The Rock Fight: Outdoor Industry & Adventure Sports Commentary

Episode: Is Running Tariff Proof? + Under Armour Could Use A Little More 'Grrrr'
Date: August 18, 2025
Host: Colin True
Guests: Owen Comerford (Industry Insider/Consigliere), Dave (“Producer Dave”/Brand/Creative Expert)

Episode Overview

This Rock Fight episode dives into the current state of running brands amid tariff fears, analyzes why "On Running" is crushing it, and wonders if running is uniquely positioned to weather economic storms in the outdoor industry. The hosts also weigh in on the wild success of Vuori (and when/if they’ll move into footwear), and dissect Under Armour’s unclear future—suggesting it’s time for them to reclaim their “grr” branding mojo. Expect honest, playful debate on industry trends, brand blunders, and the ever-present tension between authenticity, fashion, and commerce within outdoor, running, and activewear segments.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Resilience of Running Brands Amid Tariffs (05:31–21:44)

• On Running’s Tariff Immunity (06:51–10:30)

  • Growth: On Running's Q2 sales are up 32% year-over-year; D2C sales especially strong (+40%).
  • Tariffs: CEO/CFO Martin Hoffmann: “We have not even spoken to retail or factory partners about mitigation efforts. We haven’t needed to.” (06:46)
  • Analysis: Owen and Colin speculate this is due to demand hugely outstripping supply, especially in D2C channels, with no price sensitivity among buyers. They note that On, despite its European roots, has America as its core market—a rarity.
  • Distinctive Success: On benefits from both Nike’s retreat from wholesale and its unique “visual tech” (the sole), appealing to younger buyers who don't want to wear “their parent's Nikes.”
  • Marketing: Landing Zendaya as a brand ambassador gives On a cultural edge, eschewing the fallback of second-tier athlete endorsements.
    • Owen: “Getting Zendaya...not just the tired 'which athlete is left?' playbook... just really break the playbook for athletic brands.” (09:07–09:45)

• Broader Running Segment Strength (15:13–18:57)

  • Altra, Saucony, Hoka, and Brooks all report major growth, with Brooks hitting all-time quarterly revenue.
  • Owen points to the rise of “super shoes”—$300+ running shoes—as raising the price anchor and boosting margins/profitability, making running as a category unusually resilient to price shocks like tariffs.
    • Owen: “No way that would ever happen... but people are out there buying super shoes to run their half marathon or 5K. It’s a little insane... but it’s changed the price anchor.” (16:49–17:38)

• Fashion, Trend, and Outdoor Connection

  • The crew notes that running brands' current dominance is as much about fashion/trend as athletic utility (e.g. hiking boots as streetwear in prior decades).
  • Owen wonders if the fashion trend of running might morph toward “trail running” aesthetics, even if actual trail running doesn’t surge.

2. The Power and Peril of Brand Strategy: On, Vuori, and Merrell (21:44–35:59)

• Vuori’s Meteoric Rise & Specialty Retail Tensions (28:58–35:59)

  • Vuori, at age 10, just opened its 100th store—1 year ahead of schedule—with aggressive international growth.
  • Ongoing industry narrative: Specialty/outdoor insiders gatekeep, doubting Vuori's “outdoor” credentials. However, Vuori’s selective distribution strategy (e.g. refusing online sales through retailers) echoes Lululemon more than Nike.
    • Owen: “They were extremely selective...did not allow anyone to sell their brand online...It makes total sense if you can start with a clean slate.” (31:34–33:07)
  • Risks ahead: Potential over-reliance on D2C, possibly opening doors for new challengers if they abandon specialty retail.

• Will Vuori Enter Footwear? (33:43–35:59)

  • Speculation abounds:
    • Dave: "They did a collab with Clay in 2023...very basic, gender neutral, eco-conscious." (34:54–35:18)
    • Consensus: Footwear expansion inevitable, but “bones of brands” litter the space; timeline predicted in 3 years, possibly with an “Allbirds aesthetic.”

• Merrell: Modernizing the Trail & Innovating Internally (23:04–25:26)

  • Merrell claims to be "modernizing hiking," seeing share gains and launching initiatives like a “junior board” to tap younger perspectives.

