expecting. Having said that, I am picking the warriors in part because I did watch Jimmy Butler draw fouls when he was here in Portland the other day. And just watching him being able to like bump guys and nudge them in a way that moves their momentum but doesn't really count as an offensive foul and just manipulate angles just like by leveraging his body and contorting and like almost barreling into guys in order to do so. Like he's a goddamn magician at this point and he's playing at the peak of his powers. Margin for error, super small for them. If they lose one of those guys, I'm concerned. Steph's thumb is a huge concern. I feel like we got 90 cutaways to the wrapping on it last night. What I have down here is Gary Payton ii, the mitt. I do think he is the small ball skeleton key for the Warriors. And not coincidentally, Cur leaned on him last night in the biggest moments against the Memphis Grizzlies. And so I do think he unlocks certain lineups for them. In the very least keeps it so they don't have to go and dig Jonathan Kaminga out from the pile of laundry that Kerr has buried him on.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, I think that door might be closed. The Kaminga experiment seems to be fully over. Maybe there is a random playoff game somewhere along the way where they dust him off and throw him out there just to spice things up and change the matchup a little bit. But I see the Gary Payton vision. I think he is important to the rotation. Like he has to work his minutes have to make some kind of sense as do all of a sudden GI Santos and Quinton Post and all these guys. And I'm a little worried about the size because they do want to play small in that way you're describing. Draymond is going to have to wrestle with some, some real big boys on every, on every board. And Quinton Post, I would say both in terms of his skill set and how Steve Kerr likes to use him. Golden State likes to use Quentin Post against other small teams to be the big force because he's not actually that physical.

[Justin Varior]

He.

[Rob Mahoney]

But he's big enough that he can fake it against smaller teams. You're not going to fake it against Stephen Adams. Like you're not going to fake it against Alper and Shenku. Like those, those guys are going to body.

[Justin Varior]

Peyton is more of a center than Quinton Post is the center a little bit.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah.

[Justin Varior]

Yeah. I do think it puts a spotlight on Pajemski and Moody, both of whom have been good of late, but now it's more, it's less of like can these guys be long term pieces? Can they be current day rotation players that we're going to rely on for 30 plus minutes and so we'll see. That's going to be an awesome series.

[Rob Mahoney]

I want to flag one more thing about Jimmy too, who was awesome down the stretch in that Grizzlies game and his ability to handle the ball opens up up Steph as a ball screener. All this other action triangulated through Draymond like it works really, really well. You're now going to ask him over the course of this series presumably to do a lot of heavy manufacturing against elite half court defense. And when the free throws are coming and you're getting those whistles, that works and when it doesn't it can get a little dicey. He's not like the strongest finisher inside all the time, especially when you have good length down there and athleticism down there. The mid range can come and go. The threes apparently are back because it is April and this is what Jimmy Butler does. But a lot is asked of him and we're going to see if he's up to the challenge. Historically, the answer is obviously yes. One of the great winners in modern NBA history delivers in exactly these moments. But getting older in age, we'll see kind of what the warriors have in store in terms of their half court offense and if he's, if he in particular is going to be up for that.

[Justin Varior]

All right, two more left on the board here. Lakers, Wolves. Probably the one I am anticipating the.

[Woz]

Most was who do you have Lakers in seven. I think Luka finally looks closer to the Luka that we know. And by the Luka that we know, I'm Talking about that 2021 series against the Clippers in the first round where this guy was unconscious against Paul Georgia, Kawhi Leonardo, who at that time reputationally were the most most feared perimeter defenders in the league. He made these fools look like YMCA players. And so, okay, first of all, as.

[Rob Mahoney]

A YMCA player myself, that's just uncalled for.

[Woz]

If he can get closer to that man, that's what I'll be looking for. And mainly what I'm looking for is can LeBron score in the paint? Can he get, you know, downhill versus his one on one? Can he beat up certain matchups with his post play? Can he get to the line? That'll be the key to me. If he's doing that, I think the Wolves are toast.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm also Lakers in seven. What are you thinking, Justin?

[Justin Varior]

Yeah, I'm seven now. I'm leaning six. I do think it's incumbent on the Wolves to match the juice that the Lakers are going to put out there. I do think the matchups aren't terrible. Although at a certain point who are you putting on reaves? And it's probably going to be Conley or someone like that maybe. Yeah, that's the sore spot. I do want to see divincenzo kind of flip back to Nick's era. Divincenzo for this series. I have Julius Randall down as kind of the biggest X factor in this one because you got him in no small part because you wanted more flex both with your books and, and definitely with your lineup. He's been pretty good of late. Since he came back from this groin injury, he's probably been the most contained, streamlined version that we've seen of Randall. And I think you're going to want to lean on him more than you probably should in any playoff series. Just because I don't know where else they're getting that from. They need a pop. Otherwise you're kind of banking on Anthony Edwards being meteoric every single game and he could do that, but I don't think you can count on that.

