The Rock Fight: 10 Predictions for 2026 + Timberland’s No Good Very Bad Boot

Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Colin True
Guests: Owen Comerford, Producer Dave
Podcast: The Rock Fight: Outdoor Industry & Adventure Sports Commentary

Episode Overview

Kicking off the year, The Rock Fight convenes to offer a bold, unvarnished look at where the outdoor industry is heading in 2026. Owen Comerford brings his "10 Predictions for 2026" to the table, with Colin True and Producer Dave serving up agreement, disagreement, and their signature banter. The team digs deep into industry trends, retail shakeups, product quality controversies (hello, Timberland), and the sometimes messy realities facing outdoor enthusiasts. If you’re sick of outdoor industry echo chambers, this episode’s for you: it’s blunt, nerdy, funny, and bracingly real.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

[01:04] - Kickoff & Setting the Scene

• Colin welcomes Owen and Dave, joking about rough holiday recoveries and industry sponsorship ironies.
• Owen acknowledges his famously "sunshine and happiness" outlook amid industry stress.
• The episode will break down Owen’s 10 LinkedIn-published predictions for the coming year.

Owen’s 10 Predictions for the Outdoor Industry in 2026

1. Outdoor Brands Get Off to a Slow Start in 2026

[03:31 - 06:39]

• Owen predicts flat or negative comps in H1, as conservative preseason retailer orders and higher consumer prices collide with financial stress.
• Owen: “Preseasons being down kind of in the 5 to 10% or more range…throw your mind back to June, July—tariff turmoil. Retailers were like, I don’t know what we’re going to order…We just know that it’s going to be less.” (04:38)
• Dave offers a rare optimistic note: luxury and youth markets survive downturns, and the outdoor industry seems to straddle both.
• Consensus: Headwinds abound, stability would be welcome, and trail running might just save the industry from the coming AI bubble.

2. Tariffs See a Rollback

[07:24 - 11:49]

• Owen sees rollback/reconstitution after a Supreme Court decision and mounting consumer backlash to inflation.
• Owen: “Wall street firms are buying rights to tariff refund claims right now…there's a market in that.” (07:55)
• Dave and Colin riff on policy by tweet and the possibility of reclassifying products to skirt rules, with Owen listing apparel and footwear as tariff relief candidates. (11:23)
• Dave jokes: "Maybe they’ll change the classification to tropical fruit!" (11:43)

3. Gear-As-A-Service Subscription Model Launches

[11:49 - 17:38]

• Owen: Major retailer launches monthly gear rental subscriptions (e.g., REI or Trek stores). Sticky business model for attracting Gen Z/Millennials; possible higher member discounts.
• Owen: “You could get a kayak…use it for the weekend, bring it back, get something else…super sticky.” (12:13)
• Dave: “If you do have a gear subscription service for ultralight, you could probably call that a 'gas light.'” (15:06)
• Broad agreement it’ll happen, but profitability and generational adoption are unclear.

4. PFAS Rainwear Gray Market Emerges

[17:55 - 20:24]

• Enthusiasts distrust C0DWR (PFA-free) rainwear, stocking up on "the good stuff" pre-ban.
• Owen: “Some of the editors are demanding—no longer be called DWR, should be called NDWR for non-durable water repellency.” (18:21)
• The hosts joke about hoarding PFAS rainwear like lightbulbs and red dye #5. (20:03)
• Colin: “Are you loading up on the old good stuff, the unregulated PFAS?”

5. Dick’s Sporting Goods Will Close 10%+ Foot Locker Locations

[20:25 - 24:24]

• Following VF’s acquisition, 200-400+ Foot Locker stores (especially in B/C malls) will close due to poor ROI.
• Owen’s numbers come from recent write-downs and average lease figures.
• Discussion that most outdoor brands lack a coherent Foot Locker strategy but need one now; Foot Locker’s footwear volume is double Dick’s.

6. REI Makes Major Changes to Its Membership Dividend

[25:45 - 34:19]

• Owen predicts REI will cut dividend percent on non-REI products (from 10% to 5%) but add new outside-company member perks.
• Colin: “What’s the backlash here? …Isn’t it kitchen sink time for these guys?”
• Owen: “There will be a highly public backlash…but will it actually hurt their sales? No.”
• Discussion: The vast REI membership often isn’t even aware of their dividend, so loud online backlash won’t mean much.
• Dave: “This is the way forward…build[ing] experience into their business model, more than offering just product.”

7. Hoka’s Growth Flattens Out in 2025

[34:19 - 39:21]

• US HOKA sales have plateaued/declined; international growth can’t prop them up much longer.
• Dave jokes HOKA’s next move is "stack-height supremacy": “Next year we’re going to see the first 110mm heel stack…about 44 slices of cheese.”
• All agree HOKA must expand their design language and diversify beyond max-cushion kicks; apparel and accessories predicted.

