Episode Overview

Title: Bill O’Reilly Visibly Shocks Dave Rubin w/ His Dark Prediction for What Happens Next
Podcast: The Rubin Report
Host: Dave Rubin
Guest: Bill O’Reilly
Date: October 19, 2025

In this episode, Dave Rubin welcomes Bill O’Reilly, renowned broadcaster and bestselling author, to discuss his new book "Confronting Evil," the current state of American politics, the decline of traditional values, and his grim predictions for cities like New York under progressive leadership. O’Reilly offers sharp opinions on criminal justice, political apathy, media integrity, and the future of American cities, frequently referencing historical parallels and his decades of experience covering global events.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of New York City & O'Reilly's Dark Prediction

[00:00–01:49, 14:19–17:47]

• NYPD Staffing Crisis & Crime:

  • O’Reilly opens with a dire assessment: NYPD is already "10,000 under what they should be," and predicts a further exodus of 10,000 officers if Mandami, the progressive candidate, wins the mayoralty.
  • He blames current leadership and no-bail policies for creating a "free fire zone on crime."

• Economic Fallout & Mass Exodus:

  • O'Reilly claims real estate prices outside NYC have spiked as residents "get the hell out before he [Mandami] comes in," predicting "a half million will leave the New York City area in four years" due to draconian taxation and collapsing public order.
  • Quote:

    "That flow out I estimate to be at a half million people in four years under Mandami. A half million will leave the New York City area." — Bill O’Reilly [00:00]

2. O'Reilly’s Achievements & Perspective on "Confronting Evil"

[02:00–04:10, 12:16–14:19]

• Publishing Record:

  • O’Reilly proudly notes his 20 number-one bestsellers, surpassing Bob Woodward ("safe at 20").
  • Highlights the changing media landscape: "People don't read nearly as much as they used to."

• "Evil" as a Societal Force:

  • The book explores societal breakdowns driven by evil leaders and ideas; O’Reilly emphasizes its relevance given contemporary global crises and warns "evil is pretty much everywhere now."
  • Notable moment about timing:

    "It's timely because came out September 9th. The next day I got up, Putin's lobbing missiles into Poland." — Bill O’Reilly [04:10]

3. Why Good People Do Nothing & The Rise of Apathetic and Ill-Informed Society

[05:14–09:13]

• Apathy and Stupidity as Social Ailments:

  • O’Reilly: Only 15% are "born bad" but the true crisis is in the 85% who must choose to act.
  • Two main problems:
    1. Apathy: "Overwhelmed...I can't do anything about it."
    2. Stupidity: Not IQ, but lack of seeking knowledge; blames public schooling for not teaching history, civics, or right and wrong.
  • Quote:

    "If you don't seek knowledge, if you don't know anything, then you're going to get it right between the eyes." — Bill O’Reilly [08:16]

• Progressive Movement’s Philosophical Dangers:

  • Accuses the far left of seeking to "destroy all traditions," viewing America as "evil" and excusing criminal behavior as society’s fault.
  • Quote:

    "They punch some old lady in the mouth for drug money. Ah, no, no. Society made them do that." — Bill O’Reilly [06:30]

4. History Lessons & Contemporary China

[09:13–12:16]

• Distinct Evil in History (Mao, Stalin, Hitler):

  • O’Reilly recounts the horrors under Mao: "20 million, many of whom starved to death because of him."
  • Shares a vivid experience meeting Chinese officials to discuss US-China partnership, highlighting Chinese public ignorance of Mao’s crimes.

• Parallels and US-China Relations:

  • Rather than inevitable conflict, O’Reilly sees "detente is possible," noting China’s need for American markets.

5. Moral Authority: Religion, Politics, and Cultural Decay

[12:16–14:19]

• Who Provides Moral Guidance?
  • O'Reilly is skeptical of politicians’ ability to impart morality ("most of them are immoral!") but insists leaders can and should articulate clear behavioral standards.
  • Critiques the withering influence of religion: "Religion has dissipated...a lot of kids don't ever hear about it."