[Rob Mahoney]

It's tough. Again, this is a series that's going to stretch Anthony Edwards ability to read the floor, his playmaking to break down the defense as really a ball dominant player. And that's, that's kind of who he needs to be for this build of the Wolves to work. Overall, I think regardless of like what the lever to pull is, and maybe it's Randall in certain situations, maybe it's deploying ant in particular ways, maybe it's a lineup choice, I think the Wolves need to figure out their formula very, very quickly. I just think if you're playing against Luka or LeBron in a series, the clock is kind of ticking on you from the moment it starts. Those are guys who are going to take a minute to feel things out and the more you give them on tape and the more you give them to look at, the more they're going to break you down and pull what you're doing apart. And so if the Wolves can't come out and play with a ton of energy and build leads early in games early in the series, I just don't have a lot of faith in their ability to hang with LeBron and Luka on the back end because we've seen what their teams look like when it's just one of those guys. But you put both those processors together and you're trying to win a game seven against this team. I just don't see that working out for Minnesota.

[Justin Varior]

Obviously a big Gobert series as well because Lakers are going to play small. On one hand, I'm like, Rui has shot well from three for two straight seasons. He's probably going to shoot well again. On the other hand, I don't know if he's like the most reliable arm in that regard. And so like, can you steal more Go Bear minutes if he isn't doing that? I would say it's unlikely, but at the very least they have that option. If Gobert can stick on the floor and be a factor, I do think that swings things with the Wolves. I think we talk all about a lot of teams that have popped over the second half. Clippers first and foremost the Pacers we've talked about. I think we've almost got lost in the shuffle that the wolves have the fifth best net rating since January 1st. For a while they have played really well. So this is going to be a close one and frankly, I can't wait to watch it because this is going to probably be the most thrilling back to back one that I can see on the board.

[Rob Mahoney]

It is going to be close and I kind of expected going into the playoffs that I was going to pick the Wolves to make a bit of a run, but this is a tough matchup for them and it, it's. You're right to point out, like the who guards Austin Reeves question is kind of looming in a way that we wouldn't have expected two months ago. I think Gobert is going to hang in the series better than he gets credit for.

[Woz]

Be fine, man. I think the Rudy can't play and he can't switch. He can't play. It's been overblown for a few years now. Even in that Clipper series that everybody ragged on him for. I'm like, guys, it wasn't Rudy Gobert.

[Rob Mahoney]

Nope.

[Justin Varior]

But can he. Can he do it on the offensive end? It's the other thing. Can he make the advantage download offensively? That's because that's where he would want to pop there. That's. That's where you have.

[Woz]

He's not going to score against the Lakers. Small lineups probably not the problem.

[Rob Mahoney]

But I, I think he'll. I think he'll give enough overall to be a part of the series and to. To make some kind of impact on it. He's not going to be dead in the wall water. But two or three games in, are we going to say the same thing about Julius Randall? If he's a disaster out there and historically in the playoffs he's kind of been a disaster out there when he's been healthy enough to play. If Mike Conley doesn't have a place to hide or to guard, are we going to say that about him where it just feels untenable to have him out there for as many minutes as the Wolves might like? I'm not worried about Gobert in that respect. I'm more worried about some of the Wolves other guys.

[Justin Varior]

All right, last one. Nuggets versus Clippers. I'm going to go first. I have the Clippers in six.

[Woz]

Nuggets and seven.

[Rob Mahoney]

Nuggets and six.

[Justin Varior]

