← The Rundown
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Public.com presents the rundown, your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zaydadmani and today is Monday, March 30th. In today's episode, we'll tell you the latest market reaction to the war and why there is nowhere for investors to hide. We'll also tell you about more smoke coming from the private credit space and the latest AI Partnership from Eli Lilly. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out why. So Sony is raising the prices of the PS5. We got a great show for you today. Let's go. Well, we're coming off another brutal week on Wall Street. The S P 500 dropped 2.1% last week, while the Nasdaq did even worse, dropping 3.2%. Stocks have now dropped for five straight weeks and the last time that happened was back in 2022. For the year, the S P500 is down 7% while the NASDAQ has dropped 10%. The big thing driving the sell off, of course, has been the war with Iran and rising oil prices. We are now entering the fifth week of this conflict and investors are starting to freak out that this could drag on for much longer. The big concern is the Strait of Hormuz. It's still closed, and that's why oil prices keep climbing. Brent crude is now trading above $115 a barrel this morning, which is up more than 55% just in March alone. That would make it the biggest monthly surge in oil prices on record. And there are some people out there thinking that this could get much worse. On Monday, we posted an interview with Amos Hochstein, the former senior White House advisor who's dealt with energy shocks in the past, and he thinks the market is still underpricing the risk of the war. He walked through some of the ripple effects of the energy supply crunch. So if you want to learn more about the oil markets and what could happen in the next few weeks, I highly recommend checking out that conversation. We'll post the link in the description. Now, looking ahead, things continue to be escalating when it comes to the war. The Pentagon is weighing whether to send 10,000 additional ground troops to the region to there's been rumors of boots on the ground, and now President Trump just posted on Truth Social that the US could destroy Iran's oil wells and other infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened. The conflict seems to be widening and not winding down. So we could be in for some more pain this week in the stock market. And here's the problem for investors. See, usually when stocks get choppy or start selling off, investors can hedge by buying bonds or gold. Well, gold has dropped 10% since the war started. And bond yields are jumping, too, because the market expects interest rates to stay higher for longer because higher oil prices are fueling inflation fears. So there's really nowhere for investors to hide right now except for energy stocks and, I guess, cash. So, yeah, I expect another choppy week of trading. On the bright side, we only have four trading days this week because the markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday. So no show from us that day. But we'll be here for the rest of the week breaking down everything happening. So make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast and tuning in to stay in the loop. Let's run through some headlines, starting with private credit. You know, every time I refresh my timeline, there seems to be more and more smoke in the private credit space. You know, we've been talking about this a lot more over the last month or so. Investors have pulled out more than $11 billion out of private credit funds over the past two quarters, and the withdrawals are hitting record highs. Things have gotten so bad now that some funds are starting to limit how much money investors can actually take out. One of the reasons that investors are starting to panic is because of AI and the decline in software stocks. See, a lot of these private credit funds made a ton of loans to software companies over the past five years. And now with AI threatening to disrupt or even replace a lot of these software businesses, investors are worried that these loans could go bad. And here's where things get a bit sketchy. The Wall Street Journal did an analysis, and they found that four of the largest private credit funds actually have way more software exposure than they've been reporting. On average, the four funds reported about 19% of their investments, foreign softw. But the Journal found that the real number is closer to 25%. Some of these funds were categorizing software companies under different industries like health care or business services to make their exposure look smaller. So the risks might be even higher than initially reported. Now, these private fund managers say that this panic is all overblown. They say the loans are performing well, that the AI fears are creating unnecessary panic. And look, I think they might be right. But the optics are terrible when investors are already nervous and heading for the exits. And here's where it gets even crazier. Despite all the recent turmoil, the Trump administration just proposed a new rule today that would make it easier to put private credit and private equity into your 401k. See, right now, most for 1k plans stick to regular stocks and bond funds. But Wall street firms have been pushing the administration to allow more alternative assets like private credit to be investable via 401k. You know, there over $14 trillion locked up in 401ks. That's a massive pool of money that these Wall street firms want access to, like personally. That seems very risky to invest in a private equity or a private credit fund using your retirement money. But I don't know. Let me know what you guys think in the comments. Do you think that these private credit funds should be allowed in 401ks? If you look at the stock price of these private credit companies like Blue Owl and Blackstone and Apollo, the stock is down like 30 to 40% this year. So yeah, we're going to continue to keep an eye on the private credit space because like I said, a lot of smoke there right now. Let's shift gears and talk about Eli Lilly. Eli Lilly just announced a $2.75 billion deal with the Hong Kong base In Silico medicine to bring AI developed drugs to the global market. In Silica will receive $115 million upfront and royalties on future sales of their drugs, with the remainder of the deal value contingent on additional milestones. In return, Eli Lilly will get access to In Silico's AI called Pharma AI and they'll get exclusive worldwide rights to develop and commercialize potential medicines. This is a pretty big deal because In Silico has already developed at least 28 drugs using generative AI tools and nearly half of those drugs are already in clinical stages. And it speaks to how advanced China is becoming when it comes to drug development. A lot of it due to AI In Silico is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, but conducts its R D in China and it's backed by the Hong Kong government's investment arm. In fact, the company went public in Hong Kong back in December and the stock is already up 50% this year. And Eli, Lillian and Silico have already been working together since 2023. So this deal expands a relationship that already existed. So yeah, drug development in China is moving fast. So the Chinese pharma companies might be a space to watch over the next couple of years. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. Shares of the aluminum producer Alcoa are rising this morning. Two major aluminum producers in the Middle east were attacked by Iran over the weekend. The Middle east accounts for about 9% of global aluminum production, according to the bank ANZ. And the firm recently warned that 4 to 5 million metric tons of aluminum exports are at risk because of the war. So that's why aluminum futures are surging up more than 4% today and the metal is now up 10% higher than where it was before the war started. And that's why investors are piling into Alcoa with shares up 10% this morning, because it's one of the largest aluminum producers in the world and it stands to benefit from tighter global supply and higher prices. Now, on the flip side, Avis is down this morning, giving back some of the gains from last week's monster rally where the car rental stock jumped 48%. A big reason for the rally last week was the chaos at US Airports from the partial government shutdown. TSA agents are working without pay. A bunch reportedly called out or straight up quit and that led to brutal airport wait times at airports across the country. Wait time probably scared away some flyers who probably chose to drive instead. And as a result, Avis was a benefit. Now, there still is a partial government shutdown, but President Trump did sign an executive order over the weekend to pay TSA agents. That's taken some air out of the Avis trade and traders are probably cashing in on the massive run up from last week's run. Shares of Avis are down around 7% this morning at the time of this recording. Let's wrap the show with the fun fact. Sony is raising the prices of the PS5 again. Prices of all the PS5 models are going up. The digital version is going from $500 to $600. The disc version is going from 550 to 650. And then the PS5 Pro is getting the biggest price increase, jumping from 750 all the way up to $900. You know what's crazy here is the PS5 first launched five years ago for $400. And usually consoles get cheaper over time, but instead Sony has hiked the price of the PS5 twice in the last year. Sony is blaming the rise in memory prices for the price increase. The prices of RAM has skyrocketed recently because of all the demand from AI data centers. So yeah, essentially AI is raising the prices of video games. These price hikes will go into effect on April 2nd. So if you've been on the fence of buying a PS5, it might be the best time to do so right now. Well, all right guys, that's the rundown for today. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. If you did and you have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a five star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcasts. All that engagement really does help us out and it helps other people find the show. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes and we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.