The Rundown – Deep Dive: Can Lucid Motors Survive the EV Winter?

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: January 10, 2026
Podcast: The Rundown by Public.com
Duration: ~10 minutes

Episode Overview

In this weekend deep dive episode, Zaid Admani explores Lucid Motors' precarious position as a luxury EV maker navigating the “EV winter”—a period marked by diminishing hype, vanishing tax credits, and sinking demand. Admani lays out Lucid’s history, its recent strategic moves, key financials, and both the bullish and bearish outlooks for the company. He wraps with his own cautious perspective on Lucid’s future, staking 2026 as a pivotal year.

Lucid's Origin Story and Evolution

[00:36–02:33]

• Founded in 2007 as Ativa, initially focused on EV batteries, including for Formula E racing.
• Pivot to luxury EVs: Peter Rawlinson (ex-Tesla Model S chief engineer) joins as CTO, brings vision to create the most advanced and luxurious electric car.
• Rebranded as Lucid Motors in 2016.
• 2018: Secures a $1B investment from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF).
• 2021: Goes public via SPAC, launches the flagship $100,000 Lucid Air sedan (praised for range, generally positive reviews).
• 2024: Debuts the luxury SUV Lucid Gravity, receiving strong initial reviews.

“Having a great car and having a great business are two very different things.”
— Zaid Admani, [02:33]

Current Financials and Production Snapshot

[02:34–04:17]

• Deliveries: Nearly 16,000 vehicles delivered in 2025—5% more than 2024.
• Production: Over 18,300 vehicles built in 2025 (more than double 2024), with Q4 especially strong owing to SUV demand.
• Stock price: Dropped over 60% in 2025, near all-time lows.
• Financial headwinds:
  • Burned nearly $1B in Q3 2025 alone.
  • Gross margins negative—losing money on every car sold.
  • $1.6B in cash remaining, but a $5.5B total liquidity lifeline from Saudi PIF (enough to survive through mid-2027, per Lucid).

“What’s very concerning...is that their gross margins are still negative, which means they’re losing money on every single car they sell.”
— Zaid Admani, [03:39]

The Bull Case for Lucid

[04:18–06:15]

• SUV Expansion:
  • Late entry into luxury SUV market with the Lucid Gravity (strong reviews, rivals Tesla Model X and Rivian R1S).
  • Upcoming Lucid Earth, a rumored midsize SUV (<$50,000), aims for broader mass-market appeal.
• Battery & Powertrain Leadership:
  • Lucid cars achieve 400–500 miles per charge, marketed as 30–40% more efficient than competitors.
• RoboTaxi Partnership:
  • At CES 2026: Announces partnership with Uber and autonomous-driving company Nuro.
  • Structure: Lucid builds the vehicle, Uber handles interior experience, Nuro supplies Level 4 autonomous system (Waymo equivalence).
  • Uber pledges to purchase 20,000 Lucid Gravity RoboTaxis over the next six years.
  • Potential payoff: If robo-taxis disrupt personal car ownership, Lucid could become a vital “distribution partner” in a multi-trillion dollar market (per Cathie Wood).

“Lucid is positioning themselves as the go-to distribution partner for RoboTaxis, which could be a multi-trillion dollar business. At least, that’s what Cathie Wood is estimating it to be.”
— Zaid Admani, [06:00]

The Bear Case for Lucid

[06:16–08:28]

• Demand Cliff:
  • “EV winter:” $7,500 federal EV tax credit ended in September 2025 (via President Trump’s legislative changes).
  • Gas prices at multi-year lows, further eroding EV incentive.
  • Major automakers are retreating from EVs: Ford and GM taking billion-dollar write-offs.
• Profitability Crisis:
  • Lucid is nowhere near profitability; gross margins remain negative.
  • Specter of running out of cash if no turnaround occurs.
• RoboTaxi Ambitions:
  • The Uber–Nuro deal is early-stage, while rivals like Waymo have operational fleets in several U.S. cities.
  • Tesla is scaling its own robo-taxi program, with a focus on affordability.
• Quality Control Issues:
  • Ongoing problems: software glitches, key fob malfunctions—undercutting luxury reputation.
• Wall Street Skepticism:
  • Of 8 analysts covering Lucid, only 1 is bullish.
  • Morgan Stanley recently downgraded from “buy” ($30 target) to “sell” ($10 target).

“I mean, that’s not a great look for a luxury car company that sells a $100,000 car.”
— Zaid Admani on Lucid’s recurring quality issues, [08:02]

Host’s Take & Outlook

[08:29–09:41]

Zaid’s summary is cautious, bordering on bearish:

• Acknowledges Lucid’s superior product and battery technology, and the compelling robo-taxi partnership.
• But, Lucid is running out of time; survival hinges on securing ongoing financial backing (chiefly from the Saudi PIF), launching a successful midsize SUV, and/or possibly getting acquired for its technology.
• Sees 2026 as a potential “make-or-break year”—doubtful the EV market will revive in time.

“As an investor, it’s hard for me to get excited about this company.”
— Zaid Admani, [09:25]

Memorable Quotes

• “The auto sector is in the middle of an EV winter. The hype is gone. The tax credits are gone. And with that, demand is also gone.”
  — Zaid Admani, [00:12]

• “Lucid’s cars are amazing, their battery tech is best in class, and the robo-taxi partnership is...but they just don’t have a lot of time left to turn things around.”
  — Zaid Admani, [09:16]

Key Segment Timestamps

• Intro & Lucid’s history: 00:00–02:33
• Financials & 2025 snapshot: 02:34–04:17
• Bull case – SUVs, tech, robo-taxi: 04:18–06:15
• Bear case – Demand, finances, rivals: 06:16–08:28
• Host’s summary/outlook: 08:29–09:41

Tone & Style:
Zaid Admani’s delivery is frank, data-driven, and approachable, with quick explanations and relatable comparisons to industry peers. The episode is accessible for investors and listeners seeking a punchy but nuanced analysis of Lucid’s prospects.