Okay. I'll be honest. I'm really worried for the Nuggets here because as we talked about earlier, I think there is a chance that Zoo can guard Jokic one on one. Not that he will take him out of the game or anything like that. Just the fact that you have freeing up all those other guys in order to hound the perimeter guards that the Nuggets have. The fact that you could throw on Dunn or Derek Jones Jr. Onto Murray. Like if Murray isn't healthy and he hasn't been for a couple of weeks now. He played two games, I believe over the past couple of weeks. Like it's going to be tough to score against this team. This is one of the best defensive teams in the league. And then it's just like where else are you going to. All of a sudden you're turning more to Russ than you want to. Is Aaron Gordon going to be healthy this entire series? The calf issue has plagued him this entire season. It's just like they're running out of options really quickly. And I appreciate what Jokic has done this season. One of the best seasons we have witnessed in our lifetime. I just, I think he needs help and I don't know where it's going to come from.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yeah, along those lines, I think Murray is the right kind of point to isolate here and he can't just be good. Like he has to be overwhelming for them to have the kind of success in this series that they're aiming to and to get past a really good Clippers team that now has just been really good for the majority of the season. Like they've just really put it together and they are really going to challenge the Nuggets. Denver on the other hand doesn't have depth, doesn't. They don't have a fail safe defense. They have Nikola Jokic and whatever else they can scrounge up. And a lot of that's going to have to come down to Jamal Murray being really, really, really good against excellent on ball pressure. So I, I am a Jamal Murray believer. I think that is going to happen. I think he's going to deliver in those moments in this series. I'm also my eye on Michael Porter, not just for the stakes related reasons we isolated earlier, but he had kind of a funny moment. I think it was like 2021 playoffs against Portland where like Norm Powell was his kryptonite. Very briefly it was like Michael Porter Jr. Couldn't figure out how to score against smaller defenders. It was like a thing he needed to overcome and figure out how to do and I think he kind of got there. But sometimes you've run into these series and you have to do it all over again because that's one of the Clippers questions is how do you match up with this team? Obviously Zoo is going to guard Jokic and Dunn presumably is going to chase Murray around. But what do you want to do with Kawhi? What do you want to do with Harden? What do you want to do with Norm? What do you want to do? Do you want to start Nicholas Batum? Like how do you want to manage the variety of options that you have at your disposal? And I think Norm's ability to be physical with some bigger players sometimes works in a. As a matchup advantage. To be honest with you, Jokic is.

[Woz]

Going to take the matchup personally. If the Clips think they're going to let Zube handle this guy on the island, he's going to put fouls on this joker like you wouldn't even believe, bro. Just.

[Justin Varior]

He doesn't foul though.

[Rob Mahoney]

He does.

[Justin Varior]

It's like one a game.

[Woz]

He's going to foul Nikola Jokic, I promise.

[Rob Mahoney]

They kind of can't handle it if he does foul. Right. Like, if you're getting into Batum and Ben Simmons minutes at the 5 really quickly, it's going to get. It's going to get weird for the Clippers.

[Woz]

That's another thing. Is Zubot going to play 40 minutes a game?

[Rob Mahoney]

He kind of has to.

[Justin Varior]

I mean, he's going to play probably 35 at least.

[Rob Mahoney]

Okay.

[Woz]

His condition is way better than he used to be, by the way. Totally, man. Back in boy, he used to be sucking wind immediately. League Zeke Naj back when Montre Harold was. Was the backup dude. Like, yeah, no. Yeah. The Nuggets backup situation is bad. It's still better than Ben Simmons.

[Rob Mahoney]

That's probably going to be mostly Aaron.

[Woz]

The playoffs, I mean, it's pretty comparable.

[Justin Varior]

And I wouldn't be surprised if the Clippers just do away with Simmons.

[Rob Mahoney]

Oh, I, I don't think Simmons should play in this series. But whichever, whichever team does survive. And I think this is going to be a bloodbath kind of series that takes a lot out of both of these teams. Congratulations. You get to play the Oklahoma City Thunder now. So it's. It's tough sledding all the way through, maybe.

[Justin Varior]

I wouldn't be surprised if Harden starts on Aaron Gordon just because of the size matchup, just because of how girthy he is. But then that just puts more pressure on Brown to do more against someone like Paulo and whatnot. Those are going to be fascinating. I can't wait to see how they match up. All right. I think that that's our playoff preview. That's an hour plus of content on top of our play in reaction. So this is a great field.

[Rob Mahoney]

Like, I know that. I know the east is a little bit. We're trying to figure out what's going on in the middle, but crap.

[Woz]

But this is west wise.

[Rob Mahoney]

I'm very excited.

[Woz]

Excellent. Excellent. So, Memphis, do your part, please, for the love of God. Oh my goodness.

[Rob Mahoney]

Spare us from the Kings.

[Justin Varior]

Jesus.

[Woz]

Christmas.

[Justin Varior]

Quick schedule announcement. We are going to switch up our record dates just a little bit for the playoffs, or at least the start of the playoffs. We're going to do Saturday night first and foremost. So we'll be probably publishing that late Saturday, early Sunday off of the usual Monday show.

[Rob Mahoney]

Yep.

[Justin Varior]

And then we'll be coming to you Wednesdays, like we do this podcast you're listening to right now. So practically the same thing. So Saturday nights, Wednesday nights, but we'll be in your feed Sunday morning, Thursday morning at the very least. So check us out then. We'll be back this weekend then for first round action. We will talk to you next time.