3. Under Armour’s Identity Crisis: Reclaiming Their Mojo (35:59–44:00)

• The Slide of Under Armour
  • Recent Q1 sales drop; CEO Kevin Plank talks rebuilding, emphasizing team sports/football for “cultural relevance.”
  • Colin asks: Has Vuori "market-corrected" UA, taking the growth path UA once seemed destined for?
    • Owen: “Under Armour is the reason Under Armour hasn't continued to grow...They've screwed the pooch fairly well...chasing top line, expanding into every category under the sun.” (37:07–37:55)
    • UA’s over-expansion, discount-led DTC, lack of strategic channel control, and missed athleisure trends are cited as key missteps.
  • Dave: “Their branding has never been to the point of a Nike or even Adidas. It's always had a little bit of little brotherism.” (41:29)
  • Discussion: UA’s “grr” factor—their brawny, masculine energy—feels diluted. In a more woke era, they lost their edge (or the world moved on).
    • Colin: “I wonder if that cultural moment has passed them by. We always described Under Armour as a 'grr' brand...” (40:00–40:33)
  • Owen: “Maybe it's back to strip clubs for Under Armour...maybe it's back to that football vibe—Protect this house!” (40:46–44:14)

4. Industry Lightning Round & Fun Segments (21:44–28:58)

• Gildan Eyes Hanes Acquisition
  Owen: “Gildan is loungewear, not activewear. My favorite part: they called Hanes an ‘innerwear’ brand. Had you heard that before?” (22:16–22:48)

• Pickleball Corner: Pickle Rage
  – Panel jokes about the rage coming from losing to retirees, and pickleball’s exclusive partnership with Michelob Ultra (light beer for light sports). – Dave reveals: Michelob Ultra is actually #2 by total US beer sales (!).

5. The Parting Shot: “Don’t Overthink It—Rice Krispie Treats FTW” (45:16–47:42)

• Colin closes with a sharp critique of the sports nutrition industry’s overengineering, citing news that Rice Krispie treats are the snack of choice for elite endurance athletes at the Tour de France.
  • Quote: “It’s really pretty simple, folks. Don’t overthink going outside. You’ll figure it out. That’s my parting shot.” (47:15–47:20)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Owen on On Running’s Demand:
  "They’re really seeing their demand outstrip supply...it’s a great virtuous cycle. You can really kind of do what you want there." (07:02–08:10)

• Dave on On Running’s Branding Shift:
  “I think the stuff they’re doing now, it has heart. There is a soul to that, and that’s just a little different than what you expect.” (11:49–11:59)

• Owen on the Rise of the Super Shoe:
  “Super shoes have sort of changed the price anchor...It's changed the price perception to where it used to be that $120 felt expensive, now it's $150, $160.” (16:51–17:35)

• Dave on Running’s Fashion Cycle:
  “There's going to be a sneaker moment, there's going to be a boot moment, there's going to be a brown shoe moment. These are just big fashion cycles.” (20:17–20:53)

• Owen on Under Armour’s Strategic Errors:
  “They’ve screwed the pooch...doing all of the opposite things that we talked about. Not being strategic in distribution, discounting in DTC, chasing top line at expense of brand.” (37:07–37:55)

• Colin on Simple Fuel:
  “If you're training for that local half marathon, the Rice Krispie treat...or the peanut butter sandwich...will suit you just fine. Don't overthink going outside.” (47:14–47:20)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Time | Segment & Highlights | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 05:31 | Main topic: Is running industry “tariff proof”? Deep dive on On Running, D2C vs. wholesale, tariff resilience. | | 08:29 | What On is doing differently: US as main market, strong marketing, timing, and Zendaya. | | 15:13 | Running brands overall—Brooks, Hoka, Altra, Saucony, Super Shoes, price anchors. | | 20:53 | Fashion trends: How sneaker cycles impact outdoor/activewear. | | 21:44 | Lightning Round: Gildan moves for Hanes, Merrell updates, Pickleball/Rage/beer trends. | | 28:58 | Vuori celebrates 10 years and 100th store—strategies and outdoor industry acceptance. | | 33:43 | Predicting Vuori’s move into footwear/Nike parallels | | 35:59 | Under Armour: Reflection on lost edge, brand blunders, possible comeback. | | 45:16 | Closing “Parting Shot”: Hype vs reality in nutrition & gear—keep it simple. |

Episode Takeaways

• Running category brands, led by On, appear especially resilient to global tariff and economic headwinds thanks to sustained D2C growth, premium pricing, fashion/recreational crossover, and clever marketing.
• Brands like Vuori are rewriting the distribution playbook, bypassing mass online retail and deeply curating where and how they grow—much to the chagrin (or envy) of outdoor veterans.
• Under Armour’s woes are self-inflicted—overexpansion, loss of focus, and a dilution of brand identity—which contrast sharply with On’s and Vuori’s discipline and brand clarity.
• Trends are cyclical—what’s “out” now (Vans, boots) may return, and running’s current dominance may eventually wane.
• At the core: Don’t overengineer your outdoor life. Sometimes the simple solution—a Rice Krispie Treat for race fuel, a basic tee for hiking—works just as well.

In the hosts’ words: This podcast is where the real, sometimes messy, always candid outdoor industry conversations happen—always with a little skepticism toward the latest “next big thing.”