Podcast Summary:

The Rubin Report
Episode: How to Spot Lies & Find Truth as Conspiracies Spread on Both Sides
Guest: Michael Shermer
Date: January 31, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Dave Rubin welcomes Michael Shermer, founder of Skeptic magazine and author of the new book “Truth: What It Is, How to Find It and Why It Still Matters.” Their conversation dives into the complicated state of truth in 2026, how to discern fact from fiction in a media-saturated age, the revival of conspiracy theories on both sides of the political spectrum, the evolving relationship between science and religion, and the role of technology and independent journalism in shaping our perceptions of reality.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The State of Truth in 2026

• Truth Under Assault: Shermer argues that public trust in institutions and experts is at a low, especially following COVID. The inability or unwillingness of authorities to communicate probabilistically (“Bayesian” reasoning) fueled a collapse of trust.

  “Instead of saying at the moment we think… but we’re really actually not sure… they go, ‘Here’s what the science has settled.’ And then, a month later: ‘Never mind, now we’re going with this.’” — Michael Shermer [05:03]

• Bayesian Approach Recommended:
  Shermer urges a move away from absolute certainty and toward probabilistic assessments (e.g., “60% chance” instead of “definitely true/false”).

2. Distrust in Institutions and the Media

• Permanent Change in Trust: Rubin and Shermer discuss how the 2020 pandemic, politicization, and events like school closures eroded trust—possibly irreparably.

  “Maybe we’ll never get back to Walter Cronkite… Now, I don’t trust any of them anymore without some fact checking.” — Michael Shermer [09:13]

• Rise of Independent Journalists:
  Bari Weiss cited as an example of efforts to restore journalistic integrity. However, Shermer stresses the limitation: “Don’t trust any one of them either… sample multiple independent journalists.” [10:18]

3. The Information Overload & Quest for Truth

• Information Glut & Skepticism:
  In a world of infinite content creators and AI, how do people “pilfer” truth out of a mess of data?

  “Remember Steve Bannon’s line about throwing… just throw shit at the system and people won’t know what to believe and then we’ll tell them what the truth is.” — Michael Shermer [11:23]

• Defining Truth:
  Shermer’s definition:

  “Truth is something confirmed to such an extent it would be rational to offer our provisional assent… truth of the small t, provisional. I could change my mind tomorrow...” [11:32]

• Role of Fact-Checkers and AI:
  Tools like Politifact, Snopes, LLMs (e.g. Grok, Gemini) are helpful but not perfect. Shermer notes the practicality limitations: “Who has time to do all this for everything?” [14:21]

4. The Interplay of Secularism, Religion, and Deep Truths

• Changing Approach to Religion:
  Shermer shares a personal evolution, moving from debunking religious stories as mere “myths” to seeing value in their allegorical or existential truths.

  “I’ve taken a more respectful approach… biblical stories are a form of great literature… they carry deeper truths… psychological truths…” [16:46, 18:08]

• Stories & Culture:
  The pair discuss how the power of narrative (“memeification”) enables religions to scale in a way atheism does not. Cultural Christianity is on the rise even among prominent atheists as a buffer against ideological or societal threats.

5. Conspiracies, “Just Asking Questions,” and Historical Revisionism

• Rise of Conspiracies on Both Sides:
  Shermer notes the disturbing trend of popular media personalities (Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, et al.) flirting with revisionist histories and Holocaust denial tropes.

  “I don’t know what’s worse. They know it’s bullshit and they’re doing it for clicks… or they don’t know and they’ve never read much. None of them are historians.” [27:01, 28:56]

• Weaponizing Skepticism:
  The phrase “just asking questions” is co-opted to sow doubt rather than sincerely pursue answers:

  “They’ve somehow perverted it though, to mean something else… there is no reality first. And if there’s no reality first, well, congratulations, you’ll be swimming in a pool of questions the rest of your life.” — Dave Rubin [29:12] “We actually call that jacking off. They already have an agenda. The questions are all moving in a particular direction.” — Michael Shermer [29:42]

6. Why People Fall for Conspiracies and Bad Information

• Cognitive Biases:
  Shermer references the psychological “default to truth” — most people believe what they’re told unless challenged, but most people don’t join cults, and the actual rate of gullibility is often exaggerated (base rate neglect).

