The Rock Fight: "Preseason vs ASAP Orders: Who Holds The Risk? Plus: Redefining The Zombie Brand!"

Podcast: The Rock Fight: Outdoor Industry & Adventure Sports Commentary
Date: August 25, 2025
Hosts: Colin True (A), Owen Comerford (C), Producer Dave (D)
Episode Overview:
This episode dives straight into the messy realities of the outdoor industry, tackling who takes on the most risk—brands or retailers—when it comes to preseason versus ASAP (in-season) orders. The hosts also unravel the implications of discounting on a brand’s long-term survival (“zombie brands”) and riff on the revolving door of trends like gravel running shoes and angler-core, as well as the state and relevance of legacy brands like Vans. Packed with insightful banter, listener mail, and a competitive 90s playlist challenge.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Listener Mailbag: Gear Lore & Brand Names (05:24 – 09:48)

• Nike Lava Dome: The Real OG Low-Top Hiker?
  Listener Todd Frank calls out the hosts for giving credit to Montrail for low-top hikers, sharing his own experience with Nike Lava Domes in 1980/81.
  • Quote:
    “These are, in my opinion, the OG Low top hiker. Not that Nike deserves any recognition, but they do deserve it here.” — Todd Frank [06:03]
• Debate Over The True ‘Firsts’ in Outdoor Footwear
  Hosts discuss other contenders like Oslo and HighTec and the rise of fashion influence in outdoor footwear as early as the 80s.
  • Quote:
    “It does have, like, early Nike running shoe. Very cortezy.” — Colin [07:19]
• Outdoor Brand Names: The Vowel-less Database
  Shoutout to listener Mason Colby and his substack exploring outdoor brand names.
  • Quote:
    “We need Mason to start tracking brand names without vowels and see how many are out there.” — Colin [09:31]

2. Consumer Sentiment, Tariffs, and the Pulse of Outdoor Retail (11:51 – 17:44)

• The Power (and Limitations) of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
  Owen breaks down why the survey matters and how it’s a reliable predictor for recessions and consumer spending.
  • Quote:
    “[It] really has been shown to be a good predictor of consumer sentiment. And more importantly, consumer spending—which actually drives two thirds of our GDP.” — Owen [12:31]
• Tariffs and Economic Anxiety
  The hosts unpack why consumer sentiment plunged post-tariff announcements, and how inflation and layoffs might be contributing.
  • Quote:
    “It is actually the consumers are going, oh, no, this tariff thing, we're getting it now. It's real.” — Owen [15:06]
• Job Cuts, AI Fears, and an Uncertain Future
  The conversation widens to include tech-driven layoffs and the impact of AI on new graduates’ job prospects.
  • Quote:
    “AI is a huge source of stress for people as to what that’s doing… It is a combination agreed of more than tariffs. It's tariffs, it's the economy, it's unemployment, it's just the overall level of uncertainty.” — Owen [16:29]

3. Trend Watch: Gravel Running Shoes – Category, Gimmick, or Useful Segmentation? (17:44 – 23:16)

• Are ‘Gravel’ Running Shoes a Distinct Need or Doomed to Fizzle?
  The crew debate if new sub-categories (like gravel) help or just confuse consumers/retailers more.
  • Memorable Moment: Imagining running vests full of interchangeable soles as gravel, trail, and road surfaces change [21:01].
  • Quote:
    “It is silly. I have a gravel shoe, I have a trail shoe, I have a road shoe, I have a day shoe, I have a night shoe...” — Dave [19:46]
• Retailer’s Perspective:
  “If it helps me sell more shoes, I am all over it. Bring it, baby.” — Owen [21:29]
• Brand Stretching and Market Entry:
  Conversation about Salomon using gravel as a way to attract road runners via an accessible middle category.

4. Vans: A Fashion/Function Case Study (23:16 – 28:36)

• Vans’ Clog & Vulcanized Rubber ‘Comeback’
  Analyzing recent product attempts (like confusing clogs) versus core retros (like the old-school souvenir), with skepticism and some nostalgia.
• Is Vans Relevant for Outdoor Retail?
  Hosts discuss selling Vans at Moosejaw, their snowboarding and BMX forays, and the tension between fashion leadership and staying true to skate culture.
  • Quote:
    “I just don’t know how much they're pushing to it... Like you said, the fashion has gone in the core of the line, which kills me because I would still hope and pray that the core of the line is skateboarding.” — Dave [26:28]
  • Quote:
    “If I live in a town, I have a great skate park... you could justify selling some, you know, decks and some trucks and some vans.” — Colin [28:06]

5. Lightning Round: Outdoor Fashion & Societal Trends (28:36 – 32:08)

• Angler-Core: The Next Big Aesthetic?
  Hosts see the urban “fishing” look as another branch off lumbersexual and normcore, driven by people wanting to appear connected to the outdoors.
  • Quote:
    “Anytime you’re talking that many pockets in one place, you have got some function going on.” — Dave [29:51]
• Declining Alcohol Consumption: What’s Next for the Trail-to-Bar Cliché?
  Speculating on the rise of ‘temperance’ and what outdoor brands will turn to for lifestyle marketing.
  • Quote:
    “We put the fun in fentanyl. Like, I don’t know…” — Dave [30:58]
• Inactivity on the Rise:
  Unpacking Gallup stats that nearly 23% of Americans were inactive in the first half of 2025, and pointing the finger at tech, doomscrolling, and even AI conversations.
  • Quote:
    “They're either doom scrolling on their phones, they're playing video games, they're binging squid game, or worst of all, having deep and meaningful conversations with ChatGPT.” — Owen [31:52]

