The Rundown – Deep Dive: Is Gold's Surge a Warning for the Economy?

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: October 4, 2025
Podcast: The Rundown by Public.com

Episode Overview

This weekend episode takes a close look at the dramatic surge in gold prices, exploring why gold is on the rise, what factors are fueling investor demand, and whether this signals broader concerns about the stability of the U.S. and global economy. Host Zaid Admani examines the roles of government shutdowns, policy moves under President Trump, shifting central bank reserves, and evolving global power dynamics, all while breaking down what gold’s bull run could mean for investors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Do Investors Buy Gold? (00:25 – 02:40)

• Gold as a Safe Haven:
  • Gold isn’t like stocks or companies—it pays no dividend, makes no profits, and has no earnings reports.
  • "It's just a shiny rock that looks nice on jewelry. So what's the deal here? Well, gold is considered a safe haven asset." (Zaid Admani, 00:35)
  • When chaos erupts (wars, political instability, uncertainty), money moves from riskier assets into gold, the "finance world's version of an underground bunker."
• Store of Value:
  • Gold is tangible, doesn’t rely on government, and remains valuable over long stretches of history.
• Inflation Hedge:
  • "Central bankers can print more currency like dollars, but they can't print more gold." (01:40)

2. What’s Driving Gold Higher in 2025? (02:41 – 09:40)

a. U.S. Government Shutdown (02:45 – 05:55)

• The recent government shutdown has added fuel to gold’s rally by increasing uncertainty.
• Shutdowns typically don’t dent the economy much; previous shutdowns had little GDP impact and markets ignored them.
  • "During those 35 days, the S&P 500 rallied 10%. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the shutdown back then knocked just 0.02% off the US GDP for the year, which is like a rounding error, essentially." (04:00)
• The current shutdown is considered riskier:
  • The Trump administration has suggested making some furloughs permanent, potentially leading to a labor market shock.
  • "The Congressional Budget Office estimates that around 750,000 employees will be furloughed during this shutdown, at the cost of around $400 million per day in lost compensation." (04:40)
• Economic data releases are halted (jobs reports, inflation, wages), blinding both investors and the Fed.

b. Trump Administration Policies (05:56 – 08:00)

• Trump's aggressive trade policy, especially tariffs, has heightened uncertainty and inflation fears.
  • "The tariff shock from back in April... tariffs are still at the highest level in decades." (06:10)
• Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates despite above-target inflation.
  • Cuts make bonds less attractive and push more money into gold.
• The Fed recently reduced rates by 25 basis points and more cuts are expected.
  • "According to the CME Fed Watch tool, there's a 95% chance the Fed cuts interest rates again by 25 basis points at the Fed meeting in October. And then there's an 85% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting." (07:28)

c. Central Bank Gold Buying (08:01 – 09:20)

• Central banks, especially since 2022 after Russian reserves were frozen, are increasing gold purchases:
  • "Central bankers, especially in emerging markets, have increased their gold purchases about five fold since 2022. Central banks now collectively hold about 27% of their total global reserves in gold." (08:25)
• For the first time since 1996, gold is a larger share of central bank reserves than U.S. Treasuries.
• China is a major buyer:
  • The People's Bank of China has upped holdings for ten consecutive months, but gold is still just 7% of their reserves versus >70% for major Western economies.
  • China is not just buying for diversification but to exert more global financial influence, offering gold custody through the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

3. The Big Picture: Shifting Global Power Dynamics (09:20 – 09:40)

• The gold rush isn’t just U.S. policy or inflation—it signals a structural shift as global power moves away from dollar dominance, led by China.
  • "When you zoom out, this gold rally over the last year isn’t just about the government shutdown... It's about the shifting global power dynamics away from the US Dollar. And it’s being led by China." (09:30)

Host’s Take: Is Gold's Surging Price a Warning? (09:41 – 10:03)

• Zaid Admani doesn’t see an imminent recession, as markets and growth remain robust, but sees the gold rally as a “crisis of confidence.”
  • "This gold rally seems to be more of a crisis of confidence. Investors have less confidence in the US government, where shutdowns and political drama are shaking trust and government stability. There's also less confidence in the Federal Reserve... and the US Dollar." (09:45)
• Personal reflection: Zaid admits past skepticism about gold but acknowledges that recent events have changed his perspective.
  • "I've been a gold hater for a long time... But I'm not gonna lie, this recent gold rally and the developments around it has gotten my attention. Now I just wish I listened to my mom last year and bought some gold at Costco." (09:58)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Gold is considered a safe haven asset. It's been used to conduct business for thousands of years." (00:35, Zaid Admani)
• "It's like the finance world's version of an underground bunker." (01:09)
• "Central bankers can print more currency like dollars, but they can't print more gold." (01:40)
• "During those 35 days, the S&P 500 rallied 10%." (04:00)
• "Central bankers, especially in emerging markets, have increased their gold purchases about five fold since 2022." (08:25)
• "This gold rally is telling us that investors don't fully trust the system anymore." (09:50)
• "Now I just wish I listened to my mom last year and bought some gold at Costco." (09:58)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction & Safe Haven Gold – 00:00–02:40
• Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown – 02:41–05:55
• Trump & Fed Policies, Tariffs – 05:56–08:00
• Global Central Bank Gold Buying & China’s Strategy – 08:01–09:20
• Host’s Analysis & Big Picture – 09:21–10:03

Tone & Style

Zaid’s delivery is approachable and explanatory, breaking complex economic dynamics into practical analogies and real-world impacts. He balances humor ("the finance world's version of an underground bunker") with sober analysis, making the episode accessible for both seasoned investors and newcomers.

Summary Takeaway

Gold’s surge is less about looming doom and more about deepening anxiety, system mistrust, and the west-to-east shift in global financial power. The episode leaves listeners with the sense that gold’s rise is a warning sign—not necessarily of imminent collapse, but of eroding confidence and a world seeking alternatives to the dollar-dominated order.