The Ringer NBA Show — "Title Pie at the Quarter Mark | Group Chat"

Hosts: Justin Verrier (A), Rob Mahoney (C), J. Kyle Mann (B)
Date: December 1, 2025

Episode Overview

This quarter-mark edition of “Group Chat” reunites Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and J. Kyle Mann for a fan-favorite bit: Title Pie. The trio breaks down the NBA championship race by dividing 100% “pie” into proportions reflecting each team’s chances to win the title, using their signature blend of analytic rigor, friendly banter, and off-topic amusements. This episode, landing just past Thanksgiving and after a quarter season’s worth of games, offers an early but insightful take on the rising contenders and the teams facing serious questions for the rest of the year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introducing "Title Pie" (08:13 – 11:13)

• Title Pie rules: Each host allocates portions of a figurative 100% pie to teams they believe have a credible chance to win the NBA title, arguing for their numbers and collaboratively building a final breakdown.
• Approach: Hosts debate how many teams deserve a slice, the interplay between regular-season performance and playoff viability, and the challenge of weighting conventional favorites versus growth stocks.

Notable Quote

“This is more of a par-baking sort of experience. But we're getting it ready, we're getting our crust settled… it’s the perfect way to come out of Thanksgiving pie season.” – Rob Mahoney (08:13)

2. The Top Contenders: Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets

Thunder

• Why so high? Unanimous favorite, pulling the largest slice in show history (Justin: 35%, Rob: 40%, Kyle: 40%). Their depth, defense (“having multiple Jrue Holidays”), and steady dominance are compared to historic juggernauts.
• Playoff Question: Can they mitigate size disadvantages? Are they actually vulnerable to a healthy Nuggets or Rockets front line?
• X-factors: Relentless defense, MVP-level Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, next-man-up culture.

Key Quotes:

"I think it's the biggest number that I have given to any team in the history of us doing title pie. Pie history. We're making pie history today. And what better team to make it with than the Oklahoma City Thunder?”
– Rob Mahoney (11:30)

“When I think about the Thunder, I can't think of another team that has had an MVP level player on it where... it's not the thing that my basketball mind is drawn to first. It's the depth, it’s the continuity, it's the shell, it's the defense..."
– J. Kyle Mann (14:47)

Nuggets

• Still confident? Recent injuries (Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun) are a worry, and past experience matters. Depth concerns lurk, but Jokic is the “best floor-raiser of all time” and Aaron Gordon gets praised as the ultimate role player.
• Matchup edge: Have the “trump card” against OKC if healthy, especially the Gordon/Chet dynamic.
• Pie Slices: Justin: 23%, Rob: 16%, Kyle: 20%.

Key Quote:

"Gordon is just the perfect role player, not just for Jokic, but practically every team because he marries the size and now has the shooting to complement that in a way that I can't think of another single player."
– Justin Verrier (28:11)

Rockets

• Big, physical, and deeply improved: Offensive rebounding, Reed Shepherd’s emergence, and KD’s presence drive optimism.
• Remaining doubts: Perimeter defense against versatile wings; need for continued growth and perhaps a wing stopper.
• Pie Slices: Justin: 18%, Rob: 14%, Kyle: 10%.

Quote:

“Their rotation… now, all of a sudden, they just look really complete, really well-rounded, certainly physically formidable… even just on an execution level, like, they're just a tough team to reckon with.”
– Rob Mahoney (32:10)

3. Eastern Conference View: Knicks, Pistons, Cavs

Knicks:

• Emerging favorite in the East: Gets the next-largest east allocation (6–8%). Torchbearers for experience and playoff-tested metal; Josh Hart’s resurgence highlighted, despite ongoing uncertainty over Mitchell Robinson’s health.
• Strengths: Multiple offensive pressure points; flexibility; “the most talented team in the East” (36:10).

Pistons:

• Cautious optimism: Record is impressive (16–4), but some doubt about title readiness in Year 1 of true contention. Could surge with a midseason move, but skepticism persists.
• Pie Slices: Rob: 7%, Justin: 3%, Kyle: 1%.

Cavs:

• Injuries stalling progress: Many still “grandfather in” the Cavs out of respect for their ceiling when healthy, but both fit and growth (especially Evan Mobley's offensive jump) have disappointed to date.

Quotes:

“I'm just a little cold still [on the Wolves], especially in comparison to some of these other teams where you see the ball pinging between Lebron James, Luka and Reeves, it's like, yeah, the defense is going to be a problem, but like, holy shit.”
– Justin Verrier (61:40)
(Used here for contrast with the Eastern teams’ struggles.)

