The Rock Fight Podcast

Episode Title: 5 Predictions For The Running Event, Dick's Assimilates Foot Locker & Is Resale Profitable?
Air Date: December 1, 2025
Host(s): Colin True, Producer Dave, Owen Comerford, Shantae Salibair ("Gear Abbey")
Episode Length: ~69 minutes

Main Theme / Purpose

In this episode, the Rock Fight crew cuts through the usual outdoor industry noise with candid commentary and debate. The team tackles three major topics: the profitability of the outdoor gear resale market, the business shake-up following Dick’s Sporting Goods’ purchase of Foot Locker, and makes lively, insightful predictions for the upcoming Running Event trade show (TRE) and its Switchback segment. The episode wraps with a thoughtful industry interview with Nathan Dopp, CEO of Fjällräven Americas.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Outdoor Gear Resale: Hype vs. Profitability

Timestamps: 03:37 – 09:05

• Listener Becky (from Tersys Solutions) writes in to challenge a previous claim that gear resale isn’t profitable.
• Owen's breakdown:
  • Resale is labor-intensive, each used item is unique (inspect, list, ship individually vs. new goods shipped in lots).
  • True profitability for large, public resale players (e.g., ThredUp, The RealReal) is elusive; accounting tweaks may appear to show profitability.
  • Brands may ‘hide’ true costs by classifying credits/gift cards as marketing, zeroing out inventory, etc.
  • Partnering with platform-agnostic players (e.g., Tersys’ partnership with GearTrade; Cotopaxi + ThredUp) is seen as the real, scalable step to move the market.
• Industry transition:
  • Cross-brand, incentive-driven programs are needed, not just ‘walled garden’ brand-only resale.
  • The sector is in early days; skepticism and realism are warranted.

Quote:

"It is still... tough to make money if you look at all the costs that go into it." – Owen (04:55)

2. Dick's Acquisition of Foot Locker: Brutal Business, Rapid Overhaul

Timestamps: 09:43 – 18:54

• News Recap: Dick’s Sporting Goods, post-acquisition of Foot Locker, plans to write down $500-750 million in assets and closes a significant number of stores.
• Owen’s Financial Insight:
  • Much of the write-down is inventory—Foot Locker’s stock was “wrong product, merchandised poorly, in bad locations.”
  • Ed Stack (Dick’s Chairman) is “brutally direct” on fixing problems, prefers quick action (major clearances, then liquidation for leftovers).
  • Likely result: mass liquidation, deep discounts through Dick’s own channels (e.g., “Going, Going, Gone”), potential use of “jobbers” (liquidators).
  • Impact: May close as many as 250–500 stores (out of ~2,300).
• Strategic Direction:
  • Foot Locker to re-establish premium ‘sneakerhead’ credibility, less of a clearance channel.
  • Brands affected, but short-term pain could create future open-to-buy opportunities.

Quotes:

"In short, it was a shit show... he used the term 'retail 101' when talking about this." – Owen (12:02)
"They're going to put a ton of stuff on sale... fish while the fish are biting." – Owen (13:15)

3. Running Event & Switchback: Preview and Predictions

Timestamps: 22:15 – 45:39

Show Background

• TRE (The Running Event) launched in 2006, now the top run & outdoor specialty retail trade show in North America.
• ‘Switchback’ is the newer outdoor-focused add-on, aiming to bridge running and outdoor retail.

Panel Favorites & Observations

• Shantae (Gear Abbey):

  • First time attending; intrigued to experience the ‘run nerd’ scene and how outdoors is integrated.
  • Wonders if “outdoor” feels like a “mistress” to running, not the main focus.

  “Is it going to be a seamless integration… ombre effect of hardcore running, trail running, then Clif bars and body glide?” (24:00)

  • Seeks innovations and practical gear for the everyday (not elite) runner.

• Dave:

  • TRE brings back the buzz of classic outdoor retailer shows—energy, big “booth-opolises,” trade vibes.
  • Wonders about the “road vs. trail” rivalry and how it’s represented.

• Owen:

  • TRE is a rare thriving national industry show; wants to discover its secret sauce.
  • Interested in emerging brands and whether Switchback feels vibrant or overshadowed.

• Colin:

  • Focused on whether the business/enthusiasm model of TRE is replicable in pure outdoor shows.

Some Key Trade Show Mechanisms

• Education Day:

  • Rooted in retailer education; all agree it needs to become more solutions-oriented, not just “panels and platitudes.”
  • It works well when tied to a strong industry org (here, the Running Industry Association).

• Awards Dinner:

  • Closing awards show keeps attendance strong through the end; effective “bookend” event strategy.

