The Rundown: Meta Pops, Microsoft Slides, Tesla Bets Big on Robots
Host: Zaid Admani
Date: January 29, 2026
Episode Overview
In this fast-paced episode, Zaid Admani from Public.com gives a crisp yet insightful market recap, focusing on the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, turbulent tech earnings for Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta, and notable moves in the airline and casino sectors. Admani also delivers a striking stat about Apple's recent losing streak, tying together investor sentiment, AI spending, and changing business models in large-cap US stocks.
Key Topics and Insights
1. Market Recap & Fed Meeting
Timestamps: 00:13 – 03:33
- S&P 500 Milestone: Briefly touched 7,000 for the first time ever but closed flat, down 0.01%. Nasdaq eked out a 0.2% gain.
- Federal Reserve: The highlight event of the week, but considered a "pretty boring" affair.
- “Honestly, it was kind of boring. As expected, the Fed did not cut interest rates, keeping the Fed funds rate in the range of 3.5 to 3.75%." (01:04)
- Powell Press Conference:
- Jerome Powell avoided contentious topics, “didn’t answer any spicy questions related to the DOJ criminal investigation or anything related to politics.” (01:30)
- Two dissenting governors wanted a rate cut, but most want to wait.
- Conclusion: “I don’t think the Fed will cut rates anytime soon unless the labor market starts showing signs of weakness again.” (02:06)
- Precious Metals Rally:
- Gold up over 25% YTD, silver up over 60%.
- Powell “basically shrugged off” the implications of the rally.
- Zaid: “Honestly, I was kind of surprised to hear that because it’s hard to ignore the metals rally at this point.” (03:00)
- Teased a future episode deep-diving on metals.
2. Tesla's Surprise Pivot to Robotics
Timestamps: 03:34 – 06:53
- Earnings Recap:
- 2025: First year ever with declining revenue (-3%), deliveries dropped 3 of 4 quarters, Q4 profits down 61% YoY.
- Headliner:
- Model S & X discontinued:
Production lines will now build “Optimus” humanoid robots. - “Elon is calling this an honorable discharge for the two vehicles which have been around for over a decade, but the reality is they just weren’t selling that much anymore.” (04:22)
- Model S & X: Only 3% of 2025 deliveries; Models 3 & Y: 97%.
- Model S & X discontinued:
- Strategic Shift:
- “Tesla is pivoting away from the car business and trying to become a full-on robotics and AI company.” (04:43)
- AI and Capital Spending:
- 2026 CapEx: $20 billion (more than double 2025) to retool for robots, expand robo-taxis, build AI infrastructure.
- $2 billion invested in xAI, Musk’s AI startup — despite a prior shareholder vote against it.
- Speculation: “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the future all of Elon’s companies like Tesla, SpaceX and xAI are all under one giant holding company.” (06:41)
- Stock Reaction:
- Shares rose 2% post-earnings but fell 1% by recording time.
3. Microsoft: Cloud Growth Concerns
Timestamps: 06:54 – 08:17
- Solid Headline Numbers:
- Revenue up 16% ($81.3B), profits up 60% ($38B).
- Investor Anxiety:
- Azure cloud growth slowing: “down from 40% last quarter…and forecasting just 37% next quarter.” (07:26)
- AI CapEx soared: $37.5B last quarter, +66% YoY, “well above what Wall Street was expecting.” (07:38)
- “Ramping up spending while cloud growth is slowing is freaking out investors.”
- Shares down over 10%: “Investors are finally starting to ask, when will all this AI spending pay off for the company?” (08:10)
4. Meta: AI-Powered Ad Revenues Drive Stock Higher
Timestamps: 08:18 – 09:29
- Earnings Blowout:
- Revenue up 24% ($59.9B), profits up 9% ($22.8B), both beat estimates.
- Q1 guidance: $53.5–56.5B (versus ~$51B consensus).
- AI Pays Off:
- AI investments are delivering “better ad targeting, better content recommendation, which is keeping people on Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp longer…all translating to more ad revenue.” (08:53)
- CapEx plans: $115–135B for 2026, nearly double 2025 and +20% vs. Wall St expectations.
- “Meta stock is up around 7%…because Meta showed that their investment in AI is actually leading to more ad revenue. Microsoft didn’t, and their stock is taking a big hit.” (09:26)
5. Notable Movers: Airlines & Casinos
Timestamps: 09:30 – 10:44
Southwest Airlines
- Rally on Forecast:
- Surged 5% after raising profit forecast for 2026: $4/share (vs. $3.19 expected; more than quadruple 2025 earnings).
- Business transformation: Ended open seating, started charging for assigned/premium seats and checked bags.
- “Flyers might not love those changes, but all of that has led to the company making more money.” (10:08)
Las Vegas Sands
- Shares Down 7%:
- Missed earnings in core Macau business (Macau is “actually a bigger gambling market than Vegas”).
- Largely Asian business after selling all Vegas properties in 2022.
6. Apple’s Historic Losing Streak (& AI’s Ripple Effects)
Timestamps: 10:45 – End
- 8-week Stock Drop:
- “Apple stock has dropped for eight consecutive weeks, which is the longest weekly losing streak for the company since 1993.” (11:00)
- Concern: Soaring memory prices (amid AI data center demand), which make up 10–20% of hardware costs, could squeeze Apple’s margins or force price hikes.
- All eyes on Apple’s earnings dropping after the market close.
Most Memorable Quotes
- “Honestly, it was kind of boring. As expected, the Fed did not cut interest rates, keeping the Fed funds rate in the range of 3.5 to 3.75%.”
— Zaid Admani, [01:04] - “Elon is calling this an honorable discharge for the two vehicles…but the reality is they just weren’t selling that much anymore.”
— Zaid Admani, [04:22] - “Tesla is pivoting away from the car business and trying to become a full-on robotics and AI company.”
— Zaid Admani, [04:43] - “Ramping up spending while cloud growth is slowing is freaking out investors.”
— Zaid Admani, [07:43] - “Meta showed that their investment in AI is actually leading to more ad revenue. Microsoft didn’t, and their stock is taking a big hit.”
— Zaid Admani, [09:26] - “Apple stock has dropped for eight consecutive weeks, which is the longest weekly losing streak for the company since 1993.”
— Zaid Admani, [11:00]
Timeline of Major Segments
| Section | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------|---------------| | Market Recap & Fed Meeting | 00:13–03:33 | | Tesla's Robotics Pivot | 03:34–06:53 | | Microsoft: Cloud & AI Spend | 06:54–08:17 | | Meta: AI’s Tangible Ad Results | 08:18–09:29 | | Notable Movers (Southwest, Las Vegas Sands) | 09:30–10:44 | | Apple’s Losing Streak / Memory Prices | 10:45–end |
Summary Takeaways
- Investors are reacting strongly to capital expenditures on AI—rewarding companies where AI is visibly driving financial results (Meta), punishing those where payoffs remain abstract (Microsoft, Tesla).
- Major industry pivots (Tesla’s shift from legacy cars to humanoid robots) are shaking up sector boundaries.
- Market volatility—across tech, airlines, and casinos—underscores how business model transformations and global dynamics (e.g., memory prices, Macau gaming) are affecting stock prices.
- All eyes now turn to Apple's earnings as a bellwether for tech resilience amid input cost pressures and shifting digital priorities.