Scientist Destroys Green Energy Narrative w/ Facts in Minutes | Bjørn Lomborg

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Rubin Report Episode: Scientist Destroys Green Energy Narrative w/ Facts in Minutes | Bjørn Lomborg
Host: Dave Rubin
Guest: Bjørn Lomborg
Release Date: March 4, 2025

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Introduction

In this compelling episode of The Rubin Report, host Dave Rubin engages in a thought-provoking conversation with renowned climate skeptic Bjørn Lomborg. Lomborg, a frequent guest on the show, delves into the intricacies of green energy, climate policies, and the broader implications for global prosperity. This detailed summary captures the essence of their discussion, highlighting key points, insightful analyses, and noteworthy quotes.

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1. Critique of Solar and Wind Energy Economics

Lomborg opens the conversation by challenging the commonly held belief that solar and wind energy are the cheapest forms of electricity available today. He acknowledges the declining costs shown in various graphs but emphasizes the hidden expenses associated with their intermittent nature.

Bjørn Lomborg [00:00]: "People will tell you that solar and wind is incredibly cheap. And that's technically true. This is why it's such an insidious argument."

He explains that while solar and wind can be cost-effective when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, their reliability becomes a significant issue during periods without these natural resources, leading to higher overall costs.

Bjørn Lomborg [00:45]: "When the sun is shining and the wind is blowing, but otherwise it's the most expensive power on the planet because it's infinitely costly, you can't get it."

Lomborg further illustrates this point by comparing electricity costs across countries with varying levels of solar and wind adoption, noting that nations with minimal reliance on these sources enjoy cheaper electricity rates.

Bjørn Lomborg [01:12]: "You have cheap countries that have virtually no solar and wind and then you just get more and more expensive. The reality is there's no countries down here that are saying we have lots of solar and wind and cheap power."

2. Public Perception and Climate Hysteria

Rubin shifts the discussion to public sentiment around climate change, noting a perceived decline in hysteria, particularly in the American context. Lomborg concurs, attributing this shift to growing recognition of the high costs associated with current climate policies and the influence of culture wars.

Dave Rubin [01:36]: "Suddenly the hysteria, at least from an American perspective, the hysteria around climate does seem like it's calming down. Do you agree with that?"

Bjørn Lomborg [02:16]: "People are starting to realize their current policies have been incredibly costly and maybe we should find another and smarter way."

He expresses concern over the polarized discourse, cautioning against extreme positions that either catastrophize climate change or dismiss it entirely.

Bjørn Lomborg [02:36]: "We're very easily being posed in this. It's either the end of mankind or it's nothing at all."

3. Challenges of Battery Storage

The conversation delves into the practicality of relying solely on solar and wind energy, with Lomborg highlighting the massive infrastructure and investment required to make them viable on a societal scale.

Bjørn Lomborg [06:16]: "If you run a society that needs to energy or electricity 247 but you only have it sometimes...you need about three months of battery right now. The US has about 10 minutes."

He underscores the impracticality of current battery technology to support a fully renewable energy grid, pointing out the exorbitant costs that such a transition would impose on the economy.

Bjørn Lomborg [07:16]: "You would need so much power, so much batteries, that it would cost you about a third of the US GDP every year just to literally get the batteries."

4. Nuclear Energy as a Viable Alternative

Lomborg advocates for the expansion of nuclear energy, critiquing the regulatory hurdles and advocating for the development of next-generation nuclear technologies.

Bjørn Lomborg [09:33]: "Nuclear power is being built a lot in China...but everywhere else, because we do it in start-stop fashion...the costs escalate to the point where third generation nuclear...is just not commercially viable."

He envisions a future with modular, small nuclear power plants that are factory-built and inherently safe, potentially revolutionizing the energy landscape.

Bjørn Lomborg [10:45]: "They're basically like prefab houses. Exactly. Yeah. And that is fantastic if we can make it work."

