The Rubin Report

Episode: Charlie Kirk’s Warning for MAGA if Mamdani Won
Host: Dave Rubin
Date: November 5, 2025

Episode Overview

In this high-energy post-election episode, Dave Rubin reacts to what he calls "utter disasters" for conservatives following the previous day's elections in New York, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. The main focus is the victory of Zoran Mamdani—a self-described socialist and immigrant—elected as Mayor of New York City. Drawing on past interviews and posthumous warnings from Charlie Kirk, Rubin analyzes how economic dissatisfaction among young voters is fueling radical political shifts. He dissects the role of identity politics, radicalism within the Democratic Party, and the challenge for conservatives to respond. Throughout, Rubin blends indignation, biting humor, and political strategy advice, highlighting the risks but also seeking hope for the future of MAGA and American freedom.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Remarks: “A Bad Day for the United States”

• [01:11] Dave Rubin sets the tone with an admission: “I don't think I can really sugarcoat it for you today. It is not a great day for the United States of America.”
• Promise to do a deeper analysis ("autopsy") of the results—not just surface-level punditry.
• Aims to find reasons for hope amidst the gloom.

2. The Rise of Mamdani: Warning Signs Realized

• Notable segment referencing a Charlie Kirk interview on Tucker Carlson months prior (August 2025), where Kirk flagged Zoran Mamdani’s candidacy as a “distress signal by young people” seeking radical change due to economic frustrations ([03:26]).
• Charlie Kirk:

  “The rise of Mamdani should be a... coming attraction of what is coming next.” ([03:26])

Mamdani’s Identity and Victory

• [04:03] Rubin: “The socialist, as Charlie said, Muslim communist, will now be the mayor of New York City, the once great epicenter of capitalism.”
• Mamdani wins with 49.5% of the vote over Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa (details on vote percentages at [04:03]).

Acceptance Speech Analysis

• [06:01] Mamdani quotes socialist Eugene Debs:

  “I can see the dawn of a better day for humanity.”

• Rubin contextualizes Debs as an icon of American socialism and critiques Mamdani's avowed big government stance.

• [07:15] Mamdani asserts:

  “We will prove that there is no problem too large for government to solve and no concern too small for it to care about.”

• Rubin counters with Reagan’s iconic skepticism:

  "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'"

Identity Politics Invoked

• [09:14] Mamdani plays identity politics in victory speech, naming ethnic groups ("Yemeni bodega owners and Mexican abuelas...") and targets Donald Trump:

  “We will hold bad landlords to account because the Donald Trumps of our city have grown far too comfortable taking advantage of their tenants.” ([09:14])

• Rubin sharply objects, interpreting the speech as marginalizing earlier immigrant communities and promoting divisiveness ([10:23]).

"City of Immigrants" Message

• [12:05] Mamdani:

  “New York will remain a city of immigrants... and as of tonight, led by an immigrant. So hear me, President Trump, when I say this. To get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us.”

3. Media & Party Reactions

Van Jones' Critique

• [15:09] Van Jones (CNN):

  “I think he missed an opportunity... There are a lot of people trying to figure out, can I get on this train with him or not?... I think his tone was sharp... almost yelling... a little bit of a character switch here...”

• Rubin is unsympathetic, arguing Mamdani’s radicalism was always apparent.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) Triumphant

• [16:49] AOC:

  “So many people ... were also tasked with defeating the old guard of the Democratic Party... puts those folks on notice that we have a future to plan for, we have a future to fight for. And we're either going to do that together or you're going to be left behind...”

  “Do you understand the assignment of fighting fascism right now?” ([17:41])

• Rubin: “...she's about to say, and we're going to send you to the fucking gulag, you get it?... They are not pretending to not be radicals anymore.”

Party Upheaval & National Implications

• [18:44] Scott Jennings (CNN):

  “I see the energy in the Democratic Party tonight behind a socialist... Mamdani is an avowed socialist. It's not what people say that he is. It's what he says that he is. He's now the leader of their party."

