Transcript
A (0:00)
Public.com presents the rundown, your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zadod Mani and Today is Friday, February 13th. In today's episode, we'll break down the latest CPI report. We'll also recap earnings from Airbnb, Rivian and DraftKings, then stick around to the end of the show to find out why Waymo is having to pay doordash drivers. We got a great show for you today. Let's go. Thursday was a brutal day for the stock market. The S and P dropped 1.6% while the NASDAQ was down 2%. And once again, the AI disruption panic is driving the sell off. Tech was the worst performing sector again and trucking stocks became the latest victim of the AI freakout. There was an AI company out of Florida that announced that its AI platform allows operators to scale scale freight volumes by 300 to 400% without increasing headcount. So that sent trucking stocks and logistics stocks in the tank yesterday. The Dow Jones Transportation average, which tracks these logistics and transportation stocks was down 4% yesterday, its worst day since last April. So yeah, I feel like this is happening every single day at this point. Last week it was software companies that took a hit. Monday it was insurance brokers. Tuesday it was wealth managers. And Thursday it was transportation companies. Investors are dumping any stock that even smells smells like it could be disrupted by AI, which is leading to more volatility. Now, Michael Batnik from the Compound posted a wild chart on X that caught my attention. Over the last eight trading sessions, 115 stocks in the S P 500 have dropped at least 7% in a single day. That is very unusual. And historically that kind of carnage only happens during a bear market. But right now, the S P isn't in a bear market. In fact, we're just 2% below all time highs. So it's a very weird market environment. In fact, the last time we saw something like this was the dot com bubble. Now, we did get some good news this morning. The January CPI report came in cooler than expected. Headline inflation rose 2.4% year over year, down from the 2.7% in December and cooler than the 2.5% that Wall street was expecting. So inflation continues to cool, which is good news, but it's still above the Fed's 2% target. By the way, just a heads up, Monday is President's Day, so the stock market will be closed, which means no show from us. But we're dropp in some great content over the weekend. On Saturday, we're posting a deep dive about the collapse of software stocks and if it's an overreaction or justified. And then on Sunday, we're dropping an interview with the CEO of a firm, Max Levchin. I'm not gonna lie to you guys, I was pretty nervous for that conversation, but it went really well. He defended why Affirm is a better product than credit cards. Really enjoyed that conversation. So keep an eye on your podcast feed this weekend for those two episodes. Let's run through some headline starting with Airbnb. Airbnb reported earnings last night and it was kind of a mixed bag. Q4 revenues came in strong, up 12% to $2.8 billion, and gross booking value, which is like the total value of stays booked, jumped 16 to $20.4 billion. Both those numbers beat expectations and show that demand for the platform is healthy. But profits for Airbnb did take a hit. Airbnb posted a profit of $341 million, or $0.56 per share, which is, which is down from the $461 million a year ago and below the $0.67 a share that analysts were expecting. So why the sudden drop in profits? Well, for one, Airbnb took a $90 million charge related to non income tax matters. Now some sort of boring accounting thing should be a one time charge. More importantly though, the company's expenses were up 22% from last year as they invested heavily in growth initiatives and new businesses. Airbnb is pouring money into experiences boutique hot flexible payment options like Reserve now, pay later, and even testing things like airport pickup services and partnering with Instacart to have groceries and snacks delivered to your Airbnb when you arrive. On top of all those features, the company is also doubling down on AI to improve search and customer support. So yeah, Airbnb seems to be trading short term profits for long term growth. And for now, investors seem to be okay with that bet, especially since demand for their platform is keeps growing like it is. As a result, Airbnb stock is up 5% this morning at the time of this recording. I'll be honest with you guys though, I haven't stayed at an Airbnb in like five years. I'm a full on hotel guy at this point, but I guess people are still using Airbnb. Let's shift gears and talk about Anthropic. The maker of the Claude AI chatbot. Anthropic announced that they closed a $30 billion funding round that values the company at $380 billion. That's more than double what they were ad from just five months ago back in September. Now, to be fair, their business is absolutely