4. The “Lesser West Tier”: Lakers, Wolves, Warriors, Spurs

Lakers & Wolves

• Perennial respect: Lakers get a surprisingly generous slice (Justin: 5%, Rob: 4%, Kyle: 6%), as do the Wolves, mainly out of “muscle memory” and the belief that core talent could click.
• Lakers: Offensive firepower off the charts, but defensive woes persist; could use a bench/wing upgrade.
• Wolves: Bench and backup ballhandler needs glaring, but top-level talent (especially Ant’s clutch ability) keeps hope alive.

Warriors

• Legacy respect only: Only a sliver (Justin/Kyle: 1%, Rob: 0%). Steph Curry remains the X-factor, but supporting cast is uninspiring and internal drama is mounting.

Spurs

• Theoretical upside: Guessed at 1–2%, mainly out of fear for a Wemby leap, but youth and inexperience are major limiting factors.

Notable Quote:

"That's not a championship team, even though it has many championship players and coaches involved… I gave the Spurs 0.5% of a piece of pie."
– Rob Mahoney (55:03)

5. True Dark Horses & Peripheral Slices: Raptors, Heat, Magic, Others (73:03+)

• Raptors get a tongue-in-cheek 2% (Rob), for theoretical “east randomness.”
• Magic and Heat: Both get slivers (0.5–1%) out of deference to their defensive (Magic) or historical (Heat) potential.
• Discussion: Debate over which east team could “accidentally” win rounds on defense or balance, even if unlikely to truly threaten the West’s elite.

Standout Moment:

"The Raptors deserve more acknowledgement for their play to this point … than a team like Golden State does."
– Rob Mahoney (75:04)

Final Collaborative Title Pie Breakdown (77:38)

| Team | Title Pie % | |--------------------|--------------------| | Oklahoma City Thunder | 38% | | Denver Nuggets | 20% | | Houston Rockets | 14% | | New York Knicks | 6% | | Detroit Pistons | 4% | | Cleveland Cavaliers | 4% | | Los Angeles Lakers | 5% | | Minnesota Timberwolves | 4% | | San Antonio Spurs | 1% | | Golden State Warriors | 1% | | Miami Heat | 1% | | Orlando Magic | 1% | | Toronto Raptors | 1% |

Top 3 West (Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets): 72%
Combined Top 3 Theme: “If we get to June and it’s anyone but them, we will probably need to eat some crow.” (Rob, 79:30)

Key Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Thunder’s depth:
  “I saw someone refer to their depth of wings as like having multiple Jrue Holidays just all up and down the roster.” – Justin Verrier (15:40)

• On Nikola Jokic’s rare value:
  "Is he the best...floor-raising player of all time?" – J. Kyle Mann (24:09)

• Aaron Gordon praise:
  “Oh, he's a fucking winner, like through and through… There just aren't many supporting players in the league who can do the breadth of all of that stuff.” – Rob Mahoney (28:28)

• On the East/West gap:
  "I mean, we've already gone through 70% of the title going to the west at this point. It's just like one of these teams has to get to the finals, and then something could happen and they could win." – Rob Mahoney (35:20)

• On Orlando’s chances:
  "If they're able to kind of composite what's been driving them over the last couple weeks with the best version of Paolo, that's a team that could be really competitive in the East." – Rob Mahoney (80:23)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Start of Pie Exercise/Explanation: 08:13
• Pie History & First Picks: 11:09 – 12:53
• Thunder Dissection: 11:13 – 17:25
• Nuggets & Rockets Discussion: 17:25 – 34:11
• Eastern Conference Tiers Begin: 35:06
• Knicks, Pistons, Cavs Arguments: 36:10 – 45:57
• Lesser West Tier (Lakers, Wolves, Warriors, Spurs): 54:20 – 69:05
• Final Pie Readout: 77:38 – 78:37
• Dark Horse Talk: 80:00 – 82:00 (end)

Tone & Style

The episode drips with the trio’s characteristic quick wit, side tangents (Thanksgiving pie, movie theater experiences, school “parenthood” lessons), and a mix of reverence and irreverence toward NBA traditions and current narratives. It’s as much a conversation among extremely online basketball nerds as it is a serious analysis session, but the hoops IQ always emerges above the banter.

Summary Takeaway

The hosts see the NBA title picture at the quarter mark as a three-horse Western race (Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets), with New York and Detroit leading a much shakier Eastern field. Injuries, deadline moves, and young star ascents are the main factors that could disrupt the established order, but the trio confidently predicts a Western champion barring major surprises.

For listeners skipping the banter and ads, this episode serves as a sharp and detailed check-in on the league’s contenders, blending statistical rigor, matchup analysis, and informed speculation with pure basketball fandom.

End summary.