The Rundown – Episode Summary
Podcast: The Rundown by Public.com
Episode Title: China Cracks Down on Nvidia Chips, Kalshi Expands to 140+ Countries
Release Date: Friday, October 10, 2025
Host: Zaid Admani
Episode Overview
In this fast-paced daily market update, Zaid Admani brings listeners the biggest stock market headlines and developments in under 10 minutes. The central topics are China's escalating crackdown on U.S. chipmakers (Nvidia and Qualcomm), Kalshi's global expansion in prediction markets, and notable company movers in the AI and apparel sectors. The episode closes with a milestone update on OpenAI’s Sora app and a preview of upcoming deep-dive interviews on AI infrastructure.
Main Discussion Points & Insights
1. Market Recap and Context
- Markets lost momentum on Thursday; S&P 500 down 0.3% and Nasdaq down 0.1%—small setbacks but the year remains strong.
- Year-to-date:
- S&P 500: +15%
- Nasdaq: +20%
- Six months after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs:
- S&P 500: +30%
- Nasdaq: +50%
- Tariff impact: While initial reactions were intense, markets have since brushed them off. Zaid notes:
"Tariff news barely causes the markets to move these days." (02:00)
- Inflation Data Delay: Upcoming CPI report postponed due to government shutdown, possibly adding volatility.
- Upcoming market catalysts: corporate earnings, delayed data, Fed meeting at month’s end.
2. China’s Crackdown on Nvidia & Qualcomm
- Customs crackdown: Chinese authorities target Nvidia’s chip imports, including the “H20” chip designed to comply with U.S. export rules (03:00).
- Roughly $1B in high-end AI chips reportedly smuggled into China between May-July.
- China’s Positioning:
- Tech companies like ByteDance and Alibaba told by officials to stop ordering Nvidia chips.
- Government urges shift to domestic chips, notably Huawei.
- Zaid observes:
"This is a clear signal that China is doubling down on tech self reliance even in the AI race." (04:15)
- Retaliation steps:
- New port fees on U.S.-made ships.
- Antitrust probe into Qualcomm.
- Seen as a counter to U.S. tariffs and port fees.
- Stock impact:
- Despite these moves, Nvidia’s stock is rising at the time of recording.
- U.S./China officials expected to meet again in Europe.
"I think both sides are trying to gain leverage in the trade negotiations... So we'll see what ultimately ends up happening." (05:00)
3. Prediction Markets: Kalshi's $300M Raise and Global Expansion
- Kalshi: Raises $300M at a $5B valuation, planning to expand to 140 countries (05:40).
- Comparison to rivals:
- Polymarket received $2B from NYSE owners earlier this week.
- How it works:
- Users trade event contracts (e.g. elections, weather, sports).
- Stats & Growth:
- Kalshi now holds over 60% market share.
- Trading volume on track for $50B this year—a 160x increase from $300M last year.
- Fueling growth:
- NFL-related contracts, which position Kalshi as a quasi-sports betting platform—but with event contracts sidestepping state-by-state regulation.
- Zaid:
"That's turned Kalshi essentially into a competitor to apps like FanDuel and DraftKings without the regulatory hurdles because they use events contracts as a loophole." (06:55)
- Regulatory outlook:
- Minimal pushback expected; Donald Trump Jr. advises both Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Zaid humorously:
"Fun fact, he also advises Polymarket, which is weird. But yeah, good chance both these companies aren’t going to have any issues with regulators anytime soon." (07:25)
- Outlook: Prediction platforms poised for further growth.
4. Stocks Making Big Moves
Applied Digital
- Earnings Beat & Big Deal:
- Shares surge 25%+ after positive earnings and a new lease to CoreWeave (08:00).
- Project: 150 megawatts at new Polaris Forge 1 campus in North Dakota.
- Business Model:
- Builds and operates critical AI data centers; leases to companies like CoreWeave, which in turn supply AI giants (OpenAI, Microsoft).
- Projected to generate $11B in contracted revenue.
- Notable quote:
"Applied Digital is another one of those companies that's becoming critical to the AI supply chain." (08:20)
- Stock up 230% for the year.
Levi Strauss
- Negative Move on Tariffs:
- Stock drops 7% after profit margin warning.
- Majority of products sourced from tariff-hit countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan).
- Tariffs to shave ~1.3% from gross margins.
- Managing response by securing inventory and raising prices.
- Despite this, shares are still up 30% year to date.
- Zaid’s context:
"If you zoom out on Levi’s stock chart, it’s up nearly 30% for the year. So they’re having a pretty good year so far." (09:30)
5. OpenAI’s Sora App: Viral Momentum & Host’s Review
- Milestone:
- 1M downloads in under 5 days—faster than ChatGPT’s original launch.
- Still invite-only, iPhone-exclusive, and limited to North America, yet #1 on the App Store.
- Zaid’s personal reaction:
- Initially skeptical, found it "kind of fun" after trying.
"I wanted to hate this thing so bad, but it's kind of fun. All right, there was definitely some banger AI videos on there." (10:25)
- Predicts Sora is aiming to compete with Meta on social media.
- Unclear if this will remain viral or fade quickly.
- Still considers himself “anti-AI slob”—his signature humorous self-deprecating take.
"Now, the novelty has worn off after a couple days. I'm not sure how much longer I'm going to use it..." (10:50)
6. Upcoming Episodes & Weekend Preview
- Deep Dive Coming Up:
- Interview with Kyla Scanlon and Alex Heath on AI and infrastructure.
- Special weekend episode on nuclear stocks.
- Zaid hypes the guests and suggests tuning in for a broader look at AI, tech, and the economy.
Memorable Quotes & Timestamps
- "Tariff news barely causes the markets to move these days."
— Zaid Admani [02:00] - "This is a clear signal that China is doubling down on tech self reliance even in the AI race."
— Zaid Admani [04:15] - "That's turned Kalshi essentially into a competitor to apps like FanDuel and DraftKings without the regulatory hurdles because they use events contracts as a loophole."
— Zaid Admani [06:55] - "Applied Digital is another one of those companies that's becoming critical to the AI supply chain."
— Zaid Admani [08:20] - "I wanted to hate this thing so bad, but it's kind of fun." (on OpenAI Sora)
— Zaid Admani [10:25]
Useful Timestamps
| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------|---------------| | Market Context & Performance Review | 00:30–03:00 | | China Cracks Down on Nvidia & Qualcomm | 03:00–06:00 | | Kalshi’s Expansion & Prediction Markets | 06:00–07:50 | | Stocks on the Move: Applied Digital & Levi | 08:00–09:40 | | OpenAI Sora App Milestone & Host Review | 10:00–11:30 | | Weekend Preview / Upcoming Episodes | 11:35–End |
Summary for New Listeners
This episode packs a rapid-fire rundown of major market news, focusing on:
- China’s increasingly aggressive stance toward U.S. chipmakers and its implications for the global AI arms race.
- The explosive growth of prediction markets led by Kalshi, their regulatory maneuvering, and global ambitions.
- Key stock moves, including a huge AI infrastructure win for Applied Digital and tariff trouble for Levi Strauss.
- A look at OpenAI’s Sora app going viral, with first-hand impressions from the host.
Listeners get timely, candid analysis, memorable soundbites, and a clear roadmap for what to watch next week in the markets and tech.