exploding right now. Anthropic's annualized revenue hit $14 billion, which is up from $10 billion at the end of last year. Claude Code, its AI coding tool, is now doing $2.5 billion in annualized revenue. And about 80% of Anthropic's business is from the enterprise and not consumer, which is a better business to be in and a key differentiator from their rival OpenAI. You know, Anthropic seems to have taken a lot of the juice from OpenAI. They're coming out with new and and tools at a rapid pace. In fact, all these tools being released by Anthropic is one of the reasons that software stocks have been selling off. We talk more about that in our deep dive tomorrow, so make sure you guys tune in for that. By the way, speaking of OpenAI, they're also looking to raise more money at a $750 billion valuation. So I guess the big picture here is that despite software stocks selling off, there seems to be no slowdown in investor appetite to pour money into these AI companies. And keep in mind these AI companies still aren't profitable yet. So it's going to be very interesting to see what happens to these companies once they go public. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. Rivian shares are absolutely ripping this morning after the EV maker beat earnings and gave investors something they've been waiting for real growth guidance. Rivian says they expect to deliver between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles in 2026, which is up more than 59% from last year'. There's 42, 000 vehicles delivered. A big driver of that growth will be the launch of the next gen R2 SUV, which is priced around 45, 000 and expected to go on sale in the second quarter of this year. Now, Rivian still expects to lose $2 billion in 2026 as a ramp up production. But investors are willing to overlook the losses as long as the volume keeps ramping up. And that's why Rivian Stock is up about 20 this morning at the time of this recording. On the flip side, DraftKings is getting crushed after missing revenue expectations and issuing weak guidance for 2026. Fourth quarter revenue came in at $1.99 billion, which is up 43% from a year ago. But Wall street wanted to see more monthly unique players also missed estimates coming in at 4.8 million versus the 5.4 million that analysts expected. But I think the biggest issue is the company's guidance. DraftKings expects 2026 revenues between 6.5 billion and 6.9 billion, while Wall street was expecting 7.3 billion. So that's a pretty big gap. Now we talked earlier in the week that these sports books are losing business to prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Now, DraftKings management tried to calm those fears, saying that they're not seeing prediction markets cannibalize their core sportsbooks business. In fact, DraftKings tried to spin the rise of prediction markets as an opportunity for them. DraftKings launched their own prediction market at the end of 2025, hasn't gotten much traction compared to Calci or Polymarket just yet. And that's why investors are freaking out. They're not buying the prediction market as an opportunity story and shares of DraftKings are down like 15 this morning at the time of this recording. Let's wrap the show with a fun fact. Waymo, the self driving car company owned by Google, is paying doordash delivery drivers to close its car doors. This is such a hilarious story. So apparently these super high tech Waymo cars, which cost like $150,000, don't doors that close automatically. So in instances when a passenger gets out and accidentally leaves the door open, the car can't move, it just sits there. So Waymo then sends a notification to nearby doordash drivers asking them to walk up to the car and shut the door. There was a post on Reddit where one DoorDash driver in Atlanta was offered 11.25 just to shut the door. And in Los Angeles some drivers have been offered up to $24 to do the same thing. Now the company did say that future vehicles will have automated door closures, but they didn't really say when that actually gonna happen. You know this whole story is like a good metaphor for where we are with AI in 2026. I mean the technology is incredible in some ways, but then still can't handle like the basics. Sometimes I wonder if we're gonna have a situation where people are just gonna start following these waymos around all day hoping to get paid what, 10 to 15 bucks to shut the door after each ride. Well all right guys, that's the rundown for today. That's the rundown for this week. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. If you did and you have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. And if you are listening on Spotify. Don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. All that engagement really does help us out and it helps other people find the show. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes and we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.
