The Rundown: Deep Dive – 5 Predictions for Markets in 2026

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: January 3, 2026
Theme:
In this special deep dive, Zaid Admani and the team lay out their boldest predictions for the stock market in 2026. Covering sectors poised for breakout, the fate of Big Tech, IPO excitement, and controversial takes on the AI boom, the episode arms investors with insight and opinion ahead of another fast-moving year.

Wall Street’s 2026 Optimism—And Reasons for Caution

[00:00–02:03]

• Wall Street is united in optimism: Every one of 21 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg expects the S&P 500 to rise in 2026.
• S&P 500 average target: About 8,000 points, a projected 16% gain.
• Expected drivers:
  • Strong corporate earnings
  • More Fed rate cuts
  • The AI boom continuing
• Host’s caution: Zaid notes that “when everyone agrees on something, I start to get nervous … there are a couple reasons to be nervous.”
  • Cracks in the labor market
  • Inflation still above target
  • Fears of an AI bubble

Prediction 1: Healthcare Will Be 2026’s Best-Performing Sector

[02:03–05:11]

• Healthcare lagged in 2025: Up 12%, versus the S&P's 16%. Zaid predicts a turnaround.
• Reason 1: GLP-1 weight loss pills
  • Eli Lilly (Manjaro, Zeppelin) and Novo Nordisk (Ozempic, Wegovy) dominate the field.
  • Pills replacing injections: “Novo Nordisk just got FDA approval to sell the pill version of Wegovy… expected to hit the market in the US any day now.”
  • Pills cheaper to produce and more appealing to consumers, likely to expand market dramatically.
  • “There’s a world where these GLP-1 pills are going to end up like statins”—widely used and routine.
• Reason 2: AI innovation in pharma
  • AI speeding up, cheapening drug development—expected to boost margins “not just for big pharma giants, but also for smaller biotech.”
  • “Investors like a good narrative, and I can’t think of a better narrative than magic weight loss pills and AI innovation.”
• Demographic tailwind: Aging population means healthcare spending will keep climbing.

Prediction 2: 2026 Will Be a Historic Year for IPOs

[05:11–07:15]

• 2025 saw a resurgence: Notable public debuts (Figma, Circle, Medline).
• 2026 to be “at a completely different level”:
  • Potential blockbusters: SpaceX, Anthropic, Databricks, OpenAI, Waymo.
  • “SpaceX is already getting a ton of hype… Analysts are projecting it could be the biggest IPO of all time.”
  • Motivation: Companies want to raise as much cash as possible “while the bull market is still in full swing.”
• Valuations still high: Especially in AI—window to raise money may not last.
• Ambitious funding needs:
  • “OpenAI is committed to spending hundreds of billions… SpaceX is trying to build AI data centers in space… Waymo is expanding.”
• Prediction: “Investment bankers to be pretty busy this year” as companies rush to public markets.

Prediction 3: The Magnificent Seven Will Lag the Market

[07:15–09:05]

• Controversial call: Zaid forecasts the “Max 7” (Magnificent Seven Big Tech stocks) will underperform the rest of the S&P 500 in 2026.
• Market leadership to shift:
  • Value and hype have gone to “chip makers, the model builders, and the cloud providers.”
  • In 2026, “the value is going to shift to the companies using AI,” e.g. banks, retailers, pharma, industrials.
  • These “boring stocks” will gain productivity and have more attractive valuations.
• Rotation already underway:
  • “Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025… a sign we’re already seeing a rotation out of tech.”
• Hot take: At some point, a Big Tech CFO (Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft) will “look at their balance sheet and say that they need to cut back on capex.”
  • “If one of these hyperscalers announces that they’re slowing down their AI spending… that is going to send a shockwave through the market.”
  • AI-sensitive stocks could take the biggest hit.
  • “Let’s just hope that I’m really wrong about this”—Zaid acknowledges his own tech exposure.

Bonus Team Predictions

[09:05–10:54]

Connor's Prediction: Google Becomes World’s Most Valuable Company

• Google currently #3: At $3.8 trillion (behind Nvidia at $4T+).
• Bullish factors:
  • Strong Gemini AI adoption: “Grown from 450 million users in July to up to 650 million users now.”
  • Moving into hardware: “Plans to launch their new AI smart glasses soon… partnership with Warby Parker.”
  • Waymo’s expansion: “Expanding to 20 new markets this year.”
  • AI chips (TPUs): Meta rumored to rent them, threatening Nvidia’s dominance.
• Zaid agrees it’s “a good take” for 2026.

Mike's Prediction: Sam Altman Gets Fired from OpenAI

• Spicy take: Zaid introduces Mike’s written rant: “Mike dropping a spicy prediction for 2026. I don’t think this will happen, but it’s not a bad take.”
• Key points and red flags:
  • Altman “declared a code red internally, ordering a greater focus as rivals like Google catch up.”
  • Enterprise market competition from Anthropic.
  • Financial concerns: $207 billion funding shortfall by 2030; $1.4 trillion in CapEx plans (HSBC estimate).
  • “Pressure has forced OpenAI to scramble into ads and talk about adult content like it’s some kind of flex.”
  • PR missteps: Lackluster GPT-5 rollout, tense interviews, ongoing drama with Elon Musk.
  • “Altman would be an easy scapegoat if things start to get wobbly” in 2026.
  • Mike recalls Altman’s 2023 firing and rapid reinstatement: “This time he’ll be gone for good.”
  • Zaid: “Ever since then, the vibe has shifted on Sam Altman and OpenAI. And, yeah, maybe he gets fired.”

Memorable Quotes:

“When everyone agrees on something, I start to get nervous.”
—Zaid Admani, [00:57]

“I can’t think of a better narrative than magic weight loss pills and AI innovation.”
—Zaid Admani, [04:21]

“If one of these hyperscalers announces that they’re slowing down their AI spending… that is going to send a shockwave through the market.”
—Zaid Admani, [08:44]

“The company is potentially facing a funding shortfall of approximately $207 billion by 2030 to cover the enormous cost of its planned AI infrastructure expansion.”
—Mike, [10:21], via Zaid

“When Altman was fired in 2023—which a lot of people forget—he made the way back just a week later. This time he’ll be gone for good.”
—Mike, [10:34], via Zaid

Key Timestamps

• 00:00 – Introduction & Wall Street consensus for 2026
• 02:03 – Prediction 1: Healthcare’s breakout potential
• 05:11 – Prediction 2: Massive wave of IPOs on deck
• 07:15 – Prediction 3: Magnificent Seven’s possible decline
• 09:05 – Prediction 4: Google’s rise to market cap king (Connor)
• 10:10 – Prediction 5: Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO (Mike)
• 10:54 – Final thoughts and host reflections

Tone and Takeaways

Zaid leads with an upbeat, skeptical optimism, blending analysis with humor and real-world anecdotes. The episode is a quick but packed ride through sector-specific calls, warnings about overexuberance in AI, and spicy personal predictions—making it an engaging listen for both the cautious and the bullish investor.

For further insight, listen to the full episode and join the predictions conversation at Public.com’s Rundown.