The Rock Fight: Outdoor Industry Buy or Sell – Patagonia, VF, Trail Running and More!
Podcast Date: October 20, 2025
Host: Colin True
Guests: Owen Comerford and Producer Dave
Episode Overview
This episode of The Rock Fight takes a candid and often humorous look at some of the biggest trends, challenges, and brands shaping the outdoor industry. Through the "Buy or Sell" game, host Colin True, consigliere Owen Comerford, and Producer Dave dissect the state of powerhouse companies like Patagonia and VF, weigh in on market forecasts, gear up for trend predictions in footwear and trail running, and don’t shy away from roasting outdoor industry sacred cows. Expect direct talk, laughs, the occasional rant, and genuine community spirit—more campfire than boardroom.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Industry Vibe Check & Email Fodder
- Start of Show [03:15]
- After lampooning “eco” marketing with a gag newsflash about Planet Earth divesting polyester, the team launches into the realities facing outdoor brands.
- Listener engagement: They discuss their recent “F-Marry-Kill” poll on The North Face, Patagonia, and Arc’teryx—emphasizing the show’s irreverent, honest audience connection.
- Notable Quote [06:04]:
“Arc’teryx. Sure, he’s a nice enough guy, he has a cool apartment and will take you out to a fancy dinner, but deep down inside, he’s just a regular dude that’s overcompensating for who knows what. Patagonia ... he’s a good guy at his core, and will stand the test of time… The North Face… peaked 15 years ago and hasn’t done anything to better himself since.”
— Listener Matty
2. Outdoor Retail Outlook – Clouds on the Horizon
- Market Trends & Consumer Sentiment [07:01–12:14]
- Recent industry news signals a rough Q4 ahead: inflation, declining consumer sentiment, anticipated tariffs, shifts away from products toward experience-based gifting, soft jobs market.
- Owen Comerford calls out the sector’s exposure to discretionary spending:
“We are a discretionary purchase. So when you look at, you know, tariff driven inflation ... that hurts.” [07:49] - Dave highlights the impact of public sector layoffs and government shutdowns:
“The job market is certainly not indicative of a recovery. And ... the sectors that have been hit hardest... fuel outdoor spending... I don’t know how that can positively impact us.” [11:19]
3. The Youth Are Alright? Shifting Brand Preferences Among Teens
- Teen Survey Insights [12:15–15:07]
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Teen preferences are moving away from Lululemon and Vans, towards Adidas, New Balance, and On/Asics.
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Hot takes on trend cycles—brands like Crocs and Stanley are on the decline, but “comfort items” may simply cycle into new forms (barefoot, chunky, etc.).
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Notable Moment [14:22]:
“Dr. Pepper is the number one soft drink. … and that Adam Sandler was considered the top celebrity. … These teens, they know a thing or two.” — Producer Dave -
Colin's mini-rant: Puffin Drinkware = environmental “disaster” and a symbol of aimless outdoor accessory branding. ["Don't tell me you're an outdoor brand. You're not... you're just making a bunch of crap that doesn't matter.”—15:36]
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4. Lightning Round: Retail Survival, Shutdown Shenanigans, and Squeaky Shoes
- [19:16–23:57]
- Rutabaga Paddle Sports: Instead of closing, is seeking a buyer, possibly an encouraging template for other brick & mortar outdoor retailers.
- Government Shutdown: Yosemite’s lawless moment inspires hypothetical “run & gun” unpermitted photoshoots.
“What can you do if they’re closed, but no one’s enforcing rules? Run and gun, baby.” [21:12] — Dave - On Running Lawsuit: Plaintiffs claim their shoes “squeak.”
“We would have had some squeaktastic emails... create like a squeak symphony.” [22:02] — Owen
5. Buy or Sell: Outdoor Industry Brands, Products, and Trends
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VF Corporation — Buy [27:07]
- Colin sees a contrarian opportunity: “Buy low, right? … TNF is the steadiest Eddie the industry has... Vans is going to come back... Timberland is going to come back... VF has already shed a bunch of pain points.” [27:26]
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Columbia — Buy [28:30]
- Owen applauds its approachable price, freedom from “core” gatekeeping, and innovative marketing: “It frees them up to not worry about offending the core... they have a more affordable price point... zero debt…” [28:39]
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Trail Running — Buy vs. Sell Debate [30:56]
- Dave: Buying for innovation and brand momentum—“It's always going to be an innovative kind of product category.”
