The Rundown — Deep Dive: 4 Space Stocks to Watch as SpaceX Nears IPO

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: December 27, 2025
Length: ~13 minutes
Theme: A focused exploration of why the space sector is booming—and which public space stocks could benefit most as SpaceX approaches its potential record-setting IPO.

Episode Overview

This weekend deep dive unpacks the surging excitement in the space economy, examining both macro-level drivers (like a potential SpaceX IPO, government action, and AI infrastructure in orbit) and specific public companies poised to ride the wave. Zaid Admani outlines both the opportunities and risks in the sector, spotlights four particularly notable stocks for 2026, and closes with a caution about getting caught up in the hype.

Key Drivers Fueling the Space Sector (00:00-05:07)

1. SpaceX's Game-Changing Path to IPO

• SpaceX’s Growth:
  • Valued at $400 billion (summer 2025), then $800 billion (November), now reportedly eyeing a $1.5 trillion IPO in late 2026.
  • "SpaceX has a near monopoly on the space economy right now." (Zaid, 01:28)
• Market Domination:
  • 84% of US launches and 90% of space payloads in 2024 attributed to SpaceX.
  • Operates thousands of Starlink satellites.
• Investor Sentiment:
  • The looming IPO is pushing investors to seek “the next SpaceX”—driving up values of smaller public space companies.

2. The Space-AI Megatrend

• AI Data Centers in Space:
  • Tech giants are exploring building data centers in orbit for access to 24/7 solar power and superior cooling.
  • SpaceX aims to raise funds for this purpose via IPO.
• Energy Efficiency Rationale:
  • On Earth, data centers consume up to 12% of US electricity by 2030; cooling alone can eat 40% of power needs.
  • In space, cooling would be much more efficient—no massive water or AC requirements.
• Expert Input — Timeline for Space Data Centers:
  • "That's like this, you know, 24 to 36 months thing for SpaceX, I think."
    (Eric Berger, Space Reporter, interviewed by Zaid, 03:33)
  • Berger expects test satellites for these AI data centers within the next 1-2 years.
• Host’s Skepticism:
  • "Personally, I'm still skeptical ... like how would you do any maintenance up there if something broke?" (Zaid, 02:50)

3. Government Catalyst

• New Policy:
  • President Trump signs 'American Space Superiority' executive order, slashing red tape and boosting space investment to outpace China.
  • US goal: land Americans back on the Moon by 2028.
  • Implication: More government contracts for private space companies.

Four Space Stocks to Watch in 2026

1. EchoStar (05:08-07:11)

• Not a 'true' space company:
  • Mainly known for DishTV, Sling TV, and Boost Mobile.
• Unique Exposure to SpaceX:
  • Sold wireless spectrum licenses to SpaceX for up to $8.5B in cash and $11B+ in SpaceX stock (pre-IPO valuations).
  • As SpaceX revalues higher, EchoStar’s stake appreciates—potentially boosting its stock price.
• Caveats:
  • Core business (satellite TV/comm) is declining.
  • "Pretty much the only reason to be invested in EchoStar, because EchoStar's core business ... that's not doing so great." (Zaid, 06:38)

2. Rocket Lab (07:12-09:03)

• Position:
  • #2 in private rocket launches behind SpaceX.
  • Focused on smaller satellite payloads; also offers satellite design and construction.
• Recent Milestones:
  • 21 launches completed in 2025 (record year).
  • Awarded $816M Pentagon contract to build 18 satellites for missile warning/tracking (2029 launches).
• Growth and Risks:
  • Satellite revenue = 70% of business; launches = 30%.
  • Developing the heavier-lift Neutron rocket (first launch Q1 2026).
  • Not profitable, still burning cash—but holds $500M+ in backlog.
  • "They're competing with SpaceX, which has the brand name and also a 15-year head start." (Zaid, 08:51)

