The Ringer NBA Show — “Title Pie at the All-Star Break | Group Chat”
Date: February 11, 2026
Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, J. Kyle Mann
Overview
This All-Star break episode of The Ringer NBA Show’s “Group Chat” tackles the state of title contention across both conferences. Using their recurring “Title Pie” exercise, Justin, Rob, and Kyle carve up the NBA's championship odds post-trade deadline, exploring how recent injuries, uneven team progress, and deadline deals affect the race. The discussion spans top favorites, teams with “multi-round gumption,” snubs and surprises, and the ever-present question: Who really deserves a piece of this year’s “title pie?”
All-Star Weekend Vibes & Tanking Fixation
- [01:44–07:02]
- The mood is unusually upbeat: Justin is excited to work the All-Star festivities in LA—though the crew generally agrees, “once you’ve been to one or two All-Star Weekends, you get jaded” (Justin, 02:45).
- Conversation pokes at Adam Silver’s recent struggles and the persistent “tanking” issue, with the team noting an outpouring of mailbag feedback, “People were very fired up about the tanking thing in a way that kind of spiked in an unusual way... There is a real appetite to push toward solving this.” (Kyle, 04:51)
- In-joking about “the Resistance” (against tanking) and the change to a new podcast release schedule post-All-Star.
Revisiting Title Pie: The Favorites
Setting the Stage
- [07:04–09:49]
- Justin: “I kind of discounted most teams in this race. I basically have a big two, and then everybody else.”
- Rob: “I kind of have a big one and then a lot of question marks...some of the teams that I was saying, maybe, hopefully...those crumbs are just accounted for at this point.”
- Pie percentages from the last exercise in November are lower now—contenders have fallen off, expectations are more concentrated.
Oklahoma City Thunder — The Clear #1?
- [09:49–13:41]
- All three hosts have the Thunder as #1 by a safe margin despite recent injuries (notably, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s abdominal strain and Jalen Williams’ lingering hand issue).
- Rob: “I just think that whatever questions you might have...don’t really pull them down from this top spot whatsoever. They might narrow their chances ever so slightly. But I went from 40%...to 35% here. Still, to me, the overwhelming favorite.” [10:05]
- Kyle: “I’m still at 40...but last 10, they’re five and five without Shea...Someone does need to step in.” [11:12–12:04]
- They acknowledge vulnerabilities but note the competition hasn’t stepped up, keeping OKC favored almost “by default.”
- Justin: “I don’t really feel super bullish on the Thunder because I feel like there are more sore spots ... but it’s really about the lack of competition ... empirically, it’s like the net rating, defensive rating–still so much of a foundation...” [12:32]
- Thunder title pie splits: Justin—30%, Rob—35%, Kyle—40%.
Notable Quote
- Justin: “You don’t even get a fucking morsel unless I can actually picture you hoisting that Lombardi—or the Larry O’Brien trophy. Almost said Lombardi. I guess the Super Bowl’s on the mind.” [09:29]
Denver Nuggets — #2 Despite Wobbles
- [13:41–18:54]
- Health is the main concern. “Every person on that roster seems to have a soft tissue injury of some kind...” (Rob, 13:41)
- Defensive struggles noted (“24th in defense overall,” Justin, 17:18), but if healthy, their championship DNA and offense make them “the counterpunch” to any West opponent.
- Kyle: “They’re going to need that continuity to click into place fast because they’re running out of runway...” [16:05]
- Pie splits: Rob—13%, Justin—24%, Kyle—20%.
Notable Quote
- Rob: “For as good as they’ve been...they’ll be even better when finally have their full allotment...But I kind of need to see it at this point.” [15:06]
Who Else Has “Multi-Round Gumption”?—The Next Tier
- [18:54–28:41]
- Only OKC and Denver are viewed as true multi-round contenders in the West.
- San Antonio Spurs are grudgingly included at #3, mostly due to Wemby’s supernova potential—after his 40-point, 25-min “haymaker” game vs. the Lakers.
- Justin: “Wemby is such a trump card...If he gets going, who’s to stop him?” [21:23]
- The hosts argue the Spurs’ inexperience and lack of elite perimeter shooting would be a likely playoff undoing, but can’t find better options.
Spurs’ Pie Slices
- Justin—12%, Rob—8%, Kyle—7%
- Rob: “I just wish they had like the one dead eye guy who felt a little more reliable as just a pure kick out option...” [26:54]
The East: Parity, Parity, Parity
- [33:14–40:31]
- Pistons are a slight tier above others, praised for physicality (“up the chimney vibes,” J. Kyle Mann, 33:34), but Rob sees the East as a probable toss-up: “I just don’t see much of a distinction between them as an actual basketball team and not as like a full scale rugby team...” [34:33]
- Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks—both imperfect, but credible, especially since adding Harden (Cavs) and Alvarado/Shamet (Knicks).
- Boston Celtics, “buy low” dark horse if Tatum returns at near full strength.