6. Main Event: Preseason vs ASAP Orders—Who Takes the Risk? (33:59 – 43:23)

• Current Environment:
  Retailers are reducing preseason order commitments and shifting inventory risk to brands. There’s a legacy of being “stuck holding the baby” from previous gluts (’22-’23).
• Retailer POV:
  • Todd Frank’s analogy:
    “I reach down and pull a wooden box of risk out of my bag. We spend the next hour pushing it around the table. Us pushing risk at vendors ASAP and them pushing risk at us preseason.” — Todd Frank, via Owen [35:13]
  • Retailers base risk on brand reliability, DTC behavior, and past experience.
• Brand POV:
  • Andrew Gibbs Dabney (Lives in):
    “When pre seasons are reduced with an expectation of similar sales to previous periods, then the brands don’t have clarity to forecast and purchase accurately... Ultimately, retailers reducing pre season ordering in favor of chasing ASAPs will lead to more waste in the system and more discounting down the line.” [36:40]
  • Small brands are especially vulnerable, struggling with cash flow due to late ASAP payments and large upfront deposits.
• Contrarian Brand Take:
  • Caleb Nixon’s perspective from Sea to Summit: Preseasons aren’t always desirable for brands; they can lead to margin erosion and logistical headaches [38:39].
• Zombie Brands and Perpetual Discounting:
  • Hosts argue that brands caught in an endless loop of discounting (especially DTC) to drive revenue are, by definition, “zombie brands.”
  • Quote:
    “If all you’re doing is discounting to stay in business, but you’re never going to break free of that cycle, that's kind of what you've turned into at that point. Because to your point, retailers aren’t going to trust you…” — Colin [42:43]
  • Breaking out requires tough inventory and marketing strategy calls.

7. Parting Shots & Playlist Showdown (44:03 – 52:14)

• Owen’s 90s Playlist Challenge:
  Owen lays out his superior 90s playlist, kicking off competitive banter about which bands define the decade.
  • Notable tracks: Nine Inch Nails “Head Like a Hole”, Pearl Jam “Black”, Rage Against the Machine “Killing in the Name”, Radiohead “Creep”, STP “Interstate Love Song”, Green Day, Sublime, Fiona Apple, Foo Fighters.
• Quote:
  “No, there was no, the only context was, let's get as many bands on this playlist that Colin and co totally forgot about.” — Owen [44:55]
• Final Jabs:
  Reference to Turtle Fur’s new CEO and an observed trend of legacy brands seeking relevance and new consumers with “louder, prouder” positioning [51:14].

Notable Quotes

• “It really is attacking the underpinnings of societies and careers... You’ve got new college graduates that are facing probably the worst market for new college graduates in years, some of it because AI is basically taking all of those jobs...” — Owen [16:29]
• “Any walk can be called a hike if you're wearing the right boots.” — Colin [33:02]
• “Discounting undercuts everything. It undercuts your pricing discipline, it undercuts your value in the consumer's eyes. It absolutely undercuts your value from a retailer's perspective.” — Owen [43:23]

Memorable Moments & Tone

• Banter is lively, irreverent, and unfiltered—“campfire or chairlift” vibes.
• Playful mockery of industry nomenclature and buzzword trends (e.g., gravel running shoes, angler-core).
• Real talk about risk, margin, brand survival—no sugar-coating of industry pain points.
• Community engagement is explicit, with listener emails sparking discussion and influencing topics.
• Fierce but friendly playlist rivalry closes out the show, channeling 90s spirit and spite.

Useful Timestamps

• Listener Mail & Lava Dome Debate: 05:24 – 09:48
• Consumer Sentiment Deep Dive: 11:51 – 17:44
• Gravel Running Shoe Trend: 17:44 – 23:16
• Vans & The Outdoor Crossover: 23:16 – 28:36
• Lightning Round (Angler-core, Drinking Down, Inactivity): 28:36 – 32:08
• Preseason vs ASAP Orders Main Discussion: 33:59 – 43:23
• Zombie Brands & Discount Dynamics: 42:43 – 43:59
• 90s Playlist Face-Off/Outro: 44:03 – 52:14

For the Outdoor Retail or Brand Insider:

If you’re wrestling with order planning, evaluating risks in inventory management, or debating the pros and cons of chasing every new subcategory or aesthetic, this episode’s tightrope walk between current trends and hard truths offers plenty to chew on—by design.

For Casual Listeners:

Expect a heady blend of nostalgia, informed snark, and honest answers to questions most industry podcasts dodge. You’ll end up laughing, learning, and, maybe, humming a 90s anthem.