5. The Future of Fossil Fuels

Addressing the role of fossil fuels, Lomborg emphasizes their indispensability in maintaining global prosperity and preventing widespread human suffering.

Bjørn Lomborg [11:20]: "We're a fossil fuel based civilization...if you stop that, 4 billion people would starve to death."

He argues for a balanced approach that includes continued use of fossil fuels while exploring alternative energy sources, highlighting the challenges associated with transitioning away from them.

Bjørn Lomborg [12:46]: "We need to have everything on the table...invest a little bit of research money in all of these things."

6. Energy and Global Prosperity

Lomborg connects the energy debate to broader themes of poverty and prosperity, asserting that access to affordable energy is fundamental to lifting people out of poverty and enabling societal progress.

Bjørn Lomborg [13:13]: "Energy underpins our prosperity. If we can lift people out of poverty, they will want to fix their air pollution problems and find cleaner energy sources."

He emphasizes that energy access is pivotal for improving education, healthcare, and overall human flourishing, thereby addressing multiple global challenges simultaneously.

Bjørn Lomborg [13:37]: "Prosperity is what fixes most problems. If you're poor, yes, it sucks from climate change, but it sucks from pretty much everything else."

7. Closing Remarks

In concluding the discussion, Lomborg remains optimistic about the potential for smarter energy policies and technological advancements to address climate and energy challenges effectively.

Bjørn Lomborg [14:32]: "Thank you."

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Conclusion

This episode of The Rubin Report offers a critical examination of the prevailing green energy narrative, presented through Bjørn Lomborg's expert lens. Lomborg systematically deconstructs the economic and practical limitations of solar and wind energy, advocates for the strategic expansion of nuclear power, and underscores the essential role of fossil fuels in sustaining global prosperity. His insights challenge listeners to consider a more balanced and pragmatic approach to energy policy, one that prioritizes economic feasibility and human well-being alongside environmental concerns.

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Notable Quotes:

• Bjørn Lomborg [00:00]: "People will tell you that solar and wind is incredibly cheap. And that's technically true. This is why it's such an insidious argument."

• Bjørn Lomborg [06:16]: "If you run a society that needs to energy or electricity 247 but you only have it sometimes...you need about three months of battery right now. The US has about 10 minutes."

• Bjørn Lomborg [10:45]: "They're basically like prefab houses. Exactly. Yeah. And that is fantastic if we can make it work."

• Bjørn Lomborg [11:20]: "We're a fossil fuel based civilization...if you stop that, 4 billion people would starve to death."

• Bjørn Lomborg [13:13]: "Energy underpins our prosperity. If we can lift people out of poverty, they will want to fix their air pollution problems and find cleaner energy sources."

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Key Takeaways:

1. Economic Realities of Renewable Energy: Solar and wind energy, while superficially cheap, entail significant hidden costs due to their intermittent nature, making them less economically viable on a large scale.

2. Public Perception and Policy Costs: Rising awareness of the high costs associated with current climate policies is leading to a decrease in public hysteria, though this shift is influenced by broader cultural and political dynamics.

3. Battery Storage Limitations: Current battery technology is insufficient to support a society entirely reliant on renewable energy, necessitating substantial investment and innovation.

4. Nuclear Energy Potential: Next-generation nuclear technologies, particularly modular and factory-built plants, offer a promising alternative to fossil fuels and inconsistent renewable sources.

5. Indispensability of Fossil Fuels: Fossil fuels remain critical for maintaining global prosperity and preventing humanitarian crises, underscoring the need for a balanced energy strategy.

6. Energy as a Foundation for Prosperity: Access to affordable and reliable energy is fundamental to alleviating poverty and fostering societal advancements across multiple sectors.

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This summary encapsulates the depth and breadth of Bjørn Lomborg's insights on green energy and climate policy, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the critical issues discussed in this episode of The Rubin Report.