Pie Slices in the East
- Pistons: Justin—8%, Rob—12%, Kyle—7%
- Cavs: Justin—6%, Rob—6%, Kyle—6%
- Knicks: Justin—4%, Rob—8%, Kyle—4%
- Celtics: Justin—4%, Rob—6%
Notable Quote
- Rob: “Give me the team that gives a shit over the ones who are jogging through the regular season any day...” [33:14]
- Justin: “If anything, I’m worried about guys like Duncan Robinson and Kevin Herder getting played off the floor when the defense starts to ratchet up...” [43:55]
The Rest of the West: Wolves, Rockets, and the End of the Pie
- [49:21–63:10]
- Minnesota Timberwolves considered the “last real West dark horse.”
- Rob: “They’ve survived multiple playoff rounds on consecutive occasions...” [49:56]
- Concerns over internal chemistry and Julius Randle’s erratic impact (“what planet are you on?”, Rob, 49:56) but playoff experience and two-way play keeps them above Houston.
- Houston Rockets: Defense and KD’s shot-making keep them competitive, but “everything didn’t have to be so difficult...” (Rob, 57:10) and injuries to VanVleet/Adams, along with a thin rotation and rigid coaching approach, have sunk offensive effectiveness.
- Minnesota Timberwolves considered the “last real West dark horse.”
Notable Quote
- J. Kyle Mann (on Houston): “This is like the Olympics of tough shot making that [KD] is being asked to do on a consistent basis.” [59:14]
Wild Cards, Snubs, and “Morsels”
- [72:12–75:34]
- Rob awards Philly a “1% crumb” based on “Joel [Embiid] being too good, too dominant, frankly.” [72:58]
- Lakers, Raptors, Heat, Magic: Off the board entirely.
- Fun and banter over literal and figurative “crumbs” of the title pie, with the Charlotte Hornets getting only a “pie crust chip” (Rob, 55:18).
Harden & Legacy, and Cavs/Celtics Prospects
- Extended sidebar—What if James Harden wins one this year? Is it a legacy-rescuing moment (“Would that be the biggest legacy rehabilitation ever if Harden somehow orchestrated that?” — Kyle, 68:00), or not quite enough to erase playoff pasts? The consensus: it would matter, but over time, the narrative leans softer. [69:35–71:19]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
On Title Hopefuls
- Kyle: “Multi round gumption. I’m going to trademark that right now.” [19:03]
- Justin: “If there’s one thing people love more than fake trades and photoshopping players into Lakers jerseys, it is coming up with solutions to fix tanking...” [05:23]
On Team Chemistry (Pistons Fight Night)
- Rob: “Give me the team that gives a shit over the ones who are, like, jogging through the regular season any day of the week. Are you kidding me?” [33:14]
- Justin: “This is the answer to all the problems we’re talking about tanking. Let’s just fight, everybody.” [29:42]
On The Dark Horses’ (Spurs) Youth
- Justin: “Maybe Wemby just overcomes all of that. I think that really is the case for them for and against, where it’s like he could just be the best player in the world and those guys typically dictate playoff series...” [24:44]
- Rob: “I think the shooting is a huge part…they have a lot of good shooters or potentially good shooters, but not a lot of great ones…” [25:42]
On Harden
- Rob: “Obviously he has this outsized reputation as a playoff choker...but you know what he does do? He gets you to the biggest games.” [68:16]
Pie Humor and Miscellany
- Pie crumb banter and baking metaphors thread through the episode. (“That’s the Hornets. The little leftover piece of dough for the pie crust...That’s the Hornets.” — Rob, 55:18)
- The crew debates the best strategy for war, vis-à-vis NBA offense—and whether Justin is “not fit to lead” a post-apocalyptic survival group due to lacking basic blockade tactics. [58:33]
Approximate Title Pie Breakdown (Consensus Ranges)
| Team | Justin | Rob | Kyle | |------------------|--------|------|------| | Thunder | 30% | 35% | 40% | | Nuggets | 24% | 13% | 20% | | Spurs | 12% | 8% | 7% | | Pistons | 8% | 12% | 7% | | Cavs | 6% | 6% | 6% | | Knicks | 4% | 8% | 4% | | Celtics | 4% | 6% | (not specified)| | Wolves/Rockets | fractional | small | small | | Philly | 0% | 1% | 0% |
Takeaway
The NBA’s 2025–26 title chase is as wide open—yet top heavy—as ever. OKC and Denver still reign, but both show enough cracks, health scares, or inconsistency to keep the pie slices closer together. In the East, a muddle of flawed but feisty squads jockeys for position, hoping for a hot streak or an injury break. And as always, the Group Chat keeps it honest, irreverent, and just a little bit obsessed with crumbs and crusts.
Listen for:
- The hosts’ evolving stance on who can actually win—not just in percentages, but in “gumption.”
- Deep dives into how deadline deals (Harden!) re-shaped the East.
- Spirited, signature Ringer banter and off-topic gems: fighting, pie-baking, and survival strategy.
End of Summary.