The Rundown – December 19, 2025

Host: Zaid Admani
Theme: Nike Tanks After Warning of Sales Drop, TikTok Signs Deal for U.S. Joint Venture

Episode Overview

Today's episode focuses on major stock market movers and key economic developments impacting investors, spotlighting Nike’s post-earnings selloff and TikTok’s high-stakes U.S. joint venture. Host Zaid Admani also highlights notable stock movements in AI and real estate, and ends with a compelling piece of S&P 500 trivia.

Market Recap & CPI Impact

[01:00 – 02:30]

• CPI Surprise:

  • November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%
  • Resulted in a market rally: S&P 500 up 0.8%, Nasdaq up 1.4%
  • Quote:

    "The latest report showed that inflation in November was 2.7%, which was way lower than the 3.1% that economists were expecting. So it was a nice early Christmas gift for the markets." (01:16, Zaid Admani)

• Caveat from Economists:

  • November’s government shutdown disrupted Bureau of Labor Statistics data, leading to concerns about report reliability
  • Despite skepticism, markets responded enthusiastically

• Holiday Trading Note:

  • Trading volume expected to slow due to the holidays and limited data releases
  • Show schedule for the podcast will change in line with market closures

Nike Earnings: Profits Up, Outlook Down

[03:15 – 05:25]

• Quarterly Results:

  • Nike beat revenue and profit expectations; revenues up 1%
  • The issue: Negative guidance for upcoming quarter

• Key Concerns:

  • Nike warns sales will fall in “low single digits” next quarter
  • North America: Sales up 9% (core market showing growth)
  • China: Revenues down 17%, much worse than expected — particularly in footwear ($250M+ sales drop)
  • Heavy inventory, forced discounting, and declining margins

• Tariffs:

  • U.S. tariffs cutting into Nike’s margins by ~$1.5 billion/year

• Investor Sentiment:

  • "Nike CEO Elliot Hill, who took over a year ago to lead Nike's turnaround, says that Nike is in the 'middle innings' of the comeback. But I mean, that's exactly the issue here. Investors have been waiting for the turnaround to show up in the numbers and it looks like they're going to have to wait a bit longer." (05:05, Zaid Admani)
  • Nike stock down over 10% pre-market

TikTok & ByteDance: U.S. Joint Venture

[05:26 – 06:40]

• The Deal:

  • TikTok/ByteDance announced a binding agreement to separate U.S. operations
  • New U.S. TikTok venture majority-owned by American investors (Oracle, Silver Lake, MGX), each with 15% stake; ByteDance retains 20%
  • U.S. entity will control data security, content moderation, algorithm oversight

• Law & Legislative Gaps:

  • Although the algorithm will be licensed from ByteDance, structural loopholes may still fail to address core legislative concerns surrounding foreign influence and data access
  • "Despite TikTok US being an independent company, this deal structure might not meet the law that banned TikTok in the first place." (06:28, Zaid Admani)

• Timeline & Uncertainty:

  • Deal expected to close by January 22, but subject to final approval from China's government
  • Positive reaction: Oracle stock up 5% in pre-market trading

Other Major Movers

CoreWeave Joins 'Genesis Mission'

[06:41 – 07:30]

• Announcement:
  • AI data center firm CoreWeave will participate in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Genesis Mission to enhance scientific research with AI
  • Genesis Mission likened to a "modern day Manhattan Project for AI"
• Company Context:
  • Follows CoreWeave's recent launch of a government-focused business unit
  • After a steep decline since October, the deal sparks hopes of a rebound: "CoreWeave stock is up more than 5% this morning..." (07:20, Zaid Admani)

KB Homes Slumps on Weak Housing Market

[07:31 – 08:16]

• Report:
  • Despite beating earnings, KB Homes suffers from a 37% YoY plunge in backlog (now $1.4B), lower margins
  • High mortgage rates and affordability are curbing demand; forced incentives are eating into profits
  • "People just aren't buying homes. And because it's just too expensive.” (08:10, Zaid Admani)
  • KB stock down roughly 6% pre-market

Fun Fact: Nvidia Replaces Enron in the S&P 500

[08:17 – 09:30]

• Story:

  • After Enron’s collapse in 2001, Nvidia was added to the S&P 500
  • In retrospect, this decision dramatically boosted index returns; Nvidia has returned 1,000x since then

• Memorable Quote:

  • "It might be one of the best decisions they've ever made because Nvidia stock has gone up a thousand x since being added to the S&P… it is funny that all these years later Nvidia's accounting practices are now coming into question to the point where Nvidia had to put out a memo stating that they weren't Enron." (09:00, Zaid Admani)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Some economists are taking yesterday's CPI report with a grain of salt. But not the stock market though. It was ripping yesterday." (01:45)
• "Nike stock is down more than 10% this morning in pre market trading." (05:20)
• "This deal [TikTok] is expected to close by January 22 but the Chinese government still has to approve this deal as well. So this deal could fall apart in the last minute if Beijing decides to block it." (06:30)
• "Just like with other AI companies, investors are worried about the heavy debt load... So maybe this Genesis mission announcement will help spark a bounce back rally." (07:27)
• "If you've invested in the S&P 500 after November of 2001, you've had exposure to Nvidia." (09:06)

Episode Flow Highlights

• Market backdrop and CPI effects establish the context for company news
• Deep dives into Nike and TikTok, balancing investor and regulatory perspectives
• Quick pivots into other movers: CoreWeave’s AI win and KB’s housing woes
• Ends with a light-hearted knowledge nugget on S&P 500 history, tying the past to the present

This summary covers the informative segments and leaves out ads and general housekeeping. It retains Zaid’s analytical yet conversational tone, making the recap both accessible and useful for listeners and non-listeners alike.