Transcript

[A]

People will tell you that solar and wind is incredibly cheap. And that's technically true. This is why it's such an insidious argument. So everybody has seen this graph of, you know, over time, how solar and wind has just come down in price and they're very cheap right now. So people will tell you solar and wind, some of the cheapest electricity on the planet, but what they don't tell you is, yeah, when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing, but otherwise it's the most expensive power on the planet because it's infinitely costly, you can't get it. And so the reality is, if you actually look at, if you look across the world for how much energy do you get? Sorry, how much electricity do you get from solar and wind and how much is the price? You get a very clear upward sloping situation. You have cheap countries that have virtually no solar and wind and then you just get more and more expensive. So you have China and India down here, you have the US a little higher up, they have your EU all the way up there. And the reality is there's no countries down here that are saying we have lots of solar and wind and cheap power.

[B]

Bjorn Lomberg, you I think are a Rubin Report veteran at this point. This has got to be about the dozen appearance in one form or another, sometimes digital, sometimes on location, sometimes in studio. You've been talking about climate for a long time and basically telling people, in short, calm down. Yeah, it seems to me it's catching on. Suddenly the hysteria, at least from an American perspective, the hysteria around climate does seem like it's calming down. Do you agree with that? And do you think there's sort of an American version of that that might be different than a European version that might be different than some other place?

[A]

So it's very clear that people are starting to realize their current policies have been incredibly costly and maybe we should find another and smarter way. There's certainly a lot of movement and momentum in saying this is not nearly as big as we thought it was. Part of that is caught up in that whole culture war thing. So in some sense I'm not really sure whether people believe it or whether they just sort of parrot it because it fits into whatever their culture war is.

[B]

Wait, let's stick with that for a minute because I think that's super interesting because as people have sort of post Covid. Covid and post exposing lies of the media about Trump or whatever it might be, I think that has helped the argument against the hysteria as it relates to climate change. That's pretty interesting that it just was another bucket of the craziness. In some ways, yes.

[A]

But what I also fear in some ways is that we're very easily being posed in this. It's either the end of the mankind or it's nothing at all. It's not happening. Oh, it's all natural kind of thing. And that's not what the science says. It's sort of inconveniently says, yeah, it's a problem. It's not the end of the world by any means, but it's probably a good thing to look at and be aware of. And I wonder whether the pendulum is going to swing too far in the other direction and we're all just going to say, oh, never mind.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And that would be dumb too.

[B]

There definitely might be an inclination in that, as people have become so tired of nonsense in this area and also.

[A]

Because they've become really annoyed with all the consequences of people saying this is a problem. So we're going to control you every move and we're going to make it harder for you to heat your home or cool your home or drive your car or anything, anything else. And that is just silly. That's never going to work. That's what the election of Donald Trump has shown. You're not going to keep accepting that, and we need to find another and smarter way to deal with it.

[B]

So right now, what are some of the top of mind solutions to all of this with you? I mean, you've written many books about it, you have a laundry list of things that people can sort of personally do and what they should be thinking about. But what have you been just thinking about lately as some of the conversation around this has shifted?

[A]

So I think I want to share with you two important things. One is that we need to recognize that people will tell you that solar and wind is incredibly cheap. And that's technically true. This is why it's such an insidious argument. So everybody has seen this graph of over time, how solar and wind has just come down in price and they're very cheap right now. So people will tell you solar and wind, some of the cheapest electricity on the planet. But what they don't tell you is, yeah, when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing, but otherwise it's the most expensive power on the planet because it's infinitely costly. You can't get it. And so the reality is, if you actually look at, if you look across the world for how much energy do you get? Sorry, how much electricity do you get from solar and wind and how much is the price? You get a very clear upward sloping. You have cheap countries that have virtually no solar and wind and then you just get more and more expensive. So you have China and India down here, you have the US a little higher up, they have EU all the way up there. And the reality is there's no countries down here that are saying we have lots of solar and wind and cheap power that you need to know. So currently you're being sold a tall lie. This is just not true. Now eventually maybe we can make that happen, but don't bet on it. Certainly don't put your entire electricity system that.