• Media Amplifies Outliers:
  “Nobody covers schools that were not shot up today.” This selective coverage inflates perceived prevalence of rare, negative events. [33:30]

• Genetic Fallacy:
  Shermer stresses judging arguments by their merit, not by the person making them (“genetic fallacy”):

  “You can’t discount somebody’s argument because of who they are or where they came from or what the origin of the story is.” [35:00]

7. Technological Frontiers: Deepfakes, AI, and Trust

• Deepfake Concerns:
  Advances in AI-generated video prompt new fears—one viral, fake video could spark international crisis.

  “What if somebody makes a video of Putin saying ‘we’re going to launch the missiles in an hour,’ and then Trump goes, ‘oh my god, look at the video…’” — Michael Shermer [37:01]

• Institutional Trust Erosion:
  Universities and media suffer credibility loss as ideological uniformity and high-profile failures (e.g., COVID, “what is a woman?” debates) alienate broad audiences. [38:00–39:00]

8. UFOs, UAPs, and the Search for “The Ultimate Truth”

• Newfound Legitimacy:
  The transition from “UFOs” (fringe) to “UAPs” (Unidentified Aerial/Anomalous Phenomena) and mainstream political attention (e.g., Senators and pilots) has amplified the conversation—but Shermer remains highly skeptical:

  “I think they’re probably out there somewhere in the cosmos, but I think they just haven’t come here.” [41:25, 43:00]

• What Would Convince Shermer:
  Shermer draws a parallel to the Chinese spy balloon incident: real disclosure involves clear evidence available to all, not claims of classified secrets.

  “If Marco Rubio… said, ‘I looked into it, I went to Area 51… I did see it’… that would change my priors and up my credence…” [44:20]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On experts and humility:

  “Never assign a 0 or 100% to anything because we’re fallible.” — Michael Shermer [00:00, 05:03]

• On the evolution of the information landscape:

  “Now, we have independent journalists. So that’s good. I think many sources checking out stories is good. But I don’t trust any one of them either.” — Michael Shermer [10:18]

• On AI assistants:

  “I have a Tesla, so I just push the little button… ‘Hey Grok, what’s the—’ and then I get an answer. And she, it’s a female voice, has this conversation and… it’s kind of playful, it’s actually kind of fun.” — Michael Shermer [15:15]

• On religious stories:

  “You’re missing the point of the story by asking if it really happened. Right. It’s a story, an allegory that has other meanings.” — Michael Shermer [18:08]

• On the “just asking questions” tactic:

  “We actually call that jacking off. They already have an agenda. The questions are all moving in a particular direction…” — Michael Shermer [29:42]

Important Timestamps

• [05:03] — Shermer discusses the erosion of trust in experts and institutions post-COVID.
• [09:13] — The enduring loss of faith in legacy media.
• [11:23] — The “Steve Bannon” approach and the definition of truth.
• [16:46] — Shermer’s shift from ridiculing to respecting religious stories’ existential truths.
• [27:01] — The blitz of conspiracy theories and Holocaust revisionism in modern media.
• [29:42] — How the phrase “just asking questions” is weaponized to erode reality.
• [33:30] — Explanation of media amplification of negative outlier events.
• [37:01] — Deepfakes, institutional trust, and the risks of viral misinformation.
• [41:25] — The UFO/UAP craze and the rational threshold for belief.
• [44:20] — What would constitute proof of alien visitation for Shermer.

Conclusion

This episode is a nuanced, candid conversation about the modern struggle to discern truth in a deeply polarized, information-saturated culture. Shermer and Rubin challenge listeners to adopt provisional thinking, embrace complexity, consult multiple sources, and recognize the power (and pitfalls) of stories—while remaining vigilant against both technologically driven deception and the seductions of easy certainty from any ideological edge.