• Consensus among panelists that the Democratic establishment (e.g. Chuck Schumer) is under threat from the ascendant left-wing faction.

4. Other Key Election Results and Bad News for Republicans

New Jersey:

• Democrat Mickey Sherrill wins big over Jack Ciattarelli; Republicans, expecting a close race, fall short ([23:47]).
• Ripple effect: Anticipated exodus from New York to “redder” states may accelerate due to unpalatable alternatives nearby.

Virginia:

• Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeats Winsome Sears, despite former President Obama’s opposition to Sears (49% of black vote for Spanberger).
• Jay Jones, a controversial candidate with a history of violent rhetoric, elected as Attorney General ([24:46]).

Voter Rationales & Disenchantment

• Rubin discusses the presence of legal immigrants voting for left-leaning candidates—sometimes, he argues, for reasons counter to traditional American values ([24:56]).
• [26:47] Scott Jennings warns not to overread the losses, observing that Virginia and New Jersey have unique political demographics.

5. Generation Z & The Affordability Crisis

Youth Turnout & Socialist Lean

• Significant uptick in young voter turnout, especially in early voting ([29:34]):

  "18 to 29 year olds have cast ballots at a 38% higher rate... with over 45,000 young voters already participating." ([29:34] NYT data)

• [30:40] ABC News exit polling:

  "Mamdani earning 72% support from voters aged 18 to 29, a stark contrast to Cuomo's 22% in that group. This is the voice of a generation demanding affordability and equity."

Socioeconomic Discontent—Quotes & Data

• Rubin brings back Charlie Kirk’s warning:

  “This is yet another distress signal by young people to say, hey, if you're not going to fix our life economically, we're going to get very radical politically.” ([31:59], [59:21])

• Scott Galloway (Stern School):

  “For the first time in our Nation's history, a 30 year old man or woman isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30. That is the social compact breaking down... Young people are enraged.” ([33:50]) "Housing prices have gone from 290 to 420 in the last four years. So a young person, a house, stocks that I don't own skyrocket in value." ([37:14])

• Rubin highlights staggering housing/income disparity since 2000:

  "Home prices rose 197% since 2000... household income only rose 40%." ([41:36])

• Young people’s perception: Capitalism isn’t working for them, risk pushing them toward “burn it all down” solutions.

6. Paths Forward for Conservatives

Calls to Focus on Affordability, Not Identity

• Vivek (Ramaswamy) quote [46:42]:

  “Our side needs to focus on affordability, make the American dream affordable... And number two, cut out the identity politics. It doesn't suit Republicans. It's not for us. That's the woke left's game, not ours.”

• J.D. Vance (just-tweeted statement):

  "Our coalition is lower propensity and that means we have to do better at turning out voters than we have in the past... we're going to keep on working to make a decent life affordable in this country..." ([47:07])

Rubin’s Synthesis and Plea to GOP:

• Urges immediate action: “To whatever extent the government can do anything to fix economic conditions... it must be done right now.”
• Warns against right-wing infighting and bigotry: “Enough already.”

Trump’s Opportunity & Next Steps

• Cites Trump wins (laid out by Caroline Levitt): significant tax cuts, stricter immigration control, low inflation, foreign policy achievements ([56:44]).
• Emphasizes the need to rebrand MAGA and market capitalism’s promise in a way that resonates with the disaffected youth ([60:24]).

7. Broader Trends: Gerrymandering & State-Level Democratic Entrenchment

• California passes Prop 50, effectively ensuring Democratic legislative dominance through redistricting ([51:39]).

• 82% of Prop 50 voters openly admit the motive was to counter the GOP, not to draw fair lines ([52:11]).

• Rubin laments: "It is quite literally the end of democracy as we know it, because no one that is ever in power will be like, you know what, I'm not going to do that." ([55:08])

• Warns of similar moves in Maryland and likely future competition among both parties to maintain power through map manipulation.

