The Rundown – Deep Dive: Can Hims Survive the GLP-1 Crackdown?

Date: March 14, 2026
Host: Zaid Admani (Public.com)

Episode Overview

This episode delivers an in-depth analysis of Hims, the online health platform known for its rapid growth and recent legal, regulatory, and business model challenges centered on the GLP-1 weight loss drug market. Zaid walks listeners through Hims’ meteoric rise, the risks it faced amid FDA and pharmaceutical company crackdowns, and new developments that may secure its future in digital healthcare. The discussion covers the company’s history, the bull and bear cases for the stock, and key partnerships and risks moving forward.

The Hims Backstory and Growth Trajectory

• Beginnings as a Telehealth Pioneer

  • Hims was founded in 2017 during a telehealth boom, initially focusing on discrete health issues like hair loss, ED, and skincare. (00:40)
  • Zaid: "HIMSS built their brand by focusing on the awkward healthcare stuff... It was a huge upgrade from the traditional experience." (01:14)
  • Sleek branding and direct-to-door delivery drove quick adoption.

• Early Business Success

  • Revenue grew from $26M in 2018 to $272M in 2021—the year it went public. (01:35)
  • The business model appealed to people seeking convenience and discreteness in healthcare.

The GLP-1 Weight Loss Boom (2024–2025)

• Entry into GLP-1 Market

  • In 2024, Hims pivoted heavily into the GLP-1 weight loss category as drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro exploded in public popularity. (02:15)
  • GLP-1s, originally for diabetes, proved “incredibly effective for weight loss.” (02:33)

• Exploiting Regulatory Loopholes

  • FDA shortages allowed compounding pharmacies, including Hims, to make "copycat" versions of popular GLP-1 drugs. Hims sold these personalized treatments for ~$200/month versus Ozempic’s $1,000/month price tag. (03:07)
  • Result: Revenues in 2024 jumped 69% to $1.5B; subscribers up 45% to 2.2M. Stock surged to an all-time high of $69 by February 2025. (03:39)

• Peak and Backlash

  • The Super Bowl ad in Feb 2025 symbolized Hims' high-water mark. (04:00)
  • Turning Point: Two weeks later, the FDA removed semaglutide from its shortage list, undermining Hims’ legal grounds for its compound drugs. The stock dropped 25% in one day. (04:30)
  • Zaid: “That was a huge problem for HIMS because that shortage was the legal justification they had for selling their cheaper compounded GLP1s.” (04:44)

Legal and Regulatory Crackdown (2025–2026)

• Continued Risk-Taking

  • Hims kept selling under a personalized-compounding loophole.
  • Novo Nordisk, maker of Ozempic, threatened legal action.

• Escalation and Lawsuit

  • In early 2026, after Novo Nordisk launched the first oral GLP-1 pill (Wegovy), Hims released their own $49/month pill, copying Novo. (06:02)
  • FDA threatened a crackdown. Hims removed its pill product; Novo Nordisk filed a lawsuit for patent infringement and unlawful promotion. (06:27)

• Stock and Business Impact

  • Hims’ stock fell by half at its lowest. Loss of its “biggest growth engine” created uncertainty. (07:01)

Turning Point: Novo Nordisk-Hims Partnership (March 2026)

• Surprise Resolution

  • March 9: Novo Nordisk dropped its lawsuit, partnering with Hims instead.
  • Hims to sell FDA-approved Ozempic and Wegovy directly on its platform.
  • Zaid: “Honestly, it seems like Hims got the better end of this deal because these compounded GLP1s...were facing a legal and regulatory ban anyways.” (08:01)
  • Stock price jumped 50% after announcement—best week ever for the company. (08:23)
  • Wall Street analysts upgraded the stock following the deal.

