Podcast Summary: The Rock Fight – "The Bottle Bubble & the Brick-and-Mortar Pivot"

Podcast: The Rock Fight: Outdoor Industry & Adventure Sports Commentary
Episode: The Bottle Bubble & the Brick-and-Mortar Pivot
Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Colin True
Guests: Owen Comerford, Producer Dave

Episode Overview

This episode dives into honest, unfiltered discussions about current developments and challenges in the outdoor industry, focusing on three primary areas:

• The saturation and evolution of the insulated bottle market (“bottle bubble”)
• The surge in brands opening direct-to-consumer (DTC) brick-and-mortar stores
• Recent industry survey results reflecting listener opinions on trends and predictions

The hosts, with a signature candid and campfire-style approach, debate whether the outdoor retail market is at a turning point, analyze recent business pivots, and react to listener feedback.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Listener Survey Results: Outdoor Industry Predictions

[03:19–10:45]

• Survey Setup:

  • The team shared results from their community's responses to Owen’s 10 predictions for the outdoor industry in 2026.

• Highlights:

  • Outdoor Brands Slow Start: Unanimous agreement from all listeners.
  • Tariff Rollbacks: Slightly more than half see it happening, but many caution it will take years to impact brands.
    • “Even if tariffs get rolled back, it will be months, if not years before brands and retailers see the money.” (Listener comment, [05:41])
  • Gear-as-a-Service Subscription: Most disagree it will take off—people don’t want more monthly fees unless the value proposition improves.
  • PFAS-Free Markets: Skepticism about whether “grain market” rainwear will emerge.
    • “If so it will be tiny. I don’t think very many of us really know what we're talking about.” ([06:44])
  • Foot Locker Closures: 100% agreement, with one listener humorously questioning why the brand still exists.
  • REI Dividend Changes: Split views, some think REI already transitioned from a proper dividend to just a loyalty program.
  • Hoka’s Growth Plateaus: 75% agreement.
    • Best comment: “Even Rome fell.” (Listener, [09:06])
  • Featured Used Gear: Split, most doubt it becomes mainstream in core e-commerce.
  • Peak Trail Running: Nearly half think the culture is still growing, with Nike’s entry predicted to make waves.
  • AI as a Gear Buddy: Majority see it coming, but with resistance:
    • “They will. It will be awful and I will hate it. I will hate it even if it’s not awful.” ([09:56])
  • Store Closures: Listeners are already seeing specialty outdoor shops announcing closures for this year.

• Tone: Reflective, skeptical, humorous.

2. Fleet Feet’s Growth & Impact on Outdoor Retail

[10:45–19:46]

• Fleet Feet’s Expansion: Over 300 stores between Fleet Feet and its subsidiary, Marathon.
  • Hosts debated whether Fleet Feet is now the key player in outdoor specialty retail.
  • Owen: Fleet Feet is important for run specialty but still smaller and less “consequential” than REI or Dick’s when measuring revenue and product assortment.
    • “At under 300 doors, they're likely well under a billion in sales. That pales in comparison to an REI at close to $4 billion.” (Owen, [13:10])
• Assortment & Influence: Fleet Feet’s focus remains running (primarily road). Hosts note possibilities for expansion into trail and lifestyle, but unlikely into gear-heavy outdoor categories.
• Brand Perception: Some run specialty dealers may not welcome Fleet Feet’s proliferation.
  • Dave: Humorously suggests possible names for a group of Fleet Feet buyers (e.g., “a fraggle”, “a heel”, “a pace”)
• Takeaway: While Fleet Feet’s scale is notable and growing, its influence on the wider outdoor market is still specialized. Brand-partnering opportunities exist for crossover trail products.

3. The Oversaturated Insulated Bottle Market (“Bottle Bubble”)

[19:46–27:21]

• Recent Decline: Helena Troy’s Q3 sales dropped 6.7%, mainly due to declining Hydro Flask sales; the overall bottle segment is overserved, with major displays at non-specialty retailers.
• Panel’s Consensus: The hydration/bottle market isn’t dying but has matured. Retailers should be selective, focusing on utility/performance (e.g., Hydrapak, Nalgene) plus a single high-margin lifestyle brand.
  • “Hydration is a lifestyle thing. It isn’t really an activity thing anymore.” (Owen, [20:58])
  • Dave: Warns against equating “category end” with maturity—fashion and trend cycles will continue to drive periodic refreshes.
  • On Yeti: Their coolers are outsized in reputation, but drinkware is their real volume driver.
  • Recent moves (e.g., Yeti’s pullback from specialty stores) may backfire when the market plateaus.
    • “I think they’re confusing prima donna for premium.” (Dave, [23:34])

