The Rundown – Deep Dive: On Holding ($ONON) — Hype, Numbers, and Reality

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: November 22, 2025
Episode Focus: An in-depth analysis of Swiss running company On Holding ($ONON): its rapid rise, business model, competitive positioning, and investment outlook.

Episode Overview

Zaid Admani delivers a concise but comprehensive exploration of On Holding, the innovative Swiss sneaker brand behind the "cloud-like" running shoe craze. The episode covers the company’s founding, pivotal moments, astonishing growth numbers, and both bullish and bearish perspectives on its future. Admani assesses whether On can maintain momentum against industry giants like Nike and Adidas or risks faltering as earlier challengers have done.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Origins and Unique Innovation (00:16–02:03)

• On was founded in the late 2000s in the Swiss Alps by former Ironman champion Olivier Bernhard, motivated by his desire for “shoes that felt like running on clouds.”
• Bernhard’s early prototype involved “gluing a piece of garden hose to the bottom of a Nike shoe” to create a softer landing, which became the core of On’s CloudTec technology.
  • Quote: “That was the light bulb moment for him. And this unique concept ultimately was the basis of On Cloud." (01:02)
• Major brands initially passed on Bernhard’s concept, prompting him to found On alongside Casper Capetti and David Alleman in 2010.
• Initially, the brand’s appeal was somewhat niche, targeting serious runners.

2. Transformational Moments & Celebrity Partnerships (02:04–03:21)

• 2012: On’s “Cloud Race” shoe gained visibility when Swiss triathlete Nicola Spirig won Olympic gold wearing them.
• 2019: Roger Federer became an investor (3% stake) and launched his own signature On shoe, “The Roger,” marking a pivotal moment in global brand awareness.
  • Quote: “When he announced that he was ditching Nike to go with this Swiss company… I was kind of shocked. But it worked out… because fast forward today, On is a publicly traded company worth over $13 billion.” (03:00)

3. Market Performance and Financial Metrics (03:22–05:33)

• IPO’d on NYSE in September 2021 at $24/share (valuation: $6.9 billion); shares are now ~$40 (valuation: $13 billion).
• 2025 Q3 Earnings:
  • Sales: nearly 800 million CHF (~$980 million), up 25% YoY.
  • Gross margin: 65%, significantly higher than Nike/Adidas (~45%).
    • Quote: “Gross margins of 65%... very high for a shoe company... that means ON has incredible pricing power.” (04:40)
• On’s positioning: “essentially turned themselves into a luxury running company” with a premium brand strategy.
• Sales expected to reach nearly 3 billion CHF in 2025 (34% YoY growth projected).

4. International Expansion & Product Diversification (05:34–07:10)

• Americas are currently the largest market, but Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing:
  • Q3 '25: Asia Pacific sales up 94% YoY; China alone up 130%.
  • Asia Pacific now 20% of total sales (was 5% in 2020).
• 92% of revenue comes from footwear; apparel could drive future growth (apparel revenue +90% YoY in Q3).
  • Quote: “Apparel only accounts for about 6% of ON’s total revenue. For Nike and Adidas, apparel is around 25%.” (06:54)

5. The Bull Case for ONON (07:11–09:08)

• Wall Street consensus: “Buy” rating, average price target $61.50.
• Market share:
  • On: ~3% of global sports footwear
  • Nike: ~40%
  • Adidas: ~18%
  • Room for growth: “share has increased more than 8x from 2019 to 2024.”
• Expansion into tennis, training, apparel; luxury product offerings ($450 jackets, $150 T-shirts).
• Apparel buyers are more loyal and have higher spend per trip.
• Tapping into the “running boom” and cultural shift (run clubs, marathons, “sneaker as social phenomenon”).
  • US running shoe market up 20% in 3 years, now at $7.4B (as of October).
  • Record 59,000 runners at recent NYC Marathon; winner Helen Obiri wore ONs.
• Innovation Spotlight: “Lightspray” — a breakthrough manufacturing tech that creates laceless running shoes in three minutes, promising better margins and scalability.
  • Quote: “If they can scale this… that’s a potential game changing technology for both cost and speed.” (08:55)

6. The Bear Case: Competitive & Macro Risks (09:09–12:43)

• ON’s momentum partly fueled by Nike’s recent strategic missteps:
  • Nike pulled back from wholesalers; ON built those relationships.
  • Nike focused on fashion over performance.
• Nike is refocusing: new CEO, return to wholesale, renewed sports/athlete focus; has vast resources and global brand power ($50B+ sales vs. ON’s $3B).
  • Quote: “Nike might be in a slump right now, but they’re still one of the most recognizable brands in the world.” (10:33)
• Past precedent: Under Armour’s meteoric rise and subsequent decline.
  • Quote: “Under Armour was hot for a minute, but now not so much… their stock is down around 90% from its peak back in 2015.” (11:15)
• Fashion/trend risk: Will “cloud” shoes stay cool in 3–5 years?
• Apparel segment is especially competitive—facing not only Nike and Adidas, but brands like Alo, Vuori, and Lululemon.
• Economic risk: If disposable incomes drop, $200 running shoes may be challenged by cheaper alternatives.
• Valuation: Trades at ~25x forward P/E, in line with the sector, but high growth must continue to justify.

7. Host’s Perspective & Wrap-Up (12:44–14:12)

• Admani expresses admiration for ON’s capture of the high-end running market and “cult-like” following.
  • Quote: “Their shoes have a cult like following in the running community. But now they're trying to move beyond just running into other categories and general lifestyle.” (13:05)
• Cautious about the limits of growth in a fiercely competitive landscape—especially if ON loses hot-brand status.
• Sees downside risk but also potential for continued outperformance if high growth and margins persist.
• Personal note: Not a runner, but “I think I’m gonna get myself a pair of ON shoes pretty soon.” (13:57)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Bernhard’s light bulb moment: “That was the light bulb moment… this unique concept ultimately was the basis of On Cloud.” (01:02)
• On Roger Federer’s impact: “When he announced that he was ditching Nike to go with this Swiss company… I was kind of shocked. But it worked out…” (03:00)
• On gross margin strength: “Gross margins of 65%... that means On has incredible pricing power.” (04:40)
• On innovation: “If they can scale this… that’s a potential game changing technology for both cost and speed.” (08:55)
• On Nike’s potential rebound: “Nike might be in a slump right now, but they’re still one of the most recognizable brands in the world.” (10:33)
• On trend/fad risk: “Under Armour was hot for a minute, but now not so much… their stock is down around 90% from its peak.” (11:15)
• On the cult status: “Their shoes have a cult like following in the running community.” (13:05)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• 00:16 — Founding story and CloudTec innovation
• 02:04 — Olympic and Federer moments; branding transformation
• 03:22 — IPO details, growth numbers, and margin strength
• 05:34 — International sales growth and beginnings of apparel push
• 07:11 — Bull case: market share, product expansion, and "Lightspray" tech
• 09:09 — Bear case: competition, trend/fashion risk, economic risks
• 12:44 — Host’s balanced take and personal outlook

Final Thoughts

Admani delivers an engaging, informative look at On Holding as both cult favorite and fast-rising public company. He helps listeners understand the hype, the business realities, and the risks. The story is far from over—ON’s next chapters depend on whether it can continue out-innovating, outgrowing, and outlasting giants in an intensely competitive space.

For further discussion:
Are you an ON fan? Bullish or bearish? Drop your take in Spotify or YouTube comments.