• Regulatory Approval

  • FDA Commissioner Marty McCary publicly praised the agreement, calling it "a win for the American people" and highlighting Hims’ commitment to affordable pricing. (08:42)
  • Zaid: “That is a very sharp contrast from just weeks earlier, when the FDA was threatening to take decisive steps against companies mass marketing illegal copycat drugs…” (09:09)

Bull Case for Hims (09:40–11:30)

• Partnership removes existential risk: FDA and Novo Nordisk now support Hims’ core business.
• Solid Core Metrics:
  • 2025 revenue: $2.35B (up from $1.5B in 2024)
  • Subscribers: 2.5M, with weight loss user base up 70% last quarter.
• Expansion Beyond Weight Loss:
  • CEO Andrew Dudham cited progress in testosterone/hormonal therapy and lab testing.
  • Women’s brand “Hers” grew 100% in 2025, nearly $1B in sales.
• Large Addressable Market:
  • Zaid: “More than 70% of Americans are overweight...plenty more room to capture...just in the weight loss category.” (10:59)
• International Growth:
  • Acquisitions in Europe (Zava), Canada (Live Well), and plans to enter Australia/Japan. (11:23)

Bear Case and Risks (11:32–13:35)

• Potential Revenue/Margin Decline
  • New model: Hims becomes a distributor of branded GLP-1 drugs, booking only a cut of revenue—could drop per-user revenue. (11:40)
  • Key risk: Revenue guidance could be cut as compound patients migrate to branded drugs. (12:03)
• Partnership Fragility
  • Novo Nordisk has terminated similar deals before. The new CEO says Hims must "fundamentally change" its model or risk renewed legal action. (12:33)
• Competition
  • Rivals like Ro (platform), Eli Lilly (Lilly Direct) compete directly.
  • Lilly's Zepbound/Mounjaro are more popular than Ozempic/Wegovy.
• Concentration Risk
  • Hims heavily reliant on weight loss; other treatments still in early stages.
• Stock Performance and Trust Issues
  • Still down 60% from Feb 2025 highs; CEO stock sales ($44M total) during turmoil, though preplanned, have hurt perception. (13:20)
  • Zaid: “It’s not a great look when your CEO is dumping their stock when the company's business model was under fire. So rebuilding that trust for HIMS could take time.” (13:38)

Host’s Final Thoughts (13:55–14:24)

• Zaid’s cautious optimism:
  • “The company is starting to figure things out...the Novo Nordisk partnership is a big deal and a sigh of relief for the company.”
  • Points out rapid expansion, both in treatment categories and internationally.
  • Raises concern about high valuation (45x earnings), limited upside per analyst targets, and the business model now changing significantly.
  • Emphasizes the importance of watching the next few earnings reports.

Memorable Quotes

• “They provided treatment for hair loss and ED and skin care issues. The brand was very sleek and modern...a huge upgrade from the traditional experience.” (Zaid, 01:12)
• “That was a huge problem for HIMS because that shortage was the legal justification they had for selling their cheaper compounded GLP1s.” (Zaid, 04:44)
• “Honestly, it seems like Hims got the better end of this deal because these compounded GLP1s they were selling were facing a legal and regulatory ban anyways.” (Zaid, 08:01)
• “That alone removes the single biggest existential risk hanging over the stock.” (Zaid, 09:19)
• “Right now, they have 2.5 million users. But given that more than 70% of Americans are overweight, there’s plenty more room to capture more of the total addressable market.” (Zaid, 10:59)
• “The market is worried that HIMS has all their eggs in one basket.” (Zaid, 13:15)
• “It’s not a great look when your CEO is dumping their stock when the company's business model was under fire.” (Zaid, 13:38)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 00:40–01:40 — Hims’ founding and early model.
• 02:15–03:38 — GLP-1 weight loss entry and explosive growth.
• 04:00–05:05 — Peak moment: Super Bowl ad and subsequent FDA announcement.
• 06:02–06:45 — Copycat oral GLP-1 pill launch and immediate FDA crackdown.
• 08:01–08:42 — Novo Nordisk partnership announced; stock surges.
• 09:40–11:30 — Bull case analysis.
• 11:32–13:35 — Bear case and risk factors.
• 13:55–14:24 — Zaid’s personal take and summary.

Summary

This episode provides a fast-paced, transparent, and balanced overview of Hims’ volatile past year: from rapid growth in the weight loss drugs space to near-disaster and then a partnership-fueled recovery. The discussion acknowledges both the potential and ongoing risks facing Hims as it adapts to a new regulatory landscape, a new business model, and fierce competition. Ultimately, Zaid concludes with cautious optimism, emphasizing the critical importance of the upcoming quarters for Hims’ future viability.

(Note: All timestamps are approximate and reference the beginning of each segment for listener convenience.)