The Rundown – Jobs Report Blows Past Forecasts, Ford Hit with $900M Tariff Shock

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: February 11, 2026
Podcast: The Rundown by Public.com
Episode Focus: An energetic recap of key market moves, economic data, and company earnings—highlighting AI-driven volatility in finance, Ford’s tariff surprise, earnings from Lyft, big moves in electric aviation, and a look at Americans’ sentiment on the economy.

Main Theme

The episode explores the intersection of fast-paced AI disruption, surprising macroeconomic data, and high-profile earnings updates. The host discusses how rapid developments in artificial intelligence are destabilizing market sentiment, offers a deep dive into Ford’s costly earnings miss, discusses investor tensions in the media sector, and wraps up with a snapshot of consumer sentiment and stock movers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Recap & AI Panic in Finance

• Market Movement:

  • S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.6% ([00:30])
  • Financial sector led the dip due to AI-related fears.

• AI Disruption in Finance:

  • “A fintech company called Altruist announced a new AI tool that can create personal personalized tax strategies and interpret financial statements. Basically, it can do what an entire team of financial advisors currently do, but for much cheaper.” ([00:50])
  • Result: Stocks like Charles Schwab and Raymond James suffered steep drops (over 7%), their “worst day in years.”
  • Host’s take: Current market has a “sell first, ask questions later mentality” with AI headlines leading to “overreaction” ([01:15])
  • Quote: “Anytime there’s a new AI tool announced, investors are freaking out. Now I think it’s a bit of an overreaction, but things are changing so fast with AI and that’s leading to uncertainty.” ([01:20])
  • Host embraces volatility: “It keeps things interesting and it creates opportunities to buy the dip.” ([01:35])

2. January Jobs Report: Unexpected Strength & Backward Revisions

• Headline Data:
  • 130,000 jobs added in January—Wall Street expected just 55,000 ([02:00])
  • Unemployment fell to 4.3% from 4.4%
• Revisions:
  • Prior years revised downward:
    • 2024: Only 1.2 million jobs added (was 2 million)
    • 2025: Only 181,000 jobs (was 584,000)
• Interpretation:
  • Labor market was weaker last year than believed, but is “stabilizing heading into 2026.”
  • Fed Outlook:
    • Likely to delay rate cuts due to strong January data.
    • Upcoming CPI inflation report on Friday will be crucial.
  • Quote: “So the labor market was way weaker last year than we thought. But things seem to be stabilizing heading into 2026. And I wonder what the Fed’s gonna do now.” ([02:50])

3. Company Spotlight: Ford Grapples with Tariffs and EV Losses

• Q4 Earnings Miss:
  • Ford earned 13 cents per share (expected 19 cents) ([04:00])
  • Biggest quarterly miss in four years.
• $900 Million Tariff Shock:
  • Ford miscalculated benefit from new tariff relief rules; surprise $900m tariff cost added to bill at year’s end ([04:30])
  • “Ford assumed this would retroactively apply … but then … the credits would only apply starting in November. Ford was not expecting that. And that added another $900 million to Ford’s tariff bill last year.” ([04:50])
  • In total, Ford paid $2B in tariffs in 2025.
• Restructuring / EV Setbacks:
  • $19.5 billion charge to scale back EV business.
  • $8.2B net loss in 2025—worst since 2008.
  • CFO says losses on EVs expected “until 2029.”
• Stock Surges Despite Bad News:
  • “Despite reporting those terrible Q4 numbers, Ford stock is actually up this morning because they gave a pretty optimistic guidance for 2026.” ([05:55])
  • Ford expects 2026 earnings of $8-10B, banking on higher truck and SUV sales thanks to loosened fuel economy rules.

4. Mergers & Activist Pressure: Netflix/Warner/Paramount Saga

• Deal Turmoil:
  • Activist investor Ancora Holdings (small but vocal) has built a stake and is pressuring Warner Bros. to abandon proposed $72B Netflix deal and merge with Paramount instead ([06:45])
  • Ancora believes Paramount deal is “better because it’s more money, it’s for the entire company and not just the streamer. It’ll have less antitrust hurdles to close…” ([07:30])
• Regulatory & Leadership Drama:
  • Netflix faces regulatory scrutiny; CEO David Zaslav rumored to be eyeing personal benefit via Netflix role if deal closes.
  • “David Zaslav will receive up to $500 million in compensation if the Netflix deal closes.” ([08:05])
  • Host doubts deal closes this year; personally roots for HBO bundling to save money.

5. Stock Movers: Electric Aviation & Ride-Sharing

• Beta Technologies Soars:
  • Shares jump 20% after SEC filing reveals Amazon owns 5%.
  • Beta’s focus: Electric planes with vertical takeoff/landing; stock was down 41% post-IPO but surges after positive coverage and the Amazon headline.
  • “What’s funny is that this isn’t even new news. Amazon originally invested in Beta back in 2021, but maybe the SEC filing reminded investors…” ([09:10])
• Lyft Tanks:
  • Q4 revenue growth just 3% (vs Uber’s 20%).
  • Weak rider numbers; disappointing Q1 guidance.
  • $1B share buyback fails to prop up market mood (“It didn’t.”)
  • Lyft stock down more than 15% this morning ([10:20])
  • Investors not buying “year of the AV” (autonomous vehicles) pitch for 2026.

6. Consumer Sentiment: Poll Results

• Gallup Poll Data:
  • 50% of Americans think the market will go up, 25% think down in next 6 months ([11:10])
  • 49% expect economic growth to improve; 36% think it’ll worsen.
  • Mixed Signals:
    • 62% believe inflation will rise
    • 50% expect unemployment to rise
  • “The poll is sending mixed signals. People want to feel bullish, but they’re also worried about inflation and the labor market.” ([12:00])
  • Host notes party divide in responses and takes polling with a grain of salt.

Notable Quotes

• “Basically, it [Altruist’s AI tool] can do what an entire team of financial advisors currently do, but for much cheaper.” ([00:58])
• “Anytime there’s a new AI tool announced, investors are freaking out. Now, I think it’s a bit of an overreaction, but things are changing so fast with AI and that’s leading to uncertainty. And that’s why we’re having all this volatility.” ([01:20])
• “Ford reported $8.2 billion in net losses for 2025. That’s their worst since the Great Recession in 2008.” ([05:20])
• [On the Netflix/Warner CEO] “David Zaslav will receive up to $500 million in compensation if the Netflix deal closes. So yeah, we’ll see what happens.” ([08:05])
• “Lyft stock is down more than 15% this morning at the time of this recording.” ([10:25])
• “The optimism is heavily split along party lines. Republicans are overwhelmingly bullish, and Democrats are much more pessimistic. And, you know, that’s one reason why I don’t put too much weight into these polls anymore.” ([12:40])

Timeline of Key Segments

• 00:30 – 01:40: Market downturn & AI panic in finance sector
• 02:00 – 02:55: January jobs report and implications for the Fed
• 04:00 – 06:07: Ford’s earnings miss, tariff shock, and EV pullback
• 06:45 – 08:30: Warner/Netflix/Paramount merger saga & activist pressures
• 09:00 – 10:25: Beta Technologies’ stock surge; Lyft’s post-earnings crash
• 11:10 – 12:40: American economic sentiment: Gallup poll breakdown

Tone & Style

Zaid Admani shares news with a conversational, slightly irreverent style, injecting personal opinions and relatable humor ("Let’s shift gears, no pun intended"; “I just want HBO bundled with Netflix”). The episode blends serious analysis with an accessible, energetic manner, designed for busy, retail-focused investors.