← The Rundown
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Public.com presents the rundown, your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zaydad Mani and Today is Wednesday, November 12th. In today's episode, we'll tell you about AMD's plans to take on Nvidia. We'll also recap earnings from on OCLO and Circle, then stick around to the end of the show to find out what CEOs are saying about the economy. We got a great show for you today. Let's go. Markets are coming off a weird day of trading. The S P 500 yesterday closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq on the other hand, dropped 0.2%. And the Dow Jones was the star of the show yesterday jumping 1.2%. Still don't care about the Dow though. Yesterday was one of those rare days where tech stocks dropped while the rest of the market rallied. In fact, tech was the only sector in the red yesterday. It looks like investors are still concerned about the AI trade as after a massive run up this year, money is starting to flow out of tech names and into areas like health care and energy. And I think this rotation is healthy because the markets became a little too top heavy and dependent on a few mega cap names. Now we'll have to see if this rotation out of tech into other sectors continues to close out the year. I'm going to be keeping my eye on the equal weight S&P 500 index now. Zooming out. We're still waiting for the official end to the government shutdown. As I said yesterday, the Senate has passed a bill and and now we're waiting on the House to vote on it and President Trump to sign it, which is expected to happen sometime this week. So the government should be reopened by the weekend. That's going to be a sigh of relief to a lot of travelers as we enter the busy holiday season because everything that I've read is that it's chaos at the airports right now. So yeah, the end of the shutdown is adding to investor confidence. And just looking ahead to next week. It is going to be a big one because we're getting earnings from major retailers like Target and Walmart and then we're also getting earnings from Nvidia. So yeah, this week has been a small break in the action, but next week is going to be intense sense, you know, with the vibe shifting on the AI trade that Nvidia earnings next week could make or break it. So as always, we're going to be staying on top of all the major developments. So make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast and tuning in every day to stay in the loop. Let's run through some headlines, starting with AMD CEO Lisa Su came out swinging at AMD's analyst day on Tuesday, saying that insatiable demand for their AI chips could drive 35 annual revenue growth over the next three to five years. Most of that growth will come from their data center AI business, which AMD expects to surge by 60% per year as companies keep throwing money at GPUs. You know, right now Nvidia controls around 90% of the AI chip market, but AMD believes it can finally grab a double digit market share in the next few years. AMD has also increased their outlook for their profit margins, now targeting between 55 to 58%, which is better than what Wall street was expecting. That's actually a pretty big deal because margins have been one of AMD's weak spots lately, especially compared to Nvidia. You know, AMD is really counting on their Mi400 chip to be a big hit. This chip comes out next year and what's cool about this chip is that it can be assembled into a full server racked called Helios. These Helios racks can link up thousands of these AMD GPUs together to act like one giant supercomputer. AMD's hope is that their chip and their server rack technology will take market share from Nvidia. Now I don't think that AM will ever overtake Nvidia when it comes to the AI chip market, but if they can be Pepsi to Nvidia's Coke, I mean that's a solid spot to be in given how large the AI chip market is expected to be. So yeah, AMD has some big plans and investors are going along for the ride. AMD stock has more than doubled this year and the stock is up another 7% today. Let's shift gears away from AI for a bit and talk about a shoe company that's growing like an AI company. The Swiss sneaker brand On Cloud reported record earnings this morning with sales jumping 20% in Q3. The company also raised their sales outlook for the third quarter in a row. They now expect full year sales to grow 34% up from the previous 31 forecast. In fact, ON is doing so good right now that management says they won't be doing any discounts throughout the holiday season, not even on Black Friday. And that's a huge contrast from their competition. Nike says they expect sales to decline this quarter, while Hoka's Parent company Deckers also cut their guidance, so ON is crushing it in the shoe game. But it's not just shoes they're seeing a big growth in. They also saw a 90% jump in apparel sales. So yeah, investors are pretty hyped about this. Growth on stock is up more than 20% this morning following the earnings report. Let me know in the comments on what you guys think about the on cloud shoes versus Hokas or even Nikes now. I've always been a Nike guy, but I really want to get some ons at this point. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. Shares of Oklo are rising even though the nuclear company reported another big loss. Oklo lost $0.20 per share last quarter, which is steeper than the $0.13 per share that analysts were expecting, and it's wider than the $0.08 per share that they lost in Q3 of last year. As for the company's revenues, well, it's still zero. The company has yet to make a single dollar in revenue, but you know, that hasn't scared off investors that are betting on the nuclear revival. Aqu closed shares are up more than 10 this morning and up nearly 400 this year. The company is working on small modular reactors, which generate electricity using nuclear fission. These systems are designed to power everything from local grids to AI data centers, so investors are banking on the nuclear potential. On top of that, Oklo has become a bit of a political darling. The company's CEO was at the White House for the signing of the latest nuclear energy executive order, and they're also part of the Department of Energy's reactor pilot program. We're actually interviewing the CFO of OCLO next month, so we'll be able to get an inside look at what's going on at the company. So make sure you guys are subscribing to the podcast to catch that interview. Now, on the flip side, shares of Circle are falling despite the stablecoin company topping Q3 sales and profit estimates. Circle issues the popular USDC Stablecoin, and they reported total revenue income of $740 million, which is up 66% year over year. On top of that, circulation of the USDC Stablecoin more than doubled to $73.67 billion, which boosted Circle's interest income. Basically, the way that Circle makes money is that the more people that hold usdc, the more interest that Circle earns on the reserves that are backing it. This business model now makes up 96% of Circle's total revenue, but the reason the stock is dropping is because of the rise in Circle's expenses. Circle raised its annual adjusted operating expense forecast to a range of 495 to $510 million, citing investments to build their platform and also increase payroll taxes. Meanwhile, their operating expenses for the quarter surged by 70%. So while the company is seeing strong growth, they're also seeing a big surge in expenses. And that's what's making investors nervous, which is why the stock is down around 8% today. The circle has lost some steam following their IPO. The stock is now down 65% from its peak back in June. People just aren't talking about stable coins like they were back in the summer. Let's wrap the show with a fresh, fun fact. CEOs are feeling pretty good about the economy right now. According to Bloomberg, mentions of the word economic slowdown on company earnings calls just hit their lowest level since 2007. Now keep in mind, 2007 was also the year before the great financial crisis, so that makes me a bit nervous. But for now, things are looking pretty good. It's kind of crazy to see the wild swing in sentiment because just a few months ago there was legit concerns that tariffs would harm company profits, slow down global trade, and no one really talks about that anymore. That hasn't really materialized. In fact, this earnings season, the S P 500 is on track to grow earnings by nearly 15%, with over 81% of companies beating earnings estimates. So despite the tariff uncertainty, companies continue to grow profits. Now, a lot of that is because of big tech players, so that could change if the AI trade starts to fizzle out. On top of that, there's concerns around a weakening labor market, but so far nothing has been proven to be an obstacle for company profits and stock market returns. I'm just hoping that we're not setting up for a sequel to 2008. I wonder who Christian Bale would play in the sequel. I think he'd make a pretty good Sam Altman, right? Well all right guys, that's the rundown for today. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. If you did and you have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a five star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. And if you are listening on Spotify, don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. All that engagement really does help us out and it helps other people find the show. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes, and we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.