The Rundown – July 31, 2025

Meta & Microsoft Crush Earnings, Figma to Make Trading Debut
Host: Zaid Admani (Public.com)
Length: ~10 minutes

Episode Overview

In today’s episode, Zaid Admani covers a busy market day, highlighting:

• The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting and its unexpectedly hawkish tone
• Blowout earnings and AI investments from Meta and Microsoft
• The highly anticipated Figma IPO debut
• Major movers: Carvana and ARM
• A notable shift in smartphone exports from China to India

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Markets React to Fed Meeting

[00:09–01:46]

• The S&P 500 dipped 0.1%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.1% after an initially strong start thanks to unexpectedly strong Q2 GDP data (3% growth vs. 2.3% expected).

• Sentiment reversed following the Federal Reserve’s post-meeting press conference.

  “By the afternoon, Jerome Powell took the mic, which sent the markets into the red.” — Zaid Admani [00:35]

• The Fed left rates unchanged, but Powell adopted an unexpectedly hawkish tone, providing no signal for a rate cut in September. Instead, he emphasized a “wait and see” stance amidst tariff uncertainty.

• Powell stood out for saying the current interest rate is not considered restrictive.

  “The Fed doesn’t think the current interest rate level is restrictive or holding back the economy.” — Zaid Admani summarizing Powell [01:07]

• Markets downgraded expectations for a September rate cut to 50% (from 60%).

2. Meta’s Earnings: AI Pivot Pays Off

[01:47–04:09]

• Meta beat Q2 expectations on every metric:

  • Revenue up 22% to $47B (est. $44B)
  • Profits up 36% to $18B

• The core advertising business remains robust, with AI cited as a key driver.

  “CEO Mark Zuckerberg credits the company’s investments in AI for unlocking gains in their ad business.” — Zaid Admani [02:41]

• Massive AI infrastructure push:

  • $72B in 2025 capex, mainly for data centers and AI.

• Meta’s AI “super intelligence team” is hiring with “nine-figure NBA-sized contracts.”

• Meta stock leaped over 10%, nearing $800/share (was under $100 in 2022).

  “Shout out to Zuck and shout out to everyone that’s been buying up Meta stock since 2022, when it was trading under $100 at one point, because today it’s nearing $800.” — Zaid Admani [03:43]

• Despite this, Reality Labs (Metaverse) continues to lose billions—Q2 loss: $4.5B, cumulative since 2020: ~$70B.

• Zaid credits Zuckerberg for pivoting from the “Metaverse flop” to AI.

3. Microsoft: Azure & AI Drive Record Results

[04:10–05:44]

• Azure cloud revenue +39% (vs. 34% expected), disclosed at $75B for the first time.

• Net income up 24% YoY, topping $27B for Q2.

• AI investments soaring: Q2 capex $24B (+27% YoY); next quarter forecasted to top $30B (+50% YoY).

• 2025 AI infrastructure spend estimated over $120B, focused on long-term assets (data centers).

• Stock surged nearly 9% on the news; Microsoft is poised to join Nvidia in the $4T market cap club.

  “The demand for AI compute is still outpacing supply and as a result, Microsoft stock is up nearly 9% this morning.” — Zaid Admani [05:32]

4. Figma’s Blockbuster IPO

[05:45–06:47]

• Collaborative design platform Figma begins trading today at $33/share, valuing it at $19B (close to Adobe’s abandoned $20B offer in 2022).
• IPO was “40x oversubscribed”—double demand of Circle and Chime IPOs earlier this year (per Bloomberg).
• High anticipation suggests a valuation above $20B on day one.
• Ticker: FIG (“kind of surprised that ticker was still available”).

5. Stock Movers: Carvana & ARM

[06:48–08:02]

Carvana

• Posted record used car sales; revenues +42%, net income up 6x.

• Profits stem mostly from loan sales ($274M out of $308M profit).

• Carvana, despite short seller skepticism, is up 15% today, and over 10,000% since 2022 lows.

  “Honestly, Carvana is like a meme stock that never stopped memeing. It just keeps going up.” — Zaid Admani [07:34]

ARM

• ARM shares slid 8% on weak revenue and soft guidance.
• Lower smartphone demand pressured ARM’s royalty revenues.
• ARM is investing heavily in its own chips, creating short-term profit strain.

6. Fun Fact: Shift in Smartphone Exports – India Overtakes China

[08:03–09:01]

• India now supplies 44% of U.S. smartphone imports (up from 13% YoY); China’s share dropped to 25% (down from 60%+).

• The main driver: U.S. tariffs are much higher for China than India.

• Uncertainty remains, as Trump threatens new tariffs on India.

  “The biggest reason for this shift is tariffs. Currently there’s a higher tariff rate on imports from China to the U.S. compared to India.” — Zaid Admani [08:25]

• Apple and other OEMs might soon feel pressure to re-engineer supply chains. Apple’s earnings are due tonight, with possible tariff commentary expected.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Meta’s AI pivot:

  “You gotta hand it to Zuck. When he went all in on the Metaverse a few years ago, he got clowned on big time… But he successfully pivoted the company to AI.” — Zaid Admani [03:12]

• On Carvana:

  “Carvana is like a meme stock that never stopped memeing.” — Zaid Admani [07:34]

• On demand for Figma’s IPO:

  “Bloomberg says their offering was 40x oversubscribed, which is twice as much interest as Circle and Chime saw during their IPO window earlier this year.” — Zaid Admani [06:24]

Key Timestamps

• 00:09–01:46: Fed meeting recap & market impact
• 01:47–04:09: Meta earnings and AI strategy
• 04:10–05:44: Microsoft earnings and AI investment
• 05:45–06:47: Figma IPO preview
• 06:48–07:34: Carvana’s rally
• 07:35–08:02: ARM’s downturn
• 08:03–09:01: India passes China in U.S. smartphone exports

Tone & Style

Zaid Admani delivers news with a conversational, upbeat, and slightly irreverent tone, using phrases like “shout out to Zuck” and “meme stock that never stopped memeing” to emphasize points and maintain engagement, while distilling complex topics into sharp, actionable commentary for investors and market-watchers.