“The last day is always just a ghost town… having a real event at the end makes a ton of sense.” – Owen (34:20)

4. Wild Predictions for the Running Event (and beyond!)

Timestamps: 37:08 – 44:52

Shantae’s Prediction:

• Trail running will dominate conversations and brand presence—even non-core trail brands will flex trail cred.

  “One in every five conversations is going to be about how trail running is the new road running.” (37:30)

Dave’s Predictions:

• The “sock wall” will be hyper-competitive and a zone of drama.
• Possible name change for the show (“Running Daze”) to riff on the recent Outside Days festival renaming.
• At least one Switchback exhibitor will really up the booth game (“booth envy is real”).

Owen’s Prediction:

• Diversified (show organizer) will announce a major industry awards push for Switchback 2026, following the successful TRE model.

Colin’s Prediction:

• “Outdoor run posers”—at least three outdoor brands will feel awkwardly out of place trying to act ‘running.’
  • Speculates on likely brand culprits (Prana, Sea to Summit, Berghaus).
• Mega-prediction: This will be the LAST Switchback at the Running Event—look for Switchback to fully spin out, running and outdoor to separate again.

5. Fjällräven Interview: Industry Outlook, Trade Shows, and Brand Strategy

Timestamps: 47:39 – 67:12

Guests: Nathan Dopp (CEO, Fjällräven Americas; VP, Fenix Outdoor)

Industry Confidence for 2026

• Fjällräven’s stability comes from being a long-term oriented, non-PE owned company; they can make decisions for the long haul.
• Tariffs: Planning for price uncertainty but have moved much production out of China over past 6–7 years.
• The biggest challenge is uncertainty (e.g., tariff policy can change rapidly).

Quote:

"We get to make really... thoughtful decisions around what we're going to do and what we're going to do next." – Nathan (48:51)

Retail & Channel Strategy

• Fjällräven is bullish on brick-and-mortar, especially specialty retail, rather than a heavy e-commerce discounting model.
• Online retail is chosen carefully, focused on maintaining brand value (avoiding rampant discounting like in European markets).
• Supply chains built for carryover classics, not chasing seasonal trends; enables agility with minimal reinvention.

On Fenix Outdoor as Brand Acquirer

• Devold (heritage wool brand) acquisition – aim for quality, synergy with existing brands, not aggressive roll-ups.
• New brands only added if they fit heritage and expertise focus.

Trade Shows & Brand Identity

• Nathan still loves “the big old days” of epic trade show booths, but efficiency is now king.
• Will support category-leading shows (GOA, possibly Switchback), but OR (Outdoor Retailer) only if a “serious momentum shift” occurs.
• Retailers now must triage attendance, so brands must “meet them where they are”—including regional shows, in-store visits, etc.

Quotes:

"We're a product driven company. A lot of the products popular today are 30 and 40-year-old styles." – Nathan (62:37)
"If we can't make a real [Fjällräven version], then we shouldn't do it.” – Owen’s praise at 66:07

6. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the industry’s endless optimism:
  “We don’t want to embrace any positive news early. We’ve had the carpet pulled out from under us too often.” – Panel (09:20)
• On Foot Locker’s legacy inventory:
  “So, I mean, Ed Stack used the term ‘jobber’ on the call, which is like ho, woof." – Owen (13:06)
• On the energy of the running event:
  "There is such an energy of people doing business and being there. The promotional side is fully on display." – Dave (25:55)
• On education days at trade shows:
  "Let's get into the solutions part of it now guys, we know what the problems are." – Shantae (32:44)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Resale marketplace debate: 03:37 – 09:05
• Dick’s / Foot Locker shake-up: 09:43 – 18:54
• Predictions & preview of TRE / Switchback: 22:15 – 45:39
• Fjällräven / Nathan Dopp interview: 47:39 – 67:12

Tone & Language

The episode is lively, irreverent, unfiltered, and full of in-jokes and industry shade. The hosts never take themselves too seriously but remain thoughtful, critical, and deeply versed in outdoor and retail business realities. “Gear Abbey” Shantae adds warmth and a practical consumer perspective. Discussion is often peppered with playful banter and campfire humor.

Conclusion

This episode of The Rock Fight delivers sharp, honest outdoor industry commentary: challenging the rosy narratives around resale, digging into the real-world retail carnage as Dick’s overhauls Foot Locker, and offering predictions (with tongue firmly in cheek) for the business and culture at North America’s top running trade show. The Fjällräven interview offers a rare, relatively unguarded look at how a leading brand navigates constant change, uncertainty, and strategic growth in the outdoor market.

For anyone interested in the nuts and bolts of outdoor retail, trade show evolution, and where culture and commerce intersect in the wilds of the running and outdoor world, this episode is essential listening.