8. Used Gear Moves to Main Product Page

[40:39 - 44:45]

• Owen: Cites Patagonia’s “Worn Wear” tab as a model; expects wider adoption.
• Highlights benefit to brand, environment, and consumers—though used gear inventory is still low.
• Dave: “I want this to happen…we need brands to prioritize this in their messaging, not just create a used bin.”
• Colin: “Isn’t this just a delay before third-party specialists take over used gear entirely?”

9. Peak Trail Running Culture

[45:01 - 48:39]

• Trail running becomes mainstream—at least in looks (Salomon XT6 everywhere), but not as an activity.
• Owen: “[XT6 is] the shoe on Manhattan’s streets…not about people actually trail running, but wanting to look as if they are.”
• Colin counters: trend will dominate footwear and certain apparel, but won’t break through as a cultural “mainstream sport” outside core channels.
• Dave: “Hair’s getting longer, beards are getting bushier. Back-to-the-land movement led by the trail runners. I’m all for it.”

10. AI Becomes Your Outdoor Gear Buddy

[48:42 - 54:14]

• Owen: Major retailers will launch AI personas—think a virtual “green vest”—to customize gear advice, trip lists, etc.
• Reality: Much of this is happening quietly already, but a broader, branded rollout will be controversial.
• Colin: Industry is “still pretty anti-AI,” especially in core communities.
• Dave: The true value will come from domain-specific AI models (e.g., guide/trip expertise), not just general chatbots.
• Dave: “Large language models aren’t going to replace lawyers. Law-specific language models will…Same in outdoor.”

The Timberland "No Good Very Bad Boot" Segment

[56:10 - 64:46]

[57:58] Timberland’s Luxury Boot Scandal

• Colin cites Rose Anvil’s teardown of the Timberland “Luxe Waterproof” boot—marketed as heritage quality at $380, but in reality “a massive piece of shit,” filled with cheap materials and fake craftsmanship.
  • Colin: “That on its own sucks…But the bigger issue…this is kind of the modern outdoor industry. We have 50 years of building an industry based on quality and innovation, and we trust these brands…That trust can be exploited...” (56:10)
• Owen and Dave decry the move as value-engineering gone wrong, undermining trust and damaging the entire industry.
  • Owen: “No, this thing is a piece of shit that they actively tried to make look like it was a heritage piece…to fool the customer…” (58:10)
  • Dave: “No designer is going in there willingly making those choices…They clearly built this to hit a margin, point blank.” (61:08)
  • Danner’s high-quality Bull Run boot cited as a fair-priced, US-made counter-example.
• Industry-wide implications: The Timberland gaffe gives ammo to folks who argue the outdoor business has lost its soul—hurting credible brands and honest innovation.
  • Owen: "You should actually throw margin out the window…say, ‘No, we want to make the best Timberland that’s ever been made…’"
• Callout to Timberland insiders: “Myrockfightmail.com—reach out and tell us how this happened.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Owen, on rainwear: “Editors are demanding…it no longer be called DWR, it should be NDWR: non-durable water repellency.” [18:21]
• Dave, on HOKA’s future: “Next year, we’re going to see…possibly the first 110 millimeter heel stack…about 44 slices of cheese.” [36:27]
• Colin, on REI changes: “At this point, it's kind of kitchen sink time for these guys. Are you going to piss off some people? Probably, but you need to do something here.” [29:49]
• Colin, on Timberland: “What the actual fuck, Timberland?” [56:10]
• Owen, on industry value engineering: “This is the kind of shit that just gives these kinds of companies a bad name. It does. It totally validates the haters.” [58:55]

Memorable Moments & Humor

• “I want my own shit. Keep your hands off my shit.” – Colin, on gear sharing culture. [17:35]
• "Maybe they’ll change the classification [of apparel] to tropical fruit!" – Dave, on tariff gymnastics. [11:43]
• Trail running in mainstream media? Only if there’s “an SEC tailgate going on on that trail.” – Dave [47:47]
• AI-generated song about your outdoor buddy, replete with silicone soul (by Chris D) [54:39]

Segment Timestamps

• 01:04 – Show intro, panel banter, predictions setup
• 03:31 – Prediction 1: Slow start for brands
• 07:24 – Prediction 2: Tariffs to be rolled back
• 11:49 – Prediction 3: Gear subscription model
• 17:55 – Prediction 4: PFAS rainwear hoarding
• 20:25 – Prediction 5: Dick’s/Foot Locker closures
• 25:45 – Prediction 6: REI membership shake-up
• 34:19 – Prediction 7: HOKA growth flattens
• 40:39 – Prediction 8: Used gear promoted
• 45:01 – Prediction 9: Trail running gets mainstream
• 48:42 – Prediction 10: AI becomes outdoor buddy
• 56:10 – Timberland boot scandal and industry trust

Final Thoughts

The episode offers a fiercely candid, sometimes irreverent, but always insightful look at the coming year in outdoor industry. From financial pressures to cultural shifts and the impact of technology, The Rock Fight team pulls no punches—especially when brands lose sight of the values that built the category. If you want hot takes, deep dives, jokes, and the inside baseball of outdoor biz, this is the episode to catch.

Want to sound off on these predictions? Watch for Rock Fight’s survey next week, or email the team at myrockfightmail.com.