8. Reflections on Federalism & Optimism Amid Adversity

• Rubin quotes John Jay from Federalist #2 on the necessity of government and national cohesion ([61:14]).
• Recalls the American tradition of "laboratories of democracy" and underscores the option for Americans to "vote with their feet"—leave mismanaged blue states for more promising places like Florida ([63:00]).
• Humorous, tongue-in-cheek advice for New Yorkers considering a move to Florida ([64:13]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Charlie Kirk on Mamdani's rise:

  "This is yet another distress signal by young people to say, hey, if you're not going to fix our life economically, we're going to get very radical politically." ([03:26], [59:21])

• Zoran Mamdani accepting victory:

  “I can see the dawn of a better day for humanity.” ([06:01])

• Dave Rubin reacting to Mamdani's 'no problem too large for government' line:

  “Oh, no problem too big for government to solve. Do we have a Ronald Reagan?” ([07:24])

• AOC laying claim to the revolution:

  “…a lot of people who are willing to talk about party unity when it serves them, but not party unity when it serves everybody, it puts those folks on notice. And I think... you're going to be left behind.” ([17:40])

• Scott Galloway on generational economics:

  "Young people are enraged... they look up, they see wealth, exceptional wealth across my generation... and they are really struggling. Their purchasing power is going down." ([33:50])

• Vivek Ramaswamy:

  "Cut out the identity politics. It doesn't suit Republicans. It's not for us. That's the woke left's game, not ours." ([46:43])

• JD Vance:

  "The infighting is stupid. I care about my fellow citizens, particularly young Americans, being able to afford a decent life." ([47:07])

• Dave Rubin’s “white pill”:

  “A certain set of people, particularly young people... think that the thing is not working for them. And in some way they might be right. So the challenge for the president now... is... making young people feel like this works, this magical, precious system we have.” ([58:15])

• Rubin closing on Federalist Paper #2 and American unity:

  “...If we don't have those things, we will end up thinking about the identity politics version of all of this, which is exactly what is being sold to us through the socialists...” ([61:14])

Important Timestamps

• [01:11] — Dave Rubin’s opening reaction to the elections
• [03:26] — Charlie Kirk’s warning about Mamdani
• [06:01] — Mamdani’s acceptance, quoting Eugene Debs
• [07:15] — Mamdani’s “no problem too large for government” line, Rubin invokes Reagan
• [09:14] — Mamdani’s identity politics in acceptance
• [12:05] — Mamdani’s “city of immigrants” speech
• [15:09] — Van Jones critiques Mamdani's tone
• [16:49] — AOC spells out the revolution
• [18:44] — Scott Jennings: "Mamdani is the leader of their party"
• [29:34] — Gen Z turnout data (NYC election)
• [30:40] — Exit poll: Mamdani wins youth by huge margin
• [31:59]/[59:21] — Charlie Kirk’s “distress signal” quote
• [33:50]/[37:14] — Scott Galloway on the economic plight of young people
• [41:36] — Housing prices vs. income growth stats
• [46:42] — Vivek on affordability and identity politics
• [47:07] — JD Vance on turnout and coalition-building
• [51:39] — CA’s Prop 50 redistricting outcome
• [56:44] — Caroline Levitt: Trump’s second-term accomplishments
• [61:14] — Rubin reads John Jay, Federalist #2
• [63:00+] — Rubin's final reflection on “voting with your feet”

Summary Conclusion

Dave Rubin’s analysis, infused with scathing humor and palpable anxiety, reads the 2025 blue wave as a wake-up call for conservatives and old-guard Democrats alike. The episode pivots around Charlie Kirk’s warnings that economic malaise among young people is turning them radically leftward, as evidenced by Zoran Mamdani’s win in New York City.

Rubin highlights a convergence of trends: explosive youth engagement, deep dissatisfaction over affordability, the unmasked radicalism of the Democratic Party, and the growing effectiveness of socialist messaging. He calls on conservatives—especially Donald Trump—to reclaim the narrative by directly tackling the affordability crisis and rejecting divisive identity politics.

Throughout, Rubin’s tone vacillates between black-pilled dismay and stubborn optimism, urging listeners to fight for the promise of American prosperity, freedom, and opportunity—even as the “revolution” barrels forward in blue states.