The Rundown – Deep Dive: Inside Trump’s Red-Hot Investment Portfolio

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: October 25, 2025

Overview

This episode of The Rundown takes a close look at the Trump administration’s aggressive new approach: direct equity investments in strategic U.S. companies. The focus is on national security-related sectors like semiconductors and rare earth elements, examining both the financial returns and the wider implications for U.S. industry and global competition.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Intel Investment: Betting Big on U.S. Chipmaking (01:20–05:40)

• Deal Details:

  • In August, the U.S. government bought a 10% stake in Intel (433 million shares at $20.47/share, totaling $8.9 billion).
  • Objective: Support Intel’s turnaround and boost domestic advanced chip manufacturing.

• Performance So Far:

  • Intel shares are up over 90% since the deal; government's stake now worth $16.5 billion ([02:40]).
  • Despite gains, Intel’s foundry unit lost $2.3 billion in the latest quarter. New CEO Lip Bhutan aims for fiscal discipline.
  • Quote:

    "For now, though, the US taxpayer has a nice $8 billion unrealized gain on the intel investment." – Zaid ([04:57])

• Challenges:

  • Intel faces stiff competition from TSMC (Taiwan), which is outspending Intel and dominates advanced chip production.
  • U.S. government might increase support, but "Intel still needs to execute on the turnaround plan… to be a legit competitor to TSMC." ([05:10])

2. Rare Earths: Breaking China’s Chokehold (05:41–09:32)

• Why It Matters:

  • China controls 70% of mining and 90% of processing for rare earth elements—vital to electronics, AI, EVs, defense.
  • In April, China tightened export restrictions on key materials, prompting U.S. action.

• Key Investments:

  • MP Materials: 15% stake ($400M); operates the only U.S. rare earth mine. Stock price doubled post-investment ([07:11]).
    • Funding aimed at boosting magnetic material production.
  • Lithium Americas: 5% direct stake, and 5% in Thacker Pass (largest U.S. lithium site; JV with GM). Both investments led to doubled stock prices ([08:02]).
  • Trilogy Metals (Canada): 10% stake ($35M), with warrants for more; company tripled in value ([08:32]).
    • Enabled by new U.S. approval for mining in Alaska.

• Impact:

  • Administration’s stake announcements cause major stock rallies.
  • Quote:

    "There’s a pretty clear pattern here. As soon as US Government announces that they're taking a stake in the company, the stock price of that company shoots way up." – Zaid ([08:54])

3. The Next Frontier: Quantum Computing (09:33–13:08)

• Rumored Deals:

  • Wall Street Journal reports the White House is considering investments in quantum companies (Rigetti, IonQ, D-Wave).
  • Potential investments: at least $10 million per company, possibly via warrants, licenses, revenue sharing, or equity ([10:09]).
  • Stocks surged on the news, but the Commerce Dept. denied active talks—stocks retreated, but "everyone is reading into the word 'currently'…" ([11:00])

• Strategic Rationale:

  • Quantum computers could revolutionize fields: new drugs, materials, AI.
  • National security angle: Quantum threatens existing encryption—could, in theory, break today’s security protocols in seconds.

• Market Context:

  • Industry made just $750 million revenue in 2024 (McKinsey).
  • Investors are pouring in amid speculation.
  • Quote:

    “Quantum computers threaten to upend the encryption system that currently protect everything from bank transfers and trade secrets to government communications.” – Zaid ([12:11])

4. Analysis & Takeaways (13:09–15:32)

• Shift in Federal Strategy:

  • Administration is choosing direct investments over grants/loans.
  • Parallels drawn to China’s market interventions—recognition that U.S. firms struggle to compete with Chinese subsidized companies.

• Key Question:

  • Will this turn the U.S. government into a long-term value creator or just provide feel-good portfolio boosts?
  • Quote:

    “I’m not sure how I feel about the fact that the White House has essentially become a venture capitalist firm.” – Zaid ([13:45])

  • Future Targets:
    • Likely to remain national security-focused: drones, space, next-gen military tech.

• Closing Thought:

  • Thus far, the U.S. taxpayer is seeing a strong paper return, but the ultimate impact on supply chains and industrial strength remains to be seen.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Intel’s progress:

  “Intel still needs to execute on the turnaround plan and also figure out how to actually manufacture state of the art chips.” – Zaid ([05:10])

• On rare earth investments:

  "As soon as US Government announces that they're taking a stake in the company, the stock price of that company shoots way up." ([08:54])

• On the nature of government investing:

  “I’m not sure how I feel about the fact that the White House has essentially become a venture capitalist firm.” ([13:45])

• On the hype around quantum:

  "There’s a lot of hype right now around quantum companies, despite the industry only making like $750 million in revenue last year." ([11:37])

• On national security implications of quantum computing:

  "Quantum computers threaten to upend the encryption system that currently protect everything from bank transfers and trade secrets to government communications." ([12:11])

Summary Table of Key Investments

| Company | Stake Size | Announcement Date | Purpose | Stock Performance Since | |------------------------|-------------------|-------------------|----------------------------------------------|---------------------------| | Intel | 10% | August 2025 | Semiconductor/AI chips, national security | +90% | | MP Materials | 15% | July 2025 | Rare earth mining, strategic materials | Doubled | | Lithium Americas | 5% | September 2025 | Lithium for EV/battery supply | Doubled | | Thacker Pass (JV site) | 5% | September 2025 | Largest U.S. lithium deposit | N/A | | Trilogy Metals (Canada)| 10% + warrants | September 2025 | Mining in Alaska: copper, cobalt, etc. | Tripled |

The Rundown’s Takeaway

The Trump administration is rewriting the U.S. industrial strategy playbook, opting for direct equity stakes in strategic companies rather than traditional support mechanisms. While taxpayers have so far benefited from rising share prices, the bigger question remains: will this approach truly deliver secure domestic supply chains and technical leadership or simply stoke short-term stock frenzies? With quantum computing, military, space, and drone investments possibly next, all eyes are on what industries get the next government boost.

Next up: The Rundown will continue tracking new government deals and their impact on markets and U.S. competitiveness.