4. Lightning Round – Quick Takes on Industry News

[27:21–35:00]

• Ski Patrol Strikes: Ongoing labor disputes at Telluride highlight deep-rooted wage and affordability issues in snow sports.
  • “As long as there are rich people, there will be a snow sports industry.” (Owen, [28:17])
• Everest Garbage Deposit: Nepal’s $4,000 trash deposit for climbers isn't enough incentive; likely just an extra line-item for clients.
• Bike and Outdoor Divide: Despite customer overlap, the bike industry fiercely protects independent dealers, making it tough for outdoor retailers (e.g., Moosejaw) to add bike brands.
  • “There’s an amount of service that’s needed to have a successful experience with the bike.” (Owen, [33:59])

5. Brick-and-Mortar DTC Pivot

[35:00–51:15]

• DTC Store Openings: Brands such as Hoka, Salomon, Saucony, and La Sportiva expanding with their own shops.
• Geographic Differences:
  • In China, DTC is standard, partly because of undeveloped third-party retail infrastructure.
  • In the US, DTC doors are mainly concentrated in select metros (NYC, Boulder, SLC).
• Omnichannel Reality:
  • Wholesale and DTC can (and should) drive one another—successful strategies now integrate e-commerce, branded retail, and third-party partners.
  • Owen: DTC needs to support, not undercut, wholesale partners; brick-and-mortar builds brand presence but overexpansion is risky.
    • “The retail graveyard is strewn with brands that went too fast on retail expansion before really understanding their model …” (Owen, [47:33])
• Brand Stores Can Benefit Wholesale: When properly executed (e.g., Arc'teryx), a branded store in a market can boost overall brand velocity and even help specialty retailers.
  • “It raises all ships.” (Owen, [44:53])
• Advice to Brands:
  • Expand stores slowly, focusing on flagship experiences.
  • Don’t view DTC vs. wholesale as a zero-sum game.

6. Parting Shot: Micro Stewardship

[51:39–56:00]

• Personal Story: Colin is inspired by a local runner cleaning his neighborhood trail, motivating him to commit to monthly trash pickups.
  • “This woman is a saint … This is now my New Year’s resolution: once a month, I’m planning on going up there with the trash …" (Colin, [53:04])
• Funny Side Discussion: Humor about dog poop bags left on trails and the eternal debate over the “wayback bag” (pickup on the way back).
  • “It's like you're better off to leave the dog shit there than to put it in a bag and then leave it on the side of the trail.” (Owen, [54:42])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI and Outdoor Gear:
  “It will be awful and I will hate it. I'll hate it even if it's not awful.” – Listener, survey comment ([09:56])
• On Category Maturation:
  “I wouldn't conflate end of a category with the maturation of a category.” – Dave ([22:40])
• On Branded Retail:
  “The retail graveyard is strewn with brands that went too fast on retail expansion before really understanding their model… So, I would take my time.” – Owen ([47:33])
• On Trail Trash Duty:
  “Thank you for doing the thing I always say I’m going to do and have not done yet.” – Colin ([53:04])
• On Dog Bags:
  “They're way back bags. … Sometimes I think people probably genuinely forget them.” – Dave & Colin ([55:28])

Timestamps & Segments

• Survey Results & Listener Comments: [03:19–10:45]
• Fleet Feet & Retailer Impact: [10:45–19:46]
• Insulated Bottle Bubble: [19:46–27:21]
• Lightning Round (Ski Strikes, Everest Trash, Bike-Outdoor Industry Divide): [27:21–35:00]
• DTC Stores & Brick-and-Mortar Strategies: [35:00–51:15]
• Parting Shot (Trail Cleanup, Dog Bags): [51:39–56:24]

Takeaways for Outdoor Industry Insiders

• The bottle category is mature—retailers should consolidate stock and focus on a few select brands with high equity or performance.
• DTC brick-and-mortar is resurging, but success depends on careful, data-driven expansion and maintaining symbiotic relationships with wholesale partners.
• Brand stores, if executed strategically, can boost overall awareness and even help specialty retailers, as long as local market saturation is avoided.
• The community values candid, campfire-style truth-telling—the podcast doubles down on giving voice to industry skepticism and grassroots stewardship.

For more candid takes and to join the conversation, check out The Rock Fight's newsletter and upcoming listener surveys.