6. The Mandami/Castro Comparison & Predictions for NYC

[14:19–18:17]

• Mandami’s Alleged Radical Agenda:

  • O’Reilly draws a stark parallel: "Mandami is doing the Fidel Castro playbook almost word for word."
  • Predicts sharp increases in crime, collapse of public services, draconian taxation, and a "terrible rise in individual crime and...public depravity, homeless drug addicts running all over the place."

• Unlikely Full Breakdown:

  • O’Reilly refuses to predict outright class warfare, arguing even poor residents desire "social order," but warns of social collapse if trends continue.

7. On Democratic Leadership: Pritzker vs. Newsom

[20:24–24:49]

• Pritzker as "Malevolent":

  • O’Reilly ranks Illinois' J.B. Pritzker above Newsom in destructiveness, stating:

    "Pritzker is so invested in hatred for...anybody who opposes him that he's at a different level...Is Pritzker malevolent? Yes, I can make that call." — Bill O’Reilly [22:10]

• Chicago’s Crisis & Denial:

  • O’Reilly laments persistent violence: "Chicago is 4,000 dead, murdered under his regime, 80% African Americans."
  • Accuses Pritzker and Johnson (Chicago’s mayor) of denial: "They live in a world of denial...It doesn't exist. No, it's not going on."

• Antifa and Portland:

  • Oregon’s “organized anarchy” is cited as a further example of denial among progressive leaders about the true extent of societal breakdown.

8. State of the Media: Old vs. New

[25:14–29:12]

• Decline of Robust Debate:

  • O’Reilly reminisces about the heyday of cable news, where genuine debate was encouraged:

    "My orders were get the smartest person you can get to come up against me because it’s fun to watch that." — Bill O’Reilly [26:35]

  • Contrasts this with today’s echo chambers and banishment of dissenting views on both the left and right.

• Exclusion from Mainstream Media:

  • Complains of being shut out despite bestselling author status:

    "I can’t get on the CBS Sunday Morning program...That’s a form of censorship." — Bill O’Reilly [28:14]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------|-------| | 00:00 | O’Reilly | "The NYPD...is 10,000 light, 10,000 under what they should be." | | 01:49 | Rubin | "Legend, broadcaster Bill O’Reilly. How do you feel about legendary broadcaster Bill O'Reilly?" | | 04:10 | O’Reilly | "The next day I got up, Putin's lobbing missiles into Poland...all this hell would break loose." | | 08:16 | O’Reilly | "If you don't seek knowledge...you're going to get it right between the eyes." | | 15:29 | O’Reilly | "He would confiscate everything you have, Dave, like that if he could." | | 22:10 | O’Reilly | "Is Pritzker malevolent? Yes, I can make that call." | | 26:35 | O’Reilly | "My orders were get the smartest person you can get to come up against me because it’s fun to watch that." | | 28:14 | O’Reilly | "I can’t get on the CBS Sunday Morning program...That’s a form of censorship." |

Major Segments & Timestamps

• NYC in Decline & Mass Exodus: [00:00–01:49], [14:19–17:47]
• O'Reilly's Book & On Confronting Evil: [02:00–04:10], [12:16–14:19]
• Why Good People Do Nothing: [05:14–09:13]
• Evil in History & China Today: [09:13–12:16]
• Moral Responsibility & Loss of Religion: [12:16–14:19]
• On Mandami and NYC's Future: [14:19–18:17]
• Pritzker vs. Newsom & Progressive Governance: [20:24–24:49]
• Media: Past, Present, and Lost Debates: [25:14–29:12]

Summary & Takeaways

Bill O’Reilly delivers his signature brand of blunt analysis, combining personal anecdotes, historical parallels, and dark predictions, particularly for cities under progressive governance. He laments the apathy and ignorance of the American public, the retreat of religion and moral authority, and a media environment increasingly hostile to meaningful debate. The episode is a clarion call for vigilance, civic engagement, and a return to tradition, with O’Reilly casting himself as a rare voice willing to "tell you the truth," regardless of popularity or political party.

For listeners seeking candid commentary on the intersection of politics, culture, and history, this episode is classic O'Reilly, unfiltered and stoic, but far from optimistic about what comes next.