The Rundown – March 13, 2026

Host: Zaid Admani (Public.com)
Episode Theme:
A snapshot of major market-moving news, including the impact of surging oil prices, the resignation of Adobe’s long-serving CEO, a major shift in Tesla’s China performance, and intriguing stats about the hidden profitability (or lack thereof) in Major League Baseball.

Main Themes & Episode Overview

Zaid Admani quickly unpacks a jam-packed news day:

• Oil surges to $100 a barrel amid historic disruption
• Adobe’s transformational CEO steps down
• Tesla stages a surprise rebound in China’s EV market
• Fertilizer and beauty stocks react to global disruption and consumer tightening
• A shocking fun fact on MLB team profitability

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions

[00:35 – 03:25]

• The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, Nasdaq down 1.8%, led by losses outside energy.
• Energy “the best performing sector” due to oil’s 9% jump, topping $100/barrel.
  • “Largest one day spike since the pandemic.” (00:40)
• Major cause: Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, lays mines.
  • 20% of world’s oil supply trapped.
  • “Largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” – International Energy Agency (01:38)
• US & IEA attempt to calm markets:
  • US to release 172M barrels from reserves; IEA, 400M globally.
  • US issues waivers on sanctioned Russian oil purchases.
• Skepticism: Oil reserves can’t “replace 20 million barrels a day.”
• Market sees disruption as possibly temporary:
  • Front month oil at $100/barrel (April contract)
  • December contract at $75/barrel
• Effects: Ongoing volatility, likely short-term inflation, gas price spikes.

2. Crypto and Gold Snapshot

[03:25 – 03:55]

• Bitcoin and Ethereum up 10% week-over-week:
  • “Bitcoin is trading above $72,000, while Ethereum is back above $2,100.”
• Gold “stuck at the $5,000 mark, not much activity right now.”

3. Adobe CEO Stepping Down

[03:56 – 06:09]

• CEO Shantanu Narayen to step down after 18 years, remain Chairman.
  • “Under Narayan’s leadership, Adobe transformed… from one-time creative software to a subscription-based business.” (04:18)
• Adobe’s metrics under Narayan:
  • Revenue: up 6x to $24B
  • Stock price: up 6x
• Recent struggles:
  • Stock “lost over half its value since peaking in 2021”
  • Down “more than 20% this year alone”
  • “It all has to do with AI.” – Competition from Google, OpenAI, etc.
• “The market is basically pricing Adobe like a company with no growth ahead of it.” (05:39)
  • PE ratio at 11 (“S&P 500 average is 21”)
• Narayan’s take: “AI is going to help Adobe, but the market doesn’t see it that way.”
• Successor “will have to overcome negative sentiment on Wall Street.”

4. Tesla’s Comeback in China

[06:10 – 07:06]

• Tesla’s China-made EV sales up 35% (first two months, 2026): 128,000 vehicles.
  • BYD, largest rival, down 36% (but still sells 3x Tesla).
• “The rebound in Tesla sales numbers in China is encouraging.”
• Tesla gains in Europe:
  • “Registrations for EVs jumped… in February.”
  • Sales previously declined for 2 straight years.
• “Tesla stock… down about 10% in 2026 so far, but… up 60% over the past 12 months.”

5. Fertilizer Stocks React to Hormuz

[07:07 – 08:02]

• “One third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer travels through the Strait of Hormuz.”
  • Fertilizer prices up 30% since war started.
  • North America-based producers rally:
    • “CF Industries… up 76% this year. Mosaic and Nutrient… up 30% on the year as well.”
• Impact:
  • “Great for fertilizer stocks, but not great for American farmers.”
  • Farmers to face higher costs during spring planting.
  • Stock pullback today, but disruption impact remains.

6. Ulta’s Weak Outlook

[08:03 – 08:34]

• Ulta shares drop 10% after weak 2026 guidance.
  • Expects 6–7% sales growth vs. 9.7% in 2025.
• “Shoppers are still buying beauty products, but they’re becoming more price conscious and selective.” – Ulta management
• “Ulta stock has nearly doubled in the last 12 months.”

7. Fun Fact: Baseball’s Hidden Profits

[08:35 – 09:27]

• “The average Major League baseball team is now worth $2.95 billion… up 13% from last year.” – per CNBC
  • Yankees: $9B; Dodgers: $8B
• “The average EBITDA margin for an MLB team is under 2%. You compare that to an NFL team at 20%, NBA at 21%, NHL at 22%.”
  • “These baseball teams are worth billions of dollars, but they’re barely profitable.” (09:16)
• “Aaron Judge baseball card just sold for $5.2 million… not really that guy… Ohtani, I’d get it. Aaron Judge, though—seems like a massive overpay.” (09:24)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the nature of the oil shock:
  “The International Energy Agency is calling this the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” – Zaid (01:38)

• On Adobe’s transformation:
  “There was a time… where you could pay $200 for Photoshop and then have it for life. Now it’s all a monthly subscription, which a lot of people don’t like, but it has been great for Adobe’s business.” – Zaid (04:26)

• On market sentiment toward Adobe:
  “The market is basically pricing Adobe like a company with no growth ahead of it. I personally think it’s a bit of an overreaction.” – Zaid (05:36)

• On MLB profitability:
  “These baseball teams are worth billions of dollars, but they’re barely profitable. Now, I’m not sure if that’s just a sketchy accounting thing they’re doing, but yeah, that number was kind of shocking to see.” – Zaid (09:18)

• Classic Zaid:
  “Aaron Judge, not really that guy, you know? Now you know, if this was a Shohei Ohtani baseball card… I’d get it… seems like a massive overpay to me.” (09:27)

Important Timestamps

• Oil shock explanation & impact – [00:35 – 03:25]
• Crypto and gold snapshot – [03:25 – 03:55]
• Adobe CEO news and analysis – [03:56 – 06:09]
• Tesla’s China recovery – [06:10 – 07:06]
• Fertilizer market disruption – [07:07 – 08:02]
• Ulta’s guidance disappointment – [08:03 – 08:34]
• MLB profitability fun fact – [08:35 – 09:27]

Episode Tone and Style

• Conversational, fast-paced, with a sense of humor and frequent calls for listener engagement (comments, polls, reviews).
• Zaid provides opinionated, investor-focused analysis: practical takes (“I personally think it’s an overreaction”), meme-ready sports banter, and plain language breakdowns of complicated news.

Summary Takeaway

This episode covers seismic changes across major industries—energy, tech, auto, and consumer discretionary—tying together global geopolitical risk (oil and fertilizer), CEO leadership and AI disruption (Adobe), recovery stories (Tesla), and the surprising economics underlying professional sports. Listeners walk away with actionable context for key stock movements and a dose of Zaid’s market skepticism and playful snark.