The Rundown – December 22, 2025

Host: Zaid Admani
Episode: Larry Ellison Backs Paramount’s Bid for WBD, Nvidia to Ship H200 Chips to China by February

Episode Overview

This episode covers:

• The near all-time-high performance of major U.S. stock indices as 2025 draws to a close, with speculation about a potential "Santa Claus rally"
• A dramatic development in Paramount’s bid to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD), now backed by a personal guarantee from Oracle founder Larry Ellison
• Nvidia’s plans to resume high-end AI chip shipments to China after regulatory changes under the Trump administration
• Key stock movers: Rocket Lab’s record government contract and Honeywell’s settlement-driven share slump
• A quick look at the box office performance of the new “Avatar: Fire and Ash” movie

Stock Market Update & Santa Claus Rally

[00:00–02:24]

• The market rallied on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq up 1.4%.
• Both indices are within 1% of all-time highs heading into the new year.
• Santa Claus rally: Refers to the market’s historic tendency to rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two days of January, averaging a 1.3% gain since the 1950s.
  • "If we finish the year at all time highs, it would be a fitting end to an absolutely wild 2025." — Zaid Admani [01:15]
  • Volume is expected to be light this week due to the holidays.
  • Reminder: U.S. markets close early Wednesday (Christmas Eve) and are closed Thursday (Christmas).

Paramount’s Hostile Bid for Warner Brothers Discovery

[02:25–04:40]

• Background: Last week, WBD’s board rejected Paramount’s original bid and favored Netflix due to doubts over Paramount’s financial backing.
• New Development: Oracle founder Larry Ellison is personally guaranteeing $40B in equity financing for Paramount’s revised offer.
  • "The best way I can explain this is like the old Paramount bid was like a 22 year old kid with rich parents...now, we need your dad to co-sign the lease, so he's legally on the hook. And that's essentially what this revised Paramount bid does." — Zaid Admani [03:51]
• Ellison’s guarantee is viewed by the market as a game-changer — WBD shares rose 4% pre-market.
• Paramount’s revised bid: $30/share, challenging Netflix’s competing offer.
• Memorable moment: "David Ellison is having his daddy co-sign a $100 billion takeover of a media company. So yeah, you know what, it's pretty much the same thing." — Zaid Admani [04:30]

Nvidia’s AI Chip Shipments to China

[04:41–06:08]

• Nvidia plans to restart H200 AI chip shipments to China as early as February.
  • H200 is Nvidia’s second-most powerful chip, about six times the power of the export-compliant H20 chip.
• Chinese tech giants (Alibaba, ByteDance) want H200s, as local chipmakers can’t match Nvidia’s capabilities.
• Regulatory landscape:
  • The move marks a shift from Biden-era restrictions to a more open approach under President Trump.
  • U.S. government will take a 25% cut of China sales due to a deal with the administration.
• Policy moment: "Resuming these high end AI chip exports to China is a major departure from the Biden era policy that banned advanced AI chips over concerns that the technology would supercharge China's military." — Zaid Admani [05:42]
• Initial shipment: 40,000–80,000 chips from inventory, with further production capacity planned for Q2 2026.
• Regulatory review still ongoing; President Trump has final say.

Stock Movers: Rocket Lab & Honeywell

[06:09–07:40]

• Rocket Lab:
  • Won an $816 million U.S. Space Force contract for 18 missile tracking and defense satellites.
  • Shares jumped 18% on Friday, and another 4% pre-market.
  • "[Rocket Lab] is often talked about as a SpaceX competitor...they launch rockets into space. The company has completed nearly 80 launches since 2018." — Zaid Admani [06:48]
• Honeywell:
  • Shares dipped 2% pre-market after the company took a $470 million charge to settle a lawsuit with Flexjet over aircraft engine maintenance.
  • The lawsuit and resulting settlement cut into Honeywell’s full-year profit outlook.

Box Office: Avatar: Fire and Ash

[07:41–09:07]

• Opening weekend: $88 million US box office (below $120 million expectations), but pattern tracks previous Avatar films.
  • "The first Avatar movie...only made $77 million at the domestic box office, but the movie had staying power and went on to become the highest-grossing movie of all time." — Zaid Admani [08:15]
  • International performance is strong: $257 million globally, including $60 million in China.
  • 2/3 of U.S. tickets sold are premium IMAX/Dolby seats.
• Personal note: Zaid admits finding the movie’s length (over 3.5 hours) daunting as a parent, but is impressed with early numbers.
  • "Honestly, I'm impressed this movie's already putting up these kind of numbers because the movie is nearly three and a half hours long." — Zaid Admani [08:55]

Notable Quotes

• On the Santa Claus rally:
  "If we finish the year at all time highs, it would be a fitting end to an absolutely wild 2025." [01:15]
• On Larry Ellison's backing:
  "David Ellison is having his daddy co-sign a $100 billion takeover of a media company." [04:30]
• On Nvidia's China deal:
  "Resuming these high end AI chip exports to China is a major departure from the Biden era policy..." [05:42]

Key Timestamps

• Market/Santa Claus rally: [00:00–02:24]
• Paramount–WBD saga: [02:25–04:40]
• Nvidia China chip news: [04:41–06:08]
• Rocket Lab/Honeywell movers: [06:09–07:40]
• Avatar box office: [07:41–09:07]

This episode provided timely insights into year-end markets, headline M&A drama, major tech trade shifts, and cultural touchstones relevant to investors—presented accessibly and with a light, relatable touch.