[B]

So why wouldn't it be that in sort of a tropical environment, just. Let's just do solar for a moment. Putting aside wind for a second. In a tropical environment where the sun is shining all the time, why wouldn't that just be driving down costs all the time?

[A]

So here's newsfire. Not shining all the time, it's only 12 hours a day. Right. At best. So absolutely. Solar, for instance in California is amazing for when it's on the middle of day, sun is shining, it's very hot, people want to run the air conditioners and there's virtually free power from solar panels. That's great. That's only about 10%. So you should absolutely have that. But it's not going to solve the major part of electricity. And remember, electricity is only a small part of energy use. So yes, there's some sense to doing some solar and likewise with wind. But the point that has been argued for a long time is, oh, this is going to solve everything. No, it's not. And it's not going to solve a very large part. And if you try to do that, you very easily end up with enormously high electricity bills.

[B]

Is some of that just a battery issue? I mean if you just.

[A]

Oh, it's fundamentally the problem is if you run a society that needs to energy or electricity 247 but you only have it sometimes when there's no clouds or when it's windy. And at daytime you need massive backup just to give you a sense of proportion. So they've done the simulations for the US to say what would it take to run the US entirely on solar, entirely on wind. And they estimate, you would imagine, entirely in solar. You just need 12 hours to get over the night. But no, sometimes it'll be cloudy and then you won't have for the next day and sometimes it'll be cloudy for a long time in the wintertime. There's less solar and all that stuff. It turns out that you need about three months of battery right now. The US has about 10 minutes. So you would need so much power, so so much batteries, that it would cost you about a third of the US GDP every year just to literally.

[B]

Get the batteries by the batteries.

[A]

Right now, we believe that you can only. No, no, the infrastructure is not included. Well, it's a rough calculation. I've just taken. What's the wholesale price of what?

[B]

My neighbor's Tesla Powerwall can't run the whole sitting for a month.

[A]

It can't. It can run it. I mean, there's some sense to some of this for private people, especially if you get to sort of scrunch on everybody else's backup system when it runs out. But you can't have a whole society running this. And because these batteries only last about 15 years, you have to keep rebuying them every 15 years. That's what drives up the price so dramatically. So, obviously, you know, the US spends about 3 or 4% of its GDP on buying electricity. It's a very bad deal to have to spend another 33 to get backup.

[B]

Right. What countries are doing better at this now? What countries are incorporating some of the policies and solutions that you've been talking about?

[A]

So, unfortunately, I think we're not quite there yet. I think Trump's intuition can be very, very good that, you know, get rid of a lot of the crap, as he would probably say, and then let's start doing smart stuff. So very clearly you want to make sure that there's a lot more fracking, that there's a lot more gas. Gas is both cheap, it's available, it can help a lot of countries around the world, and it also has a much lower CO2 emission. So this is absolutely the way to go in the short run. This is why the US has been leading the world in cutting its carbon emissions. Not because of Obama, not because of Trump either, but because of a lot of gas producers that have just simply made gas much cheaper than coal. You need to do that also for Europe, also for the rest of the world. Obviously, Europe has put itself in a very precarious situation. We got all addicted on Russian gas. That turned out to be a bad idea. We should get addicted on American gas instead. I mean, ideally, it would be great if we could do our own fracking, but I'm not too hopeful of that just happening just yet in Europe. So that's one thing. We should also be looking at nuclear power. So nuclear Remember promised in the 50s and 60s that it could power the entire world for too cheap to meter kind of thing. And of course that didn't happen to a large extent. That's because of incredible amount of red tape. I would love to see Trump abolish some of that red tape. But I also think.

[B]

Right. Is anyone building nuclear plants right now? I assume they probably are in China.