3. Intuitive Machines (09:04-10:24)

• Niche:
  • The “moon play”: focuses on lunar missions, not launch vehicles.
• Milestones:
  • First commercial company to land on the Moon (2024).
• Opportunities:
  • Manufacturing lunar landers; providing data/comm services; competing for NASA’s lunar terrain vehicle contract (decision expected early 2026).
• Risks:
  • Execution issues: 2 missions where landers tipped over.
  • Heavy dependency on winning NASA contract—for both revenue and reputation.
  • "A lot is riding on Intuitive Machines winning this contract from NASA." (Zaid, 10:16)

4. AST SpaceMobile (10:25-12:34)

• Vision:
  • Space-based cellular network connecting directly to regular smartphones.
• Progress:
  • Launched first 5 “Bluebird” satellites in 2024.
  • Bluebird 6 (largest so far) launched in December 2025; aims for 45-60 satellites in 2026.
• Business Model:
  • Partners with carriers (AT&T, Verizon, etc.) for coverage in dead zones, splitting revenue 50-50.
  • Access to nearly 3 billion subscribers via partnerships.
• Risks:
  • Still low revenue ($14M last quarter); burning billions to deploy network.
  • SpaceX’s Starlink is a looming competitor—already has thousands of satellites and similar ambitions.
  • "AST stock has more than tripled in 2025, but we'll have to see if they can keep that rally going in 2026." (Zaid, 11:38)

Final Thoughts & Cautions (12:35-13:18)

• Hype vs. Reality:
  • Space sector innovations dropping launch costs and enabling “real businesses and revenues.”
  • But: "Space is really hard ... Rockets explode, satellites don't deploy properly ... A space stock could lose half its value overnight." (Zaid, 12:44)
• Valuation Warning:
  • Many companies are pre-profit, burning large amounts of cash—potential for volatility and sharp declines.
  • Cites failed investor fads (EVs, cannabis) as cautionary tales.
  • "I think the space race will play out the same way. The industry will be dominated by a handful of companies and I feel pretty confident that SpaceX will be one of the winners, probably the biggest winner. But after that, it's hard to say ... Some of these companies will literally head to the moon and the others will crash and burn." (Zaid, 13:00)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "It's easy to see why investors are hyped about SpaceX ... has a near monopoly on the space economy right now." (Zaid, 01:30)
• "Personally, I'm still skeptical about the whole data centers in space thing. Like, how would you do any maintenance up there if something broke?" (Zaid, 02:50)
• "That's like this, you know, 24 to 36 months thing for SpaceX, I think." (Eric Berger, Interviewee, 03:33)
• "EchoStar has more than $11 billion in SpaceX stock ... as SpaceX's valuation climbs ahead of its IPO, EchoStar stock could climb with it." (Zaid, 06:30)
• "A lot is riding on Intuitive Machines winning this contract from NASA." (Zaid, 10:16)
• "Space is really hard ... A space stock could lose half its value overnight." (Zaid, 12:44)
• "Some of these companies will literally head to the moon and the others will crash and burn." (Zaid, 13:10)

Segment Timestamps

• 00:00 — Introduction and setting the stage for the episode
• 00:45 — Why the space sector is hot—SpaceX, AI revolution, government interest
• 03:33 — Eric Berger on timeline for space AI data centers
• 04:10 — US government’s space push (new executive order)
• 05:08 — Deep dive into the 4 space stocks:
  • EchoStar (05:08)
  • Rocket Lab (07:12)
  • Intuitive Machines (09:04)
  • AST SpaceMobile (10:25)
• 12:35 — Big picture risks, sector warnings, and closing thoughts

Takeaway

The space sector’s new bull run is being powered by groundbreaking developments at SpaceX, government backing, and the possible future of AI infrastructure in orbit. But alongside opportunity, enormous risks remain—especially as high valuations outpace current revenues for many public companies. Investors eyeing 2026’s space stock standouts should be excited, but also wary: only a few players may ultimately “make it to the moon.”