The Rundown – January 30, 2026

Host: Zaid Admani
Theme:
Daily stock market update covering major market movers, economic news, and key investment stories. Today's episode spotlights Apple’s blowout iPhone sales, President Trump’s Fed Chair pick, OpenAI’s IPO rumors, and more.

Episode Overview

Zaid Admani runs listeners through a turbulent market day, breaking down key news including massive Apple earnings, the Federal Reserve chair nomination, the evolving AI sector—including OpenAI’s IPO plan—and big moves in storage tech. The episode closes with an intriguing rumor about Elon Musk considering a mega-merger across his companies.

Key Topics & Insights

1. Market Recap: Tech Drives Volatility

[00:31-00:50]

• Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ had dramatic drops before partially recovering.
  • S&P closed down 0.1% after falling 1.5%
  • NASDAQ closed down 0.7%
• "The tech sector was the worst performing yesterday because of a big sell off in Microsoft." (Zaid Admani, 00:44)
• Microsoft dropped 10%, erasing $350 billion in value—the biggest one-day decline in its history.
• Gold and silver prices have been volatile, "trading like cryptocurrencies" (01:23), with rapid drops since recent record highs.
• Bitcoin declined to $82,000, its lowest since April last year.

2. Trump Picks Kevin Warsh as Next Fed Chair

[02:06-03:26]

• President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh, an ex-Fed Governor (2006-2011), to replace Jerome Powell in May.
• Warsh is seen as a safe but nuanced pick:
  • Has a "hawkish" inflation history but recently criticized the Fed for not cutting rates faster.
  • “There’s kind of a mixed signal coming from Kevin Warsh right now.” (Zaid Admani, 02:50)
• Senate confirmation still pending.

3. Apple's Blockbuster Quarter...But Investors Hesitate

[03:53-06:18]

• Apple’s Q4 revenue soared 16%, hitting nearly $144B (estimates were $138B).
• “It was all thanks to the iPhone. iPhone sales were up 23% to $85 billion. In fact, this was the best iPhone growth in the December quarter in over a decade.” (Zaid Admani, 04:22)
• Tim Cook cited “staggering” demand for iPhone 17, now facing a supply crunch.
• China sales, including Taiwan & Hong Kong, surged 38% to $25.5B. Notably, Apple set an all-time high for iPhone upgrades in China, with double-digit brand-switcher growth.
• Despite these numbers, Apple stock dipped 1%.
  • Caution stems from rising RAM/memory costs (5x increase due to AI data center demand), projected margin pressures, and chip supply constraints as TSMC favors higher-paying AI customers (Nvidia, AMD).
  • Apple missed targets on non-iPhone segments—Macs, wearables, services.
• “You add the fact that Apple missed revenue estimates for their other business segments like Macs, wearables, and services, you can see why investors are a bit cautious despite the blowout quarter.” (Zaid Admani, 06:00)
• Additional investor anxiety: Rising input costs and pressure for a competitive AI-powered Siri.

4. OpenAI Races Toward IPO Amid AI Hype

[06:19-07:22]

• Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI is prepping for a Q4 IPO, meeting with major banks.
• Competition pressure from Anthropic:
  • Anthropic is likely to go public soon and has strong enterprise momentum—projected to break even by 2028, two years ahead of OpenAI.
• “I think OpenAI is trying to go public sooner rather than later to raise as much money as possible before investors turn all their attention to Anthropic.” (Zaid Admani, 06:57)
• OpenAI seeks to raise $100B at an $830B valuation; Amazon may invest up to $50B.
  • Amazon is also backing Anthropic—“Amazon is basically hedging its bets and backing both competitors.” (Zaid Admani, 07:16)

5. Stocks on the Move: Sandisk & KLA

[07:23-08:38]

• Sandisk:
  • Stock surges 20%+ after blowout earnings and strong guidance.
  • AI data center revenue jumped 64%.
  • “What’s really jaw dropping is the company’s guidance… Sandisk told investors to expect up to $4.8 billion in revenue, nearly 65% more than what Wall Street was expecting.” (Zaid Admani, 07:56)
  • Sandisk stock is up 1,300% over the past year.
• KLA:
  • Despite beating on earnings, stock fell 7%.
  • Facing higher input costs and tight key component supply; threatens margins.

6. Elon Musk's Possible Mega-Merger (Fun Fact)

[08:41-09:16]

• Reuters reports Musk is considering merging SpaceX with his AI venture XAI before the SpaceX IPO.
  • Would unite SpaceX, Starlink, Grok, and X (Twitter) under one corporate roof.
  • Admani wonders about SpaceX investor sentiment, noting SpaceX leads its field while XAI does not.
  • Cathie Wood (Ark Invest) will appear on the podcast soon to discuss this.

Notable Quotes

• On Microsoft’s Record Loss:
  “Microsoft stock tanked 10% yesterday, which is huge for a company this size. In fact, Microsoft lost over $350 billion in market cap, which is the single biggest one day decline in history.” ([00:42-00:51])

• On Apple’s China Comeback:
  “Tim Cook said they set an all time record for iPhone upgrades in mainland China, and they also saw double digit growth in people switching from other phone brands to the iPhone.” ([05:09-05:21])

• On AI’s Impact Across Industries:
  “Clearly AI is not about GPUs anymore. Memory and storage are becoming just as important, and that’s why Sandisk stock is up more than 20% at the time of this recording.” ([08:10-08:22])

• On Uncertainty Around Apple’s Future:
  “I think it’ll be a very interesting year for Apple; you know, iPhone demand has never been stronger, but… the pressure to finally release a functioning AI powered Siri is making investors a bit nervous.” ([06:18-06:28])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Markets Recap/NASDAQ Crash — 00:31-02:05
• Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair — 02:06-03:26
• Apple Earnings Breakdown — 03:53-06:18
• OpenAI’s IPO Plans — 06:19-07:22
• Sandisk & KLA Stock Moves — 07:23-08:38
• Elon Musk Merger Rumor — 08:41-09:16

Tone & Style

• Upbeat, accessible, and focused on practical implications for investors.
• Occasional asides (“that was a crazy day”, “it’s absolutely wild”, “I do wonder how SpaceX investors feel about this though”).
• Balanced outlook: acknowledges both hype and risks, especially in AI and big tech.

Summary Takeaways

• Market volatility is being driven by tech earnings and sector rotations. Microsoft and crypto saw steep declines, while metals fell after a rally.
• Apple crushed earnings expectations thanks to iPhone 17 and China growth, but the outlook is clouded by supply chain pressures and higher costs.
• Kevin Warsh’s nomination to Fed Chair reflects a balance between hawkishness and political expectations for rate cuts.
• OpenAI and Anthropic are locked in an arms race, with OpenAI rushing to IPO and Amazon hedging its bets on both sides.
• AI’s hunger for storage and memory is creating surprising winners (Sandisk), while traditional chip-equipment makers like KLA are feeling the squeeze.
• Elon Musk may radically reshape his empire with a mega-merger; investor reactions remain to be seen.

Missed the show? This summary highlights the news and analysis you need to stay ahead of the markets.