[A]

They're building a lot in China. Not, not a lot. A lot. Not in the sense that it's really. Everything is big in China. But yes, they are building more nuclear power than anywhere else in the world in China. And again, China can actually make this fairly cheaply. But everywhere else, because we do it in start stop fashion. We don't design it as an industrial product, but rather like this one unique opera house that we're building. And it all has to be perfect. And then of course the costs escalate to the point where third generation nuclear, the current generation is just not commercially viable. And so what you really need is to get fourth generation nuclear power going. So the idea is, and this is still a sales pitch, I'm not totally sold on it, but it's, you know, make these modular small nuclear power plants that you just simply, you get them signed off on on the, on the factory level and then you just churn out 100,000 of them. You sell them everywhere. You just plug them into existing networks and they run. They're built to be inherently safe and there's no nuclear proliferation issue. You can't make a weapon out of it.

[B]

They're basically like prefab houses.

[A]

Exactly. Yeah. And that is fantastic if we can make it work. And of course, remember we've been told before that, you know, this is going to be incredibly cheap. So let's just see. But this is one of the things that we should be looking at. And again, remember, China is doing it, the US and I would hope Europe also. But the US certainly should be making sure that you are ahead in this game.

[B]

Where do you see the future of fossil fuels in all of this? One of the things that Jordan Peterson talks about all the time is for all the people that tell you how much they love humans and humanity, they're the same ones trying to get rid of fossil fuels. And that's the quickest way to get probably hundreds of millions of people to freeze.

[A]

Yes. Still now, I mean, look, we're fossil fuel based civilization. People have this idea that we somehow transcend it. But as you point out, that's just because you don't have any idea where most of the power and most energy comes from. So in 1971, 50 years ago, more than 50 years ago, we got 87% of our energy from fossil fuels. Today it's down to 81%. So yes, we've moved a slight bit down the curve, but we're not, we're still more than 4 fifth based on fossil fuels. Half of humanity lives off of calories that are produced with fossil fuel based fertilizer. Or to put it in the other way, if you stop, as Jordan Peterson points out, if you stop that, 4 billion people would starve to death. This is the reality. Now again, it is probably a good idea to transition this out in this century and find smarter and better technologies. A nuclear could be one. But obviously nuclear is not obvious how you make fertilizer from that. So there's a lot of other challenges built into this. I think the best way to think about this is to say we need to have everything on the table. Again, I don't know what the future. I'd be a lot richer if I knew what the future would be like. So this is much more about just saying, look, make sure you look at all of these things. We invest a little bit of research money in all of these things. Many of them are going to fail, but some of them are not. And those are the ones that are going to power the 21st century.

[B]

Let me ask you one other thing. As it relates to the ARC conference, where do you think the energy conversation falls into the broader concept of what people are talking about here? It seems like most of what people are talking about is sort of geopolitical and there's a lot about immigration and borders and that sort of thing. So I think that it probably has fallen a little bit lower maybe than you'd like, but yet it sits there where everyone knows we have to deal with some of this stuff.

[A]

So anyone you ask always thinks that the thing he or she is doing is the most important thing in the world. And of course I'm going to tell you energy is one of those things. I do a lot of other things that are also incredibly important. But yes, energy is one of those things. It's great that we have a conference where people talk about a lot of different things and there are a lot of different challenges. But energy underpins a lot of what is basically our prosperity. And remember, prosperity is what fixes most problems. If you're poor, yes, it sucks from climate change, but it sucks from pretty much everything else. Just being poor is bad deal. And so the reality is, if we can lift people out of poverty, if we can get them into prosperity, if we can find a way to get people to flourish, they will be much better off in all kinds of way. They will want to fix their air pollution problems and all the other problems with the environment. They will want to find cleaner energy sources. They will want to do all that. But they will also want to have their kids brought up better and better education and better health care and all these other things that matter for human flourishing. So I think, yes, there are lots of other things we need to talk about. I'm glad we do that at this conference. But energy is incredibly important because that's really what underpins our prosperity.

[B]

I'd say good luck continuing this, but I don't think you need luck. It seems like it's working out.

[A]

Thank you.