- Colin: Selling as it’s possibly peaking—“Right now, the trail running is about as high as it could probably possibly get. It is the category du jour.” [32:41]
- Extended debate on whether trail running’s mainstream moment is a bubble about to burst or still on the ascent.
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Patagonia — Sell (Owen) [36:44]
- Owen’s most provocative take:
“Patagonia… it just feels a little old, a little quiet. Where is the brand that had a site takeover with the message the president stole your land? … A carefully worded op-ed in Time Magazine is not going to cut it.” [36:57] - Hosts agree Patagonia seems to be playing it safer, with less edge and visible leadership than before.
- Owen’s most provocative take:
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Tumbler Category — Sell (Dave) [40:30]
- The insulated drinkware space (Hydro Flask, Stanley et al)? “A dime a dozen,” says Colin. “There are a million options now.... The tumbler is dead. Long live the tumbler.” [41:22]
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REI — Buy (Colin) [42:07]
- Despite frequent mockery, a “boring” reputation, and operational turmoil, REI’s market importance is undeniable.
- “They're not going anywhere. And if they did go anywhere, our industry would have a very real problem.” [42:25]
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Grassroots Connect — Buy (Owen) [44:06]
- Owen endorses this trade show’s model: private, relationship-focused, and a source for discovering new brands.
- Suggests ending with happy hour where “all the black curtains get pulled back” for more open product discovery. [45:28]
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On Running — Sell (Colin) [45:28]
- Growth is impressive, but Colin is unimpressed with the core tech and skeptical about sustainability of “clean, preppy” style.
“Their midsole technology, regardless of the squeak, is ‘meh’... They're going to be less relevant in conversations we have in the outdoor industry…” [46:03] - Dave counters that On’s multi-sport strategy will keep it relevant beyond running.
- Growth is impressive, but Colin is unimpressed with the core tech and skeptical about sustainability of “clean, preppy” style.
Memorable Quotes & Moments
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On why consumer sentiment matters:
“We are a discretionary purchase... so when you look at, you know, tariff driven inflation... that hurts, obviously much, much lower consumer sentiment, that hurts…” — Owen [07:49] -
On hype vs. reality in trail running:
“There are definitely loud voices out there that are saying trail running, it's like Kickboxing in the 80s Sport of the future…” — Colin [33:14] -
On Patagonia’s voice fading:
“Leaders get out in the front and maybe you take some bullets, but you will be leading to do that. You don’t lead from the middle of the crowd.” — Owen [40:08] -
On REI’s “C+” performance:
“Historically it’s always been kind of a C plus outdoor shop... I say that emphasizing their importance about why, how they need to stay relevant...” — Colin [42:26] -
On every insulated tumbler looking the same:
“You can get an insulated vessel to put your water in at... go to 7-11. You could probably buy one...” — Colin [41:34] -
On On Running’s visually iconic shoe:
“What I love about On is just the visual tech of it all to where people can see an On shoe from halfway across the airport concourse and you know it's on…” — Owen [48:02]
Segment Timestamps
- [00:01] Satirical “Planet Earth dumps polyester” news cold open
- [03:15] Team introductions & F-Marry-Kill (Patagonia, North Face, Arc’teryx)
- [07:01] Industry economic woes: data & commentary
- [12:15] Teen preferences & trend-cycle talk: Crocs, Stanley, Puffin Drinkware
- [19:16] Lightning Round: Rutabaga, Yosemite shutdown, On Running squeak lawsuit
- [27:07] Buy or Sell: VF, Columbia, trail running, Patagonia, tumblers, REI, Grassroots Connect, On Running
- [49:27] Parting shot: Study finds road cycling more dangerous than mountain biking (spoiler: cars)
- [51:10] Wrap up & credits
Tone & Style
- Candid, sardonic, conversational, often irreverent
- Deep industry knowledge but “around the campfire” authenticity
- Willingness to question beloved brands and challenge both hype and groupthink
For Listeners Who Missed the Episode
If you want a pulse check on the outdoor retail industry’s current mood—realistic, occasionally grumpy, but always passionate—this episode offers a frank, community-driven rundown. You’ll get honest skepticism about the frothiest trends, reminders not to count out (or over-hype) the legacy players, and a sense that the only thing more evergreen than a Patagonia jacket is the need to cut through the BS. Expect laughs, some nerdy gear talk, and plenty of debate about where to “buy” and “sell” your loyalty—for products, brands, and cultural momentum alike.