Podcast Summary: The Rock Fight
Episode: Who Will Be The 2026 Outdoor Industry Comeback Brand Of The Year?
Date: September 8, 2025
Host(s): Colin Tru, Owen Comerford, Producer Dave
Episode Overview
In this spirited episode of The Rock Fight, Colin, Owen, and Dave tackle the timely question: Which outdoor industry brand will earn the title of "Comeback Brand of the Year" in 2026? The episode dives deep into the state of heritage and up-and-coming brands, leveraging unfiltered industry insights, retailer feedback, and honest debate about old favorites, current underdogs, and brands in transition. True to podcast tradition, the crew doesn't shy away from calling out industry "sacred cows," skewering tired narratives, and offering a mix of skepticism and hope for the future of outdoor retail.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Listener Mailbag: State of Outdoor Retail & Brand Engagement
- Todd Buckley, Town to Trail Outfitters (03:55)
- Describes the reality of small shop retail: balancing hard goods vs. apparel, staying flexible for the community, and building a unique shop vibe (complete with a bar).
- Notable Quote: “Footwear is like the milk of an outdoor store… it drives repeat customers.” – Owen (04:58)
- Barry Scrimsher, Industry Veteran (07:03)
- Pushes for transparency: curious about the brands in the unreleased “Tier 3” of Owen’s outdoor brand scorecard.
- Notable Quote: “Is this like release the Snyder cut?” – Colin (07:41)
2. Owen’s Outdoor Brand Scorecard: The Unveiling of Tier 3 (08:05)
- Surprises abound as brands like Hoka, The North Face, and Vuori land in Tier 3, largely for lacking retail partner support or “salesy” tactics.
- Explanation of methodology: sale periods can skew results, plan to revisit after peak season.
- Debate: When big brands like Nike or The North Face land in an unimpressive tier, is it a true red flag or just bad timing/data collection?
3. Retail Consolidation: Backcountry’s Acquisitions (10:48)
- Backcountry’s recent purchases of Level 9 Sports and Velotech Inc. prompt questions about another industry retail rollup.
- Insight: Brick-and-mortar may be critical for surviving tight online margins and aggressive D2C moves by brands.
- Memorable Analogy: “Online is very price sensitive, margins are tight... Retail, brick and mortar, is a little bit better and more stable.” – Owen (13:19)
4. Lightning Round: Industry News & Trends (16:02)
- ON's Expansion into the Weight Training Market
- Colin skeptical about “bullshit” categories, Owen defends performance footwear. (16:35)
- Nike’s ACG and the Ultra Trail Surge
- Lessons in persistence: Nike’s long, cyclical commitment to ACG as a vehicle for outdoor innovation.
- Notable Quote: “Reach 40 to 50 billion dollars, then you can do whatever you want.” – Dave (18:16)
- Kula Cloth’s 7th Birthday
- Lessons for founders: Solve real problems the big brands ignore – especially in underrepresented segments.
5. Main Topic: Who Will Be the 2026 Comeback Brand of the Year? (24:02)
- Criteria: Focus on established brands (with public data for tracking), with a mix of industry input and Rock Fight’s own analysis.
- Historical Context: Mountain Hardwear as the 2025 comeback success—how long true turnarounds actually take.
- Notable Quote: “It took five or six years of hard work. Mountain Hardware’s comeback was not a one-year deal.” – Owen (28:39)
The Candidates (27:00 onward, in order discussed):
- Marmot
- Strong new leadership, heritage advantage, but buyer trust and ownership concerns linger.
- Direct feedback: “Third season of zero bookings by me.” (29:09)
- Columbia
- Huge resources, proven playbook, but struggles with specialty retail adoption and a “DadCorp” perception.
- Nike
- “Never bet against Nike,” but their re-entry to outdoor retail will take time, especially after losing shelf space post-D2C push.
- Notable Quote: “The most exciting thing to come out of Chaco in the last 10 years... new straps.” – Owen (34:26)
- Chaco
- Fading core relevance, declining product quality, “zombie brand” status.
- Under Armour
- Refocusing on athletics; outdoor not a near-future priority.
- The North Face
- A steady performer, not really in “comeback” territory—already back on track.
- Vans
- Lifestyle product at the mercy of trend cycles, tricky fit for outdoor specialty shelves.
- Hydro Flask
- Post-Stanley bottle crown is up for grabs. New CEO offers hope for disciplined turnaround.
- Insight: “Maybe the days of the big bottle brand are over.” – Colin (41:34)
- Prana
- Behind-the-scenes reinvestment, heritage in athleisure; potential if Columbia nurtures them.
- Notable Quotes: “Be your own self, be cool again... Their opportunity lies in being more special, not like everyone else.” – Dave (44:22)
- Solo Stove
- Victim of reckless D2C discounting, but category is healthy and reset could spark a big rebound.
- Notable Insight: “They were selling product on D2C for less than our wholesale cost… complete shit show.” – Owen (46:17)
- Black Diamond
- Phenomenal retailer feedback, growth moves, great leadership—odds-on favorite. Only possible weakness: tariffs and market forces.
Panel Picks:
- Main Consensus: Black Diamond is the clear favorite.
- Secondary Picks:
- Owen: Solo Stove (“With the right moves and discipline, they can absolutely make a comeback.” – 48:39)
- Colin: Prana (“Nobody believes in us, but Columbia’s backing could quickly spark a turnaround.” – 49:09)
- Dave: Nike ACG (“They’ll pique some interest and push the category, even if not full comeback in 2026.” – 49:27)
Memorable Moments & Quotes
- On the importance of shop vibe and adaptation:
“You need to definitely get SKU productivity in a store that size... but they’re keeping the vibe. That’s what makes it special.” — Owen (05:54) - The cyclical fate of brands:
“Live by the trend, die by the trend... can Vans reignite that trend all by themselves?” — Owen (40:09) - Harsh D2C realities:
“Being a pure play e-commerce for other brands is a tough play—the numbers are, it’s tough to make it work.” — Owen (14:27) - Resilience for founders:
“If you think you’re too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito.” — Colin quoting the Dalai Lama (23:01) - On comeback cycles:
“The comeback that everyone’s talking about took 5 or 6 years of hard work.” — Owen (28:39) - Lightning Round wisdom:
“First of all, I have a problem with you saying the weight training shoes are a bullshit category.” — Owen (16:35)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Mailbag & Industry Scorecard: 03:55 – 10:48
- Retail Consolidation / Backcountry Acquisitions: 10:48 – 16:02
- Lightning Round (Industry Trends & Brand Moves): 16:02 – 24:02
- Main Debate: 2026 Comeback Brand Picks: 24:02 – 49:46
- Panel’s Secondary Picks: 48:12 – 49:46
- Parting Shot (Farewell to Northwest Alpine): 49:46 – 51:25
Parting Shot
Colin salutes Northwest Alpine and founder Bill Amos as the brand closes after 15 years—a loss of a “unique voice” in the outdoor industry. The closing reminds listeners how important small challenger brands are for keeping the industry honest and innovative.
“They challenge the status quo... we may not always agree, but we can absolutely toast and celebrate.” — Colin (51:01)
Final Thought
The panel agrees the comeback path is arduous and unpredictable. Consistent retailer love, authentic storytelling, operational discipline, and bold product moves are key factors for any heritage or emerging brand hoping to be the turnaround story of 2026. Black Diamond, Solo Stove, Prana, and Nike ACG are the ones to watch—but in true Rock Fight spirit, nothing is sacred and everything is open for debate.
For listener feedback:
Who’s your comeback pick? Write the crew at myrockfightmail.com